Search results for: residual power series method

Authors: Puneet Chawla, Balwinder Singh

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Recently, increased attention has been devoted to the voltage instability phenomenon in power systems. Many techniques have been proposed in the literature for evaluating and predicting voltage stability using steady state analysis methods. In this paper, P-V and Q-V curves have been generated for a 57 bus Patiala Rajpura circle of India. The power-flow program is developed in MATLAB using Newton-Raphson method. Using Q-V curves, the weakest bus of the power system and the maximum reactive power change permissible on that bus is calculated. STATCOMs are placed on the weakest bus to improve the voltage and hence voltage stability and also the power transmission capability of the line.

Keywords: voltage stability, reactive power, power flow, weakest bus, STATCOM

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Authors: Heri Suryoatmojo, Adi Kurniawan, Feby A. Pamuji, Nursalim, Syaffaruddin, Herbert Innah

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Photovoltaic (PV) system hybrid with diesel system is utilized widely for electrification in remote area. PV output power fluctuates due to uncertainty condition of temperature and sun irradiance. When the penetration of PV power is large, the reliability of the power utility will be disturbed and seriously impact the unstable frequency of system. Therefore, designing a robust frequency controller in PV-diesel hybrid power system is very important. This paper proposes new method of frequency control application in hybrid PV-diesel system based on artificial neural network (ANN). This method can minimize the frequency deviation without smoothing PV output power that controlled by maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method. The neural network algorithm controller considers average irradiance, change of irradiance and frequency deviation. In order the show the effectiveness of proposed algorithm, the addition of battery as energy storage system is also presented. To validate the proposed method, the results of proposed system are compared with the results of similar system using MPPT only. The simulation results show that the proposed method able to suppress frequency deviation smaller compared to the results of system using MPPT only.

Keywords: energy storage system, frequency deviation, hybrid power generation, neural network algorithm

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

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Authors: Fatma Soltani

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In power electronics the DC-DC converters or choppers are now employed in large areas, particularly in the field of electricity generation by wind and solar energy conversion. Photovoltaic generators (GPV) can deliver maximum power for a point on the characteristic P = f (Vpv), called maximum power point (MPP), or climatic variations, entraiment fluctuation PPM. To remedy this problem is interposed between the generator and receiver a DC-DC converter. The converter is usually used a simple MOSFET chopper. However, the MOSFET can be applied in the field of low power when you need a high switching frequency but becomes highly dissipative when should block large voltages For PV generators medium and high power, the use of IGBT chopper is by far the most recommended. To reduce stress on semiconductor components using several choppers series connected in parallel is known as interleaved chopper. These choppers lead to rotas.

Keywords: converter DC-DC entrelaced

, photovoltaic generators, IGBT, optimisation

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Authors: Arnold I. Malag

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The study wants to establish the data on the characteristics of coastal solid waste in main Island of Masbate as a model for technology interventions. The research utilized the Google Maps to measure the coastal length and Fishbowl Method for area identification. The solid wastes gathered were classified as residual, non-biodegradable, recyclable wastes, and special wastes, based on the waste analysis and characterization manual of Philippine Environmental Governance Project. The wastes were evaluated by weight in kg., dimension in cm., and characteristics as floating or non-floating. Based on the dimension of coastal solid waste, the biodegradable, recyclable, residual and special waste have the average of 40.95 cm., 16.25 cm., 31.37 cm., and 0.725cm. respectively. The waste in the coastal areas is dominated by biodegradable, followed by residual, then recyclable and special wastes with the data of 0.566 kg/m, 0.533 kg/m, 0.114 kg/m and .0007 kg/m respectively. The 97.15% of solid wastes collected is characterized as “floating”, where in the sources are the nearest rivers and waterways and/or the nearest populated areas adjacent to the island. This accumulation of solid wastes can be minimized and controlled by utilizing a floating equipment.

Keywords: solid waste, coastal waste, waste characterization, waste collector

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Authors: Ratul Das

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The present experimental study insights the decontamination of instantaneous velocity fluctuations captured by Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) in gravel-bed streams to ascertain near-bed turbulence for low Reynolds number. The interference between incidental and reflected pulses produce spikes in the ADV data especially in the near-bed flow zone and therefore filtering the data are very essential. Nortek’s Vectrino four-receiver ADV probe was used to capture the instantaneous three-dimensional velocity fluctuations over a non-cohesive bed. A spike removal algorithm based on the acceleration threshold method was applied to note the bed roughness and its influence on velocity fluctuations and velocity power spectra in the carrier fluid. The velocity power spectra of despiked signals with a best combination of velocity threshold (VT) and acceleration threshold (AT) are proposed which ascertained velocity power spectra a satisfactory fit with the Kolmogorov “–5/3 scaling-law” in the inertial sub-range. Also, velocity distributions below the roughness crest level fairly follows a third-degree polynomial series.

Keywords: acoustic doppler velocimeter, gravel-bed, spike removal, reynolds shear stress, near-bed turbulence, velocity power spectra

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Authors: Sharifullah Ahmed

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Residual settlement of cohesionless or non-plastic soil of different strength underlying highway embankment overlain by stronger soil layer highway embankment is studied. A parametric study is carried out for different height of embankment and for different ESAL factor. The sum of elastic settlements of cohesionless subsoil due to axle induced stress and due to self-weight of pavement layers is termed as the residual settlement. The values of residual settlement (Sr) for different heights of road embankment (He) are obtained and presented as design charts for different SPT Value (N60) and ESAL factor. For rigid pavement and flexible pavement in approach to bridge or culvert, the tolerable residual settlement is 0.100m. This limit is taken as 0.200m for flexible pavement in general sections of highway without approach to bridge or culvert. A simplified guideline is developed for design of highway embankment underlain by very loose to loose cohesionless subsoil overlain by a stronger soil layer for limiting value of the residual settlement. In the current research study range of ESAL factor is 1-10 and range of SPT value (N60) is 1-10. That is found that, ground improvement is not required if the overlying stronger layer is minimum 1.5m and 4.0m for general road section of flexible pavement except bridge or culvert approach and for rigid pavement or flexible pavement in bridge or culvert approach. Tables and charts are included in the prepared guideline to obtain minimum allowable height of highway embankment to limit the residual settlement with in mentioned tolerable limit. Allowable values of the embankment height (He) are obtained corresponding to tolerable or limiting level of the residual settlement of loose subsoil for different SPT value, thickness of stronger layer (d) and ESAL factor. The developed guideline is may be issued to be used in assessment of the necessity of ground improvement in case of cohesionless subsoil underlying highway embankment overlain by stronger subsoil layer for limiting residual settlement. The ground improvement is only to be required if the residual settlement of subsoil is more than tolerable limit.

Keywords: axle pressure, equivalent single axle load, ground improvement, highway embankment, tolerable residual settlement

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Authors: Abiodun Ayodele Sanyaolu

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The research was carried out to investigate the time series analysis on quarterly production of fruit juice at the National Horticultural Research Institute Ibadan from 2010 to 2018. Documentary method of data collection was used, and the method of least square and moving average were used in the analysis. From the calculation and the graph, it was glaring that there was increase, decrease, and uniform movements in both the graph of the original data and the tabulated quarter values of the original data. Time series analysis was used to detect the trend in the highest number of fruit juice and it appears to be good over a period of time and the methods used to forecast are additive and multiplicative models. Since it was observed that the production of fruit juice is usually high in January of every year, it is strongly advised that National Horticultural Research Institute should make more provision for fruit juice storage outside this period of the year.

Keywords: fruit juice, least square, multiplicative models, time series

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Authors: Ravneil Nand

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Cooperative coevolution uses problem decomposition methods to solve a larger problem. The problem decomposition deals with breaking down the larger problem into a number of smaller sub-problems depending on their method. Different problem decomposition methods have their own strengths and limitations depending on the neural network used and application problem. In this paper we are introducing a new problem decomposition method known as Hidden-Neuron Level Decomposition (HNL). The HNL method is competing with established problem decomposition method in time series prediction. The results show that the proposed approach has improved the results in some benchmark data sets when compared to the standalone method and has competitive results when compared to methods from literature.

Keywords: cooperative coevaluation, feed forward network, problem decomposition, neuron, synapse

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Authors: Alexander A. Karabutov, Natalia B. Podymova, Elena B. Cherepetskaya

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The theoretical analysis is carried out to get the relation between the ultrasonic wave velocity and the value of residual stresses. The laser-ultrasonic method is developed to evaluate the residual stresses and subsurface defects in metals. The method is based on the laser thermooptical excitation of longitudinal ultrasonic wave sand their detection by a broadband piezoelectric detector. A laser pulse with the time duration of 8 ns of the full width at half of maximum and with the energy of 300 µJ is absorbed in a thin layer of the special generator that is inclined relative to the object under study. The non-uniform heating of the generator causes the formation of a broadband powerful pulse of longitudinal ultrasonic waves. It is shown that the temporal profile of this pulse is the convolution of the temporal envelope of the laser pulse and the profile of the in-depth distribution of the heat sources. The ultrasonic waves reach the surface of the object through the prism that serves as an acoustic duct. At the interface ‚laser-ultrasonic transducer-object‘ the conversion of the most part of the longitudinal wave energy takes place into the shear, subsurface longitudinal and Rayleigh waves. They spread within the subsurface layer of the studied object and are detected by the piezoelectric detector. The electrical signal that corresponds to the detected acoustic signal is acquired by an analog-to-digital converter and when is mathematically processed and visualized with a personal computer. The distance between the generator and the piezodetector as well as the spread times of acoustic waves in the acoustic ducts are the characteristic parameters of the laser-ultrasonic transducer and are determined using the calibration samples. There lative precision of the measurement of the velocity of longitudinal ultrasonic waves is 0.05% that corresponds to approximately ±3 m/s for the steels of conventional quality. This precision allows one to determine the mechanical stress in the steel samples with the minimal detection threshold of approximately 22.7 MPa. The results are presented for the measured dependencies of the velocity of longitudinal ultrasonic waves in the samples on the values of the applied compression stress in the range of 20-100 MPa.

Keywords: laser-ultrasonic method, longitudinal ultrasonic waves, metals, residual stresses

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Authors: Merzak Laribi, Abdelmadjid Kasser

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Thermal spraying processes are widely used to produce coatings on original constructions as well as in repair and maintenance of long standing structures. A lot of efforts forwarding to develop thermal spray coatings technology have been focused on improving mechanical characteristics, minimizing residual stress level and reducing porosity of the coatings. The specific aim of this paper is to determine either residual stresses distribution or wear resistance of stainless steel coating thermally sprayed on a carbon steel substrate. Internal stresses determination was performed using an extensometric method in combination with a simultaneous progressive electrolytic polishing. The procedure consists of measuring micro-deformations using a bi-directional extensometric gauges glued on the substrate side of the materials. Very thin layers of the deposits are removed by electrochemical polishing across the sample surface. Micro-deformations are instantaneously measured, leading to residual stresses calculation after each removal. Wear resistance of the coating has been determined using a ball-on-plate tribometer. Friction coefficient is instantaneously measured during the tribological test. Attention was particularly focused on the influence of a post-annealing at 850 °C for one hour in vacuum either on the residual stresses distribution or on the wear resistance behavior under specific wear and lubrication conditions. The obtained results showed that the microstructure of the obtained arc sprayed stainless steel coating is classical. It is homogeneous and contains un-melted particles, metallic oxides and also pores and micro-cracks. The internal stresses are in compression in the coating. They are more or less scattered between -50 and -270 MPa on the surface and decreased more at the interface. The value at the surface of the substrate is about –700 MPa, partially due to the molten particles impact with the substrate. The post annealing has reduced the residual stresses in both coating and surface of the steel substrate so that the hole material becomes more relaxed. Friction coefficient has an average value of 0.3 and 0.4 respectively for non annealed and annealed specimen. It is rather oil lubrication which is really benefit so that friction coefficient is decreased to about 0.06.

Keywords: residual stresses, wear resistance, stainless steel, coating, thermal spraying, annealing, lubrication

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Authors: A. Morsli, A. Tlemçani, N. Ould Cherchali, M. S. Boucherit

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This article presents two methods for the compensation of harmonics generated by a nonlinear load. The first is the classic method P-Q. The second is the controller by modern method of artificial intelligence specifically fuzzy logic. Both methods are applied to an Active Power Filter shunt (APFs) based on a three-phase voltage converter at five levels NPC topology. In calculating the harmonic currents of reference, we use the algorithm P-Q and pulse generation, we use the intersective PWM. For flexibility and dynamics, we use fuzzy logic. The results give us clear that the rate of Harmonic Distortion issued by fuzzy logic is better than P-Q.

Keywords: fuzzy logic controller, P-Q method, pulse width modulation (PWM), shunt active power filter (sAPF), total harmonic distortion (THD)

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Authors: Kwangin Kim, Taewon Yoo, Haksoo Han

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Polyimide is a superior polymer in the electronics industry, and we conducted a study to synthesize poly(amide-imide) at low temperatures. Poly(amide-imide) was synthesized at low-temperature curing to offer a thermal stable membrane with low residual stress and good processability. As a result, the low crack polymer with good processability could be used to various applications such as semiconductors, integrated circuits, coating materials, membranes, and display. The synthesis of poly(amide-imide) at low temperatures was confirmed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR). Thermal stabilities of the polymer was confirmed by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC).

Keywords: poly(amide-imide), residual stress, thermal stability

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Authors: Biswarup Mukherjee, Aniruddha Ghosal

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In this paper, we propose a new technique for implementing a low power full adder using a set of GDI multiplexers. Full adder circuits are used comprehensively in Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). Thus it is desirable to have low power operation for the sub components. The explored method of implementation achieves a low power design for the full adder. Simulated results using state-of-art Tanner tool indicates the superior performance of the proposed technique over conventional CMOS full adder. Detailed comparison of simulated results for the conventional and present method of implementation is presented.

Keywords: low power full adder, 2-T GDI MUX, ASIC (application specific integrated circuit), 12-T FA, CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor)

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Authors: Vishal V. Choudhari, Gaurao A. Dongre, S. P. Diwan

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A number of reference current generation have been developed for analysis of shunt active power filter to mitigate the load compensation. Depending upon the type of load the technique has to be chosen. In this paper, six reference current generation techniques viz. instantaneous reactive power theory(IRP), Synchronous reference frame theory(SRF), Perfect harmonic cancellation(PHC), Unity power factor method(UPF), Self-tuning filter method(STF), Predictive filtering method(PFM) are compared for different operating conditions. The harmonics are introduced because of non-linear loads in the system. These harmonics are eliminated using above techniques. The results and performance of system simulated on MATLAB/Simulink platform. The system is experimentally implemented using DS1104 card of dSPACE system.

Keywords: SAPF, power quality, THD, IRP, SRF, dSPACE module DS1104

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Authors: Ephrem Getahun, Shengwen Qi, Songfeng Guo, Yu Zou, Melesse Alemayehu

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Residual shear characteristics of slide soil profile sections (SSPS) were examined using ring shear tests to know the relative residual shear behaviors among the sections of slide soil. The multistage-multiphase shearing techniques were employed to perform the experiment for each soil specimen continuously towards large displacements. The grain distribution analysis of SSPS samples was characterized by coarsening upward from bottom slip to the top sections; however, the slip surface was considered as a sheared zone that endorses their low shear resistance for failure. There is an average range of 1-2.5 mm axial displacement on each stage of loadings and phases of shearing that depicts the significant effect of dilation and compression of soil specimen. The middle section has the largest consolidation percentage (10-29%), and vertical displacement compared to other sections and showed high shear strengthening behavior having maximum shear stress of 189kPa at 240kPa loading compared to basal and top sections. It is found that the middle section of SSPS has relatively high shear resistance behavior for large displacement shearing. The residual shear assessment indicates that there is a significant influence of large displacement and rate on the friction coefficient behaviors; it resulted in shear weakening effect to attain their residual condition.

Keywords: comparison, displacements, residual shear stress, shear behavior, slide soils

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Authors: Tak-Chung Fu, Ying-Kit Hung, Fu-Lai Chung

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In the field of time series data mining, the concept of the Perceptually Important Point (PIP) identification process is first introduced in 2001. This process originally works for financial time series pattern matching and it is then found suitable for time series dimensionality reduction and representation. Its strength is on preserving the overall shape of the time series by identifying the salient points in it. With the rise of Big Data, time series data contributes a major proportion, especially on the data which generates by sensors in the Internet of Things (IoT) environment. According to the nature of PIP identification and the successful cases, it is worth to further explore the opportunity to apply PIP in time series ‘Big Data’. However, the performance of PIP identification is always considered as the limitation when dealing with ‘Big’ time series data. In this paper, two distributed versions of PIP identification based on the Specialized Binary (SB) Tree are proposed. The proposed approaches solve the bottleneck when running the PIP identification process in a standalone computer. Improvement in term of speed is obtained by the distributed versions.

Keywords: distributed computing, performance analysis, Perceptually Important Point identification, time series data mining

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Authors: Saim Iftikhar Awan, Farhan Ali

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Wind power has now become one of the most important resources of renewable energy. The machine which extracts kinetic energy from wind is wind turbine. This work is all about the electrical power analysis of horizontal axis wind turbine to check the efficiency of different configurations of wind turbines to get maximum output and comparison of experimental and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results. Different experiments have been performed to obtain that configuration with the help of which we can get the maximum electrical power output by changing the different parameters like the number of blades, blade shape, wind speed, etc. in first step experimentation is done, and then the similar configuration is designed in 3D CAD software. After a series of experiments, it has been found that the turbine with four blades at an angle of 75° gives maximum power output and increase in wind speed increases the power output. The models designed on CAD software are imported on ANSYS-FLUENT to predict mechanical power. This mechanical power is then converted into electrical power, and the results were approximately the same in both cases. In the end, a comparison has been done to compare the results of experiments and ANSYS-FLUENT.

Keywords: computational analysis, power efficiency, wind energy, wind turbine

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Authors: Hamidreza Mansouri

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In the construction industry, the lifespan of a metal structure is directly related to the quality of welding. In most metal structures, the welded area is considered critical and is one of the most important factors in design. To date, many fracture incidents caused by these types of cracks have occurred. Various methods exist to increase the lifespan of welds to prevent failure in the welded area. Among these methods, the application of ultrasonic peening, in addition to the stress relief process, can manually and more precisely adjust the geometry of the weld toe and prevent stress concentration in this part. This research examined Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) on common structural steels and 316 stainless steel, which require precise welding, to predict the optimal condition. The GTAW method was used to create residual stress; two samples underwent ultrasonic stress relief, and for comparison, two samples underwent thermal stress relief. Also, no treatment was considered for two samples. The residual stress of all six pieces was measured by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) method. Then, the two ultrasonically stress-relieved samples and two untreated samples were exposed to a corrosive environment to initiate cracking and determine the effectiveness of the ultrasonic stress relief method. Thus, the residual stress caused by GTAW in the samples decreased by 3.42% with thermal treatment and by 7.69% with ultrasonic peening. Furthermore, the results show that the untreated sample developed cracks after 740 hours, while the ultrasonically stress-relieved piece showed no cracks. Given the high costs of welding and post-welding zone modification processes, finding an economical, effective, and comprehensive method that has the least limitations alongside a broad spectrum of usage is of great importance. Therefore, the impact of various ultrasonic peening stress relief parameters and the selection of the best stress relief parameter to achieve the longest lifespan for the weld area is highly significant.

Keywords: GTAW welding, stress corrosion cracking(SCC), thermal method, ultrasonic peening.

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Authors: Yang Liu, Mathias Agmell, Aylin Ahadi, Jan-Eric Stahl, Jinming Zhou

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Tool wear and tool geometry have significant effects on the residual stresses in the component produced by high-speed machining. In this paper, Coupled Eulerian and Lagrangian (CEL) model is adopted to investigate the residual stress in high-speed machining of Inconel718 with a CBN170 cutting tool. The result shows that the mesh with the smallest size of 5 um yields cutting forces and chip morphology in close agreement with the experimental data. The analysis of thermal loading and mechanical loading are performed to study the effect of segmented chip morphology on the machined surface topography and residual stress distribution. The effects of cutting edge radius and flank wear on residual stresses formation and distribution on the workpiece were also investigated. It is found that the temperature within 100um depth of the machined surface increases drastically due to the more friction heat generation with the contact area of tool and workpiece increasing when a larger edge radius and flank wear are used. With the depth further increasing, the temperature drops rapidly for all cases due to the low conductivity of Inconel718. Consequently, higher and deeper tensile residual stress is generated on the superficial. Furthermore, an increased depth of plastic deformation and compressive residual stress is noticed in the subsurface, which is attributed to the reduction of the yield strength under the thermal effect. Besides, the ploughing effect produced by a larger tool edge radius contributes more than flank wear. The magnitude variation of the compressive residual stress caused by various edge radius and flank wear have a totally opposite trend, which depends on the magnitude of the ploughing and friction pressure acting on the machined surface.

Keywords: Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian, segmented chip, residual stress, tool wear, edge radius, Inconel718

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Authors: Majid Vafaeipour, Mohamed El Baghdadi, Florian Verbelen, Peter Sergeant, Joeri Van Mierlo, Kurt Stockman, Omar Hegazy

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The Electrical Variable Transmission (EVT), an electromechanical device, can be considered as an alternative solution to the conventional transmission system utilized in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). This study present comparisons in terms of fuel consumption, power split, and state of charge (SoC) of an HEV containing an EVT to a conventional parallel topology and a series topology. To this end, corresponding simulations of these topologies are all performed in presence of control strategies enabling battery charge-sustaining and efficient power split. The power flow through the components of the vehicle are attained, and fuel consumption results of the considered cases are compared. The investigation of the results indicates utilizing EVT can provide significant added values in HEV configurations. The outcome of the current research paves its path for implementation of design optimization approaches on such systems in further research directions.

Keywords: Electrical Variable Transmission (EVT), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), parallel, series, modeling

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Authors: Mesut BALIBEY, Serpil TÜRKYILMAZ

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A popular topic in the econometrics and time series area is the cointegrating relationships among the components of a nonstationary time series. Engle and Granger’s least squares method and Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method are the most widely-used methods to determine the relationships among variables. Furthermore, a method proposed to test a unit root based on the periodogram ordinates has certain advantages over conventional tests. Periodograms can be calculated without any model specification and the exact distribution under the assumption of a unit root is obtained. For higher order processes the distribution remains the same asymptotically. In this study, in order to indicate advantages over conventional test of periodograms, we are going to examine a possible relationship between tourism and economic growth during the period 1999:01-2010:12 for Turkey by using periodogram method, Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method, Engle and Granger’s ordinary least square method.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, periodogram ordinate, tourism

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Authors: Khaled Ben Oualid Medani, Samir Sayah

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The Optimal Reactive Power Dispatch (ORPD) problem has been solved and analysed usually in the normal conditions. However, network collapses appear in contingency conditions. In this paper, ORPD under several contingencies is presented using the proposed method WOA. To ensure viability of the power system in contingency conditions, several critical cases are simulated in order to prevent and prepare the power system to face such situations. The results obtained are carried out in IEEE 30 bus test system for the solution of ORPD problem in which control of bus voltages, tap position of transformers and reactive power sources are involved. Moreover, another method, namely, Particle Swarm Optimization with Time Varying Acceleration Coefficient (PSO-TVAC) has been compared with the proposed technique. Simulation results indicate that the proposed WOA gives remarkable solution in terms of effectiveness in case of outages.

Keywords: optimal reactive power dispatch, power system analysis, real power loss minimization, contingency condition, metaheuristic technique, whale optimization algorithm

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Authors: Tianhao Zhang, Cen Chen, Dawei Cheng, Yuqi Liang, Yuanyuan Liang

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Dealing with anomalies is a crucial preprocessing step for multivariate time series prediction. However, existing methods that separate anomaly preprocessing and model training into two stages have certain limitations. Specifically, these methods fail to leverage auxiliary information necessary to distinguish latent anomalies related to spatiotemporal factors during the preprocessing stage. Instead, they solely rely on data distribution for detection which may lead to incorrect processing of many samples that are beneficial for training. To address this, we propose STTS-EAD, an end-to-end method that seamlessly integrates anomaly detection into the training process of multivariate time series forecasting and aims to improve Spatio-Temporal learning based Time Series prediction via Embedded Anomaly Detection. Our proposed STTS-EAD leverages spatio-temporal information for forecasting and anomaly detection, with the two parts alternately executed and optimized for each other. To the best of our knowledge, STTS-EAD is the first to integrate anomaly detection and forecasting tasks in the training phase for improving the accuracy of multivariate time series forecasting. Extensive experiments on a public stock dataset and two real-world sales datasets from a renowned coffee chain enterprise show that our proposed method can effectively process detected anomalies in the training stage to improve forecasting performance in the inference stage and significantly outperform baselines.

Keywords: multivariate time series, anomaly detection, time series forecasting, spatiotemporal feature learning

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Authors: Ana Paula S. A. Correa, Allan K. R. Galardo, Luana A. Lima, Talita F. Sobral, Josiane N. Muller, Jessica F. S. Barroso, Nercy V. R. Furtado, Ednaldo C. Rêgo., Jose B. P. Lima

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Malaria is a public health problem in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Among the integrated approaches for anopheline control, the Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) remains one of the main tools in the basic strategy applied in the Amazonian States, where the National Malaria Control Program currently uses one of the insecticides from the pyrethroid class, the Etofenprox WP. Understanding the residual efficacy of insecticides on different surfaces is essential to determine the spray cycles, in order to maintain a rational use and to avoid product waste. The aim of this study was to evaluate the residual efficacy of Etofenprox - VECTRON ® 20 WP on surfaces of Unplastered Cement (UC) and Unpainted Wood (UW) on panels, in field, and in semi-field evaluation of Brazil’s Amapa State. The evaluation criteria used was the cone bioassay test, following the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended method, using plastic cones and female mosquitos of Anopheles sp. The tests were carried out in laboratory panels, semi-field evaluation in a “test house” built in the Macapa municipality, and in the field in 20 houses, being ten houses per surface type (UC and UW), in an endemic malaria area in Mazagão’s municipality. The residual efficacy was measured from March to September 2017, starting one day after the spraying, repeated monthly for a period of six months. The UW surface presented higher residual efficacy than the UC. In fact, the UW presented a residual efficacy of the insecticide throughout the period of this study with a mortality rate above 80% in the panels (= 95%), in the "test house" (= 86%) and in field houses ( = 87%). On the UC surface it was observed a mortality decreased in all the tests performed, with a mortality rate of 45, 47 and 29% on panels, semi-field and in field, respectively; however, the residual efficacy ≥ 80% only occurred in the first evaluation after the 24-hour spraying bioassay in the "test house". Thus, only the UW surface meets the specifications of the World Health Organization Pesticide Evaluation Scheme (WHOPES) regarding the duration of effective action (three to six months). To sum up, the insecticide residual efficacy presented variability on the different surfaces where it was sprayed. Although the IRS with Etofenprox WP was efficient on UW surfaces, and it can be used in spraying cycles at 4-month intervals, it is important to consider the diversity of houses in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, in order to implement alternatives for vector control, including the evaluation of new products or different formulations types for insecticides.

Keywords: Anopheles, vector control, insecticide, bioassay

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: Kang-Gyu Park, Sun-Jong Park, Hong Jae Yim, Hyo-Gyung Kwak

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This paper attempts to evaluate the effect of fire damage on concrete by using nonlinear resonance vibration method, one of the nonlinear nondestructive method. Concrete exhibits not only nonlinear stress-strain relation but also hysteresis and discrete memory effect which are contained in consolidated materials. Hysteretic materials typically show the linear resonance frequency shift. Also, the shift of resonance frequency is changed according to the degree of micro damage. The degree of the shift can be obtained through nonlinear resonance vibration method. Five exposure scenarios were considered in order to make different internal micro damage. Also, the effect of post-fire-curing on fire-damaged concrete was taken into account to conform the change in internal damage. Hysteretic non linearity parameter was obtained by amplitude-dependent resonance frequency shift after specific curing periods. In addition, splitting tensile strength was measured on each sample to characterize the variation of residual strength. Then, a correlation between the hysteretic non linearity parameter and residual strength was proposed from each test result.

Keywords: nonlinear resonance vibration method, non linearity parameter, splitting tensile strength, micro damage, post-fire-curing, fire damaged concrete

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Authors: Tushnik Sarkar, Mofazzal H. Khondekar, Subrata Banerjee

Abstract:

This paper investigates the nature of the fluctuation of the daily average Solar wind speed time series collected over a period of 2492 days, from 1^st January, 1997 to 28^th October, 2003. The degree of self-similarity and scalability of the Solar Wind Speed signal has been explored to characterise the signal fluctuation. Multi-fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) method has been implemented on the signal which is under investigation to perform this task. Furthermore, the singularity spectra of the signals have been also obtained to gauge the extent of the multifractality of the time series signal.

Keywords: detrended fluctuation analysis, generalized hurst exponent, holder exponents, multifractal exponent, multifractal spectrum, singularity spectrum, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 368

Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

Abstract:

Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir, seismic attributes

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Sandeep Kaur Chouhan, Jatinderdeep Kaur, S. S. Bhatia

Abstract:

The existence of sine and cosine series as a Fourier series, their L1-convergence seems to be one of the difficult question in theory of convergence of trigonometric series in L1-metric norm. In the literature so far available, various authors have studied the L1-convergence of cosine and sine trigonometric series with special coefficients. In this paper, we present a modified cosine and sine sums and criterion for L1-convergence of these modified sums is obtained. Also, a necessary and sufficient condition for the L1-convergence of the cosine and sine series is deduced as corollaries.

Keywords: conjugate Dirichlet kernel, Dirichlet kernel, L1-convergence, modified sums

Procedia PDF Downloads 322