Search results for: random numbers
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3142

Search results for: random numbers

112 Stability Assessment of Underground Power House Encountering Shear Zone: Sunni Dam Hydroelectric Project (382 MW), India

Authors: Sanjeev Gupta, Ankit Prabhakar, K. Rajkumar Singh

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Sunni Dam Hydroelectric Project (382 MW) is a run of river type development with an underground powerhouse, proposed to harness the hydel potential of river Satluj in Himachal Pradesh, India. The project is located in the inner lesser Himalaya between Dhauladhar Range in the south and the higher Himalaya in the north. The project comprises two large underground caverns, a Powerhouse cavern (171m long, 22.5m wide and 51.2m high) and another transformer hall cavern (175m long, 18.7m wide and 27m high) and the rock pillar between the two caverns is 50m. The highly jointed, fractured, anisotropic rock mass is a key challenge in Himalayan geology for an underground structure. The concern for the stability of rock mass increases when weak/shear zones are encountered in the underground structure. In the Sunni Dam project, 1.7m to 2m thick weak/shear zone comprising of deformed, weak material with gauge has been encountered in powerhouse cavern at 70m having dip direction 325 degree and dip amount 38 degree which also intersects transformer hall at initial reach. The rock encountered in the powerhouse area is moderate to highly jointed, pink quartz arenite belonging to the Khaira Formation, a transition zone comprising of alternate grey, pink & white quartz arenite and shale sequence and dolomite at higher reaches. The rock mass is intersected by mainly 3 joint sets excluding bedding joints and a few random joints. The rock class in powerhouse mainly varies from poor class (class IV) to lower order fair class (class III) and in some reaches, very poor rock mass has also been encountered. To study the stability of the underground structure in weak/shear rock mass, a 3D numerical model analysis has been carried out using RS3 software. Field studies have been interpreted and analysed to derive Bieniawski’s RMR, Barton’s “Q” class and Geological Strength Index (GSI). The various material parameters, in-situ characteristics have been determined based on tests conducted by Central Soil and Materials Research Station, New Delhi. The behaviour of the cavern has been studied by assessing the displacement contours, major and minor principal stresses and plastic zones for different stage excavation sequences. For optimisation of the support system, the stability of the powerhouse cavern with different powerhouse orientations has also been studied. The numerical modeling results indicate that cavern will not likely face stress governed by structural instability with the support system to be applied to the crown and side walls.

Keywords: 3D analysis, Himalayan geology, shear zone, underground power house

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111 Using the Theory of Reasoned Action and Parental Mediation Theory to Examine Cyberbullying Perpetration among Children and Adolescents

Authors: Shirley S. Ho

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The advancement and development of social media have inadvertently brought about a new form of bullying – cyberbullying – that transcends across physical boundaries of space. Although extensive research has been conducted in the field of cyberbullying, most of these studies have taken an overwhelmingly empirical angle. Theories guiding cyberbullying research are few. Furthermore, very few studies have explored the association between parental mediation and cyberbullying, with majority of existing studies focusing on cyberbullying victimization rather than perpetration. Therefore, this present study investigates cyberbullying perpetration from a theoretical angle, with a focus on the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Parental Mediation Theory. More specifically, this study examines the direct effects of attitude, subjective norms, descriptive norms, injunctive norms and active mediation and restrictive mediation on cyberbullying perpetration on social media among children and adolescents in Singapore. Furthermore, the moderating role of age on the relationship between parental mediation and cyberbullying perpetration on social media are examined. A self-administered paper-and-pencil nationally-representative survey was conducted. Multi-stage cluster random sampling was used to ensure that schools from all the four (North, South, East, and West) regions of Singapore were equally represented in the sample used for the survey. In all 607 upper primary school children (i.e., Primary 4 to 6 students) and 782 secondary school adolescents participated in our survey. The total average response rates were 69.6% for student participation. An ordinary least squares hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to test the hypotheses and research questions. The results revealed that attitude and subjective norms were positively associated with cyberbullying perpetration on social media. Descriptive norms and injunctive norms were not found to be significantly associated with cyberbullying perpetration. The results also showed that both parental mediation strategies were negatively associated with cyberbullying perpetration on social media. Age was a significant moderator of both parental mediation strategies and cyberbullying perpetration. The negative relationship between active mediation and cyberbullying perpetration was found to be greater in the case of children than adolescents. Children who received high restrictive parental mediation were less likely to perform cyberbullying behaviors, while adolescents who received high restrictive parental mediation were more likely to be engaged in cyberbullying perpetration. The study reveals that parents should apply active mediation and restrictive mediation in different ways for children and adolescents when trying to prevent cyberbullying perpetration. The effectiveness of active parental mediation for reducing cyberbullying perpetration was more in the case of children than for adolescents. Younger children were found to be more likely to respond more positively toward restrictive parental mediation strategies, but in the case of adolescents, overly restrictive control was found to increase cyberbullying perpetration. Adolescents exhibited less cyberbullying behaviors when under low restrictive strategies. Findings highlight that the Theory of Reasoned Action and Parental Mediation Theory are promising frameworks to apply in the examination of cyberbullying perpetration. The findings that different parental mediation strategies had differing effectiveness, based on the children’s age, bring about several practical implications that may benefit educators and parents when addressing their children’s online risk.

Keywords: cyberbullying perpetration, theory of reasoned action, parental mediation, social media, Singapore

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110 The Influence of Microsilica on the Cluster Cracks' Geometry of Cement Paste

Authors: Maciej Szeląg

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The changing nature of environmental impacts, in which cement composites are operating, are causing in the structure of the material a number of phenomena, which result in volume deformation of the composite. These strains can cause composite cracking. Cracks are merging by propagation or intersect to form a characteristic structure of cracks known as the cluster cracks. This characteristic mesh of cracks is crucial to almost all building materials, which are working in service loads conditions. Particularly dangerous for a cement matrix is a sudden load of elevated temperature – the thermal shock. Resulting in a relatively short period of time a large value of a temperature gradient between the outer surface and the material’s interior can result in cracks formation on the surface and in the volume of the material. In the paper, in order to analyze the geometry of the cluster cracks of the cement pastes, the image analysis tools were used. Tested were 4 series of specimens made of two different Portland cement. In addition, two series include microsilica as a substitute for the 10% of the cement. Within each series, specimens were performed in three w/b indicators (water/binder): 0.4; 0.5; 0.6. The cluster cracks were created by sudden loading the samples by elevated temperature of 250°C. Images of the cracked surfaces were obtained via scanning at 2400 DPI. Digital processing and measurements were performed using ImageJ v. 1.46r software. To describe the structure of the cluster cracks three stereological parameters were proposed: the average cluster area - A ̅, the average length of cluster perimeter - L ̅, and the average opening width of a crack between clusters - I ̅. The aim of the study was to identify and evaluate the relationships between measured stereological parameters, and the compressive strength and the bulk density of the modified cement pastes. The tests of the mechanical and physical feature have been carried out in accordance with EN standards. The curves describing the relationships have been developed using the least squares method, and the quality of the curve fitting to the empirical data was evaluated using three diagnostic statistics: the coefficient of determination – R2, the standard error of estimation - Se, and the coefficient of random variation – W. The use of image analysis allowed for a quantitative description of the cluster cracks’ geometry. Based on the obtained results, it was found a strong correlation between the A ̅ and L ̅ – reflecting the fractal nature of the cluster cracks formation process. It was noted that the compressive strength and the bulk density of cement pastes decrease with an increase in the values of the stereological parameters. It was also found that the main factors, which impact on the cluster cracks’ geometry are the cement particles’ size and the general content of the binder in a volume of the material. The microsilica caused the reduction in the A ̅, L ̅ and I ̅ values compared to the values obtained by the classical cement paste’s samples, which is caused by the pozzolanic properties of the microsilica.

Keywords: cement paste, cluster cracks, elevated temperature, image analysis, microsilica, stereological parameters

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109 Impact of 6-Week Brain Endurance Training on Cognitive and Cycling Performance in Highly Trained Individuals

Authors: W. Staiano, S. Marcora

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Introduction: It has been proposed that acute negative effect of mental fatigue (MF) could potentially become a training stimulus for the brain (Brain endurance training (BET)) to adapt and improve its ability to attenuate MF states during sport competitions. Purpose: The aim of this study was to test the efficacy of 6 weeks of BET on cognitive and cycling tests in a group of well-trained subjects. We hypothesised that combination of BET and standard physical training (SPT) would increase cognitive capacity and cycling performance by reducing rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and increase resilience to fatigue more than SPT alone. Methods: In a randomized controlled trial design, 26 well trained participants, after a familiarization session, cycled to exhaustion (TTE) at 80% peak power output (PPO) and, after 90 min rest, at 65% PPO, before and after random allocation to a 6 week BET or active placebo control. Cognitive performance was measured using 30 min of STROOP coloured task performed before cycling performance. During the training, BET group performed a series of cognitive tasks for a total of 30 sessions (5 sessions per week) with duration increasing from 30 to 60 min per session. Placebo engaged in a breathing relaxation training. Both groups were monitored for physical training and were naïve to the purpose of the study. Physiological and perceptual parameters of heart rate, lactate (LA) and RPE were recorded during cycling performances, while subjective workload (NASA TLX scale) was measured during the training. Results: Group (BET vs. Placebo) x Test (Pre-test vs. Post-test) mixed model ANOVA’s revealed significant interaction for performance at 80% PPO (p = .038) or 65% PPO (p = .011). In both tests, groups improved their TTE performance; however, BET group improved significantly more compared to placebo. No significant differences were found for heart rate during the TTE cycling tests. LA did not change significantly at rest in both groups. However, at completion of 65% TTE, it was significantly higher (p = 0.043) in the placebo condition compared to BET. RPE measured at ISO-time in BET was significantly lower (80% PPO, p = 0.041; 65% PPO p= 0.021) compared to placebo. Cognitive results in the STROOP task showed that reaction time in both groups decreased at post-test. However, BET decreased significantly (p = 0.01) more compared to placebo despite no differences accuracy. During training sessions, participants in the BET showed, through NASA TLX questionnaires, constantly significantly higher (p < 0.01) mental demand rates compared to placebo. No significant differences were found for physical demand. Conclusion: The results of this study provide evidences that combining BET and SPT seems to be more effective than SPT alone in increasing cognitive and cycling performance in well trained endurance participants. The cognitive overload produced during the 6-week training of BET can induce a reduction in perception of effort at a specific power, and thus improving cycling performance. Moreover, it provides evidence that including neurocognitive interventions will benefit athletes by increasing their mental resilience, without affecting their physical training load and routine.

Keywords: cognitive training, perception of effort, endurance performance, neuro-performance

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108 Design of a Small and Medium Enterprise Growth Prediction Model Based on Web Mining

Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
107 Argos-Linked Fastloc GPS Reveals the Resting Activity of Migrating Sea Turtles

Authors: Gail Schofield, Antoine M. Dujon, Nicole Esteban, Rebecca M. Lester, Graeme C. Hays

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Variation in diel movement patterns during migration provides information on the strategies used by animals to maximize energy efficiency and ensure the successful completion of migration. For instance, many flying and land-based terrestrial species stop to rest and refuel at regular intervals along the migratory route, or at transitory ‘stopover’ sites, depending on resource availability. However, in cases where stopping is not possible (such as over–or through deep–open oceans, or over deserts and mountains), non-stop travel is required, with animals needing to develop strategies to rest while actively traveling. Recent advances in biologging technologies have identified mid-flight micro sleeps by swifts in Africa during the 10-month non-breeding period, and the use of lateralized sleep behavior in orca and bottlenose dolphins during migration. Here, highly accurate locations obtained by Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS transmitters of adult green (n=8 turtles, 9487 locations) and loggerhead (n=46 turtles, 47,588 locations) sea turtles migrating around thousand kilometers (over several weeks) from breeding to foraging grounds across the Indian and Mediterranean oceans were used to identify potential resting strategies. Stopovers were only documented for seven turtles, lasting up to 6 days; thus, this strategy was not commonly used, possibly due to the lack of potential ‘shallow’ ( < 100 m seabed depth) sites along routes. However, observations of the day versus night speed of travel indicated that turtles might use other mechanisms to rest. For instance, turtles traveled an average 31% slower at night compared to day during oceanic crossings. Slower travel speeds at night might be explained by turtles swimming in a less direct line at night and/or deeper dives reducing their forward motion, as indicated through studies using Argos-linked transmitters and accelerometers. Furthermore, within the first 24 h of entering waters shallower than 100 m towards the end of migration (the depth at which sea turtles can swim and rest on the seabed), some individuals travelled 72% slower at night, repeating this behavior intermittently (each time for a one-night duration at 3–6-day intervals) until reaching the foraging grounds. If the turtles were, in fact, resting on the seabed at this point, they could be inactive for up to 8-hours, facilitating protracted periods of rest after several weeks of constant swimming. Turtles might not rest every night once within these shallower depths, due to the time constraints of reaching foraging grounds and restoring depleted energetic reserves (as sea turtles are capital breeders, they tend not to feed for several months during migration to and from the breeding grounds and while breeding). In conclusion, access to data-rich, highly accurate Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS provided information about differences in the day versus night activity at different stages of migration, allowing us, for the first time, to compare the strategies used by a marine vertebrate with terrestrial land-based and flying species. However, the question of what resting strategies are used by individuals that remain in oceanic waters to forage, with combinations of highly accurate Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS transmitters and accelerometry or time-depth recorders being required for sufficient numbers of individuals.

Keywords: argos-linked fastloc GPS, data loggers, migration, resting strategy, telemetry

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106 Linguistic Analysis of Borderline Personality Disorder: Using Language to Predict Maladaptive Thoughts and Behaviours

Authors: Charlotte Entwistle, Ryan Boyd

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Recent developments in information retrieval techniques and natural language processing have allowed for greater exploration of psychological and social processes. Linguistic analysis methods for understanding behaviour have provided useful insights within the field of mental health. One area within mental health that has received little attention though, is borderline personality disorder (BPD). BPD is a common mental health disorder characterised by instability of interpersonal relationships, self-image and affect. It also manifests through maladaptive behaviours, such as impulsivity and self-harm. Examination of language patterns associated with BPD could allow for a greater understanding of the disorder and its links to maladaptive thoughts and behaviours. Language analysis methods could also be used in a predictive way, such as by identifying indicators of BPD or predicting maladaptive thoughts, emotions and behaviours. Additionally, associations that are uncovered between language and maladaptive thoughts and behaviours could then be applied at a more general level. This study explores linguistic characteristics of BPD, and their links to maladaptive thoughts and behaviours, through the analysis of social media data. Data were collected from a large corpus of posts from the publicly available social media platform Reddit, namely, from the ‘r/BPD’ subreddit whereby people identify as having BPD. Data were collected using the Python Reddit API Wrapper and included all users which had posted within the BPD subreddit. All posts were manually inspected to ensure that they were not posted by someone who clearly did not have BPD, such as people posting about a loved one with BPD. These users were then tracked across all other subreddits of which they had posted in and data from these subreddits were also collected. Additionally, data were collected from a random control group of Reddit users. Disorder-relevant behaviours, such as self-harming or aggression-related behaviours, outlined within Reddit posts were coded to by expert raters. All posts and comments were aggregated by user and split by subreddit. Language data were then analysed using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) 2015 software. LIWC is a text analysis program that identifies and categorises words based on linguistic and paralinguistic dimensions, psychological constructs and personal concern categories. Statistical analyses of linguistic features could then be conducted. Findings revealed distinct linguistic features associated with BPD, based on Reddit posts, which differentiated these users from a control group. Language patterns were also found to be associated with the occurrence of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours. Thus, this study demonstrates that there are indeed linguistic markers of BPD present on social media. It also implies that language could be predictive of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours associated with BPD. These findings are of importance as they suggest potential for clinical interventions to be provided based on the language of people with BPD to try to reduce the likelihood of maladaptive thoughts and behaviours occurring. For example, by social media tracking or engaging people with BPD in expressive writing therapy. Overall, this study has provided a greater understanding of the disorder and how it manifests through language and behaviour.

Keywords: behaviour analysis, borderline personality disorder, natural language processing, social media data

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105 Aeroelastic Stability Analysis in Turbomachinery Using Reduced Order Aeroelastic Model Tool

Authors: Chandra Shekhar Prasad, Ludek Pesek Prasad

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In the present day fan blade of aero engine, turboprop propellers, gas turbine or steam turbine low-pressure blades are getting bigger, lighter and thus, become more flexible. Therefore, flutter, forced blade response and vibration related failure of the high aspect ratio blade are of main concern for the designers, thus need to be address properly in order to achieve successful component design. At the preliminary design stage large number of design iteration is need to achieve the utter free safe design. Most of the numerical method used for aeroelastic analysis is based on field-based methods such as finite difference method, finite element method, finite volume method or coupled. These numerical schemes are used to solve the coupled fluid Flow-Structural equation based on full Naiver-Stokes (NS) along with structural mechanics’ equations. These type of schemes provides very accurate results if modeled properly, however, they are computationally very expensive and need large computing recourse along with good personal expertise. Therefore, it is not the first choice for aeroelastic analysis during preliminary design phase. A reduced order aeroelastic model (ROAM) with acceptable accuracy and fast execution is more demanded at this stage. Similar ROAM are being used by other researchers for aeroelastic and force response analysis of turbomachinery. In the present paper new medium fidelity ROAM is successfully developed and implemented in numerical tool to simulated the aeroelastic stability phenomena in turbomachinery and well as flexible wings. In the present, a hybrid flow solver based on 3D viscous-inviscid coupled 3D panel method (PM) and 3d discrete vortex particle method (DVM) is developed, viscous parameters are estimated using boundary layer(BL) approach. This method can simulate flow separation and is a good compromise between accuracy and speed compared to CFD. In the second phase of the research work, the flow solver (PM) will be coupled with ROM non-linear beam element method (BEM) based FEM structural solver (with multibody capabilities) to perform the complete aeroelastic simulation of a steam turbine bladed disk, propellers, fan blades, aircraft wing etc. The partitioned based coupling approach is used for fluid-structure interaction (FSI). The numerical results are compared with experimental data for different test cases and for the blade cascade test case, experimental data is obtained from in-house lab experiments at IT CAS. Furthermore, the results from the new aeroelastic model will be compared with classical CFD-CSD based aeroelastic models. The proposed methodology for the aeroelastic stability analysis of gas turbine or steam turbine blades, or propellers or fan blades will provide researchers and engineers a fast, cost-effective and efficient tool for aeroelastic (classical flutter) analysis for different design at preliminary design stage where large numbers of design iteration are required in short time frame.

Keywords: aeroelasticity, beam element method (BEM), discrete vortex particle method (DVM), classical flutter, fluid-structure interaction (FSI), panel method, reduce order aeroelastic model (ROAM), turbomachinery, viscous-inviscid coupling

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104 Monitoring of Rice Phenology and Agricultural Practices from Sentinel 2 Images

Authors: D. Courault, L. Hossard, V. Demarez, E. Ndikumana, D. Ho Tong Minh, N. Baghdadi, F. Ruget

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In the global change context, efficient management of the available resources has become one of the most important topics, particularly for sustainable crop development. Timely assessment with high precision is crucial for water resource and pest management. Rice cultivated in Southern France in the Camargue region must face a challenge, reduction of the soil salinity by flooding and at the same time reduce the number of herbicides impacting negatively the environment. This context has lead farmers to diversify crop rotation and their agricultural practices. The objective of this study was to evaluate this crop diversity both in crop systems and in agricultural practices applied to rice paddy in order to quantify the impact on the environment and on the crop production. The proposed method is based on the combined use of crop models and multispectral data acquired from the recent Sentinel 2 satellite sensors launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) within the homework of the Copernicus program. More than 40 images at fine spatial resolution (10m in the optical range) were processed for 2016 and 2017 (with a revisit time of 5 days) to map crop types using random forest method and to estimate biophysical variables (LAI) retrieved by inversion of the PROSAIL canopy radiative transfer model. Thanks to the high revisit time of Sentinel 2 data, it was possible to monitor the soil labor before flooding and the second sowing made by some farmers to better control weeds. The temporal trajectories of remote sensing data were analyzed for various rice cultivars for defining the main parameters describing the phenological stages useful to calibrate two crop models (STICS and SAFY). Results were compared to surveys conducted with 10 farms. A large variability of LAI has been observed at farm scale (up to 2-3m²/m²) which induced a significant variability in the yields simulated (up to 2 ton/ha). Observations on more than 300 fields have also been collected on land use. Various maps were elaborated, land use, LAI, flooding and sowing, and harvest dates. All these maps allow proposing a new typology to classify these paddy crop systems. Key phenological dates can be estimated from inverse procedures and were validated against ground surveys. The proposed approach allowed to compare the years and to detect anomalies. The methods proposed here can be applied at different crops in various contexts and confirm the potential of remote sensing acquired at fine resolution such as the Sentinel2 system for agriculture applications and environment monitoring. This study was supported by the French national center of spatial studies (CNES, funded by the TOSCA).

Keywords: agricultural practices, remote sensing, rice, yield

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103 Relationship between Thumb Length and Pointing Performance on Portable Terminal with Touch-Sensitive Screen

Authors: Takahiro Nishimura, Kouki Doi, Hiroshi Fujimoto

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Touch-sensitive screens that serve as displays and input devices have been adopted in many portable terminals such as smartphones and personal media players, and the market of touch-sensitive screens has expanded greatly. One of the advantages of touch-sensitive screen is the flexibility in the graphical user interface (GUI) design, and it is imperative to design an appropriate GUI to realize an easy-to-use interface. Moreover, it is important to evaluate the relationship between pointing performance and GUI design. There is much knowledge regarding easy-to-use GUI designs for portable terminals with touch-sensitive screens, and most have focused on GUI design approaches for women or children with small hands. In contrast, GUI design approaches for users with large hands have not received sufficient attention. In this study, to obtain knowledge that contributes to the establishment of individualized easy-to-use GUI design guidelines, we conducted experiments to investigate the relationship between thumb length and pointing performance on portable terminals with touch-sensitive screens. In this study, fourteen college students who participated in the experiment were divided into two groups based on the length of their thumbs. Specifically, we categorized the participants into two groups, thumbs longer than 64.2 mm into L (Long) group, and thumbs longer than 57.4 mm but shorter than 64.2 mm into A (Average) group, based on Japanese anthropometric database. They took part in this study under the authorization of Waseda University’s ‘Ethics Review Committee on Research with Human Subjects’. We created an application for the experimental task and implemented it on the projected capacitive touch-sensitive screen portable terminal (iPod touch (4th generation)). The display size was 3.5 inch and 960 × 640 - pixel resolution at 326 ppi (pixels per inch). This terminal was selected as the experimental device, because of its wide use and market share. The operational procedure of the application is as follows. First, the participants placed their thumb on the start position. Then, one cross-shaped target in a 10 × 7 array of 70 positions appeared at random. The participants pointed the target with their thumb as accurately and as fast as possible. Then, they returned their thumb to the start position and waited. The operation ended when this procedure had been repeated until all 70 targets had each been pointed at once by the participants. We adopted the evaluation indices for absolute error, variable error, and pointing time to investigate pointing performance when using the portable terminal. The results showed that pointing performance varied with thumb length. In particular, on the lower right side of the screen, the performance of L group with long thumb was low. Further, we presented an approach for designing easy-to- use button GUI for users with long thumbs. The contributions of this study include revelation of the relationship between pointing performance and user’s thumb length when using a portable terminal in terms of accuracy, precision, and speed of pointing. We hope that these findings contribute to an easy-to-use GUI design for users with large hands.

Keywords: pointing performance, portable terminal, thumb length, touch-sensitive screen

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102 Kansei Engineering Applied to the Design of Rural Primary Education Classrooms: Design-Based Learning Case

Authors: Jimena Alarcon, Andrea Llorens, Gabriel Hernandez, Maritza Palma, Lucia Navarrete

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The research has funding from the Government of Chile and is focused on defining the design of rural primary classroom that stimulates creativity. The relevance of the study consists of its capacity to define adequate educational spaces for the implementation of the design-based learning (DBL) methodology. This methodology promotes creativity and teamwork, generating a meaningful learning experience for students, based on the appreciation of their environment and the generation of projects that contribute positively to their communities; also, is an inquiry-based form of learning that is based on the integration of design thinking and the design process into the classroom. The main goal of the study is to define the design characteristics of rural primary school classrooms, associated with the implementation of the DBL methodology. Along with the change in learning strategies, it is necessary to change the educational spaces in which they develop. The hypothesis indicates that a change in the space and equipment of the classrooms based on the emotions of the students will motivate better learning results based on the implementation of a new methodology. In this case, the pedagogical dynamics require an important interaction between the participants, as well as an environment favorable to creativity. Methodologies from Kansei engineering are used to know the emotional variables associated with their definition. The study is done to 50 students between 6 and 10 years old (average age of seven years), 48% of men and 52% women. Virtual three-dimensional scale models and semantic differential tables are used. To define the semantic differential, self-applied surveys were carried out. Each survey consists of eight separate questions in two groups: question A to find desirable emotions; question B related to emotions. Both questions have a maximum of three alternatives to answer. Data were tabulated with IBM SPSS Statistics version 19. Terms referred to emotions are grouped into twenty concepts with a higher presence in surveys. To select the values obtained as part of the implementation of Semantic Differential, a number expected of 'chi-square test (x2)' frequency calculated for classroom space is considered lower limit. All terms over the N expected a cut point, are included to prepare tables for surveys to find a relation between emotion and space. Statistic contrast (Chi-Square) represents significance level ≥ 0, indicator that frequencies appeared are not random. Then, the most representative terms depend on the variable under study: a) definition of textures and color of vertical surfaces is associated with emotions such as tranquility, attention, concentration, creativity; and, b) distribution of the equipment of the rooms, with emotions associated with happiness, distraction, creativity, freedom. The main findings are linked to the generation of classrooms according to diverse DBL team dynamics. Kansei engineering is the appropriate methodology to know the emotions that students want to feel in the classroom space.

Keywords: creativity, design-based learning, education spaces, emotions

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101 A Comparative Study of the Impact of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) on Trends in the Second Demographic Transition in Rwanda

Authors: Etienne Gatera

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Many studies have been conducted on SDT. Most of them focus on developed countries because of influencing factors such as; education, health, labor force, female labor force participation, industrialization, urbanization and migration. However, this thesis project paper aims to assess the impact of the total fertility rate (TFR) on the trends of the SDR in Rwanda. We will mainly be based in Rwanda after the 1994 genocide. Rwanda is located in East Africa, with approximately 13 million inhabitants. Thus, after the 1994 Tutsi genocide. The population growth rate exploded out of control with 6.17 children per woman in 1995. However, it's declined to 4.2 in 2014-2015 and declining to 4.1% in 2019-2020. Respectively with 3.4 children per woman in urban areas and 4.3 in rural areas. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. Rwanda's population is expected to continue to grow for the rest of the century and reach 33.35 million people in 2099, with 2.1 children per woman in 2050. However, this project document aims to demonstrate the impact of the TFR on SDT trends in Rwanda. Thus, the decline in the TFR in Rwanda began with the introduction of family planning practices, which now account for 47.5% in 2019. Childbearing with three children for rural women compared to two children in the city, the increase in Divorce and separation caused by the behavior called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "coming at night" similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The decline in remarriage is caused by single mothers behavior who prefer to raise their children rather than remarry. Therefore, the study used probability sampling with (Stratified random sampling) method with a survey questionnaire of 1067 respondents in the 5 Districts (3 in rural areas and two in urban areas), with the target group of women Age between 15-49. The study demonstrated that the age of marriage in rural areas is two years higher than in urban areas. Divorce is more common in urban is with 6.2% with 5.2% in rural areas. However, separation is more common in rural areas than in urban areas, with a lower rate of 3%, due to the higher system called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "come at night", similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The study revealed that more than 85% of divorced people prefer to remain single, which confirms the low remarriage rate. Childbearing has started to decrease, especially for young singles in urban areas, due to the economic situation, with national statistics showing that unemployment in the youth community is still 16% higher. Therefore, the study concluded by confirming the hypothesis based on the results of the TFR indicators such as marriage, remarriage, divorce, separation, divorce, Kuza n'ijoro, childbearing] and abortion. The study consists of four sections, an introduction and background, a review of the literature, a description of the data and methodology, an analysis of the data, discussion results and a conclusion.

Keywords: Kuza n'ijoro, Rwanda, second demographic transition (SDT), total fertility rate (TFR)

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100 Classification of ECG Signal Based on Mixture of Linear and Non-Linear Features

Authors: Mohammad Karimi Moridani, Mohammad Abdi Zadeh, Zahra Shahiazar Mazraeh

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In recent years, the use of intelligent systems in biomedical engineering has increased dramatically, especially in the diagnosis of various diseases. Also, due to the relatively simple recording of the electrocardiogram signal (ECG), this signal is a good tool to show the function of the heart and diseases associated with it. The aim of this paper is to design an intelligent system for automatically detecting a normal electrocardiogram signal from abnormal one. Using this diagnostic system, it is possible to identify a person's heart condition in a very short time and with high accuracy. The data used in this article are from the Physionet database, available in 2016 for use by researchers to provide the best method for detecting normal signals from abnormalities. Data is of both genders and the data recording time varies between several seconds to several minutes. All data is also labeled normal or abnormal. Due to the low positional accuracy and ECG signal time limit and the similarity of the signal in some diseases with the normal signal, the heart rate variability (HRV) signal was used. Measuring and analyzing the heart rate variability with time to evaluate the activity of the heart and differentiating different types of heart failure from one another is of interest to the experts. In the preprocessing stage, after noise cancelation by the adaptive Kalman filter and extracting the R wave by the Pan and Tampkinz algorithm, R-R intervals were extracted and the HRV signal was generated. In the process of processing this paper, a new idea was presented that, in addition to using the statistical characteristics of the signal to create a return map and extraction of nonlinear characteristics of the HRV signal due to the nonlinear nature of the signal. Finally, the artificial neural networks widely used in the field of ECG signal processing as well as distinctive features were used to classify the normal signals from abnormal ones. To evaluate the efficiency of proposed classifiers in this paper, the area under curve ROC was used. The results of the simulation in the MATLAB environment showed that the AUC of the MLP and SVM neural network was 0.893 and 0.947, respectively. As well as, the results of the proposed algorithm in this paper indicated that the more use of nonlinear characteristics in normal signal classification of the patient showed better performance. Today, research is aimed at quantitatively analyzing the linear and non-linear or descriptive and random nature of the heart rate variability signal, because it has been shown that the amount of these properties can be used to indicate the health status of the individual's heart. The study of nonlinear behavior and dynamics of the heart's neural control system in the short and long-term provides new information on how the cardiovascular system functions, and has led to the development of research in this field. Given that the ECG signal contains important information and is one of the common tools used by physicians to diagnose heart disease, but due to the limited accuracy of time and the fact that some information about this signal is hidden from the viewpoint of physicians, the design of the intelligent system proposed in this paper can help physicians with greater speed and accuracy in the diagnosis of normal and patient individuals and can be used as a complementary system in the treatment centers.

Keywords: neart rate variability, signal processing, linear and non-linear features, classification methods, ROC Curve

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99 Land Rights, Policy and Cultural Identity in Uganda: Case of the Basongora Community

Authors: Edith Kamakune

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As much as Indigenous rights are presumed to be part of the broad human rights regime, members of the indigenous communities have continually suffered violations, exclusions, and threat. There are a number of steps taken from the international community in trying to bridge the gap, and this has been through the inclusion of provisions as well as the passing of conventions and declarations with specific reference to the rights of indigenous peoples. Some examples of indigenous people include theSiberian Yupik of St Lawrence Island; the Ute of Utah; the Cree of Alberta, and the Xosa andKhoiKhoi of Southern Africa. Uganda’s wide cultural heritage has played a key role in the failure to pay special attention to the needs of the rights of indigenous peoples. The 1995 Constitution and the Land Act of 1998 provide for abstract land rights without necessarily paying attention to indigenous communities’ special needs. Basongora are a pastoralist community in Western Uganda whose ancestral land is the present Queen Elizabeth National Park of Western Uganda, Virunga National Park of Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and the small percentage of the low lands under the Rwenzori Mountains. Their values and livelihood are embedded in their strong attachment to the land, and this has been at stake for the last about 90 Years. This research was aimed atinvestigating the relationship between land rights and the right to cultural identity among indigenous communities, looking at the policy available on land and culture, and whether the policies are sensitive of the specific issues of vulnerable ethnic groups; and largely the effect of land on the right to cultural identity. The research was guided by three objectives: to examine and contextualize the concept of land rights among the Basongora community; to assess the policy frame work available for the protection of the Basongora community; to investigate the forms of vulnerability of the Basongora community. Quantitative and qualitative methods were used. a case of Kaseseand Kampala Districts were purposefully selected .138 people were recruited through random and nonrandom techniques to participate in the study, and these were 70 questionnaire respondents; 20 face to face interviews respondents; 5 key informants, and 43 participants in focus group discussions; The study established that Land is communally held and used and thatit continues to be a central source of livelihood for the Basongora; land rights are important in multiplication of herds; preservation, development, and promotion of culture and language. Research found gaps in the policy framework since the policies are concerned with tenure issues and the general provisions areambiguous. Oftenly, the Basongora are not called upon to participate in decision making processes, even on issues that affect them. The research findings call forauthorities to allow Basongora to access Queen Elizabeth National Park land for pasture during particular seasons of the year, especially during the dry seasons; land use policy; need for a clear alignment of the description of indigenous communitiesunder the constitution (Uganda, 1995) to the international definition.

Keywords: cultural identity, land rights, protection, uganda

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98 Event-Related Potentials and Behavioral Reactions during Native and Foreign Languages Comprehension in Bilingual Inhabitants of Siberia

Authors: Tatiana N. Astakhova, Alexander E. Saprygin, Tatyana A. Golovko, Alexander N. Savostyanov, Mikhail S. Vlasov, Natalia V. Borisova, Alexandera G. Karpova, Urana N. Kavai-ool, Elena D. Mokur-ool, Nikolay A. Kolchanov, Lubomir I. Aftanas

Abstract:

The study is dedicated to the research of brain activity in bilingual inhabitants of Siberia. We compared behavioral reactions and event-related potentials in Turkic-speaking inhabitants of Siberia (Tuvinians and Yakuts) and Russians. 63 healthy aboriginals of the Tyva Republic, 29 inhabitants of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, and 55 Russians from Novosibirsk participated in the study. All the healthy and right-handed participants, matched on age and sex, were students of different universities. EEG’s were recorded during the solving of linguistic tasks. In these tasks, participants had to find a syntax error in the written sentences. There were four groups of sentences: Russian, English, Tuvinian, and Yakut. All participants completed the tasks in Russian and English. Additionally, Tuvinians and Yakuts completed the tasks in Tuvinian or Yakut respectively. For Russians, EEG's were recorded using 128-channels according to the extended International 10-10 system, and the signals were amplified using “Neuroscan (USA)” amplifiers. For Tuvinians and Yakuts, EEG's were recorded using 64-channels and amplifiers Brain Products, Germany. In all groups, 0.3-100 Hz analog filtering and sampling rate 1000 Hz were used. As parameters of behavioral reactions, response speed and the accuracy of recognition were used. Event-related potentials (ERP) responses P300 and P600 were used as indicators of brain activity. The behavioral reactions showed that in Russians, the response speed for Russian was faster than for English. Also, the accuracy of solving tasks was higher for Russian than for English. The peak P300 in Russians were higher for English, the peak P600 in the left temporal cortex were higher for the Russian language. Both Tuvinians and Yakuts have no difference in accuracy of solving tasks in Russian and in their respective national languages. However, the response speed was faster for tasks in Russian than for tasks in their national language. Tuvinians and Yakuts showed bad accuracy in English, but the response speed was higher for English than for Russian and the national languages. This can be explained by the fact that they did not think carefully and gave a random answer for English. In Tuvinians, The P300 and P600 amplitudes and cortical topology were the same for Russian and Tuvinian and different for English. In Yakuts, the P300 and P600 amplitudes and topology of ERP for Russian were the same as what Russians had for Russian. In Yakuts, brain reactions during Yakut and English comprehension had no difference, and were reflected to foreign language comprehension - while the Russian language comprehension was reflected to native language comprehension. We found out that the Tuvinians recognized both Russian and Tuvinian as native languages, and English as a foreign language. The Yakuts recognized both English and Yakut as a foreign language, and only Russian as a native language. According to the inquirer, both Tuvinians and Yakuts use the national language as a spoken language, whereas they don’t use it for writing. It can well be a reason that Yakuts perceive the Yakut writing language as a foreign language while writing Russian as their native.

Keywords: EEG, ERP, native and foreign languages comprehension, Siberian inhabitants

Procedia PDF Downloads 539
97 Particle Swarm Optimization for Modified Spencer Model Under Different Excitations

Authors: Fatemeh Behbahani, Mehdi Behbahani

Abstract:

The new materials have exposed the technological advancement that has been used to facilitate the presentation of buildings to effectively suppress vibration. Recently researchers have increased their advantages, including decreased power requirements, mechanical simplicity, and a high power capability, because of the regulated Fluids and their applications. The fluids used in magneto-rheological dampers also improved their mechanical characteristics. The damper force caused by the current excitement adjustment was applied within the damper to the electromagnet. A supreme model is needed to be able to accurately estimate damping force according to the superior present hysteresis damper behavior to use the advantage of this remarkable method. Due to the supreme coverage of the nonlinear field of the hysteresis loop among the parametric model, the Spencer model has been commonly used for MR damper to describe hysteresis behavior. Despite this, there are still essential differences in the simulation and experimental outcomes. A novelty model according to the Spencer model is being used here to simulate the damper's nonlinear hysteretic behavior by taking the excitations of frequency, current, and amplitude as displacement and velocity as input variables. This suggested model has a greater benefit than the historically uncertain parameters of the Spencer model, where it can be re-evaluated if a new grouping of excitation parameters is preferred. Experimental experiments in the damping force measuring machine were carried out for validation of the simulations using MATLAB software, as shown in the previous paper which will be mentioned in the content. This paper aims to explain the optimal value of the parameters for the proposed model using a biological-inspired algorithm called Particle Swarm Optimization. The working principles of the classical Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) algorithm for a better understanding of the basic framework of a PSO algorithm will be discussed and also, learn to demonstrate the functionality of a PSO algorithm in MATLAB. A PSO algorithm's design is similar to that of bird flocking and starts with a randomly generated population group. They have fitness values to determine the population. They update the population check for optimal parameters with random strategies and update the simulation resets as well. However, not all algorithms guarantee F. B. with the Department of artificial intelligence and robotics (CAIRO), Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology (MJIIT), UTM, 54100, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (corresponding author, phone: +60-1136463246; e-mail: [email protected]). success. In displacement, velocity, and time curves, a great deal was found between the prediction and experimental works with an appropriate error as a result of the confirmation that the model can correctly measure the hysteresis damping force and the error has decreased relative to the Spencer model.

Keywords: modeling and simulation, semi-active control, MR damper RD-8040-1, particle swarm optimization, magnetorheological fluid, based spencer model

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96 Electroactive Ferrocenyl Dendrimers as Transducers for Fabrication of Label-Free Electrochemical Immunosensor

Authors: Sudeshna Chandra, Christian Gäbler, Christian Schliebe, Heinrich Lang

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Highly branched dendrimers provide structural homogeneity, controlled composition, comparable size to biomolecules, internal porosity and multiple functional groups for conjugating reactions. Electro-active dendrimers containing multiple redox units have generated great interest in their use as electrode modifiers for development of biosensors. The electron transfer between the redox-active dendrimers and the biomolecules play a key role in developing a biosensor. Ferrocenes have multiple and electrochemically equivalent redox units that can act as electron “pool” in a system. The ferrocenyl-terminated polyamidoamine dendrimer is capable of transferring multiple numbers of electrons under the same applied potential. Therefore, they can be used for dual purposes: one in building a film over the electrode for immunosensors and the other for immobilizing biomolecules for sensing. Electrochemical immunosensor, thus developed, exhibit fast and sensitive analysis, inexpensive and involve no prior sample pre-treatment. Electrochemical amperometric immunosensors are even more promising because they can achieve a very low detection limit with high sensitivity. Detection of the cancer biomarkers at an early stage can provide crucial information for foundational research of life science, clinical diagnosis and prevention of disease. Elevated concentration of biomarkers in body fluid is an early indication of some type of cancerous disease and among all the biomarkers, IgG is the most common and extensively used clinical cancer biomarkers. We present an IgG (=immunoglobulin) electrochemical immunosensor using a newly synthesized redox-active ferrocenyl dendrimer of generation 2 (G2Fc) as glassy carbon electrode material for immobilizing the antibody. The electrochemical performance of the modified electrodes was assessed in both aqueous and non-aqueous media using varying scan rates to elucidate the reaction mechanism. The potential shift was found to be higher in an aqueous electrolyte due to presence of more H-bond which reduced the electrostatic attraction within the amido groups of the dendrimers. The cyclic voltammetric studies of the G2Fc-modified GCE in 0.1 M PBS solution of pH 7.2 showed a pair of well-defined redox peaks. The peak current decreased significantly with the immobilization of the anti-goat IgG. After the immunosensor is blocked with BSA, a further decrease in the peak current was observed due to the attachment of the protein BSA to the immunosensor. A significant decrease in the current signal of the BSA/anti-IgG/G2Fc/GCE was observed upon immobilizing IgG which may be due to the formation of immune-conjugates that blocks the tunneling of mass and electron transfer. The current signal was found to be directly related to the amount of IgG captured on the electrode surface. With increase in the concentration of IgG, there is a formation of an increasing amount of immune-conjugates that decreased the peak current. The incubation time and concentration of the antibody was optimized for better analytical performance of the immunosensor. The developed amperometric immunosensor is sensitive to IgG concentration as low as 2 ng/mL. Tailoring of redox-active dendrimers provides enhanced electroactivity to the system and enlarges the sensor surface for binding the antibodies. It may be assumed that both electron transfer and diffusion contribute to the signal transformation between the dendrimers and the antibody.

Keywords: ferrocenyl dendrimers, electrochemical immunosensors, immunoglobulin, amperometry

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95 Design Aspects for Developing a Microfluidics Diagnostics Device Used for Low-Cost Water Quality Monitoring

Authors: Wenyu Guo, Malachy O’Rourke, Mark Bowkett, Michael Gilchrist

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Many devices for real-time monitoring of surface water have been developed in the past few years to provide early warning of pollutions and so to decrease the risk of environmental pollution efficiently. One of the most common methodologies used in the detection system is a colorimetric process, in which a container with fixed volume is filled with target ions and reagents to combine a colorimetric dye. The colorimetric ions can sensitively absorb a specific-wavelength radiation beam, and its absorbance rate is proportional to the concentration of the fully developed product, indicating the concentration of target nutrients in the pre-mixed water samples. In order to achieve precise and rapid detection effect, channels with dimensions in the order of micrometers, i.e., microfluidic systems have been developed and introduced into these diagnostics studies. Microfluidics technology largely reduces the surface to volume ratios and decrease the samples/reagents consumption significantly. However, species transport in such miniaturized channels is limited by the low Reynolds numbers in the regimes. Thus, the flow is extremely laminar state, and diffusion is the dominant mass transport process all over the regimes of the microfluidic channels. The objective of this present work has been to analyse the mixing effect and chemistry kinetics in a stop-flow microfluidic device measuring Nitride concentrations in fresh water samples. In order to improve the temporal resolution of the Nitride microfluidic sensor, we have used computational fluid dynamics to investigate the influence that the effectiveness of the mixing process between the sample and reagent within a microfluidic device exerts on the time to completion of the resulting chemical reaction. This computational approach has been complemented by physical experiments. The kinetics of the Griess reaction involving the conversion of sulphanilic acid to a diazonium salt by reaction with nitrite in acidic solution is set in the Laminar Finite-rate chemical reaction in the model. Initially, a methodology was developed to assess the degree of mixing of the sample and reagent within the device. This enabled different designs of the mixing channel to be compared, such as straight, square wave and serpentine geometries. Thereafter, the time to completion of the Griess reaction within a straight mixing channel device was modeled and the reaction time validated with experimental data. Further simulations have been done to compare the reaction time to effective mixing within straight, square wave and serpentine geometries. Results show that square wave channels can significantly improve the mixing effect and provides a low standard deviations of the concentrations of nitride and reagent, while for straight channel microfluidic patterns the corresponding values are 2-3 orders of magnitude greater, and consequently are less efficiently mixed. This has allowed us to design novel channel patterns of micro-mixers with more effective mixing that can be used to detect and monitor levels of nutrients present in water samples, in particular, Nitride. Future generations of water quality monitoring and diagnostic devices will easily exploit this technology.

Keywords: nitride detection, computational fluid dynamics, chemical kinetics, mixing effect

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94 Development of Peptide Inhibitors against Dengue Virus Infection by in Silico Design

Authors: Aussara Panya, Nunghathai Sawasdee, Mutita Junking, Chatchawan Srisawat, Kiattawee Choowongkomon, Pa-Thai Yenchitsomanus

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Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a global public health problem with approximately 100 million infected cases a year. Presently, there is no approved vaccine or effective drug available; therefore, the development of anti-DENV drug is urgently needed. The clinical reports revealing the positive association between the disease severity and viral titer has been reported previously suggesting that the anti-DENV drug therapy can possibly ameliorate the disease severity. Although several anti-DENV agents showed inhibitory activities against DENV infection, to date none of them accomplishes clinical use in the patients. The surface envelope (E) protein of DENV is critical for the viral entry step, which includes attachment and membrane fusion; thus, the blocking of envelope protein is an attractive strategy for anti-DENV drug development. To search the safe anti-DENV agent, this study aimed to search for novel peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the targeting of E protein using a structure-based in silico design. Two selected strategies has been used including to identify the peptide inhibitor which interfere the membrane fusion process whereby the hydrophobic pocket on the E protein was the target, the destabilization of virion structure organization through the disruption of the interaction between the envelope and membrane proteins, respectively. The molecular docking technique has been used in the first strategy to search for the peptide inhibitors that specifically bind to the hydrophobic pocket. The second strategy, the peptide inhibitor has been designed to mimic the ectodomain portion of membrane protein to disrupt the protein-protein interaction. The designed peptides were tested for the effects on cell viability to measure the toxic to peptide to the cells and their inhibitory assay to inhibit the DENV infection in Vero cells. Furthermore, their antiviral effects on viral replication, intracellular protein level and viral production have been observed by using the qPCR, cell-based flavivirus immunodetection and immunofluorescence assay. None of tested peptides showed the significant effect on cell viability. The small peptide inhibitors achieved from molecular docking, Glu-Phe (EF), effectively inhibited DENV infection in cell culture system. Its most potential effect was observed for DENV2 with a half maximal inhibition concentration (IC50) of 96 μM, but it partially inhibited other serotypes. Treatment of EF at 200 µM on infected cells also significantly reduced the viral genome and protein to 83.47% and 84.15%, respectively, corresponding to the reduction of infected cell numbers. An additional approach was carried out by using peptide mimicking membrane (M) protein, namely MLH40. Treatment of MLH40 caused the reduction of foci formation in four individual DENV serotype (DENV1-4) with IC50 of 24-31 μM. Further characterization suggested that the MLH40 specifically blocked viral attachment to host membrane, and treatment with 100 μM could diminish 80% of viral attachment. In summary, targeting the hydrophobic pocket and M-binding site on the E protein by using the peptide inhibitors could inhibit DENV infection. The results provide proof of-concept for the development of antiviral therapeutic peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the use of a structure-based design targeting conserved viral protein.

Keywords: dengue virus, dengue virus infection, drug design, peptide inhibitor

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93 An Impact Assesment of Festive Events on Sustainable Cultural Heritage: İdrisyayla Village

Authors: Betül Gelengül Eki̇mci̇, Semra Günay Aktaş

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Festive, habitual activities celebrated on the specified date by a local community, are conducive to recognition of the region. The main function of festive events is to help gathering people via an annual celebration to create an atmosphere of understanding and the opportunity to participate in the joy of life. At the same time, festive events may serve as special occasions on which immigrants return home to celebrate with their family and community, reaffirming their identity and link to the community’s traditions. Festivals also support the local economy by bringing in different visitors to the region. The tradition of “Beet Brewing-Molasses Production,” which is held in İdrisyayla Village is an intangible cultural heritage with customs, traditions, and rituals carrying impacts of cuisine culture of Rumelian immigrants in the Ottoman. After the harvest of the beet plant in the autumn season of the year, Beet Brewing Molasses syrup is made by traditional production methods with co-op of the local community. Festive occurring brewing paste made process provided transmission of knowledge and experience to the young generations. Making molasses, which is a laborious process, is accompanied by folk games such as "sayacı," which is vital element of the festive performed in İdrisyayla. Performance provides enjoyable time and supporting motivation. Like other forms of intangible cultural heritage, “Beet Brewing-Molasses Festive in İdrasyayla is threatened by rapid urbanisation, young generation migration, industrialisation and environmental change. The festive events are threatened with gradual disappearance due to changes communities undergo in modern societies because it depends on the broad participation of practitioners. Ensuring the continuity of festive events often requires the mobilization of large numbers of individuals and the social, political and legal institutions and mechanisms of society. In 2015, Intangible cultural heritage research project with the title of "İdrisyayla Molasses Process" managed by the Eskişehir Governorship, City Directorate of Culture and Tourism and Anadolu University, project members took part in the festival organization to promote sustainability, making it visible, to encourage the broadest public participation possible, to ensure public awareness on the cultural importance. To preserve the originality of and encourage participation in the festive İdrisyayla, local associations, researchers and institutions created foundation and supports festive events, such as "sayacı" folk game, which is vital element of the festive performed in İdrisyayla. Practitioners find new opportunity to market İdrisyayla Molasses production. Publicity program through the press and exhibition made it possible to stress the cultural importance of the festive in İdrisyayla Village. The research reported here used a survey analysis to evaluate an affect of the festive after the spirit of the 2015 Festive in İdrisyayla Village. Particular attention was paid to the importance of the cultural aspects of the festival. Based on a survey of more than a hundred festival attendees, several recommendations are made to festival planners. Results indicate that the variety of festive activities and products offered for sale very important to attendees. The local participants care product sales rather than cultural heritage.

Keywords: agritourism, cultural tourism, festival, sustainable cultural heritage

Procedia PDF Downloads 198
92 Combating the Practice of Open Defecation through Appropriate Communication Strategies in Rural India

Authors: Santiagomani Alex Parimalam

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Lack of awareness on the consequences of open defecation and myths and misconceptions related to use of toilets have led to the continued practice of open defecation in India. Government of India initiated a multi-pronged intensive communication campaign against the practice of open defecation in the last few years. The primary vision of this communication campaign was to provide increased demand for toilets and to ensure that all have access to safe sanitation. The campaign strategy included the use of mass media, group and folk media, and interpersonal communication to expedite achieving its objectives. The campaign included the use of various media such as posters, wall writings, slides in cinema theatres, kiosks, pamphlets, newsletters, flip charts and folk media to bring behavioural changes in the communities. The author did a concurrent monitoring and process documentation of the campaigns initiated by the state of Tamilnandu, India between 2013 and 2016 commissioned by UNICEF India. The study was carried out to assess the effectiveness of the communication campaigns in combating the practice of open defecation and promote construction of toilets in the state of Tamilnadu, India. Initial findings revealed the gap in understanding the audience and the use of appropriate media. The first phase of the communication campaign by name as Chi Chi Chollapa (bringing shame concept) also revealed that use of interpersonal communication, group and community media were the most effective strategy in reaching the rural masses. The failure of various other media used especially the print media (poster, handbills, newsletter, kiosks) provides insights as to where the government needs to invest its resources in bringing health-seeking behaviour in the community. The findings shared with the government enabled to strengthen the campaign resulting in improved response. Taking cues from the study, the government understood the potency of the women, school children, youth and community leaders as the effective carriers of the message. The government narrowed down its focus and invested on the voluntary workers (village poverty reduction committee workers VPRCs) in the community. The effectiveness of interpersonal communication and peer education by the credible community worker threw light on the need for localising the content and communicator. From this study, we could derive that only community and group media are preferred by the people in the rural community. Children, youth, women, and credible local leaders are proved to be ambassadors in behaviour change communication. This study discloses the lacunae involved in the communication campaign and points out that the state should have carried out a proper communication need analysis and piloting. The study used a survey method with random sampling. The study used both quantitative and qualitative tools such as interview schedules, in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions in rural areas of Tamilnadu in phases. The findings of the study would provide directions to future campaigns to any campaign concerning health and rural development.

Keywords: appropriate, communication, combating, open defecation

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91 Case-Based Reasoning for Modelling Random Variables in the Reliability Assessment of Existing Structures

Authors: Francesca Marsili

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The reliability assessment of existing structures with probabilistic methods is becoming an increasingly important and frequent engineering task. However probabilistic reliability methods are based on an exhaustive knowledge of the stochastic modeling of the variables involved in the assessment; at the moment standards for the modeling of variables are absent, representing an obstacle to the dissemination of probabilistic methods. The framework according to probability distribution functions (PDFs) are established is represented by the Bayesian statistics, which uses Bayes Theorem: a prior PDF for the considered parameter is established based on information derived from the design stage and qualitative judgments based on the engineer past experience; then, the prior model is updated with the results of investigation carried out on the considered structure, such as material testing, determination of action and structural properties. The application of Bayesian statistics arises two different kind of problems: 1. The results of the updating depend on the engineer previous experience; 2. The updating of the prior PDF can be performed only if the structure has been tested, and quantitative data that can be statistically manipulated have been collected; performing tests is always an expensive and time consuming operation; furthermore, if the considered structure is an ancient building, destructive tests could compromise its cultural value and therefore should be avoided. In order to solve those problems, an interesting research path is represented by investigating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques that can be useful for the automation of the modeling of variables and for the updating of material parameters without performing destructive tests. Among the others, one that raises particular attention in relation to the object of this study is constituted by Case-Based Reasoning (CBR). In this application, cases will be represented by existing buildings where material tests have already been carried out and an updated PDFs for the material mechanical parameters has been computed through a Bayesian analysis. Then each case will be composed by a qualitative description of the material under assessment and the posterior PDFs that describe its material properties. The problem that will be solved is the definition of PDFs for material parameters involved in the reliability assessment of the considered structure. A CBR system represent a good candi¬date in automating the modelling of variables because: 1. Engineers already draw an estimation of the material properties based on the experience collected during the assessment of similar structures, or based on similar cases collected in literature or in data-bases; 2. Material tests carried out on structure can be easily collected from laboratory database or from literature; 3. The system will provide the user of a reliable probabilistic description of the variables involved in the assessment that will also serve as a tool in support of the engineer’s qualitative judgments. Automated modeling of variables can help in spreading probabilistic reliability assessment of existing buildings in the common engineering practice, and target at the best intervention and further tests on the structure; CBR represents a technique which may help to achieve this.

Keywords: reliability assessment of existing buildings, Bayesian analysis, case-based reasoning, historical structures

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90 Differences Between Mother and Father Perpetrators on Child Maltreatment Foster Care Outcomes: An Emphasis on Hispanic and Native American Families

Authors: Yadira Tejeda, Wynette Whitegoat, Dylan Jones, Brett Drake

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Background and Purpose: Hispanic and American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) families impacted by child protective services (CPS) continue to be a population in literature where little is known. There is less known about the fathers of these children and the safety or risk factors attributed to child maltreatment and case outcomes. However, it is known that involving fathers in children’s lives is needed for healthy development, academic achievement, and cognitive development. The few articles that have studied the impacts of engaging fathers in the CPS have found that children in general experience shorter times in foster care, are likely to reunify with their biological family, and overall have better case outcomes. The purpose of this study is to determine whether perpetrators identified as the mother, father, or both impact foster care placement in Hispanic and AI/AN families in CPS. Methods: Using NCANDS Child File data, the selected reports submitted in FY2017 with at least one substantiated allegation, i.e. those with perpetrator information. Reports were categorized into one of three categories: mom-perpetrator-only, father-perpetrator-only, and both. Reports that did not fall into any one of these three categorizations were omitted (<18%). Lastly, only reports where the mother and father self-identified as Hispanic or AI/AN were kept. Foster care placement was measured if any child in the report was placed within three months of the report date. Multilevel Logistic Regression models (random intercepts at the state and county) were used to model the relationship between report-parent type and foster care placement. Controls included Maltreatment types, number of children, any prior reports, and age of the youngest child. Results: For AI/AN reports, 64% were mom-perpetrator-only, 20% were father-perpetrator-only, and 16% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 60% lower odds of placement than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 35% greater odds than mom-only. For Hispanics, 51% were mom-perpetrator-only, 30% father-perpetrator-only, and 19% both. Father-perpetrator-only reports had 74% lower odds than mom-perpetrator-only, and both had 55% greater odds than mom-perpetrator-only. Conclusion and Implications: Fatherhood research focused on prevention and intervention services should include Hispanic and AI/AN fathers to create culturally relevant and tailored services for both groups. By identifying differences in children’s CPS trajectories conditional on fathers’ involvement as a perpetrator, this analysis helps to inform where and how prevention efforts should be focused when considering variation in parental involvement for both populations. The findings indicate that the father’s involvement predicts substantial differences in the probability of future placement, with the direction depending on the mother’s joint involvement. Future research should investigate mediating pathways of these relationships while accounting for the unique experiences of AI/AN and Hispanic families. Each of these racial groups faces unique and differing challenges related to CPS, yet both groups have a shared understanding of the importance of fatherhood in the lives of children. Developing a better understanding of what is happening with Hispanic and AI/AN fathers as it relates to children's CPS experiences may result in new tools to reduce child maltreatment rates in these communities.

Keywords: child Abuse, child maltreatment, NDACAN, latino, native American

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89 The Influence of Fashion Bloggers on the Pre-Purchase Decision for Online Fashion Products among Generation Y Female Malaysian Consumers

Authors: Mohd Zaimmudin Mohd Zain, Patsy Perry, Lee Quinn

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This study explores how fashion consumers are influenced by fashion bloggers towards pre-purchase decision for online fashion products in a non-Western context. Malaysians rank among the world’s most avid online shoppers, with apparel the third most popular purchase category. However, extant research on fashion blogging focuses on the developed Western market context. Numerous international fashion retailers have entered the Malaysian market from luxury to fast fashion segments of the market; however Malaysian fashion consumers must balance religious and social norms for modesty with their dress style and adoption of fashion trends. Consumers increasingly mix and match Islamic and Western elements of dress to create new styles enabling them to follow Western fashion trends whilst paying respect to social and religious norms. Social media have revolutionised the way that consumers can search for and find information about fashion products. For online fashion brands with no physical presence, social media provide a means of discovery for consumers. By allowing the creation and exchange of user-generated content (UGC) online, they provide a public forum that gives individual consumers their own voices, as well as access to product information that facilitates their purchase decisions. Social media empower consumers and brands have important roles in facilitating conversations among consumers and themselves, to help consumers connect with them and one another. Fashion blogs have become an important fashion information sources. By sharing their personal style and inspiring their followers with what they wear on popular social media platforms such as Instagram, fashion bloggers have become fashion opinion leaders. By creating UGC to spread useful information to their followers, they influence the pre-purchase decision. Hence, successful Western fashion bloggers such as Chiara Ferragni may earn millions of US dollars every year, and some have created their own fashion ranges and beauty products, become judges in fashion reality shows, won awards, and collaborated with high street and luxury brands. As fashion blogging has become more established worldwide, increasing numbers of fashion bloggers have emerged from non-Western backgrounds to promote Islamic fashion styles, such as Hassanah El-Yacoubi and Dian Pelangi. This study adopts a qualitative approach using netnographic content analysis of consumer comments on two famous Malaysian fashion bloggers’ Instagram accounts during January-March 2016 and qualitative interviews with 16 Malaysian Generation Y fashion consumers during September-October 2016. Netnography adapts ethnographic techniques to the study of online communities or computer-mediated communications. Template analysis of the data involved coding comments according to the theoretical framework, which was developed from the literature review. Initial data analysis shows the strong influence of Malaysian fashion bloggers on their followers in terms of lifestyle and morals as well as fashion style. Followers were guided towards the mix and match trend of dress with Western and Islamic elements, for example, showing how vivid colours or accessories could be worked into an outfit whilst still respecting social and religious norms. The blogger’s Instagram account is a form of online community where followers can communicate and gain guidance and support from other followers, as well as from the blogger.

Keywords: fashion bloggers, Malaysia, qualitative, social media

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88 Assessing the Plant Diversity's Quality, Threats and Opportunities for the Support of Sustainable City Development of the City Raipur, India

Authors: Katharina Lapin, Debashis Sanyal

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Worldwide urban areas are growing. Urbanization has a great impact on social and economic development and ecosystem services. This global trend of urbanization also has significant impact on habitat and biodiversity. The impact of urbanization on the biodiversity of cities in Europe and North America is well studied, while there is a lack of data from cities in currently fast growing urban areas. Indian cities are expanding. The scientific community and the governmental authorities are facing the ongoing urbanization process as an opportunity for the environment. This case study supports the evaluation of urban biodiversity of the city Raipur in the North-West of India. The aim of this study is to assess the overview of the environmental and ecological implications of urbanization. The collected data and analysis was used to discuss the challenges for the sustainable city development. Vascular plants were chosen as an appropriate indicator for the assessment of local biodiversity changes. On the one hand, the vegetation cover is sensible to anthropogenic influence, and in the other hand, the local species composition is comparable to changes at the regional and national scale, using the plant index of India. Further information of abiotic situation can be gathered with the determination of indicator species. In order to calculate the influence of urbanization on the native plant diversity, the Shannon diversity index H´ was chosen. The Pielou`s pooled quadrate method was used for estimating diversity when a random sample is not expected. It was used to calculate the Pilou´s index of evenness. The estimated species coverage was used for calculating the H´ and J. Pearson correlation was performed to test the relationship between urbanization pattern and plant diversity. Further, a SWOT analysis was used in for analyzing internal and external factors impinging on a decision making process. The city of Raipur (21.25°N 81.63°E) has a population of 1,010,087 inhabitants living in an urban area of 226km², in the district of the Indian state of Chhattisgarh. Within the last decade, the urban area of Raipur increased. The results show that various novel ecosystems exist in the urban area of Raipur. The high amount of native flora is mainly to find at the shore of urban lakes and along the river Karun. These areas of high Biodiversity Index are to protect as urban biodiversity hot spots. The governmental authorities are well informed about the environmental challenges for the sustainable development of the city. Together with the scientific community of the Technical University of Raipur many engineering solutions are discussed for implementation of the future. The case study helped to point out the importance environmental measures that support the ecosystem services of green infrastructure. The fast process of urbanization is difficult to control. Uncontrolled creation of urban housing leads to difficulties in unsustainable use of natural resources. This is the major threat for the urban biodiversity.

Keywords: India, novel ecosystems, plant diversity, urban ecology

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87 Integrations of the Instructional System Design for Students Learning Achievement Motives and Science Attitudes with Stem Educational Model on Stoichiometry Issue in Chemistry Classes with Different Genders

Authors: Tiptunya Duangsri, Panwilai Chomchid, Natchanok Jansawang

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This research study was to investigate of education decisions must be made which a part of it should be passed on to future generations as obligatory for all members of a chemistry class for students who will prepare themselves for a special position. The descriptions of instructional design were provided and the recent criticisms are discussed. This research study to an outline of an integrative framework for the description of information and the instructional design model give structure to negotiate a semblance of conscious understanding. The aims of this study are to describe the instructional design model for comparisons between students’ genders of their effects on STEM educational learning achievement motives to their science attitudes and logical thinking abilities with a sample size of 18 students at the 11th grade level with the cluster random sampling technique in Mahawichanukul School were designed. The chemistry learning environment was administered with the STEM education method. To build up the 5-instrument lesson instructional plan issues were instructed innovations, the 30-item Logical Thinking Test (LTT) on 5 scales, namely; Inference, Recognition of Assumptions, Deduction, Interpretation and Evaluation scales was used. Students’ responses of their perceptions with the Test Of Chemistry-Related Attitude (TOCRA) were assessed of their attitude in science toward chemistry. The validity from Index Objective Congruence value (IOC) checked by five expert specialist educator in two chemistry classroom targets in STEM education, the E1/E2 process were equaled evidence of 84.05/81.42 which results based on criteria are higher than of 80/80 standard level with the IOC from the expert educators. Comparisons between students’ learning achievement motives with STEM educational model on stoichiometry issue in chemistry classes with different genders were differentiated at evidence level of .05, significantly. Associations between students’ learning achievement motives on their posttest outcomes and logical thinking abilities, the predictive efficiency (R2) values indicate that 69% and 70% of the variances in different male and female student groups of their logical thinking abilities. The predictive efficiency (R2) values indicate that 73%; and 74% of the variances in different male and female student groups of their science attitudes toward chemistry were associated. Statistically significant on students’ perceptions of their chemistry learning classroom environment and their science attitude toward chemistry when using the MCI and TOCRA, the predictive efficiency (R2) values indicated that 72% and 74% of the variances in different male and female student groups of their chemistry classroom climate, consequently. Suggestions that supporting chemistry or science teachers from science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) in addressing complex teaching and learning issues related instructional design to develop, teach, and assess traditional are important strategies with a focus on STEM education instructional method.

Keywords: development, the instructional design model, students learning achievement motives, science attitudes with STEM educational model, stoichiometry issue, chemistry classes, genders

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86 Seismic Perimeter Surveillance System (Virtual Fence) for Threat Detection and Characterization Using Multiple ML Based Trained Models in Weighted Ensemble Voting

Authors: Vivek Mahadev, Manoj Kumar, Neelu Mathur, Brahm Dutt Pandey

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Perimeter guarding and protection of critical installations require prompt intrusion detection and assessment to take effective countermeasures. Currently, visual and electronic surveillance are the primary methods used for perimeter guarding. These methods can be costly and complicated, requiring careful planning according to the location and terrain. Moreover, these methods often struggle to detect stealthy and camouflaged insurgents. The object of the present work is to devise a surveillance technique using seismic sensors that overcomes the limitations of existing systems. The aim is to improve intrusion detection, assessment, and characterization by utilizing seismic sensors. Most of the similar systems have only two types of intrusion detection capability viz., human or vehicle. In our work we could even categorize further to identify types of intrusion activity such as walking, running, group walking, fence jumping, tunnel digging and vehicular movements. A virtual fence of 60 meters at GCNEP, Bahadurgarh, Haryana, India, was created by installing four underground geophones at a distance of 15 meters each. The signals received from these geophones are then processed to find unique seismic signatures called features. Various feature optimization and selection methodologies, such as LightGBM, Boruta, Random Forest, Logistics, Recursive Feature Elimination, Chi-2 and Pearson Ratio were used to identify the best features for training the machine learning models. The trained models were developed using algorithms such as supervised support vector machine (SVM) classifier, kNN, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks. These models were then used to predict the category of events, employing weighted ensemble voting to analyze and combine their results. The models were trained with 1940 training events and results were evaluated with 831 test events. It was observed that using the weighted ensemble voting increased the efficiency of predictions. In this study we successfully developed and deployed the virtual fence using geophones. Since these sensors are passive, do not radiate any energy and are installed underground, it is impossible for intruders to locate and nullify them. Their flexibility, quick and easy installation, low costs, hidden deployment and unattended surveillance make such systems especially suitable for critical installations and remote facilities with difficult terrain. This work demonstrates the potential of utilizing seismic sensors for creating better perimeter guarding and protection systems using multiple machine learning models in weighted ensemble voting. In this study the virtual fence achieved an intruder detection efficiency of over 97%.

Keywords: geophone, seismic perimeter surveillance, machine learning, weighted ensemble method

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85 Reliability and Validity of a Portable Inertial Sensor and Pressure Mat System for Measuring Dynamic Balance Parameters during Stepping

Authors: Emily Rowe

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Introduction: Balance assessments can be used to help evaluate a person’s risk of falls, determine causes of balance deficits and inform intervention decisions. It is widely accepted that instrumented quantitative analysis can be more reliable and specific than semi-qualitative ordinal scales or itemised scoring methods. However, the uptake of quantitative methods is hindered by expense, lack of portability, and set-up requirements. During stepping, foot placement is actively coordinated with the body centre of mass (COM) kinematics during pre-initiation. Based on this, the potential to use COM velocity just prior to foot off and foot placement error as an outcome measure of dynamic balance is currently being explored using complex 3D motion capture. Inertial sensors and pressure mats might be more practical technologies for measuring these parameters in clinical settings. Objective: The aim of this study was to test the criterion validity and test-retest reliability of a synchronised inertial sensor and pressure mat-based approach to measure foot placement error and COM velocity while stepping. Methods: Trials were held with 15 healthy participants who each attended for two sessions. The trial task was to step onto one of 4 targets (2 for each foot) multiple times in a random, unpredictable order. The stepping target was cued using an auditory prompt and electroluminescent panel illumination. Data was collected using 3D motion capture and a combined inertial sensor-pressure mat system simultaneously in both sessions. To assess the reliability of each system, ICC estimates and their 95% confident intervals were calculated based on a mean-rating (k = 2), absolute-agreement, 2-way mixed-effects model. To test the criterion validity of the combined inertial sensor-pressure mat system against the motion capture system multi-factorial two-way repeated measures ANOVAs were carried out. Results: It was found that foot placement error was not reliably measured between sessions by either system (ICC 95% CIs; motion capture: 0 to >0.87 and pressure mat: <0.53 to >0.90). This could be due to genuine within-subject variability given the nature of the stepping task and brings into question the suitability of average foot placement error as an outcome measure. Additionally, results suggest the pressure mat is not a valid measure of this parameter since it was statistically significantly different from and much less precise than the motion capture system (p=0.003). The inertial sensor was found to be a moderately reliable (ICC 95% CIs >0.46 to >0.95) but not valid measure for anteroposterior and mediolateral COM velocities (AP velocity: p=0.000, ML velocity target 1 to 4: p=0.734, 0.001, 0.000 & 0.376). However, it is thought that with further development, the COM velocity measure validity could be improved. Possible options which could be investigated include whether there is an effect of inertial sensor placement with respect to pelvic marker placement or implementing more complex methods of data processing to manage inherent accelerometer and gyroscope limitations. Conclusion: The pressure mat is not a suitable alternative for measuring foot placement errors. The inertial sensors have the potential for measuring COM velocity; however, further development work is needed.

Keywords: dynamic balance, inertial sensors, portable, pressure mat, reliability, stepping, validity, wearables

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84 A Long Short-Term Memory Based Deep Learning Model for Corporate Bond Price Predictions

Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

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83 Persistent Organic Pollutant Level in Challawa River Basin of Kano State, Nigeria

Authors: Abdulkadir Sarauta

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Almost every type of industrial process involves the release of trace quantity of toxic organic and inorganic compound that up in receiving water bodies, this study was aimed at assessing the Persistent Organic Pollutant Level in Challawa River Basin of Kano State, Nigeria. And the research formed the basis of identifying the presence of PCBs and PAHs in receiving water bodies in the study area, assessing the PCBs and PAHs concentration in receiving water body of Challawa system, evaluate the concentration level of PCBs and PAHs in fishes in the study area, determine the concentration level of PCBs and PAHs in crops irrigated in the study area as well as compare the concentration of PCBs and PAHs with the acceptable limit set by Nigerian, EU, U.S and WHO standard. Data were collected using reconnaissance survey, site inspection, field survey, laboratory experiment as well as secondary data source. A total of 78 samples were collected through stratified systematic random sampling (i.e., 26 samples for each of water, crops and fish) three sampling points were chosen and designated A, B and C along the stretch of the river (i.e. up, middle, and downstream) from Yan Danko Bridge to Tambirawa bridge. The result shows that the Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was not detected while, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was detected in the whole samples analysed at the trench of Challawa River basin in order to assess the contribution of human activities to global environmental pollution. The total concentrations of ΣPAH and ΣPCB ranges between 0.001 to 0.087mg/l and 0.00 to 0.00mg/l of water samples While, crops samples ranges between 2.0ppb to 8.1ppb and fish samples ranges from 2.0 to 6.7ppb.The whole samples are polluted because most of the parameters analyzed exceed the threshold limits set by WHO, Nigerian, U.S and EU standard. The analytical results revealed that some chemicals are present in water, crops and fishes are significantly very high at Zamawa village which is very close to Challawa industrial estate and also is main effluent discharge point and drinking water around study area is not potable for consumption. Analysis of Variance was obtained by Bartlett’s test performance. There is only significant difference in water because the P < 0.05 level of significant, But there is no difference in crops concentration they have the same performance, likes wise in the fishes. It is said to be of concern to health hazard which will increase incidence of tumor related diseases such as skin, lungs, bladder, gastrointestinal cancer, this show there is high failure of pollution abatement measures in the area. In conclusion, it can be said that industrial activities and effluent has impact on Challawa River basin and its environs especially those that are living in the immediate surroundings. Arising from the findings of this research some recommendations were made the industries should treat their liquid properly by installing modern treatment plants.

Keywords: Challawa River Basin, organic, persistent, pollutant

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