Search results for: interval forecasts

Authors: Manisha Mukherjee, Diptarka Saha

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Reliable forecasts of univariate time series data are often necessary for several contexts. ARIMA models are quite popular among practitioners in this regard. Hence, choosing correct parameter values for ARIMA is a challenging yet imperative task. Thus, a stepwise algorithm is introduced to provide automatic and robust estimates for parameters (p; d; q)(P; D; Q) used in seasonal ARIMA models. This process is focused on improvising the overall quality of the estimates, and it alleviates the problems induced due to the unidimensional nature of the methods that are currently used such as auto.arima. The fast and automated search of parameter space also ensures reliable estimates of the parameters that possess several desirable qualities, consequently, resulting in higher test accuracy especially in the cases of noisy data. After vigorous testing on real as well as simulated data, the algorithm doesn’t only perform better than current state-of-the-art methods, it also completely obviates the need for human intervention due to its automated nature.

Keywords: time series, ARIMA, auto.arima, ARIMA parameters, forecast, R function

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Authors: Sachil Kumar, Anoop K.Verma, Uma Shankar Singh

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It’s extremely important to study postmortem interval in different causes of death since it assists in a great way in making an opinion on the exact cause of death following such incident often times. With diligent knowledge of the interval one could really say as an expert that the cause of death is not feigned hence there is a great need in evaluating such death to have been at the CRIME SCENE before performing an autopsy on such body. The approach described here is based on analyzing the degradation or proteolysis of a cardiac protein in cases of deaths due to burn as a marker of time since death. Cardiac tissue samples were collected from (n=6) medico-legal autopsies, (Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology), King George’s Medical University, Lucknow India, after informed consent from the relatives and studied post-mortem degradation by incubation of the cardiac tissue at room temperature (20±2 OC) for different time periods (~7.30, 18.20, 30.30, 41.20, 41.40, 54.30, 65.20, and 88.40 Hours). The cases included were the subjects of burn without any prior history of disease who died in the hospital and their exact time of death was known. The analysis involved extraction of the protein, separation by denaturing gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and visualization by Western blot using cTnT specific monoclonal antibodies. The area of the bands within a lane was quantified by scanning and digitizing the image using Gel Doc. As time postmortem progresses the intact cTnT band degrades to fragments that are easily detected by the monoclonal antibodies. A decreasing trend in the level of cTnT (% of intact) was found as the PM hours increased. A significant difference was observed between <15 h and other PM hours (p<0.01). Significant difference in cTnT level (% of intact) was also observed between 16-25 h and 56-65 h & >75 h (p<0.01). Western blot data clearly showed the intact protein at 42 kDa, three major (28 kDa, 30kDa, 10kDa) fragments, three additional minor fragments (12 kDa, 14kDa, and 15 kDa) and formation of low molecular weight fragments. Overall, both PMI and cardiac tissue of burned corpse had a statistically significant effect where the greatest amount of protein breakdown was observed within the first 41.40 Hrs and after it intact protein slowly disappears. If the percent intact cTnT is calculated from the total area integrated within a Western blot lane, then the percent intact cTnT shows a pseudo-first order relationship when plotted against the time postmortem. A strong significant positive correlation was found between cTnT and PM hours (r=0.87, p=0.0001). The regression analysis showed a good variability explained (R2=0.768) The post-mortem Troponin-T fragmentation observed in this study reveals a sequential, time-dependent process with the potential for use as a predictor of PMI in cases of burning.

Keywords: burn, degradation, postmortem interval, troponin-T

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Authors: Yu Menshikov

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In this paper the influence of errors of function derivatives in initial time which have been obtained by experiment (uncontrollable inaccuracy) to the results of inverse problem solution was investigated. It was shown that these errors distort the inverse problem solution as a rule near the beginning of interval where the solution are analyzed. Several methods for remove the influence of uncontrollable inaccuracy have been suggested.

Keywords: inverse problems, filtration, uncontrollable inaccuracy

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Authors: Dimitriu Corneliu-Ioan, Gheorghe FrațIlă

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Romania has one of the highest rates of road deaths among European Union Member States, and there is a concern that the country will not meet its goal of "zero deaths" by 2050. The European Union also aims to halve the number of people seriously injured in road accidents by 2030. Therefore, there is a need to improve road infrastructure safety management in Romania. The aim of this study is to analyze road accident data through statistical methods to assess the current state of road infrastructure safety in Bucharest. The study also aims to identify trends and make forecasts regarding serious road accidents and their consequences. The objective is to provide insights that can help prioritize measures to increase road safety, particularly in urban areas. The research utilizes statistical analysis methods, including exploratory analysis and descriptive statistics. Databases from the Traffic Police and the Romanian Road Authority are analyzed using Excel. Road risks are compared with the main causes of road accidents to identify correlations. The study emphasizes the need for better quality and more diverse collection of road accident data for effective analysis in the field of road infrastructure engineering. The research findings highlight the importance of prioritizing measures to improve road safety in urban areas, where serious accidents and their consequences are more frequent. There is a correlation between the measures ordered by road safety auditors and the main causes of serious accidents in Bucharest. The study also reveals the significant social costs of road accidents, amounting to approximately 3% of GDP, emphasizing the need for collaboration between local and central administrations in allocating resources for road safety. This research contributes to a clearer understanding of the current road infrastructure safety situation in Romania. The findings provide critical insights that can aid decision-makers in allocating resources efficiently and institutionally cooperating to achieve sustainable road safety. The data used for this study are collected from the Traffic Police and the Romanian Road Authority. The data processing involves exploratory analysis and descriptive statistics using the Excel tool. The analysis allows for a better understanding of the factors contributing to the current road safety situation and helps inform managerial decisions to eliminate or reduce road risks. The study addresses the state of road infrastructure safety in Bucharest and analyzes the trends and forecasts regarding serious road accidents and their consequences. It studies the correlation between road safety measures and the main causes of serious accidents. To improve road safety, cooperation between local and central administrations towards joint financial efforts is important. This research highlights the need for statistical data processing methods to substantiate managerial decisions in road infrastructure management. It emphasizes the importance of improving the quality and diversity of road accident data collection. The research findings provide a critical perspective on the current road safety situation in Romania and offer insights to identify appropriate solutions to reduce the number of serious road accidents in the future.

Keywords: road death rate, strategic objective, serious road accidents, road safety, statistical analysis

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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A method is proposed for stable detection of seismoacoustic sources in C-OTDR systems that guarantee given upper bounds for probabilities of type I and type II errors. Properties of the proposed method are rigorously proved. The results of practical applications of the proposed method in a real C-OTDR-system are presented in this.

Keywords: guaranteed detection, C-OTDR systems, change point, interval estimation

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Authors: Gabrielle O'Donoghue

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Background: Pre-operative radiographs facilitate assessment and treatment planning in minor oral surgery. Quality assurance for dental radiography advocates the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle in collecting accurate diagnostic information. Aims: To audit the quality of digital intraoral periapicals (IOPAs) taken prior to dental extractions in a metropolitan general dental practice setting. Standards: The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) guidance outlines three grades of radiograph quality: excellent (Grade 1 > 70% of total exposures), diagnostically acceptable (Grade 2 <20%), and unacceptable (Grade 3 <10%). Methodology: A study of pre-operative radiographs taken prior to dental extractions across 12 private general dental practices in a large metropolitan area by 44 practitioners. A total of 725 extractions were assessed, allowing 258 IOPAs to be reviewed in one audit cycle. Results: First cycle: Of 258 IOPAs: 223(86.4%) scored Grade 1, 27(10.5%) Grade 2, and 8(3.1%) Grade 3. The standard was met. 35 dental extractions were performed without an available pre-operative radiograph. Action Plan & Recommendations: Results were distributed to all staff and a continuous professional development evening organized to outline recommendations to improve image quality. A second audit cycle is proposed at a six-month interval to review the recommendations and appraise results. Conclusion: The overall standard of radiographs met the published guidelines. A significant improvement in the number of procedures undertaken without pre-operative imaging is expected at a six-month interval period. An investigation into undiagnostic imaging and associated adverse patient outcomes is being considered. Maintenance of the standards achieved is predicted in the second audit cycle to ensure consistent high quality imaging.

Keywords: audit, oral radiology, oral surgery, periapical radiographs, quality assurance

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Authors: Florian Kleber, Martin Kampel

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The increasing demand of gallium, indium and rare-earth elements for the production of electronics, e.g. solid state-lighting, photovoltaics, integrated circuits, and liquid crystal displays, will exceed the world-wide supply according to current forecasts. Recycling systems to reclaim these materials are not yet in place, which challenges the sustainability of these technologies. This paper proposes a multispectral imaging system as a basis for a vision based recognition system for valuable components of electronics waste. Multispectral images intend to enhance the contrast of images of printed circuit boards (single components, as well as labels) for further analysis, such as optical character recognition and entire printed circuit board recognition. The results show that a higher contrast is achieved in the near infrared compared to ultraviolet and visible light.

Keywords: electronics waste, multispectral imaging, printed circuit boards, rare-earth elements

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Authors: I. Alhassan, A. M. Saddiq, A. G. Gashua, K. K. Gwio-Kura

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The main objective of any irrigation program is the development of an efficient water management system to sustain crop growth and development and avoid physiological water stress in the growing plants. Field experiment to evaluate the effects of some soil moisture conservation practices on yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of maize was carried out in three locations (i.e. Mubi and Yola in the northern Guinea Savannah and Ganye in the southern Guinea Savannah of Adamawa State, Nigeria) during the dry seasons of 2013 and 2014. The experiment consisted of three different irrigation levels (7, 10 and 12 day irrigation intervals), two levels of mulch (mulch and un-mulched) and two tillage practices (no tillage and minimum tillage) arranged in a randomized complete block design with split-split plot arrangement and replicated three times. The Blaney-Criddle method was used for measuring crop evapotranspiration. The results indicated that seven-day irrigation intervals and mulched treatment were found to have significant effect (P>0.05) on grain yield and water use efficiency in all the locations. The main effect of tillage was non-significant (P<0.05) on grain yield and WUE. The interaction effects of irrigation and mulch were significant (P>0.05) on grain yield and WUE at Mubi and Yola. Generally, higher grain yield and WUE were recorded on mulched and seven-day irrigation intervals, whereas lower values were recorded on un-mulched with 12-day irrigation intervals. Tillage exerts little influence on the yield and WUE. Results from Ganye were found to be generally higher than those recorded in Mubi and Yola; it also showed that an irrigation interval of 10 days with mulching could be adopted for the Ganye area, while seven days interval is more appropriate for Mubi and Yola.

Keywords: irrigation, maize, mulching, tillage, savanna

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

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The research focuses on reducing food waste in the restaurant industry. A study has been conducted on the chain of retail restaurant outlets. It has been observed that the food wastages are due to the inefficient inventory management systems practiced in the restaurant outlets. The major food items which are wasted more in quantity are being selected across the retail chain outlets. A moving average forecasting method has been applied for the selected food items so that their future demand could be predicted accurately and food wastage could be avoided. It has been found that the moving average prediction method helps in predicting forecasts accurately. The demand values obtained from the moving average method have been compared to the actual demand values and are found to be similar with minimum variations. The inventory optimization technique helps in reducing food wastage in restaurant supply chain outlets.

Keywords: food wastage, restaurant supply chain, inventory optimisation, demand forecasting

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Authors: A. Ozel

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The ductile to brittle transition temperature is a very important criterion that is used for selection of materials in some applications, especially in low-temperature conditions. For that reason, in this study transition temperature of as-cast and austempered unalloyed ductile iron in the temperature interval from -60 to +100 degrees C have been investigated. The microstructures of samples were examined by light microscope. The impact energy values obtained from the experiments were found to depend on the austempering time and temperature.

Keywords: Austempered Ductile Iron (ADI), Charpy test, microstructure, transition temperature

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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Authors: Ryo Shikimoto, Hidehito Niimura, Hisashi Kida, Kota Suzuki, Yukiko Miyasaka, Masaru Mimura

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Introduction: In Japan, the most aged country in the world, it is important to explore predictive factors of cognitive function among the elderly. Coping behavior relieves chronic stress and improves lifestyle, and consequently may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment. One of the most widely investigated frameworks evaluated in previous studies is approach-oriented and avoidance-oriented coping strategies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between cognitive function and coping strategies among elderly residents in urban areas of Japan. Method: This is a part of the cross-sectional Arakawa geriatric cohort study for 1,099 residents (aged 65 to 86 years; mean [SD] = 72.9 [5.2]). Participants were assessed for cognitive function using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and diagnosed by psychiatrists in face-to-face interviews. They were then investigated for their each coping behaviors and coping strategies (approach- and avoidance-oriented coping) using stress and coping inventory. A multiple regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between MMSE score and each coping strategy. Results: Of the 1,099 patients, the mean MMSE score of the study participants was 27.2 (SD = 2.7), and the numbers of the diagnosis of normal, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia were 815 (74.2%), 248 (22.6%), and 14 (1.3%), respectively. Approach-oriented coping score was significantly associated with MMSE score (B [partial regression coefficient] = 0.12, 95% confidence interval = 0.05 to 0.19) after adjusting for confounding factors including age, sex, and education. Avoidance-oriented coping did not show a significant association with MMSE score (B [partial regression coefficient] = -0.02, 95% confidence interval = -0.09 to 0.06). Conclusion: Approach-oriented coping was clearly associated with neurocognitive function in the Japanese population. A future longitudinal trial is warranted to investigate the protective effects of coping behavior on cognitive function.

Keywords: approach-oriented coping, cognitive impairment, coping behavior, dementia

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Authors: Ahmed Shaik

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Estimates are very critical in accounting and Financial Reporting cannot be complete without these estimates. There is a long list of accounting estimates that are required to be made to compute Net Income and to determine the value of assets and liabilities. To name a few, valuation of inventory, depreciation, valuation of goodwill, provision for bad debts and estimated warranties, etc. require the use of different valuation models and forecasts. Different business entities under the same industry may use different approaches to measure the value of financial items being reported in Income Statement and Balance Sheet. The disclosure notes do not provide enough details of the approach used by a business entity to arrive at the value of a financial item. Lack of details in the disclosure notes makes it difficult to compare the financial performance of one business entity with the other in the same industry. This paper is an attempt to identify the lack of enough information about accounting estimates in disclosure notes, the impact of the absence of details of accounting estimates on the comparability of financial data and financial analysis. An attempt is made to suggest the detailed disclosure while taking care of the cost and benefit of making such disclosure.

Keywords: accounting estimates, disclosure notes, financial reporting, transparency

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Authors: Pascal François Faye, Baye Mor Sall, Bineta Dembele, Jeanne Ana Awa Faye

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In agriculture, estimating crop yields is key to improving productivity and decision-making processes such as financial market forecasting and addressing food security issues. The main objective of this paper is to have tools to predict and improve the accuracy of crop yield forecasts using machine learning (ML) algorithms such as CART , KNN and SVM . We developed a mobile app and a web app that uses these algorithms for practical use by farmers. The tests show that our system (collection and deployment architecture, web application and mobile application) is operational and validates empirical knowledge on agro-climatic parameters in addition to proactive decision-making support. The experimental results obtained on the agricultural data, the performance of the ML algorithms are compared using cross-validation in order to identify the most effective ones following the agricultural data. The proposed applications demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in predicting crop yields and provides timely and accurate responses to farmers for decision support.

Keywords: prediction, machine learning, artificial intelligence, digital agriculture

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Authors: Igor Guatelli

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The universe of aesthetic perception entails impasses about sensitive divergences that each text or visual object may be subjected to. If approached through intertextuality that is not based on the misleading notion of kinships or similarities a priori admissible, the possibility of anachronistic, heterogeneous - and non-diachronic - assemblies can enhance the emergence of interval movements, intermediate, and conflicting, conducive to a method of reading, interpreting, and assigning meaning that escapes the rigid antinomies of the mere being and non-being of things. In negative, they operate in a relationship built by the lack of an adjusted meaning set by their positive existences, with no remainders; the generated interval becomes the remnant of each of them; it is the opening that obscures the stable positions of each one. Without the negative of absence, of that which is always missing or must be missing in a text, concept, or image made positive by history, nothing is perceived beyond what has been already given. Pairings or binary oppositions cannot lead only to functional syntheses; on the contrary, methodological disturbances accumulated by the approximation of signs and entities can initiate a process of becoming as an opening to an unforeseen other, transformation until a moment when the difficulties of [re]conciliation become the mainstay of a future of that sign/entity, not envisioned a priori. A counter-history can emerge from these unprecedented, misadjusted approaches, beginnings of unassigned injunctions and disjunctions, in short, difficult alliances that open cracks in a supposedly cohesive history, chained in its apparent linearity with no remains, understood as a categorical historical imperative. Interstices are minority fields that, because of their opening, are capable of causing opacity in that which, apparently, presents itself with irreducible clarity. Resulting from an incomplete and maladjusted [at the least dual] marriage between the signs/entities that originate them, this interval may destabilize and cause disorder in these entities and their own meanings. The interstitials offer a hyphenated relationship: a simultaneous union and separation, a spacing between the entity’s identity and its otherness or, alterity. One and the other may no longer be seen without the crack or fissure that now separates them, uniting, by a space-time lapse. Ontological, semantic shifts are caused by this fissure, an absence between one and the other, one with and against the other. Based on an improbable approximation between some conceptual and semantic shifts within the design production of architect Rem Koolhaas and the textual production of the philosopher Jacques Derrida, this article questions the notion of unity, coherence, affinity, and complementarity in the process of construction of thought from these ontological, epistemological, and semiological fissures that rattle the signs/entities and their stable meanings. Fissures in a thought that is considered coherent, cohesive, formatted are the negativity that constitutes the interstices that allow us to move towards what still remains as non-identity, which allows us to begin another story.

Keywords: clearing, interstice, negative, remnant, spectrum

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Authors: Tae-Hoon Kim, Kwon-Ha Yoon, Hong Young Jun, Ki-Jong Kim, Young Hwan Lee, Myeung Su Lee, Keum Ha Choi, Ki Jung Yun, Eun Young Cho, Yong-Yeon Jeong, Chung-Hwan Jun

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Purpose: To assess the changes of hepatic metabolite for differentiation between non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and simple steatosis on proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) in both humans and animal model. Methods: The local institutional review board approved this study and subjects gave written informed consent. 1H-MRS measurements were performed on a localized voxel of the liver using a point-resolved spectroscopy (PRESS) sequence and hepatic metabolites of alanine (Ala), lactate/triglyceride (Lac/TG), and TG were analyzed in NASH, simple steatosis and control groups. The group difference was tested with the ANOVA and Tukey’s post-hoc tests, and diagnostic accuracy was tested by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. The associations between metabolic concentration and pathologic grades or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) activity scores were assessed by the Pearson’s correlation. Results: Patient with NASH showed the elevated Ala(p<0.001), Lac/TG(p < 0.001), TG(p < 0.05) concentration when compared with patients who had simple steatosis and healthy controls. The NASH patients were higher levels in Ala(mean±SEM, 52.5±8.3 vs 2.0±0.9; p < 0.001), Lac/TG(824.0±168.2 vs 394.1±89.8; p < 0.05) than simple steatosis. The area under the ROC curve to distinguish NASH from simple steatosis was 1.00 (95% confidence interval; 1.00, 1.00) with Ala and 0.782 (95% confidence interval; 0.61, 0.96) with Lac/TG. The Ala and Lac/TG levels were well correlated with steatosis grade, lobular inflammation, and NAFLD activity scores. The metabolic changes in human were reproducible to a mice model induced by streptozotocin injection and a high-fat diet. Conclusion: 1H-MRS would be useful for differentiation of patients with NASH and simple hepatic steatosis.

Keywords: non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 1H MR spectroscopy, hepatic metabolites

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Authors: Norbert Csizmadia

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The 21st Century's main power centers are the cities. More than 52% of the world’s population lives in cities, in particular in the megacities which have a population over 10 million people and is still growing. According to various research and forecasts, the main economic concentration will be in 40 megacities and global centers. Based on various competitiveness analyzes and indices, global city centers, and city networks are outlined, but if we look at other aspects of urban development like complexity, connectivity, creativity, technological development, viability, green cities, pedestrian and child friendly cities, creative and cultural centers, cultural spaces and knowledge centers, we get a city competitiveness index with quite new complex indicators. The research shows this result. In addition to the megacities and the global centers, with the investigation of functionality, we got 64 so-called ‘fusiononopolis’ (i.e., fusion-polis) which stand for the most decisive economic power centers of the 21st century. In this city competition Asian centers considerably rise, as the world's functional city competitiveness index is being formed.

Keywords: economic geography, human geography, technological development, urbanism

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Authors: Chu Chen, Giorgio Gotti, Tony Kang, Michael Wolfe

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This study examines the role of codes of ethics in reducing the extent to which managers’ act opportunistically in reporting earnings. Corporate codes of ethics, by clarifying the boundaries of ethical corporate behaviors and making relevant social norms more salient, have the potential to deter managers from engaging in opportunistic financial reporting practices. In a sample of international companies, we find that the quality of corporate codes of ethics is associated with higher earnings quality, i.e., lower discretionary accruals. Our results are confirmed for a subsample of firms more likely to be engaging in opportunistic reporting behavior, i.e., firms that just meet or beat analysts’ forecasts. Further, codes of ethics play a greater role in reducing earnings management for firms in countries with weaker investor protection mechanisms. Our results suggest that corporate codes of ethics can be a viable alternative to country-level investor protection mechanisms in curbing aggressive reporting behaviors.

Keywords: corporate ethics policy, code of ethics, business ethics, earnings discretion, accruals

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Authors: Rakan Hassan M. Alzahrani, Ziyad Alzahrani, Bader Bashrahil, Abdulrahman Elyasi, Abdullah a Ghaddaf, Rayan Alzahrani, Mohammed Alkathlan, Nawaf Alghamdi, Dakheelallah Almutairi

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Background: Corticosteroid irrigations, which regularly involve the off-label use of budesonide mixed with normal saline in high volume Sino-nasal irrigations, have been more commonly used in the management of post-operative chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS). Objective: This article attempted to measure the efficacy of post-operative budesonide nasal irrigation compared to normal saline-alone nasal irrigation in the management of chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) through a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods: The databases PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched by two independent authors. Only RCTs comparing budesonide irrigation to normal saline alone irrigation for CRS with or without polyposis after functional endoscopic sinus surgery (FESS) were eligible. A random effect analysis model of the reported CRS-related quality of life (QOL) measures and the objective endoscopic assessment scales of the disease was done. Results: Only 6 RCTs met the eligibility criteria, with a total number of participants of 356. Compared to normal saline irrigation, budesonide nasal irrigation showed statically significant improvements in both the CRS-related quality of life (QOL) and the endoscopic findings (MD= -4.22 confidence interval [CI]: -5.63, -2.82 [P < 0.00001]), (SMD= -0.50 confidence interval [CI]: -0.93, -0.06 [P < 0.03]) respectively. Conclusion: Both intervention arms showed improvements in CRS-related QOL and endoscopic findings in post-FESS chronic rhinosinusitis with or without polyposis. However, budesonide irrigation seems to have a slight edge over conventional normal saline irrigation with no reported serious side effects, including hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis suppression.

Keywords: Budesonide, chronic rhinosinusitis, corticosteroids, nasal irrigation, normal saline

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Authors: Chin-Yun Chen

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Numerical integration is an essential tool for deriving different physical quantities in engineering and science. The effectiveness of a numerical integrator depends on different factors, where the crucial one is the error estimation. This work presents an error estimator that combines a derivative free method to improve the performance of verified numerical quadrature.

Keywords: numerical quadrature, error estimation, derivative free method, interval computation

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Authors: Abdelmoniem A. Attaelmanan, Ahmed A. H. Siddig

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This study was conducted in light of continual global climate changes that projected increasing aridity, changes in soil fertility, and pollution. Plant growth and development largely depend on the combination of availing water and nutrients in the soil. Changes in the climate and atmospheric chemistry can cause serious effects on these growth factors. Plant carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and hydrogen (H) play a fundamental role in the maintenance of ecosystem structure and function. Hashab (Acacia senegal), which produces gum Arabic, supports dryland ecosystems in tropical zones by its potentiality to restore degraded soils; hence it is ecologically and economically important for the dry areas of sub-Saharan Africa. The study aims at investigating the effects of water stress (simulated drought) and poor soil type on Acacia senegal C, N, and H contents. Seven days old seedlings were assigned to the treatments in Split- plot design for four weeks. The main plot is irrigation interval (well-watered and water-stressed), and the subplot is soil types (silt and sand soils). Seedling's C%, N%, and H% were measured using CHNS-O Analyzer and applying Standard Test Method. Irrigation intervals and soil types had no effects on seedlings and leaves C%, N%, and H%, irrigation interval had affected stem C and H%, both irrigation intervals and soil types had affected root N% and interaction effect of water and soil was found on leaves and root's N%. Synthesis application of well-watered irrigation with soil that is rich in N and other nutrients would result in the greatest seedling C, N, and H content which will enhance growth and biomass accumulation and can play a crucial role in ecosystem productivity and services in the dryland regions.

Keywords: Acacia senegal, Africa, climate change, drylands, nutrients biomass, Sub-Saharan, Sudan

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Authors: Victoria Yu. Garnova, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Sergey V. Khudyakov, Valeriy A. Tovstonog, Svyatoslav V. Cheranev

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Long-term scientific forecasts confirm that diesel engines still will be the basis of the transport and stationary power in the near future. This is explained by their high efficiency and profitability compared to other types of heat engines. In the automotive industry carried basic researches are aimed at creating a new generation of diesel engines with reduced exhaust emissions (with stable performance) determining the minimum impact on the environment. The application of thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) and especially their modifications based on semitransparent ceramic materials allows solving this problem. For such researches, the preliminary stage of testing of physical characteristics materials and coatings especially with semitransparent properties the authors proposed experimental operating innovative radiative-and-convective cycling simulator. This setup contains original radiation sources (imitator) with tunable spectrum for modeling integral flux up to several MW/m2.

Keywords: environment saving, radiative and convective cycling simulator, semitransparent ceramic coatings, imitator radiant energy

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Authors: Luksanaporn Krungkraipetch

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A pterygium is an eye surface lesion that begins in the limbal conjunctiva and progresses to the cornea. The lesion is more common in the nasal limbus than in the temporal, and it has a distinctive wing-like aspect. Indications for surgery, in decreasing order of significance, are grown over the corneal center, decreased vision due to corneal deformation, documented growth, sensations of discomfort, and aesthetic concerns. Recurrent pterygium results in the loss of time, the expense of therapy, and the potential for vision impairment. The objective of this study is to find out how often the recurrence of pterygium after surgery occurs, what effect the surgery technique has, and what causes them to come back in people with pterygium. Materials and Methods: Observational case control in retrospect: the study involves a retrospective analysis of 164 patient samples. Data analysis is descriptive statistics analysis, i.e., basic data details about pterygium surgery and the risk of recurrent pterygium. For factor analysis, the inferential statistics odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) ANOVA are utilized. A p-value of 0.05 was deemed statistically important. Results: The majority of patients, according to the results, were female (60.4%). Twenty-four of the 164 (14.6%) patients who underwent surgery exhibited recurrent pterygium. The average age is 55.33 years old. Postoperative recurrence was reported in 19 cases (79.3%) of bare sclera techniques and five cases (20.8%) of conjunctival autograft techniques. The recurrence interval is 10.25 months, with the most common (54.17 percent) being 12 months. In 91.67 percent of cases, all follow-ups are successful. The most common recurrence level is 1 (25%). A surgical complication is a subconjunctival hemorrhage (33.33 percent). Comparing the surgeries done on people with recurrent pterygium didn't show anything important (F = 1.13, p = 0.339). Age significantly affected the recurrence of pterygium (95% CI, 6.79-63.56; OR = 20.78, P 0.001). Conclusion: This study discovered a 14.6% rate of pterygium recurrence after pterygium surgery. Across all surgeries and patients, the rate of recurrence was four times higher with the bare sclera method than with conjunctival autograft. The researchers advise selecting a more conventional surgical technique to avoid a recurrence.

Keywords: pterygium, recurrence pterygium, pterygium surgery, excision pterygium

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Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar

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Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.

Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve

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Authors: Dimuthu Manage

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Introduction: The prevalence of obesity and obesity-related non-communicable diseases are becoming a massive health concern in the whole world. Physical activity is recognized as an effective solution for this matter. The published data on the effectiveness of High-Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) in improving health parameters in overweight and obese individuals in Sri Lanka is sparse. Hence this study is conducted. Methodology: This is a quasi-experimental study that was conducted at the Sports medicine clinic, General Hospital, Kalutara. Participants have engaged in a programme of HIIT three times per week for six weeks. Data collection was based on precise measurements by using structured and validated methods. Ethical clearance was obtained. Results: Registered number for the study was 48, and only 52% have completed the study. The mean age was 32 (SD=6.397) years, with 64% males. All the anthropometric measurements which were assessed (i.e. waist circumference(P<0.001), weight(P<0.001) and BMI(P<0.001)), body fat percentage(P<0.001), VO2 max(P<0.001), and lipid profile (ie. HDL(P=0.016), LDL(P<0.001), cholesterol(P<0.001), triglycerides(P<0.010) and LDL: HDL(P<0.001)) had shown statistically significant improvement after the intervention with the HIIT programme. Conclusions: This study confirms HIIT as a time-saving and effective exercise method, which helps in preventing obesity as well as non-communicable diseases. HIIT ameliorates body anthropometry, fat percentage, cardiopulmonary status, and lipid profile in overweight and obese individuals markedly. As with the majority of studies, the design of the current study is subject to some limitations. The first is the study focused on a correlational study. If it is a comparative study, comparing it with other methods of training programs would have given more validity. Although the validated tools used to measure variables and the same tools used in pre and post-exercise occasions with the available facilities, it would have been better to measure some of them using gold-standard methods. However, this evidence should be further assessed in larger-scale trials using comparative groups to generalize the efficacy of the HIIT exercise program.

Keywords: HIIT, lipid profile, BMI, VO2 max

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Authors: Zahra Okba, Hassan El Ouizgani

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Anticipating an individual’s behavior to the environmental factors allows for having relevant ecological forecasts. The Dynamic Energy Budget model facilitates prediction, and it is mechanically dependent on biology to abiotic factors but is generally field verified under relatively stable physical conditions. Dynamic Energy Budget Theory (DEB) is a robust framework that can link the individual state to environmental factors, and in our work, we have tested its ability to account for variability by looking at model predictions in the Agadir Bay, which is characterized by a semi-arid climate and temperature is strongly influenced by the trade winds front and nutritional availability. From previous works in our laboratory, we have collected different biological DEB model parameters of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussel in Agadir Bay. We mathematically formulated the equations that make up the DEB model and then adjusted our analytical functions with the observed biological data of our local species. We also assumed the condition of constant immersion, and then we integrated the details of the tidal cycles to calculate the metabolic depression at low tide. Our results are quite satisfactory concerning the length and shape of the shell in one part and the gonadosomatic index in another part.

Keywords: dynamic energy budget, mussels, mytilus galloprovincialis, agadir bay, DEB model

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Authors: Tommy Krieger, Klaus Gruendler

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We present a novel approach for measuring democracy, which enables a very detailed and sensitive index. This method is based on Support Vector Machines, a mathematical algorithm for pattern recognition. Our implementation evaluates 188 countries in the period between 1981 and 2011. The Support Vector Machines Democracy Index (SVMDI) is continuously on the 0-1-Interval and robust to variations in the numerical process parameters. The algorithm introduced here can be used for every concept of democracy without additional adjustments, and due to its flexibility it is also a valuable tool for comparison studies.

Keywords: democracy, democracy index, machine learning, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Ryan Lindsey, Lora Pitman

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Forecasts about the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the 2024–2029 timeframe show that the fastest developing cybersecurity market is the Asia-Pacific. Only two countries from this region – Singapore and Malaysia, ranked 4th and 5th by the latest International Telecommunications Union report from 2020, are present in the list of top 10 countries with highest global cybersecurity index scores. Therefore, this study seeks to take a closer look at the rapid progress of Singapore (CAGR of 16.14%) and Malaysia (CAGR of 16.84%) in the area of cybersecurity. More specifically, it aims to respond to the question what developments made these countries rank so high. The focus of the analysis is on a 10-year period (2013-2023) and the data for this qualitative study will be gathered from news and reports by NGOs, the two countries’ governments, and the private sector. Variables for this research include five categories: new policy and legislation related to cybersecurity, technical developments and capabilities that can be used for cyber defense, development of domestic units and organizations, efforts to cooperate with other entities. Results are then discussed and recommendations, based on them, are made so that a successful path toward notable improvement can be outlined for other countries as well.

Keywords: cybersecurity, development, Southeast Asia, Singapore, Malaysia

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Authors: Rahou Mohamed , Sebaa Fethi, Cheikh Abdelmadjid

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Manufacturing tolerancing is intended to determine the intermediate geometrical and dimensional states of the part during its manufacturing process. These manufacturing dimensions also serve to satisfy not only the functional requirements given in the definition drawing but also the manufacturing constraints, for example geometrical defects of the machine, vibration, and the wear of the cutting tool. The choice of positioning has an important influence on the cost and quality of manufacture. To avoid this problem, a two-step approach have been developed. The first step is dedicated to the determination of the optimum position. As for the second step, a study was carried out for the tightening effect on the tolerance interval.

Keywords: dispersion, tolerance, manufacturing, position

Procedia PDF Downloads 308