Search results for: process hazard analysis

Authors: Kuo-Wei Liao, Jessica Gitomarsono

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Bridge reliability against natural hazards such as floods or earthquakes is an interdisciplinary problem that involves a wide range of knowledge. Moreover, due to the global climate change, engineers have to design a structure against the multi-hazard threats. Currently, few of the practical design guideline has included such concept. The bridge foundation in Taiwan often does not have a uniform width. However, few of the researches have focused on safety evaluation of a bridge with a complex pier. Investigation of the scouring depth under such situation is very important. Thus, this study first focuses on investigating and improving the scour prediction formula for a bridge with complicated foundation via experiments and artificial intelligence. Secondly, a probabilistic design procedure is proposed using the established prediction formula for practical engineers under the multi-hazard attacks.

Keywords: bridge, reliability, multi-hazards, scour

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Authors: N. Mehrotra, V. Ahuja, N. Sridharan

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Resilience is an all hazard and a proactive approach, require a multidisciplinary input in the inter related variables of the city system. This research based to identify and operationalize indicators for assessment in domain of institutions, infrastructure and knowledge, all three operating in task oriented community networks. This paper gives a brief account of the methodology developed for assessment of Urban Resilience and its prioritized components for a target population within a newly planned urban complex integrating Surajpur and Kasna village as nodes. People’s perception of Urban Resilience has been examined by conducting questionnaire survey among the target population of Greater Noida. As defined by experts, Urban Resilience of a place is considered to be both a product and process of operation to regain normalcy after an event of disturbance of certain level. Based on this methodology, six indicators are identified that contribute to perception of urban resilience both as in the process of evolution and as an outcome. The relative significance of 6 R’ has also been identified. The dependency factor of various resilience indicators have been explored in this paper, which helps in generating new perspective for future research in disaster management. Based on the stated factors this methodology can be applied to assess urban resilience requirements of a well planned town, which is not an end in itself, but calls for new beginnings.

Keywords: disaster, resilience, system, urban

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Authors: Zhipeng Yan, Janice Wing-Tung Kwong, Ching-Lung Lai

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Background: Advanced melanoma accounts for the majority of skin cancer death due to its poor prognosis. Nivolumab and ipilimumab are monoclonal antibodies targeting programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) and cytotoxic T-lymphocytes antigen 4 (CTLA-4). Nivolumab and ipilimumab combination therapy has been proven to be effective for advanced melanoma. This systematic review and meta-analysis are to evaluate its clinical efficacy and adverse events. Method: A systematic search was done on databases (Pubmed, Embase, Medline, Cochrane) on 21 June 2020. Search keywords were nivolumab, ipilimumab, melanoma, and randomised controlled trials. Clinical trials fulfilling the inclusion criteria were selected to evaluate the efficacy of combination therapy in terms of prolongation of progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and objective response rate (ORR). The odd ratios and distributions of grade 3 or above adverse events were documented. Subgroup analysis was performed based on PD-L1 expression-status and BRAF-mutation status. Results: Compared with nivolumab monotherapy, the hazard ratios of PFS, OS and odd ratio of ORR in combination therapy were 0.64 (95% CI, 0.48-0.85; p=0.002), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95; p=0.007) and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.51-2.06; p < 0.001), respectively. Compared with ipilimumab monotherapy, the hazard ratios of PFS, OS and odd ratio of ORR were 0.46 (95% CI, 0.37-0.57; p < 0.001), 0.54 (95% CI, 0.48-0.61; p < 0.001) and 6.18 (95% CI, 5.19-7.36; p < 0.001), respectively. In combination therapy, the odds ratios of grade 3 or above adverse events were 4.71 (95% CI, 3.57-6.22; p < 0.001) compared with nivolumab monotherapy, and 3.44 (95% CI, 2.49-4.74; p < 0.001) compared with ipilimumab monotherapy, respectively. High PD-L1 expression level and BRAF mutation were associated with better clinical outcomes in patients receiving combination therapy. Conclusion: Combination therapy is effective for the treatment of advanced melanoma. Adverse events were common but manageable. Better clinical outcomes were observed in patients with high PD-L1 expression levels and positive BRAF-mutation.

Keywords: nivolumab, ipilimumab, advanced melanoma, systematic review, meta-analysis

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Authors: Suzanne Phibbs, Christine Kenney, Robyn Richardson

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The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction called for the inclusion of indigenous people in the design and implementation of all hazard policies, plans, and standards. Ensuring that indigenous knowledge practices were included alongside scientific knowledge about disaster risk was also a key priority. Indigenous communities have specific knowledge about climate and natural hazard risk that has been developed over an extended period of time. However, research within indigenous communities can be fraught with issues such as power imbalances between the researcher and researched, the privileging of researcher agendas over community aspirations, as well as appropriation and/or inappropriate use of indigenous knowledge. This paper documents the process of working alongside a Māori community to develop a successful community-led research project. Research Design: This case study documents the development of a qualitative community-led participatory project. The community research project utilizes a kaupapa Māori research methodology which draws upon Māori research principles and concepts in order to generate knowledge about Māori resilience. The research addresses a significant gap in the disaster research literature relating to indigenous knowledge about collective hazard mitigation practices as well as resilience in rurally isolated indigenous communities. The research was designed in partnership with the Ngāti Raukawa Northern Marae Collective as well as Ngā Wairiki Ngāti Apa (a group of Māori sub-tribes who are located in the same region) and will be conducted by Māori researchers utilizing Māori values and cultural practices. The research project aims and objectives, for example, are based on themes that were identified as important to the Māori community research partners. The research methodology and methods were also negotiated with and approved by the community. Kaumātua (Māori elders) provided cultural and ethical guidance over the proposed research process and will continue to provide oversight over the conduct of the research. Purposive participant recruitment will be facilitated with support from local Māori community research partners, utilizing collective marae networks and snowballing methods. It is envisaged that Māori participants’ knowledge, experiences and views will be explored using face-to-face communication research methods such as workshops, focus groups and/or semi-structured interviews. Interviews or focus groups may be held in English and/or Te Reo (Māori language) to enhance knowledge capture. Analysis, knowledge dissemination, and co-authorship of publications will be negotiated with the Māori community research partners. Māori knowledge shared during the research will constitute participants’ intellectual property. New knowledge, theory, frameworks, and practices developed by the research will be co-owned by Māori, the researchers, and the host academic institution. Conclusion: An emphasis on indigenous knowledge systems within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction risks the appropriation and misuse of indigenous experiences of disaster risk identification, mitigation, and response. The research protocol underpinning this project provides an exemplar of collaborative partnership in the development and implementation of an indigenous project that has relevance to policymakers, academic researchers, other regions with indigenous communities and/or local disaster risk reduction knowledge practices.

Keywords: community resilience, indigenous disaster risk reduction, Maori, research methods

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Authors: Apichit Svang-Ariyaskul, Thanapat Chaireongsirikul, Pawit Tangviroon

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Distillation consumes enormous quantity of energy. This work proposed a process to recover the energy from exit streams during the distillation process of three consecutive columns. There are several novel techniques to recover the heat with the distillation system; however, a complex control system is required. This work proposed a simpler technique by exchanging the heat between streams without interrupting the internal distillation process that might cause a serious control problem. The proposed process is executed by using heat exchanger network with pinch analysis to maximize the process heat recovery. The test model is the distillation of butane, pentane, hexane, and heptanes, which is a common mixture in the petroleum refinery. This proposed process saved the energy consumption for hot and cold utilities of 29 and 27%, which is considered significant. Therefore, the recovery of heat from exit streams from distillation process is proved to be effective for energy saving.

Keywords: distillation, heat exchanger, network pinch analysis, chemical engineering

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Authors: Zubair Ahmad

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Specific activities of the natural radionuclides 238U, 232Th and 40K were measured by using γ - ray spectrometric technique in soil samples collected from the city of Dhanbad, which is located near coal mines. Mean activity values for 238U, 232Th and 40K were found to be 60.29 Bq/kg, 64.50 Bq/kg and 481.0 Bq/kg, respectively. Mean radium equivalent activity, absorbed dose rate, outdoor dose, external hazard index, internal hazard index, for the area under study were determined as 189.53 Bq/kg, 87.21 nGy/h, 0.37 mSv/y, 0.52 and 0.64, respectively. The annual effective dose to the general public was found 0.44 mSv/y. This value lies well below the limit of 1 mSv/y as recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection. Measured values were found safe for environment and public health.

Keywords: coal city Dhanbad, gamma-ray spectroscopy, natural radioactivity, soil samples

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Authors: Dorna Kargar, Mehrasa Masih

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Due to its special geological and geographical conditions, Iran has always been exposed to various natural hazards. Earthquake is one of the natural hazards with random nature that can cause significant financial damages and casualties. This is a serious threat, especially in areas with active faults. Therefore, considering the population density in some parts of the country, locating and zoning high-risk areas are necessary and significant. In the present study, seismic hazard assessment via probabilistic and deterministic method for Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is located in Alborz-Azerbaijan province, has been done. The seismicity study covers a range of 200 km from the north of Tehran (X=35.74° and Y= 51.37° in LAT-LONG coordinate system) to identify the seismic sources and seismicity parameters of the study region. In order to identify the seismic sources, geological maps at the scale of 1: 250,000 are used. In this study, we used Kijko-Sellevoll's method (1992) to estimate seismicity parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude Mmax, activity rate λ, and the Gutenberg-Richter parameter b) from incomplete data files is extended to the case of uncertain magnitude values. By the combination of seismicity and seismotectonic studies of the site, the acceleration with antiseptic probability may happen during the useful life of the structure is calculated with probabilistic and deterministic methods. Applying the results of performed seismicity and seismotectonic studies in the project and applying proper weights in used attenuation relationship, maximum horizontal and vertical acceleration for return periods of 50, 475, 950 and 2475 years are calculated. Horizontal peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.12g, 0.30g, 0.37g and 0.50, and Vertical peak ground acceleration on the seismic bedrock for 50, 475, 950 and 2475 return periods are 0.08g, 0.21g, 0.27g and 0.36g.

Keywords: peak ground acceleration, probabilistic and deterministic, seismic hazard assessment, seismicity parameters

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Authors: Maurice Bilioniere, Katie Lanneau

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Suddenly appeared in 2011, invasions of sargasso seaweeds Fluitans and Natans are a climatic hazard which causes many problems in the Caribbean. Faced with the growth and frequency of the phenomenon of massive sargasso stranding on their coasts, the French West Indies are moving towards the path of industrial recovery. In this context of innovative projects, we will analyze the necessary requirements for the management and performance of the supply chain, taking into account the observed volatility of the sargasso input. Our prospective approach will consist in studying the theoretical framework of modeling a hybrid supply chain by coupling the discreet event simulation (DES) with a valuation of the process costs according to the "activity-based costing" method (ABC). The PREVA approach (PRocess EVAluation) chosen for our modeling has the advantage of evaluating the financial flows of the logistic process using an analytical model chained with an action model for the evaluation or optimization of physical flows.

Keywords: sargasso, PREVA modeling, supply chain, ABC method, discreet event simulation (DES)

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Rahmad Wisnu Wardana, Eakachai Warinsiriruk, Sutep Joy-A-Ka

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Selecting the most suitable welding process usually depends on experiences or common application in similar companies. However, this approach generally ignores many criteria that can be affecting the suitable welding process selection. Therefore, knowledge automation through knowledge-based systems will significantly improve the decision-making process. The aims of this research propose integrated data envelopment analysis (DEA) and fuzzy credibility constrained programming approach for identifying the best welding process for stainless steel storage tank in the food and beverage industry. The proposed approach uses fuzzy concept and credibility measure to deal with uncertain data from experts' judgment. Furthermore, 12 parameters are used to determine the most appropriate welding processes among six competitive welding processes.

Keywords: welding process selection, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy credibility constrained programming, storage tank

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Authors: Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Process yield of electric discharge machining (EDM) is directly related to optimal combination(s) of process parameters. Optimization of process parameters of EDM is a multi-objective optimization problem owing to the contradictory behavior of performance measures. This paper employs Grey Relation Analysis (GRA) method as a multi-objective optimization technique for the optimal selection of process parameters combination. In GRA, multi-response optimization is converted into optimization of a single response grey relation grade which ultimately gives the optimal combination of process parameters. Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM by taking D2 steel as work piece and copper as electrode material. Taguchi's orthogonal array L36 was used for the design of experiments. On the experimental values, GRA was employed for the parametric optimization. A significant improvement has been observed and reported in the process yield by taking the parametric combination(s) obtained through GRA.

Keywords: electric discharge machining, grey relation analysis, material removal rate, optimization

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Authors: B. Ravi Kumar, S. Gajanana, K. Hemachandra Reddy, K. Udayani

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Physically into various derived shapes and sizes under the effect of externally applied forces. The spinning process is an advanced plastic working technology and is frequently used for manufacturing axisymmetric shapes. Over the last few decades, Sheet metal spinning has developed significantly and spun products have widely used in various industries. Nowadays the process has been expanded to new horizons in industries, since tendency to use minimum tool and equipment costs and also using lower forces with the output of excellent surface quality and good mechanical properties. The automation of the process is of greater importance, due to its wider applications like decorative household goods, rocket nose cones, gas cylinders, etc. This paper aims to gain insight into the conventional spinning process by employing experimental and numerical methods. The present work proposes an approach for optimizing process parameters are mandrel speed (rpm), roller nose radius (mm), thickness of the sheet (mm). Forming force, surface roughness and strain are the responses.in spinning of Aluminum (2024-T3) using DOE-Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Analysis of variance (ANOVA). The FEA software is used for modeling and analysis. The process parameters considered in the experimentation.

Keywords: FEA, RSM, process parameters, sheet metal spinning

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Tesfaye Alamirew Dessie

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Our study focuses on developing a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) and evaluating it against a traditional PID for a pasteurization process. Utilizing system identification from the experimental data, the dynamics of the pasteurization process were calculated. Using best fit with data validation, residual, and stability analysis, the quality of several model architectures was evaluated. The validation data fit the auto-regressive with exogenous input (ARX322) model of the pasteurization process by roughly 80.37 percent. The ARX322 model structure was used to create MPC and PID control techniques. After comparing controller performance based on settling time, overshoot percentage, and stability analysis, it was found that MPC controllers outperform PID for those parameters.

Keywords: MPC, PID, ARX, pasteurization

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Authors: Urooj Saeed, Sajid Rashid Ahmad, Iqra Khalid, Sahar Mirza, Imtiaz Younas

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Pakistan, a flood-prone country, has experienced worst floods in the recent past which have caused extensive damage to the urban and rural areas by loss of lives, damage to infrastructure and agricultural fields. Poor flood management system in the country has projected the risks of damages as the increasing frequency and magnitude of floods are felt as a consequence of climate change; affecting national economy directly or indirectly. To combat the needs of flood emergency, this paper focuses on remotely sensed data based approach for rapid mapping and monitoring of flood extent and its damages so that fast dissemination of information can be done, from local to national level. In this research study, spatial extent of the flooding caused by heavy rains of 2014 has been mapped by using space borne data to assess the crop damages and affected population in sixteen districts of Punjab. For this purpose, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to daily mark the flood extent by using Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI). The highest flood value data was integrated with the LandScan 2014, 1km x 1km grid based population, to calculate the affected population in flood hazard zone. It was estimated that the floods covered an area of 16,870 square kilometers, with 3.0 million population affected. Moreover, to assess the flood damages, Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) aided with spectral signatures was applied on Landsat image to attain the thematic layers of healthy (0.54 million acre) and damaged crops (0.43 million acre). The study yields that the population of Jhang district (28% of 2.5 million population) was affected the most. Whereas, in terms of crops, Jhang and Muzzafargarh are the ‘highest damaged’ ranked district of floods 2014 in Punjab. This study was completed within 24 hours of the peak flood time, and proves to be an effective methodology for rapid assessment of damages due to flood hazard

Keywords: flood hazard, space borne data, object based image analysis, rapid damage assessment

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Unexpected events may occur with serious impacts on industrial process. This work utilizes a data representation technique to model and to analyze process data pattern for the purpose of diagnosis. In this work, the use of triangular representation of process data is evaluated using simulation process. Furthermore, the effect of using different pre-treatment techniques based on such as linear or nonlinear reduced spaces was compared. This work extracted the fault pattern in the reduced space, not in the original data space. The results have shown that the non-linear technique based diagnosis method produced more reliable results and outperforms linear method.

Keywords: process monitoring, data analysis, pattern modeling, fault, nonlinear techniques

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Authors: Elitaria Bestri Agustina Siregar, Boni Fasius Siregar

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The paper concerned with the transitivity in the reading passage of English textbook for Senior High School. The six types of process were occurred in the passages with percentage as follows: Material Process is 166 (42%), Relational Process is 155 (39%), Mental Process is 39 (10%), Verbal Process is 21 (5%), Existential Process is 13 (3), and Behavioral Process is 5 (1%). The material processes were found to be the most frequently used process type in the samples in our corpus (41,60 %). This indicates that the twenty reading passages are centrally concerned with action and events. Related to developmental psychology theory, this book fits the needs of students of this age.

Keywords: transitivity, types of processes, reading passages, developmental psycholoy

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Authors: C. Patrascioiu, M. Jamali

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The paper deals with the simulation of the crude distillation process using the Unisim Design simulator. The necessity of simulating this process is argued both by considerations related to the design of the crude distillation column, but also by considerations related to the design of advanced control systems. In order to use the Unisim Design simulator to simulate the crude distillation process, the identification of the simulators used in Romania and an analysis of the PRO/II, HYSYS, and Aspen HYSYS simulators were carried out. Analysis of the simulators for the crude distillation process has allowed the authors to elaborate the conclusions of the success of the crude modelling. A first aspect developed by the authors is the implementation of specific problems of petroleum liquid-vapors equilibrium using Unisim Design simulator. The second major element of the article is the development of the methodology and the elaboration of the simulation program for the crude distillation process, using Unisim Design resources. The obtained results validate the proposed methodology and will allow dynamic simulation of the process.  

Keywords: crude oil, distillation, simulation, Unisim Design, simulators

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Eva Štěpánková

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The decision-making process is theoretically clearly defined. Generally, it includes the problem identification and analysis, data gathering, goals and criteria setting, alternatives development and optimal alternative choice and its implementation. In practice however, various modifications of the theoretical decision-making process can occur. The managers can consider some of the phases to be too complicated or unfeasible and thus they do not carry them out and conversely some of the steps can be overestimated. The aim of the paper is to reveal and characterize the perception of the individual phases of decision-making process by the managers. The research is concerned with managers in the military environment–commanders. Quantitative survey is focused cross-sectionally in the individual levels of management of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. On the total number of 135 respondents the analysis focuses on which of the decision-making process phases are problematic or not carried out in practice and which are again perceived to be the easiest. Then it is examined the reasons of the findings.

Keywords: decision making, decision making process, decision problems, concrete organization

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Authors: Kareem Saber

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Many products’ design instructors search for how to help students to develop their designs simply by reducing design stages and extrapolating simple design process forms to achieve design creativity. So, the researcher extrapolated a new design process form called “hierarchical design” which reduced design process into three stages and he had tried that methodology on about two hundred students. That trial had led to great results as students could develop their designs which characterized by creativity and innovation. That proved the success and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: mind mapping, morphological analysis, product design, design process

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Authors: Sara Muhammad Elqudah, Vigh László Gergely

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Catastrophic events, such as earthquakes, are sudden, short, and devastating, threatening lives, demolishing futures, and causing huge economic losses. Current seismic analyses and design standards are based on life safety levels where only some residual strength and stiffness are left in the structure leaving it beyond economical repair. Consequently, it has become necessary to introduce and implement the concept of resilient design. Resilient design is about designing for ductility over time by resisting, absorbing, and recovering from the effects of a hazard in an appropriate and efficient time manner while maintaining the functionality of the structure in the aftermath of the incident. Resilient analysis is mainly based on the fragility, vulnerability, and functionality curves where eventually a resilience index is generated from these curves, and the higher this index is, the better is the performance of the structure. In this paper, seismic performances of a simple two story reinforced concrete building, located in a moderate seismic region, has been evaluated using the conventional seismic analyses methods, which are the linear static analysis, the response spectrum analysis, and the pushover analysis, and the generated results of these analyses methods are compared to those of the resilient analysis. Results highlight that the resilience analysis was the most convenient method in generating a more ductile and functional structure from a socio-economic perspective, in comparison to the standard seismic analysis methods.

Keywords: conventional analysis methods, functionality, resilient analysis, seismic performance

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Authors: Mok-Tan Ahn, Hyeok Choi, Joon-Hong Park

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Multi-stage drawing process is an important technique for forming a shape that cannot be molded in a single process. multi-stage drawing process in number of passes and the shape of the die are an important factor influencing the productivity and moldability of the product. The number and shape of the multi-path in the mold of the drawing process is very influencing the productivity and moldability of the product. Half angle of the die and mandrel affects the drawing force and it also affects the completion of the final shape. Thus reducing the number of pass and the die shape optimization are necessary to improve the formability of the billet. The purpose of this study, Analyzing the load on the die through the FEM analysis and in consideration of the formability of the material presents a die model.

Keywords: automotive reinforcing agent, multi-pass shape drawing, automotive parts, FEM analysis

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Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

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A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms

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Authors: Bayu Rizky Pratama, Hardiansyah Nur Sahaya

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Riau Province is the worst emitter for forest burning which causes the huge scale of externality such as declining of forest habitat, health disease, and climate change impact. Indonesia forum of budget transparency for Riau Province (FITRA) reported the length of forest burning reached about 186.069 hectares which is 7,13% of total national forest burning disaster, consisted of 107.000 hectares of peatland and the rest 79.069 hectares of mineral land. Anti-fire group, a voluntary group next to the forest, to help in protecting the forest burning and heavily smoke residual has been established but unfortunately the implementation still far from expectation. This research will emphasize on (1) how the anti-fire group contribute to fire hazard tackling; (2) the identification of SWOT analysis to enhance the group benefit; and (3) government policy implication to maximize the role of Anti-fire group and reduce the case of forest burning as well as heavily smoke which can raise climate change impact. As the observation found some weakness from SWOT identification such as (1) lack of education and training; (2) facility in extinguishing the fire damage; (3) law for economic incentive; (4) communication and field experience; (5) also the reporting the fire case.

Keywords: anti-fire group, forest burning impact, SWOT, climate change mitigation

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Authors: Alev Atak

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We study the endogeneity in the cryptocurrency market over the branching ratio of the Hawkes process and evaluate the movement of self-excitability in the financial markets. We consider a semi-parametric self-exciting point process regression model where the excitation function is assumed to be smooth and decreasing but otherwise unspecified, and the baseline intensity is assumed to be a linear function of the regressors. We apply the empirical analysis to the three largest crypto assets, i.e. Bitcoin - Ethereum - Ripple, and provide a comparison with other financial assets such as SP500, Gold, and the volatility index VIX observed from January 2015 to December 2020. The results depict variable and high levels of endogeneity in the basket of cryptocurrencies under investigation, underlining the evidence of a significant role of endogenous feedback mechanisms in the price formation process.

Keywords: hawkes process, cryptocurrency, endogeneity, reflexivity

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Ben Cheikh Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ammar Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Meddeb Khaoula, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

Abstract:

Background: Hospital Acquired Infection (HAI) constitutes an important worldwide health problem. It was associated with high mortality rate in intensive care units (ICU). This study aimed to determine HAI mortality rate in Tunisian intensive care units and identify its risk factors. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a 12 months period (September 15th 2015 to September 15 th 2016) in the adult medical ICU of University Hospital-Farhat Hached (Sousse-Tunisia). All patients admitted in the ICU for more than 48 hours were included in the study. We used an anonymous standardized survey record form to collect data by a medical hygienist assisted by an intensivist. We adopted definitions of Center for Diseases Control and prevention of Atlanta to detect HAI, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression to identify independent risk factor of HAI mortality. Results: Of 171 patients, 67 developed ICU-acquired infection (global incidence rate=39.2%). The mean age of patients was 59 ± 21.2 years and 60.8% were male. The most frequently identified infections were pulmonary acquired infection (ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) and infected atelectasis with density rates 21.4 VAP/1000 days of mechanical ventilation and 9.4 infected atelectasis /1000 days of mechanical ventilation; respectively) and central venous catheter associated infection (CVC - AI) with density rate 28.4 CVC-AI / 1000 CVC-days). HAI mortality rate was 66.7% (n=44). The median survival was 20 days 3.36, 95% Confidential Interval [13.39 – 26.60]. Specific mortality rates according to infectious site were 65.5%, 36.4% and 4.5% respectively for VAP, CVC associated infection and infected atelectasis. In univariate analysis, a significant associations between mortality and cardiovascular history (p=0.04) tracheotomy (p=0.00), peripheral venous catheterization (p=0.04), VAP (p=0.04) and infected atelectasis (p=0.04) were detected. Independent risk factors for HAI mortality were VAP with Hazard Ratio = 3.14, 95% Confidential Interval [1.63 – 6.05] (p=0.001) and tracheotomy (Hazard Ratio=0.22, 95% Confidential Interval [0.10 – 0.44], p=0.000). Conclusions: In the present study, hospital acquired infection mortality rate was relatively high. We need to intensify the fight against these infections especially ventilator-associated pneumonia that is associated with higher risk of mortality in many studies. Thus, more effective infection control interventions were necessary in our hospital.

Keywords: hospital acquired infection, intensive care unit, mortality, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Ifeyinwa Rita Kanu, Thomas Aspray, Adebayo J. Adeloye

Abstract:

As a result of the ambiguity and complexity surrounding anaerobic digester foaming, efforts have been made by various researchers to understand the process of anaerobic digester foaming so as to proffer a solution that can be universally applied rather than site specific. All attempts ranging from experimental analysis to comparative review of other process has been futile at explaining explicitly the conditions and process of foaming in anaerobic digester. Studying the available knowledge on foam formation and relating it to anaerobic digester process and operating condition, this study presents a succinct and enhanced understanding of foaming in anaerobic digesters as well as introducing a simple and novel method to identify the onset of anaerobic digester foaming based on analysis of historical data from a field scale system.

Keywords: anaerobic digester, foaming, biogas, surfactant, wastewater

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

Abstract:

Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 592