Search results for: probability formula

Authors: Shruti Chopra, Vikas Rao Vadi

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In the era of the digital world, the Internet of Things (IoT) has been receiving significant attention. Its ubiquitous connectivity between humans, machines to machines (M2M) and machines to humans provides it a potential to transform the society and establish an ecosystem to serve new dimensions to the economy of the country. Thereby, this study has attempted to identify the challenges that seem prevalent in IoT adoption in India through the literature survey. Further, the data has been collected by taking the opinions of experts to conduct the foresight analysis and it has been analyzed with the help of scenario planning process – Micmac, Mactor, Multipol, and Smic-Prob. As a methodology, the study has identified the relationship between variables through variable analysis using Micmac and actor analysis using Mactor, this paper has attempted to generate the entire field of possibilities in terms of hypotheses and construct various scenarios through Multipol. And lastly, the findings of the study include final scenarios that are selected using Smic-Prob by assigning the probability to all the scenarios (including the conditional probability). This study may help the practitioners and policymakers to remove the obstacles to successfully implement the IoT in India.

Keywords: Internet of Thing (IoT), foresight analysis, scenario planning, challenges, policymaking

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Authors: S. Zhang, L. Zhang, X. Chen

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Due to the large uncertainty on the mechanical properties of FRP (fibre reinforced plastic), the reliability evaluation of FRP structures are currently receiving much attention in industry. However, possible statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties has been so far overlooked, and they are mostly assumed to be independent random variables. In this study, the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties of uni-directional and plain weave composite is firstly analyzed by a combination of Monte-Carlo simulation and finite element modeling of the FRP unit cell. Large linear correlation coefficients between the in-plane mechanical properties are observed, and the correlation coefficients are heavily dependent on the uncertainty of the fibre volume ratio. It is also observed that the correlation coefficients related to Poisson’s ratio are negative while others are positive. To experimentally achieve the statistical correlation coefficients between in-plane mechanical properties of FRP, all concerned in-plane mechanical properties of the same specimen needs to be known. In-plane shear modulus of FRP is experimentally derived by the approach suggested in the ASTM standard D5379M. Tensile tests are conducted using the same specimens used for the shear test, and due to non-uniform tensile deformation a modification factor is derived by a finite element modeling. Digital image correlation is adopted to characterize the specimen non-uniform deformation. The preliminary experimental results show a good agreement with the numerical analysis on the statistical correlation. Then, failure probability of laminate plates is calculated in cases considering and not considering the statistical correlation, using the Monte-Carlo and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo methods, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the statistical correlation between ply mechanical properties to achieve accurate failure probability of laminate plates. Furthermore, it is found that for the multi-layer laminate plate, the statistical correlation between the ply elastic properties significantly affects the laminate reliability while the effect of statistical correlation between the ply strength is minimal.

Keywords: failure probability, FRP, reliability, statistical correlation

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Authors: Andre Slonopas, Zona Kostic, Warren Thompson

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Obfuscation is one of the most useful tools to prevent network compromise. Previous research focused on the obfuscation of the network communications between external-facing edge devices. This work proposes the use of two edge devices, external and internal facing, which communicate via private IPv4 addresses in a software-defined pseudo-random IP hopping. This methodology does not require additional IP addresses and/or resources to implement. Statistical analyses demonstrate that the hopping surface must be at least 1e3 IP addresses in size with a broad standard deviation to minimize the possibility of coincidence of monitored and communication IPs. The probability of breaking the hopping algorithm requires a collection of at least 1e6 samples, which for large hopping surfaces will take years to collect. The probability of dropped packets is controlled via memory buffers and the frequency of hops and can be reduced to levels acceptable for video streaming. This methodology provides an impenetrable layer of security ideal for information and supervisory control and data acquisition systems.

Keywords: moving target defense, cybersecurity, network security, hopping randomization, software defined network, network security theory

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Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

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Authors: Valery Yakubovich, Shuping wu

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Organization theorists have long claimed that organizational innovations are nontechnological, in part because they are unpatentable. The claim rests on the assumption that organizational innovations are abstract ideas embodied in persons and contexts rather than in context-free practical tools. However, over the last three decades, organizational knowledge has been increasingly embodied in digital tools which, in principle, can be patented. To provide the first empirical evidence regarding the patentability of organizational innovations, we trained two machine learning algorithms to identify a population of 205,434 patent applications for organizational technologies (OrgTech) and, among them, 141,285 applications that use organizational innovations accumulated over the 20th century. Our event history analysis of the probability of patenting an OrgTech invention shows that ideas from organizational innovations decrease the probability of patent allowance unless they describe a practical tool. We conclude that the present-day digital transformation places organizational innovations in the realm of high tech and turns the debate about organizational technologies into the challenge of designing practical organizational tools that embody big ideas about organizing. We outline an agenda for patent-based research on OrgTech as an emerging phenomenon.

Keywords: organizational innovation, organizational technology, high tech, patents, machine learning

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Authors: Farhad Abbas Gandomkar, Mona Danesh

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This paper aims to determine Fundamental Natural Frequency (FNF) of a structural composite floor system known as Chromite. To achieve this purpose, FNFs of studied panels are determined by development of Finite Element Models (FEMs) in ABAQUS program. American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC) code in Steel Design Guide Series 11, presents a fundamental formula to calculate FNF of a steel framed floor system. This formula has been used to verify results of the FEMs. The variability in the FNF of the studied system under various parameters such as dimensions of floor, boundary conditions, rigidity of main and secondary beams around the floor, thickness of concrete slab, height of composite joists, distance between composite joists, thickness of top and bottom flanges of the open web steel joists, and adding tie beam perpendicular on the composite joists, is determined. The results show that changing in dimensions of the system, its boundary conditions, rigidity of main beam, and also adding tie beam, significant changes the FNF of the system up to 452.9%, 50.8%, -52.2%, %52.6%, respectively. In addition, increasing thickness of concrete slab increases the FNF of the system up to 10.8%. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that variation in rigidity of secondary beam, height of composite joist, and distance between composite joists, and thickness of top and bottom flanges of open web steel joists insignificant changes the FNF of the studied system up to -0.02%, -3%, -6.1%, and 0.96%, respectively. Finally, the results of this study help designer predict occurrence of resonance, comfortableness, and design criteria of the studied system.

Keywords: Fundamental Natural Frequency, Chromite Composite Floor System, Finite Element Method, low and high frequency floors, Comfortableness, resonance.

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Authors: Daniel Etim Jacob, Samuel Onadeko, Edem A. Eniang, Imaobong Ufot Nelson

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This paper examined determinants of income diversification among households in support zones communities of national parks in Nigeria. This involved the use household data collected through questionnaires administered randomly among 1009 household heads in the study area. The data obtained were analyzed using probability and non-probability statistical analysis such as regression and analysis of variance to test for mean difference between parks. The result obtained indicates that majority of the household heads were male (92.57%0, between the age class of 21 – 40 years (44.90%), had non-formal education (38.16%), were farmers (65.21%), owned land (95.44%), with a household size of 1 – 5 (36.67%) and an annual income range of ₦401,000 - ₦600,000 (24.58%). Mean Simpson index of diversity showed a general low (0.375) level of income diversification among the households. Income, age, off-farm dependence, education, household size and occupation where significant (p<0.01) factors that affected households’ income diversification. The study recommends improvement in the existing infrastructures and social capital in the communities as avenues to improve the livelihood and ensure positive conservation behaviors in the study area.

Keywords: income diversification, protected area, livelihood, poverty, Nigeria

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Authors: Ahmed Abdullah Ahmed

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The task of recognizing the writer of a handwritten text has been an attractive research problem in the document analysis and recognition community with applications in handwriting forensics, paleography, document examination and handwriting recognition. This research presents an automatic method for writer recognition from digitized images of unconstrained writings. Although a great effort has been made by previous studies to come out with various methods, their performances, especially in terms of accuracy, are fallen short, and room for improvements is still wide open. The proposed technique employs optimal codebook based writer characterization where each writing sample is represented by a set of features computed from two codebooks, beginning and ending. Unlike most of the classical codebook based approaches which segment the writing into graphemes, this study is based on fragmenting a particular area of writing which are beginning and ending strokes. The proposed method starting with contour detection to extract significant information from the handwriting and the curve fragmentation is then employed to categorize the handwriting into Beginning and Ending zones into small fragments. The similar fragments of beginning strokes are grouped together to create Beginning cluster, and similarly, the ending strokes are grouped to create the ending cluster. These two clusters lead to the development of two codebooks (beginning and ending) by choosing the center of every similar fragments group. Writings under study are then represented by computing the probability of occurrence of codebook patterns. The probability distribution is used to characterize each writer. Two writings are then compared by computing distances between their respective probability distribution. The evaluations carried out on ICFHR standard dataset of 206 writers using Beginning and Ending codebooks separately. Finally, the Ending codebook achieved the highest identification rate of 98.23%, which is the best result so far on ICFHR dataset.

Keywords: off-line text-independent writer identification, feature extraction, codebook, fragments

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Authors: Liang Ming Zhong, Yu Zhong, Wen Zhong, Fei Fei Yin

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Trinary affinity is a description of existence: every object exists as it is known and spoken of, in a system of 2 differences (denoted dif1, dif₂) and 1 similarity (Sim), equivalently expressed as dif₁ / Sim / dif₂ and kn / 0 / tkn (kn = the known, tkn = the 'to be known', 0 = the zero point of knowing). They are mathematically verified and illustrated in this paper by the arrangement of all integers onto 3 columns, where each number exists as a difference in relation to another number as another difference, and the 2 difs as arbitrated by a third number as the Sim, resulting in a trinary affinity or trinity of 3 numbers, of which one is the known, the other the 'to be known', and the third the zero (0) from which both the kn and tkn are measured and specified. Consequently, any number is horizontally specified either as 3n, or as '3n – 1' or '3n + 1', and vertically as 'Cn + c', so that any number seems to occur at the intersection of its X and Y axes and represented by its X and Y coordinates, as any point on Earth’s surface by its latitude and longitude. Technically, i) primes are viewed and treated as progenitors, and composites as descending from them, forming families of composites, each capable of being measured and specified from its own zero called in this paper the realistic zero (denoted 0r, as contrasted to the mathematic zero, 0m), which corresponds to the constant c, and the nature of which separates the composite and prime numbers, and ii) any number is considered as having a magnitude as well as a position, so that a number is verified as a prime first by referring to its descriptive formula and then by making sure that no composite number can possibly occur on its position, by dividing it with factors provided by the composite number formulas. The paper consists of 3 parts: 1) a brief explanation of the trinary affinity of things, 2) the 8 formulas that represent ALL the primes, and 3) families of composite numbers, each represented by a formula. A composite number family is described as 3n + f₁‧f₂. Since there are an infinitely large number of composite number families, to verify the primality of a great probable prime, we have to have it divided with several or many a f₁ from a range of composite number formulas, a procedure that is as laborious as it is the surest way to verifying a great number’s primality. (So, it is possible to substitute planned division for trial division.)

Keywords: trinary affinity, difference, similarity, realistic zero

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Authors: Ibrahim Turfanda, Soniya Rai, Karan Vadher

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Objectives— The study aims to compare real-world adherence to and persistence with dulaglutide and liraglutide in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating treatment in UAE. Methods— This was a retrospective, non-interventional study (observation period: 01 March 2017–31 August 2019) using the UAE Dubai e-Claims database. Included: adult patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide 01 September 2017–31 August 2018 (index period) with: ≥1 claim for T2D in the 6 months before index date (ID); ≥1 claim for dulaglutide/liraglutide during index period; and continuous medical enrolment for ≥6 months before and ≥12 months after ID. Key endpoints, assessed 3/6/12 months after ID: adherence to treatment (proportion of days covered [PDC; PDC ≥80% considered ‘adherent’], per-group mean±standard deviation [SD] PDC); and persistence (number of continuous therapy days from ID until discontinuation [i.e., >45 days gap] or end of observation period). Patients initiating dulaglutide/liraglutide were propensity score matched (1:1) based on baseline characteristics. Between-group comparison of adherence was analysed using the McNemar test (α=0.025). Persistence was analysed using Kaplan–Meier estimates with log-rank tests (α=0.025) for between-group comparisons. This study presents 12-month outcomes. Results— Following propensity score matching, 263 patients were included in each group. Mean±SD PDC for all patients at 12 months was significantly higher in the dulaglutide versus the liraglutide group (dulaglutide=0.48±0.30, liraglutide=0.39±0.28, p=0.0002). The proportion of adherent patients favored dulaglutide (dulaglutide=20.2%, liraglutide=12.9%, p=0.0302), as did the probability of being adherent to treatment (odds ratio [97.5% CI]: 1.70 [0.99, 2.91]; p=0.03). Proportion of persistent patients also favoured dulaglutide (dulaglutide=15.2%, liraglutide=9.1%, p=0.0528), as did the probability of discontinuing treatment 12 months after ID (p=0.027). Conclusions— Based on the UAE Dubai e-Claims database data, dulaglutide initiators exhibited significantly greater adherence in terms of mean PDC versus liraglutide initiators. The proportion of adherent patients and the probability of being adherent favored the dulaglutide group, as did treatment persistence.

Keywords: adherence, dulaglutide, effectiveness, liraglutide, persistence

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Authors: Leila Batmany

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This research studies the relationship between the feeling of distributive justice and national identity of the youth. The present analysis intends to experimentally investigate the various dimensions of the justice feeling and its effect on the national identity components. The study has taken justice into consideration from four different points of view on the basis of availability of valuable social sources such as power, wealth, knowledge and status in the political, economic, and cultural and status justice respectively. Furthermore, the national identity has been considered as the feeling of honour, attachment and commitment towards national society and its seven components i.e. history, language, culture, political system, religion, geographical territory and society. The 'field study' has been used as the method for the research with the individual as unit, taking 368 young between the age of 18 and 29 living in Tehran, chosen randomly according to Cochran formula. The individual samples have been randomly chosen among five districts in north, south, west, east, and centre of Tehran, based on the multistage cluster sampling. The data collection has been performed with the use of questionnaire and interview. The most important results are as follows: i) The feeling of economic justice is the weakest one among the youth. ii) The strongest and the weakest dimensions of the national identity are, respectively, the historical and the social dimension. iii) There is a positive and meaningful relationship between the feeling political and statues justice and then national identity, whereas no meaningful relationship exists between the economic and cultural justice and the national identity. iv) There is a positive and meaningful relationship between the feeling of justice in all dimensions and legitimacy of the political system. There is also such a relationship between the legitimacy of the political system and national identity. v) Generally, there is a positive and meaningful relationship between the feeling of distributive justice and national identity among the youth. vi) It is through the legitimacy of the political system that justice feeling can have an influence on the national identity.

Keywords: distributive justice, national identity, legitimacy of political system, Cochran formula, multistage cluster sampling

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a severe health problem which is common among obese individuals. The components of MetS are rather stable in adults compared to the components discussed for children. Due to the ambiguity in this group of the population, how to diagnose MetS in morbid obese (MO) children still constitutes a matter of discussion. For this purpose, a formula, which facilitates the diagnosis of MetS in MO children, was investigated. The aim of this study was to develop a formula which was capable of discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings. Study population comprised MO children. Age and sex-dependent body mass index (BMI) percentiles of the children were above 99. Metabolic syndrome components were also determined. Elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP and DBP), elevated fasting blood glucose (FBG), elevated triglycerides (TRG), and/or depressed high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in addition to central obesity were listed as MetS components for each child. Presence of at least two of these components confirmed that the case was MetS. Two groups were constituted. In the first group, there were forty-two MO children without MetS components. Second group was composed of forty-four MO children with at least two MetS components. Anthropometric measurements, including weight, height, waist, and hip circumferences, were performed following physical examination. Body mass index and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance values were calculated. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the children. Institutional Non-Interventional Ethics Committee approved the study design. Blood pressure values were recorded. Routine biochemical analysis, including FBG, insulin (INS), TRG, HDL-C were performed. The performance and the clinical utility of the Diagnostic Obesity Notation Model Assessment Metabolic Syndrome Index (DONMA MetS index) [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)*100] was tested. Appropriate statistical tests were applied to the study data. p value smaller than 0.05 was defined as significant. Metabolic syndrome index values were 41.6±5.1 in MO group and 104.4±12.8 in MetS group. Corresponding values for HDL-C values were 54.5±13.2 mg/dl and 44.2±11.5 mg/dl. There were statistically significant differences between the groups (p<0.001). Upon evaluation of the correlations between MetS index and HDL-C values, a much stronger negative correlation was found in MetS group (r=-0.515; p=0.001) in comparison with the correlation detected in MO group (r=-0.371; p=0.016). From these findings, it was concluded that the statistical significance degree of the difference between MO and MetS groups was highly acceptable for this recently introduced MetS index as expected. This was due to the involvement of all of the biochemically defined MetS components into the index. This is particularly important because each of these four parameters used in the formula is cardiac risk factor. Aside from discriminating MO children with and without MetS findings, MetS index introduced in this study is important from the cardiovascular risk point of view in MetS group of children.

Keywords: children, fasting blood glucose, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, index, insulin, metabolic syndrome, morbid obesity, triglycerides.

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

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Authors: Deepti Kohli, Meeta Keswani Mehra

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The paper develops a theoretical model of electoral competition with purely opportunistic candidates and a uni-dimensional policy using the probability voting approach while focusing on the aspect of lobby formation to analyze the inherent complex interactions between centripetal and centrifugal forces and their effects on equilibrium policy platforms. There exist three types of agents, namely, Left-wing, Moderate and Right-wing who comprise of the total voting population. Also, it is assumed that the Left and Right agents are free to initiate a lobby of their choice. If initiated, these lobbies generate donations which in turn can be contributed to one (or both) electoral candidates in order to influence them to implement the lobby’s preferred policy. Four different lobby formation scenarios have been considered: no lobby formation, only Left, only Right and both Left and Right. The equilibrium policy platforms, amount of individual donations by agents to their respective lobbies and the contributions offered to the electoral candidates have been solved for under each of the above four cases. Since it is assumed that the agents cannot coordinate each other’s actions during the lobby formation stage, there exists a probability with which a lobby would be formed, which is also solved for in the model. The results indicate that the policy platforms of the two electoral candidates converge completely under the cases of no lobby and both (extreme) formations but diverge under the cases of only one (Left or Right) lobby formation. This is because in the case of no lobby being formed, only the centripetal forces (emerging from the election-winning aspect) are present while in the case of both extreme (Left-wing and Right-wing) lobbies being formed, centrifugal forces (emerging from the lobby formation aspect) also arise but cancel each other out, again resulting in a pure policy convergence phenomenon. In contrast, in case of only one lobby being formed, both centripetal and centrifugal forces interact strategically, leading the two electoral candidates to choose completely different policy platforms in equilibrium. Additionally, it is found that in equilibrium, while the donation by a specific agent type increases with the formation of both lobbies in comparison to when only one lobby is formed, the probability of implementation of the policy being advocated by that lobby group falls.

Keywords: electoral competition, equilibrium policy platforms, lobby formation, opportunistic candidates

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Authors: J. L. Chukwuneke, C. H. Achebe, S. N. Omenyi

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This research work presents the surface thermodynamics approach to M-TB/HIV-Human sputum interactions. This involved the use of the Hamaker coefficient concept as a surface energetics tool in determining the interaction processes, with the surface interfacial energies explained using van der Waals concept of particle interactions. The Lifshitz derivation for van der Waals forces was applied as an alternative to the contact angle approach which has been widely used in other biological systems. The methodology involved taking sputum samples from twenty infected persons and from twenty uninfected persons for absorbance measurement using a digital Ultraviolet visible Spectrophotometer. The variables required for the computations with the Lifshitz formula were derived from the absorbance data. The Matlab software tools were used in the mathematical analysis of the data produced from the experiments (absorbance values). The Hamaker constants and the combined Hamaker coefficients were obtained using the values of the dielectric constant together with the Lifshitz equation. The absolute combined Hamaker coefficients A132abs and A131abs on both infected and uninfected sputum samples gave the values of A132abs = 0.21631x10-21Joule for M-TB infected sputum and Ã132abs = 0.18825x10-21Joule for M-TB/HIV infected sputum. The significance of this result is the positive value of the absolute combined Hamaker coefficient which suggests the existence of net positive van der waals forces demonstrating an attraction between the bacteria and the macrophage. This however, implies that infection can occur. It was also shown that in the presence of HIV, the interaction energy is reduced by 13% conforming adverse effects observed in HIV patients suffering from tuberculosis.

Keywords: absorbance, dielectric constant, hamaker coefficient, lifshitz formula, macrophage, mycobacterium tuberculosis, van der waals forces

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Authors: Ghada A. Abdelbary, Maha M. Amin, Mostafa Abdelmoteleb

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Zaleplon (ZP) is a non-benzodiazepine poorly soluble hypnotic drug indicated for the short term treatment of insomnia having a bioavailability of about 30%. The aim of the present study is to enhance the solubility and consequently the bioavailability of ZP using hydrotropic agents (HA). Phase solubility diagrams of ZP in presence of different molar concentrations of HA (Sodium benzoate, Urea, Ascorbic acid, Resorcinol, Nicotinamide, and Piperazine) were constructed. ZP/Sodium benzoate and Resorcinol microparticles were prepared adopting melt, solvent evaporation and melt-evaporation techniques followed by XRD. Directly compressed mixed hydrotropic ZP tablets of Sodium benzoate and Resorcinol in different weight ratios were prepared and evaluated compared to the commercially available tablets (Sleep aid® 5 mg). The effect of shelf and accelerated stability storage (40°C ± 2°C/75%RH ± 5%RH) on the optimum tablet formula (F5) for six months were studied. The enhancement of ZP solubility follows the order of: Resorcinol > Sodium benzoate > Ascorbic acid > Piperazine > Urea > Nicotinamide with about 350 and 2000 fold increase using 1M of Sodium benzoate and Resorcinol respectively. ZP/HA microparticles exhibit the order of: Solvent evaporation > melt-solvent evaporation > melt > physical mixture which was further confirmed by the complete conversion of ZP into amorphous form. Mixed hydrotropic tablet formula (F5) composed of ZP/(Resorcinol: Sodium benzoate 4:1w/w) microparticles prepared by solvent evaporation exhibits in-vitro dissolution of 31.7±0.11% after five minutes (Q5min) compared to 10.0±0.10% for Sleep aid® (5 mg) respectively. F5 showed significantly higher GABA concentration of 122.5±5.5mg/mL in plasma compared to 118±1.00 and 27.8±1.5 mg/mL in case of Sleep aid® (5 mg) and control taking only saline respectively suggesting a higher neuropharmacological effect of ZP following hydrotropic solubilization.

Keywords: zaleplon, hydrotropic solubilization, plasma GABA level, mixed hydrotropy

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Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Erindi Allaj

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This paper studies arbitrage pricing theory in financial markets with transaction costs. We extend the existing theory to include the more realistic possibility that the price at which the investors trade is dependent on the traded volume. The investors in the market always buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Transaction costs are composed of two terms, one is able to capture the implicit transaction costs and the other the price impact. Moreover, a new definition of a self-financing portfolio is obtained. The self-financing condition suggests that continuous trading is possible, but is restricted to predictable trading strategies which have left and right limit and finite quadratic variation. That is, predictable trading strategies of infinite variation and of finite quadratic variation are allowed in our setting. Within this framework, the existence of an equivalent probability measure is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage opportunities, so that the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FFTAP) holds. It is also proved that, when this probability measure is unique, any contingent claim in the market is hedgeable in an L2-sense. The price of any contingent claim is equal to the risk-neutral price. To better understand how to apply the theory proposed we provide an example with linear transaction costs.

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory,
transaction costs, fundamental theorems of arbitrage, financial markets

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN Tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, rainfall

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Authors: Sai Sudarshan, Harsh Vyas, Riddhiman Sherlekar

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The oil and gas industry has been unwilling to adopt stochastic definition of reserves. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation methods have gained acceptance by engineers, geoscientists and other professionals who want to evaluate prospects or otherwise analyze problems that involve uncertainty. One of the common applications of Monte Carlo simulation is the estimation of recoverable hydrocarbon from a reservoir.Monte Carlo Simulation makes use of random samples of parameters or inputs to explore the behavior of a complex system or process. It finds application whenever one needs to make an estimate, forecast or decision where there is significant uncertainty. First, the project focuses on performing Monte-Carlo Simulation on a given data set using U. S Department of Energy’s MonteCarlo Software, which is a freeware e&p tool. Further, an algorithm for simulation has been developed for MATLAB and program performs simulation by prompting user for input distributions and parameters associated with each distribution (i.e. mean, st.dev, min., max., most likely, etc.). It also prompts user for desired probability for which reserves are to be calculated. The algorithm so developed and tested in MATLAB further finds implementation in Python where existing libraries on statistics and graph plotting have been imported to generate better outcome. With PyQt designer, codes for a simple graphical user interface have also been written. The graph so plotted is then validated with already available results from U.S DOE MonteCarlo Software.

Keywords: simulation, probability, confidence interval, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Ratu Khabiba, Qisha Quarina

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This study aims to analyse the effect of married couples’ assortative educational attainments on the division of economic activities among themselves in the household. This study contributes to the literature on women’s participation in employment, especially among married women, to see whether the traditional values about gender roles in the household still continue to shape the employment participation among married women in Indonesia, despite increasing women’s human capital through education. This study utilizes the Indonesian National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) 2016 and estimates the results using the multinomial logit model. Our results show that compared to high-educated educational homogamy couples, educational heterogamy couples, especially hypergamy, have a higher probability of being a single-worker type. Moreover, the high-educated educational homogamy couples have the highest probability of being a dual-worker type. Thus, we found evidence that the traditional values of gender role segregation seem to still play a significant role in married women’s employment decision in Indonesia, particularly for couples’ with educational heterogamy and low-educated educational homogamy couples.

Keywords: assortative education, dual-worker, hypergamy, homogamy, traditional values, women labor participation

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Authors: Boumesbah Asma, Chergui Mohamed El-amine

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Since it has been shown that the multi-objective minimum spanning tree problem (MOST) is NP-hard even with two criteria, we propose in this study a hybrid NSGA-II algorithm with an exact mutation operator, which is only used with low probability, to find an approximation to the Pareto front of the problem. In a connected graph G, a spanning tree T of G being a connected and cycle-free graph, if k edges of G\T are added to T, we obtain a partial graph H of G inducing a reduced size multi-objective spanning tree problem compared to the initial one. With a weak probability for the mutation operator, an exact method for solving the reduced MOST problem considering the graph H is then used to give birth to several mutated solutions from a spanning tree T. Then, the selection operator of NSGA-II is activated to obtain the Pareto front approximation. Finally, an adaptation of the VNS metaheuristic is called for further improvements on this front. It allows finding good individuals to counterbalance the diversification and the intensification during the optimization search process. Experimental comparison studies with an exact method show promising results and indicate that the proposed algorithm is efficient.

Keywords: minimum spanning tree, multiple objective linear optimization, combinatorial optimization, non-sorting genetic algorithm, variable neighborhood search

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Authors: Urvee B. Trivedi, U. D. Dalal

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As wireless communication services grow quickly; the seriousness of spectrum utilization has been on the rise gradually. An emerging technology, cognitive radio has come out to solve today’s spectrum scarcity problem. To support the spectrum reuse functionality, secondary users are required to sense the radio frequency environment, and once the primary users are found to be active, the secondary users are required to vacate the channel within a certain amount of time. Therefore, spectrum sensing is of significant importance. Once sensing is done, different prediction rules apply to classify the traffic pattern of primary user. Primary user follows two types of traffic patterns: periodic and stochastic ON-OFF patterns. A cognitive radio can learn the patterns in different channels over time. Two types of classification methods are discussed in this paper, by considering edge detection and by using autocorrelation function. Edge detection method has a high accuracy but it cannot tolerate sensing errors. Autocorrelation-based classification is applicable in the real environment as it can tolerate some amount of sensing errors.

Keywords: cognitive radio (CR), probability of detection (PD), probability of false alarm (PF), primary user (PU), secondary user (SU), fast Fourier transform (FFT), signal to noise ratio (SNR)

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Authors: J. Jarolímek, P. Urban, P. Pavlínek, D. Dzúrová

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The industry constitutes a dominant economic sector in Czechia. The automotive industry represents the most important industrial sector in terms of gross value added and the number of employees. The objective of this study was to analyse the occurrence of occupational diseases (OD) in the automotive industry in Czechia during the 2001-2014 period. Whereas the occurrence of OD in other sectors has generally been decreasing, it has been increasing in the automotive industry, including growing spatial discrepancies. Data on OD cases were retrieved from the National Registry of Occupational Diseases. Further, we conducted a survey in automotive companies with a focus on occupational health services and positions of the companies in global production networks (GPNs). An analysis of OD distribution in the automotive industry was performed (age, gender, company size and its role in GPNs, regional distribution of studied companies, and regional unemployment rate), and was accompanied by an assessment of the quality and range of occupational health services. The employees older than 40 years had nearly 2.5 times higher probability of OD occurrence compared with employees younger than 40 years (OR 2.41; 95% CI: 2.05-2.85). The OD occurrence probability was 3 times higher for women than for men (OR 3.01; 95 % CI: 2.55-3.55). The OD incidence rate was increasing with the size of the company. An association between the OD incidence and the unemployment rate was not confirmed.

Keywords: occupational diseases, automotive industry, health geography, unemployment

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Authors: Syahrul Bariah Abdul Hamid, Colin W. Binns, Jun Hui Chih

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The total of obese mothers is growing throughout Asia. Breastfeeding provides the perfect nutrition for infants, by promoting a higher IQ and protecting against childhood and adult diseases. A prospective cohort study was carried out of mothers attending eight antenatal clinics run by the Ministry of Health in Selangor, Malaysia to document the prevalence of obesity and its relationship with breastfeeding outcomes. Mothers were enrolled during the antenatal period and followed up until 6 months postpartum to document breastfeeding outcomes. A total of 652 Malay mothers were recruited for the study a response rate of 93.1 %. The pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) of the mothers showed that 36.5% of the mothers were overweight or obese. There were a total of 78 obese mothers in the sample and 41 (52.6%) of these mothers were able to initiate breastfeeding within one hour of birth compared to 238/337 (70.6 %, χ² 9.35, p<0.001) of those with a normal BMI. At 6 months, 23.1 % of obese mothers were exclusively breastfeeding their infants, compared to 56.0 % of the normal BMI mothers. On the other hand, the rate of infant formula feeding was higher in the obese mothers by 53.8 % compared to 19.0 % among normal weight mothers, χ² 37.6, p<0.001). Further analysis suggested these factors were found to be positively associated with discontinued exclusive breastfeeding at 6 months among obese mothers; mothers whom delayed breastfeeding initiation, had health problems during pregnancy, caesarean delivery, reported had insufficient colostrum/milk and babies had sucking problems at or before 4 weeks. Besides that, mothers who perceived their biological mothers had preference towards formula feeding or were ambivalent about the feeding method and had biological mothers without experience in breastfeeding for more than 1 month also were more likely to discontinue exclusive breastfeeding at 6 months. These findings suggested that the greater the pre-pregnant BMI, the earlier the cessation of exclusive breastfeeding and they were also less likely to initiate breastfeeding and have less adequate milk supply. Future investigations of the effects of maternal obesity on breastfeeding outcomes should be conducted along with effective interventions to advance the care of obese women at reproductive age and their children.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, body mass index (BMI), breastfeeding discontinuation, maternal obesity

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Authors: Tamer M. Shehata

Abstract:

Objective: Currently, mucoadhesive microparticles acquired a high interest in both research and pharmaceutical technology fields. Recently, BÜCHI lunched its latest fourth generation nano spray dryer B-90 used for nanoparticle production. B-90 offers an elegant technology combined particle engineering and drying in one step. In our laboratory, we successfully developed a new formulation for metformin hydrochloride, mucoadhesive microparticles utilizing B-90 technology for treatment of type 2-diabetis. Method: Gelatin or sodium alginate, natural occurring polymers with mucoadhesive properties, solely or in combination was used in our formulation trials. Preformulation studies (atomization head mesh size, flow rate, head temperature, polymer solution viscosity and surface tension) and postformulation characters (particle size, flowability, surface scan and dissolution profile) were evaluated. Finally, hypoglycemic effect of the selected formula was evaluated in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats. Spray head with 7 µm hole, flow rate of 3.5 mL/min and head temperature 120 ºC were selected. Polymer viscosity was less than 11.5 cP with surface tension less than 70.1 dyne/cm. Result: Discrete, non aggregated particles and free flowing powders with particle size was less than 2000 nm were obtained. Gelatin and sodium alginate combination in ratio 1:3 were successfully sustained the in vitro release profile of the drug. Hypoglycemic evaluation of the previous formula, showed a significant reduction of blood glucose level over 24 h. Conclusion: B-90 technology can open a new era of , mucoadhesive microparticles preparation offering convenient dosage form that can enhance compliance of type 2 diabetic patients.

Keywords: mucoadhesive, microparticles, technology, diabetis

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Authors: Chaitanya H. Acharya, Pavan Kumar P., Gopalakrishna Narayana

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In the realm of aerodynamics, numerous vehicles incorporate moving components to enhance their performance. For instance, airliners deploy hydraulically operated flaps and ailerons during take-off and landing, while Formula 1 racing cars utilize hydraulic tubes and actuators for various components, including the Drag Reduction System (DRS). The DRS, consisting of a rear wing and adjustable flaps, plays a crucial role in overtaking manoeuvres. The DRS has two positions: the default position with the flaps down, providing high downforce, and the lifted position, which reduces drag, allowing for increased speed and aiding in overtaking. Swift deployment of the DRS during races is essential for overtaking competitors. The fluid flow over the rear wing flap becomes intricate during deployment, involving flow reversal and operational changes, leading to unsteady flow physics that significantly influence aerodynamic characteristics. Understanding the drag and downforce during DRS deployment is crucial for determining race outcomes. While experiments can yield accurate aerodynamic data, they can be expensive and challenging to conduct across varying speeds. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) emerges as a cost-effective solution to predict drag and downforce across a range of speeds, especially with the rapid deployment of the DRS. This study employs the finite volume-based solver Ansys Fluent, incorporating dynamic mesh motions and a turbulent model to capture the complex flow phenomena associated with the moving rear wing flap. A dedicated section for the rare wing-flap is considered in the present simulations, and the aerodynamics of these sections closely resemble S1223 aerofoils. Before delving into the simulations of the rare wing-flap aerofoil, numerical results undergo validation using experimental data from an NLR flap aerofoil case, encompassing different flap angles at two distinct angles of attack was carried out. The increase in flap angle as increase in lift and drag is observed for a given angle of attack. The simulation methodology for the rare-wing-flap aerofoil case involves specific time durations before lifting the flap. During this period, drag and downforce values are determined as 330 N and 1800N, respectively. Following the flap lift, a noteworthy reduction in drag to 55 % and a decrease in downforce to 17 % are observed. This understanding is critical for making instantaneous decisions regarding the deployment of the Drag Reduction System (DRS) at specific speeds, thereby influencing the overall performance of the Formula 1 racing car. Hence, this work emphasizes the utilization of dynamic mesh motion methodology to predict the aerodynamic characteristics during the deployment of the DRS in a Formula 1 racing car.

Keywords: DRS, CFD, drag, downforce, dynamics mesh motion

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