Search results for: rutting prediction

Authors: Ali Zain Ul Abadeen, Arshad Hussain

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Roads are considered as the national capital, and huge developmental budget is spent on its construction, maintenance, and rehabilitation. Due to proliferating traffic volume, heavier loads and challenging environmental factors, the need for high-performance asphalt pavement is increased. In this research, the asphalt mixture was modified with carbon nanotubes ranging from 0.2% to 2% of binder to study the effect of CNT modification on rutting potential and fatigue life of asphalt mixtures. During this study, the conventional and modified asphalt mixture was subjected to a uni-axial dynamic creep test and dry Hamburg wheel tracking test to study rutting resistance. Fatigue behavior of asphalt mixture was studied using a four-point bending test apparatus. The plateau value of asphalt mixture was taken as a measure of fatigue performance according to the ratio of dissipated energy approach. Results of these experiments showed that CNT modified asphalt mixtures had reduced rut depth and increased rutting and fatigue resistance at higher percentages of carbon nanotubes.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, fatigue, four point bending test, modified asphalt, rutting

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Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

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This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Sittampalam Manoharan, Gary Chai, Sanaul Chowdhury, Andrew Golding

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The primary objective of this paper is to present a simplified approach to develop the structural deterioration model using traffic speed deflectometer data for flexible pavements. Maintaining assets to meet functional performance is not economical or sustainable in the long terms, and it would end up needing much more investments for road agencies and extra costs for road users. Performance models have to be included for structural and functional predicting capabilities, in order to assess the needs, and the time frame of those needs. As such structural modelling plays a vital role in the prediction of pavement performance. A structural condition is important for the prediction of remaining life and overall health of a road network and also major influence on the valuation of road pavement. Therefore, the structural deterioration model is a critical input into pavement management system for predicting pavement rehabilitation needs accurately. The Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD) is a vehicle-mounted Doppler laser system that is capable of continuously measuring the structural bearing capacity of a pavement whilst moving at traffic speeds. The device’s high accuracy, high speed, and continuous deflection profiles are useful for network-level applications such as predicting road rehabilitations needs and remaining structural service life. The methodology adopted in this model by utilizing time series TSD maximum deflection (D0) data in conjunction with rutting, rutting progression, pavement age, subgrade strength and equivalent standard axle (ESA) data. Then, regression analyses were undertaken to establish a correlation equation of structural deterioration as a function of rutting, pavement age, seal age and equivalent standard axle (ESA). This study developed a simple structural deterioration model which will enable to incorporate available TSD structural data in pavement management system for developing network-level pavement investment strategies. Therefore, the available funding can be used effectively to minimize the whole –of- life cost of the road asset and also improve pavement performance. This study will contribute to narrowing the knowledge gap in structural data usage in network level investment analysis and provide a simple methodology to use structural data effectively in investment decision-making process for road agencies to manage aging road assets.

Keywords: adjusted structural number (SNP), maximum deflection (D0), equant standard axle (ESA), traffic speed deflectometer (TSD)

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Authors: Prince Igor Itoua, Daquan Sun, Shihui Shen

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This study aimed at investigating the properties of asphalt and mix asphalt based on the effects of waste toner sources (WT1 and WT2) with 8% dosage waste toner powders (WT). The test results included penetration, softening points, ductility, G*sinδ, G*/sinδ, Ideal cracking test(IDEAL-CT), and Ideal shear rutting test(IDEAL-RT). The results showed that the base binder with WT2 had a significantly higher viscosity value compared to the WT1 modified binder, and thus, higher energy for mixing and compaction is needed. Fur-thermore, the results of penetration, softening points, G*sinδ, and G*/sinδ were all affected by waste toner type. In terms of asphalt mixture, the IDEAL-RT test revealed that the addition of waste toner improved the rutting resistance of the asphalt mixture regardless of toner type. Further, CTindex values for waste toner-modified asphalt mixtures show no significant difference. Above all, WT-modified asphalt mixtures produced by the wet process have better rutting performance.

Keywords: waste toner, waste toner modified asphalt, asphalt mixture properties, IDEAL-RT test, IDEAL-CT test

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Authors: Kamalpreet Kaur, Renu Dhir

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Climate prediction is an essential component of climate research, which helps evaluate possible effects on economies, communities, and ecosystems. Climate prediction involves short-term weather prediction, seasonal prediction, and long-term climate change prediction. Climate prediction can use the information gathered from satellites, ground-based stations, and ocean buoys, among other sources. The paper's four architectures, such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception, have been combined using an ensemble approach for overall performance and robustness. An ensemble of different models makes a prediction, and the majority vote determines the final prediction. The various architectures such as ResNet50, VGG19, Inception-v3, and Xception efficiently classify the dataset RSI-CB256, which contains satellite images into cloudy and non-cloudy. The generated ensembled S-E model (Sar-ensembled model) provides an accuracy of 99.25%.

Keywords: climate, satellite images, prediction, classification

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Authors: Liseane Padilha Thives, Mayara S. S. Lima, João Victor Staub De Melo, Glicério Trichês

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Red mud is a waste resulting from the processing of bauxite to alumina, the raw material of the production of aluminum. The large quantity of red mud generated and inadequately disposed in the environment has motivated researchers to develop methods for reinsertion of this waste into the productive cycle. This work aims to evaluate the resistance to permanent deformation of dense asphalt mixtures with red mud filler. The red mud was characterized by tests of X-ray diffraction, fluorescence, specific mass, laser granulometry, pH and scanning electron microscopy. For the analysis of the influence of the quantity of red mud in the mechanical performance of asphalt mixtures, a total filler content of 7% was established. Asphalt mixtures with 3%, 5% and 7% red mud were produced. A conventional mixture with 7% stone powder filler was used as reference. The asphalt mixtures were evaluated for performance to permanent deformation in the French Rutting Tester (FRT) traffic simulator. The mixture with 5% red mud presented greater resistance to permanent deformation with rutting depth at 30,000 cycles of 3.50%. The asphalt mixtures with red mud presented better performance, with reduction of the rutting of 12.63 to 42.62% in relation to the reference mixture. This study confirmed the viability of reinserting the red mud in the production chain and possible usage in the construction industry. The red mud as filler in asphalt mixtures is a reuse option of this waste and mitigation of the disposal problems, as well as being an environmentally friendly alternative.

Keywords: asphalt mixtures, permanent deformation, red mud, pavements

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: Hussain Al-Baghli

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The Hamburg Wheel Tracking Test (HWTT) was conducted to evaluate the resistance to moisture damage of two asphalt mixtures: an optimized rubberized asphalt mixture and an HMA mix with anti-stripping additives. The mixtures were subjected to varying numbers of moisture conditioning cycles and then tested for rutting depth. The results showed that the optimized rubberized asphalt mixture met the requirements for medium to heavy traffic in accordance with Kuwait's Ministry of Public Works specification. The number of moisture conditioning cycles did not significantly impact rutting development for the rubberized asphalt. The HMA asphalt samples showed a significant reduction in strength and did not satisfy the HWTT criteria after the moisture conditioning cycles.

Keywords: rubberized asphalt, Hamburg wheel tracking, antistripping, moisture conditioning

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to developed an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: river flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation

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Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, random forest, molecular descriptors, maccs keys

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Authors: Fouzieh Rouzmehr, Mehdi Mousavi

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Hot mix asphalt concrete (HMAC) is a mixture of aggregates and bitumen. The primary ingredient that determines the mechanical properties of HMAC is the bitumen in it, which displays viscoelastic behavior under normal service conditions. For simplicity, asphalt concrete is considered an elastic material, but this is far from reality at high service temperatures and longer loading times. Viscoelasticity means that the material's stress-strain relationship depends on the strain rate and loading duration. The goal of this paper is to simulate the mechanical response of flexible pavements using linear elastic and viscoelastic modeling of asphalt concrete and predict pavement performance. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) load will be simulated and the results for elastic and viscoelastic modeling will be evaluated. The viscoelastic simulation is performed by the Prony series, which will be modeled by using ANSYS software. Inflexible pavement design, tensile strain at the bottom of the surface layer and compressive strain at the top of the last layer plays an important role in the structural response of the pavement and they will imply the number of loads for fatigue (Nf) and rutting (Nd) respectively. The differences of these two modelings are investigated on fatigue cracking and rutting problem, which are the two main design parameters in flexible pavement design. Although the differences in rutting problem between the two models were negligible, in fatigue cracking, the viscoelastic model results were more accurate. Results indicate that modeling the flexible pavement with elastic material is efficient enough and gives acceptable results.

Keywords: flexible pavement, asphalt, FEM, viscoelastic, elastic, ANSYS, modeling

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression

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Authors: M. Sirhan, S. Bekhor, A. Sidess

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In-service pavements deteriorate with time due to traffic wheel loads, environment, and climate conditions. Pavement deterioration leads to a reduction in their serviceability and structural behavior. Consequently, proper maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) are necessary actions to keep the in-service pavement network at the desired level of serviceability. Due to resource and financial constraints, the pavement management system (PMS) prioritizes roads most in need of maintenance and rehabilitation action. It recommends a suitable action for each pavement based on the performance and surface condition of each road in the network. The pavement performance and condition are usually quantified and evaluated by different types of roughness-based and stress-based indices. Examples of such indices are Pavement Serviceability Index (PSI), Pavement Serviceability Ratio (PSR), Mean Panel Rating (MPR), Pavement Condition Rating (PCR), Ride Number (RN), Profile Index (PI), International Roughness Index (IRI), and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). PCI is commonly used in PMS as an indicator of the extent of the distresses on the pavement surface. PCI values range between 0 and 100; where 0 and 100 represent a highly deteriorated pavement and a newly constructed pavement, respectively. The PCI value is a function of distress type, severity, and density (measured as a percentage of the total pavement area). PCI is usually calculated iteratively using the 'Paver' program developed by the US Army Corps. The use of soft computing techniques, especially Artificial Neural Network (ANN), has become increasingly popular in the modeling of engineering problems. ANN techniques have successfully modeled the performance of the in-service pavements, due to its efficiency in predicting and solving non-linear relationships and dealing with an uncertain large amount of data. Typical regression models, which require a pre-defined relationship, can be replaced by ANN, which was found to be an appropriate tool for predicting the different pavement performance indices versus different factors as well. Subsequently, the objective of the presented study is to develop and train an ANN model that predicts the PCI values. The model’s input consists of percentage areas of 11 different damage types; alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, block cracking, longitudinal/transverse cracking, edge cracking, shoving, raveling, potholes, patching, and lane drop off, at three severity levels (low, medium, high) for each. The developed model was trained using 536,000 samples and tested on 134,000 samples. The samples were collected and prepared by The National Transport Infrastructure Company. The predicted results yielded satisfactory compliance with field measurements. The proposed model predicted PCI values with relatively low standard deviations, suggesting that it could be incorporated into the PMS for PCI determination. It is worth mentioning that the most influencing variables for PCI prediction are damages related to alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, and potholes.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, computer programming, pavement condition index, pavement management, performance prediction

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

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In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: fault prediction, neural network, GM(1, 5) genetic algorithm, GBPGA

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Authors: João V. Staub de Melo, Glicério Trichês, Liseane P. Thives

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This paper presents the results of the development of asphalt nanocomposites containing carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with high resistance to permanent deformation, aiming to increase the performance of asphalt surfaces in relation to the rutting problem. Asphalt nanocomposites were prepared with the addition of different proportions of CNTs (1%, 2% and 3%) in relation to the weight of asphalt binder. The base binder used was a conventional binder (50-70 penetration) classified as PG 58-22. The optimum percentage of CNT addition in the asphalt binder (base) was determined through the evaluation of the rheological and empirical characteristics of the nanocomposites produced. In order to evaluate the contribution and the effects of the nanocomposite (optimized) in relation to the rutting, the conventional and nanomodified asphalt mixtures were tested in a French traffic simulator (Orniéreur). The results obtained demonstrate the efficient contribution of the asphalt nanocomposite containing CNTs to the resistance to permanent deformation of the asphalt mixture.

Keywords: asphalt nanocomposites, asphalt mixtures, carbon nanotubes, nanotechnology, permanent deformation

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon

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With the advent of IPTV in the fierce competition with existing broadcasting system, it is emerged as an important issue to predict how much the adoption of IPTV service will be. This paper aims to suggest a prediction model for adopting IPTV using classification and Ranking Belief Simplex (CaRBS). A simplex plot method of representing data allows a clear visual representation to the degree of interaction of the support from the variables to the prediction of the objects. CaRBS is applied to the survey data on the IPTV adoption.

Keywords: prediction, adoption, IPTV, CaRBS

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Authors: Mai Sirhan, Arieh Sidess

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Asphaltic mixture is a heterogeneous material composed of three main components: aggregates; bitumen and air voids. The professional experience and scientific literature categorize asphaltic mixture as a viscoelastic material, whose behavior is determined by temperature and loading rate. Properties characterization of the asphaltic mixture used under the service conditions is done by compacting and testing cylindric asphalt samples in the laboratory. These samples must resemble in a high degree internal structure of the mixture achieved in service, and the mechanical characteristics of the compacted asphalt layer in the pavement. The laboratory samples are usually compacted in temperatures between 140 and 160 degrees Celsius. In this temperature range, the asphalt has a low degree of strength. The laboratory samples are compacted using the dynamic or vibrational compaction methods. In the compaction process, the aggregates tend to align themselves in certain directions that lead to anisotropic behavior of the asphaltic mixture. This issue has been studied in the Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) research, that recommended using the gyratory compactor based on the assumption that this method is the best in mimicking the compaction in the service. In Israel, the Netivei Israel company is considering adopting the Gyratory Method as a replacement for the Marshall method used today. Therefore, the compatibility of the Gyratory Method for the use with Israeli asphaltic mixtures should be investigated. In this research, we aimed to examine the impact of the compaction method used on the mechanical characteristics of the asphaltic mixtures and to evaluate the degree of anisotropy in relation to the compaction method. In order to carry out this research, samples have been compacted in the vibratory and gyratory compactors. These samples were cylindrically cored both vertically (compaction wise) and horizontally (perpendicular to compaction direction). These models were tested under dynamic modulus and permanent deformation tests. The comparable results of the tests proved that: (1) specimens compacted by the vibratory compactor had higher dynamic modulus values than the specimens compacted by the gyratory compactor (2) both vibratory and gyratory compacted specimens had anisotropic behavior, especially in high temperatures. Also, the degree of anisotropy is higher in specimens compacted by the gyratory method. (3) Specimens compacted by the vibratory method that were cored vertically had the highest resistance to rutting. On the other hand, specimens compacted by the vibratory method that were cored horizontally had the lowest resistance to rutting. Additionally (4) these differences between the different types of specimens rise mainly due to the different internal arrangement of aggregates resulting from the compaction method. (5) Based on the initial prediction of the performance of the flexible pavement containing an asphalt layer having characteristics based on the results achieved in this research. It can be concluded that there is a significant impact of the compaction method and the degree of anisotropy on the strains that develop in the pavement, and the resistance of the pavement to fatigue and rutting defects.

Keywords: anisotropy, asphalt compaction, dynamic modulus, gyratory compactor, mechanical properties, permanent deformation, vibratory compactor

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Authors: Makara Rith, Young Kyu Kim, Seung Woo Lee

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In heavy duty areas, asphalt pavement constructed as entrance roadway may expose distresses such as cracking and rutting during service life. To mitigate these problems, composite pavement with a roller-compacted concrete base may be a good alternative; however, it should be initially investigated. Structural performances such as fatigue cracking and rut depth may be changed due to variation of some design factors. Therefore, this study focuses on the variation effect of material modulus, layer thickness and loading on composite pavement performances. Stress and strain at the critical location are determined and used as the input of transfer function for corresponding distresses to evaluate the pavement performance. Also, composite pavement satisfying the design criteria may be selected as a design section for heavy duty areas. Consequently, this investigation indicates that composite pavement has the ability to eliminate fatigue cracking in asphalt surfaces and significantly reduce rut depth. In addition, a thick or strong rigid base can significantly reduce rut depth and prolong fatigue life of this layer.

Keywords: composite pavement, ports, cracking, rutting

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Authors: Ashish Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar Suman

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This study investigated the influence of Cloisite-15A nanoclay on the physical, performance, and mechanical properties of bitumen binder. Cloisite-15A was blended in the bitumen in variegated percentages from 1% to 9% with increment of 2%. The blended bitumen was characterized using penetration, softening point, and dynamic viscosity using rotational viscometer, and compared with unmodified bitumen equally penetration grade 60/70. The rheological parameters were investigated using Dynamic Shear Rheometer (DSR), and mechanical properties were investigated by using Marshall Stability test. The results indicated an increase in softening point, dynamic viscosity and decrease in binder penetration. Rheological properties of bitumen increase complex modulus, decrease phase angle and improve rutting resistances as well. There was significant improvement in Marshall Stability, rather marginal improvement in flow value. The best improvement in the modified binder was obtained with 5% Cloisite-15A nanoclay.

Keywords: Cloisite-15A, complex shear modulus, phase angle, rutting resistance

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Authors: Maurice Ntahobari, Levin Kuhlmann, Mario Boley, Zhinoos Razavi Hesabi

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For machine learning based epileptic seizure prediction, it is important for the model to be implemented in small implantable or wearable devices that can be used to monitor epilepsy patients; however, current state-of-the-art methods are complex and computationally intensive. We use Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to find relevant intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) features and improve the computational efficiency of a state-of-the-art seizure prediction method based on the extra trees classifier while maintaining prediction performance. Results for a small contest dataset and a much larger dataset with continuous recordings of up to 3 years per patient from 15 patients yield better than chance prediction performance (p < 0.004). Moreover, while the performance of the SHAP-based model is comparable to that of the benchmark, the overall training and prediction time of the model has been reduced by a factor of 1.83. It can also be noted that the feature called zero crossing value is the best EEG feature for seizure prediction. These results suggest state-of-the-art seizure prediction performance can be achieved using efficient methods based on optimal feature selection.

Keywords: machine learning, seizure prediction, extra tree classifier, SHAP, epilepsy

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Authors: A. Chegenizadeh, M. Keramatikerman, H. Nikraz

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Bitumen is one of the most applicable materials in pavement engineering. It is a binding material with unique viscoelastic properties, especially when it mixes with polymer. In this study, to figure out the viscoelastic behaviour of the polymer modified with bitumen (PMB), a series of dynamic shearing rheological (DSR) tests were conducted. Four percentages of lime (i.e. 1%, 2%, 4% and 5%) were mixed with PMB and tested under four different temperatures including 64ºC, 70ºC, 76ºC and 82ºC. The results indicated that complex shearing modulus (G*) increased by increasing the frequency due to raised resistance against deformation. The phase angle (δ) showed a decreasing trend by incrementing the frequency. The addition of lime percentages increased the complex modulus value and declined phase angle parameter. Increasing the temperature decreased the complex modulus and increased the phase angle until 70ºC. The decreasing trend of rutting factor with increasing temperature revealed that rutting factor improved by the addition of the lime to the PMB.

Keywords: rheological properties, DSR test, polymer mixed with bitumen (PMB), complex modulus, lime

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Shahab Hasani Nasab, Aran Aeini, Navid Kermanshahi

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In order to reduce road building costs and reduce environmental damage, recycled materials can be used instead of mineral materials in the production of asphalt mixtures. Today, in most parts of the world, cold recycled asphalt with bitumen emulsion, has acceptable results. However, Cold Recycled Asphalt have some deficiency such as stripping, thermal cracking, and rutting. This requires the addition of additives to reduce this deficiency of recycled pavement with emulsified asphalt. In this research, nano-alumina and emulsified asphalt were used to modify the properties of recycled asphalt mixtures according to the technical specifications and the operation of cold recycling. Marshall test methods, dynamic creep test, and resiliency modulus test has been used to obtain the nano-alumina’s effects on asphalt mixture properties. The results show that the addition of nano-alumina would reduce the Marshall stability in samples but increases the rutting resistance. The resiliency modulus increases significantly with this additive.

Keywords: cold asphalt, cold recycling, nano-alumina, dynamic creep, bitumen emulsion

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Authors: Hy Dang, Bo Mei

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The development of machine learning methods and techniques has opened doors for investigation in many areas such as medicines, economics, finance, etc. One active research area involving machine learning is stock market prediction. This research paper tries to consider multiple techniques and methods for stock movement prediction using historical price or price factors. The paper explores the effectiveness of some deep learning frameworks for forecasting stock. Moreover, an architecture (TimeStock) is proposed which takes the representation of time into account apart from the price information itself. Our model achieves a promising result that shows a potential approach for the stock movement prediction problem.

Keywords: classification, machine learning, time representation, stock prediction

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Authors: Supriya H. S., Chandrakala B. M.

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Deep learning based models have been recently successful adoption for network traffic prediction. However, training a deep learning model for various prediction tasks is considered one of the critical tasks due to various reasons. This research work develops Multi-Layer Hybrid Network (MLHN) for network traffic prediction and analysis; MLHN comprises the three distinctive networks for handling the different inputs for custom feature extraction. Furthermore, an optimized and efficient parameter-tuning algorithm is introduced to enhance parameter learning. MLHN is evaluated considering the “Big Data Challenge” dataset considering the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error and R^2as metrics; furthermore, MLHN efficiency is proved through comparison with a state-of-art approach.

Keywords: MLHN, network traffic prediction

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Authors: Lillian Gungat, Meor Othman Hamzah, Mohd Rosli Mohd Hasan, Jan Valentin

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Utilization of a high percentage of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) requires higher production temperatures and consumes more energy. High production temperature expedites the aging of bitumen in RAP, which could affect the mixture performance. Warm mix asphalt (WMA) additive enables reduced production temperatures as a result of viscosity reduction. This paper evaluates the integration of a high percentage of RAP with a WMA additive known as RH-WMA. The optimum dosage of RH-WMA was determined from basic properties tests. A total of 0%, 30% and 50% RAP contents from two roads sources were modified with RH-WMA. The modified RAP bitumen were examined for viscosity, stiffness, rutting resistance and greenhouse gas emissions. The addition of RH-WMA improved the flow of bitumen by reducing the viscosity, and thus, decreased the construction temperature. The stiffness of the RAP modified bitumen reduced with the incorporation of RH-WMA. The positive improvement in rutting resistance was observed on bitumen with the addition of RAP and RH-WMA in comparison with control. It was estimated that the addition of RH-WMA could potentially reduce fuel usage and GHG emissions by 22 %. Hence, the synergy of RAP and WMA technology can be an alternative in green road construction.

Keywords: reclaimed asphalt pavement, WMA additive, viscosity, stiffness, emissions

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Authors: Ali M. Babalghaith, Hamad A. Alsoliman, Abdulrahman S. Al-Suhaibani

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Flexible pavement made with neat asphalt binder is not enough to resist heavy traffic loads as well as harsh environmental condition found in Riyadh region. Therefore, there is a need to modify asphalt binder with polymers to satisfy such conditions. There are several types of polymers that are used to modify asphalt binder. The objective of this paper is to compare the rheological properties of six polymer modified asphalt binders (Lucolast7010, Anglomak2144, Paveflex140, SBS KTR401, EE-2 and Crumb rubber) obtained from asphalt manufacturer plants. The rheological properties of polymer modified asphalt binders were tested using conventional tests such as penetration, softening point and viscosity; and SHRP tests such as dynamic shear rheometer and bending beam rheometer. The results have indicated that the polymer modified asphalt binders have lower penetration and higher softening point than neat asphalt indicating an improvement in stiffness of asphalt binder, and as a result, more resistant to rutting. Moreover, the dynamic shear rheometer results have shown that all modifiers used in this study improved the binder properties and satisfied the Superpave specifications except SBS KTR401 which failed to satisfy the rutting parameter (G*/sinδ).

Keywords: polymer modified asphalt, rheological properties, SBS, crumb rubber, EE-2

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Authors: Zhou Yang, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

Abstract:

Traffic prediction is essential in a multitude of ways in modern urban life. The researchers of earlier work in this domain carry out the investigation chiefly with two major focuses: (1) the accurate forecast of future values in multiple time series and (2) knowledge extraction from spatial-temporal correlations. However, two key considerations for traffic prediction are often missed: the completeness of raw data and the full context of the prediction timestamp. Concentrating on the two drawbacks of earlier work, we devise an approach that can address these issues in a two-phase framework. First, we utilize the raw trajectories to a greater extent through building a VLA table and data compression. We obtain the intra-trajectory features with graph-based encoding and the intertrajectory ones with a grid-based model and the technique of back projection that restore their surrounding high-resolution spatial-temporal environment. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to study direct feature extraction from raw trajectories for traffic prediction and attempt the use of raw data with the least degree of reduction. In the prediction phase, we provide a broader context for the prediction timestamp by taking into account the information that are around it in the training dataset. Extensive experiments on several well-known datasets have verified the effectiveness of our solution that combines the strength of raw trajectory data and prediction context. In terms of performance, our approach surpasses several state-of-the-art methods for traffic prediction.

Keywords: traffic prediction, raw data utilization, context building, data reduction

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

Abstract:

A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

Procedia PDF Downloads 447