Search results for: risk priority number

Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: Jacek Kabzinski, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Ireneusz Majsterek

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The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing from year to year. Despite intensive research CRC etiology remains unknown. Studies suggest that at the basis of the process of carcinogenesis can lie reduced efficiency of DNA repair mechanisms, often caused by polymorphisms in DNA repair genes. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Pro242Arg of PolB gene and Arg780His of Lig3 gene and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 780Arg/His of Lig3 gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. On the basis of these results, we conclude that Lig3 gene polymorphism Arg780His may be associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Keywords: BER, colorectal cancer, PolB, Lig3, polymorphisms

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Authors: Masanori Kimura

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Due to the decline of the 18-year-old population, Japanese universities have a tendency to convert their form of employment from tenured positions to fixed-term positions for newly hired teachers. The advantage of this is that universities can be more flexible in their employment plans in case they fail to fill the enrollment of quotas of prospective students or they need to supplement teachers who can engage in other academic fields or research areas where new demand is expected. The most serious disadvantage of this, however, is that if secure positions cannot be provided to faculty members, there is the possibility that coherence of education and continuity of research supported by the university cannot be achieved. Therefore, the question of this presentation is as follows: Are universities aiming to give first priority to management, or are they trying to prioritize educational and research rather than management? To answer this question, the author examined the number of job offerings for college foreign language teachers posted on the JREC-IN (Japan Research Career Information Network, which is run by Japan Science and Technology Agency) website from April 2012 to October 2015. The results show that there were 1,002 and 1,056 job offerings for tenured positions and fixed-term contracts respectively, suggesting that, overall, today’s Japanese universities show a tendency to give first priority to management. More detailed examinations of the data, however, show that the tendency slightly varies depending on the types of universities. National universities which are supported by the central government and state universities which are supported by local governments posted more job offerings for tenured positions than for fixed-term contracts: national universities posted 285 and 257 job offerings for tenured positions and fixed-term contracts respectively, and state universities posted 106 and 86 job offerings for tenured positions and fixed-term contracts respectively. Yet the difference in number between the two types of employment status at national and state universities is marginal. As for private universities, they posted 713 job offerings for fixed-term contracts and 616 offerings for tenured positions. Moreover, 73% of the fixed-term contracts were offered for low rank positions including associate professors, lectures, and so forth. Generally speaking, those positions are offered to younger teachers. Therefore, this result indicates that private universities attempt to cut their budgets yet expect the same educational effect by hiring younger teachers. Although the results have shown that there are some differences in personal strategies among the three types of universities, the author argues that all three types of universities may lose important human resources that will take a pivotal role at their universities in the future unless they urgently review their employment strategies.

Keywords: higher education, management, employment status, foreign language education

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Toan Vu Duc, Son Ha Viet

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This research presents the first comprehensive survey of congener profiles (7 indicator congeners) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in sediment samples covering ten sites in CauBay River, Vietnam. Chemical analyses were carried out in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) for tri- to hepta- brominated congeners. Results pointed out a non-homogenous contamination of the sediment with ∑7 PBDE values ranging from 8.93 to 25.64ng g−1, reflecting moderate to low contamination closely in conformity to other Asian aquatic environments. The general order of decreasing congener contribution to the total load was: BDE 47 > 99 > 100 > 154, similar to the distribution pattern worldwide. PBDEs had rare risks in the sediment of studied area. However, due to the propensity of PBDEs to accumulate in various compartments of wildlife and human food webs, evaluation of biological tissues should be undertaken as a high priority.

Keywords: residue, risk assessment, PBDEs, sediment

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Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler

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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.

Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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Authors: Hamid Reza Ranjbar, Ali Reza Azmoude Ardalan, Hamid Dehghani, Mohammad Reza Sarajian

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Natural disasters are unexpected events which predicting them is difficult. Earthquake is one of the most devastating disasters among natural hazards with high rate of mortality and wide extent of damages. After the earthquake occurrence, managing the critical condition and allocating limited relief sources requiring a complete awareness of damaged area. The information for allocating relief teams should be precise and reliable as much as possible, and be presented in the appropriate time after the earthquake occurrence. This type of information was previously presented in the form of a damage map; conducting relief teams by using damage map mostly lead to waste of time for finding alive occupants under the rubble. In this research, a proposed standard for prioritizing damaged buildings in terms of requiring rescue and relief was presented. This standard prioritizes damaged buildings into four levels of priority including very high, high, moderate and low by considering key parameters such as type of land use, activity time, and inactivity time of each land use, time of earthquake occurrence and distinct index. The priority map by using the proposed standard could be a basis for guiding relief teams towards the areas with high relief priority.

Keywords: Damage map, GIS, priority map, USAR

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: Minh Dong Le, Viet Dung Nguyen, Do Huu Viet, Nguyen Huu Tu

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In this paper, we present a new method for circumscribed masses detection in mammograms. Our method is evaluated on 23 mammographic images of circumscribed masses and 20 normal mammograms from public Mini-MIAS database. The method is quite sanguine with sensitivity (SE) of 95% with only about 1 false positive per image (FPpI). To achieve above results we carry out a progression following: Firstly, the input images are preprocessed with the aim to enhance key information of circumscribed masses; Next, we calculate and evaluate statistically basic features of abnormal regions on training database; Then, mammograms on testing database are divided into equal blocks which calculated corresponding features. Finally, using priority order of basic features to classify blocks as an abnormal or normal regions.

Keywords: mammograms, circumscribed masses, evaluated statistically, priority order of basic features

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Authors: Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Elysa V. Largo, Monet Concepcion M. Detras, Neil C. Concibido

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The electricity demand is still increasing, and currently, the Philippine government is investigating the feasibility of operating the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to address the country’s energy problem. However, the lack of process safety studies on BNPP focused on the effects of hazardous substances on the integrity of the structure, equipment, and other components, have made the plant operationalization questionable to the public. The three major nuclear power plant incidents – TMI-2, Chernobyl, and Fukushima – have made many people hesitant to include nuclear energy in the energy matrix. This study focused on the safety evaluation of possible operations of a nuclear power plant installed with a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), which is similar to BNPP. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) techniques used for the identification of equipment failure modes and minimizing its consequences. Using the FMEA technique, this study was able to recognize 116 different failure modes in total. Upon computation and ranking of the risk priority number (RPN) and criticality rating (CR), it showed that failure of the reactor coolant pump due to earthquakes is the most critical failure mode. This hazard scenario could lead to a nuclear meltdown and radioactive release, as identified by the FMEA team. Safeguards and recommended risk reduction strategies to lower the RPN and CR were identified such that the effects are minimized, the likelihood of occurrence is reduced, and failure detection is improved.

Keywords: PHA, FMEA, nuclear power plant, bataan nuclear power plant

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Authors: Faruk Aras, Melih Inal, Tansel Cinar

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The coordination of airport staff especially in the operations and maintenance departments is important for the airport operation. As a result, this coordination will increase the efficiency in all operation. Therefore, a Collaborative Decision-Making (CDM) system targets on improving the overall productivity of all operations by optimizing the use of resources and improving the predictability of actions. Enlarged productivity can be of major benefit for all airport operations. It also increases cost-efficiency. This study explains how predictive maintenance using IoT (Internet of Things), predictive operations and the statistical data such as Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) improves airport terminal operations and utilize airport terminal equipment in collaboration with collaborative decision making system/Airport Operation Control Center (AOCC). Data generated by the predictive maintenance methods is retrieved and analyzed by maintenance managers to predict when a problem is about to occur. With that information, maintenance can be scheduled when needed. As an example, AOCC operator would have chance to assign a new gate that towards to this gate all the equipment such as travellator, elevator, escalator etc. are operational if the maintenance team is in collaboration with AOCC since maintenance team is aware of the health of the equipment because of predictive maintenance methods. Applying predictive maintenance methods based on analyzing the health of airport terminal equipment dramatically reduces the risk of downtime by on time repairs. We can classify the categories as high priority calls for urgent repair action, as medium priority requires repair at the earliest opportunity, and low priority allows maintenance to be scheduled when convenient. In all cases, identifying potential problems early resulted in better allocation airport terminal resources by AOCC.

Keywords: airport, predictive maintenance, collaborative decision-making system, Airport Operation Control Center (AOCC)

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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Authors: Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Lkhagvadorj Khosbayar, Naidansuren Tsendeekhuu, Densenbal Dansran, Bandi Solongo

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Introduction: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder affecting at least 2% to 4% of the adult population. It is estimated that nearly 80% of men and 93% of women with moderate to severe sleep apnea are undiagnosed. A number of screening questionnaires and clinical screening models have been developed to help identify patients with OSA, also it’s indeed to clinical practice. Purpose of study: Determine dependence of obstructive sleep apnea between for severe risk and risk factor. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study included 114 patients presenting from theCentral state 3th hospital and Central state 1th hospital. Patients who had obstructive sleep apnea (OSA)selected in this study. Standard StopBang questionnaire was obtained from all patients.According to the patients’ response to the StopBang questionnaire was divided into low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk.Descriptive statistics were presented mean ± standard deviation (SD). Each questionnaire was compared on the likelihood ratio for a positive result, the likelihood ratio for a negative test result of regression. Statistical analyses were performed utilizing SPSS 16. Results: 114 patients were obtained (mean age 48 ± 16, male 57)that divided to low risk 54 (47.4%), intermediate risk 33 (28.9%), high risk 27 (23.7%). Result of risk factor showed significantly increasing that mean age (38 ± 13vs. 54 ± 14 vs. 59 ± 10, p<0.05), blood pressure (115 ± 18vs. 133 ± 19vs. 142 ± 21, p<0.05), BMI(24 IQR 22; 26 vs. 24 IQR 22; 29 vs. 28 IQR 25; 34, p<0.001), neck circumference (35 ± 3.4 vs. 38 ± 4.7 vs. 41 ± 4.4, p<0.05)were increased. Results from multiple logistic regressions showed that age is significantly independently factor for OSA (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.23, p<0.01). Predictive value of age was significantly higher factor for OSA (AUC=0.833, 95% CI 0.758-0.909, p<0.001). Our study showing that risk of OSA is beginning 47 years old (sensitivity 78.3%, specifity74.1%). Conclusions: According to most of all patients’ response had intermediate risk and high risk. Also, age, blood pressure, neck circumference and BMI were increased such as risk factor was increased for OSA. Especially age is independently factor and highest significance for OSA. Patients’ age one year is increased likelihood risk factor 1.1 times is increased.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea, Stop-Bang, BMI (Body Mass Index), blood pressure

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: job safety, SME, work risk, risk management

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Tahereh Samenian

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There is ample evidence that source and goal are disproportionately expressed in languages, and goal usually plays a more prominent role than source. The results show that the mismatch between the goal and the source is not entirely rooted in non-linguistic behaviors, i.e. that linguistic descriptions also show the focus of the goal on the source in events; Non-verbal memory for events, on the other hand, indicates that the focus of the goal is only on events that are purposefully moving and the actor is alive. In the present study, an attempt is made to examine the principle of priority of the goal over the source by focusing on Persian directional motion verbs. For this purpose, 117 Persian directional motion verbs have been selected from the dictionary and data for them have been collected from the body of Bijan Khan and the components of goal and source have been identified in sentences and the prominence of the components of goal and source has been shown in the form of diagrams. As it was obtained from the data, Persian motion-directional verbs also showed the bias of the goal over source in motion events.

Keywords: motion-directional verbs, priority of goal over source principle, cognitive factors, linguistic factors

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Ali Rostami

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The objective of off-site construction manufacturing is to utilise the workforce and machinery in a controlled environment without external interference for higher productivity and quality. The usage of prefabricated components can save up to 14% of the total energy consumption in comparison with the equivalent number of cast-in-place ones. Despite the benefits of prefabrication construction, its current project practices encompass technical and managerial issues. Building design, precast components’ production, logistics, and prefabrication installation processes are still mostly discontinued and fragmented. Furthermore, collaboration among prefabrication manufacturers, transportation parties, and on-site assemblers rely on real-time information such as the status of precast components, delivery progress, and the location of components. From the technical point of view, in this industry, geometric variability is still prevalent, which can be caused during the transportation or production of components. These issues indicate that there are still many aspects of prefabricated construction that can be developed using disruptive technologies. Practical real-time risk analysis can be used to address these issues as well as the management of safety, quality, and construction environment issues. On the other hand, the lack of research about risk assessment and the absence of standards and tools hinder risk management modeling in prefabricated construction. It is essential to note that no risk management standard has been established explicitly for prefabricated construction projects, and most software packages do not provide tailor-made functions for this type of projects.

Keywords: project risk management, risk analysis, risk modelling, prefabricated construction projects

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Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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Authors: Guldana Zhigerbayeva, Ming Yang

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Transportation of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) is inevitable in the process industries. The statistics show a significant number of accidents has occurred during the transportation of HAZMAT. This makes risk management of HAZMAT transportation an important topic. The tree-based methods including fault-trees, event-trees and cause-consequence analysis, and Bayesian network, have been applied to risk management of HAZMAT transportation. However, there is limited work on the development of a systematic approach. The existing approaches fail to build up the linkages between the regulatory requirements and the safety measures development. The analysis of historical data from the past accidents’ report databases would limit our focus on the specific incidents and their specific causes. Thus, we may overlook some essential elements in risk management, including regulatory compliance, field expert opinions, and suggestions. A systematic approach is needed to translate the regulatory requirements of HAZMAT transportation into specified safety measures (both technical and administrative) to support the risk management process. This study aims to first adapt the House of Quality (HoQ) to House of Safety (HoS) and proposes a new approach- Safety Function Deployment (SFD). The results of SFD will be used in a multi-criteria decision-support system to develop find an optimal route for HazMats transportation. The proposed approach will be demonstrated through a hypothetical transportation case in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: hazardous materials, risk assessment, risk management, quality function deployment

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Authors: Joseph Kimuli Balikuddembe

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Road traffic incidents (RTIs) continue to be a serious public health and development burden around the globe. Compared to high-income countries (HICs), the low and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear the heaviest brunt of RTIs. Like other LMICs, Uganda, a country located in Eastern Africa, has been experiencing a worryingly high burden of RTIs and their associated impacts. Over the years, the highest number of all the total registered RTIs in Uganda has taken place in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). This places a tremendous demand on the few existing emergency medical services (EMS) to adequately respond to those affected. In this regard, the overall objective of the study was to risk map RTIs in the GKMA so as to help in the better planning of EMS for the victims of RTIs. Other objectives included: (i) identifying the factors affecting the exposure, vulnerability and EMS capacity for the victims of RTIs; (ii) identifying the RTI prone-areas and estimating their associated risk factors; (iii) identifying the weaknesses and capacities which affect the EMS systems for RTIs; and (iv) determining the strategies and priority actions that can help to improve the EMS response for RTI victims in the GKMA. To achieve these objectives, a mixed methodological approach was used in four phrases for approximately 15 months. It employed a systematic review based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-data analysis guidelines; a Delphi panel technique; retrospective data analysis; and a cross-sectional method. With Uganda progressing forward as envisaged in its 'Vision 2040', the GKMA, which is the country’s political and socioeconomic epicenter, is experiencing significant changes in terms of population growth, urbanization, infrastructure development, rapid motorization and other factors. Unless appropriate actions are taken, these changes are likely to worsen the already alarming rate of RTIs in Uganda, and in turn also to put pressure on the few existing EMS and facilities to render care for those affected. Therefore, road safety vis-à-vis injury prevention measures, which are needed to reduce the burden of RTIs, should be multifaceted in nature so that they closely correlate with the ongoing dynamics that contribute to RTIs, particularly in the GKMA and Uganda as a whole.

Keywords: emergency medical services, Kampala, risk mapping, road traffic incidents

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Authors: Alexander Marx

Abstract:

Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Mehran Zarghami, Jamshid Yazdani Jarati, Mun-Sunn Lye

Abstract:

Fathers may be at risk of depression during the postpartum period. Some studies have been reported maternal depression is the key predictor of paternal postpartum depression (PPD). This study aimed to explore this association. Using a cross-sectional study design, 591 couples referring to primary health centers at 2-8 weeks postpartum (during 2017) were recruited. Couples screened for depression using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Data on socio-demographic characteristics and psychosocial factors was also gathered. Paternal PPD was analyzed in relation to maternal PPD and other related factors using multiple regressions. The prevalence of Paternal and maternal postpartum depression was 15.7% (93) and 31.8% (188), respectively. The regression model showed that there was increased risk of PPD in fathers whose wives experienced PPD [OR=1.15, (95%CI: 1.04-1.27)], who had a lower state of general health [OR=1.21, (95%CI: 1.11-1.33)], who experienced increased number of life events [OR=1.42, (95%CI: 1.01-1.2.00)], and who were at older age [OR=1.20, (95%CI: 1.05- 1.36)]. Also, there was a decreased risk of depression in fathers with more children compared with those with fewer children [OR=0.20, (95%CI: 0.07-0.53)]. Maternal PPD and psychosocial risk factors were the strong predictors of parental PPD. Being grown up in a family with two depressed parents are an important issue for children and needs futher research and attention.

Keywords: Father, Mother, Postpartum depression, Risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Su Xiaohan, Jin Chicheng, Liu Yijing, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

Abstract:

Energy-aware scheduling in real-time systems aims to minimize energy consumption, but issues related to resource reservation and timing constraints remain challenges. This study focuses on analyzing two scheduling algorithms, Fair-Share Scheduling (FFS) and Priority-Driven Preemptive Scheduling (PDPS), for solving these issues and energy-aware scheduling in real-time systems. Based on research on both algorithms and the processes of solving two problems, it can be found that Fair-Share Scheduling ensures fair allocation of resources but needs to improve with an imbalanced system load, and Priority-Driven Preemptive Scheduling prioritizes tasks based on criticality to meet timing constraints through preemption but relies heavily on task prioritization and may not be energy efficient. Therefore, improvements to both algorithms with energy-aware features will be proposed. Future work should focus on developing hybrid scheduling techniques that minimize energy consumption through intelligent task prioritization, resource allocation, and meeting time constraints.

Keywords: energy-aware scheduling, fair-share scheduling, priority-driven preemptive scheduling, real-time systems, optimization, resource reservation, timing constraints

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

Abstract:

Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

Procedia PDF Downloads 545