Search results for: markov chain mote carlo
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 2319

Search results for: markov chain mote carlo

549 Dental Fluorosis in Domestic Animals Inhabiting Industrial Area of Udaipur, Rajasthan, India

Authors: Lalita Panchal, Zulfiya Sheikh

Abstract:

Fluoride is essential for teeth and bones development not only for human beings but also for animals. But excess intake of fluoride causes harmful effects on health. Fluorosis is a worldwide health hazard and India is also one of the endemic countries. Udaipur district of Rajasthan is also prone to fluorosis and superphosphate industries are aggravating fluoride toxicity in this area. Grazing fields for animals in the close vicinity of the industries, fodder and water are fluoride contaminated. Fluoride toxicity in the form of dental fluorosis was observed in domestic animals, inhabiting industrial area near Udaipur, where superphosphate fertilizer plants are functioning and releasing fluoride and fumes and effluents into the surroundings. These fumes and gases directly affect the vegetation of grazing field, thus allowing entry of fluoride into the food chain. A survey was conducted in this area to assess the severity of fluorosis, in 2015-16. It was a house to house survey and animal owners were asked for their fodder and water supply. Anterior teeth of the animal were observed. Domestic animals exhibited mild to severe signs of dental fluorosis. Teeth showed deep brown staining, patches, lines and abrasions. Even immature animals were affected badly. Most of the domestic animals were affected, but goats of this area showed chronic symptoms of fluorosis. Due to abrasion of teeth and paining teeth their chewing or grazing capacity and appetite reduced. Eventually, it reduced the life span of animals and increased the mortality rate.

Keywords: domestic animals, fluoride toxicity, industrial fluorosis, superphosphate fertilizers

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548 A Phenomenological Approach to Computational Modeling of Analogy

Authors: José Eduardo García-Mendiola

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In this work, a phenomenological approach to computational modeling of analogy processing is carried out. The paper goes through the consideration of the structure of the analogy, based on the possibility of sustaining the genesis of its elements regarding Husserl's genetic theory of association. Among particular processes which take place in order to get analogical inferences, there is one which arises crucial for enabling efficient base cases retrieval through long-term memory, namely analogical transference grounded on familiarity. In general, it has been argued that analogical reasoning is a way by which a conscious agent tries to determine or define a certain scope of objects and relationships between them using previous knowledge of other familiar domain of objects and relations. However, looking for a complete description of analogy process, a deeper consideration of phenomenological nature is required in so far, its simulation by computational programs is aimed. Also, one would get an idea of how complex it would be to have a fully computational account of the analogy elements. In fact, familiarity is not a result of a mere chain of repetitions of objects or events but generated insofar as the object/attribute or event in question is integrable inside a certain context that is taking shape as functionalities and functional approaches or perspectives of the object are being defined. Its familiarity is generated not by the identification of its parts or objective determinations as if they were isolated from those functionalities and approaches. Rather, at the core of such a familiarity between entities of different kinds lays the way they are functionally encoded. So, and hoping to make deeper inroads towards these topics, this essay allows us to consider that cognitive-computational perspectives can visualize, from the phenomenological projection of the analogy process reviewing achievements already obtained as well as exploration of new theoretical-experimental configurations towards implementation of analogy models in specific as well as in general purpose machines.

Keywords: analogy, association, encoding, retrieval

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547 Retrospective Evaluation of Vector-borne Infections in Cats Living in Germany (2012-2019)

Authors: I. Schäfer, B. Kohn, M. Volkmann, E. Müller

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Introduction: Blood-feeding arthropods transmit parasitic, bacterial, or viral pathogens to domestic animals and wildlife. Vector-borne infections are gaining significance due to the increase of travel, import of domestic animals from abroad, and the changing climate in Europe. Aims of the study: The main objective of this retrospective study was to assess the prevalence of vector-borne infections in cats in which a ‘Feline Travel Profile’ had been conducted. Material and Methods: This retrospective study included test results from cats for which a ‘Feline Travel Profile’ established by LABOKLIN had been requested by veterinarians between April 2012 and December 2019. This profile contains direct detection methods via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for Hepatozoon spp. and Dirofilaria spp. as well as indirect detection methods via immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT) for Ehrlichia spp. and Leishmania spp. This profile was expanded to include an IFAT for Rickettsia spp. from July 2015 onwards. The prevalence of the different vector-borne infectious agents was calculated. Results: A total of 602 cats were tested using the ‘Feline Travel Profile’. Positive test results were as follows: Rickettsia spp. IFAT 54/442 (12.2%), Ehrlichia spp. IFAT 68/602 (11.3%), Leishmania spp. IFAT 21/602 (3.5%), Hepatozoon spp. PCR 51/595 (8.6%), and Dirofilaria spp. PCR 1/595 cats (0.2%). Co-infections with more than one pathogen could be detected in 22/602 cats. Conclusions: 170/602 cats (28.2%) were tested positive for at least one vector-borne pathogen. Infections with multiple pathogens could be detected in 3.7% of the cats. The data emphasizes the importance of considering vector-borne infections as potential differential diagnoses in cats.

Keywords: arthopod-transmitted infections, feline vector-borne infections, Germany, laboratory diagnostics

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546 Attribution of Strategic Motive, Business Efficiencies, Firm Economies, and Market Factors as Motivations of Restaurant Industry Vertical Integration Adoption: A Structural Equation Model

Authors: Sy, Melecio Jr

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The decision to adopt vertical integration (VI) is firm-specific, but there is a common practice among businesses in an industry to maximize the massive potential benefits of VI. This study aims to determine VI adoption in the restaurant industry in Davao City. Using a two-step sampling process, the study used a validated survey questionnaire among 264 restaurant owners and managers randomly selected and geographically classified. It is a quantitative study where the data were subjected to a structural equation model (SEM). The results revealed that VI is present but limited to procurement, production, restaurant services, and online marketing. Raw materials were outsourced while delivery to customers through third-party delivery services. VI slowly increased over ten years except for online marketing, which has grown significantly in a few years. The endogenous and exogenous variables were correlated and established the linear regression model. The SEM's best fit model revealed that strategic motives (SMOT) and market factors (MFAC) influenced VI adoption while MFAC is the best predictor. Favorable market factors may lead restaurants to adopt VI. It is, thus, recommended for restaurants to institutionalize strategic management, quantify the impact of double marginalization in future studies as a reason for VI and conduct this study during the new normal to see the influence of business efficiencies and firm economies on VI adoption.

Keywords: business efficiencies, business management, davao city, firm economies, market factors, philippines, strategic motives, structural equation model, supply chain, vertical integration adoption

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545 Analysis of Truck Drivers’ Distraction on Crash Risk

Authors: Samuel Nderitu Muchiri, Tracy Wangechi Maina

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Truck drivers face a myriad of challenges in their profession. Enhancements in logistics effectiveness can be pivotal in propelling economic developments. The specific objective of the study was to assess the influence of driver distraction on crash risk. The study is significant as it elucidates best practices that truck drivers can embrace in an effort to enhance road safety. These include amalgamating behaviors that enable drivers to fruitfully execute multifaceted functions such as finding and following routes, evading collisions, monitoring speed, adhering to road regulations, and evaluating vehicle systems’ conditions. The analysis involved an empirical review of ten previous studies related to the research topic. The articles revealed that driver distraction plays a substantial role in road accidents and other crucial road security incidents across the globe. Africa depends immensely on the freight transport sector to facilitate supply chain operations. Several studies indicate that drivers who operate primarily on rural roads, such as those found in Sub-Saharan Africa, have an increased propensity to engage in distracted activities such as cell phone usage while driving. The findings also identified the need for digitalization in truck driving operations, including carrier management techniques such as fatigue management, artificial intelligence, and automating functions like cell phone usage controls. The recommendations can aid policymakers and commercial truck carriers in deepening their understanding of driver distraction and enforcing mitigations to foster road safety.

Keywords: truck drivers, distraction, digitalization, crash risk, road safety

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544 Improvement of Production of γ-Aminobutyric Acid by Lactobacillus plantarum Isolated from Indigenous Fermented Durian (Tempoyak)

Authors: Yetti Marlida, Harnentis, Yuliaty Shafan Nur

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Background: Tempoyak is a dish derived from fermented durian fruit. Tempoyak is a food consumed as a side dish when eating rice. Besides being eaten with rice, tempoyak can also be eaten directly. But this is rarely done because many cannot stand the sour taste and aroma of the tempoyak itself. In addition, tempoyak can also be used as a seasoning. The taste of tempoyak is acidic, this occurs because of the fermentation process in durian fruit meat which is the raw material. Tempoyak is already very well known in Indonesia, especially in Padang, Bengkulu, Palembang, Lampung, and Kalimantan. Besides that, this food is also famous in Malaysia. The purpose of this research is to improvement production of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) by Lactobacillus plantarum isolated from indigenous fermented durian (tempoyak). Selected Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) previously isolated from indigenous fermented durian (tempoyak) that have ability to produce γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). The study was started with identification of selected LAB by 16 S RNA, followed optimation of GABA production by culture condition using different initial pH, temperature, glutamate concentration, incubation time, carbon and nitrogen sources. Results: The result from indentification used polymerase chain reaction of 16S rRNA gene sequences and phylogenetic analysis was Lactobacillus plantarum (coded as Y3) with a sequenced length of 1400bp. The improvement of Gaba production was found highest at pH: 6.0; temperature: 30 °C; glutamate concentration: 0.4%; incubation time: 60 h; glucose and yeast extract as carbon and nitrogen sources. Conclusions: GABA can be produced with the optimum condition fermentation were 66.06 mM.

Keywords: lactic acid bacteria, γ-amino butyric acid, indigenous fermented durian, PCR

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543 Power System Cyber Security Risk in the Era of Digital Transformation

Authors: Rafat Rob, Khaled Alotaibi, Dana Nour, Abdullah Albadrani, Abdulmohsen Mulhim

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Power systems digitization solutions provides a comprehensive smart, cohesive, interconnected network, extensive connectivity between digital assets, physical power plants, and resources to form digital economies. However, digitization has exposed the classical air gapped power plants to the rapid spread of cyber threats and attacks in the process delaying and forcing many organizations to rethink their cyber security policies and standards before they can augment their operation the new advanced digital devices. Cyber Security requirements for power systems (and industry control systems therein) demand a new approach, unique methodology, and design process that is completely different to Cyber Security measures designed for the IT systems. In practice, Cyber Security strategy, as applied to power systems, tends to be closely aligned to those measures applied for IT system purposes. The differentiator for Cyber Security in terms of power systems are the physical assets and applications used, alongside the ever-growing rate of expansion within the industry controls sector (in comparison to the relatively saturated growth observed for corporate IT systems). These factors increase the magnitude of the cyber security risk within such systems. The introduction of smart devices and sensors along the grid initiate vulnerable entry points to the systems. Every installed Smart Meter is a target; the way these devices communicate with each other may instigate a Denial of Service (DoS) and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. Attacking one sensor or meter has the potential to propagate itself throughout the power grid reaching the IT network, where it may manifest itself as a malware infiltration.

Keywords: supply chain, cybersecurity, maturity model, risk, smart grid

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542 Efficiency of a Molecularly Imprinted Polymer for Selective Removal of Chlorpyrifos from Water Samples

Authors: Oya A. Urucu, Aslı B. Çiğil, Hatice Birtane, Ece K. Yetimoğlu, Memet Vezir Kahraman

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Chlorpyrifos is an organophosphorus pesticide which can be found in environmental water samples. The efficiency and reuse of a molecularly imprinted polymer (chlorpyrifos - MIP) were investigated for the selective removal of chlorpyrifos residues. MIP was prepared with UV curing thiol-ene polymerization technology by using multifunctional thiol and ene monomers. The thiol-ene curing reaction is a radical induced process, however unlike other photoinitiated polymerization processes, this polymerization process is a free-radical reaction that proceeds by a step-growth mechanism, involving two main steps; a free-radical addition followed by a chain transfer reaction. It assures a very rapidly formation of a uniform crosslinked network with low shrinkage, reduced oxygen inhibition during curing and excellent adhesion. In this study, thiol-ene based UV-curable polymeric materials were prepared by mixing pentaerythritol tetrakis(3-mercaptopropionate), glyoxal bis diallyl acetal, polyethylene glycol diacrylate (PEGDA) and photoinitiator. Chlorpyrifos was added at a definite ratio to the prepared formulation. Chemical structure and thermal properties were characterized by FTIR and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), respectively. The pesticide analysis was performed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The influences of some analytical parameters such as pH, sample volume, amounts of analyte concentration were studied for the quantitative recoveries of the analyte. The proposed MIP method was applied to the determination of chlorpyrifos in river and tap water samples. The use of the MIP provided a selective and easy solution for removing chlorpyrifos from the water.

Keywords: molecularly imprinted polymers, selective removal, thilol-ene, uv-curable polymer

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541 Lipase-Catalyzed Synthesis of Novel Nutraceutical Structured Lipids in Non-Conventional Media

Authors: Selim Kermasha

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A process for the synthesis of structured lipids (SLs) by the lipase-catalyzed interesterification of selected endogenous edible oils such as flaxseed oil (FO) and medium-chain triacylglyceols such as tricaprylin (TC) in non-conventional media (NCM), including organic solvent media (OSM) and solvent-free medium (SFM), was developed. The bioconversion yield of the medium-long-medium-type SLs (MLM-SLs were monitored as the responses with use of selected commercial lipases. In order to optimize the interesterification reaction and to establish a model system, a wide range of reaction parameters, including TC to FO molar ratio, reaction temperature, enzyme concentration, reaction time, agitation speed and initial water activity, were investigated to establish the a model system. The model system was monitored with the use of multiple response surface methodology (RSM) was used to obtain significant models for the responses and to optimize the interesterification reaction, on the basis of selected levels and variable fractional factorial design (FFD) with centre points. Based on the objective of each response, the appropriate level combination of the process parameters and the solutions that met the defined criteria were also provided by means of desirability function. The synthesized novel molecules were structurally characterized, using silver-ion reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) atmospheric pressure chemical ionization-mass spectrophotometry (APCI-MS) analyses. The overall experimental findings confirmed the formation of dicaprylyl-linolenyl glycerol, dicaprylyl-oleyl glycerol and dicaprylyl-linoleyl glycerol resulted from the lipase-catalyzed interesterification of FO and TC.

Keywords: enzymatic interesterification, non-conventinal media, nutraceuticals, structured lipids

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540 An Empirical Investigation on the Dynamics of Knowledge and IT Industries in Korea

Authors: Sang Ho Lee, Tae Heon Moon, Youn Taik Leem, Kwang Woo Nam

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Knowledge and IT inputs to other industrial production have become more important as a key factor for the competitiveness of national and regional economies, such as knowledge economies in smart cities. Knowledge and IT industries lead the industrial innovation and technical (r)evolution through low cost, high efficiency in production, and by creating a new value chain and new production path chains, which is referred as knowledge and IT dynamics. This study aims to investigate the knowledge and IT dynamics in Korea, which are analyzed through the input-output model and structural path analysis. Twenty-eight industries were reclassified into seven categories; Agriculture and Mining, IT manufacture, Non-IT manufacture, Construction, IT-service, Knowledge service, Non-knowledge service to take close look at the knowledge and IT dynamics. Knowledge and IT dynamics were analyzed through the change of input output coefficient and multiplier indices in terms of technical innovation, as well as the changes of the structural paths of the knowledge and IT to other industries in terms of new production value creation from 1985 and 2010. The structural paths of knowledge and IT explain not only that IT foster the generation, circulation and use of knowledge through IT industries and IT-based service, but also that knowledge encourages IT use through creating, sharing and managing knowledge. As a result, this paper found the empirical investigation on the knowledge and IT dynamics of the Korean economy. Knowledge and IT has played an important role regarding the inter-industrial transactional input for production, as well as new industrial creation. The birth of the input-output production path has mostly originated from the knowledge and IT industries, while the death of the input-output production path took place in the traditional industries from 1985 and 2010. The Korean economy has been in transition to a knowledge economy in the Smart City.

Keywords: knowledge and IT industries, input-output model, structural path analysis, dynamics of knowledge and it, knowledge economy, knowledge city and smart city

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539 Synthesis and Characterization of Chiral Dopant Based on Schiff's Base Structure

Authors: Hong-Min Kim, Da-Som Han, Myong-Hoon Lee

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CLCs (Cholesteric liquid crystals) draw tremendous interest due to their potential in various applications such as cholesteric color filters in LCD devices. CLC possesses helical molecular orientation which is induced by a chiral dopant molecules mixed with nematic liquid crystals. The efficiency of a chiral dopant is quantified by the HTP (helical twisting power). In this work, we designed and synthesized a series of new chiral dopants having a Schiff’s base imine structure with different alkyl chain lengths (butyl, hexyl and octyl) from chiral naphthyl amine by two-step reaction. The structures of new chiral dopants were confirmed by 1H-NMR and IR spectroscopy. The properties were investigated by DSC (differential scanning calorimetry calorimetry), POM (polarized optical microscopy) and UV-Vis spectrophotometer. These solid state chiral dopants showed excellent solubility in nematic LC (MLC-6845-000) higher than 17wt%. We prepared the CLC(Cholesteric Liquid Crystal) cell by mixing nematic LC (MLC-6845-000) with different concentrations of chiral dopants and injecting into the sandwich cell of 5μm cell gap with antiparallel alignment. The cholesteric liquid crystal phase was confirmed from POM, in which all the samples showed planar phase, a typical phase of the cholesteric liquid crystals. The HTP (helical twisting power) is one of the most important properties of CLC. We measured the HTP values from the UV-Vis transmittance spectra of CLC cells with varies chiral dopant concentration. The HTP values with different alkyl chains are as follows: butyl chiral dopant=29.8μm-1; hexyl chiral dopant= 31.8μm-1; octyl chiral dopant=27.7μm-1. We obtained the red, green and blue reflection color from CLC cells, which can be used as color filters in LCDs applications.

Keywords: cholesteric liquid crystal, color filter, display, HTP

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538 Numerical Simulation of Large-Scale Landslide-Generated Impulse Waves With a Soil‒Water Coupling Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics Model

Authors: Can Huang, Xiaoliang Wang, Qingquan Liu

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Soil‒water coupling is an important process in landslide-generated impulse waves (LGIW) problems, accompanied by large deformation of soil, strong interface coupling and three-dimensional effect. A meshless particle method, smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) has great advantages in dealing with complex interface and multiphase coupling problems. This study presents an improved soil‒water coupled model to simulate LGIW problems based on an open source code DualSPHysics (v4.0). Aiming to solve the low efficiency problem in modeling real large-scale LGIW problems, graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration technology is implemented into this code. An experimental example, subaerial landslide-generated water waves, is simulated to demonstrate the accuracy of this model. Then, the Huangtian LGIW, a real large-scale LGIW problem is modeled to reproduce the entire disaster chain, including landslide dynamics, fluid‒solid interaction, and surge wave generation. The convergence analysis shows that a particle distance of 5.0 m can provide a converged landslide deposit and surge wave for this example. Numerical simulation results are in good agreement with the limited field survey data. The application example of the Huangtian LGIW provides a typical reference for large-scale LGIW assessments, which can provide reliable information on landslide dynamics, interface coupling behavior, and surge wave characteristics.

Keywords: soil‒water coupling, landslide-generated impulse wave, large-scale, SPH

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537 An Evaluation of a Sustainable Business Plan in Mexico City: Urban Gardens

Authors: Tania Vazquez, Aida Huerta

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Way to get our food has changed over the time, and it is a daily necessity. Nowadays we found a lot of problems involved with the economy, environment, and society, which affect the agrifood system. Some problems as construction of big cities and growing population have been increasing demand food directly. Due to the countryside are far away from the city, another alternative systems have come from, such as Urban Agriculture (UA). UA system offers food production into the cities, products with characteristics as quality, healthy and good prices, close to the customers, recycling culture and the promote environmental education. Last years in Mexico City urban gardens have taken strongly in various politic delegations. There are establishment’s public and private initiatives. Moreover, these places have had different issues like low income, many activities, few workers, low production, lack of training and advice, devaluation of your work and low sales, all these shortcomings generate the devaluation of their work. The aim of this paper is to evaluate a business plan in Mexico City´s urban gardens that contribute to ensuring economic, environmental and social sustainability; to adjust business plan for this places so that they reach viability over time. As a part of soft systems methodology developed of Peter Checkland, we interviewed owners of urban gardens and we found that recurring problem was lack planning manager activities and a master plan about their business. We evaluate the business plan based on “Ten principles in sustainable food value chain development” proposed for Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). With this study was possible measure, understand and improve performance of business plan in the three pillars of the sustainability in addition to this it allowed us to fit in with the needs of urban gardens.

Keywords: business plan, Mexico City, urban agriculture, urban gardens

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536 Biodegradation of Malathion by Acinetobacter baumannii Strain AFA Isolated from Domestic Sewage in Egypt

Authors: Ahmed F. Azmy, Amal E. Saafan, Tamer M. Essam, Magdy A. Amin, Shaban H. Ahmed

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Bacterial strains capable of degradation of malathion from the domestic sewage were isolated by an enrichment culture technique. Three bacterial strains were screened and identified as Acinetobacter baumannii (AFA), Pseudomonas aeruginosae (PS1),andPseudomonas mendocina (PS2) based on morphological, biochemical identification and 16S rRNA sequence analysis. Acinetobacter baumannii AFA was the most efficient malathion degrading bacterium, so used for further biodegradation study. AFA was able to grow in mineral salt medium (MSM) supplemented with malathion (100 mg/l) as a sole carbon source, and within 14 days, 84% of the initial dose was degraded by the isolate measured by high performance liquid chromatography. Strain AFA could also degrade other organophosphorus compounds including diazenon, chlorpyrifos and fenitrothion. The effect of different culture conditions on the degradation of malathion like inoculum density, other carbon or nitrogen sources, temperature and shaking were examined. Degradation of malathion and bacterial cell growth were accelerated when culture media were supplemented with yeast extract, glucose and citrate. The optimum conditions for malathion degradation by strain AFA were; an inoculum density of 1.5x 1012CFU/ml at 30°C with shaking. A specific polymerase chain reaction primers were designed manually using multiple sequence alignment of the corresponding carboxylesterase enzymes of Acinetobacter species. Sequencing result of amplified PCR product and phylogenetic analysis showed low degree of homology with the other carboxylesterase enzymes of Acinetobacter strains, so we suggested that this enzyme is a novel esterase enzyme. Isolated bacterial strains may have potential role for use in bioremediation of malathion contaminated.

Keywords: Acinetobacter baumannii, biodegradation, malathion, organophosphate pesticides

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535 Unlocking Justice: Exploring the Power and Challenges of DNA Analysis in the Criminal Justice System

Authors: Sandhra M. Pillai

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This article examines the relevance, difficulties, and potential applications of DNA analysis in the criminal justice system. A potent tool for connecting suspects to crime sites, clearing the innocent of wrongdoing, and resolving cold cases, DNA analysis has transformed forensic investigations. The scientific foundations of DNA analysis, including DNA extraction, sequencing, and statistical analysis, are covered in the article. To guarantee accurate and trustworthy findings, it also discusses the significance of quality assurance procedures, chain of custody, and DNA sample storage. DNA analysis has significantly advanced science, but it also brings up substantial moral and legal issues. To safeguard individual rights and uphold public confidence, privacy concerns, possible discrimination, and abuse of DNA information must be properly addressed. The paper also emphasises the effects of the criminal justice system on people and communities while highlighting the necessity of equity, openness, and fair access to DNA testing. The essay describes the obstacles and future directions for DNA analysis. It looks at cutting-edge technology like next-generation sequencing, which promises to make DNA analysis quicker and more affordable. To secure the appropriate and informed use of DNA evidence, it also emphasises the significance of multidisciplinary collaboration among scientists, law enforcement organisations, legal experts, and policymakers. In conclusion, DNA analysis has enormous potential for improving the course of criminal justice. We can exploit the potential of DNA technology while respecting the ideals of justice, fairness, and individual rights by navigating the ethical, legal, and societal issues and encouraging discussion and collaboration.

Keywords: DNA analysis, DNA evidence, reliability, validity, legal frame, admissibility, ethical considerations, impact, future direction, challenges

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534 The Effect of Finding and Development Costs and Gas Price on Basins in the Barnett Shale

Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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533 The Study of Platelet-Rich Plasma(PRP) on Wounds of OLEFT Rats Using Expression of MMP-2, MMP-9 mRNA

Authors: Ho Seong Shin

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Introduction: A research in relation to wound healing also showed that platelet-rich plasma (PRP) was effective on normal tissue regeneration. Nonetheless, there is no evidence that when platelet-rich plasma was applied on diabetic wound, it normalize diabetic wound healing process. In this study, we have analyzed matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2), matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) expression to know the effect of PRP on diabetic wounds using Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of MMP-2, MMP-9 mRNA. Materials and Methods: Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) was prepared from blood of 6 rats. The whole 120-mL was added immediately to an anticoagulant. Citrate phosphonate dextrose(CPD) buffer (0.15 mg CPDmL) in a ratio of 1 mL of CPD buffer to 5 mL of blood. The blood was then centrifuged at 220g for 20minutes. The supernatant was saved to produce fibrin glue. The participate containing PRP was used for second centrifugation at 480g for 20 minutes. The pellet from the second centrifugation was saved and diluted with supernatant until the platelet concentration became 900,000/μL. Twenty male, 4week-old OLETF rats were underwent operation; each rat had two wounds created on left and right sides. The each wound of left side was treated with PRP gel, the wound of right side was treated with physiologic saline gauze. Results: RT-PCR analysis; The levels of MMP-2 mRNA in PRP applied tissues were positively related to postwounding days, whereas MMP-2 mRNA expression in saline-applied tissues remained in 5day after treatment. MMP-9 mRNA was undetectable in saline-applied tissues for either tissue, except 3day after treatment. Following PRP-applied tissues, MMP-9 mRNA expression was detected, with maximal expression being seen at third day. The levels of MMP-9 mRNA in PRP applied tissues were reported high intensity of optical density related to saline applied tissues.

Keywords: diabetes, MMP-2, MMP-9, OLETF, PRP, wound healing MMP-9

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532 Evaluating Aquaculture Farmers Responses to Climate Change and Sustainable Practices in Kenya

Authors: Olalekan Adekola, Margaret Gatonye, Paul Orina

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The growing demand for farmed fish by underdeveloped and developing countries as a means of contributing positively towards eradication of hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition for their fast growing populations has implications to the environment. Likewise, climate change poses both an immediate and future threat to local fish production with capture fisheries already experiencing a global decline. This not only raises fundamental questions concerning how aquaculture practices affect the environment, but also how ready are aquaculture farmers to adapt to climate related hazards. This paper assesses existing aquaculture practices and approaches to adapting to climate hazards in Kenya, where aquaculture has grown rapidly since the year 2009. The growth has seen rise in aquaculture set ups mainly along rivers and streams, importation of seed and feed and intensification with possible environmental implications. The aquaculture value chain in the context of climate change and their implication for practice is further investigated, and the strategies necessary for an improved implementation of resilient aquaculture system in Kenya is examined. Data for the study are collected from interviews, questionnaires, two workshops and document analysis. Despite acclaimed nutritional benefit of fish consumption in Kenya, poor management of effluents enriched with nitrogen, phosphorus, organic matter, and suspended solids has implications not just on the ecosystem, goods, and services, but is also potential source of resource-use conflicts especially in downstream communities and operators in the livestock, horticulture, and industrial sectors. The study concluded that aquaculture focuses on future orientation, climate resilient infrastructure, appropriate site selection and invest on biosafety as the key sustainable strategies against climate hazards.

Keywords: aquaculture, resilience, environment, strategies, Kenya

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531 Library Screening and Evaluation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Ketol-Acid Reductoisomerase Inhibitors

Authors: Vagolu S. Krishna, Shan Zheng, Estharla M. Rekha, Luke W. Guddat, Dharmarajan Sriram

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Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major threat to human health. This due to the fact that current drug treatments are less than optimal as well as the rising occurrence of multi drug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant strains of the etiological agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mt). Given the wide-spread significance of this disease, we have undertaken a design and evaluation program to discover new anti-TB drug leads. Here, our attention is focused on ketol-acid reductoisomerase (KARI), the second enzyme in the branched-chain amino acid biosynthesis pathway. Importantly, this enzyme is present in bacteria but not in humans, making it an attractive proposition for drug discovery. In the present work, we used high-throughput virtual screening to identify seventeen potential inhibitors of KARI using the Birla Institute of Technology and Science in-house database. Compounds were selected based on high docking scores, which were assigned as the result of favourable interactions between the compound and the active site of KARI. The Ki values for two leads, compounds 14 and 16 are 3.71 and 3.06 µM, respectively for Mt KARI. To assess the mode of binding, 100 ns molecular dynamics simulations for these two compounds in association with Mt KARI were performed and showed that the complex was stable with an average RMSD of less than 2.5 Å for all atoms. Compound 16 showed an MIC of 2.06 ± 0.91 µM and a 1.9 fold logarithmic reduction in the growth of Mt in an infected macrophage model. The two compounds exhibited low toxicity against murine macrophage RAW 264.7 cell lines. Thus, both compounds are promising candidates for development as an anti-TB drug leads.

Keywords: ketol-acid reductoisomerase, macrophage, molecular docking and dynamics, tuberculosis

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530 Influence of Different Rhizome Sizes and Operational Speed on the Field Capacity and Efficiency of a Three–Row Turmeric Rhizome Planter

Authors: Muogbo Chukwudi Peter, Gbabo Agidi

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Influence of different turmeric rhizome sizes and machine operational speed on the field capacity and efficiency of a developed prototype tractor-drawn turmeric planter was studied. This was done with a view to ascertaining how the field capacity and field efficiency were affected by the turmeric rhizome lengths and tractor operational speed. The turmeric rhizome planter consists of trapezoidal hopper, grooved cylindrical metering devise, rectangular frame, ground wheels made of mild steel, furrow opener, chain/sprocket drive system, three linkage point seed delivery tube and press wheel. The experiment was randomized in a factorial design of three levels of rhizome lengths (30, 45 and 60 mm) and operational speeds of 8, 10, and 12 kmh-1. About 3 kg cleaned turmeric rhizomes were introduced into each hopper of the planter and were planted 30 m2 of experimental plot. During the field evaluation of the planter, the effective field capacity, field efficiency, missing index, multiple index and percentage rhizome bruise were evaluated. 30.08% was recorded for maximum percentage bruise on the rhizome. The mean effective field capacity ranged between 0.63 – 0.96hah-1 at operational speeds of 8 and 12kmh-1 respectively and 45 mm rhizome length. The result also shows that the mean efficiency was obtained to be 65.8%. The percentage rhizome bruise decreases with increase in operational speed. The highest and lowest percentage turmeric rhizome miss index of 35% were recorded for turmeric rhizome length of 30 mm at a speed of 10 kmhr-1 and 8 kmhr-1, respectively. The potential implications of the experimental result is to determine the optimal machine process conditions for higher field capacity and gross reduction in mechanical injury (bruise) of planted turmeric rhizomes.

Keywords: rhizome sizes, operational speed, field capacity. field efficiency, turmeric rhizome, planter

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529 Syntheses of Biobased Hybrid Poly(epoxy-hydroxyurethane) Polymers

Authors: Adrien Cornille, Sylvain Caillol, Bernard Boutevon

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The development of polyurethanes began in 1937 at I. G. Farbenindustrie where Bayer with coworkers discovered the addition polymerization reaction between diisocyanates and diols. Since their discovery, the demand in PU has continued to increase and it will attain in 2016 a production of 18 million tons. However, isocyanates compounds are harmful to human and environment. Methylene diphenyl 4,4’-diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diisocyanate (TDI), the most widely used isocyanates in PU industry, are classified as CMR (Carcinogen, Mutagen, and Reprotoxic). In order to design isocyanate-free materials, an interesting alternative is the use of Polyhydroxyurethanes (PHUs) by reaction between cyclic carbonate and polyfunctional amines. The main problem concerning PHUs synthesis relates to the low reactivity of carbonate/amine reaction. To solve this issue, many studies in the literature have been conducted to design PHU from more reactive cyclic-carbonates, bearing electro-withdrawing substituent or by using six-membered, seven-membered or thio-cyclic carbonate. The main drawback of all these systems remains the low molar masses obtained for the synthesized PHUs, which hinders their use for material applications. Therefore, we developed another strategy to afford new hybrid PHU with high conversion. This very innovative two-step approach consists in the first step in the synthesis of aminotelechelic PHU oligomers with different chain length from bis-cyclic carbonate with different excess of primary amine functions. In the second step, these aminotelechelic PHU oligomers were used in formulation with biobased epoxy monomers (from cashew nut shell liquid and tannins) to synthesize hybrid polyepoxyurethane polymers. These materials were then characterized by thermal and mechanical analyses.

Keywords: polyurethane, polyhydroxyurethane, aminotelechelic NIPU oligomers, carbonates, epoxy, amine, epoxyurethane polymers, hybrid polymers

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528 Understanding the Prevalence and Expression of Virulence Factors Harbored by Enterotoxigenic Escherichia Coli

Authors: Debjyoti Bhakat, Indranil Mondal, Asish K. Mukhopadayay, Nabendu S. Chatterjee

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Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli is one of the leading causes of diarrhea in infants and travelers in developing countries. Colonization factors play an important role in pathogenesis and are one of the main targets for Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) vaccine development. However, ETEC vaccines had poorly performed in the past, as the prevalence of colonization factors is region-dependent. There are more than 25 classical colonization factors presently known to be expressed by ETEC, although all are not expressed together. Further, there are other multiple non-classical virulence factors that are also identified. Here the presence and expression of common classical and non-classical virulence factors were studied. Further studies were done on the expression of prevalent colonization factors in different strains. For the prevalence determination, multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was employed, which was confirmed by simplex PCR. Quantitative RT-PCR was done to study the RNA expression of these virulence factors. Strains negative for colonization factors expression were confirmed by SDS-PAGE. Among the clinical isolates, the most prevalent toxin was est+elt, followed by est and elt, while the pattern was reversed in the control strains. There were 29% and 40% strains negative for any classical colonization factors (CF) or non-classical virulence factors (NCVF) among the clinical and control strains, respectively. Among CF positive ETEC strains, CS6 and CS21 were the prevalent ones in the clinical strains, whereas in control strains, CS6 was the predominant one. For NCVF genes, eatA was the most prevalent among the clinical isolates and etpA for control. CS6 was the most expressed CF, and eatA was the predominantly expressed NCVF for both clinical and controlled ETEC isolates. CS6 expression was more in strains having CS6 alone. Different strains express CS6 at different levels. Not all strains expressed their respective virulence factors. Understanding the prevalent colonization factor, CS6, and its nature of expression will contribute to designing an effective vaccine against ETEC in this region of the globe. The expression pattern of CS6 also will help in examining the relatedness between the ETEC subtypes.

Keywords: classical virulence factors, CS6, diarrhea, enterotoxigenic escherichia coli, expression, non-classical virulence factors

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527 Management of Interdependence in Manufacturing Networks

Authors: Atour Taghipour

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In the real world each manufacturing company is an independent business unit. These business units are linked to each other through upstream and downstream linkages. The management of these linkages is called coordination which, could be considered as a difficult engineering task. The degree of difficulty of coordination depends on the type and the nature of information exchanged between partners as well as the structure of relationship from mutual to the network structure. The literature of manufacturing systems comprises a wide range of varieties of methods and approaches of coordination. In fact, two main streams of research can be distinguished: central coordination versus decentralized coordination. In the centralized systems a high degree of information exchanges is required. The high degree of information exchanges sometimes leads to difficulties when independent members do not want to share information. In order to address these difficulties, decentralized approaches of coordination of operations planning decisions based on some minimal information sharing have been proposed in many academic disciplines. This paper first proposes a framework of analysis in order to analyze the proposed approaches in the literature, based on this framework which includes the similarities between approaches we categorize the existing approaches. This classification can be used as a research map for future researches. The result of our paper highlights several opportunities for future research. First, it is proposed to develop more dynamic and stochastic mechanisms of planning coordination of manufacturing units. Second, in order to exploit the complementarities of approaches proposed by diverse science discipline, we propose to integrate the techniques of coordination. Finally, based on our approach we proposed to develop coordination standards to guaranty both the complementarity of these approaches as well as the freedom of companies to adopt any planning tools.

Keywords: network coordination, manufacturing, operations planning, supply chain

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526 Remodeling of Gut Microbiome of Pakistani Expats in China After Intermittent Fasting/Ramadan Fasting

Authors: Hafiz Arbab Sakandar

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Time-restricted intermittent fasting (TRIF) impacts host’s physiology and health. Plenty of health benefits have been reported for TRIF in animal models. However, limited studies have been conducted on humans especially in underdeveloped economies. Here, we designed a study to investigate the impact of TRIF/Ramadan fasting (16:8) on the modulation of gut-microbiome structure, metabolic pathways, and predicted metabolites and explored the correlation among them at different time points (during and after the month of Ramadan) in Pakistani Expats living in China. We observed different trends of Shannon-Wiener index in different subjects; however, all subjects showed substantial change in bacterial diversity with the progression of TRIF. Moreover, the changes in gut microbial structure by the end of TRIF were higher vis-a-vis in the beginning, significant difference was observed among individuals. Additionally, metabolic pathways analysis revealed that amino acid, carbohydrate and energy metabolism, glycan biosynthesis metabolism of cofactors and vitamins were significantly affected by TRIF. Pyridoxamine, glutamate, citrulline, arachidonic acid, and short chain fatty acid showed substantial difference at different time points based on the predicted metabolism. In conclusion, these results contribute to further our understanding about the key relationship among, dietary intervention (TRIF), gut microbiome structure and function. The preliminary results from study demonstrate significant potential for elucidating the mechanisms underlying gut microbiome stability and enhancing the effectiveness of microbiome-tailored interventions among the Pakistani populace. Nonetheless, extensive, and rigorous large-scale research on the Pakistani population is necessary to expound on the association between diet, gut microbiome, and overall health.

Keywords: gut microbiome, health, fasting, functionality

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525 Evaluation of Life Cycle Assessment in Furniture Manufacturing by Analytical Hierarchy Process

Authors: Majid Azizi, Payam Ghorbannezhad, Mostafa Amiri, Mohammad Ghofrani

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Environmental issues in the furniture industry are of great importance due to the use of natural materials such as wood and chemical substances like adhesives and paints. These issues encompass environmental conservation and managing pollution and waste generated. Improper use of wood resources, along with the use of chemicals and their release, leads to the depletion of natural resources, damage to forests, and the emission of greenhouse gases. Therefore, identifying influential indicators in the life cycle assessment of classic furniture and proposing solutions to reduce environmental impacts becomes crucial. In this study, the life cycle of classic furniture was evaluated using a hierarchical analytical process from cradle to grave. The life cycle assessment was employed to assess the environmental impacts of the furniture industry, ranging from raw material extraction to waste disposal and recycling. The most significant indicators in the furniture industry's production chain were also identified. The results indicated that the wood quality indicator is the most essential factor in the life cycle of classic furniture. Furthermore, the relative contribution of each type of traditional furniture was proposed concerning impact categories in the life cycle assessment. The results showed that among the three proposed types, the design and production of furniture with prefabricated parts had the most negligible impact in categories such as global warming potential and ozone layer depletion compared to furniture design with solid wood and furniture design with recycled components. Among the three suggested types of furniture to reduce environmental impacts, producing furniture with solid wood or other woods was chosen as the most crucial solution.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, analytic hierarchy process, environmental issues, furniture

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524 Implementing the Quality of Care Partnership to Reduce the Cost of Screenings for Sexually Transmitted Infections on a Southeastern College Campus

Authors: Amy Guidera, Steven Busby, Christian Williams, David Phillippi

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College students are a priority preventative healthcare population that can engage in high-risk behaviors which may concurrently increase the potential for unsafe sexual practices, including contracting sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Early education, screening, treatment, and partner notification are important interventions for breaking the chain of transmission and recurrence in relation to preventing poor health outcomes and mitigating college dropout rates. The aim of this quality improvement project was to determine if the reduction in STI screening costs for college students (aged 18-30 years old) would increase the amount of STI screenings conducted at a university health center over the course of an academic semester while evaluating our ability to achieve an improved quality of care at a reduced cost, along with improved STI reporting and documentation. This study was conducted through retrospective chart reviews of STI-related visits and utilized the RADAR matrix to provide a guiding, iterative mechanism to continuously reassess goals and outcomes defined in a memorandum of agreement (MOA) between a university health center and the state department of health (DOH) laboratory. The project failed to increase the amount of STI screenings, most likely due to the emergence of COVID-19, but resulted in improved quality of care for students, improved STI-related visit documentation and reporting, and significantly reduced costs for STI screening for collegiate students at a southeastern private university campus.

Keywords: college health, college students, preventive health, reproductive health, sexually transmitted infections, young adults

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
523 [Keynote Speech]: Determination of Naturally Occurring and Artificial Radionuclide Activity Concentrations in Marine Sediments in Western Marmara, Turkey

Authors: Erol Kam, Z. U. Yümün

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Natural and artificial radionuclides cause radioactive contamination in environments, just as the other non-biodegradable pollutants (heavy metals, etc.) sink to the sea floor and accumulate in sediments. Especially the habitat of benthic foraminifera living on the surface of sediments or in sediments at the seafloor are affected by radioactive pollution in the marine environment. Thus, it is important for pollution analysis to determine the radionuclides. Radioactive pollution accumulates in the lowest level of the food chain and reaches humans at the highest level. The more the accumulation, the more the environment is endangered. This study used gamma spectrometry to investigate the natural and artificial radionuclide distribution of sediment samples taken from living benthic foraminifera habitats in the Western Marmara Sea. The radionuclides, K-40, Cs-137, Ra-226, Mn 54, Zr-95+ and Th-232, were identified in the sediment samples. For this purpose, 18 core samples were taken from depths of about 25-30 meters in the Marmara Sea in 2016. The locations of the core samples were specifically selected exclusively from discharge points for domestic and industrial areas, port locations, and so forth to represent pollution in the study area. Gamma spectrometric analysis was used to determine the radioactive properties of sediments. The radionuclide concentration activity values in the sediment samples obtained were Cs-137=0.9-9.4 Bq/kg, Th-232=18.9-86 Bq/kg, Ra-226=10-50 Bq/kg, K-40=24.4–670 Bq/kg, Mn 54=0.71–0.9 Bq/kg and Zr-95+=0.18–0.19 Bq/kg. These values were compared with the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) data, and an environmental analysis was carried out. The Ra-226 series, the Th-232 series, and the K-40 radionuclides accumulate naturally and are increasing every day due to anthropogenic pollution. Although the Ra-226 values obtained in the study areas remained within normal limits according to the UNSCEAR values, the K-40, and Th-232 series values were found to be high in almost all the locations.

Keywords: Ra-226, Th-232, K-40, Cs-137, Mn 54, Zr-95+, radionuclides, Western Marmara Sea

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522 Chemiluminescent Detection of Microorganisms in Food/Drug Product Using Reducing Agents and Gold Nanoplates

Authors: Minh-Phuong Ngoc Bui, Abdennour Abbas

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Microbial spoilage of food/drug has been a constant nuisance and an unavoidable problem throughout history that affects food/drug quality and safety in a variety of ways. A simple and rapid test of fungi and bacteria in food/drugs and environmental clinical samples is essential for proper management of contamination. A number of different techniques have been developed for detection and enumeration of foodborne microorganism including plate counting, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), polymer chain reaction (PCR), nucleic acid sensor, electrical and microscopy methods. However, the significant drawbacks of these techniques are highly demand of operation skills and the time and cost involved. In this report, we introduce a rapid method for detection of bacteria and fungi in food/drug products using a specific interaction between a reducing agent (tris(2-carboxylethyl)phosphine (TCEP)) and the microbial surface proteins. The chemical reaction was transferred to a transduction system using gold nanoplates-enhanced chemiluminescence. We have optimized our nanoplates synthetic conditions, characterized the chemiluminescence parameters and optimized conditions for the microbial assay. The new detection method was applied for rapid detection of bacteria (E.coli sp. and Lactobacillus sp.) and fungi (Mucor sp.), with limit of detection as low as single digit cells per mL within 10 min using a portable luminometer. We expect our simple and rapid detection method to be a powerful alternative to the conventional plate counting and immunoassay methods for rapid screening of microorganisms in food/drug products.

Keywords: microorganism testing, gold nanoplates, chemiluminescence, reducing agents, luminol

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521 Automation of Pneumatic Seed Planter for System of Rice Intensification

Authors: Tukur Daiyabu Abdulkadir, Wan Ishak Wan Ismail, Muhammad Saufi Mohd Kassim

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Seed singulation and accuracy in seed spacing are the major challenges associated with the adoption of mechanical seeder for system of rice intensification. In this research the metering system of a pneumatic planter was modified and automated for increase precision to meet the demand of system of rice intensification SRI. The chain and sprocket mechanism of a conventional vacuum planter were now replaced with an electro mechanical system made up of a set of servo motors, limit switch, micro controller and a wheel divided into 10 equal angles. The circumference of the planter wheel was determined based on which seed spacing was computed and mapped to the angles of the metering wheel. A program was then written and uploaded to arduino micro controller and it automatically turns the seed plates for seeding upon covering the required distance. The servo motor was calibrated with the aid of labVIEW. The machine was then calibrated using a grease belt and varying the servo rpm through voltage variation between 37 rpm to 47 rpm until an optimum value of 40 rpm was obtained with a forward speed of 5 kilometers per hour. A pressure of 1.5 kpa was found to be optimum under which no skip or double was recorded. Precision in spacing (coefficient of variation), miss index, multiple index, doubles and skips were investigated. No skip or double was recorded both at laboratory and field levels. The operational parameters under consideration were both evaluated at laboratory and field. Even though there was little variation between the laboratory and field values of precision in spacing, multiple index and miss index, the different is not significant as both laboratory and field values fall within the acceptable range.

Keywords: automation, calibration, pneumatic seed planter, system of rice intensification

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520 Benchmarking Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Hotel Revenue

Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 105