Search results for: offshore reliability

Authors: Ahmad Hashim, Zarizi Ab Rahman

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Measurement of body composition via a field method has the most popular instruments which are used to estimate the percentage of body fat. Among the instruments used are the Body Mass Index, Bio Impedance Analysis and Skinfold Test. All three of these instruments do not involve high costs, do not require high technical skills, are mobile, save time, and are suitable for use in large populations. Because all three instruments can estimate the percentage of body fat, but it is important to identify the most appropriate instruments and have high reliability. Hence, this study was conducted to determine the reliability and convergent validity of the instruments. A total of 40 students, males and females aged between 13 and 14 years participated in this study. The study found that the test retest and Pearson correlation coefficient of reliability for the three instruments is very high, r = .99. While the inter class reliability also are at high level with r = .99 for Body Mass Index and Bio Impedance Analysis, r = .96 for Skin fold test. Intra class reliability coefficient for these three instruments is too high for Body Mass Index r = .99, Bio Impedance Analysis r = .97, and Skin fold Test r = .90. However, Standard Error of Measurement value for all three instruments indicates the Body Mass Index is the most appropriate instrument with a mean value of .000672 compared with other instruments. The findings show that the Body Mass Index is an instrument which is the most accurate and reliable in estimating body fat percentage for the population studied.

Keywords: reliability, validity, body mass index, bio impedance analysis and skinfold test

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Alavidoost, Hossein Bozorgian

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Criterion-referenced tests (CRTs) are designed to measure student performance against a fixed set of predetermined criteria or learning standards. The reliability of such tests cannot be based on internal reliability. Threshold loss agreement is one way to calculate the reliability of CRTs. However, the selection of master and non-master in such agreement is determined by the threshold point. The problem is if the threshold point witnesses a minute change, the selection of master and non-master may have a drastic change, leading to the change in reliability results. Therefore, in this study, the Fuzzy logic approach is employed as a remedial procedure for data analysis to obviate the threshold point problem. Forty-one Iranian students were selected; the participants were all between 20 and 30 years old. A quantitative approach was used to address the research questions. In doing so, a quasi-experimental design was utilized since the selection of the participants was not randomized. Based on the Fuzzy logic approach, the threshold point would be more stable during the analysis, resulting in rather constant reliability results and more precise assessment.

Keywords: criterion-referenced tests, threshold loss agreement, threshold point, fuzzy logic approach

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Authors: Hamed Abshari, M. Reza Emami Azadi, Madjid Sadegh Azar

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For studying the overall instability of members of steel structures, there are several methods in which overall buckling and geometrical imperfection effects are considered in analysis. In first section, these methods are compared and ability of software to apply these methods is studied. Buckling loads determined from theoretical methods and software is compared for 2D one bay, one and two stories steel frames. To consider actual condition, buckling loads of three steel frames that have various dimensions are calculated and compared. Also, uncertainties that exist in loading and modeling of structures such as geometrical imperfection, yield stress, and modulus of elasticity in buckling load of 2D framed steel structures have been studied. By performing these uncertainties to each reliability analysis procedures (first-order, second-order, and simulation methods of reliability), one index of reliability from each procedure is determined. These values are studied and compared.

Keywords: buckling, second-order theory, reliability index, steel columns

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Authors: Erika Tatiana Paredes Prada, Diana Marina Camargo Lemos

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Introduction: Recreovía as a public health strategy contributes to encourage the practice and adherence to physical activity (PA) recommendations, by temporarily closing the roads to motorized vehicles. The determination of the PA requires the evaluation of the reliability of the measurement instruments, in order to sustain the continuity and relevance of Recreovía as a community intervention. Objective: Establish the inter-rater reliability of the App for the System for Observing Play and Recreation in Communities (iSOPARC®) in the Recreovía of Bucaramanga, Colombia. Methods: Five trained observers at two observation points on the 2.3 km of the Recreovía (14th Street and 32nd Street) used the App (iSOPARC®), between 08:00 a.m. and 12:00 m. in periods of 20 minutes during a regular Sunday. Reliability analysis was performed using the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC 2.1). Results: A total of 2682 users were observed (43.6 % women) in 7 observations. ICC showed a range between 0.96 and 0.99 for the PA level and ICC between 0.95 and 0.99 for age group for the two observation points. Conclusion: The reliability found for the iSOPARC® guarantees the consecutive measurement of the PA level at the Recreovía, which will allow measuring it is effectiveness in the medium and long term, as a community intervention strategy.

Keywords: environment, observation, physical activity, recreation, reliability

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang, Zhi-Chao Zhang, Georgiana Duarte

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The Chinese version of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) is the one of the Achenbach systems of empirically based assessment (ASEBA) scales, by which behavioral and emotional problems of early adolescents were examined. In order to further understand the robustness of the scale, its reliability has been examined. CBCL consists of 8 problems to measure internalizing, externalizing and social problems. In internalizing problem, there are Anxious, Withdrawn and Somatic Complaints. In this study, as an example, we only examined the anxious aspect which consisted of 13 questions. Cronbach alpha and factor analysis methods were used to examine the reliability of the scale. The result indicated that Cronbach alpha value was above 0.80.

Keywords: anxious/depressed problems, ASEBA, CBCL, Cronbach Alpha, reliability

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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One of the most important factors affecting power plant performance is the reliability of the turbine units operated under different conditions. Reliability directly affects plant availability and performance. Therefore, it is very important to be able to analyze turbine units, as well as power plant system reliability and availability under various operational conditions. In this paper, data related to power station failures are collected and analyzed in detail for all power stations in the state of Kuwait. Failures are characterized and categorized. Reliabilities of various power plants are analyzed and availabilities are quantified. Based on calculated availabilities of all installed power plants, actual power output is estimated. Furthermore, based on the past 15 years of data, power consumption trend is determined and the demand for power in the future is forecasted. Estimated power output is compared to the forecasted demand in order to determine the need for future capacity expansion.

Keywords: power plants, reliability, availability, capacity, preventive maintenance, forecasting

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Authors: Paul Dallyn, Ashraf El-Hamalawi, Alessandro Palmeri, Bob Knight

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In order to better understand the long term implications of the grout wear failure mode in large-diameter plain-sided grouted connections, a numerical model has been developed and calibrated that can take advantage of existing operational plant data to predict the wear accumulation for the actual load conditions experienced over a given period, thus limiting the need for expensive monitoring systems. This model has been derived and calibrated based on site structural condition monitoring (SCM) data and supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA) data for two operational wind turbine generator substructures afflicted with this challenge, along with experimentally derived wear rates.

Keywords: grouted connection, numerical model, offshore structure, wear, wind energy

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Authors: Alok Khaware, Vinay Kumar Gupta, Jean Noel Pederzani

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Lifeboat launching from marine vessel or offshore platform is one of the important areas of research in offshore applications. With the advancement of computational fluid dynamic simulation (CFD) technology to solve fluid induced motions coupled with Six Degree of Freedom (6DOF), rigid body dynamics solver, it is now possible to predict the motion of the lifeboat precisely in different challenging conditions. Traditionally dynamic remeshing approach is used to solve this kind of problems, but remeshing approach has some bottlenecks to control good quality mesh in transient moving mesh cases. In the present study, an overset method with higher-order interpolation is used to simulate a lifeboat launched from an offshore platform into calm water, and volume of fluid (VOF) method is used to track free surface. Overset mesh consists of a set of overlapping component meshes, which allows complex geometries to be meshed with lesser effort. Good quality mesh with local refinement is generated at the beginning of the simulation and stay unchanged throughout the simulation. Overset mesh accuracy depends on the precise interpolation technique; the present study includes a robust and accurate least square interpolation method and results obtained with overset mesh shows good agreement with experiment.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, free surface flow, lifeboat launching, overset mesh, volume of fluid

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, combined approach, point estimate method, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Abdolghader Pourali, Mohammad V. Malakooti, Muhammad Hussein Yektaie

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A mobile payment system in mobile e-commerce generally have high security so that the user can trust it for doing business deals, sales, paying financial transactions, etc. in the mobile payment system. Since an architecture or payment model in e-commerce only shows the way of interaction and collaboration among users and mortgagers and does not present any evaluation of effectiveness and confidence about financial transactions to stakeholders. In this paper, we try to present a detailed assessment of the reliability of a mobile payment model in the mobile e-commerce using formal models and colored Petri nets. Finally, we demonstrate that the reliability of this system has high value (case study: a secure payment model in mobile commerce.

Keywords: reliability, colored Petri net, assessment, payment models, m-commerce

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Authors: N. M. M. Ammar, S. M. Mustaqim, N. M. Nadzir

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The most important problem occurs on oil spills in sea water is to reduce the oil spills size. This study deals with the development of high pressurized nozzle using dispersion method for oil leakage in offshore. 3D numerical simulation results were obtained using ANSYS Fluent 13.0 code and correlate with the experimental data for validation. This paper studies the contribution of the process on flow speed and pressure of the flow from two different geometrical designs of nozzles and to generate a spray pattern suitable for dispersant application. Factor of size distribution of droplets generated by the nozzle is calculated using pressures ranging from 2 to 6 bars. Results obtain from both analyses shows a significant spray pattern and flow distribution as well as distance. Results also show a significant contribution on the effect of oil leakage in terms of the diameter of the oil spills break up.

Keywords: arc nozzle, CFD simulation, droplets, oil spills

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Authors: Roswati Md. Amin, Nurul Asmera Mudiman, Muhammad Faisal Abd. Rahman, Md-Suffian Idris, Noor Hazwani Mohd Azmi

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Distribution of picophytoplankton from two genera, Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus at the surface water (0.5m) were observed from coastal to offshore area of the southeastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia, for a six day cruise in August 2014 during SouthWest monsoon. The picophytoplankton was divided into two different size fractions (0.7-2.7μm and <0.7 μm) by filtering through GF/D (2.7 μm) and GF/F (0.7 μm) filter papers and counted by using flow cytometer. Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus contribute higher at 0.7-2.7μm size range (ca. 90% and 95%, respectively) compared to <0.7 μm (ca. 10% and 5%, respectively). Synechococcus (>52%) dominated the total picophytoplankton compared to Prochlorococcus (<26%) for both size fractions in southeastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Total density (<2.7 μm) of Synechococcus was ranging between 1.72 x104 and 12.57 x104 cells ml-1, while Prochlorococcus varied from 1.50 x104 to 8.62 x104. Both Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus abundance showed a decreasing trend from coastal to offshore.

Keywords: Peninsular Malaysia, prochlorococcus, South China Sea, synechococcus

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Authors: Christian H. Girsang, M. Razi B. Mansoor, Noorizal N. Huang

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An offshore platform was installed in 1977 at about 260km offshore West Malaysia at the water depth of 73.6m. Twelve (12) piles were installed with four (4) are skirt piles. The piles have 1.219m outside diameter and wall thickness of 31mm and were driven to 109m below seabed. Deterministic analyses of the pile capacity under axial loading were conducted using the current API (American Petroleum Institute) method and the four (4) CPT-based methods: the ICP (Imperial College Pile)-method, the NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute)-Method, the UWA (University of Western Australia)-method and the Fugro-method. A statistical analysis of the model uncertainty associated with each pile capacity method was performed. There were two (2) piles analysed: Pile 1 and piles other than Pile 1, where Pile 1 is the pile that was most affected by shallow gas problems. Using the mean estimate of soil properties, the five (5) methods used for deterministic estimation of axial pile capacity in compression predict an axial capacity from 28 to 42MN for Pile 1 and 32 to 49MN for piles other than Pile 1. These values refer to the static capacity shortly after pile installation. They do not include the effects of cyclic loading during the design storm or time after installation on the axial pile capacity. On average, the axial pile capacity is expected to have increased by about 40% because of ageing since the installation of the platform in 1977. On the other hand, the cyclic loading effects during the design storm may reduce the axial capacity of the piles by around 25%. The study concluded that all piles have sufficient safety factor when the pile aging and cyclic loading effect are considered, as all safety factors are above 2.0 for maximum operating and storm loads.

Keywords: axial capacity, cyclic loading, pile ageing, shallow gas

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Authors: Essam Amerian

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The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of improving waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and visceral fat components on the health of shift workers in an offshore petrochemical company. A total of 100 male shift workers participated in the study, with an average age of 40.5 years and an average BMI of 28.2 kg/m². The study employed a randomized controlled trial design, with participants assigned to either an intervention group or a control group. The intervention group received a 12-week program that included dietary counseling, physical activity recommendations, and stress management techniques. The control group received no intervention. The outcomes measured were changes in WHR, visceral fat components, blood pressure, and lipid profile. The results showed that the intervention group had a statistically significant improvement in WHR (p<0.001) and visceral fat components (p<0.001) compared to the control group. Furthermore, there were statistically significant improvements in systolic blood pressure (p=0.015) and total cholesterol (p=0.034) in the intervention group compared to the control group. These findings suggest that implementing a 12-week program that includes dietary counseling, physical activity recommendations, and stress management techniques can effectively improve WHR, visceral fat components, and cardiovascular health among shift workers in an offshore petrochemical company.

Keywords: body composition, waist-hip-ratio, visceral fat, shift worker, work efficiency

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Authors: Alireza Alesaadi

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Reliability analysis is a powerful method for determining the weak points of the electrical networks. In designing of electrical network, it is tried to design the most reliable network with minimal system shutting down, but it is usually associated with increasing the cost. In this paper, using adaptive genetic algorithm, a method was presented that provides the most reliable system with a certain economical cost. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a sample network and results will be analyzed.

Keywords: reliability, adaptive genetic algorithm, electrical network, communication engineering

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Authors: Adamantini Loukodimou, David Weston, Shiladitya Paul

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Offshore structures are subjected to harsh environments. It is documented that carbon steel needs protection from corrosion. The combined effect of UV radiation, seawater splash, and fluctuating temperatures diminish the integrity of these structures. In addition, the possibility of damage caused by floating ice, seaborne debris, and maintenance boats make them even more vulnerable. Their inspection and maintenance when far out in the sea are difficult, risky, and expensive. The most known method of mitigating corrosion of offshore structures is the use of cathodic protection. There are several zones in an offshore wind turbine. In the atmospheric zone, due to the lack of a continuous electrolyte (seawater) layer between the structure and the anode at all times, this method proves inefficient. Thus, the use of protective coatings becomes indispensable. This research focuses on the atmospheric zone. The conversion of commercially available and conventional paint (epoxy) system to an autonomous self-healing paint system via the addition of suitable encapsulated healing agents and catalyst is investigated in this work. These coating systems, which can self-heal when damaged, can provide a cost-effective engineering solution to corrosion and related problems. When the damage of the paint coating occurs, the microcapsules are designed to rupture and release the self-healing liquid (monomer), which then will react in the presence of the catalyst and solidify (polymerization), resulting in healing. The catalyst should be compatible with the system because otherwise, the self-healing process will not occur. The carbon steel substrate will be exposed to a corrosive environment, so the use of a sacrificial layer of Zn is also investigated. More specifically, the first layer of this new coating system will be TSZA (Thermally Sprayed Zn85/Al15) and will be applied on carbon steel samples with dimensions 100 x 150 mm after being blasted with alumina (size F24) as part of the surface preparation. Based on the literature, it corrodes readily, so one additional paint layer enriched with microcapsules will be added. Also, the reaction and the curing time are of high importance in order for this bilayer system of coating to work successfully. For the first experiments, polystyrene microcapsules loaded with 3-octanoyltio-1-propyltriethoxysilane were conducted. Electrochemical experiments such as Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) confirmed the corrosion inhibiting properties of the silane. The diameter of the microcapsules was about 150-200 microns. Further experiments were conducted with different reagents and methods in order to obtain diameters of about 50 microns, and their self-healing properties were tested in synthetic seawater using electrochemical techniques. The use of combined paint/electrodeposited coatings allows for further novel development of composite coating systems. The potential for the application of these coatings in offshore structures will be discussed.

Keywords: corrosion mitigation, microcapsules, offshore wind turbines, self-healing

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

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Complex Life Support Systems (LSS) are used in all large commercial and public aquariums in order to keep the fish alive. Reliabilities of individual equipment, as well as the complete system, are extremely important and critical since the life and safety of important fish depend on these life support systems. Failure of some critical device or equipment, which do not have redundancy, results in negative consequences and affects life support as a whole. In this paper, we have considered a life support system in a large public aquarium in Kuwait Scientific Center and presented a procedure and analysis to show how the reliability of such systems can be estimated by using appropriate tools and collected data. We have also proposed possible improvements for systems reliability. In particular, addition of parallel components and spare parts are considered and the numbers of spare parts needed for each component to achieve a required reliability during specified lead time are calculated. The results show that significant improvements in system reliability can be achieved by operating some LSS components in parallel and having certain numbers of spares available in the spare parts inventories. The procedures and the results presented in this paper are expected to be useful for aquarium engineers and maintenance managers dealing with LSS.

Keywords: life support systems, aquariums, reliability, failures, availability, spare parts

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: initial cost, life-cycle cost, maintenance cost, reliability

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Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

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Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium-ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Chitaranjan Sharma

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The present paper deals with the analysis of a fuel supply system in an automobile engine of a four wheeler which is having both the option of fuel i.e. PETROL and CNG. Since CNG is cheaper than petrol so the priority is given to consume CNG as compared to petrol. An automatic switch is used to start petrol supply at the time of failure of CNG supply. Using regenerative point technique with Markov renewal process, the reliability characteristics which are useful to system designers are obtained.

Keywords: reliability, redundancy, repair time, transition, probability, regenerative points, markov renewal, process

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Authors: Victor Igwemezie, Ali Mehmanparast

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The correct knowledge of corrosion fatigue mechanism in marine steel is very important. This is because it enables the design, selection, and use of steels for offshore applications. It also supports realistic corrosion fatigue life prediction of marine structures. A study has been conducted to increase the understanding of corrosion fatigue mechanism in marine steels. The materials investigated are normalized and advanced S355 Thermomechanical control process (TMCP) steels commonly used in the design of offshore wind turbine support structures. The experimental study was carried out by conducting corrosion fatigue tests under conditions pertinent to offshore wind turbine operations, using the state of the art facilities. A careful microstructural study of the crack growth path was conducted using metallurgical optical microscope (OM), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (EDX). The test was conducted on three subgrades of S355 steel: S355J2+N, S355G8+M and S355G10+M and the data compared with similar studies in the literature. The result shows that the ferrite-pearlite morphology primarily controls the corrosion-fatigue crack growth path in marine steels. A corrosion fatigue mechanism which relies on the hydrogen embrittlement of the grain boundaries and pearlite phase is used to explain the crack propagation behaviour. The crack growth trend in the Paris region of the da/dN vs. ΔK curve is used to explain the dependency of the corrosion-fatigue crack growth rate on the ferrite-pearlite morphology.

Keywords: corrosion-fatigue mechanism, fatigue crack growth rate, ferritic-pearlitic steel, microstructure, phase morphology

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Authors: Sajjad Asefi, Hossein Afrakhte

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This paper presents the evaluation of reliability indices of an electrical distribution system using Monte Carlo simulation technique accounting Time To Switch (TTS) for each section. In this paper, the distribution system has been assumed by accounting random repair time omission. For simplicity, we have assumed the reliability analysis to be based on exponential law. Each segment has a specified rate of failure (λ) and repair time (r) which will give us the mean up time and mean down time of each section in distribution system. After calculating the modified mean up time (MUT) in years, mean down time (MDT) in hours and unavailability (U) in h/year, TTS have been added to the time which the system is not available, i.e. MDT. In this paper, we have assumed the TTS to be a random variable with Log-Normal distribution.

Keywords: distribution system, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, repair time, time to switch (TTS)

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Authors: Somayyeh Karimiyan

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To evaluate the seismic vulnerability of vital offshore structures with the highest possible precision, Nonlinear Time History Analyses (NLTHA), is the most reliable method. However, since it is very time-consuming, a quick procedure is greatly desired. This paper presents a quick method by combining the Push Over Analysis (POA) and the NLTHA. The POA is preformed first to recognize the more critical members, and then the NLTHA is performed to evaluate more precisely the critical members’ vulnerability. The proposed method has been applied to jacket type structure. Results show that combining POA and NLTHA is a reliable seismic evaluation method, and also that none of the earthquake characteristics alone, can be a dominant factor in vulnerability evaluation.

Keywords: jacket structure, seismic evaluation, push-over and nonlinear time history analyses, critical members

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Authors: Yong-Jun Kim, Jae-Hyun Ro, Chang-Bin Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Because current wireless communication requires high reliability in a limited bandwidth environment, this paper proposes the variable modulation scheme based on the codebook. The variable modulation scheme adjusts transmission power using the codebook in accordance with hannel state. Also, if the codebook is composed of many bits, the reliability is more improved by the proposed scheme. The simulation results show that the performance of proposed scheme has better reliability than the the performance of conventional scheme.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, variable modulation, codebook, channel state

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Authors: Nipun Manirajan, Heeralal Gargama, Sushil Guhe, Manoj Prabhakaran

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In railway industry, train sets are designed based on contractual requirements (mission profile), where reliability targets are measured in terms of mean distance between failures (MDBF). However, during the beginning of revenue services, trains do not achieve the designed mission profile distance (mileage) within the timeframe due to infrastructure constraints, scarcity of commuters or other operational challenges thereby not respecting the original design inputs. Since trains do not run sufficiently and do not achieve the designed mileage within the specified time, car builder has a risk of not achieving the contractual MDBF target. This paper proposes a constant failure rate based model to deal with the situations where mileage accumulation is not a part of the design mission profile. The model provides appropriate MDBF target to be demonstrated based on actual accumulated mileage. A case study of rolling stock running in the field is undertaken to analyze the failure data and MDBF target demonstration during low mileage accumulation. The results of case study prove that with the proposed method, reliability targets are achieved under low mileage accumulation.

Keywords: mean distance between failures, mileage-based reliability, reliability target appropriations, rolling stock reliability

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Authors: Hasan Keshavarzian, Tayebeh Nesari

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Bolted rail joint is one of the most vulnerable areas in railway track. A comprehensive approach was developed for studying the reliability of fatigue crack initiation of railroad bolt hole under random axle loads and random material properties. The operation condition was also considered as stochastic variables. In order to obtain the comprehensive probability model of fatigue crack initiation life prediction in railroad bolt hole, we used FEM, response surface method (RSM), and reliability analysis. Combined energy-density based and critical plane based fatigue concept is used for the fatigue crack prediction. The dynamic loads were calculated according to the axle load, speed, and track properties. The results show that axle load is most sensitive parameter compared to Poisson’s ratio in fatigue crack initiation life. Also, the reliability index decreases slowly due to high cycle fatigue regime in this area.

Keywords: rail-wheel tribology, rolling contact mechanic, finite element modeling, reliability analysis

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Authors: Marda Vidrianto, Tania Surya Utami

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Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) is an artificial lift of choice to produce oil on Offshore Java Sea. It is selected based on the production rate capacity and running life expectation. ESP performance in a mature field is highly affected by oil well conditions. The presence of sand, scale, gas, and low influx will create unstable ESP operation hence lowering the run life expectation and system efficiency. This paper reviews the current energy usage and efficiency on every part of the ESP system. The hydraulic and electrical losses, as well as system efficiency for each well, are calculated to identify energy losses and the possibility for improvement. It is shown that high back pressure on the system and low-efficiency pump are the major contributors to energy losses. It was found that optimized production rate and the use of advanced technology on pump and motor unit could improve energy efficiency.

Keywords: advance technology, energy efficiency, ESP, mature field, production rate

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Authors: Waled A. Dawoud, Abdelazim M. Negm, Nasser M. Saleh

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Offshore piling generates underwater sound at level high enough to cause physical damage or hearing impairment to the marine mammals. Several methods can be used to mitigate the effect of underwater noise from offshore pile driving on marine mammals which can be divided into three main approaches. The first approach is to keep the mammal out of the high-risk area by using aversive sound waves produced by acoustic mitigation devices such as playing-back of mammal's natural predator vocalization, alarm or distress sounds, and anthropogenic sound. The second approach is to reduce the amount of underwater noise from pile driving using noise mitigation techniques such as bubble curtains, isolation casing, and hydro-sound dampers. The third approach is to eliminate the overlap of underwater waves by using prolonged construction process. To investigate the effectiveness of different noise mitigation methods; a pile driven with 235 kJ rated energy diesel hammer near Jeddah Coast, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was used. Using empirical sound exposure model based on Red Sea characteristics and limits of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; it was found that the aversive sound waves should extend to 1.8 km around the pile location. Bubble curtains can reduce the behavioral disturbance area up to 28%; temporary threshold shift up to 36%; permanent threshold shift up to 50%; and physical injury up to 70%. Isolation casing can reduce the behavioral disturbance range up to 12%; temporary threshold shift up to 21%; permanent threshold shift up to 29%; and physical injury up to 46%. Hydro-sound dampers efficiency depends mainly on the used technology and it can reduce the behavioral disturbance range from 10% to 33%; temporary threshold shift from 18% to 25%; permanent threshold shift from 32% to 50%; and physical injury from 46% to 60%. To prolong the construction process, it was found that the single pile construction, use of soft start, and keep time between two successive hammer strikes more than 3 seconds are the most effective techniques.

Keywords: offshore pile driving, sound propagation models, noise effects on marine mammals, Underwater noise mitigation

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Authors: Jin-Qu Chen, Jie Liu, Yong Yin, Zi-Qi Ju, Yu-Yao Wu

Abstract:

Increase in travel fare and station’s failure will have huge impact on passengers’ travel. The Urban Rail Transit (URT) station’s accessibility reliability under increasing travel fare and station failure are analyzed in this paper. Firstly, the passenger’s travel path is resumed based on stochastic user equilibrium and Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. Secondly, calculating station’s importance by combining LeaderRank algorithm and Ratio of Station Affected Passenger Volume (RSAPV), and then the station’s accessibility evaluation indicators are proposed based on the analysis of passenger’s travel characteristic. Thirdly, station’s accessibility under different scenarios are measured and rate of accessibility change is proposed as station’s accessibility reliability indicator. Finally, the accessibility of Hangzhou metro stations is analyzed by the formulated models. The result shows that Jinjiang station and Liangzhu station are the most important and convenient station in the Hangzhou metro, respectively. Station failure and increase in travel fare and station failure have huge impact on station’s accessibility, except for increase in travel fare. Stations in Hangzhou metro Line 1 have relatively worse accessibility reliability and Fengqi Road station’s accessibility reliability is weakest. For Hangzhou metro operational department, constructing new metro line around Line 1 and protecting Line 1’s station preferentially can effective improve the accessibility reliability of Hangzhou metro.

Keywords: automatic fare collection data, AFC, station’s accessibility reliability, stochastic user equilibrium, urban rail transit, URT

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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