Search results for: opening price

Authors: Hidefumi Kawakatsu, Dong Li, Kosuke Kato

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In Japan, meat-type chickens are mainly classified into three categories: (1) Broilers, (2) Branded chickens, and (3) Jidori (Free-range local traditional pedigree chickens). The Jidori chickens are certified by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, whilst, for the Branded chickens, there is no regulation with respect to their breed (genotype) or methods for rearing them. It is, therefore, relatively easy for poultry farmers to introduce Branded than Jidori chickens. The Branded chickens are normally fed a low-calorie diet with ingredients such as herbs, which lengthens their breeding period (compared with that of the Broilers) and increases their market value. In the field of inventory management, fast-growing animals such as broilers are categorised as ameliorating items. To the best of our knowledge, there are no previous studies that have explicitly considered smaller sized poultry farmers with limited breeding areas. This study develops an inventory model for a small sized poultry farmer that produces both the Broilers (Product 1) and the Branded chickens (Product 2) with different amelioration rates. The poultry farmer’s total profit per unit of time is formulated as a function of selling prices by using a price-dependent demand function. The existence of a unique optimal selling price for each product, which maximises the total profit, established. It has also been confirmed through numerical examples that, when the breeding area is fixed, the total profit could increase if the poultry farmer reduced the product quantity of Product 1 to introduce Product 2.

Keywords: amelioration, deterioration, small sized poultry farmers, optimal price

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Authors: Mohsen Akhlaghi, Tahereh Ebrahimi

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Pricing strategy is a vital component in achieving the balance between customer value and business profitability. The aim of this study is to provide insights into the factors, techniques, and approaches involved in pricing decisions. The study utilizes a descriptive approach to discuss various aspects of pricing strategy in marketing, drawing on concepts from market research, consumer psychology, competitive analysis, and adaptability. This approach presents a comprehensive view of pricing decisions. The result of this exploration is a framework that highlights key factors influencing pricing decisions. The study examines how factors such as market positioning, product differentiation, and brand image shape pricing strategies. Additionally, it emphasizes the role of consumer psychology in understanding price elasticity, perceived value, and price-quality associations that influence consumer behavior. Various pricing techniques, including charm pricing, prestige pricing, and bundle pricing, are mentioned as methods to enhance sales by influencing consumer perceptions. The study also underscores the importance of adaptability in responding to market dynamics through regular price monitoring, dynamic pricing, and promotional strategies. It recognizes the role of digital platforms in enabling personalized pricing and dynamic pricing models. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that effective pricing strategies strike a balance between customer value and business profitability, ultimately driving sales, enhancing brand perception, and fostering lasting customer relationships.

Keywords: business, customer benefits, marketing, pricing

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models are dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator which is an extension of the Arellano-Bond model where past values and different transformations of past values of the potentially problematic independent variable are used as instruments together with other instrumental variables. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator augments Arellano–Bond by making an additional assumption that first differences of instrument variables are uncorrelated with the fixed effects. This allows the introduction of more instruments and can dramatically improve efficiency. It builds a system of two equations—the original equation and the transformed one—and is also known as system GMM. In this study, Finnish housing price dynamics were examined empirically by using the Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimation technique together with ordinary OLS. The aim of the analysis was to provide a comparison between conventional fixed-effects panel data models and dynamic panel data models. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator is suitable for this analysis for a number of reasons: It is a general estimator designed for situations with 1) a linear functional relationship; 2) one left-hand-side variable that is dynamic, depending on its own past realizations; 3) independent variables that are not strictly exogenous, meaning they are correlated with past and possibly current realizations of the error; 4) fixed individual effects; and 5) heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation within individuals but not across them. Based on data of 14 Finnish cities over 1988-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were considerable when different models and instrumenting were used. Especially, the use of different instrumental variables caused variation of model estimates together with their statistical significance. This was particularly clear when comparing estimates of OLS with different dynamic panel data models. Estimates provided by dynamic panel data models were more in line with theory of housing price dynamics.

Keywords: dynamic model, fixed effects, panel data, price dynamics

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Alaa Morsy, Youssef Ibrahim

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Earthquake is one of the most catastrophic events, which makes enormous harm to properties and human lives. As a piece of a safe building configuration, reinforced concrete walls are given in structures to decrease horizontal displacements under seismic load. Shear walls are additionally used to oppose the horizontal loads that might be incited by the impact of wind. Reinforced concrete walls in residential buildings might have openings that are required for windows in outside walls or for doors in inside walls or different states of openings due to architectural purposes. The size, position, and area of openings may fluctuate from an engineering perspective. Shear walls can encounter harm around corners of entryways and windows because of advancement of stress concentration under the impact of vertical or horizontal loads. The openings cause a diminishing in shear wall capacity. It might have an unfavorable impact on the stiffness of reinforced concrete wall and on the seismic reaction of structures. Finite Element Method using software package ‘ANSYS ver. 12’ becomes an essential approach in analyzing civil engineering problems numerically. Now we can make various models with different parameters in short time by using ANSYS instead of doing it experimentally, which consumes a lot of time and money. Finite element modeling approach has been conducted to study the effect of opening shape, size and position in RC wall with different thicknesses under axial and lateral static loads. The proposed finite element approach has been verified with experimental programme conducted by the researchers and validated by their variables. A very good correlation has been observed between the model and experimental results including load capacity, failure mode, and lateral displacement. A parametric study is applied to investigate the effect of opening size, shape, position on different reinforced concrete wall thicknesses. The results may be useful for improving existing design models and to be applied in practice, as it satisfies both the architectural and the structural requirements.

Keywords: Ansys, concrete walls, openings, out of plane behavior, seismic, shear wall

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Authors: Badr A. Al-Jehani

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Nowadays, contractor selection is a critical activity of the project owner. Selecting the right contractor is essential to the project manager for the success of the project, and this cab happens by using the proper selecting method. Traditionally, the contractor is being selected based on his offered bid price. This approach focuses only on the price factor and forgetting other essential factors for the success of the project. In this research paper, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used as a decision tool model to select the most appropriate contractor. This decision-making method can help the clients who work in the construction industry to identify contractors who are capable of delivering satisfactory outcomes. Moreover, this research paper provides a case study of selecting the proper contractor among three contractors by using ANP method. The case study identifies and computes the relative weight of the eight criteria and eleven sub-criteria using a questionnaire.

Keywords: contractor selection, project management, decision-making, bidding

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Authors: Mohamud Ali Ibrahim, Ali Bayat, Ali Bolat

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Defoliant spraying is an important link in the mechanized cotton harvest because adequate and uniform spraying can improve defoliation quality and reduce cotton trash content. In defoliant application, application volume and spraying technology are extremely important. In this study, the effectiveness of defoliant application to cotton plant that has come to harvest with two different application volumes and three different types of nozzles with a standard field crop sprayer was determined. Experiments were carried in two phases as field area trials and laboratory analysis. Application rates were 250 l/ha and 400 L/ha, and spraying nozzles were (1) Standard flat fan nozzle (TP8006), (2) Air induction nozzle (AI 11002-VS), and (3) Dual Pattern nozzle (AI307003VP). A tracer (BSF) and defoliant were applied to mature cotton with approximately 60% open bolls and samplings for BSF deposition and spray coverage on the cotton plant were done at two plant height (upper layer, lower layer) of plant. Before and after spraying, bolls open and leaves rate on cotton plants were calculated, and filter papers were used to detect BSF deposition, and water sensitive papers (WSP) were used to measure the coverage rate of spraying methods used. Spectrofluorophotometer was used to detect the amount of tracer deposition on targets, and an image process computer programme was used to measure coverage rate on WSP. In analysis, conclusions showed that air induction nozzle (AI 11002-VS) achieved better results than the dual pattern and standard flat fan nozzles in terms of higher depositions, coverages, and leaf defoliations, and boll opening rates. AI nozzles operating at 250 L/ha application rate provide the highest deposition and coverage rate on applications of the defoliant; in addition, BSF as an indicator of the defoliant used reached on leaf beneath in merely this spray nozzle. After defoliation boll opening rate was 85% on the 7th and 12th days after spraying and falling rate of leaves was 76% at application rate of 250 L/ha with air induction (AI1102) nozzle.

Keywords: cotton defoliant, air induction nozzle, dual pattern nozzle, standard flat fan nozzle, coverage rate, spray deposition, boll opening rate, leaves falling rate

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Authors: Amine Harrane, Mahmoud Belalia

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During the last decade, polymer layered silicate nanocomposites have received increasing attention from scientists and industrial researchers because they generally exhibit greatly improved mechanical, thermal, barrier and flame-retardant properties at low clay content in comparison with unfilled polymers or more conventional micro composites. Poly(ε-caprolactone) (PCL)-layered silicate nanocomposites have the advantage of adding biocompatibility and biodegradability to the traditional properties of nanocomposites. They can be prepared by in situ ring-opening polymerization of ε-caprolactone using a conventional initiator to induce polymerization in the presence of an organophilic clay, such as organomodified montmorillonite. Messersmith and Giannelis used montmorillonite exchanged with protonated 12-amino dodecanoic acid and Cr3+ exchanged fluorohectorite, a synthetic mica type of silicate. Sn-based catalysts such as tin (II) octoate and dibutyltin (IV) dimethoxide have been reported to efficiently promote the polymerization of ε-caprolactone in the presence of organomodified clays. In this work, we have used an alternative method to prepare PCL/montmorillonite nanocomposites. The cationic polymerization of ε-caprolactone was initiated directly by Maghnite-TOA, organomodified montmorillonite clay, to produce nanocomposites (Scheme 1). Resulted from nanocomposites were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), force atomic microscopy (AFM) and thermogravimetry.

Keywords: polycaprolactone, polycaprolactone/clay nanocomposites, biodegradables nanocomposites, Maghnite, Insitu polymeriation

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Authors: Mostefa Hamrat, Bensaid Boulekbache, Mohamed Chemrouk, Sofiane Amziane

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The paper presents the results of an experimental work on the flexural behaviour of two types of concrete in terms of the progressive cracking process until failure and the crack opening, and beam deflection, using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) technique. At serviceability limit states, comparisons of the building code equations and the equations developed by some researchers for the short-term deflections and crack widths have been made using the reinforced concrete test beams. The experimental results show that the addition of steel fibers increases the first cracking load and amplify the number of cracks that conducts to a remarkable decreasing in the crack width with an increasing in ductility. This study also shows that there is a good agreement between the deflection values for RC beams predicted by the major codes (Eurocode2, ACI 318, and the CAN/CSA-S806) and the experimental results for beams with steel fibers at service load. The most important added benefit of the DIC technique is that it allows detecting the first crack with a high precision easily measures the crack opening and follows the progressive cracking process until failure of reinforced concrete members.

Keywords: beams, digital image correlation (DIC), deflection, crack width, serviceability, codes provisions

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Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: building energy management, machine learning, operation planning, simulation-based optimization

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Authors: Zichun Guo

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Guangzhou's housing prices have declined for a long time compared with the other three major cities. As Guangzhou's housing price ladder increases, the influencing factors of housing prices have gradually attracted attention. This article attempts to use housing price data and POI data and uses the Kriging spatial interpolation method and the geographically weighted regression model to explore the distribution of housing prices and the impact of factors. Caused, especially located in Huadu District and the city center. The response is mainly obvious in surrounding areas, which may be related to housing positioning. Economic POIs close to the city center have stronger responses. The factors affecting housing prices provide this method, which is conducive to the management and macro-control of relevant departments, better meets the demand for home purchases, and realizes financing-side reforms.

Keywords: housing prices, spatial heterogeneity, Guangzhou, POI

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Authors: Setya Winarno

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Due to abundant Merapi volcanic sand in Yogyakarta City, many local people have utilized it for mass production of concrete blocks through mini plants although their products are low in quality. This paper presents a practice model for quality improvement in this situation in order to supply the current customer interest in good quality of construction material. The method of this research was to investigate a techno economic evaluation through laboratory test and interview. Samples of twenty existing concrete blocks made by local people had only 19.4 kg/cm2 in average compression strength which was lower than the minimum Indonesian standard of 25 kg/cm2. Through repeat testing in laboratory for fulfilling the standard, the concrete mix design of water cement ratio should not be more than 0.64 by weight basis. The proportion of sand as aggregate content should not be more than 9 parts to 1 part by volume of Portland cement. Considering the production cost, the basic price was Rp 1,820 for each concrete block, comparing to Rp 2,000 as a normal competitive market price. At last, the model describes (a) maximum water cement ratio is 0.64, (b) maximum proportion of sand and cement is 1:9, (c) the basic price is about Rp. 1,820.00 and (d) strategies to win the competitive market on mass production of concrete blocks are focus in quality, building relationships with consumer, rapid respond to customer need, continuous innovation by product diversification, promotion in social media, and strict financial management.

Keywords: concrete block, good quality, improvement model, diversification

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Arturs Macanovskis, Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

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Work has three stages. In the first stage was examined pull-out process for steel fiber was embedded into a concrete by one end and was pulled out of concrete under the angle to pulling out force direction. Angle was varied. Length of steel fiber was 26 mm, diameter 0.5 mm. On the obtained force- displacement diagrams were observed jumps. For such mechanical behavior explanation, fiber channel in concrete surface microscopical experimental investigation, using microscope KEYENCE VHX2000, was performed. Surface of fiber channel in concrete matrix after pull-out test (fiber angle to pulling out force direction 70°). At the second stage were obtained diagrams for load- crack opening displacement for breaking homogeneously reinforced and layered fiber concrete prisms (with dimensions 10x10x40 cm) subjected to 4-point bending. After testing was analyzed main crack. On the main crack’s both surfaces were recognized all pulled out fibers their locations, angles to crack surface and lengths of pull-out fibers parts. At the third stage elaborated prediction model for the fiber-concrete beam, failure under bending, using the following data: a) diagrams for fibers pulling out at different angles; b) experimental data about steel-straight fibers locations in the main crack.

Keywords: fiberconcrete, pull-out, fiber channel, layered fiberconcrete

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Authors: Mannal Tariq

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Construction industry is making progress at a high pace. The trend of the world is getting more biased towards the high rise buildings. Deep beams are one of the most common elements in modern construction having small span to depth ratio. Deep beams are mostly used as transfer girders. This experimental study consists of 16 reinforced concrete (RC) deep beams. These beams were divided into two groups; A and B. Groups A and B consist of eight beams each, having 381 mm (15 in) and 457 mm (18 in) depth respectively. Each group was further subdivided into four sub groups each consisting of two identical beams. Each subgroup was comprised of solid/control beam (without opening), opening above neutral axis (NA), at NA and below NA. Except for control beams, all beams with openings were strengthened with carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) vertical strips. These eight groups differ from each other based on depth and location of openings. For testing sake, all beams have been loaded with two symmetrical point loads. All beams have been designed based on strut and tie model concept. The outcome of experimental investigation elaborates the difference in the shear behaviour of deep beams based on depth and location of circular openings variation. 457 mm (18 in) deep beam with openings above NA show the highest strength and 381 mm (15 in) deep beam with openings below NA show the least strength. CFRP sheets played a vital role in increasing the shear capacity of beams.

Keywords: CFRP, deep beams, openings in deep beams, strut and tie modal, shear behaviour

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Authors: Tom D. Gedeon, Ujala Rampaul

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The evaluation of electronic consumer goods are most often done from the perspective of analysing the latest models, comparing their advantages and disadvantages with respect to price. This style of evaluation is often performed by one or a few product experts on a wide range of features that may not be applicable to each user. We instead used a scenario-based approach to evaluate a number of e-readers. The setting is similar to a user who is interested in a new product or technology and has allocated a limited budget. We evaluate the quality and usability of e-readers available within that budget range. This is based on the assumption of a rational market which prices older second hand devices the same as functionally equivalent new devices. We describe our evaluation and comparison of four branded eReaders, as the initial stage of a larger project. The scenario has a range of tasks approximating a busy person who does not bother to read the manual. We found that navigation within books to be the most significant differentiator between the eReaders in our scenario based evaluation process.

Keywords: eReader, scenario based, price comparison, Kindle, Kobo, Nook, Sony, technology adoption

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Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Jakub Bartus

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In general, composite steel and concrete structures present an effective structural solution utilizing full potential of both materials. As they have a numerous advantages on the construction side, they can reduce greatly the overall cost of construction, which is the main objective of the last decade, highlighted by the current economic and social crisis. The study represents not only an analysis of composite beams’ behaviour having web openings but emphasizes the influence of these openings on the total strain distribution at the level of steel bottom flange as well. The major investigation was focused on a change of structural performance with respect to various layouts of openings. Examining this structural modification, an improvement of load carrying capacity of composite beams was a prime object. The study is devided into analytical and numerical part. The analytical part served as an initial step into the design process of composite beam samples, in which optimal dimensions and specific levels of utilization in individual stress states were taken into account. The numerical part covered description of imposed structural issue in a form of a finite element model (FEM) using strut and shell elements accounting for material non-linearities. As an outcome, a number of conclusions were drawn describing and explaining an effect of web opening presence on the structural performance of composite beams.

Keywords: composite beam, web opening, steel flange, totalstrain, finite element analysis

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Authors: Mohamed M. El-heweity, Ahmed Shamel Fahmy, Mostafa Shawky, Ahmed Sherif

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Cold-formed steel (CFS) lipped channel sections are popular as load-bearing members in building structures. These sections are used in the construction industry because of their high strength-to-weight ratio, lightweight, quick production, and ease of construction, fabrication, transportation, and handling. When those cold formed sections with high slenderness ratios are subjected to compression bending, they do not reach failure when reaching their ultimate bending stress, however, they sustain much higher loads due stress re-distribution. Hence, there is a need to study the sectional nominal capacity of CFS lipped channel beams with different web openings subjected to pure bending and uniformly distributed loads. By using finite element (FE) simulations using ANSYS APDL for numerical analysis. The results were verified and compared to previous experimental results. Then a parametric study was conducted and validated FE model to investigate the effect of different openings shapes on their nominal capacities. The results have revealed that CFS sections with hexagonal openings and intermediate notch can resist higher nominal capacities when compared to other sectional openings.

Keywords: cold-formed steel, nominal capacity, finite element, lipped channel beam, numerical study, web opening

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Authors: Algia Hammami, Abdelfatteh Bouri

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In this work, our objective is to study the transmission of volatility between oil and stock markets in developed (USA, Germany, Italy, France and Japan) and emerging countries (Tunisia, Thailand, Brazil, Argentina, and Jordan) for the period 1998-2015. Our methodology consists of analyzing the monthly data by the GARCH-BEKK model to capture the effect in terms of volatility in the variation of the oil price on the different stock market. The empirical results in the emerging countries indicate that the relationships are unidirectional from the stock market to the oil market. For the developed countries, we find that the transmission of volatility is unidirectional from the oil market to stock market. For the USA and Italy, we find no transmission between the two markets. The transmission is bi-directional only in Thailand. Following our estimates, we also noticed that the emerging countries influence almost the same extent as the developed countries, while at the transmission of volatility there a bid difference. The GARCH-BEKK model is more effective than the others versions to minimize the risk of an oil-stock portfolio.

Keywords: GARCH, oil prices, stock market, volatility transmission

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

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Authors: Golamhassan Ghahramani Aghdam, Pedram Bavili Tabrizi

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The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between accounting information and the value of the companies accepted in Tehran Exchange Market. The dependent variable in this research is the value of a company that is measured by price coefficients, and the independent variables are balance sheet information, profit and loss information, cash flow state information, and profit quality characteristics. The profit quality characteristic index is to be related and to be on-time. This research is an application research, and the research population includes all companies that are active in Tehran exchange market. The number of 194 companies was selected by the systematic method as the statistics sample in the period of 2018-2019. The multi-variable linear regression model was used for the hypotheses test. The results show that there is no relationship between accounting information and companies’ value (stock value) that can be due to the lack of efficiency of the investment market and the inability to use the accounting information by investment market activists.

Keywords: accounting information, company value, profit quality characteristics, price coefficient

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Authors: Baoubadi Atozou, Koffi Akakpo

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Since the decade 2000, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat, and soybeans in biofuel production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Thus, prices for these agricultural products are rising in the world market. These cereals are the most important source of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries members’ population. These countries are highly dependent on imports of most of these products. Thereby, rising prices can have an important impact on import levels and consequently on food security in these countries. This study aims to analyze the interrelationship between the prices of these commodities and their volatilities, and their effects on imports of these agricultural products by each WAEMU ’country member. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the GARCH Multivariate model, and the Granger Causality Test are used in this investigation. The results show that import levels are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes as well as their volatility. In the short term as well as in the long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. There is a positive relationship in general between price volatility. And these volatilities have negative effects on the level of imports. The market characteristics affect food security in these countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. The policies makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.

Keywords: price volatility, import of agricultural products, food safety, WAEMU

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Authors: Thepnarintra Praphanphat

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The purposes of this study were to investigate garment industry’s condition, problems, and need for assistance. The population of the study was 504 managers or managing directors of garment establishments finished apparel industrial manager and permission of the Department of Industrial Works 28, Ministry of Industry until January 1, 2012. In determining the sample size with the opening of the Taro Yamane finished at 95% confidence level is ± 5% deviation was 224 managers. Questionnaires were used to collect the data. Percentage, frequency, arithmetic mean, standard deviation, t-test, ANOVA, and LSD were used to analyze the data. It was found that most establishments were of a large size, operated in a form of limited company for more than 15 years most of which produced garments for working women. All investment was made by Thai people. The products were made to order and distributed domestically and internationally. The total sale of the year 2010, 2011, and 2012 was almost the same. With respect to the problems of operating the business, the study indicated, as a whole, by- aspects, and by-items, that they were at a high level. The comparison of the level of problems of operating garment business as classified by general condition showed that problems occurring in business of different sizes were, as a whole, not different. In taking aspects into consideration, it was found that the level of problem in relation to production was different; medium establishments had more problems in production than those of small and large sizes. According to the by-items analysis, five problems were found different; namely, problems concerning employees, machine maintenance, number of designers, and price competition. Such problems in the medium establishments were at a higher level than those in the small and large establishments. Regarding business age, the examination yielded no differences as a whole, by-aspects, and by-items. The statistical significance level of this study was set at .05.

Keywords: garment industry, garment, fashion, competitive enhancement project

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Authors: E. A. Ojoko, G. B. Umbugadu

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This study aims at describing the expenditure pattern of households on millet, maize and sorghum across income groups in Nasarawa State. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select a sample size of 316 respondents for the study. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was adopted in this study. Results from the study shows that the average household size was five persons with dependency ratio of 52 %, which plays an important role on the household’s expenditure pattern by increasing the household budget share. On the average 82 % were male headed households with an average age of 49 years and 13 years of formal education. Results on expenditure share show that maize has the highest expenditure share of 38 % across the three income groups and that most of the price effects are significantly different from zero at 5 % significant level. This shows that the low price of maize increased its demand as compared to other cereals. Household size and age of household members are major factors affecting the demand for cereals in the study. This agrees with the fact that increased household population (size) will bring about increase consumption. The results on factors influencing preferences for cereal grains reveals that cooking quality and appearance (65.7 %) were the most important factors affecting the demand for maize in the study area. This study recommends that cereal crop production should be prioritized in government policies and farming activities that help to boost food security and alleviate poverty should be subsidized.

Keywords: expenditure pattern, AIDS model, budget share, price cereal grains and consumption

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Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

Abstract:

This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

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Authors: Jakub Bartus, Jaroslav Odrobinak

Abstract:

In general, composite steel and concrete structures present an effective structural solution utilizing the full potential of both materials. As they have numerous advantages on the construction side, they can greatly reduce the overall cost of construction, which has been the main objective of the last decade, highlighted by the current economic and social crisis. The study represents not only an analysis of composite beams’ behavior having web openings but emphasizes the influence of these openings on the total strain distribution at the level of the steel bottom flange as well. The major investigation was focused on a change in structural performance with respect to various layouts of openings. Examining this structural modification, an improvement of load carrying capacity of composite beams was a prime objective. The study is divided into analytical and numerical parts. The analytical part served as an initial step into the design process of composite beam samples, in which optimal dimensions and specific levels of utilization in individual stress states were taken into account. The numerical part covered the discretization of the preset structural issue in the form of a finite element (FE) model using beam and shell elements accounting for material non–linearities. As an outcome, several conclusions were drawn describing and explaining the effect of web opening presence on the structural performance of composite beams.

Keywords: beam, steel flange, total strain, web opening

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Authors: Mohamad H. Atyeh, Ahmad Khaldi

Abstract:

The main objective of this research is to measure the relationship between the Kuwait stock Exchange (KSE) index and its two marketing sectors after the new market classification. The findings of this research are important for Public economic policy makers as they need to know if the new system (new classification) is efficient and to what level, to monitor the markets and intervene with appropriate measures. The data used are the daily index of the whole Kuwaiti market and the daily closing price, number of deals and volume of shares traded of two marketing sectors (consumer goods and consumer services) for the period from the 13th of May 2012 till the 12th of December 2016. The results indicate a positive direct impact of the closing price, volume and deals indexes of the consumer goods and the consumer services companies on the overall KSE index, volume and deals of the Kuwaiti stock market (KSE).

Keywords: correlation, market capitalization, Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE), marketing sectors, stock performance

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 276