Search results for: predictive accuracy

Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Benbiao Song, Yan Gao, Zhuo Liu

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Geostatistical modeling is the key technic for reservoir characterization, the quality of geological models will influence the prediction of reservoir performance greatly, but few studies have been done to quantify the factors impacting geostatistical reservoir modeling accuracy. In this study, 16 fluvial prototype models have been established to represent different geological complexity, 6 cases range from 16 to 361 wells were defined to reproduce all those 16 prototype models by different methodologies including SIS, object-based and MPFS algorithms accompany with different constraint parameters. Modeling accuracy ratio was defined to quantify the influence of each factor, and ten realizations were averaged to represent each accuracy ratio under the same modeling condition and parameters association. Totally 5760 simulations were done to quantify the relative contribution of each factor to the simulation accuracy, and the results can be used as strategy guide for facies modeling in the similar condition. It is founded that data density, geological trend and geological complexity have great impact on modeling accuracy. Modeling accuracy may up to 90% when channel sand width reaches up to 1.5 times of well space under whatever condition by SIS and MPFS methods. When well density is low, the contribution of geological trend may increase the modeling accuracy from 40% to 70%, while the use of proper variogram may have very limited contribution for SIS method. It can be implied that when well data are dense enough to cover simple geobodies, few efforts were needed to construct an acceptable model, when geobodies are complex with insufficient data group, it is better to construct a set of robust geological trend than rely on a reliable variogram function. For object-based method, the modeling accuracy does not increase obviously as SIS method by the increase of data density, but kept rational appearance when data density is low. MPFS methods have the similar trend with SIS method, but the use of proper geological trend accompany with rational variogram may have better modeling accuracy than MPFS method. It implies that the geological modeling strategy for a real reservoir case needs to be optimized by evaluation of dataset, geological complexity, geological constraint information and the modeling objective.

Keywords: fluvial facies, geostatistics, geological trend, modeling strategy, modeling accuracy, variogram

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Authors: Jayant Kumar, Aarcha Jayachandran Sasikala, Barry Adrian Shepherd

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Public Distribution System is a flagship welfare programme of the Government of India with both historical and political significance. Targeted at lower sections of society,it is one of the largest supply chain networks in the world. There has been several studies by academics and planning commission about the effectiveness of the system. Our study focuses on applying predictive analytics to aid the central body to keep track of the problem of breach of service level agreement between the two echelons of food supply chain. Each shop breach is leading to a potential additional inventory carrying cost. Thus, through this study, we aim to show that aided with such analytics, the network can be made more cost effective. The methods we illustrate in this study are applicable to other commercial supply chains as well.

Keywords: PDS, analytics, cost effectiveness, Karnataka, inventory cost, service level JEL classification: C53

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgianna Duarte

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The social problems of early adolescents in Northeast China were examined with the instrument of Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA). In this study, the data consisted of 2532 early adolescents. The relevant variables such as sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends, as independent variables have been included in this study. The stratified sampling method was used to collect data from 2532 participants. The analysis results indicated that sports activities, hobbies, chores and the number of close friends, as predictors can be used in a predictive model, which significantly predict the social problem T-score.

Keywords: social problems, ASEBA, early adolescents, predictive Model

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Authors: Zhi Hao Chow, Cian Mulligan, Jack Walsh, Antonio Garzon Vico, Dimitar Krastev

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Drug development is resource-intensive, time-consuming, and increasingly expensive with each developmental stage. The success rates of drug development are also relatively low, and the resources committed are wasted with each failed candidate. As such, a reliable method of predicting the success of drug development is in demand. The hypothesis was that some examples of failed drug candidates are pushed through developmental pipelines based on false confidence and may possess common linguistic features identifiable through sentiment analysis. Here, the concept of using text analysis to discover such features in research publications and investor reports as predictors of success was explored. R studios were used to perform text mining and lexicon-based sentiment analysis to identify affective phrases and determine their frequency in each document, then using SPSS to determine the relationship between our defined variables and the accuracy of predicting outcomes. A total of 161 publications were collected and categorised into 4 groups: (i) Cancer treatment, (ii) Neurodegenerative disease treatment, (iii) Vaccines, and (iv) Others (containing all other drugs that do not fit into the 3 categories). Text analysis was then performed on each document using 2 separate datasets (BING and AFINN) in R within the category of drugs to determine the frequency of positive or negative phrases in each document. A relative positivity and negativity value were then calculated by dividing the frequency of phrases with the word count of each document. Regression analysis was then performed with SPSS statistical software on each dataset (values from using BING or AFINN dataset during text analysis) using a random selection of 61 documents to construct a model. The remaining documents were then used to determine the predictive power of the models. Model constructed from BING predicts the outcome of drug performance in clinical trials with an overall percentage of 65.3%. AFINN model had a lower accuracy at predicting outcomes compared to the BING model at 62.5% but was not effective at predicting the failure of drugs in clinical trials. Overall, the study did not show significant efficacy of the model at predicting outcomes of drugs in development. Many improvements may need to be made to later iterations of the model to sufficiently increase the accuracy.

Keywords: data analysis, drug development, sentiment analysis, text-mining

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Authors: Yifu Ding, Vijay Avinash, Malcolm McCulloch

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As the proliferation of decentralized energy systems, the UK power system allows small-scale entities such as microgrids (MGs) to tender multiple energy services including energy arbitrage and frequency responses (FRs). However, its operation requires the balance between the uncertain renewable generations and loads in real-time and has to fulfill their provision requirements of contract services continuously during the time window agreed, otherwise it will be penalized for the under-delivered provision. To hedge against risks due to uncertainties and maximize the economic benefits, we propose a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) framework to optimize its operation for the multi-service provision. Distinguished from previous works, we include a detailed economic-degradation model of the lithium-ion battery to quantify the costs of different service provisions, as well as accurately describe the changing dynamics of the battery. Considering a branch of load and generation scenarios and the battery aging, we formulate a risk-averse cost function using conditional value at risk (CVaR). It aims to achieve the maximum expected net revenue and avoids severe losses. The framework will be performed on a case study of a PV-battery grid-tied microgrid in the UK with real-life data. To highlight its performance, the framework will be compared with the case without the degradation model and the deterministic formulation.

Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), battery degradation, frequency response, microgrids

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Authors: Ayoub Moufid, Najib Bennis, Soumia El Hani

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The objective of greenhouse climate control is to improve the culture development and to minimize the production costs. A greenhouse is an open system to external environment and the challenge is to regulate the internal climate despite the strong meteorological disturbances. The internal state of greenhouse considered in this work is defined by too relevant and coupled variables, namely inside temperature and hygrometry. These two variables are chosen to describe the internal state of greenhouses due to their importance in the development of plants and their sensitivity to external climatic conditions, sources of weather disturbances. A multivariable model is proposed and validated by considering a greenhouse as black-box system and the least square method is applied to parameters identification basing on collected experimental measures. To regulate the internal climate, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme. This one considers the measured meteorological disturbances and the physical and operational constraints on the control and state variables. A successful feasibility study of the proposed controller is presented, and simulation results show good performances despite the high interaction between internal and external variables and the strong external meteorological disturbances. The inside temperature and hygrometry are tracking nearly the desired trajectories. A comparison study with an On/Off control applied to the same greenhouse confirms the efficiency of the MPC approach to inside climate control.

Keywords: climate control, constraints, identification, greenhouse, model predictive control, optimization

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Authors: Tania Vasquez Mata, Luis A. Herrera, Cristian Arriaga Canon

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Background: Locally advanced breast cancer of the luminal B phenotype, poses challenges due to its variable response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. A predictive biomarker is needed to identify patients who will not respond to treatment, allowing for alternative therapies. This study aims to validate the use of the lncRNA GATA3-AS1, as a predictive biomarker using RNA in situ hybridization. Research aim: The aim of this study is to determine if GATA3-AS1 can serve as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Methodology: The study utilizes RNA in situ hybridization with predesigned probes for GATA3-AS1 on Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embedded tissue sections. The samples underwent pretreatment and protease treatment to enable probe penetration. Chromogenic detection and signal evaluation were performed using specific criteria. Findings: Patients who did not respond to neoadjuvant chemotherapy showed a 3+ score for GATA3-AS1, while those who had a complete response had a 1+ score. Theoretical importance: This study demonstrates the potential clinical utility of GATA3-AS1 as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Identifying non-responders early on can help avoid unnecessary treatment and explore alternative therapy options. Data collection and analysis procedures: Tissue samples from patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer were collected and processed using RNA in situ hybridization. Signal evaluation was conducted under a microscope, and scoring was based on specific criteria. Questions addressed: Can GATA3-AS1 serve as a predictive biomarker for neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in locally advanced luminal B breast cancer? Conclusion: The lncRNA GATA3-AS1 can be used as a biomarker for resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced luminal B breast cancer. Its identification through RNA in situ hybridization of tissue obtained from the initial biopsy can aid in treatment decision-making.

Keywords: biomarkers, breast neoplasms, genetics, neoadjuvant therapy, tumor

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Authors: A. Karimzad Ghavidel, M. Zadshakouyan

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Laser cutting is a very common production method for cutting 2D polymeric parts. Developing of polymer composites with nano-fibers makes important their other properties like laser workability. The aim of this research is investigation of the influence different laser cutting conditions on the dimensional accuracy of parts and holes from poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA)/carbon nanotubes (CNTs) material. Experiments were carried out by considering of CNTs (in four level 0,0.5, 1 and 1.5% wt.%), laser power (60, 80, and 100 watt) and cutting speed 20, 30, and 40 mm/s as input variable factors. The results reveal that CNTs adding improves the laser workability of PMMA and the increasing of power has a significant effect on the part and hole size. The findings also show cutting speed is effective parameter on the size accuracy. Eventually, the statistical analysis of results was done, and calculated mathematical equations by the regression are presented for determining relation between input and output factor.

Keywords: dimensional accuracy, PMMA, CNTs, laser cutting

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Authors: Tokihiko Akita, Seiichi Mita

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A millimeter-wave radar is the most robust against adverse environments, making it an essential environment recognition sensor for automated driving. However, the reflection signal is sparse and unstable, so it is difficult to obtain the high recognition accuracy. Deep learning provides high accuracy even for them in recognition, but requires large scale datasets with ground truth. Specially, it takes a lot of cost to annotate for a millimeter-wave radar. For the solution, utilizing a simulator that can generate an annotated huge dataset is effective. Simulation of the radar is more difficult to match with real world data than camera image, and recognition by deep learning with higher-order features using the simulator causes further deviation. We have challenged to improve the accuracy of traffic participant classification by fusing simulator and real-world data with domain adaptation technique. Experimental results with the domain adaptation network created by us show that classification accuracy can be improved even with a few real-world data.

Keywords: millimeter-wave radar, object classification, deep learning, simulation, domain adaptation

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Authors: Sadiq J. Abou-Loukh, Hanan M. Habbi

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This paper presents a steganography to hide the transmitted information without excite suspicious and also illustrates the level of secrecy that can be increased by using cryptography techniques. The proposed system has been implemented firstly by encrypted image file one time pad key and secondly encrypted message that hidden to perform encryption followed by image embedding. Then the new image file will be created from the original image by using four triangles operation, the new image is processed by one of two image processing techniques. The proposed two processing techniques are thresholding and differential predictive coding (DPC). Afterwards, encryption or decryption keys are generated by functional key generator. The generator key is used one time only. Encrypted text will be hidden in the places that are not used for image processing and key generation system has high embedding rate (0.1875 character/pixel) for true color image (24 bit depth).

Keywords: encryption, thresholding, differential predictive coding, four triangles operation

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Authors: Pegah Safavi, Mehdi Zehtabian, Mohammad Amin Mosleh-Shirazi

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Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in the world. Radiation therapy is one of the main choices for cancer treatment. Intensity-modulated radiation therapy is a new type of radiation therapy technique available for vital structures such as the parathyroid glands. It is very important to check the accuracy of the delivered IMRT treatment because any mistake may lead to more complications for the patient. This paper describes an experiment to determine the accuracy of a dose measured by EBT3 film. To test this method, the EBT3 film on the head and neck of the Rando phantom was irradiated by an IMRT device and the irradiation was repeated twice. Finally, the dose designed by the irradiation system was compared with the dose measured by the EBT3 film. Using this criterion, the accuracy of the EBT3 film was evaluated. When using this criterion, a 95% agreement was reached between the planned treatment and the measured values.

Keywords: EBT3, phantom, accuracy, cancer, IMRT

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Authors: Zhu Weimin, Allegorico Carmine, Ruggiero Gionata

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During decades of Baker Hughes (BH) iCenter experience, it is demonstrated that in addition to conventional insights on equipment steady operation conditions, insights on transient conditions can add significant and exclusive value for anomaly detection, downtime saving, and predictive maintenance. Our work shows examples from the BH iCenter experience to introduce the advantages and features of using transient condition analytics: (i) Operation under critical engine conditions: e.g., high level or high change rate of temperature, pressure, flow, vibration, etc., that would not be reachable in normal operation, (ii) Management of dedicated sub-systems or components, many of which are often bottlenecks for reliability and maintenance, (iii) Indirect detection of anomalies in the absence of instrumentation, (iv) Repetitive sequences: if data is properly processed, the engineering features of transients provide not only anomaly detection but also problem characterization and prognostic indicators for predictive maintenance, (v) Engine variables accounting for fatigue analysis. iCenter has been developing and deploying a series of analytics based on transient conditions. They are contributing to exclusive value adding in the following areas: (i) Reliability improvement, (ii) Startup reliability improvement, (iii) Predictive maintenance, (iv) Repair/overhaul cost down. Illustrative examples for each of the above areas are presented in our study, focusing on challenges and adopted techniques ranging from purely statistical approaches to the implementation of machine learning algorithms. The obtained results demonstrate how the value is obtained using transient condition analytics in the BH iCenter experience.

Keywords: analytics, diagnostics, monitoring, turbomachinery

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Authors: Hasan Basaran, Emre Unal

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Formation flying of satellites is a mission that involves a relative position keeping of different satellites in the constellation. In this study, different control algorithms are compared with one another in terms of ΔV, velocity increment, and tracking error. Various control methods, covering continuous and impulsive approaches are implemented and tested for satellites flying in low Earth orbit. Feedback linearization, sliding mode control, and model predictive control are designed and compared with an impulsive feedback law, which is based on mean orbital elements. Feedback linearization and sliding mode control approaches have identical mathematical models that include second order Earth oblateness effects. The model predictive control, on the other hand, does not include any perturbations and assumes circular chief orbit. The comparison is done with 4 different initial errors and achieved with velocity increment, root mean square error, maximum steady state error, and settling time. It was observed that impulsive law consumed the least ΔV, while produced the highest maximum error in the steady state. The continuous control laws, however, consumed higher velocity increments and produced lower amounts of tracking errors. Finally, the inversely proportional relationship between tracking error and velocity increment was established.

Keywords: chief-deputy satellites, feedback linearization, follower-leader satellites, formation flight, fuel consumption, model predictive control, rendezvous, sliding mode

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Authors: Tran Gia Khanh, Dao Phuong Nam, Do Trong Tan, Nguyen Van Huong, Mai Xuan Sinh

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This work presents the problem of tube-based robust model predictive controller for a class of continuous-time systems in the presence of input disturbances. The main objective is to point out the state trajectory of closed system being maintained inside a sequence of tubes. An estimation of attraction region of the closed system is pointed out based on input state stability (ISS) theory and linearized model in each time interval. The theoretical analysis and simulation results demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm for a wheeled inverted pendulum system.

Keywords: input state stability (ISS), tube-based robust MPC, continuous-time nonlinear systems, wheeled inverted pendulum

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Authors: Rizwan Rizwan

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Differentially private ({DP}) training preserves the data privacy but often leads to slower convergence and lower accuracy, along with notable mis-calibration compared to non-private training. Analyzing {DP} training through a continuous-time approach with the neural tangent kernel ({NTK}). The {NTK} helps characterize per sample {(PS)} gradient clipping and the incorporation of noise during {DP} training across arbitrary network architectures as well as loss functions. Our analysis reveals that noise addition impacts privacy risk exclusively, leaving convergence and calibration unaffected. In contrast, {PS} gradient clipping (flat styles, layerwise styles) influences convergence as well as calibration but not privacy risk. Models with a small clipping norm generally achieve optimal accuracy but exhibit poor calibration, making them less reliable. Conversely, {DP} models that are trained with a large clipping norm maintain the similar accuracy and same privacy guarantee, yet they demonstrate notably improved calibration.

Keywords: deep learning, convergence, differential privacy, calibration

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Authors: Chayanika Hazarika Bordoloi

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This paper is an attempt to work on a highly inflectional language called Assamese. This is also one of the national languages of India and very little has been achieved in terms of computational research. Building a language processing tool for a natural language is not very smooth as the standard and language representation change at various levels. This paper presents inflectional suffixes of Assamese verbs and how the statistical tools, along with linguistic features, can improve the tagging accuracy. Conditional random fields (CRF tool) was used to automatically tag and train the text data; however, accuracy was improved after linguistic featured were fed into the training data. Assamese is a highly inflectional language; hence, it is challenging to standardizing its morphology. Inflectional suffixes are used as a feature of the text data. In order to analyze the inflections of Assamese word forms, a list of suffixes is prepared. This list comprises suffixes, comprising of all possible suffixes that various categories can take is prepared. Assamese words can be classified into inflected classes (noun, pronoun, adjective and verb) and un-inflected classes (adverb and particle). The corpus used for this morphological analysis has huge tokens. The corpus is a mixed corpus and it has given satisfactory accuracy. The accuracy rate of the tagger has gradually improved with the modified training data.

Keywords: CRF, morphology, tagging, tagset

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Authors: Juliette Harper, Yu Yang

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Biofuels have gained significant attention recently due to the new regulations and agreements regarding fossil fuels and greenhouse gases being made by countries around the globe. One of the most common types of biofuels is biodiesel, primarily made via the transesterification reaction. We model this nonlinear process in MATLAB using the standard kinetic equations. Then, a nonlinear Model predictive control (NMPC) was developed to regulate this process due to its capability to handle process constraints. The feeding flow uncertainty and kinetic disturbances are further incorporated in the model to capture the real-world operating conditions. The simulation results will show that the proposed NMPC can guarantee the final composition of fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) above the target threshold with a high chance by adjusting the process temperature and flowrate. This research will allow further understanding of NMPC under uncertainties and how to design the computational strategy for larger process with more variables.

Keywords: NMPC, biodiesel, uncertainties, nonlinear, MATLAB

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

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Authors: Markus Mazzola, Gunther Schaaf

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A vehicle driving with an Adaptive Cruise Control System (ACC) is usually controlled decentrally, based on the information of radar systems and in some publications based on C2X-Communication (CACC) to guarantee stable platoons. In this paper, we present a Model Predictive Control (MPC) design of a centralized, server-based ACC-System, whereby the vehicular platoon is modeled and controlled as a whole. It is then proven that the proposed MPC design guarantees asymptotic stability and hence string stability of the platoon. The Networked MPC design is chosen to be able to integrate system constraints optimally as well as to reduce the effects of communication delay and packet loss. The performance of the proposed controller is then simulated and analyzed in an LTE communication scenario using the LTE/EPC Network Simulator LENA, which is based on the ns-3 network simulator.

Keywords: adaptive cruise control, centralized server, networked model predictive control, string stability

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Authors: Naser Safdarian, Nader Jafarnia Dabanloo

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In this paper we used four features i.e. Q-wave integral, QRS complex integral, T-wave integral and total integral as extracted feature from normal and patient ECG signals to detection and localization of myocardial infarction (MI) in left ventricle of heart. In our research we focused on detection and localization of MI in standard ECG. We use the Q-wave integral and T-wave integral because this feature is important impression in detection of MI. We used some pattern recognition method such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to detect and localize the MI. Because these methods have good accuracy for classification of normal and abnormal signals. We used one type of Radial Basis Function (RBF) that called Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) because of its nonlinearity property, and used other classifier such as k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Naive Bayes Classification. We used PhysioNet database as our training and test data. We reached over 80% for accuracy in test data for localization and over 95% for detection of MI. Main advantages of our method are simplicity and its good accuracy. Also we can improve accuracy of classification by adding more features in this method. A simple method based on using only four features which extracted from standard ECG is presented which has good accuracy in MI localization.

Keywords: ECG signal processing, myocardial infarction, features extraction, pattern recognition

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Authors: Taha SamadSoltani, Peyman Rezaei Hachesu, Marjan GhaziSaeedi, Maryam Zolnoori

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Introduction: Data mining defined as a process to find patterns and relationships along data in the database to build predictive models. Application of data mining extended in vast sectors such as the healthcare services. Medical data mining aims to solve real-world problems in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. This method applies various techniques and algorithms which have different accuracy and precision. The purpose of this study was to apply knowledge discovery and data mining techniques for the diagnosis of asthma based on patient symptoms and history. Method: Data mining includes several steps and decisions should be made by the user which starts by creation of an understanding of the scope and application of previous knowledge in this area and identifying KD process from the point of view of the stakeholders and finished by acting on discovered knowledge using knowledge conducting, integrating knowledge with other systems and knowledge documenting and reporting.in this study a stepwise methodology followed to achieve a logical outcome. Results: Sensitivity, Specifity and Accuracy of KNN, SVM, Naïve bayes, NN, Classification tree and CN2 algorithms and related similar studies was evaluated and ROC curves were plotted to show the performance of the system. Conclusion: The results show that we can accurately diagnose asthma, approximately ninety percent, based on the demographical and clinical data. The study also showed that the methods based on pattern discovery and data mining have a higher sensitivity compared to expert and knowledge-based systems. On the other hand, medical guidelines and evidence-based medicine should be base of diagnostics methods, therefore recommended to machine learning algorithms used in combination with knowledge-based algorithms.

Keywords: asthma, datamining, classification, machine learning

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

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This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain a subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from inflow into waste water treatment plant data which Composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms: K-mean and EM were chosen as a clustering method. The rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of subgroups models. The quality of obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables but with no clustering of data. Results were compared by determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on linear chart. Preliminary results allows to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: clustering, data analysis, data mining, predictive models

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Authors: Manan’Iarivo Rasolonjanahary, Chris Bingham, Nigel Schofield, Masoud Bazargan

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This paper presents the research and application of model predictive scheduled charging of electric vehicles (EV) subject to limited available power resource. To focus on algorithm and operational characteristics, the EV interface to the source is modelled as a battery state equation during the charging operation. The researched methods allow for the priority scheduling of EV charging in a multi-vehicle regime and when subject to limited source power availability. Priority attribution for each connected EV is described. The validity of the developed methodology is shown through the simulation of different scenarios of charging operation of multiple connected EVs including non-scheduled and scheduled operation with various numbers of vehicles. Performance of the developed algorithms is also reported with the recommendation of the choice of suitable parameters.

Keywords: model predictive control, non-scheduled, power limited sources, scheduled and stop-start battery charging

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks

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Authors: Khadidja Bellifa, Sidi Mohamed Mekelleche

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Phenols and especially halogenated phenols represent a substantial part of the chemicals produced worldwide and are known as aquatic pollutants. Quantitative structure–toxicity relationship (QSTR) models are useful for understanding how chemical structure relates to the toxicity of chemicals. In the present study, the acute toxicities of 45 halogenated phenols to Tetrahymena Pyriformis are estimated using no cost semi-empirical quantum chemistry methods. QSTR models were established using the multiple linear regression technique and the predictive ability of the models was evaluated by the internal cross-validation, the Y-randomization and the external validation. Their structural chemical domain has been defined by the leverage approach. The results show that the best model is obtained with the AM1 method (R²= 0.91, R²CV= 0.90, SD= 0.20 for the training set and R²= 0.96, SD= 0.11 for the test set). Moreover, all the Tropsha’ criteria for a predictive QSTR model are verified.

Keywords: halogenated phenols, toxicity mechanism, hydrophobicity, electrophilicity index, quantitative stucture-toxicity relationships

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Authors: Shailaja Grover, Purvi Tiwari, Vigneshwaran S. R., U. Dinesh Kumar

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In India, grapes are one of the most important horticulture crops. Grapes are most vulnerable to downy mildew, which is one of the most devasting diseases. In the absence of a precise weather-based advisory system, farmers spray pesticides on their crops extensively. There are two main challenges associated with using these pesticides. Firstly, most of these sprays were panic sprays, which could have been avoided. Second, farmers use more expensive "Preventive and Eradicate" chemicals than "Systemic, Curative and Anti-sporulate" chemicals. When these chemicals are used indiscriminately, they can enter the fruit and cause health problems such as cancer. This paper utilizes decision trees and predictive modeling techniques to provide grape farmers with customized advice on grape disease management. This model is expected to reduce the overall use of chemicals by approximately 50% and the cost by around 70%. Most of the grapes produced will have relatively low residue levels of pesticides, i.e., below the permissible level.

Keywords: analytics in agriculture, downy mildew, weather based advisory, decision tree, predictive modelling

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Authors: Jaypalsinh B. Parmar, Pintu Nakrani, Ashish Chaurasia

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Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is considered as an important data in GIS-based terrain analysis for many applications and assessment of processes such as environmental and climate change studies, hydrologic modelling, etc. Vertical accuracy of DEM having geographically dynamic nature depends on different parameters which affect the model simulation outcomes. Vertical accuracy assessment in Indian landscape especially in low-lying coastal urban terrain such as lower Tapi Basin is very limited. In the present study, attempt has been made to evaluate the vertical accuracy of 30m resolution open source Indian National Cartosat-1 DEM v3 for Lower Tapi Basin (LTB) from western India. The extensive field investigation is carried out using stratified random fast static DGPS survey in the entire study region, and 117 high accuracy ground control points (GCPs) have been obtained. The above open source DEM was compared with obtained GCPs, and different statistical attributes were envisaged, and vertical error histograms were also evaluated.

Keywords: CartoDEM, Digital Elevation Model, GPS, lower Tapi basin

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Authors: Christina Adly, Meena Abdelmeseeh, Tamer Basha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a system for hand movement recognition using multichannel surface EMG(sEMG) signals obtained from 40 subjects using 40 different exercises, which are available on the Ninapro(Non-Invasive Adaptive Prosthetics) database. First, we applied processing methods to the raw sEMG signals to convert them to their amplitudes. Second, we used deep learning methods to solve our problem by passing the preprocessed signals to Fully connected neural networks(FCNN) and recurrent neural networks(RNN) with Long Short Term Memory(LSTM). Using intrasubject evaluation, The accuracy using the FCNN is 72%, with a processing time for training around 76 minutes, and for RNN's accuracy is 79.9%, with 8 minutes and 22 seconds processing time. Third, we applied some postprocessing methods to improve the accuracy, like majority voting(MV) and Movement Error Rate(MER). The accuracy after applying MV is 75% and 86% for FCNN and RNN, respectively. The MER value has an inverse relationship with the prediction delay while varying the window length for measuring the MV. The different part uses the RNN with the intersubject evaluation. The experimental results showed that to get a good accuracy for testing with reasonable processing time, we should use around 20 subjects.

Keywords: hand movement recognition, recurrent neural network, movement error rate, intrasubject evaluation, intersubject evaluation

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Authors: Danni Cong, Meiping Wu, Hua Mu, Xiaofeng He, Junxiang Lian, Juliang Cao, Shaokun Cai, Hao Qin

Abstract:

Gravity field is of great significance in geoscience, national economy and national security, and gravitational gradient measurement has been extensively studied due to its higher accuracy than gravity measurement. Gravity gradient sensor, being one of core devices of the gravity gradient instrument, plays a key role in measuring accuracy. Therefore, this paper starts from analyzing the working principle of the gravity gradient sensor by Newton’s law, and then considers the relative motion between inertial and non-inertial systems to build a relatively adequate mathematical model, laying a foundation for the measurement error calibration, measurement accuracy improvement.

Keywords: gravity gradient, gravity gradient sensor, accelerometer, single-axis rotation modulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 294