Search results for: probabilistic and deterministic

Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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The present study compares the semi-empirical wake-oscillator models that are used to predict vortex-induced vibration of structures. These models include those proposed by Facchinetti, Farshidian, and Dolatabadi, and Skop and Griffin. These models combine a wake oscillator model resembling the Van der Pol oscillator model and a single degree of freedom oscillation model. In order to use these models for estimating the top displacement of chimneys, the first mode vibration of the chimneys is only considered. The modal equation of the chimney constitutes the single degree of freedom model (SDOF). The equations of the wake oscillator model and the SDOF are simultaneously solved using an iterative procedure. The empirical parameters used in the wake-oscillator models are estimated using a newly developed approach, and response is compared with experimental data, which appeared comparable. For carrying out the iterative solution, the ode solver of MATLAB is used. To carry out the comparative study, a tall concrete chimney of height 210m has been chosen with the base diameter as 28m, top diameter as 20m, and thickness as 0.3m. The responses of the chimney are also determined using the linear model proposed by E. Simiu and the deterministic model given in Eurocode. It is observed from the comparative study that the responses predicted by the Facchinetti model and the model proposed by Skop and Griffin are nearly the same, while the model proposed by Fashidian and Dolatabadi predicts a higher response. The linear model without considering the aero-elastic phenomenon provides a less response as compared to the non-linear models. Further, for large damping, the prediction of the response by the Euro code is relatively well compared to those of non-linear models.

Keywords: chimney, deterministic model, van der pol, vortex-induced vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Gregory Michael McMahon

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Risk management for the purposes of minimizing the damages from the operations of dams has met with opposition emerging from organisations and authorities, and their practitioners. It appears that the cause may be a misunderstanding of risk management arising from exchanges that mix deterministic thinking with risk-centric thinking and that do not separate uncertainty from reliability and accuracy from probability. This paper sets out those misunderstandings that arose from dam operations at Wivenhoe in 2011, using a comparison of outcomes that have been based on the methodology and its rules and those that have been operated by applying misunderstandings of the rules. The paper addresses the performance of one risk-centric Flood Manual for Wivenhoe Dam in achieving a risk management outcome. A mixture of engineering, administrative, and legal factors appear to have combined to reduce the outcomes from the risk approach. These are described. The findings are that a risk-centric Manual may need to assist administrations in the conduct of scenario training regimes, in responding to healthy audit reporting, and in the development of decision-support systems. The principal assistance needed from the Manual, however, is to assist engineering and the law to a good understanding of how risks are managed – do not assume that risk management is understood. The wider findings are that the critical profession for decision-making downstream of the meteorologist is not dam engineering or hydrology, or hydraulics; it is risk management. Risk management will provide the minimum flood damage outcome where actual rainfalls match or exceed forecasts of rainfalls, that therefore risk management will provide the best approach for the likely history of flooding in the life of a dam, and provisions made for worst cases may be state of the art in risk management. The principal conclusion is the need for training in both risk management as a discipline and also in the application of risk management rules to particular dam operational scenarios.

Keywords: risk management, flood control, dam operations, deterministic thinking

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Guang Zou, Kian Banisoleiman, Arturo González

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Crack initiation and propagation threatens structural integrity of welded joints and normally inspections are assigned based on crack propagation models. However, the approach based on crack propagation models may not be applicable for some high-quality welded joints, because the initial flaws in them may be so small that it may take long time for the flaws to develop into a detectable size. This raises a concern regarding the inspection planning of high-quality welded joins, as there is no generally acceptable approach for modeling the whole fatigue process that includes the crack initiation period. In order to address the issue, this paper reviews treatment methods for crack initiation period and initial crack size in crack propagation models applied to inspection planning. Generally, there are four approaches, by: 1) Neglecting the crack initiation period and fitting a probabilistic distribution for initial crack size based on statistical data; 2) Extrapolating the crack propagation stage to a very small fictitious initial crack size, so that the whole fatigue process can be modeled by crack propagation models; 3) Assuming a fixed detectable initial crack size and fitting a probabilistic distribution for crack initiation time based on specimen tests; and, 4) Modeling the crack initiation and propagation stage separately using small crack growth theories and Paris law or similar models. The conclusion is that in view of trade-off between accuracy and computation efforts, calibration of a small fictitious initial crack size to S-N curves is the most efficient approach.

Keywords: crack initiation, fatigue reliability, inspection planning, welded joints

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: H. M. Soroush

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The problem of scheduling products and services for on-time deliveries is of paramount importance in today’s competitive environments. It arises in many manufacturing and service organizations where it is desirable to complete jobs (products or services) with different weights (penalties) on or before their due dates. In such environments, schedules should frequently decide whether to schedule a job based on its processing time, due-date, and the penalty for tardy delivery to improve the system performance. For example, it is common to measure the weighted number of late jobs or the percentage of on-time shipments to evaluate the performance of a semiconductor production facility or an automobile assembly line. In this paper, we address the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a server where processing times or due-dates of jobs are random variables and fixed weights (penalties) are imposed on the jobs’ late deliveries. The goal is to find the schedule that minimizes the expected weighted number of tardy jobs. The problem is NP-hard to solve; however, we explore three scenarios of the problem wherein: (i) both processing times and due-dates are stochastic; (ii) processing times are stochastic and due-dates are deterministic; and (iii) processing times are deterministic and due-dates are stochastic. We prove that special cases of these scenarios are solvable optimally in polynomial time, and introduce efficient heuristic methods for the general cases. Our computational results show that the heuristics perform well in yielding either optimal or near optimal sequences. The results also demonstrate that the stochasticity of processing times or due-dates can affect scheduling decisions. Moreover, the proposed problem is general in the sense that its special cases reduce to some new and some classical stochastic single machine models.

Keywords: number of late jobs, scheduling, single server, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 461

Authors: Meng Su

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High-dimensional data analysis often presents challenges in capturing the complex, nonlinear relationships and manifold structures inherent to the data. This article presents a novel approach that leverages the strengths of two powerful techniques, Diffusion Maps and Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs), to address these challenges. By integrating the dimensionality reduction capability of Diffusion Maps with the data modeling ability of DPMs, the proposed method aims to provide a comprehensive solution for analyzing and generating high-dimensional data. The Diffusion Map technique preserves the nonlinear relationships and manifold structure of the data by mapping it to a lower-dimensional space using the eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian matrix. Meanwhile, DPMs capture the dependencies within the data, enabling effective modeling and generation of new data points in the low-dimensional space. The generated data points can then be mapped back to the original high-dimensional space, ensuring consistency with the underlying manifold structure. Through a detailed example implementation, the article demonstrates the potential of the proposed hybrid approach to achieve more accurate and effective modeling and generation of complex, high-dimensional data. Furthermore, it discusses possible applications in various domains, such as image synthesis, time-series forecasting, and anomaly detection, and outlines future research directions for enhancing the scalability, performance, and integration with other machine learning techniques. By combining the strengths of Diffusion Maps and DPMs, this work paves the way for more advanced and robust data analysis methods.

Keywords: diffusion maps, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs), manifold learning, high-dimensional data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

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The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

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Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include such as the cost of infrastructure, personnel and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. More research has been done to identify the various factors that affect road accidents, such as road infrastructure, traffic, sociodemographic characteristics, land use, and the environment. The aim of this research is to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using machine learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons like overspeeding etc., in the United States. These factors range from weather factors, like weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity to human made structures like road structure factors like bump, roundabout, no exit, turning loop, give away, etc. Probabilities are dissected into ten different classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes that happened in all states collected by the US government. To calculate the probability, multinomial expected value was used and assigned a classification label as the crash probability. We applied three different classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-deep insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: D. Calogine, O. Chau, S. Dotti, O. Ramiarinjanahary, P. Rasoavonjy, F. Tovondahiniriko

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Mafate is a natural circus in the north-western part of Reunion Island, without an electrical grid and road network. A micro-grid concept is being experimented in this area, composed of a photovoltaic production combined with electrochemical batteries, in order to meet the local population for self-consumption of electricity demands. This work develops a discrete model as well as a stochastic model in order to reach an optimal equilibrium between production and consumptions for a cluster of houses. The management of the energy power leads to a large linearized programming system, where the time interval of interest is 24 hours The experimental data are solar production, storage energy, and the parameters of the different electrical devices and batteries. The unknown variables to evaluate are the consumptions of the various electrical services, the energy drawn from and stored in the batteries, and the inhabitants’ planning wishes. The objective is to fit the solar production to the electrical consumption of the inhabitants, with an optimal use of the energies in the batteries by satisfying as widely as possible the users' planning requirements. In the discrete model, the different parameters and solutions of the linear programming system are deterministic scalars. Whereas in the stochastic approach, the data parameters and the linear programming solutions become random variables, then the distributions of which could be imposed or established by estimation from samples of real observations or from samples of optimal discrete equilibrium solutions.

Keywords: photovoltaic production, power consumption, battery storage resources, random variables, stochastic modeling, estimations of probability distributions, mixed integer linear programming, smart micro-grid, self-consumption of electricity.

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Manel Langar, Riad Bourguiba, Jaouhar Mouine

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In this paper, we propose the design and implementation of an enhanced wormhole virtual channel on chip router. It is a heart of a mesh NoC using the XY deterministic routing algorithm. It is characterized by its simple virtual channel allocation strategy which allows reducing area and complexity of connections without affecting the performance. We implemented our router on a Tezzaron process to validate its performances. This router is a basic element that will be used later to design a 3D mesh NoC.

Keywords: NoC, mesh, router, 3D NoC

Procedia PDF Downloads 535

Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Aude Gounelle, Gloria Senfaute, Ludivine Saint-Mard, Thomas Chartier

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The long-term deformation rates of faults are not fully captured by Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). PSHA that use catalogues to develop area or smoothed-seismicity sources is limited by the data available to constraint future earthquakes activity rates. The integration of faults in PSHA can at least partially address the long-term deformation. However, careful treatment of fault sources is required, particularly, in low strain rate regions, where estimated seismic hazard levels are highly sensitive to assumptions concerning fault geometry, segmentation and slip rate. When integrating faults in PSHA various constraints on earthquake rates from geologic and seismologic data have to be satisfied. For low strain rate regions where such data is scarce it would be especially challenging. Faults in PSHA requires conversion of the geologic and seismologic data into fault geometries, slip rates and then into earthquake activity rates. Several approaches exist for translating slip rates into earthquake activity rates. In the most frequently used approach, the background earthquakes are handled using a truncated approach, in which earthquakes with a magnitude lower or equal to a threshold magnitude (Mw) occur in the background zone, with a rate defined by the rate in the earthquake catalogue. Although magnitudes higher than the threshold are located on the fault with a rate defined using the average slip rate of the fault. As high-lighted by several research, seismic events with magnitudes stronger than the selected magnitude threshold may potentially occur in the background and not only at the fault, especially in regions of slow tectonic deformation. It also has been known that several sections of a fault or several faults could rupture during a single fault-to-fault rupture. It is then essential to apply a consistent modelling procedure to allow for a large set of possible fault-to-fault ruptures to occur aleatory in the hazard model while reflecting the individual slip rate of each section of the fault. In 2019, a tool named SHERIFS (Seismic Hazard and Earthquake Rates in Fault Systems) was published. The tool is using a methodology to calculate the earthquake rates in a fault system where the slip-rate budget of each fault is conversed into rupture rates for all possible single faults and faultto-fault ruptures. The objective of this paper is to compare the SHERIFS method with one other frequently used model to analyse the impact on the seismic hazard and through sensibility studies better understand the influence of key parameters and assumptions. For this application, a simplified but realistic case study was selected, which is in an area of moderate to hight seismicity (South Est of France) and where the fault is supposed to have a low strain.

Keywords: deformation rates, faults, probabilistic seismic hazard, PSHA

Procedia PDF Downloads 31

Authors: Ali Abdul Kadhim, Fue Lien

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Solid particle distribution on an impingement surface has been simulated utilizing a graphical processing unit (GPU). In-house computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code has been developed to investigate a 3D turbulent impinging jet using the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) in conjunction with large eddy simulation (LES) and the multiple relaxation time (MRT) models. This paper proposed an improvement in the LBM-cellular automata (LBM-CA) probabilistic method. In the current model, the fluid flow utilizes the D3Q19 lattice, while the particle model employs the D3Q27 lattice. The particle numbers are defined at the same regular LBM nodes, and transport of particles from one node to its neighboring nodes are determined in accordance with the particle bulk density and velocity by considering all the external forces. The previous models distribute particles at each time step without considering the local velocity and the number of particles at each node. The present model overcomes the deficiencies of the previous LBM-CA models and, therefore, can better capture the dynamic interaction between particles and the surrounding turbulent flow field. Despite the increasing popularity of LBM-MRT-CA model in simulating complex multiphase fluid flows, this approach is still expensive in term of memory size and computational time required to perform 3D simulations. To improve the throughput of each simulation, a single GeForce GTX TITAN X GPU is used in the present work. The CUDA parallel programming platform and the CuRAND library are utilized to form an efficient LBM-CA algorithm. The methodology was first validated against a benchmark test case involving particle deposition on a square cylinder confined in a duct. The flow was unsteady and laminar at Re=200 (Re is the Reynolds number), and simulations were conducted for different Stokes numbers. The present LBM solutions agree well with other results available in the open literature. The GPU code was then used to simulate the particle transport and deposition in a turbulent impinging jet at Re=10,000. The simulations were conducted for L/D=2,4 and 6, where L is the nozzle-to-surface distance and D is the jet diameter. The effect of changing the Stokes number on the particle deposition profile was studied at different L/D ratios. For comparative studies, another in-house serial CPU code was also developed, coupling LBM with the classical Lagrangian particle dispersion model. Agreement between results obtained with LBM-CA and LBM-Lagrangian models and the experimental data is generally good. The present GPU approach achieves a speedup ratio of about 350 against the serial code running on a single CPU.

Keywords: CUDA, GPU parallel programming, LES, lattice Boltzmann method, MRT, multi-phase flow, probabilistic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Ming Liu, Zhihui Sun, Xiaoning Zhang

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This paper studies a deterministic container transportation problem, jointly optimizing the berth allocation, quay crane assignment and yard storage allocation at container ports. The problem is formulated as an integer program to coordinate the decisions. Because of the large scale, it is then transformed into a set partitioning formulation, and a framework of branchand- price algorithm is provided to solve it.

Keywords: branch-and-price, container terminal, joint scheduling, maritime logistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: A. Sohouli, A. Suleman

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This study focuses on reliability analysis of variable stiffness composite laminate structures to investigate the potential structural improvement compared to conventional (straight fibers) composite laminate structures. A computational framework was developed which it consists of a deterministic design step and reliability analysis. The optimization part is Discrete Material Optimization (DMO) and the reliability of the structure is computed by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) after using Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM). The design driver in deterministic optimization is the maximum stiffness, while optimization method concerns certain manufacturing constraints to attain industrial relevance. These manufacturing constraints are the change of orientation between adjacent patches cannot be too large and the maximum number of successive plies of a particular fiber orientation should not be too high. Variable stiffness composites may be manufactured by Automated Fiber Machines (AFP) which provides consistent quality with good production rates. However, laps and gaps are the most important challenges to steer fibers that effect on the performance of the structures. In this study, the optimal curved fiber paths at each layer of composites are designed in the first step by DMO, and then the reliability analysis is applied to investigate the sensitivity of the structure with different standard deviations compared to the straight fiber angle composites. The random variables are material properties and loads on the structures. The results show that the variable stiffness composite laminate structures are much more reliable, even for high standard deviation of material properties, than the conventional composite laminate structures. The reason is that the variable stiffness composite laminates allow tailoring stiffness and provide the possibility of adjusting stress and strain distribution favorably in the structures.

Keywords: material optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability analysis, response surface method, variable stiffness composite structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Sergo Esadze

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Seismic resistance norms require calculation of cantilevers on vertical components of the base seismic acceleration. Long span cantilevers, as a rule, must be calculated as a separate construction element. According to the architectural-planning solution, functional purposes and environmental condition of a designing buildings/structures, long span cantilever construction may be of very different types: both by main bearing element (beam, truss, slab), and by material (reinforced concrete, steel). A choice from these is always linked with bearing construction system of the building. Research of vertical seismic vibration of these constructions requires individual approach for each (which is not specified in the norms) in correlation with model of seismic load. The latest may be given both as deterministic load and as a random process. Loading model as a random process is more adequate to this problem. In presented paper, two types of long span (from 6m – up to 12m) reinforcement concrete cantilever beams have been considered: a) bearing elements of cantilevers, i.e., elements in which they fixed, have cross-sections with large sizes and cantilevers are made with haunch; b) cantilever beam with load-bearing rod element. Calculation models are suggested, separately for a) and b) types. They are presented as systems with finite quantity degree (concentrated masses) of freedom. Conditions for fixing ends are corresponding with its types. Vertical acceleration and vertical component of the angular acceleration affect masses. Model is based on assumption translator-rotational motion of the building in the vertical plane, caused by vertical seismic acceleration. Seismic accelerations are considered as random processes and presented by multiplication of the deterministic envelope function on stationary random process. Problem is solved within the framework of the correlation theory of random process. Solved numerical examples are given. The method is effective for solving the specific problems.

Keywords: cantilever, random process, seismic load, vertical acceleration

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, Yuji Yagi, Heba Kamal

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In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion methods and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20%) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels.

Keywords: MASW, seismic hazard, wind turbine towers, Zafarana wind farm

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Meziane Belkacem

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We aim at converting the original 3D Lorenz-Haken equations, which describe laser dynamics –in terms of self-pulsing and chaos- into 2-second-order differential equations, out of which we extract the so far missing mathematics and corroborations with respect to nonlinear interactions. Leaning on basic trigonometry, we pull out important outcomes; a fundamental result attributes chaos to forbidden periodic solutions inside some precisely delimited region of the control parameter space that governs the bewildering dynamics.

Keywords: Physics, optics, nonlinear dynamics, chaos

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Migena Mana, Ahmed Khalid Syed, Abdul Malik, Nikhil Cherian

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In recent years, advancements in deep learning enabled researchers to tackle the problem of self-driving cars. Car companies use huge datasets to train their deep learning models to make autonomous cars a reality. However, this approach has certain drawbacks in that the state space of possible actions for a car is so huge that there cannot be a dataset for every possible road scenario. To overcome this problem, the concept of reinforcement learning (RL) is being investigated in this research. Since the problem of autonomous driving can be modeled in a simulation, it lends itself naturally to the domain of reinforcement learning. The advantage of this approach is that we can model different and complex road scenarios in a simulation without having to deploy in the real world. The autonomous agent can learn to drive by finding the optimal policy. This learned model can then be easily deployed in a real-world setting. In this project, we focus on three RL algorithms: Q-learning, Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). To model the environment, we have used TORCS (The Open Racing Car Simulator), which provides us with a strong foundation to test our model. The inputs to the algorithms are the sensor data provided by the simulator such as velocity, distance from side pavement, etc. The outcome of this research project is a comparative analysis of these algorithms. Based on the comparison, the PPO algorithm gives the best results. When using PPO algorithm, the reward is greater, and the acceleration, steering angle and braking are more stable compared to the other algorithms, which means that the agent learns to drive in a better and more efficient way in this case. Additionally, we have come up with a dataset taken from the training of the agent with DDPG and PPO algorithms. It contains all the steps of the agent during one full training in the form: (all input values, acceleration, steering angle, break, loss, reward). This study can serve as a base for further complex road scenarios. Furthermore, it can be enlarged in the field of computer vision, using the images to find the best policy.

Keywords: autonomous driving, DDPG (deep deterministic policy gradient), PPO (proximal policy optimization), reinforcement learning

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Authors: Martha E. Aguiar-Barrera, Humberto Gutierrez-Pulido, Veronica Vargas-Alejo

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Identifying and modeling random phenomena is a fundamental cognitive process to understand and transform reality. Recognizing situations governed by chance and giving them a scientific interpretation, without being carried away by beliefs or intuitions, is a basic training for citizens. Hence the importance of generating teaching-learning processes, supported using technology, paying attention to model creation rather than only executing mathematical calculations. In order to develop the student's knowledge about basic probability distributions and decision making; in this work a model eliciting activity (MEA) is reported. The intention was applying the Model and Modeling Perspective to design an activity related to civil engineering that would be understandable for students, while involving them in its solution. Furthermore, the activity should imply a decision-making challenge based on sample data, and the use of the computer should be considered. The activity was designed considering the six design principles for MEA proposed by Lesh and collaborators. These are model construction, reality, self-evaluation, model documentation, shareable and reusable, and prototype. The application and refinement of the activity was carried out during three school cycles in the Probability and Statistics class for Civil Engineering students at the University of Guadalajara. The analysis of the way in which the students sought to solve the activity was made using audio and video recordings, as well as with the individual and team reports of the students. The information obtained was categorized according to the activity phase (individual or team) and the category of analysis (sample, linearity, probability, distributions, mechanization, and decision-making). With the results obtained through the MEA, four obstacles have been identified to understand and apply the binomial distribution: the first one was the resistance of the student to move from the linear to the probabilistic model; the second one, the difficulty of visualizing (infering) the behavior of the population through the sample data; the third one, viewing the sample as an isolated event and not as part of a random process that must be viewed in the context of a probability distribution; and the fourth one, the difficulty of decision-making with the support of probabilistic calculations. These obstacles have also been identified in literature on the teaching of probability and statistics. Recognizing these concepts as obstacles to understanding probability distributions, and that these do not change after an intervention, allows for the modification of these interventions and the MEA. In such a way, the students may identify themselves the erroneous solutions when they carrying out the MEA. The MEA also showed to be democratic since several students who had little participation and low grades in the first units, improved their participation. Regarding the use of the computer, the RStudio software was useful in several tasks, for example in such as plotting the probability distributions and to exploring different sample sizes. In conclusion, with the models created to solve the MEA, the Civil Engineering students improved their probabilistic knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts such as sample, population, and probability distribution.

Keywords: linear model, models and modeling, probability, randomness, sample

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Authors: A. Mohammadi, M. Moghimi, S. Mohammadi

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Engineers need computational methods which could provide solutions less sensitive to the environmental effects, so the techniques should be used which take the uncertainty to account to control and minimize the risk associated with design and operation. In order to consider uncertainty in engineering problem, the optimization problem should be solved for a suitable range of the each uncertain input variable instead of just one estimated point. Using deterministic optimization problem, a large computational burden is required to consider every possible and probable combination of uncertain input variables. Several methods have been reported in the literature to deal with problems under uncertainty. In this paper, different methods presented and analyzed.

Keywords: uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulated, stochastic programming, scenario method

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, combined approach, point estimate method, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Rachid Ziteuni, Selt Omar

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In this paper, we propose a new polynomial metaheuristic elaboration (tabu search) for solving scheduling problems. This method allows us to solve the scheduling problem of n tasks on m identical parallel machines with unavailability periods. This problem is NP-complete in the strong sens and finding an optimal solution appears unlikely. Note that all data in this problem are integer and deterministic. The performance criterion to optimize in this problem which we denote Pm/N-c/summs of (wjCj) is the weighted sum of the end dates of tasks.

Keywords: scheduling, parallel identical machines, unavailability periods, metaheuristic, tabu search

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Authors: Berkan Ural, Arif Eser, Sinan Apaydin

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Medical image processing is generally become a challenging task nowadays. Indeed, processing of brain MRI images is one of the difficult parts of this area. This study proposes a hybrid well-defined approach which is consisted from tumor detection, extraction and analyzing steps. This approach is mainly consisted from a computer aided diagnostics system for identifying and detecting the tumor formation in any region of the brain and this system is commonly used for early prediction of brain tumor using advanced image processing and probabilistic neural network methods, respectively. For this approach, generally, some advanced noise removal functions, image processing methods such as automatic segmentation and morphological operations are used to detect the brain tumor boundaries and to obtain the important feature parameters of the tumor region. All stages of the approach are done specifically with using MATLAB software. Generally, for this approach, firstly tumor is successfully detected and the tumor area is contoured with a specific colored circle by the computer aided diagnostics program. Then, the tumor is segmented and some morphological processes are achieved to increase the visibility of the tumor area. Moreover, while this process continues, the tumor area and important shape based features are also calculated. Finally, with using the probabilistic neural network method and with using some advanced classification steps, tumor area and the type of the tumor are clearly obtained. Also, the future aim of this study is to detect the severity of lesions through classes of brain tumor which is achieved through advanced multi classification and neural network stages and creating a user friendly environment using GUI in MATLAB. In the experimental part of the study, generally, 100 images are used to train the diagnostics system and 100 out of sample images are also used to test and to check the whole results. The preliminary results demonstrate the high classification accuracy for the neural network structure. Finally, according to the results, this situation also motivates us to extend this framework to detect and localize the tumors in the other organs.

Keywords: image processing algorithms, magnetic resonance imaging, neural network, pattern recognition

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Authors: Juan C. Sanchez, Jose L. Endrino, Alejandro Toro, Hugo A. Estupinan, Glenn Leighton

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For years, the reduction of friction and wear has been a matter of interest in the engineering field. Several solutions have been proposed to address this issue, including the use of lubricants and coatings to reduce the frictional forces and to increase the surface wear resistance. Alternatively, texturing processes have been used in a wide variety of materials, in many cases inspired in natural surfaces. Nature has shown how species adapt to the environment and the engineers try to understand natural surfaces for particular applications by analyzing outstanding species such as gecko for high adhesion, lotus leaves for hydrophobicity, sharks for reduced flow resistance and snakes for optimized frictional response. Texturized surfaces have shown a superior performance in terms of the frictional response in many situations, and the control of its behavior greatly depends on the manufacturing process. The focus of this work is to evaluate the tribological behavior of AISI 52100 steel samples texturized by Photochemical Machining (PCM). The surface texture was inspired by several features of the snakeskin such as aspect ratio of fibrils and mean fibril spacing. Two coatings were applied on the texturized surface, namely Diamond-like Carbon (DLC) and Molybdenum Disulphide (MoS₂), and their tribological behavior after pin-on-disk tests were compared with that of the non-texturized and uncovered surfaces. The samples were characterised through Stereoscopic Microscope (SM), Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), Optical Microscope (OM), Profilometer, Raman Spectrometer (RS) and X-Ray Diffractometer (XRD). The Coefficient of Friction (COF) measured in pin-on-disk tests showed correlations with the sliding direction (relative to the texture features) and the aspect ratio of the texture features. Regarding the coated surfaces, the DLC and MoS₂ coating had a good performance in terms of wear rate and coefficient of friction compared with the uncoated and non-texturized surfaces. On the other hand, for the uncoated surfaces, the texture showed an influence in the tribological performance with respect to the non-texturized surface.

Keywords: coating, coefficient of friction, deterministic surface, photochemical machining

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Authors: Arcady Ponosov., Ramazan Kadiev

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The work studies the global moment stability of solutions of systems of nonlinear differential Itô equations with delays. A modified regularization method (W-method) for the analysis of various types of stability of such systems, based on the choice of the auxiliaryequations and applications of the theory of positive invertible matrices, is proposed and justified. Development of this method for deterministic functional differential equations is due to N.V. Azbelev and his students. Sufficient conditions for the moment stability of solutions in terms of the coefficients for sufficiently general as well as specific classes of Itô equations are given.

Keywords: asymptotic stability, delay equations, operator methods, stochastic noise

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

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Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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