Search results for: risk management failure

Authors: Akram Khaleghei, Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction

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Authors: Michel A. Thomet

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A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

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Authors: Binjuan Xu, Qian Zhao, Ping Jiang, Bo Guo, Zhijun Cheng, Xiaoyue Wu

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Astronautical valves are key units in engine systems of astronautical products; their reliability will influence results of rocket or missile launching, even lead to damage to staff and devices on the ground. Besides failure in engine system may influence the hitting accuracy and flight shot of missiles. Therefore high reliability is quite essential to astronautical products. There are quite a few literature doing research based on few failure test data to estimate valves’ reliability, thus this paper proposed a new method to estimate valves’ reliability, according to the corresponding tests of different failure modes, this paper takes advantage of tests data which acquired from temperature, vibration, and action tests to estimate reliability in every failure modes, then this paper has regarded these three kinds of tests as three stages in products’ process to integrate these results to acquire valves’ reliability. Through the comparison of results achieving from tests data and simulated data, the results have illustrated how to obtain valves’ reliability based on the few failure data with failure modes and prove that the results are effective and rational.

Keywords: censored data, temperature tests, valves, vibration tests

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Authors: Mojtaba Sadeghi, Farshid Baniassadi, Hamed Kashani

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One of the challenging issues faced by seismic retrofitting consultants and employers is quick decision-making on the demolition or retrofitting of a structure at the current time or in the future. For this reason, the existing models proposed by researchers have only covered one of the aspects of cost, execution method, and structural vulnerability. Given the effect of each factor on the final decision, it is crucial to devise a new comprehensive model capable of simultaneously covering all the factors. This study attempted to provide an integrated framework that can be utilized to select the most appropriate earthquake risk mitigation solution for buildings. This framework can overcome the limitations of current models by taking into account several factors such as cost, execution method, risk-taking and structural failure. In the newly proposed model, the database and essential information about retrofitting projects are developed based on the historical data on a retrofit project. In the next phase, an analysis is conducted in order to assess the vulnerability of the building under study. Then, artificial neural networks technique is employed to calculate the cost of retrofitting. While calculating the current price of the structure, an economic analysis is conducted to compare demolition versus retrofitting costs. At the next stage, the optimal method is identified. Finally, the implementation of the framework was demonstrated by collecting data concerning 155 previous projects.

Keywords: decision making, demolition, construction management, seismic retrofit

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Authors: Mahfoud Djebbar

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The past two decades or so have witnessed phenomenal growth of the Islamic financial services industry. The whole industry has been thriving at about 15 percent per annum. This development entails the Islamic financial engineering, IFE, to some kind of crossroads, lagging behind its conventional counterpart. Therefore, IFE, and particularly traded products development, and in order to achieve its goals, two approaches are available, i.e., replicating engineering and innovative engineering. We also try to emphasis the innovative strategy since it guards the Islamic identity of different financial products and processes, and thereby, improves the creativity in the Islamic financial industry. The attempt also centers on sukukization (Islamic securitization), innovation, liquidity management, and risk management and hedging in the Islamic financial system. Finally, the challenges facing IFE are also addressed.

Keywords: islamic financial engineering, hedging and risk management, innovation, securitization, money market instruments, islamic capital markets

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Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin

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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring

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Authors: Daniel K. Gameti

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The paper explored the effects of active and passive entrepreneurship education methods on the venture creation intention of undergraduate students in Ghana. The study also examined the moderating effect of gender and negative personal characteristics (risk tolerance, stress tolerance and fear of failure) on students’ venture creation intention. Deductive approach was used in collecting quantitative data from 555 business students from one public university and one private university through self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistic was used to determine the dominant method of entrepreneurship education used in Ghana. Further, structural equation model was used to test four hypotheses. The results of the study show that the dominant method of education used in Ghana was lectures and the least method used was field trip. The study further revealed that passive methods of education are less effective compared to active methods which were statistically significant in venture creation intention among students. There was also statistical difference between male and female students’ venture creation intention but stronger among male students and finally, the only personal characteristics that influence students’ intention was stress tolerance because risk tolerance and fear of failure were statistically insignificant.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, Ghana, moderating variables, venture creation intention, undergraduate students

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Authors: Ali Nour El Hajj

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Background: The perennial deficiencies of the failure models in the materials field have profoundly and significantly impacted all associated technical fields that depend on accurate failure predictions. Many preeminent and well-known scientists from an earlier era of groundbreaking discoveries attempted to solve the issue of material failure. However, a thorough understanding of material failure has been frustratingly elusive. Objective: The heart of this study is the presentation of a methodology that identifies a newly derived one-parameter criterion as the only general failure theory for noncompressible, homogeneous, and isotropic materials subjected to multiaxial states of stress and various boundary conditions, providing the solution to this longstanding problem. This theory is the counterpart and companion piece to the theory of elasticity and is in a formalism that is suitable for broad application. Methods: Utilizing advanced finite-element analysis, the maximum internal breaking stress corresponding to the maximum applied external force is identified as a unified and universal material failure criterion for determining the structural capacity of any system, regardless of its geometry or architecture. Results: A comparison between the proposed criterion and methodology against design codes reveals that current provisions may underestimate the structural capacity by 2.17 times or overestimate the capacity by 2.096 times. It also shows that existing standards may underestimate the structural capacity by 1.4 times or overestimate the capacity by 2.49 times. Conclusion: The proposed failure criterion and methodology will pave the way for a new era in designing unconventional structural systems composed of unconventional materials.

Keywords: failure criteria, strength theory, failure mechanics, materials mechanics, rock mechanics, concrete strength, finite-element analysis, mechanical engineering, aeronautical engineering, civil engineering

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Shweh Fern Loo, Jun Yin Ong, Than Zaw Oo

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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common serious condition of bilateral lung infiltrates that develops secondary to various underlying conditions such as diseases or injuries. ARDS with severe hypercapnia is associated with higher ICU mortality and morbidity. Venovenous Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) support has been established to avert life-threatening hypoxemia and hypercapnic respiratory failure despite optimal conventional mechanical ventilation. However, VV-ECMO is relatively not advisable in particular groups of patients, especially in multi-organ failure, advanced age, hemorrhagic complications and irreversible central nervous system pathology. We presented a case of a 79-year-old Chinese lady without any pre-existing lung disease admitted to our hospital intensive care unit (ICU) after acute presentation of breathlessness and chest pain. After extensive workup, she was diagnosed with rapidly progressing acute interstitial pneumonia with ARDS and hypercapnia respiratory failure. The patient received lung protective strategies of mechanical ventilation and neuromuscular blockage therapy as per clinical guidelines. However, hypercapnia respiratory failure was refractory, and she was deemed not a good candidate for VV-ECMO support given her advanced age and high vasopressor requirements from shock. Alternative therapy with extracorporeal CO2 removal (ECCO2R) was considered and implemented. The patient received 12 days of ECCO2R paired with muscle paralysis, optimization of lung-protective mechanical ventilation and dialysis. Unfortunately, the patient still had refractory hypercapnic respiratory failure with dual vasopressor support despite prolonged therapy. Given failed and futile medical treatment, the family opted for withdrawal of care, a conservative approach, and comfort care, which led to her demise. The effectivity of extracorporeal CO2 removal may depend on disease burden, involvement and severity of the disease. There is insufficient data to make strong recommendations about its benefit-risk ratio for ECCO2R devices, and further studies and data would be required. Nonetheless, ECCO2R can be considered an alternative treatment for refractory hypercapnic respiratory failure patients who are unsuitable for initiating venovenous ECMO.

Keywords: extracorporeal CO2 removal (ECCO2R), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP), hypercapnic respiratory failure

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Maggie Hui

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Risk management is not a new concept; however, it is an uncharted area as applied to the translation process and translator training. Serving as one of the self-discovery activities in their practicum course, a two-cycle experiment was carried out with a class of 13 MA translation students with an attempt to explore their risk management while translating in a simulated setting that involves translator-client relations. To test the effects of the main variable of translators’ interaction with the simulated clients, the researcher employed control-group translators and two experiment groups (with Group A being the translator in Cycle 1 and the client in Cycle 2, and Group B on the client position in Cycle 1 and the translator position in Cycle 2). Experiment cycle 1 aims to explore if there would be any behavioral difference in risk management between translators with interaction with the simulated clients, i.e. experiment group A, and their counterparts without such interaction, i.e. control group. Design of Cycle 2 concerns the order of playing different roles of the translator and client in the experiment, and provides information to compare behavior of translators of the two experiment groups. Since this is process-oriented research, it is necessary to hypothesize what was happening in the translators’ minds. The researcher made use of a user-friendly screen-voice recording freeware to record subjects’ screen activities, including every word the translator typed and every change they made to the rendition, the websites they browsed and the reference tools they used, in addition to the verbalization of their thoughts throughout the process. The research observes the translation procedures subjects considered and finally adopted, and looks into the justifications for their procedures, in order to interpret their risk management. The qualitative and quantitative results of this study have some implications for translator training: (a) the experience of being a client seems to reinforce the translator’s risk aversion; (b) the use of role-playing simulation can empower students’ learning by enhancing their attitudinal or psycho-physiological competence, interpersonal competence and strategic competence; and (c) the screen-voice recordings serve as a helpful tool for learners to reflect on their rendition processes, i.e. what they performed satisfactorily and unsatisfactorily while translating and what they could do for improvement in future translation tasks.

Keywords: risk management, screen-voice recordings, simulated translator-client relations, translation pedagogy, translation process-oriented research

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: Elin Cahyaningsih, Dana Indra Sensuse, Wahyu Catur Wibowo, Sofiyanti Indriasari

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Bureaucracy reform program drives Indonesian government to change their management and supporting unit in order to enhance their organization performance. Information technology as one of supporting unit became one of strategic plan that organization tried to improve, because IT can automate and speed up process, reduce business process life cycle become more effective and efficient. Knowledge management system is a technology application for supporting knowledge management implementation in government which is requirement based on problem and potential functionality of each knowledge management process. Define knowledge management that suitable for each organization it is difficult, that why we should make the knowledge management system strategy as an alignment of knowledge management process in the organization. Knowledge management system is one of information system development in people perspective, because this system has high dependency in human interaction and participation. Strategic plan for developing knowledge management system can be determine using some of information system strategic methods. This research conducted to define type of strategic method of information system, stage of activity each method, the strategic method strength and weakness. The author use literature review methods for identify and classify strategic methods of information system for differentiate method type, categorize common activities, strength and weakness. Result of this research are determine and compare six strategic information system methods, there are Balanced Scorecard, Five Force Porter, SWOT analysis, Value Chain Analysis, Risk Analysis and Gap Analysis. Balanced Scorecard and Risk Analysis believe as common strategic method that usually used and have the highest excellence strength.

Keywords: knowledge management system, balanced scorecard, five force, risk analysis, gap analysis, value chain analysis, SWOT analysis

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Authors: Petar Dobrev

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There is no agreed-upon definition of firm quality. While profitability and stock performance often qualify as popular proxies of quality, in this project, we aim to identify quality without relying on a firm’s financial statements or stock returns as selection criteria. Instead, we use firm-level data on management practices across small to medium-sized U.S. manufacturing firms from the World Management Survey (WMS) to measure firm quality. Each firm in the WMS dataset is assigned a mean management score from 0 to 5, with higher scores identifying better-managed firms. This management score serves as our proxy for firm quality and is the sole criteria we use to separate firms into portfolios comprised of high-quality and low-quality firms. We define high-quality (low-quality) firms as those firms with a management score of one standard deviation above (below) the mean. To study whether this proxy for firm quality can identify better-performing firms, we link this data to Compustat and The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) to obtain firm-level data on financial performance and monthly stock returns, respectively. We find that from 1999 to 2019 (our sample data period), firms in the high-quality portfolio are consistently more profitable — higher operating profitability and return on equity compared to low-quality firms. In addition, high-quality firms also exhibit a lower risk of bankruptcy — a higher Altman Z-score. Next, we test whether the stocks of the firms in the high-quality portfolio earn superior risk-adjusted excess returns. We regress the monthly excess returns on each portfolio on the Fama-French 3-factor, 4-factor, and 5-factor models, the betting-against-beta factor, and the quality-minus-junk factor. We find no statistically significant differences in excess returns between both portfolios, suggesting that stocks of high-quality (well managed) firms do not earn superior risk-adjusted returns compared to low-quality (poorly managed) firms. In short, our proxy for firm quality, the WMS management score, can identify firms with superior financial performance (higher profitability and reduced risk of bankruptcy). However, our management proxy cannot identify stocks that earn superior risk-adjusted returns, suggesting no statistically significant relationship between managerial quality and stock performance.

Keywords: excess stock returns, management, profitability, quality

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Yu Chen

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This paper investigates the influence of flaw on failure process of rock-like material under uniaxial compression. In laboratory, the uniaxial compression tests of intact specimens and a series of specimens within single flaw were conducted. The inclination angle of flaws includes 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75° and 90°. Based on the laboratory tests, the corresponding models of numerical simulation were built and loaded in PFC2D. After analysing the crack initiation and failure modes, deformation field, and energy mechanism for both laboratory tests and numerical simulation, it can be concluded that the influence of flaws on the failure process is determined by its inclination. The characteristic stresses increase as flaw angle rising basically. The tensile cracks develop from gentle flaws (α ≤ 30°) and the shear cracks develop from other flaws. The propagation of cracks changes during failure process and the failure mode of a specimen corresponds to the orientation of the flaw. A flaw has significant influence on the transverse deformation field at the middle of the specimen, except the 75° and 90° flaw sample. The input energy, strain energy and dissipation energy of specimens show approximate increase trends with flaw angle rising and it presents large difference on the energy distribution.

Keywords: failure pattern, particle deformation field, energy mechanism, PFC

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Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf

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Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.

Keywords: crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges

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Authors: Yusarina Mat-Isa, Zuraidah Mohd-Sanusi, Mohd-Nizal Haniff, Paul A. Barnes

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In view that money laundering has become eminent for banking institutions, it is an obligation for the banking institutions to adopt a risk-based approach as the integral component of the accepted policies on anti-money laundering. In doing so, those involved with the banking operations are the most critical group of personnel as these are the people who deal with the day-to-day operations of the banking institutions and are obligated to form a judgement on the level of impending risk. This requirement is extended to all relevant banking institutions staff, such as tellers and customer account representatives for them to identify suspicious customers and escalate it to the relevant authorities. Banking institutions staffs, however, face enormous challenges in identifying and distinguishing money launderers from other legitimate customers seeking genuine banking transactions. Banking institutions staffs are mostly educated and trained with the business objective in mind to serve the customers and are not trained to be “detectives with a detective’s power of observation”. Despite increasing awareness as well as trainings conducted for the banking institutions staff, their competency in assessing money laundering risk is still insufficient. Several gaps have prompted this study including the lack of behavioural perspectives in the assessment of money laundering risk in the banking institutions. Utilizing experimental approach, respondents are randomly assigned within a controlled setting with manipulated situations upon which judgement of the respondents is solicited based on various observations related to the situations. The study suggests that it is imperative that informed judgement is exercised in arriving at the decision to proceed with the banking services required by the customers. Judgement forms a basis of opinion for the banking institution staff to decide if the customers posed money laundering risk. Failure to exercise good judgement could results in losses and absorption of unnecessary risk into the banking institutions. Although the banking institutions are exposed with choices of automated solutions in assessing money laundering risk, the human factor in assessing the risk is indispensable. Individual staff in the banking institutions is the first line of defence who are responsible for screening the impending risk of any customer soliciting for banking services. At the end of the spectrum, the individual role involvement on the subject of money laundering risk assessment is not a substitute for automated solutions as human judgement is inimitable.

Keywords: banking institutions, experimental approach, money laundering, risk assessment

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Authors: S. Cowley, M. Lawrance, D. Bick, R. McCord

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Technology that automates manual handling (musculoskeletal disorder or MSD) risk assessments is increasingly available to ergonomists, engineers, generalist health and safety practitioners alike. The risk assessment process is generally based on the use of wearable motion sensors that capture information about worker movements for real-time or for posthoc analysis. Traditionally, MSD risk assessment is undertaken with the assistance of a checklist such as that from the SafeWork Australia code of practice, the expert assessor observing the task and ideally engaging with the worker in a discussion about the detail. Automation enables the non-expert to complete assessments and does not always require the assessor to be there. This clearly has cost and time benefits for the practitioner but is it an improvement on the assessment by the human. Human risk assessments draw on the knowledge and expertise of the assessor but, like all risk assessments, are highly subjective. The complexity of the checklists and models used in the process can be off-putting and sometimes will lead to the assessment becoming the focus and the end rather than a means to an end; the focus on risk control is lost. Automated risk assessment handles the complexity of the assessment for the assessor and delivers a simple risk score that enables decision-making regarding risk control. Being machine-based, they are objective and will deliver the same each time they assess an identical task. However, the WHS professional needs to know that this emergent technology asks the right questions and delivers the right answers. Whether it improves the risk assessment process and results or simply distances the professional from the task and the worker. They need clarity as to whether automation of manual task risk analysis and reporting leads to risk control or to a focus on the worker. Critically, they need evidence as to whether automation in this area of hazard management leads to better risk control or just a bigger collection of assessments. Practitioner experienced determinants of this automated manual task risk analysis and reporting being a benefit or distraction will address an understanding of emergent risk assessment technology, its use and things to consider when making decisions about adopting and applying these technologies.

Keywords: automated, manual-handling, risk-assessment, machine-based

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Authors: Moise A.E., State G., Tudorache M., Custură I., Enea D.N., Osman (Defta) A., Drăgotoiu D.

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This scientific paper explores risk management strategies in the food supply chain, with a focus on chicken raw materials, in the context of a company sourcing from the EU and non-EU. The aim of the paper is to adapt the requirements of international standards (IFS, BRC, QS, ITW, FSSC, ISO), proposing efficient methods to identify and remediate non-conformities and corrective and preventive actions. Defining the supply flow and acceptance steps promotes collaboration with suppliers to ensure the quality and safety of raw materials. To assess the risks of suppliers and raw materials, objective criteria are developed and vulnerabilities in the supply chain are analyzed, including the risk of fraud. Active monitoring of international alerts through RASFF helps to identify emerging risks quickly, and regular analysis of international trends and company performance enables continuous adaptation of risk management strategies. Implementing these measures strengthens food safety and consumer confidence in the final products supplied.

Keywords: food supply chain, international standards, quality and safety of raw materials, RASFF

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Mohammad Noor Hisham Osman, Ahmed Razman Abdul Latiff, Zaidi Mat Daud, Zulkarnain Muhamad Sori

Abstract:

The problem that Malaysian auditors do not issue going concern opinion (GC opinion) to seriously financially distressed companies is still a pressing issue. Policy makers, particularly the Financial Statement Review Committee (FSRC) of Malaysian Institute of Accountant, have raised this issue as early as in 2009. Similar problem happened in the US, UK, and many developing countries. It is important for auditors to issue GC opinion properly because such opinion is one signal about the viability of a company much needed by stakeholders. There are at least two unanswered questions or research gaps in the literature on determinants of GC opinion. Firstly, is client’s probability of failure associated with GC opinion issuance? Secondly, to what extent influential owners (management, family, and institution) moderate the association between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. The objective of this study is, therefore, twofold; (1) To examine the extent of the relationship between the probability of client failure and the issuance of GC opinion and (2) To examine the level of management, family, and institutional ownerships moderate the association between client probability of failure and the issuance of GC opinion. This study is quantitative in nature, and the sources of data are secondary (mainly company’s annual reports). A total of four hypotheses have been developed and tested on data accumulated from annual reports of seriously financially distressed Malaysian public listed companies. Data from 2006 to 2012 on a sample of 644 observations have been analyzed using panel logistic regression. It is found that certainty (rather than probability) of client failure affects the issuance of GC opinion. In addition, it is found that only the level of family ownership does positively moderate the relationship between client probability of failure and GC opinion issuance. This study is a contribution to auditing literature as its findings can enhance our understanding about audit quality; particularly on the variables that are associated with the issuance of GC opinion. The findings of this study shed light on the roles family owners in GC opinion issuance process, and this would open ways for the researcher to suggest measures that can be used to tackle the problem of auditors do not want to issue GC opinion to financially distressed clients. The measures to be suggested can be useful to policy makers in formulating future promulgations.

Keywords: audit quality, auditing, auditor characteristics, going concern opinion, Malaysia

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Authors: Abderafi Charki, David Bigaud

Abstract:

The aim of this oral speach is to present the PVMODREL© (PhotoVoltaic MODule RELiability) new software developed in the University of Angers. This new tool permits us to evaluate the lifetime and reliability of a PV module whatever its geographical location and environmental conditions. The electrical power output of a PV module decreases with time mainly as a result of the effects of corrosion, encapsulation discoloration, and solder bond failure. The failure of a PV module is defined as the point where the electrical power degradation reaches a given threshold value. Accelerated life tests (ALTs) are commonly used to assess the reliability of a PV module. However, ALTs provide limited data on the failure of a module and these tests are expensive to carry out. One possible solution is to conduct accelerated degradation tests. The Wiener process in conjunction with the accelerated failure time model makes it possible to carry out numerous simulations and thus to determine the failure time distribution based on the aforementioned threshold value. By this means, the failure time distribution and the lifetime (mean and uncertainty) can be evaluated. An example using the damp heat test is shown to demonstrate the usefulness PVMODREL.

Keywords: lifetime, reliability, PV Module, accelerated life testing, accelerated degradation testing

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Authors: A. Falsafi, M. Dadkhah, S. Shahidi

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The destruction and defeat of drill pipes and drill rigs in oil wells often combined with a combination of shear modulus II and III. In such a situation, the strength and load bearing capacity of the drill are evaluated based on the principles of fracture mechanics and crack growth criteria. In this paper, using the three-dimensional stress equations around the Turkish frontier, the relations of the tense-tense criterion (MTS) are extracted for the loading of the combined II and III modulus. It is shown that in crisp deflection under loading of combination II and III, the level of fracture is characterized by two different angles: the longitudinal angle of deflection θ and the angle of the deflection of the alpha. Based on the relationships obtained from the MTS criterion, the failure criteria, the longitudinal angle of the theta failure and the lateral angle of the failure of the alpha are presented. Also, the role of Poisson's coefficient on these parameters is investigated in these graphs.

Keywords: most tangential tension criterion, longitudinal angle of failure, side angle of fracture, drills crack

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Authors: Alex Hughes

Abstract:

Patients with advanced heart failure develop specific palliative care needs due to the progressive symptom burden and unpredictable disease trajectory. NICE guidance advises that palliative care should be provided to patients with both cancer and non-cancer conditions as and when required. However, there is some way to go before this guidance is consistently and effectively implemented nationwide in conditions such as heart failure. The Ambitions for Palliative and End of Life Care: A national framework for local action in England provides a set of foundations and ambitions which outline a vision for what high-quality palliative and end-of-life care look like in England. This poster aims to critically consider how to improve access to palliative care for heart failure patients in England by analysing the foundations taken from this framework to generate specific recommendations using Soft Systems Methodology (SSM). The eight foundations analysed are: ‘Personalised care planning’, ‘Shared records’, ‘Evidence and information’, ‘Involving, supporting and caring for those important to the dying Person’, ‘Education and training’, ‘24/7 access’, ‘Co-design’ and ‘Leadership.’ A number of specific recommendations have been generated which highlight a need to close the evidence-policy gap and implement policy with sufficient evidence. These recommendations, alongside the creation of an evidence-based national strategy for palliative care and heart failure, should improve access to palliative care for heart failure patients in England. Once implemented, it will be necessary to evaluate the effect of these proposals to understand if access to palliative care for heart failure patients actually improves.

Keywords: access, health systems, heart failure, palliative care

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Authors: Sameen Masood, Muhammad Ali Jibran

Abstract:

The frequent flood history in Pakistan has pronounced the need for disaster risk management. Various policies are formulated and steps are being taken by the government in order to cope with the flood effects. However, a much promising pro-active approach that is globally acknowledged is educating the masses regarding living with risk and uncertainty. Unfortunately, majority of the flood victims in Pakistan are poor and illiterate which also transpires as a significant cause of their distress. An illiterate population is not risk averse or equipped intellectually regarding how to prepare and protect against natural disasters. The current research utilizes a cross-disciplinary approach where the role of education (both formal and informal) and indigenous knowledge is explored with reference to disaster preparedness. The data was collected from the flood prone rural areas of Punjab. In the absence of disaster curriculum taught in formal schools, informal education disseminated by NGOs and relief and rehabilitation agencies was the only education given to the flood victims. However the educational attainment of flood victims highly correlated with their awareness regarding flood management and disaster preparedness. Moreover, lessons learned from past flood experience generated indigenous knowledge on the basis of which flood victims prepared themselves for any uncertainty. If the future policy regarding disaster preparation integrates indigenous knowledge and then delivers education on the basis of that, it is anticipated that the flood devastations can be much reduced. Education can play a vital role in amplifying perception of risk and taking precautionary measures for disaster. The findings of the current research will provide practical strategies where disaster preparedness through education has not yet been applied.

Keywords: education, disaster preparedness, illiterate population, risk management

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Authors: M. S. Meon, M. N. Rao, K-U. Schröder

Abstract:

Mechanical fasteners especially bolting is commonly used in joining carbon-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite structures due to their good joinability and easy for maintenance characteristics. Since this approach involves with notching, a proper progressive damage model (PDM) need to be implemented and verified to capture existence of damages in the structure. A three dimensional (3D) failure criteria of Puck is established to predict the ultimate bearing failure of such joint. The failure criteria incorporated with degradation scheme are coded based on user subroutine executed in Abaqus. Single lap joint (SLJ) of composite bolted joint is used as target configuration. The results revealed that the PDM adopted here could sufficiently predict the behaviour of composite bolted joint up to ultimate bearing failure. In addition, mesh refinement near holes increased the accuracy of predicted strength as well as computational effort.

Keywords: bearing strength, bolted joint, degradation scheme, progressive damage model

Procedia PDF Downloads 467

Authors: B. Petrović, M. Petrović, L. Rutonjski, I. Djan, V. Ivanović

Abstract:

Objective: Cardiac pacemakers are very sensitive to radiotherapy treatment from two sources: electromagnetic influence from the medical linear accelerator producing ionizing radiation- influencing electronics within the pacemaker, and the absorption of dose to the device. On the other hand, patients with cardiac pacemakers at the place of a tumor are rather rare, and single clinic hardly has experience with the management of such patients. The widely accepted international guidelines for management of radiation oncology patients recommend that these patients should be closely monitored and examined before, during and after radiotherapy treatment by cardiologist, and their device and condition followed up. The number of patients having both cancer and pacemaker, is growing every year, as both cancer incidence, as well as cardiac diseases incidence, are inevitably growing figures. Materials and methods: Female patient, age 69, was diagnozed with valvular cardiomyopathy and got implanted a pacemaker in 2005 and prosthetic mitral valve in 1993 (cancer was diagnosed in 2012). She was stable cardiologically and came to radiation therapy department with the diagnosis of right breast cancer, with the tumor in upper lateral quadrant of the right breast. Since she had all lymph nodes positive (28 in total), she had to have irradiated the supraclavicular region, as well as the breast with the tumor bed. She previously received chemotherapy, approved by the cardiologist. The patient was estimated to be with the high risk as device was within the field of irradiation, and the patient had high dependence on her pacemaker. The radiation therapy plan was conducted as 3D conformal therapy. The delineated target was breast with supraclavicular region, where the pacemaker was actually placed, with the addition of a pacemaker as organ at risk, to estimate the dose to the device and its components as recommended, and the breast. The targets received both 50 Gy in 25 fractions (where 20% of a pacemaker received 50 Gy, and 60% of a device received 40 Gy). The electrode to the heart received between 1 Gy and 50 Gy. Verification of dose planned and delivered was performed. Results: Evaluation of the patient status according to the guidelines and especially evaluation of all associated risks to the patient during treatment was done. Patient was irradiated by prescribed dose and followed up for the whole year, with no symptoms of failure of the pacemaker device during, or after treatment in follow up period. The functionality of a device was estimated to be unchanged, according to the parameters (electrode impedance and battery energy). Conclusion: Patient was closely monitored according to published guidelines during irradiation and afterwards. Pacemaker irradiated with the full dose did not show any signs of failure despite recommendations data, but in correlation with other published data.

Keywords: cardiac pacemaker, breast cancer, radiotherapy treatment planning, complications of treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 412