Search results for: maximum likelihood estimators

Authors: Qurrat Ul Ain Farooq, Misha Arshad, Malik Abid Mehmood

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The experiment under discussion was carried out to check the effect of different concentrations of sucrose (2%, 4%, 6%), CuSO4 (200ppm, 300ppm, 400 ppm), GA3 (25ppm, 50ppm, 75 ppm), and combinations of sucrose and GA3 (2% +25 ppm), (4%+50 ppm), (6%+75 ppm) on the carnation cut flower. Visual symptoms of flower senescence, changes in weight (g) of a flower was observed and recorded by using weight balance. The experiment was laid out according to CRD (Complete Randomized Design) it was two-factor factorial, the software used for the analysis was Statistix. Maximum TSS were found in 6% sucrose + 75 ppm GA3 (8.3 %) followed by CuSO4 400 ppm, 4% sucrose + 50 ppm GA3 and 6% sucrose + 75 ppm GA3. Maximum vase life in term of days was recorded in treatment. CuSO4 400 ppm and 6% sucrose + 75 ppm GA3 (8 days) followed by CuSO4 200 ppm (7.7 days). CuSO4 300 ppm & 6% sucrose + 75 ppm GA3 were at par (7 days). Maximum water uptake was also observed in 6% sucrose + 75 ppm GA3 (56.7 ml) followed by CuSO4 400 ppm (49.7 ml) and 50 ppm GA3 (45 ml). Hence, CuSO4 400 ppm found best in all aspects.

Keywords: carnation, vaselife, GA3, CuSO4, sucrose

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Authors: Zhiqiang Cheng, Qingliang He, Lu Li, Jie Ren

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The safety of pipelines in the condition of frost heave or thaw settlement is necessarily evaluated. A full-scale experiment pipe with the typical structure configuration in station pipeline is constructed, the residual stress is tested with X-ray residual stress device, and the residual stress field of pipe is analyzed. The evolution of pipe strain with pressure in the scope of maximum allowable operation pressure (MAOP) is investigated by both strain gauge and X-ray methods. Load caused by frost heave or thaw settlement is simulated by two ways of lifting jack. The relation of maximum stress of pipe and clearances between supporter and pipe is studied in case of frost heave. The relation of maximum stress of pipe and maximum deformation of pipe on the ground is studied in case of thaw settlement. The study methods and results are valuable for safety assessment of station pipeline according to clearances or deformation in the condition of frost heave or thaw settlement.

Keywords: frost heave, pipeline, stress analysis, thaw settlement

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Yemane Hailu Fissuh, Zhongzhan Zhang

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a systematic observation from a defined time of origin up to certain failure or censor is known as survival data. Survival analysis is a major area of interest in biostatistics and biomedical researches. At the heart of understanding, the most scientific and medical research inquiries lie for a causality analysis. Thus, the main concern of this study is to investigate the causal effect of treatment on survival time conditional to the possibly time-varying covariates. The theory of causality often differs from the simple association between the response variable and predictors. A causal estimation is a scientific concept to compare a pragmatic effect between two or more experimental arms. To evaluate an average treatment effect on survival outcome, the estimating equation was adjusted for time-varying covariates under the semi-parametric transformation models. The proposed model intuitively obtained the consistent estimators for unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. In this article, the proposed method estimated an unbiased average causal effect of treatment on survival time of interest. The modified estimating equations of semiparametric transformation models have the advantage to include the time-varying effect in the model. Finally, the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators proved through the simulation and Stanford heart transplant real data. To this end, the average effect of a treatment on survival time estimated after adjusting for biases raised due to the high correlation of the left-truncation and possibly time-varying covariates. The bias in covariates was restored, by estimating density function for left-truncation. Besides, to relax the independence assumption between failure time and truncation time, the model incorporated the left-truncation variable as a covariate. Moreover, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm iteratively obtained unknown parameters and unspecified monotone transformation functions. To summarize idea, the ratio of cumulative hazards functions between the treated and untreated experimental group has a sense of the average causal effect for the entire population.

Keywords: a modified estimation equation, causal effect, semiparametric transformation models, survival analysis, time-varying covariate

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Authors: Yeonjeong Lee, Kyoung-jae Kim, Youngtae Kim

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This study proposes a novel recommender system that uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user’s preference. The proposed model consists of two steps. In the first step, this study uses logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. Then, this study combines the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. In the second step, this study uses the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. Finally, the system selects customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group and recommends proper products from same or different product groups to them through above two steps. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

Keywords: product recommender system, ensemble technique, association rules, decision tree, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Ghulam Hasan Abbasi, Moazzam Jamil, M. Anwar-Ul-Haq

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Heavy metals are significant pollutants in environment and their toxicity is a problem for survival of living things while Silicon (Si) is one of the most ubiquitous macroelements, performing an essential function in healing plants in response to environmental stresses. A hydroponic experiment was conducted to investigate the role of exogenous application of silicon under cadmium stress in six different maize hybrids with five treatments comprising of control, 7.5 µM Cd + 5 mM Si, 7.5 µM Cd + 10 mM Si, 15 µM Cd + 5 mM Si and 15 µM Cd + 10 mM Si. Results revealed that treatments of plants with 10mM Si application under both 7.5µM Cd and 15 µM Cd stress resulted in maximum improvement in plant morphological attributes (root and shoot length, root and shoot fresh and dry weight, leaf area and relative water contents) and antioxidant enzymes (POD and CAT) relative to 5 mM Si application in all maize hybrids. Results regarding Cd concentrations showed that Cd was more retained in roots followed by shoots and then leaves and maximum reduction in Cd uptake was observed at 10mM Si application. Maize hybrid 6525 showed maximum growth and least concentration of Cd whereas maize hybrid 1543 showed the minimum growth and maximum Cd concentration among all maize hybrids.

Keywords: antioxidant, cadmium, maize, silicon

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Authors: Keven A. Prusak, William F. Christensen, Zack Beddoes

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Background: For more than a decade, the Sport Motivation Scale (SMS) has been used to measure contextual motivation across a variety of sporting and physical education (PE) settings but not without criticism as to its tenability. Consequently, a new version of the sport motivation scale (SMS-II) was created to address certain weakness of the original SMS. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to assess the suitability of the SMS-II in the secondary PE setting. Methods: Three hundred and twenty (204 females, and 116 males; grades 7-9) completed the 18-item, six-subscale SMS-II at the end of a required PE class. Factor means, standard deviations, and correlations were calculated and further examined via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Model parameters were estimated maximum likelihood function. Results: Results indicate that participants held generally positive perceptions toward PE as a context (more so for males than females). Reliability analysis yielded adequate alphas (rα = 0.71 to 0.87, Mα = 0.78) with the exception of the AM subscale (αAM = .64). Correlation analysis indicated some support for the SIMPLEX pattern, but distal ends of the motivation continuum displayed no relationship. CFA yielded robust fit indices to the proposed structure of the SMS-II for PE. A small but significant variance across genders was noted and discussed. Conclusions: In all, the SMS-II suitably accesses PE context-specific motivational indices within Jr. High PE.

Keywords: motivation, self-determination theory, physical education, confirmatory factor analysis

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

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The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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Authors: Ziyu Diao, Yanyan Zhang, Zhentao Liu, Ruidong Yan

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The update frequency of wear profile in main bearing wear prognosis of internal combustion engine plays an important role in the calculation efficiency and accuracy. In order to investigate the appropriate cycle index of the simplified working condition of wear simulation, the main bearing-crankshaft journal friction pair of a diesel engine in service was studied in this paper. The method of multi-body dynamics simulation was used, and the wear prognosis model of the main bearing was established. Several groups of cycle indexes were set up for the wear calculation, and the maximum wear depth and wear profile were compared and analyzed. The results showed that when the cycle index reaches 3, the maximum deviation rate of the maximum wear depth is about 2.8%, and the maximum deviation rate comes to 1.6% when the cycle index reaches 5. This study provides guidance and suggestions for the optimization of wear prognosis by selecting appropriate value of cycle index according to the requirement of calculation cost and accuracy of the simulation work.

Keywords: cycle index, deviation rate, wear calculation, wear profile

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Authors: Fabiano Araujo Soares, Sauro Emerick Salomoni, Joao Paulo Lima da Silva, Igor Luiz Moura, Adson Ferreira da Rocha

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This paper presents a tool developed in the Matlab platform. It was developed to simplify the analysis of surface electromyography signals (S-EMG) in a way accessible to users that are not familiarized with signal processing procedures. The tool receives data by commands in window fields and generates results as graphics and excel tables. The underlying math of each S-EMG estimator is presented. Setup window and result graphics are presented. The tool was presented to four non-engineer users and all of them managed to appropriately use it after a 5 minutes instruction period.

Keywords: S-EMG estimators, electromyography, surface electromyography, ARV, RMS, MDF, MNF, CV

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Authors: Yogita Mishra, Arijit Roy, Dhruval Bhavsar

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The study estimates the nitrogen concentration in selected vegetation community’s i.e. chir pine (pinusroxburghii) by using hyperspectral satellite data and also identified the appropriate spectral bands and nitrogen indices. The Short Wave InfraRed reflectance spectrum at 1790 nm and 1680 nm shows the maximum possible absorption by nitrogen in selected species. Among the nitrogen indices, log normalized nitrogen index performed positively and negatively too. The strong positive correlation is taken out from 1510 nm and 760 nm for the pinusroxburghii for leaf nitrogen concentration and leaf nitrogen mass while using NDNI. The regression value of R² developed by using linear equation achieved maximum at 0.7525 for the analysis of satellite image data and R² is maximum at 0.547 for ground truth data for pinusroxburghii respectively.

Keywords: hyperspectral, NDNI, nitrogen concentration, regression value

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Authors: M. K. Dce

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the behavior of simply supported beams having rectangular section and subjected to uniformly distributed load (UDL). In this study five beams of span 5m, 6m, 7m and 8m have been considered. The width of all the beams is 400 mm and span to depth ratio has been taken as 12. The superimposed live load has been increased from 10 kN/m to 25 kN/m at the interval of 5 kN/m. The analysis of the beams has been carried out using the elastic beam theory. On the basis of present study it has been concluded that the maximum bending moment as well as deflection occurs at the mid-span of simply supported beam and its magnitude increases in proportion to magnitude of UDL. Moreover, the study suggests that the maximum moment is proportional to square of span and maximum deflection is proportional to fourth power of span.

Keywords: beam, UDL, bending moment, deflection, elastic beam theory

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Authors: Zhao Weijie, Lin Xinjian, Liu Xiaojuan, Li Lihua

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The Howland current pump is widely used in bio-impedance measurement. Much attention has been focused on the output impedance of the Howland circuit. Here we focus on the maximum load of the Howland source and discuss the relationship between the circuit parameters at maximum load. We conclude that the signal input terminal of the feedback resistor should be as large as possible, but that the current-limiting resistor should be smaller. The op-amp saturation voltage should also be high. The bandwidth of the circuit is proportional to the bandwidth of the op-amp. The Howland current pump was simulated using multisim12. When the AD8066AR was selected as the op-amp, the maximum load was 11.5 kΩ, and the Howland current pump had a stable output ipp to 2mAp up to 200 kHz. However, with an OPA847 op-amp and a load of 6.3 kΩ, the output current was also stable, and the frequency was as high as 3 MHz.

Keywords: bio-impedance, improved Howland current pump, load characteristics, bioengineering

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Authors: Zine Souhila Rached, Mazari Benyounes Bouzid, Mohamed Amine, Allaoui Tayeb

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Wind energy has many advantages, it does not pollute and it is an inexhaustible source. However, its high cost is a major constraint, especially on the less windy sites. The purpose of wind energy systems is to maximize energy efficiency, and extract maximum power from the wind speed. In other words, having a power coefficient is maximum and therefore the maximum power point tracking. In this case, the MPPT control becomes important.To realize this control, strategy conventional proportional and integral (PI) controller is usually used. However, this strategy cannot achieve better performance. This paper proposes a robust control of a turbine which optimizes its production, that is improve the quality and energy efficiency, namely, a strategy of sliding mode control. The proposed sliding mode control strategy presents attractive features such as robustness to parametric uncertainties of the turbine; the proposed sliding mode control approach has been simulated on three-blade wind turbine. The simulation result under Matlab\Simulink has validated the performance of the proposed MPPT strategy.

Keywords: wind turbine, maximum power point tracking, sliding mode, energy conversion systems

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Mario Matković

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Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) according to Markowitz states that investors form mean-variance efficient portfolios which maximizes their utility. Markowitz proposed the standard deviation as a simple measure for portfolio risk and the lower semi-variance as the only risk measure of interest to rational investors. This paper uses a third volatility estimator based on intraday data and compares three efficient frontiers on the Croatian Stock Market. The results show that range-based volatility estimator outperforms both mean-variance and lower semi-variance model.

Keywords: variance, lower semi-variance, range-based volatility, MPT

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Authors: Mahmoud I. Syam, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Amer I. Al-Omari

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Stratified double extreme ranked set sampling (SDERSS) method is introduced and considered for estimating the population mean. The SDERSS is compared with the simple random sampling (SRS), stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS) and stratified simple set sampling (SSRS). It is shown that the SDERSS estimator is an unbiased of the population mean and more efficient than the estimators using SRS, SRSS and SSRS when the underlying distribution of the variable of interest is symmetric or asymmetric.

Keywords: double extreme ranked set sampling, extreme ranked set sampling, ranked set sampling, stratified double extreme ranked set sampling

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Authors: Young-Hun Lee, Tae-Gwan Kim, Jong-Kyu Kim, Young-Chul Park

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In this study, Spring safety valve Heat - structure coupled analysis was carried out. Full analysis procedure and performing thermal analysis at a maximum temperature, them to the results obtained through to give an additional load and the pressure on the valve interior, and Disc holder Heat-Coupled structure Analysis was carried out. Modeled using a 3D design program Solidworks, For the modeling of the safety valve was used 3D finite element analysis program ANSYS. The final result to be obtained through the Analysis examined the stability of the maximum displacement and the maximum stress to the valve internal components occurring in the high-pressure conditions.

Keywords: finite element method, spring safety valve, gap, stress, strain, deformation

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Authors: S. A. Naeini, M. Ghorbani Tochaee

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The aim of this study is to assess the influence of plastic fines content on sand-clay mixtures on maximum shear modulus and liquefaction resistance using a series of resonant column tests. A high plasticity clay called bentonite was added to 161 Firoozkooh sand at the percentages of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 by dry weight. The resonant column tests were performed on the remolded specimens at constant confining pressure of 100 KPa and then the values of G_max and liquefaction resistance were investigated. The maximum shear modulus and cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) are examined in terms of fines content. Based on the results, the maximum shear modulus and liquefaction resistance tend to decrease within the increment of fine contents.

Keywords: Gmax, liquefaction, plastic fines, resonant column, sand-clay mixtures, bentonite

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Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

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The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

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Authors: N. J. Nawarathna, N. R. Kmarasinghe, D. Chandrasekara, B. M. R. S. Balasooriya, R. A. A. Shaminda, R. J. K. Senevirathne

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Introduction: Thyroid malignancy associated with hyperthyroidism is considered rare. Retrospective studies have shown the incidence of thyroid malignancy in hyperthyroid patients to be low (0.7-8.5%). To assess the clinical relevance of this association, thyroid status in a cohort of patients with thyroid malignancy were analyzed. Method: Thyroid malignancies diagnosed histologically in 56 patients, over a 18 month period beginning from April 2013, in a single surgical unit at Teaching Hospital Kandy were included. Preoperative patient details and progression of thyroid status were asessed with Thyroid Stimulating Hormone, free Thyroxin and free Triiodothyronine levels. Results: Amongst 56 patients Papillary carcinoma was diagnosed in 44(78.6%), follicular carcinomas in 7(12.5%) and 5(8.9%) with medullary and anaplastic carcinomas. 12(21.4%) were males and 44(78.6%) were females. 20(35.7%) were less than 40years, 29(51.8%) were between 40 to 59years and 7(12.5%) were above 59years. Cross tabulation of Type of carcinoma with Gender revealed likelihood ratio of 6.908, Significance p = 0.032. Biochemically 12(21.4%) were hyperthyroid. Out of them 5(41.7%) had primary hyperthyroidism and 7(58.3%) had secondary hyperthyroidism. Mean age of euthyroid patients was 43.77years (SD 10.574) and hyperthyroid patients was 53.25years(SD 16.057). Independent Samples Test t is -2.446, two tailed significance p =0.018. When cross tabulate thyroid status with Age group Likelihood Ratio was 9.640, Significance p = 0.008. Conclusion: Papillary carcinoma is seen more among females. Among the patients with thyroid carcinomas, those with biochemically proven hyperthyroidism were more among the older age group than those who were euthyroid. Hence careful evaluation of elderly hyperthyroid patients to select the most suitable therapeutic approach is justified.

Keywords: age, hyperthyroidism, thyroid malignancy, thyroid status

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Authors: W. G. Kim, C. H. Jo

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We analyzed the effects of variations in the diameter of silicone rubber and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) tubings on the likelihood of tubing rupture during modeling of accidental arterial line clamping in cardiopulmonary bypass with a roller pump. A closed CPB circuit constructed with a roller pump was tested with both PVC and silicone rubber tubings of 1/2, 3/8, and 1/4 inch internal diameter. Arterial line pressure was monitored, and an occlusive clamp was placed across the tubing distal to the pressure monitor site to model an accidental arterial line occlusion. A CCD camera with 512(H) x 492(V) pixels was installed above the roller pump to measure tubing diameters at pump outlet, where the maximum deformations (distension) of the tubings occurred. Quantitative measurement of the changes of tubing diameters with the change of arterial line pressure was performed using computerized image processing techniques. A visible change of tubing diameter was generally noticeable by around 250 psi of arterial line pressure, which was already very high. By 1500 psi, the PVC tubings showed an increase of diameter of between 5-10 %, while the silicone rubber tubings showed an increase between 20-25 %. Silicone rubber tubings of all sizes showed greater distensibility than PVC tubings of equivalent size. In conclusion, although roller-pump induced tubing rupture remains a theoretical problem during cardiopulmonary bypass in terms of the inherent mechanism of the pump, in reality such an occurrence is impossible in real clinical conditions.

Keywords: roller pump, tubing rupture, cardiopulmonary bypass, arterial line

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Mehdi Ameur, Ahmed Essakdi, Tamou Nasser

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The purpose of this paper is the analysis and modeling of the photovoltaic system with MPPT techniques. This system is developed by combining the models of established solar module and DC-DC converter with the algorithms of perturb and observe (P&O), incremental conductance (INC) and fuzzy logic controller(FLC). The system is simulated under different climate conditions and MPPT algorithms to determine the influence of these conditions on characteristic power-voltage of PV system. According to the comparisons of the simulation results, the photovoltaic system can extract the maximum power with precision and rapidity using the MPPT algorithms discussed in this paper.

Keywords: photovoltaic array, maximum power point tracking, MPPT, perturb and observe, P&O, incremental conductance, INC, hill climbing, HC, fuzzy logic controller, FLC

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Authors: Geochul Jeong, In-Gun Kim, Hyun-Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

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This study is about IPMSM design for obtaining the maximum traction force of Tram-Train. Tram-Train is a Tram and Train-combined railway vehicles, which operates at a maximum speed of 70km/h in the city section (Tram section) and at a maximum speed of 150km/h in the out-of-city section (Train section). For this reason, tram-train was designed to be an IPMSM (Interior Permanent Synchronous Motor) with a wide range of speed variation. IPMSM’s magnetic path varies depending on the shape of rotor and in this case, the power characteristics are different in the constant torque area and the flux weakening area. Therefore, this study suggests a method to improve Tram-Train’s traction force, based on the relationship between magnetic torque and reluctance torque. The suggested method was applied through IPMSM rotor shape design and electromagnetic field finite element method was conducted to verify the validity of the suggested method.

Keywords: tram-train, traction motor, IPMSM, synchronous motor, railway vehicles

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

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Authors: Kinza Khan, Dad Muhmmad, Asif Saleem, Nadia Mukhtar, Tahir Yaqub

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Ethomedicines are more commonly used in underdeveloped and developing countries. These medicines are sometimes more potent in controlling microbial infections than conventional medicines. Medicinal plants have been common practice to cure many diseases for centuries. Murraya koenigii is one of these plants and is commonly used in South Asian countries as a flavoring agent in food. To evaluate its anti-microbial activity, six different bacterial strains (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella typhi, Bacillus cereus and Klebsiella pneumonia were used. N-hexane extract of Murraya koenigii leaves shows maximum activity against Bacillus cereus. Acetone extract of Murraya koenigii shoots showed more efficient activity against Pseudomonas aeruginosa Dichloromethane extracts showed maximum activity against Bacillus cereus. Ethanol extract exhibited maximum activity against Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Klebsiella pneumoniae. The methanol extract of Murraya koenigii shoots displayed maximum antibacterial activity against Bacillus cereus. Antifungal activity Ethanol extract was more effective against Candida albicans.

Keywords: ethnomedicines, bacteria, fungi, murraya koenigii, antimicrobial activity

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina

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Authors: Sunthari Tharapan, Chockpisit Thepsithar, Kullanart Obsuwan

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This study was aimed to investigate the effect of various organic supplements on growth and development of Dendrobium discolor’s protocorms and seedlings growth of Dendrobium Judy Rutz. Protocorms of Dendrobium discolor with 2.0 cm. in diameter and seedlings of Dendrobium Judy Rutz at the same size (0.5 cm. height) were sub-cultured on Hyponex medium supplemented with cow milk (CM), soy milk (SM), potato extract (PE) and peptone (P) for 2 months. The protocorms were developed to seedlings in all treatments after cultured for 2 months. However, the best results were found on Hyponex medium supplemented with P was the best in which the maximum fresh and dry weight and maximum shoot height were obtained in this treatment statistically different (p ≤ 0.05) to other treatments. Moreover, Hyponex medium supplemented with P also stimulated the maximum mean number of 5.7 shoots per explant which also showed statistically different (p ≤ 0.05) when compared to other treatments. The results of growth of Dendrobium Judy Rutz seedlings indicated the medium supplemented with 100 mL/L PE enhanced the maximum fresh and dry weigh per explants with significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) in fresh weight from other treatments including the control medium without any organic supplementation. However, the dry weight was not significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) from medium supplemented with SM and P. There was multiple shoots induction in all media with or without organic supplementation ranging from 2.6 to 3 shoots per explants. The maximum shoot height was also obtained in the seedlings cultured on medium supplemented with PE while the longest root length was found in medium supplemented with SM.

Keywords: fresh weight, in vitro propagation, orchid, plant height

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Authors: Waseim Ragab Azzam Ahmed Mohamed Nasr, Aalaa Ibrahim Khater

Abstract:

Torsional loads from offshore wind turbines, waves, wind, earthquakes, ship collisions in the maritime environment, and electrical transmission towers might affect the pile foundations. Torsional loads can also be caused by the axial load from the sustaining structures. The paper introduces the finned pile, an alternative method of pile modification. The effects of torsional loads were investigated through a series of experimental tests aimed at improving the torsional capacity of a single pile in the sand (where sand was utilized in a state of medium density (Dr = 50%), with or without fins. In these tests, the fins' length, width, form, and number were varied to see how these attributes affected the maximum torsional capacity of the piles. We have noticed the torsion-rotation reaction. The findings demonstrated that the fins improve the maximum torsional capacity of the piles. It was demonstrated that a length of 0.6 times the embedded pile's length and a width equivalent to the pile's diameter constitute the optimal fin geometry. For the conventional pile and the finned pile, the maximum torsional capacities were determined to be 4.12 N.m. and 7.36 N.m., respectively. When subjected to torsional loads, the fins' presence enhanced the piles' maximum torsional capacity by almost 79%.

Keywords: clean sand, finned piles, model tests, torsional load

Procedia PDF Downloads 30

Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh, John E. Daniels, Joseph W. McKean

Abstract:

In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.

Keywords: asymptotic relative efficiency, non-linear rank-based, rank estimates, variogram

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Muhammad Mamoon-Ur-Rashid, Gul Rehman

Abstract:

Entomopathogenic fungi are considered effective bio-control agents for the management of a range of insect pests including red palm weevil. The research studies were conducted under laboratory and field conditions against 5th and 6th instars larvae and adults of [Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier)] at the faculty of Agriculture, Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan (KPK) Pakistan. The 5th instar larvae were used under field conditions whereas, the 6th instar larvae and newly emerged adults were used under lab conditions. Conidial suspensions were used at five different concentrations of 1×10⁴, 1×10⁵, 1×10⁶, 1×10⁷ and 1×10⁸, conidia per ml. The data were recorded on the mortality, total larval duration, weight of larvae, pre-pupal and pupal durations, percent pupal formation, pupal weight, percent adult emergence, and adult longevity (♂ and ♀) of red palm weevil. The B. bassiana had varying degrees of pathogenicity against different developmental stages of red palm weevil. The maximum larval duration (113.40 days) was noted when 5th instar larvae were treated with the maximum concentration (1 × 10⁸) of B. bassiana, whereas; the minimum total larval duration of 87.20 days was recorded on the lowest concentration (1 × 10⁴) of B. bassiana. The maximum pre-pual and pupal durations were noted at the maximum concentration. The maximum life span of adult male and females were noted at the lowest concentration, whereas; the minimum values were noted at the maximum concentration. The earliest mortality of red palm weevil was observed 1-day after treatment at higher concentrations of 1 × 10⁷ and 1 × 10⁸, whereas; it was recorded 3 and 4 days after treatment at lower concentrations of 1 × 10⁵ and 1 × 10⁴. At 10 days after treatment, the entomopathogenic fungus caused > 80% cumulative mortality of 5th and 6th instar larvae and adult weevils at the maximum concentrations which were more than double than those recorded at the lowest concentration. Overall, the 5th instar larvae of red palm weevils were most susceptible to the fungus compared to the 6th instar larvae and adult weevils. Based on current findings, it is suggested that entomopathogenic fungi could be used for the safer management of red palm weevil.

Keywords: entomopathogenic nematodes, mortality, red palm weevil, sub-lethal effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 72