Search results for: optimal transport

Authors: Marlene Perez Villalpando, Kelly Joel Gurubel Tun

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In this paper, we propose an optimal control strategy for a hydroelectric power plant subject to input disturbances like meteorological phenomena. The engineering characteristics of the system are described by a nonlinear model. The random availability of renewable sources is predicted by a high-order neural network trained with an extended Kalman filter, whereas the power generation is regulated by the optimal control law. The main advantage of the system is the stabilization of the amount of power generated in the plant. A control supervisor maintains stability and availability in hydropower reservoirs water levels for power generation. The proposed approach demonstrated a good performance to stabilize the reservoir level and the power generation along their desired trajectories in the presence of disturbances.

Keywords: hydropower, high order neural network, Kalman filter, optimal control

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Authors: Martin Kendra, Jaroslav Mašek, Juraj Čamaj, Matej Babin

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The railway transport is considered as a one of the most environmentally friendly mode of transport. With future prediction of increasing of freight transport there are lines facing problems with demanded capacity. Increase of the track capacity could be achieved by infrastructure constructive adjustments. The contribution shows how the travel time can be minimized and the track capacity increased by changing some of the basic infrastructure and operation parameters, for example, the minimal curve radius of the track, the number of tracks, or the usable track length at stations. Calculation of the necessary parameter changes is based on the fundamental physical laws applied to the train movement, and calculation of the occupation time is dependent on the changes of controlling the traffic between the stations.

Keywords: curve radius, maximum curve speed, track mass capacity, reconstruction

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Authors: Marcel Schneider, Nils Nießen

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Microscopic simulation programs enable the description of the two processes of railway operation and the previous timetabling. Occupation conflicts are often solved based on defined train priorities on both process levels. These conflict resolutions produce knock-on delays for the involved trains. The sum of knock-on delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations. It is either compared to an acceptable level-of-service or the delays are evaluated economically by linearly monetary functions. It is impossible to properly evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for evaluation of dispatching decisions. It uses models of choice of transport and considers the behaviour of the end-costumers. These models evaluate the knock-on delays in more detail than linearly monetary functions and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operation with the macroscopic model of choice of transport. First it will be implemented for the railway operations process, but it can also be used for timetabling. The evaluation considers the possibility to change over to other transport modes by the end-costumers. The new approach first looks at the rail-mounted and road transport, but it can also be extended to air transport. The split of the end-costumers is described by the modal-split. The reactions by the end-costumers have an effect on the revenues of the railway undertakings. Various travel purposes has different pavement reserves and tolerances towards delays. Longer journey times affect besides revenue changes also additional costs. The costs depend either on time or track and arise from circulation of workers and vehicles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of the delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different resolution decisions of the same conflict. The conflict resolution is improved until the monetary loss becomes minimised. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by observing the change of the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be determined.

Keywords: choice of transport, knock-on delays, monetary evaluation, railway operations

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Authors: Beom-Ryeol Choi, Won-Poong Lee, Jin-Young Choi, Young-Hak Shin, Dong-Jun Won

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A Microgrid (MG) has a major role in power system. There are numerous benefits, such as ability to reduce environmental impact and enhance the reliability of a power system. Hence, Multi-MG (MMG) consisted of multiple MGs is being studied intensively. This paper proposes the optimal power exchange of MMG with hierarchical coordination. The whole system architecture consists of two layers: 1) upper layer including MG of MG Center (MoMC) which is in charge of the overall management and coordination and 2) lower layer comprised of several Microgrid-Energy Management Systems (MG-EMSs) which make a decision for own schedule. In order to accomplish the optimal power exchange, the proposed coordination algorithm is applied to MMG system. The objective of this process is to achieve optimal operation for improving economics under the grid-connected operation. The simulation results show how the output of each MG can be changed through coordination algorithm.

Keywords: microgrids, multi-microgrids, power exchange, hierarchical coordination

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Authors: Vandenbroucke Karel, Georges Annabel, Schuurman Dimitri

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In the past years, bundling of transport flows, whether or not implemented in an intermodal process, has popped up as a promising concept in the logistics sector. Bundling of transport flows is a process where two or more shippers decide to synergize their shipped goods over a common transport lane. Promoted by the European Commission, several programs have been set up and have shown their benefits. Bundling promises both shippers and logistics service providers economic, societal and ecological benefits. By bundling transport flows and thus reducing truck (or other carrier) capacity, the problems of driver shortage, increased fuel prices, mileage charges and restricted hours of service on the road are solved. In theory, the advantages of bundled transport exceed the drawbacks, however, in practice adoption among shippers remains low. In fact, bundling is mentioned as a disruptive process in the rather traditional logistics sector. In this context, a Belgian company asked iMinds Living Labs to set up a Living Lab research project with the goal to investigate how the uptake of bundling transport flows can be accelerated and to check whether an online data sharing platform can overcome the adoption barriers. The Living Lab research was conducted in 2016 and combined quantitative and qualitative end-user and market research. Concretely, extensive desk research was conducted and combined with insights from expert interviews with four consultants active in the Belgian logistics sector and in-depth interviews with logistics professionals working for shippers (N=10) and LSP’s (N=3). In the article, we present findings which show that there are several factors slowing down the uptake of bundling transport flows. Shippers are hesitant to change how they currently work and they are hesitant to work together with other shippers. Moreover, several practical challenges impede shippers to work together. We also present some opportunities that can accelerate the adoption of bundling of transport flows. First, it seems that there is not enough support coming from governmental and commercial organizations. Secondly, there is the chicken and the egg problem: too few interested parties will lead to no or very few matching lanes. Shippers are therefore reluctant to partake in these projects because the benefits have not yet been proven. Thirdly, the incentive is not big enough for shippers. Road transport organized by the shipper individually is still seen as the easiest and cheapest solution. A solution for the abovementioned challenges might be found in the online data sharing platform of the Belgian company. The added value of this platform is showing shippers possible matching lanes, without the shippers having to invest time in negotiating and networking with other shippers and running the risk of not finding a match. The interviewed shippers and experts indicated that the online data sharing platform is a very promising concept which could accelerate the uptake of bundling of transport flows.

Keywords: adoption barriers, bundling of transport, shippers, transport optimization

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Authors: Eun Ko, Moonsung Choi, Sooim Shin

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4,4’-Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (4,4’-DDT) is colorless, odorless organochlorine and known as persistent toxic organic pollutant accumulated in organs. In this study, effects of 4,4’-DDT on activities of mitochondrial electron transport chain system was analyzed. 4,4’-DDT is directly treated to isolated mitochondria from eyes of zebrafish and then activities of mitochondrial complex I, II, III, IV were measured spectrophotometrically. The reaction was proceeded immediately after adding 4,4’-DDT to examine the short-term exposing effects of persistent organic pollutant. As a result, high concentration of 4,4’-DDT treated mitochondria exhibited slightly enhanced activity in all complexes than non-treated one except complex III in male. Particularly, 4,4’-DDT was more effective on enzymatic activity in mitochondria isolated from eyes of male zebrafish. These results represented that 4,4’-DDT might temporarily induce to open up ion channel on isolated mitochondria resulting in increasing the functional activity of mitochondrial electron transport chain system.

Keywords: electron transport chain, mitochondrial function, persistent organic pollutant, spectrophotometric assay, zebrafish

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Authors: Gabriel Sitler, Yousef Sardahi, Asad Salem

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This paper presents an optimal and robust sliding mode controller (SMC) to regulate the position of the knee joint angle for patients suffering from knee injuries. The controller imitates the role of active orthoses that produce the joint torques required to overcome gravity and loading forces and regain natural human movements. To this end, a mathematical model of the shank, the lower part of the leg, is derived first and then used for the control system design and computer simulations. The design of the controller is carried out in optimal and multi-objective settings. Four objectives are considered: minimization of the control effort and tracking error; and maximization of the control signal smoothness and closed-loop system’s speed of response. Optimal solutions in terms of the Pareto set and its image, the Pareto front, are obtained. The results show that there are trade-offs among the design objectives and many optimal solutions from which the decision-maker can choose to implement. Also, computer simulations conducted at different points from the Pareto set and assuming knee squat movement demonstrate competing relationships among the design goals. In addition, the proposed control algorithm shows robustness in tracking a standard gait signal when accounting for uncertainty in the shank’s parameters.

Keywords: optimal control, multi-objective optimization, sliding mode control, wearable knee exoskeletons

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Authors: A. Bentabet, A. Aydin, N. Fenineche

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In this work, we try to determine the best analytical approximation of differential cross sections, used generally in Monte Carlo simulation, to study the electron/positron slowing down in solid targets in the energy range up to 10 keV. Actually, our comparative study was carried out on the angular distribution of the scattering angle, the elastic total and the first transport cross sections which are the essential quantities used generally in the electron/positron transport study by using both stochastic and deterministic methods. Indeed, the obtained results using the relativistic partial wave expansion method and the backscattering coefficient experimental data are used as criteria to evaluate the used model.

Keywords: differential cross-section, backscattering coefficient, Rutherford cross-section, Vicanek and Urbassek theory

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Agarana Michael C., Akinlabi Esther T., Pule Kholopane

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In order to sustain the advantages of an advanced manufacturing technique, such as laser sintering, minimization of total processing cost of the parts being produced is very important. An efficient time management would usually very important in optimal cost attainment which would ultimately result in an efficient advanced manufacturing process planning and control. During Laser Scanning Process Scanning (SLS) procedures it is possible to adjust various manufacturing parameters which are used to influence the improvement of various mechanical and other properties of the products. In this study, Modelling and mathematical analysis, including sensitivity analysis, of the laser sintering process time were carried out. The results of the analyses were represented with graphs, from where conclusions were drawn. It was specifically observed that achievement of optimal total scanning time is key for economic efficiency which is required for sustainability of the process.

Keywords: modeling and analysis, optimal planning and control, laser sintering process, scanning time

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Authors: V. Pérez-Herranz, M. Pinel, E. M. Ortega, M. García-Gabaldón

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In the present work, Electrochemical Impedance Spectrocopy (EIS) is applied to study the transport of different metal cations through a cation-exchange membrane. This technique enables the identification of the ionic-transport characteristics and to distinguish between different transport mechanisms occurring at different current density ranges. The impedance spectra are dependent on the applied dc current density, on the type of cation and on the concentration. When the applied dc current density increases, the diameter of the impedance spectra loops increases because all the components of membrane system resistance increase. The diameter of the impedance plots decreases in the order of Na(I), Ni(II) and Cr(III) due to the increased interactions between the negatively charged sulfonic groups of the membrane and the cations with greater charge. Nyquist plots are shifted towards lower values of the real impedance, and its diameter decreases with the increase of concentration due to the decrease of the solution resistance.

Keywords: ion-exchange membranes, Electrochemical Impedance Spectrocopy, multivalent metal cations, membrane system

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Authors: Beatriz Mella Lira, Karla Yohannessen, Robin Hickman

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The aim of the paper is recognising inequalities through the self-assessment of health-related factors, in the context of daily mobilities in Santiago de Chile. Human capabilities will be used as the theoretical basis for the recognition and assessment of these factors regarding the functioning (what people are currently able to do) and capabilities (what people want to achieve and what is valuable for them), reflecting differences across social groups and among types of transport users. The self-assessment of health-related factors considers perceptions of stress, physical effort, proximity to other transport users, pollution, safety, and comfort. The types of transport users are classified as: private (cars, taxis, colectivos, motos), public (buses and metro) and active (bicycles and walking). The methodology follows a capability-based questionnaire, which was applied in different areas of Santiago de Chile, considering concepts extracted from the human capabilities list. The self-assessment of these health-related factors examines the context of peoples’ mobilities for performing their daily activities, considering socioeconomic differences as income, age, gender, disabilities, residence location and primary mode choice. The paper uses Relative Importance Index (RII) for weighting the relative influence or valuation of the factors. The respondents were asked to rate the importance of each factor on a scale from 1 to 5, in an ascending order of importance. The results suggest that these health-related factors impact not just the perceptions of users, but their well-being and their propensity for achieving their capabilities and the things they value in life. The paper is focused on the development of an applicable approach, measuring factors that should be included in transport project appraisal, as a more comprehensive and complementary method.

Keywords: active transport, health, human capabilities, Santiago de Chile, transport inequalities, transportation planning, urban planning

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Authors: Sang Wook Park, Se Woon Choi, Yousok Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

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Various retrofit techniques for reinforced concrete frame with infill wall have been steadily developed. Among those techniques, strengthening methodology based on diagonal FRP strips (FRP bracings) has numerous advantages such as feasibility of implementing without interrupting the building under operation, reduction of cost and time, and easy application. Considering the safety of structure and retrofit cost, the most appropriate retrofit solution is needed. Thus, the objective of this study is to suggest pareto-optimal solution for existing building using FRP bracings. To find pareto-optimal solution analysis, NSGA-II is applied. Moreover, the seismic performance of retrofit building is evaluated. The example building is 5-storey, 3-bay RC frames with infill wall. Nonlinear static pushover analyses are performed with FEMA 356. The criterion of performance evaluation is inter-story drift ratio at the performance level IO, LS, CP. Optimal retrofit solutions is obtained for 32 individuals and 200 generations. Through the proposed optimal solutions, we confirm the improvement of seismic performance of the example building.

Keywords: retrofit, FRP bracings, reinforced concrete frame with infill wall, seismic performance evaluation, NSGA-II

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Authors: S. Dey, P. Sibanda, S. Gupta, A. Chakraborty

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The occurrence of high nocturnal surface ozone over a tropical urban area (23̊ 32′16.99″ N and 87̊ 17′ 38.95″ E) is analyzed in this paper. Five incidences of nocturnal ozone maxima are recorded during the observational span of two years (June, 2013 to May, 2015). The maximum and minimum values of the surface ozone during these five occasions are 337.630 μg/m³ and 13.034 μg/m³ respectively. HYSPLIT backward trajectory analyses and wind rose diagrams support the horizontal transport of ozone from distant polluted places. Planetary boundary layer characteristics, concentration of precursor (NO₂) and meteorology are found to play important role in the horizontal and vertical transport of surface ozone during nighttime.

Keywords: nocturnal ozone, planetary boundary layer, horizontal transport, meteorology, urban area

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Authors: Arindam Roy, Madhushree Das, Apurba Manna, Samir Maity

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In this research paper, an algorithmic approach is developed to solve a novel multi-objective four-dimensional traveling salesman problem (MO4DTSP) where different paths with various numbers of conveyances are available to travel between two cities. NSGA-II and Decomposition algorithms are modified to solve MO4DTSP in an IoT-based transport system. This IoT-based transport system can be widely observed, analyzed, and controlled by an extensive distribution of traffic networks consisting of various types of sensors and actuators. Due to urbanization, most of the cities are connected using an intelligent traffic management system. Practically, for a traveler, multiple routes and vehicles are available to travel between any two cities. Thus, the classical TSP is reformulated as multi-route and multi-vehicle i.e., 4DTSP. The proposed MO4DTSP is designed with traveling cost, time, and customer satisfaction as objectives. In reality, customer satisfaction is an important parameter that depends on travel costs and time reflects in the present model.

Keywords: multi-objective four-dimensional traveling salesman problem (MO4DTSP), decomposition, NSGA-II, IoT-based transport system, customer satisfaction

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Authors: Elena Valionienė, Genutė Kalvaitienė

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The issue of resilience of an individual, an organisation, or an entire ecosystem of organisations has recently become an integral part of the education system, where the uncertainties that lead to societal development in the short term create economic, social, and psycho-emotional instability. The Maritime Transport Sector (MTS) is no exception, and the aim of the article is to model the possibilities of enhancing the professional, sociocultural, and psycho-emotional resilience of MTS specialists to proactively respond to crises caused by uncertainties. The research consists of theoretical model creation that helps to identify general maritime business resilience factors and critical success factors. This can develop high resilience and achieve business excellence in a highly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment.

Keywords: maritime transport sector, resilience, uncertainties, VUCA

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Authors: Adedayo B. Adegbaju, Carel B. Schoeman, Ilse M. Schoeman

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The unique urban contexts that emanated from the apartheid history of South Africa informed the transport landscape of the City of Johannesburg. Apartheid‘s divisive spatial planning and land use management policies promoted sprawling and separated workers from job opportunities. This was further exacerbated by poor funding of public transport and road designs that encouraged the use of private cars. However, the democratization of the country in 1994 and the hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup provided a new impetus to the city’s public transport-oriented urban planning inputs. At the same time, the state’s new approach to policy formulations that entails the provision of public transport as one of the tools to end years of marginalization and inequalities soon began to largely reflect in planning decisions of other spheres of government. The Rea Vaya BRT and the Gautrain were respectively implemented by the municipal and provincial governments to demonstrate strong political will and commitment to the new policy direction. While the Gautrain was implemented to facilitate elite movement within Gauteng and to crowd investments and economic growths around station nodes, the BRT was provided for previously marginalized public transport users to provide a sustainable alternative to the dominant minibus taxi. The aim of this research is to evaluate the spatial impacts of the Gautrain and Rea Vaya BRT on the City of Johannesburg and to inform future outcomes by determining the existing potentials. By using the case study approach with a focus on the BRT and fast rail in a metropolitan context, the triangulation research method, which combines various data collection methods, was used to determine the research outcomes. The use of interviews, questionnaires, field observation, and databases such as REX, Quantec, StatsSA, GCRO observatory, national and provincial household travel surveys, and the quality of life surveys provided the basis for data collection. The research concludes that the Gautrain has demonstrated that viable alternatives to the private car can be provided, with its satisfactory feedbacks from users; while some of its station nodes (Sandton, Rosebank) have shown promises of transit-oriented development, one of the project‘s key objectives. The other stations have been unable to stimulate growth due to reasons like non-implementation of their urban design frameworks and lack of public sector investment required to attract private investors. The Rea Vaya BRT continues to be expanded in spite of both its inability to induce modal change and its low ridership figures. The research identifies factors like the low peak to base ratio, pricing, and the city‘s disjointed urban fabric as some of the reasons for its below-average performance. By drawing from the highlights and limitations, the study recommends that public transport provision should be institutionally integrated across and within spheres of government. Similarly, harmonization of the funding structure, better understanding of users’ needs, and travel patterns, underlined with continuity of policy direction and objectives, will equally promote optimal outcomes.

Keywords: bus rapid transit, Gautrain, Rea Vaya, sustainable transport, spatial and transport planning, transit oriented development

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Maghsoudi, Z. Mohamed, A. R. Husain

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Input shaping has been utilized for vibration reduction of many oscillatory systems. This paper presents an optimal closed-loop input shaping scheme for control of a three dimensional (3D) gantry crane system including. This includes a PID controller and Zero Vibration shaper which consider two control objectives concurrently. The control objectives are minimum sway of a payload and fast and accurate positioning of a trolley. A complete mathematical model of a lab-scaled 3D gantry crane is simulated in Simulink. Moreover, by utilizing PSO algorithm and a proposed scheme the controller is designed to cater both control objectives concurrently. Simulation studies on a 3D gantry crane show that the proposed optimal controller has an acceptable performance. The controller provides good position response with satisfactory payload sway in both rail and trolley responses.

Keywords: 3D gantry crane, input shaping, closed-loop control, optimal scheme, PID

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Authors: S. Fazi, B. Behdani

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The inland transportation of maritime containers entails the use of different modalities whose capacity is typically booked in advance. Containers may miss their scheduled departure time at a terminal for several reasons, such as delays, change of transport modes, multiple bookings pending. In those cases, it may be difficult for transport service providers to find last minute containers to fill the vacant capacity. Similarly to other industries, overbooking could potentially limit these drawbacks at the cost of a lower service level in case of actual excess of capacity in overbooked rides. However, the presence of multiple modalities may provide the required flexibility in rescheduling and limit the dissatisfaction of the shippers in case of containers in overbooking. This flexibility is known with the term 'synchromodality'. In this paper, we evaluate via discrete event simulation the application of overbooking. Results show that in certain conditions overbooking can significantly increase profit and utilization of high-capacity means of transport, such as barges and trains. On the other hand, in case of high penalty costs and limited no-show, overbooking may lead to an excessive use of expensive trucks.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, flexibility, inland shipping, multimodality, overbooking

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Authors: Caroline Demartin, Natalia Camaras, Nelson Maestrelli, Max Filipe Gonçalves

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This paper presents a case study of Lean Thinking at the cargo transport area. Lean Office principles are considered the application of Lean Thinking focusing on the service area and it is based on Lean Production concepts. Lean production is a philosophy that was born and gained ground after the Second World War when the Japanese Toyota Company developed a process of identifying and eliminating waste. Many researchers show that most part of the companies decide to adopt the principles created at Toyota especially in the manufacturing sector, but until 90’s, has no major applications for the service sector. Due to increased competition and the need for competitive advantage, many companies began to observe the lean transformation and take it as reference. In this study, a key process at a cargo transport company was analyzed using Lean Office tools and methods: a current state map was developed, main wastes were identified, some metrics were used to evaluate improvements and a priority matrix was used to identify action plans. The obtained results showed that Lean Office has a great potential to be successful applied in cargo air transport companies.

Keywords: lean production, lean office, logistic, service sector

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Authors: Dao Phuong Nam, Tran Van Tuyen, Do Trong Tan, Bui Minh Dinh, Nguyen Van Huong

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In this paper, we investigate the adaptive optimal control law for continuous-time systems with input disturbances and unknown parameters. This paper extends previous works to obtain the robust control law of uncertain systems. Through theoretical analysis, an adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) based optimal control is proposed to stabilize the closed-loop system and ensure the convergence properties of proposed iterative algorithm. Moreover, the global asymptotic stability (GAS) for closed system is also analyzed. The theoretical analysis for continuous-time systems and simulation results demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm for an inverted pendulum system.

Keywords: approximate/adaptive dynamic programming, ADP, adaptive optimal control law, input state stability, ISS, inverted pendulum

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Authors: Hossein Shokouhmand, Seyyed Mostafa Saadat

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In this paper, the effect of thermal dispersion on the performance of plate heat exchangers (PHEs) with sinusoidal plates is investigated. In this regard, the PHE is considered as a porous medium. The important property of a porous medium is porosity that is defined as the total fluid volume divided by the total volume occupied by the solid and fluid. A 2D array of parallel sinusoidal plates with laminar periodically developed forced convection and single-phase constant property flows and conduction in a homogenous solid phase in two directions is considered. The array of flows is counter and the flows heat capacities are equal. Numerical study of conjugate heat transfer and axial conduction in the solid phase with different plate thicknesses showed that there is an optimal porosity in which the efficiency of heat transfer is up to 4% more than the time when the porosity is near one. It is shown that the optimal porosity at zero angle of inclination depends both on Reynolds number and the aspect ratio. The optimal porosity increased while either the Reynolds number or waviness of plates increased.

Keywords: plate heat exchanger, optimal porosity, efficiency, aspect ratio

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Authors: Kehinde Peter Oyeduntan, Kayode Oshinubi

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Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the spark plug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria in terms of its GDP.

Keywords: maritime transport, economy, GDP, regression, port

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Authors: D. Onanena Adegono, P. Altinsoy, A. Schuster, P. Schäfer

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Autonomous vehicles look set to drastically alter the way we move people and goods, in urban as well as rural areas. However, little has been written about Africa with this regard. Moreover, in order for this new technology to be adopted, user acceptance is vital. The current research examines the user acceptance of autonomous minibus shuttles, as a solution for first/last mile public transport in Pretoria, South Africa. Of the respondents surveyed, only 2.31% perceived them as not useful. Respondents showed more interest in using these shuttles in combination with the bus rapid transit system (75.4%) as opposed to other modes of public transportation (40%). The significance of these findings is that they can help ensure that the implementation of autonomous public transport in South Africa is adapted to the local user. Furthermore, these findings could be adapted for other South African cities and other cities across the continent.

Keywords: autonomous buses and shuttles, autonomous public transport, urban mobility, user acceptance

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Vanelslander, Eddy Van De Voorde

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Nowadays maritime transport is a key element in international trade and global supply chain. Economies of scale in transporting goods are one of the most attractive elements of using ships. Without maritime transport, almost no globalization of economics can be imagined. Within maritime transport, ports are the interface between lands and see. Even though using ships help cargo owners to have a competitive margin but an accident in port during loading or unloading or even moving cargoes within the terminal can diminish such margin. Statistics shows that due to the high-speed notion of activities within ports, collision accidents are the most common type of accidents. To mitigate such accidents, the appropriate risk exposures have to be defined and calculate, later on risk probabilities can be determined for each type of accident, i.e. fatal, severe, moderate and minor ones. Having such risk probabilities help managers to define the effectiveness of each collision risk control option. This research defined travelled distance as main collision risk exposure in container terminals, taking all the related items into consideration, it was calculated for Shahid Rajae container terminals. Following this finding, collision risk probabilities were computed.

Keywords: collision accident, container terminal, maritime transport, risk exposure

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Authors: Josip Dorigatti, Tina Perić, Gorana Jelić Mrčelić

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This paper makes a review of present researches on sustainable development, sustainable maritime transport and presents the problem of sustainability in the cruise ships industry. It deals with cruise ships' routing in coastal navigation and its impact on sustainability from environmental, economical, and social aspects. A review of researches available on maritime sustainability brings to the attention how sustainability from a maritime transport perspective is still not enough analysed and researched as it is the case in other industries. The paper emphasises how the operational part of the cruising industry, in particular cruise ships routing in coastal navigation, is not yet researched nor analysed from the aspect of sustainability. The author, based on his extensive senior officer experience in the cruising industry, makes an overview of cruise ship routing practice. Accordingly, based on present cruise industry trends, challenges are highlighted from the aspect of sustainable cruise ships routing in coastal navigation.

Keywords: sustainable development, maritime transport, cruise shipping, cruise ship routes, coastal navigation

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Authors: C. B. Masera, M. Imprialou, L. Budd, C. Morton

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Even though signalised intersections are necessary for urban road traffic management, they can act as bottlenecks and disrupt traffic operations. Interrupted traffic flow causes congestion, delays, stop-and-go conditions (i.e. excessive acceleration/deceleration) and longer journey times. Vehicle and infrastructure connectivity offers the potential to provide improved new services with additional functions of assisting drivers. This paper focuses on one of the applications of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication namely Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA). To assess the effectiveness of GLOSA in the urban road network, an integrated microscopic traffic simulation framework is built into VISSIM software. Vehicle movements and vehicle-infrastructure communications are simulated through the interface of External Driver Model. A control algorithm is developed for recommending an optimal speed that is continuously updated in every time step for all vehicles approaching a signal-controlled point. This algorithm allows vehicles to pass a traffic signal without stopping or to minimise stopping times at a red phase. This study is performed with all connected vehicles at 100% penetration rate. Conventional vehicles are also simulated in the same network as a reference. A straight road segment composed of two opposite directions with two traffic lights per lane is studied. The simulation is implemented under 150 vehicles per hour and 200 per hour traffic volume conditions to identify how different traffic densities influence the benefits of GLOSA. The results indicate that traffic flow is improved by the application of GLOSA. According to this study, vehicles passed through the traffic lights more smoothly, and waiting times were reduced by up to 28 seconds. Average delays decreased for the entire network by 86.46% and 83.84% under traffic densities of 150 vehicles per hour per lane and 200 vehicles per hour per lane, respectively.

Keywords: connected vehicles, GLOSA, intelligent transport systems, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication

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Authors: Shonak Bansal, Prince Jain, Arun Kumar Singh, Neena Gupta

Abstract:

Recently nature–inspired algorithms have widespread use throughout the tough and time consuming multi–objective scientific and engineering design optimization problems. In this paper, we present extended forms of firefly algorithm to find optimal Golomb ruler (OGR) sequences. The OGRs have their one of the major application as unequally spaced channel–allocation algorithm in optical wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) systems in order to minimize the adverse four–wave mixing (FWM) crosstalk effect. The simulation results conclude that the proposed optimization algorithm has superior performance compared to the existing conventional computing and nature–inspired optimization algorithms to find OGRs in terms of ruler length, total optical channel bandwidth and computation time.

Keywords: channel allocation, conventional computing, four–wave mixing, nature–inspired algorithm, optimal Golomb ruler, lévy flight distribution, optimization, improved multi–objective firefly algorithms, Pareto optimal

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Yuanjin Liu

Abstract:

Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Vladimir Klepikov

Abstract:

Countries of Central and Southern Europe have a typical feature: oil consumption in the region exceeds own commodity production capacity by far. So crude oil import prevails in the region’s crude oil consumption structure. Transportation using marine and pipeline transport is a common method of the imported oil delivery in the region. For certain refineries, in addition to possible transportation by oil pipelines from seaports, oil is delivered from Russian oil fields. With the view to these specific features and geographic location of the region’s refineries, three ways of imported oil delivery can be singled out: oil delivery by tankers to the port and subsequent transportation by pipeline transport of the port and the refinery; oil delivery by tanker fleet to the port and subsequent transportation by oil trunk pipeline transport; oil delivery from the fields by oil trunk pipelines to refineries. Oil is also delivered by road, internal water, and rail transport. However, the volumes transported this way are negligible in comparison to the three above transportation means. Multimodal oil transportation to refineries using the pipeline and marine transport is one of the biggest cargo flows worldwide. However, in scientific publications this problem is considered mainly for certain modes of transport. Therefore, this study is topical. To elaborate an efficient transportation policy of crude oil supply to Central and Southern Europe, in this paper the geographic concentration of oil refineries was determined and the capacities of the region’s refineries were assessed. The quantitative analysis method is used as a tool. The port infrastructure and the oil trunk pipeline system capacity were assessed in terms of delivery of raw materials to the refineries. The main groups of oil consuming countries were determined. The trends of crude oil production in the region were reviewed. The changes in production capacities and volumes at refineries in the last decade were shown. Based on the revealed refining trends, the scope of possible crude oil supplies to the refineries of the region under review was forecast. The existing transport infrastructure is able to handle the increased oil flow.

Keywords: European region, infrastructure, oil terminal capacity, pipeline capacity, refinery capacity, tanker draft

Procedia PDF Downloads 131