Search results for: ruin probability

Authors: S. Jayalakshmi, Gayathri S., Subiksa V., Nithyasri P., Agasthiya

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Paleochannels are the buried part of an active river system which was separated from the active river channel by the process of cutoff or abandonment during the dynamic evolution of the active river. Over time, they are filled by young unconsolidated or semi-consolidated sediments. Additionally, it is impacted by geo morphological influences, lineament alterations, and other factors. The primary goal of this study is to identify the paleochannels in Periyar river basin for the year 2023. Those channels has a high probability in the presence of natural resources, including gold, platinum,tin,an duranium. Numerous techniques are used to map the paleochannel. Using the optical data, Satellite images were collected from various sources, which comprises multispectral satellite images from which indices such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI),Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Soil Adjusted Vegetative Index (SAVI) and thematic layers such as Lithology, Stream Network, Lineament were prepared. Weights are assigned to each layer based on its importance, and overlay analysis has done, which concluded that the northwest region of the area has shown some paleochannel patterns. The results were cross-verified using the results obtained using microwave data. Using Sentinel data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Image was extracted from European Space Agency (ESA) portal, pre-processed it using SNAP 6.0. In addition to that, Polarimetric decomposition technique has incorporated to detect the paleochannels based on its scattering property. Further, Principal component analysis has done for enhanced output imagery. Results obtained from optical and microwave radar data were compared and the location of paleochannels were detected. It resulted six paleochannels in the study area out of which three paleochannels were validated with the existing data published by Department of Geology and Environmental Science, Kerala. The other three paleochannels were newly detected with the help of SAR image.

Keywords: paleochannels, optical data, SAR image, SNAP

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Authors: Bougema Theodore Ntenkeh, Chi-bikom Barbara Kyien

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The reduction of poverty and hunger sits at the heart of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and are the first two of the Sustainable Development Goals. The World Food Day celebrated on the 16th of October every year, highlights the need for people to have physical and economic access at all times to enough nutritious and safe food to live a healthy and active life; while the world poverty day celebrated on the 17th of October is an opportunity to acknowledge the struggle of people living in poverty, a chance for them to make their concerns heard, and for the community to recognize and support poor people in their fight against poverty. The association between household food security and poverty reduction is not only sparse in Cameroon but mostly qualitative. The paper therefore investigates the effect of household food security on poverty reduction in Cameroon quantitatively using data from the Cameroon Household Consumption Survey collected by the Government Statistics Office. The methodology employed five indicators of household food security using the Multiple Correspondence Analysis and poverty is captured as a dummy variable. Using a control function technique, with pre and post estimation test for robustness, the study postulates that household food security has a positive and significant effect on poverty reduction in Cameroon. A unit increase in the food security score reduces the probability of the household being poor by 31.8%, and this effect is statistically significant at 1%. The result further illustrates that the age of the household head and household size increases household poverty while households residing in urban areas are significantly less poor. The paper therefore recommends that households should diversify their food intake to enhance an effective supply of labour in the job market as a strategy to reduce household poverty. Furthermore, family planning methods should be encouraged as a strategy to reduce birth rate for an equitable distribution of household resources including food while the government of Cameroon should also develop the rural areas given that trend in urbanization are associated with the concentration of productive economic activities, leading to increase household income, increased household food security and poverty reduction.

Keywords: food security, poverty reduction, SDGs, Cameroon

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, combined approach, point estimate method, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Jonathan Nash, Allen Hartt, Catherine Plante

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In many nations, community colleges, or similar institutions, play a crucial role in higher education. For example, in the United States more than half of all undergraduate students enroll in a community college at some point during their academic career. Similar statistics have been reported for Australia and Canada. Recognizing the important role these institutions play in educating future accountants, the American Accounting Association has called for research that contributes to a better understanding of these members of the academic community. Although previous literature has shown that community colleges and 4-year institutions differ on many levels, the extant literature has provided data on the characteristics of introductory accounting courses for four-year institutions but not for community colleges. We fill a void in the literature by providing data on the characteristics of introductory accounting courses offered by community colleges in the United States. Data are collected on several dimensions including: course size and staffing, pedagogical orientation, standardization of course elements, textbook selection, and use of technology-based course management tools. Many of these dimensions have been used in previous research examining four-year institutions thereby facilitating comparisons. The resulting data should be of interest to instructors, regulators and administrators, researchers, and the accounting profession. The data provide information on the introductory accounting courses completed by the average community college student which can help instructors identify areas where transfer students’ experiences might differ from their contemporaries at four-year colleges. Regulators and administrators may be interested in the differences between accounting courses offered by two- and four-year institutions when implementing standardized transfer programs. Researchers might use the data to motivate future research into whether differences between two- and four-year institutions affect outcomes like the probability of students choosing to major in accounting and their performance within the major. Accounting professionals may use our findings as a springboard for facilitating discussions related to the accounting labor supply.

Keywords: Accounting curricula, Community college, Descriptive study, Introductory accounting

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Authors: Guadalupe Fuentes-Lombardo, Manuel Carlos Vallejo-Martos, Rubén Fernández-Ortiz, Miriam Cano-Rubio

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The different ways in which companies enter foreign markets, exporting their products and direct investment and using strategic alliances or not, are influenced by a series of peculiarities specific to family businesses. In these companies, different systems, such as the family, property, and business overlap; giving them unique and specific characteristics which on occasions can enhance the development of cooperation agreements and in other situations can hinder them. Previous research has shown that these companies are more likely to enter into strategic alliances with certain specific features, and are more reluctant to take part in others in which some of the advantages of the family business are put at risk, such as control of ownership and decision-making over the company by the family, among others. These arguments show that there is a wide range of interesting aspects and peculiarities in the process of internationalization of the family business, although the research objectives of this paper focus on three in particular. Our first objective will be to discover why family businesses decide to establish or not strategic alliances in their internationalization processes in comparison with other companies that are not family owned. Secondly we will be identifying the idiosyncratic aspects of family businesses that favor or hinder the use of strategic alliances as a means of entering foreign markets. Our third and final objective will be to define the types of strategic alliance most commonly used by family businesses and the reasons why they choose these particular forms of alliance rather than others. We chose these research objectives for three main reasons. Firstly because research on this subject shows that alliances are the best way to begin the international expansion process, among other reasons because they provide the partners with different kinds of resources and capacity, so increasing the probability of successful internationalization. Secondly, because family and non-family businesses are often equipped with different types of resources and strategic alliances, offer them the chance to acquire resources less frequently found in family businesses. Thirdly, because the strengths and weaknesses of these companies could affect their decisions whether or not to use strategic alliances in their international expansion process and the success achieved in these alliances. As a result, these companies prefer to enter into cooperation agreements with conditions that do not put their specific status as family companies at risk.

Keywords: family business, internationalization, strategic alliances, olive-oil and wine industry

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Authors: Asif Khaliq, Sayeeda A. Sayed

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The drug information centers provide drug related information to the requesters that include physicians, pharmacist, nurses and other allied health care professionals. The International Pharmacist Federation (FIP) describes basic functions of a drug and poison information centers as drug evaluation, therapeutic counseling, pharmaceutical advice, research, pharmaco-vigilence and toxicology. Continuous advancement in the field of medicine has expanded the medical literature, which has increased demand of a drug and poison information center for the guidance, support and facilitation of physicians. The objective of the study is to determine the need of drug and poison information centers in public and private hospitals of Karachi, Pakistan. A cross sectional study was conducted during July 2013 to April 2014 using a self-administered, multi-itemed questionnaire. Non Probability Convenient sampling was used to select the study participants. A total of 307 physicians from public and private hospitals of Karachi participated in the study. The need for 24/7 Drug and poison information center was highlighted by 92 % of physicians and 67% physicians suggested opening a drug information center at the hospital. It was reported that 70% physicians take at least 15 minutes for searching the information about the drug while managing a case. Regarding the poisoning case management, 52% physicians complaint about the unavailability of medicines in hospitals; and mentioned the importance of medicines for safe and timely management of patients. Although 73% physicians attended continued medical education (CME) sessions, 92 % physicians insisted on the need of 24/7 Drug and poison information center. The scarcity of organized channel for obtaining the information about drug and poisons is one of the most crucial problems for healthcare workers in Pakistan. The drug and poison information center is an advisory body that assists health care professional and patients in provision of appropriate drug and hazardous substance information. Drug and poison information center is one of the integral needs for running an effective health care system. Provision of a 24 /7 drug information centers with specialized staff offer multiple benefits to the hospitals while reducing treatment delays, addressing awareness gaps of all stakeholders and ensuring provision of quality health care.

Keywords: drug and poison information centers, Pakistan, physicians, public and private hospitals

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: Diana Gibson

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Aim: The first aim of the study was to ascertain the percentage of people who had been diagnosed with High Blood Pressure and/ or Type2 Diabetes Mellitus in Matzikama municipal district, Western Cape, South Africa. These two conditions are reportedly very high in this particular province, even though few statistics are available. A second aim was to gain insight into the understanding of these two conditions among sufferers. A third aim was to determine their allopathic use as well as indigenous medicinal plants to manage these conditions. A fourth aim was to understand how users of medicinal plants attend to their materiality and relationality as a continuum between humans and plants. The final aim was to ascertain the conservation status of medicinal plants utilised. Methods: One thousand one hundred and eighty-four (1184) respondents were interviewed. Semi-structured surveys were utilised to gather data on the percentage of people who had been medically diagnosed with High Blood Pressure and/or Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. Local healers and knowledgeable old people were subsequently selected through a non-probability snowball sampling method. They were helped with plant collection. The plants were botanically identified. Results: The study found that people who have been diagnosed with High Blood Pressure or Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus drew on and continuously moved between biomedical and local understandings of these conditions. While they followed biomedical treatment regimens as far as possible they also drew on alternative ways of managing it through the use of medicinal plants. The most commonly used plant species overall were Lessertia frutescens, Tulbaghia violacea, Artemisia afra and Leonotus leonurus. For the users, medicinal plants were not mere material entities, they were actants in social networks where knowledge was produced through particular practices in specific places. None of the identified plants are currently threatened. Significance: Sufferers had a good understanding of the symptoms of and biomedical treatment regime for both conditions, but in everyday life they adhered to their local understandings and medicinal plants for treatment. The majority used reportedly used prescribed medication as well as plant alternatives.

Keywords: diabetes, high blood pressure, medicine, plants

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Authors: Shazia Shamim, Pallavi Gautam

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The present study describes the presence of rare or endangered plants from Poonch Dist., which spread over 1674 Km sq. located between latitude 330 25' N to 340 01' N and longitude 730 58' E to 740 35' E forming a part of the Northwest Himalaya in Jammu and Kashmir state of India, with the aim of suggesting the strategy for the conservation and promotion of cultivation of rare and endangered medicinal plants, as well as developing traditional knowledge of medicinal plants. The main threats to biodiversity and ecosystem are overexploitation, global climate change, habitat loss, fragmentation, pollution, and invasion of alien species and disturbance of community structure. Surveys were carried out during 2015-2016 throughout the Poonch valley. During the field survey, various criteria of International Union for the conservation of nature for categorizing threatened plants, extent of occurrence, area of occupancy, probability of extinction, etc. were measured. The rarity of species was determined by field study, visual estimations, and literature. During the collection, it was observed that few rare and endangered species which were present in the study area, are also mentioned in the prescribed red data book of Indian plants, International Union for conservation of nature, list of threatened species and list of Botanical Survey of India presented by its Northern Regional Centre. The study was based on extensive surveys of the study area and then concluded by preparing a list of plant species occurring in different seasons, the photographs of all these plant species were collected. Actual threats to the population of a selected plant species in a given area were recorded by direct observation. The present paper provides information about 22 rare and endangered medicinal plant species belonging to 18 families that are used by the native of these areas. Information provided includes botanical name, family name, local name, habitat, part used, ethno medicinal uses and brief preparation of the reported plant species is presented in the present work.

Keywords: biodiversity, traditional knowledge, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Botanical Survery of India

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Authors: Yasir Memon

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The complexity and challenges in the offshore industry are increasing more than the past. The oil and gas industry is expanding every day by accomplishing these challenges. More challenging wells such as longer and deeper are being drilled in today’s environment. Blowout prevention phenomena hold a worthy importance in oil and gas biosphere. In recent, so many past years when the oil and gas industry was growing drilling operation were extremely dangerous. There was none technology to determine the pressure of reservoir and drilling hence was blind operation. A blowout arises when an uncontrolled reservoir pressure enters in wellbore. A potential of blowout in the oil industry is the danger for the both environment and the human life. Environmental damage, state/country regulators, and the capital investment causes in loss. There are many cases of blowout in the oil the gas industry caused damage to both human and the environment. A huge capital investment is being in used to stop happening of blowout through all over the biosphere to bring damage at the lowest level. The objective of this study is to promote safety and good resources to assure safety and environmental integrity in all operations during drilling. This study shows that human errors and management failure is the main cause of blowout therefore proper management with the wise use of precautions, prevention methods or controlling techniques can reduce the probability of blowout to a minimum level. It also discusses basic procedures, concepts and equipment involved in well control methods and various steps using at various conditions. Furthermore, another aim of this study work is to highlight management role in oil gas operations. Moreover, this study analyze the causes of Blowout of Macondo well occurred in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20, 2010, and deliver the recommendations and analysis of various aspect of well control methods and also provides the list of mistakes and compromises that British Petroleum and its partner were making during drilling and well completion methods and also the Macondo well disaster happened due to various safety and development rules violation. This case study concludes that Macondo well blowout disaster could be avoided with proper management of their personnel’s and communication between them and by following safety rules/laws it could be brought to minimum environmental damage.

Keywords: energy, environment, oil and gas industry, Macondo well accident

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Authors: Jenan Shakoor

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Obesity prevalence is increasing worldwide. University life is a challenging period especially for students who have to leave their familiar surroundings and settle in a new environment. The current study aimed to assess the diet and exercise habits and their association with body mass index (BMI) among nursing college students living at Kirkuk University residence. This was a descriptive study. A non-probability (purposive) sample of 101 students living in Kirkuk University residence was recruited during the period from the 15^th November 2015 to the 5^th May 2016. A questionnaire was constructed for the purpose of the study which consisted of four parts: the demographic characteristics of the study sample, eating habits, eating at college and healthy habits. The data were collected by interviewing the study sample and the weight and height were measured by a trained researcher at the college. Descriptive statistical analysis was undertaken. Data were prepared, organized and entered into the computer file; the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS 20) was used for data analysis. A p value≤ 0.05 was accepted as statistical significant. A total of 63 (62.4%) of the sample were aged20-21with a mean age of 22.1 (SD±0.653). A third of the sample 38 (37.6%) were from level four at college, 67 (66.3%) were female and 46 45.5% of participants were from a middle socio-economic status. 14 (13.9%) of the study sample were overweight (BMI =25-29.9kg/m²) and 6 (5.9%) were obese (BMI≥30kg/m²) compared to 73 (72.3%) were of normal weight (BMI =18.5-24.9kg/m²). With regard to eating habits and exercise, 42 (41.6%) of the students rarely ate breakfast, 79 (78.2%) eat lunch at university residence, 77 (78.2%) of the students reported rarely doing exercise and 62 (61.4%) of them were sleeping for less than eight hours. No significant association was found between the variables age, sex, level of college and socio-economic status and BMI, while there was a significant association between eating lunch at university and BMI (p =0.03). No significant association was found between eating habits, healthy habits and BMI. The prevalence of overweight and obesity among the study sample was 19.8% with female students being more obese than males. Further studies are needed to identify BMI among residence students in other colleges and increasing the awareness of undergraduate students to healthy food habits.

Keywords: body mass index, diet, obesity, university residence

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Authors: Kyungsuk Cho, Seungun Chae, Jihun Choi

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Elevators are examined as one of evacuation methods in super-tall buildings. However, data on the use of elevators for evacuation at a fire are extremely scarce. Therefore, a test to measure delay time in using an evacuation elevator was conducted. In the test, time taken to get on and get off an elevator was measured and the case in which people gave up boarding when the capacity of the elevator was exceeded was also taken into consideration. 170 men and women participated in the test, 130 of whom were young people (20 ~ 50 years old) and 40 were senior citizens (over 60 years old). The capacity of the elevator was 25 people and it travelled between the 2nd and 4th floors. A video recording device was used to analyze the test. An elevator at an ordinary building, not a super-tall building, was used in the test to measure delay time in getting on and getting off an elevator. In order to minimize interference from other elements, elevator platforms on the 2nd and 4th floors were partitioned off. The elevator travelled between the 2nd and 4th floors where people got on and off. If less than 20 people got on the elevator which was empty, the data were excluded. If the elevator carrying 10 passengers stopped and less than 10 new passengers got on the elevator, the data were excluded. Getting-on an empty elevator was observed 49 times. The average number of passengers was 23.7, it took 14.98 seconds for the passengers to get on the empty elevator and the load factor was 1.67 N/s. It took the passengers, whose average number was 23.7, 10.84 seconds to get off the elevator and the unload factor was 2.33 N/s. When an elevator’s capacity is exceeded, the excessive number of people should get off. Time taken for it and the probability of the case were measure in the test. 37% of the times of boarding experienced excessive number of people. As the number of people who gave up boarding increased, the load factor of the ride decreased. When 1 person gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.55 N/s. The case was observed 10 times, which was 12.7% of the total. When 2 people gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.15 N/s. The case was observed 7 times, which was 8.9% of the total. When 3 people gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.26 N/s. The case was observed 4 times, which was 5.1% of the total. When 4 people gave up boarding, the load factor was 1.03 N/s. The case was observed 5 times, which was 6.3% of the total. Getting-on and getting-off time data for people who can walk freely were obtained from the test. In addition, quantitative results were obtained from the relation between the number of people giving up boarding and time taken for getting on. This work was supported by the National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST) grant by the Korea government (MSIP) (No. CRC-16-02-KICT).

Keywords: evacuation elevator, super tall buildings, evacuees, delay time

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Authors: Wondmnew Derebe Yohannis

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Farming irrigation plays a crucial role in rural development strategies, impacting both annual household income and livelihood. This research aims to evaluate the factors influencing irrigation participation and assess the impact of small-scale irrigation on rural households' annual income. The study collected data from 287 farmers in the Dahana district of northern Ethiopia. The research investigates the driving forces behind farmers' decisions to adopt small-scale irrigation and its effect on annual income gain. The findings reveal that several factors positively influence the probability of adoption, including access to credit, cultivated land size, livestock holding, extension contact, and the education level of the household head. Conversely, the distance to local markets and water schemes negatively affects the likelihood of adoption. To understand the differences in annual income between farm households that adopted irrigation and those that did not, a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching regression is estimated. This accounts for the heterogeneity in the adoption decision and unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farms. The analysis compares the expected income gain under actual and counterfactual scenarios, considering whether the farm household adopted irrigation or not. The study reveals that the group of farm households that adopted irrigation has distinct characteristics compared to those that did not adopt it. Furthermore, the research demonstrates that the adoption of irrigation practices leads to an increase in annual income. Interestingly, the impact of small-scale irrigation on annual income is greater for the farm households that actually adopted irrigation compared to those in the counterfactual scenario where they did not adopt. Based on the findings, the researcher concludes that small-scale irrigation is a practical solution for meeting household financial needs in the study area. It is recommended that investments in small-scale irrigation continue to further improve the livelihoods of rural farming communities by enhancing annual income gains.

Keywords: small-scale irrigation, income, rural farm households, endogenous switching regression, user, non-user

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Islam Nowisser, Noha Farag, Mohamed El Azizi

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Helicobacter pylori is a highly important human pathogen which inhabits about 50% of the population worldwide. Infection with this bacteria is very hard to treat, with high probability of recurrence. H. pylori causes severe gastric diseases, including peptic ulcer, gastritis, and gastric cancer, which has been linked to chronic inflammation. The infection has been reported to be associated with high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, especially IL-1β and TNF-α. The aim of the current study is to investigate the molecular mechanisms by which H. pylori activates NLRP3 inflammasome and its contribution to Il-1 β production in an innate cellular model. H. pylori PMSS1 and G27 standard strains, as well as the PMSS1 isogenic mutant strain PMSS1ΔVacA and G27ΔVacA, G27ΔCagA in addition to clinical isolates obtained from biopsy samples from the antrum and corpus mucosa of chronic gastritis patients, were used to establish infection in RAW-264.7 macrophages. The production levels of TNF-α and IL-1β was assessed using ELISA. Since expression of these cytokines is often regulated by the transcription factor complex, nuclear factor-kB (NF-kB), the activation of NF-κB in H. pylori infected cells was also evaluated by luciferase assay. Genomic DNA was extracted from bacterial cultures of H. pylori clinical isolates as well as the standard strains and their corresponding mutants, where they were evaluated for the cagA pathogenicity island and vacA expression. The correlation between these findings and expression of the cagA Pathogenicity Island and vacA in the bacteria was also investigated. The results showed IL-1β, and TNF-α production significantly increased in raw macrophages following H. pylori infection. The cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains induced significant production of IL-1β compared to cagA- and vacA- strains. The activation pattern of NF-κB was correlated in the isolates to their cagA and vacA expression profiles. A similar finding could not be confirmed for TNF-α production. Our study shows the ability of H. pylori to activate NF-kB and induce significant IL-1β production as a possible mechanism for the augmented inflammatory response seen in subjects infected with cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains that would lead to the progression to more severe form of the disease.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, IL-1β, inflammatory cytokines, nuclear factor KB, TNF-α

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Authors: Hong Wu, Naiji Lu

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Improvement of health behavior among people with chronic diseases is vital for increasing longevity and enhancing quality of life. This paper researched the causal effects of informal care on the compliance with doctor’s health advices – smoking control, dietetic regulation, weight control and keep exercising – among older people with chronic diseases in China, which is facing the challenge of aging. We addressed the selection bias by using propensity score matching in the estimation process. We used the 2011-2012 national baseline data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Our results showed informal care can help improve health behavior of older people. First, informal care improved the compliance of smoking controls: whether smoke, frequency of smoking, and the time lag between wake up and the first cigarette was all lower for these older people with informal care; Second, for dietetic regulation, older people with informal care had more meals every day than older people without informal care; Third, three variables: BMI, whether gain weight and whether lose weight were used to measure the outcome of weight control. There were no significant difference between group with informal care and that without for BMI and the possibility of losing weight. Older people with informal care had lower possibility of gain weight than that without; Last, for the advice of keeping exercising, informal care increased the probability of walking exercise, however, the difference between groups for moderate and vigorous exercise were not significant. Our results indicate policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care to elders into account and provide an appropriate policy to meet the demand of informal care. Our birth policy and postponed retirement policy may decrease the informal caregiving hours, so adjustments of these policies are important and urgent to meet the current situation of aged tendency of population. In addition, government could give more support to develop organizations to provide formal care, such as nursing home. We infer that formal care is also useful for health behavior improvements.

Keywords: chronic diseases, compliance, CHARLS, health advice, informal care, older people, propensity score matching

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Authors: Julia V. F. Cortes, Maria E. V. Amarante, Carolina L. Cerdeira, Roberta B. V. Silva

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Nonmelanoma skin cancer is more commonly diagnosed than all other malignancies combined. In that group, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma stands out for having the highest probability of metastasis and recurrence after treatment, in addition to being the second most prevalent form of skin cancer. Its main risk factors include exposure to carcinogens, such as ultraviolet radiation related to sunlight exposure, smoking, alcohol consumption, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. Considering the increased risk of skin cancer in the Brazilian population, caused by the high incidence of solar radiation, and the importance of identifying risk phenotypes for the accomplishment of public health actions, an epidemiological study was conducted in a city with a tropical climate located in southeastern Brazil, aiming to identify the target population and assist in primary and secondary prevention. This study describes the profile of patients with cutaneous squamous cell cancer, correlating the variables, sex, age, and differentiation. The study used as primary data source the results of anatomopathological exams delivered from January 2015 to December 2019 for patients registered at one pathology service, which analyzes the results of biopsies, Thus, 66 patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma were analyzed. The most affected age group was 60 years or older (78.79%), emphasizing that moderately differentiated (79.49%) and well-differentiated forms (66.67%) are prevalent in this age group, resulting in a difference of 12.82 percentage points between them. In addition, the predominant sex was male (58%), and it was found that half of the women and 65.79% of men had a moderately differentiated type, whereas the well-differentiated type was slightly more frequent in women. It is worth noting that the moderately differentiated subtype has a 59.20% prevalence among all cases. Thus, it was concluded that the most affected age group was 60 years or older and that men were more affected. As for the subtype, the moderately differentiated one, which is recognized for presenting the second-highest risk for metastasis, was prevalent in this study, affecting 6.6% more men and predominating in the elderly.

Keywords: cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, epidemiology, skin cancer, spinal cell cancer

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Authors: Debrah Mtshelwane, Alewyn Nel, Lizelle Brink

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Social desirability is an important topic to study. It may be possible that different cultures experience social desirability in different ways. Different cultural groups exist within South Africa, however the focus of this study is specifically in the Zulu culture. This research aims to explore social desirability from an emic perspective within the social constructivist paradigm among individuals within the Zulu culture. The researcher intended to identify those features Zulu individuals deem as socially desirable and undesirable from their cultural viewpoint. The research was conducted using a qualitative research design and the constructivism paradigm was utilised in this study. Combined purposive and quota non-probability sampling was employed for this study. A sample of 30 employees (N = 30) working in various organisations from the provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal formed part of this study and data were collected through semi-structured interviews. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. The main findings showed that Zulu people regard certain behaviours and actions as socially desirable and others as undesirable. The following are considered socially desirable: Conscientiousness, dominance, subjective expectations and positive relations, these are the themes that were reported on the most. These are positive features in the Zulu culture, and they reflect on behaviour patterns, attitudes and manners that people display, which are also seen as acceptable and good in the Zulu culture. The following are regarded as socially undesirable features that were identified by people who belong to the Zulu culture, the themes that were identified as undesirable are: non-conscientiousness, non-dominance (male), dominance (females), tradition, negative relations and subjective expectations. This study creates awareness on social desirability in the workplace and provides basic tools to management on how to deal with such behaviours relating to this phenomenon in the workplace. This knowledge informs employees on the concept of socially desirable behaviour, and provide more insight into behaviours and/or emotions Zulu individuals. The outcome of this study provided new indigenous, empirical knowledge on the phenomenon of social desirability within the South African context.

Keywords: cultural diversity, emic perspective, social constructivism paradigm, social desirability, Zulu culture

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Jayanta Bora, Ashok Agarwal, Sangeeta Kaul

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Background: HIV and STI transmission can be prevented if condoms are used properly, but condom tear may lead to infections even if are used consistently. Studies reveal high rates of condom breakage among Female Sex Workers (FSWs). USAID PHFI-PIPPSE is piloting a prevention model among high risk groups at Thane district of Maharashtra, India by implementing prevention and advocacy efforts for such risk behaviors. The current analysis highlights the correlates of condom breakage among FSWs from Thane. Method: A Behavioral Tracking Survey was conducted in 2014-15 among 503 FSWs through probability-based two stage random sampling from 3,660 FSWs at 100 hotspots, to understand levels of high risk behaviors, awareness and exposure to prevention programs. Bi-variate and multivariate-logistic regression methods used to assess the association of condom breakage while having sex with age, STI occurrence, anal sex with clients and alcohol consumption. Only self-reported STIs (Genital sore/ulcer, yellowish/ greenish discharge from vagina with/without foul smell, lower abdominal pain without diarrhea/dysentery or menses) were considered. Major Findings: Results depicted FSWs who reported condom breakage while having sex with any type of partner (paying clients, non-paying partners and other than main partner husband/boyfriend) had significantly high number of STIs (42.3% vs 16.9 %, P, 0.000) and had started sexual relationship in <16 years of age (31.0% vs 16.4 %, P, 0.000). Multivariate analysis after controlling the age at sex, knowledge about HIV and literacy, highlighted significantly higher odds of condom breakage among FSWs who have reported currently suffering with STI [AOR 2.91, 95% CI 1.75 - 4.83; P, 0.000]; who had anal sex with their paying client [AOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.59 - 4.19; P, 0.000]; and who consumed alcohol in the last 12 months [AOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.01 - 3.53; P, 0.047]. Conclusion: Risky behavior like anal sex with paying clients and impact of alcohol while having sex are main factors for condom breakage among young sex workers; and condom breakage leads to STIs. Hence, program interventions should address measures for prevention of condom breakage for HIV/STI prevention.

Keywords: female sex workers, condom breakage, anal sex, young sex workers

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Authors: Zehra Aybike Kılıç, Alpin Köknel Yener

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Daylight is a powerful driver in terms of improving human health, enhancing productivity and creating sustainable solutions by minimizing energy demand. A proper daylighting system allows not only a pleasant and attractive visual and thermal environment, but also reduces lighting energy consumption and heating/cooling energy load with the optimization of aperture size, glazing type and solar control strategy, which are the major design parameters of daylighting system design. Particularly, in high-rise buildings where large openings that allow maximum daylight and view out are preferred, evaluation of daylight performance by considering the major parameters of the building envelope design becomes crucial in terms of ensuring occupants’ comfort and improving energy efficiency. Moreover, it is increasingly necessary to examine the daylighting design of high-rise residential buildings, considering the share of residential buildings in the construction sector, the duration of occupation and the changing space requirements. This study aims to identify a proper daylighting design solution considering window area, glazing type and solar control strategy for a high-residential building in terms of visual comfort and lighting energy efficiency. The dynamic simulations are carried out/conducted by DIVA for Rhino version 4.1.0.12. The results are evaluated with Daylight Autonomy (DA) to demonstrate daylight availability in the space and Daylight Glare Probability (DGP) to describe the visual comfort conditions related to glare. Furthermore, it is also analyzed that the lighting energy consumption occurred in each scenario to determine the optimum solution reducing lighting energy consumption by optimizing daylight performance. The results revealed that it is only possible that reduction in lighting energy consumption as well as providing visual comfort conditions in buildings with the proper daylighting design decision regarding glazing type, transparency ratio and solar control device.

Keywords: daylighting , glazing type, lighting energy efficiency, residential building, solar control strategy, visual comfort

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Authors: Seyed Hassan Nikookar, Mahmoud Fazeli-Dinan, Seyyed Payman Ziapour, Ahmad-Ali Enayati

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Background: Mosquitoes look for all kinds of aquatic habitats for laying eggs. Characteristics of water habitats are important factors in determining whether a mosquito can survive and successfully completed their developmental stages. Physicochemical factors can display an important role in vector control programs. This investigate determined whether physicochemical factors differ between habitats can be effective in the larvae density in Mazandaran province. Methods: Larvae were collected by the standard dipper up to 350 ml for 15-20 minutes from fixed habitats in 16 villages of 30 townships, the specimens identified by morphological key. Water samples were collected during larval collection and were evaluated for temperature (°C), acidity (pH), turbidity (NTU), electrical conductivity (μS/cm), alkalinity (mg/l), total hardness (mg/l), nitrate (mg/l), chloride (mg/l), phosphate (mg/l), sulfate (mg/l) in selected habitats using standard methods. Spearman Correlation coefficient was used for analyze data. Results: Totally 7566 mosquito larvae of three genera and 15 species were collected of fixed habitats. Cx. pipiens was the dominant species except in villages of Tileno, Zavat, Asad Abad, Shah Mansur Mahale which An. maculipennis, Cx. torrentium were as the predominant species. Turbidity in Karat Koti, Chloride in Al Tappeh, nitrate, phosphate and sulfate in Chalmardi, electrical conductivity, alkalinity, total hardness in Komishan villages were significantly higher than other villages (P < 0.05). There were a significant positive correlation between Cx. pipiens and Electrical conductivity, Alkalinity, Total hardness, Chloride, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and Chloride, whereas a significant negative correlation observed between Sulfate and Cx. perexiguss. Conclusion: The correlations observed between physicochemical factor and larval density, possibly can confirm the effect of these parameters on the breeding activities of mosquitoes, and could probability facilitate larval control programs by the handwork of such factors.

Keywords: anopheles, culex, culiseta, physicochemical, habitats, larvae density, correlation

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Diabetes in India is growing at an alarming rate and the complications caused by it need to be controlled. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the complications that will be discussed for prediction in this study. India has the second most number of diabetes patients in the world. To the best of our knowledge, there is no CHD risk score for Indian type 2 diabetes patients. Any form of CHD has been taken as the event of interest. A sample of 750 was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of CHD. Predictive risk scores of CHD events are designed by cox proportional hazard regression. Model calibration and discrimination is assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Overfitting and underfitting of the model is checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Youden’s index is used to choose the optimal cut off point from the scores. Five year probability of CHD is predicted by both survival function and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores for CHD developed can be calculated by doctors and patients for self-control of diabetes. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be implemented as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, cox proportional hazard regression, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes Mellitus

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Authors: Ni'mal Baroya, Andrei Ramani, Irma Prasetyowati

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The access to reproduction health services, including with safe and effective contraception were human rights regardless of social stratum and residence. In addition to individual factors, family and contextual factors were also believed to be the cause in the use of contraceptive methods. This study aimed to assess the determinants of long-term contraceptive methods (LTCM) by considering all the factors at either the individual level or contextual level. Thereby, this study could provide basic information for program development of prevalence enhancement of MKJP in East Java. The research, which used cross-sectional design, utilized Riskesdas 2013 data, particularly in East Java Province for further analysis about multilevel modeling of MKJP application. The sample of this study consisted of 20.601 married women who were not in pregnant that were drawn by using probability sampling following the sampling technique of Riskesdas 2013. Variables in this study were including the independent variables at the individual level that consisted of education, age, occupation, access to family planning services (KB), economic status and residence. As independent variables in district level were the Human Development Index (HDI, henceforth as IPM) in each districts of East Java Province, the ratio of field officers, the ratio of midwives, the ratio of community health centers and the ratio of doctors. As for the dependent variable was the use of Long-Term Contraceptive Method (LTCM or MKJP). The data were analyzed by using chi-square test and Pearson product moment correlation. The multivariable analysis was using multilevel logistic regression with 95% of Confidence Interval (CI) at the significance level of p < 0.05 and 80% of strength test. The results showed a low CPR LTCM was concentrated in districts in Madura Island and the north coast. The women which were 25 to 35 or more than 35 years old, at least high school education, working, and middle-class social status were more likely to use LTCM or MKJP. The IPM and low PLKB ratio had implications for poor CPR LTCM / MKJP.

Keywords: multilevel, long-term contraceptive methods, east java, contextual factor

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Authors: Nurhajati Hakim, Kiki Amalia, A. Agustian, H. Hermansah, Y. Yulnafatmawita

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Ultisols require greater amounts of fertilizer application compared to other soils and susceptible to erosion. Unfortunately, the price of synthetic fertilizers has increased over time during the years, making them unaffordable for most Indonesian farmers. While terrace technique to control erosion very costly.Over the last century, efforts to reduce reliance on synthetic agro-chemicals fertilizers and erosion control have recently focused on Tithonia diversifolia as a fertilizer alternative, and as hedgerow plant to control erosion. Generally known by its common name of tree marigold or Mexican sunflower, this plant has attracted considerable attention for its prolific production of green biomass, rich in nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium (NPK). In pot experiments has founded some microbial such as Mycorrhizal, Azotobacter, Azospirillum, phosphate solubilizing bacterial (PSB) and fungi (PSF) are expected to play an important role in biomass production and high nutrient uptake of this plant. This issue of importance was pursued further in the following investigation in field condition. The aim of this study was to determine the type of microbial combination suitable for Tithonia cultivation as hedgerow plants in Ultisols which have higher biomass production and nutrient content, and decline soil erosion. The field experiment was conducted with 6 treatments in a randomized block design (RBD) using 3 replications. The treatments were: Tithonia rhizosphere without microbial inoculated (A); Inokulanted by Mycorrhizal + Azotobacter + Azospirillium (B); Mycorrhizal + PSF (C); Mycorrhizal + PSB(D); Mycorrhizal + PSB + PSF(E);and without hedgerow Tithonia (F).The microbial substrates were inoculated into the Tithonia rhizosphere in the nursery. The young Tithonia plants were then planted as hedgerow on Ultisols in the experimental field for 8 months, and pruned once every 2 months. Soil erosion were collected every rainy time. The differences between treatments were statistically significant by HSD test at the 95% level of probability. The result showed that treatment C (mycorrhizal + PSB) was the most effective, and followed by treatment D (mycorrhizal + PSF) in producing higher Tithonia biomass about 8 t dry matter 2000 m-2 ha-1 y-1 and declined soil erosion 71-75%.

Keywords: hedgerow tithonia, microbial inoculants, organic fertilizer, soil erosion control

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Authors: Abdel Rahman Khider Hassan

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This paper describes a multi-criteria geospatial model for prediction of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for Lake Naivasha catchment (Kenya), based on spatial analysis of integrated datasets of location intrinsic parameters (slope stability factors) and external landslides triggering factors (natural and man-made factors). The intrinsic dataset included: lithology, geometry of slope (slope inclination, aspect, elevation, and curvature) and land use/land cover. The landslides triggering factors included: rainfall as the climatic factor, in addition to the destructive effects reflected by proximity of roads and drainage network to areas that are susceptible to landslides. No published study on landslides has been obtained for this area. Thus, digital datasets of the above spatial parameters were conveniently acquired, stored, manipulated and analyzed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) using a multi-criteria grid overlay technique (in ArcGIS 10.2.2 environment). Deduction of landslide hazard zonation is done by applying weights based on relative contribution of each parameter to the slope instability, and finally, the weighted parameters grids were overlaid together to generate a map of the potential landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for the lake catchment. From the total surface of 3200 km² of the lake catchment, most of the region (78.7 %; 2518.4 km²) is susceptible to moderate landslide hazards, whilst about 13% (416 km²) is occurring under high hazards. Only 1.0% (32 km²) of the catchment is displaying very high landslide hazards, and the remaining area (7.3 %; 233.6 km²) displays low probability of landslide hazards. This result confirms the importance of steep slope angles, lithology, vegetation land cover and slope orientation (aspect) as the major determining factors of slope failures. The information provided by the produced map of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) could lay the basis for decision making as well as mitigation and applications in avoiding potential losses caused by landslides in the Lake Naivasha catchment in the Kenya Highlands.

Keywords: decision making, geospatial, landslide, multi-criteria, Naivasha

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Authors: Kanikanun Photchong, Phusit Phukamchanoad

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The objective of this research is to study the people’s level of participation in activities of the community, their satisfaction towards the community, the attachment they have to the community, factors that influence the attachment, as well as the characteristics of the relationships of military families’ of the Royal Guards community of Dusit District. The method used was non-probability sampling by quota sampling according to people’s age. The determined age group was 18 years or older. One set of a sample group was done per family. The questionnaires were conducted by 287 people. Snowball sampling was also used by interviewing people of the community, starting from the Royal Guards Community’s leader, then by 20 of the community’s well-respected persons. The data was analyzed by using descriptive statistics, such as arithmetic mean and standard deviation, as well as by inferential statistics, such as Independent - Samples T test (T-test), One-Way ANOVA (F-test), Chi-Square. Descriptive analysis according to the structure of the interview content was also used. The results of the research is that the participation of the population in the Royal Guards Community in various activities is at a medium level, with the average participation level during Mother’s and Father’s Days. The people’s general level of satisfaction towards the premises of the Royal Guards Community is at the highest level. The people were most satisfied with the transportation within the community and in contacting with people from outside the premises. The access to the community is convenient and there are various entrances. The attachment of the people to the Royal Guards Community in general and by each category is at a high level. The feeling that the community is their home rated the highest average. Factors that influence the attachment of the people of the Royal Guards Community are age, status, profession, income, length of stay in the community, membership of social groups, having neighbors they feel close and familiar with, and as well as the benefits they receive from the community. In addition, it was found that people that participate in activities have a high level of positive relationship towards the attachment of the people to the Royal Guards Community. The satisfaction of the community has a very high level of positive relationship with the attachment of the people to the Royal Guards Community. The characteristics of the attachment of military families’ is that they live in big houses that everyone has to protect and care for, starting from the leader of the family as well as all members. Therefore, they all love the community they live in. The characteristics that show the participation of activities within the community and the high level of satisfaction towards the premises of the community will enable the people to be more attached to the community. The people feel that everyone is close neighbors within the community, as if they are one big family.

Keywords: community attachment, community satisfaction, royal guards community, activities of the community

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Authors: Constantin Z. Leshan

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Hole Vacuum theory is based on discontinuous spacetime that contains vacuum holes. Vacuum holes can explain gravitation, some laws of quantum mechanics and allow teleportation of matter. All massive bodies emit a flux of holes which curve the spacetime; if we increase the concentration of holes, it leads to length contraction and time dilation because the holes do not have the properties of extension and duration. In the limited case when space consists of holes only, the distance between every two points is equal to zero and time stops - outside of the Universe, the extension and duration properties do not exist. For this reason, the vacuum hole is the only particle in physics capable of describing gravitation using its own properties only. All microscopic particles must 'jump' continually and 'vibrate' due to the appearance of holes (impassable microscopic 'walls' in space), and it is the cause of the quantum behavior. Vacuum holes can explain the entanglement, non-locality, wave properties of matter, tunneling, uncertainty principle and so on. Particles do not have trajectories because spacetime is discontinuous and has impassable microscopic 'walls' due to the simple mechanical motion is impossible at small scale distances; it is impossible to 'trace' a straight line in the discontinuous spacetime because it contains the impassable holes. Spacetime 'boils' continually due to the appearance of the vacuum holes. For teleportation to be possible, we must send a body outside of the Universe by enveloping it with a closed surface consisting of vacuum holes. Since a material body cannot exist outside of the Universe, it reappears instantaneously in a random point of the Universe. Since a body disappears in one volume and reappears in another random volume without traversing the physical space between them, such a transportation method can be called teleportation (or Hole Teleportation). It is shown that Hole Teleportation does not violate causality and special relativity due to its random nature and other properties. Although Hole Teleportation has a random nature, it can be used for colonization of extrasolar planets by the help of the method called 'random jumps': after a large number of random teleportation jumps, there is a probability that the spaceship may appear near a habitable planet. We can create vacuum holes experimentally using the method proposed by Descartes: we must remove a body from the vessel without permitting another body to occupy this volume.

Keywords: border of the Universe, causality violation, perfect isolation, quantum jumps

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Authors: Temitope L. Baiyegunhi, Kuiwu Liu, Oswald Gwavava, Christopher Baiyegunhi

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Shale gas has recently been the exploration focus for future energy resource in South Africa. Specifically, the black shales of the lower Ecca Group in the study area are considered to be one of the most prospective targets for shale gas exploration. Evaluation of this potential resource has been restricted due to the lack of exploration and scarcity of existing drill core data. Thus, only limited previous geochemical data exist for these formations. In this study, outcrop and core samples of the Ecca Group were analysed to assess their total organic carbon (TOC), organic matter type, thermal maturity and hydrocarbon generation potential (SP). The results show that these rocks have TOC ranging from 0.11 to 7.35 wt.%. The SP values vary from 0.09 to 0.53 mg HC/g, suggesting poor hydrocarbon generative potential. The plot of S1 versus TOC shows that the source rocks were characterized by autochthonous hydrocarbons. S2/S3 values range between 0.40 and 7.5, indicating Type- II/III, III, and IV kerogen. With the exception of one sample from the collingham formation which has HI value of 53 mg HC/g TOC, all other samples have HI values of less than 50 mg HC/g TOC, thus suggesting Type-IV kerogen, which is mostly derived from reworked organic matter (mainly dead carbon) with little or no potential for hydrocarbon generation. Tmax values range from 318 to 601℃, indicating immature to over-maturity of hydrocarbon. The vitrinite reflectance values range from 2.22 to 3.93%, indicating over-maturity of the kerogen. Binary plots of HI against OI and HI versus Tmax show that the shales are of Type II and mixed Type II-III kerogen, which are capable of generating both natural gas and minor oil at suitable burial depth. Based on the geochemical data, it can be inferred that the source rocks are immature to over-matured variable from localities and have potential of producing wet to dry gas at present-stage. Generally, the Whitehill formation of the Ecca Group is comparable to the Marcellus and Barnett Shales. This further supports the assumption that the Whitehill Formation has a high probability of being a profitable shale gas play, but only when explored in dolerite-free area and away from the Cape Fold Belt.

Keywords: source rock, organic matter type, thermal maturity, hydrocarbon generation potential, Ecca Group

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: Mahamuda Sk, Srinivasa Rao Allam, Vijaya Prakash G.

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The different concentrations of Eu3+ ions doped in Oxy-fluoroborate glasses of composition 60 B2O3-10 BaF2-10 CaF2-15 CaF2- (5-x) Al2O3 -x Eu2O3 where x = 0.1, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 mol%, have been prepared by conventional melt quenching technique and are characterized through absorption and photoluminescence (PL), decay, color chromaticity and Confocal measurements. The absorption spectra of all the glasses consists of six peaks corresponding to the transitions 7F0→5D2, 7F0→5D1, 7F1→5D1, 7F1→5D0, 7F0→7F6 and 7F1→7F6 respectively. The experimental oscillator strengths with and without thermal corrections have been evaluated using absorption spectra. Judd-Ofelt (JO) intensity parameters (Ω2 and Ω4) have been evaluated from the photoluminescence spectra of all the glasses. PL spectra of all the glasses have been recorded at excitation wavelengths 395 nm (conventional excitation source) and 410 nm (diode laser) to observe the intensity variation in the PL spectra. All the spectra consists of five emission peaks corresponding to the transitions 5D0→7FJ (J = 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4). Surprisingly no concentration quenching is observed on PL spectra. Among all the glasses the glass with 2.0 mol% of Eu3+ ion concentration possesses maximum intensity for the transition 5D0→7F2 (612 nm) in bright red region. The JO parameters derived from the photoluminescence spectra have been used to evaluate the essential radiative properties such as transition probability (A), radiative lifetime (τR), branching ratio (βR) and peak stimulated emission cross-section (σse) for the 5D0→7FJ (J = 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4) transitions of the Eu3+ ions. The decay rates of the 5D0 fluorescent level of Eu3+ ions in the title glasses are found to be single exponential for all the studied Eu3+ ion concentrations. A marginal increase in lifetime of the 5D0 level has been noticed with increase in Eu3+ ion concentration from 0.1 mol% to 2.0 mol%. Among all the glasses, the glass with 2.0 mol% of Eu3+ ion concentration possesses maximum values of branching ratio, stimulated emission cross-section and quantum efficiency for the transition 5D0→7F2 (612 nm) in bright red region. The color chromaticity coordinates are also evaluated to confirm the reddish luminescence from these glasses. These color coordinates exactly fall in the bright red region. Confocal images also recorded to confirm reddish luminescence from these glasses. From all the obtained results in the present study, it is suggested that the glass with 2.0 mol% of Eu3+ ion concentration is suitable to emit bright red color laser.

Keywords: Europium, Judd-Ofelt parameters, laser, luminescence

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