Search results for: optimal price

Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, the joint optimization of the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ), safety stock level, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is presented for a partially observable, deteriorating system subject to random failure. The demand is stochastic and it is described by a Poisson process. The stochastic model is developed and the optimization problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. A modification of the policy iteration algorithm is developed to find the optimal policy. A numerical example is presented to compare the optimal policy with the policy considering zero safety stock.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, economic manufacturing quantity, safety stock, stochastic demand

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Authors: Mohsen Akhlaghi, Tahereh Ebrahimi

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Pricing strategy is a vital component in achieving the balance between customer value and business profitability. The aim of this study is to provide insights into the factors, techniques, and approaches involved in pricing decisions. The study utilizes a descriptive approach to discuss various aspects of pricing strategy in marketing, drawing on concepts from market research, consumer psychology, competitive analysis, and adaptability. This approach presents a comprehensive view of pricing decisions. The result of this exploration is a framework that highlights key factors influencing pricing decisions. The study examines how factors such as market positioning, product differentiation, and brand image shape pricing strategies. Additionally, it emphasizes the role of consumer psychology in understanding price elasticity, perceived value, and price-quality associations that influence consumer behavior. Various pricing techniques, including charm pricing, prestige pricing, and bundle pricing, are mentioned as methods to enhance sales by influencing consumer perceptions. The study also underscores the importance of adaptability in responding to market dynamics through regular price monitoring, dynamic pricing, and promotional strategies. It recognizes the role of digital platforms in enabling personalized pricing and dynamic pricing models. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that effective pricing strategies strike a balance between customer value and business profitability, ultimately driving sales, enhancing brand perception, and fostering lasting customer relationships.

Keywords: business, customer benefits, marketing, pricing

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models are dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator which is an extension of the Arellano-Bond model where past values and different transformations of past values of the potentially problematic independent variable are used as instruments together with other instrumental variables. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator augments Arellano–Bond by making an additional assumption that first differences of instrument variables are uncorrelated with the fixed effects. This allows the introduction of more instruments and can dramatically improve efficiency. It builds a system of two equations—the original equation and the transformed one—and is also known as system GMM. In this study, Finnish housing price dynamics were examined empirically by using the Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimation technique together with ordinary OLS. The aim of the analysis was to provide a comparison between conventional fixed-effects panel data models and dynamic panel data models. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator is suitable for this analysis for a number of reasons: It is a general estimator designed for situations with 1) a linear functional relationship; 2) one left-hand-side variable that is dynamic, depending on its own past realizations; 3) independent variables that are not strictly exogenous, meaning they are correlated with past and possibly current realizations of the error; 4) fixed individual effects; and 5) heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation within individuals but not across them. Based on data of 14 Finnish cities over 1988-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were considerable when different models and instrumenting were used. Especially, the use of different instrumental variables caused variation of model estimates together with their statistical significance. This was particularly clear when comparing estimates of OLS with different dynamic panel data models. Estimates provided by dynamic panel data models were more in line with theory of housing price dynamics.

Keywords: dynamic model, fixed effects, panel data, price dynamics

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Tzu-hsun Yen

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Because of the long-term commitment to net zero carbon emission, utility companies include more renewable energy supply, which generates electricity with time and weather restrictions. This leads to time-of-use electricity pricing to reflect the actual cost of energy supply. From an end-user point of view, better residential energy management is needed to incorporate the time-of-use prices and assist end users in scheduling their daily use of electricity. This study uses bi-criteria optimization methods to schedule daily energy consumption by minimizing the electricity cost and maximizing the comfort of end users. Different from most previous research, this study schedules users’ activities rather than household appliances to have better measures of users’ comfort/satisfaction. The relation between each activity and the use of different appliances could be defined by users. The comfort level is at the highest when the time and duration of an activity completely meet the user’s expectation, and the comfort level decreases when the time and duration do not meet expectations. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data for establishing regression models that describe users’ comfort levels when the execution time and duration of activities are different from user expectations. Six regression models representing the comfort levels for six types of activities were established using the responses to the questionnaire survey. A computer program is developed to evaluate electricity cost and the comfort level for each feasible schedule and then find the non-dominated schedules. The Epsilon constraint method is used to find the optimal schedule out of the non-dominated schedules. A hypothetical case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the computer program. Using the program, users can obtain the optimal schedule of daily energy consumption by inputting the intended time and duration of activities and the given time-of-use electricity prices.

Keywords: bi-criteria optimization, energy consumption, time-of-use price, scheduling

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Authors: Badr A. Al-Jehani

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Nowadays, contractor selection is a critical activity of the project owner. Selecting the right contractor is essential to the project manager for the success of the project, and this cab happens by using the proper selecting method. Traditionally, the contractor is being selected based on his offered bid price. This approach focuses only on the price factor and forgetting other essential factors for the success of the project. In this research paper, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used as a decision tool model to select the most appropriate contractor. This decision-making method can help the clients who work in the construction industry to identify contractors who are capable of delivering satisfactory outcomes. Moreover, this research paper provides a case study of selecting the proper contractor among three contractors by using ANP method. The case study identifies and computes the relative weight of the eight criteria and eleven sub-criteria using a questionnaire.

Keywords: contractor selection, project management, decision-making, bidding

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Authors: Ahmed Ouammi

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This paper presents an integrated decision framework to support decision makers in the selection and optimal allocation of wind power plants in the electric grid. The developed approach intends to maximize the benefice related to the project investment during the planning period. The proposed decision model considers the main cost components, meteorological data, environmental impacts, operation and regulation constraints, and territorial information. The decision framework is expressed as a stochastic constrained optimization problem with the aim to identify the suitable locations and related optimal wind turbine technology considering the operational constraints and maximizing the benefice. The developed decision support system is applied to a case study to demonstrate and validate its performance.

Keywords: decision support systems, electric power grid, optimization, wind energy

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Authors: Christian Rathgeber, Franz Winkler, Xiaoyu Kang, Steffen Müller

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In this contribution two approaches for calculating optimal trajectories for highly automated vehicles are presented and compared. The first one is based on a non-linear vehicle model, used for evaluation. The second one is based on a simplified model and can be implemented on a current ECU. In usual driving situations both approaches show very similar results.

Keywords: trajectory planning, direct method, indirect method, highly automated driving

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: Sie Long Kek, Wah June Leong, Kok Lay Teo

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Linear quadratic Gaussian model is a standard mathematical model for the stochastic optimal control problem. The combination of the linear quadratic estimation and the linear quadratic regulator allows the state estimation and the optimal control policy to be designed separately. This is known as the separation principle. In this paper, an efficient computational method is proposed to solve the linear quadratic Gaussian problem. In our approach, the Hamiltonian function is defined, and the necessary conditions are derived. In addition to this, the output error is defined and the least-square optimization problem is introduced. By determining the first-order necessary condition, the gradient of the sum squares of output error is established. On this point of view, the stochastic approximation approach is employed such that the optimal control policy is updated. Within a given tolerance, the iteration procedure would be stopped and the optimal solution of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is obtained. For illustration, an example of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is studied. The result shows the efficiency of the approach proposed. In conclusion, the applicability of the approach proposed for solving the linear quadratic Gaussian problem is highly demonstrated.

Keywords: iteration procedure, least squares solution, linear quadratic Gaussian, output error, stochastic approximation

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Authors: Yuanhao Gao, Pin Lin, Kees Weijer

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In this paper, we will determine the external body force distribution with analysis of stokes fluid motion using mathematical modelling and numerical approaching. The body force distribution is regarded as the unknown variable and could be determined by the idea of optimal control theory. The Stokes flow motion and its velocity are generated by given forces in a unit square domain. A regularized objective functional is built to match the numerical result of flow velocity with the generated velocity data. So that the force distribution could be determined by minimizing the value of objective functional, which is also the difference between the numerical and experimental velocity. Then after utilizing the Lagrange multiplier method, some partial differential equations are formulated consisting the optimal control system to solve. Finite element method and conjugate gradient method are used to discretize equations and deduce the iterative expression of target body force to compute the velocity numerically and body force distribution. Programming environment FreeFEM++ supports the implementation of this model.

Keywords: optimal control model, Stokes equation, finite element method, conjugate gradient method

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Authors: M. F. F. Ab Rashid, A. N. Mohd Rose, N. M. Z. Nik Mohamed, W. S. Wan Harun, S. A. Che Ghani

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Traveling salesman problem with precedence constraint (TSPPC) is one of the most complex problems in combinatorial optimization. The existing algorithms to solve TSPPC cost large computational time to find the optimal solution. The purpose of this paper is to present an efficient genetic algorithm that guarantees optimal solution with less number of generations and iterations time. Unlike the existing algorithm that generates priority factor as chromosome, the proposed algorithm directly generates sequence of solution as chromosome. As a result, the proposed algorithm is capable of generating optimal solution with smaller number of generations and iteration time compare to existing algorithm.

Keywords: traveling salesman problem, sequencing, genetic algorithm, precedence constraint

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Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

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A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms

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Authors: Kevin Spencer G. Anglim, Zhenyu Zhang, Qingbin Gao

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Reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) present a more environmentally-friendly approach to accessing space when compared to traditional launch vehicles that are discarded after each flight. This paper studies the recyclable nature of RLVs by presenting a solution method for determining minimum-fuel optimal trajectories using principles from optimal control theory and particle swarm optimization (PSO). This problem is formulated as a minimum-landing error powered descent problem where it is desired to move the RLV from a fixed set of initial conditions to three different sets of terminal conditions. However, unlike other powered descent studies, this paper considers the highly nonlinear effects caused by atmospheric drag, which are often ignored for studies on the Moon or on Mars. Rather than optimizing the controls directly, the throttle control is assumed to be bang-off-bang with a predetermined thrust direction for each phase of flight. The PSO method is verified in a one-dimensional comparison study, and it is then applied to the two-dimensional cases, the results of which are illustrated.

Keywords: minimum-fuel optimal trajectory, particle swarm optimization, reusable rocket, SpaceX

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Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez

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In this paper, we treat a model that falls in the area of protecting targeted systems from intelligent threats including terrorism. We introduce the concept of system survivability, in the context of continuous attacks, as the probability that a system under attack will continue operation up to some fixed time t. We define a constant attack rate (CAR) process as an attack on a targeted system that follows an exponential distribution. We consider the superposition of several CAR processes. From the attacker side, we determine the optimal attack strategy that minimizes the system survivability. We also determine the optimal strengthening strategy that maximizes the system survivability under limited defensive resources. We use operations research techniques to identify optimal strategies of each antagonist. Our results may be used as interesting starting points to develop realistic protection strategies against intentional attacks.

Keywords: CAR processes, defense/attack strategies, exponential failure, survivability

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Authors: H. Tai Pham, Bae Wisup, Sungmin Jung, Ivan Efriza, Ratna Widyaningsih, Byung Un Min

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The middle-phase-microemulsion in Alkaline-Surfactant-Polymer (ASP) solution and oil play important roles in the success of an ASP flooding process. The high quality microemulsion phase has ultralow interfacial tensions and it can increase oil recovery. The research used optimal experimental design and response-surface-methodology to predict the optimum concentration of chemicals in ASP solution for maximum microemulsion quality. Secondly, this optimal ASP formulation was implemented in core flooding test to investigate the effective injection volume. As the results, the optimum concentration of surfactants in the ASP solution is 0.57 wt.% and the highest effective injection volume is 19.33% pore volume.

Keywords: optimize, ASP, response surface methodology, solubilization ratio

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Authors: Georgios A. Fragkiadakis, Antonia Psaroudaki, Theodora Mouratidou, Eirini Sfakianaki

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Research: The nutritional benefits of eating carob are many and important for the human organism, as it is a food rich in carbohydrates and low in fat and contains multiple nutrients, making it a "superfood". Within the framework of the project "Actions for the optimal utilization of the potential of carob in the Region of Crete" which is financed-supervised by the Region of Crete, a second-grade local self-government authority, with the collaboration of the University of Crete and of the Hellenic Mediterranean University, an online survey was carried out with the aim of evaluating dietary habits and views related to the consumption of carob and its products in a sample of local residents. Results and Conclusions: Of the 351 participants, 259 (73.8%) stated that they consume carob products, and 26.2% stated that they do not. Difficult access and limited availability of carob-food products (33.7%), high price (20.7%), and difficulties of use and preparation (15.2%) were cited as the main reasons for non-consumption. Other reasons, to a lesser extent, concern the taste, especially the sweet aftertaste of some products. Concerning the behavior and eating habits related to the consumption of carob products (n=259), 57.9% of the sample report that they buy carob products "sometimes"; 21.2% report "often"; 19.7% report "rarely", and a very small percentage of 1.2% report "constantly". With reference to the reasons for choosing carob products, the participants mention the main reason for their high nutritional value (51.7%), followed by 32.4% of nutritional claims and health claims, and the organoleptic characteristics (10.8%). Other positive factors are the final price of the product, the ease of use, and the respect for the local environment and producers. Some bakery products show the highest percentage of consumption among carob-food consumers, mainly in the form of rusks (86.1%) and breadsticks (70.3%). They are followed, in descending order, by bread (63.3%), toast (52.1%), and flour (50.6%). More specifically: 40.5% consume carob rusks less than once a month; 22% consume less than once a week; up to twice a week 12.4%; 6.6%, consume rusks 3 to 4 times a week, and daily 3.9%. It is worth mentioning that a high percentage of consumers of carob products recommend the consumption to their family and friends. Only a small percentage, in the range of 5%, does not recommend the consumption of carob products in their close family/social circle. The main motivating factors for the consumption of carob products are the expected effects they may have on health (74.1%) and the organoleptic characteristics with a percentage of 21.6%.

Keywords: food, consumer, preferences, carob, Crete, Greece

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Authors: Zichun Guo

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Guangzhou's housing prices have declined for a long time compared with the other three major cities. As Guangzhou's housing price ladder increases, the influencing factors of housing prices have gradually attracted attention. This article attempts to use housing price data and POI data and uses the Kriging spatial interpolation method and the geographically weighted regression model to explore the distribution of housing prices and the impact of factors. Caused, especially located in Huadu District and the city center. The response is mainly obvious in surrounding areas, which may be related to housing positioning. Economic POIs close to the city center have stronger responses. The factors affecting housing prices provide this method, which is conducive to the management and macro-control of relevant departments, better meets the demand for home purchases, and realizes financing-side reforms.

Keywords: housing prices, spatial heterogeneity, Guangzhou, POI

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Authors: Setya Winarno

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Due to abundant Merapi volcanic sand in Yogyakarta City, many local people have utilized it for mass production of concrete blocks through mini plants although their products are low in quality. This paper presents a practice model for quality improvement in this situation in order to supply the current customer interest in good quality of construction material. The method of this research was to investigate a techno economic evaluation through laboratory test and interview. Samples of twenty existing concrete blocks made by local people had only 19.4 kg/cm2 in average compression strength which was lower than the minimum Indonesian standard of 25 kg/cm2. Through repeat testing in laboratory for fulfilling the standard, the concrete mix design of water cement ratio should not be more than 0.64 by weight basis. The proportion of sand as aggregate content should not be more than 9 parts to 1 part by volume of Portland cement. Considering the production cost, the basic price was Rp 1,820 for each concrete block, comparing to Rp 2,000 as a normal competitive market price. At last, the model describes (a) maximum water cement ratio is 0.64, (b) maximum proportion of sand and cement is 1:9, (c) the basic price is about Rp. 1,820.00 and (d) strategies to win the competitive market on mass production of concrete blocks are focus in quality, building relationships with consumer, rapid respond to customer need, continuous innovation by product diversification, promotion in social media, and strict financial management.

Keywords: concrete block, good quality, improvement model, diversification

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Authors: Wen Liang Chang

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In this study, the optimal replacement time and number of preventive maintenance (PM) actions were investigated for a second-hand device. Suppose that a user intends to use a second-hand device for manufacturing products, and that the device is replaced with a new one. Any device failure is rectified through minimal repair, thereby incurring a fixed repair cost to the user. If the new device fails within the FRW period, minimal repair is performed at no cost to the user. After the FRW expires, a failed device is repaired and the cost of repair is incurred by the user. In this study, two profit models were developed, and the optimal replacement time and number of PM actions were determined to maximize profits. Finally, the influence of the optimal replacement time and number of PM actions were elaborated on, using numerical examples.

Keywords: second-hand device, preventive maintenance, replacement time, device failure

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Virgil Miranda, Gissele Mosqueda, Pablo Delgado, Yimesker Yihun

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Muscular fatigue affects the muscle activation that is needed for producing the desired clinical outcome. Integrating optimal muscle relaxation periods into a variety of health care rehabilitation protocols is important to maximize the efficiency of the therapy. In this study, four muscle relaxation periods (30, 60, 90, and 120 seconds) and their effectiveness in producing consistent muscle activation of the muscle biceps brachii between sets of elbow flexion and extension task was investigated among a sample of 10 subjects with no disabilities. The same resting periods were then utilized in a controlled exoskeleton-based exercise for a sample size of 5 subjects and have shown similar results. On average, the muscle activity of the biceps brachii decreased by 0.3% when rested for 30 seconds, and it increased by 1.25%, 0.76%, and 0.82% when using muscle relaxation periods of 60, 90, and 120 seconds, respectively. The preliminary results suggest that a muscle relaxation period of about 60 seconds is needed for optimal continuous muscle activation within rehabilitation regimens. Robot-based rehabilitation is good to produce repetitive tasks with the right intensity, and knowing the optimal resting period will make the automation more effective.

Keywords: rest intervals, muscle biceps brachii, robot rehabilitation, muscle fatigue

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Authors: Tom D. Gedeon, Ujala Rampaul

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The evaluation of electronic consumer goods are most often done from the perspective of analysing the latest models, comparing their advantages and disadvantages with respect to price. This style of evaluation is often performed by one or a few product experts on a wide range of features that may not be applicable to each user. We instead used a scenario-based approach to evaluate a number of e-readers. The setting is similar to a user who is interested in a new product or technology and has allocated a limited budget. We evaluate the quality and usability of e-readers available within that budget range. This is based on the assumption of a rational market which prices older second hand devices the same as functionally equivalent new devices. We describe our evaluation and comparison of four branded eReaders, as the initial stage of a larger project. The scenario has a range of tasks approximating a busy person who does not bother to read the manual. We found that navigation within books to be the most significant differentiator between the eReaders in our scenario based evaluation process.

Keywords: eReader, scenario based, price comparison, Kindle, Kobo, Nook, Sony, technology adoption

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Authors: Ghazaleh Monazami Tehrani, Zhamak Monazami Tehrani, Raziyeh Hadavand

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Optimal site selection for temporary housing is one of the most important issues in crisis management. In this research, district six of Tehran city with high frequency and geographical distribution of earthquakes has been selected as a case study for positioning temporary housing after a probable earthquake. For achieving this goal this study tries to identify and evaluate distribution of location according to some standards such as compatible and incompatible urban land uses with utility of GIS and AHP. The results of this study show the most susceptible parts of this region in the center. According to the maps, north eastern part of Kordestan, Shaheed Gomnam intersection possesses the highest pixels value in terms of areal extent, therefore these places are recommended as an optimum site location for construction of emergency evacuation base.

Keywords: optimal site selection, temporary housing , crisis management, AHP, GIS

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method with the unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with the unknown probability distribution.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete time systems, probabilistic constraints

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Authors: Muhammad Danish Khan, Imran Naeem, Mudassar Imran

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In this article, we study time-space Fractional Advection-Dispersion (FADE) equation and time-space Fractional Whitham-Broer-Kaup (FWBK) equation that have a significant role in hydrology. We introduce suitable transformations to convert fractional order derivatives to integer order derivatives and as a result these equations transform into Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Then the Lie symmetries and corresponding optimal systems of the resulting PDEs are derived. The symmetry reductions and exact independent solutions based on optimal system are investigated which constitute the exact solutions of original fractional differential equations.

Keywords: modified Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, lie-symmetries, optimal system, invariant solutions

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Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Wafa' Alsharafat, Suhila Farhan Abu-Owida

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Genetic algorithm (GA) is a powerful evolutionary searching technique that is used successfully to solve and optimize problems in different research areas. Genetic Algorithm (GA) considered as one of optimization methods used to solve Travel salesman Problem (TSP). The feasibility of GA in finding a TSP solution is dependent on GA operators; encoding method, population size, termination criteria, in general. In specific, crossover and its probability play a significant role in finding possible solutions for Symmetric TSP (STSP). In addition, the crossover should be determined and enhanced in term reaching optimal or at least near optimal. In this paper, we spot the light on using a modified crossover method called modified sequential constructive crossover and its impact on reaching optimal solution. To justify the relevance of a parameter value in solving the TSP, a set comparative analysis conducted on different crossover methods values.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, crossover, mutation, TSP

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Authors: Engy Adel Mohamed, Yasser Gamal-Eldin Hegazy

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This paper presents a firefly based algorithm for optimal sizing and allocation of distributed generators for profit maximization. Distributed generators in the proposed algorithm are of photovoltaic and combined heat and power technologies. Combined heat and power distributed generators are modeled as voltage controlled nodes while photovoltaic distributed generators are modeled as constant power nodes. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB environment and tested the unbalanced IEEE 37-node feeder. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in optimal selection of distributed generators size and site in order to maximize the total system profit.

Keywords: distributed generators, firefly algorithm, IEEE 37-node feeder, profit maximization

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