Search results for: interval DEA

Authors: Ahmed Torad

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Background: Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a prevalent musculoskeletal condition characterized by pain and functional impairment. While various rehabilitation approaches have been employed, the effectiveness of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) compared to traditional rehabilitation exercises remains unclear. Objective: This randomized controlled trial aimed to compare the effects of HIIT and traditional rehabilitation exercises on pain reduction, functional improvement, and quality of life in individuals with knee OA. Methods: A total of 120 participants diagnosed with knee OA were randomly allocated into two groups: the HIIT group (n=60) and the traditional rehabilitation group (n=60). The HIIT group participated in a 12-week supervised program consisting of high-intensity interval exercises, while the traditional rehabilitation group followed a conventional physiotherapy regimen. Outcome measures included visual analog scale (VAS) pain scores, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), and the Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36) at baseline and after the intervention period. Results: Both groups showed significant improvements in pain scores, functional outcomes (WOMAC), and quality of life (SF-36) after 12 weeks of intervention. However, the HIIT group demonstrated superior pain reduction (p<0.001), functional improvement (p<0.001), and physical health-related quality of life (p=0.002) compared to the traditional rehabilitation group. No significant differences were observed in mental health-related quality of life between the two groups. Conclusion: High-intensity interval training appears to be a more effective rehabilitation approach than traditional exercises for individuals with knee osteoarthritis, resulting in greater pain reduction, improved function, and enhanced physical health-related quality of life. These findings suggest that HIIT may represent a promising intervention strategy for managing knee OA and enhancing the overall well-being of affected individuals.

Keywords: knee osteoarthritis, high-intensity interval training, traditional rehabilitation exercises, randomized controlled trial, pain reduction, functional improvement, quality of life

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Authors: O. Abiodun Adeyinka, B. Adeyemo Adesesan

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The forensic use of handwriting depends on the analysis, comparison, and evaluation decisions made by forensic document examiners. When using biometric technology in forensic applications, it is necessary to compute Likelihood Ratio (LR) for quantifying strength of evidence under two competing hypotheses, namely the prosecution and the defense hypotheses wherein a set of assumptions and methods for a given data set will be made. It is therefore important to know how repeatable and reproducible our estimated LR is. This paper evaluated the accuracy and reproducibility of examiners' decisions. Confidence interval for the estimated LR were presented so as not get an incorrect estimate that will be used to deliver wrong judgment in the court of Law. The estimate of LR is fundamentally a Bayesian concept and we used two LR estimators, namely Logistic Regression (LoR) and Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) for this paper. The repeatability evaluation was carried out by retesting the initial experiment after an interval of six months to observe whether examiners would repeat their decisions for the estimated LR. The experimental results, which are based on handwriting dataset, show that LR has different confidence intervals which therefore implies that LR cannot be estimated with the same certainty everywhere. Though the LoR performed better than the KDE when tested using the same dataset, the two LR estimators investigated showed a consistent region in which LR value can be estimated confidently. These two findings advance our understanding of LR when used in computing the strength of evidence in handwriting using forensics.

Keywords: confidence interval, handwriting, kernel density estimator, KDE, logistic regression LoR, repeatability, reproducibility

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Authors: Anne-Loes K. Warps, Rob A. E. M. Tollenaar, Pieter J. Tanis, Jan Willem T. Dekker

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Anastomotic leakage after colorectal cancer surgery remains a severe complication. Early diagnosis and treatment are essential to prevent further adverse outcomes. In the literature, it has been suggested that earlier reintervention is associated with better survival, but anastomotic leakage can occur with a highly variable time interval to index surgery. This study aims to evaluate the time-interval between rectal cancer resection with primary anastomosis creation and reoperation, in relation to short-term outcomes, stratified for the use of a defunctioning stoma. Methods: Data of all primary rectal cancer patients that underwent elective resection with primary anastomosis during 2013-2019 were extracted from the Dutch ColoRectal Audit. Analyses were stratified for defunctioning stoma. Anastomotic leakage was defined as a defect of the intestinal wall or abscess at the site of the colorectal anastomosis for which a reintervention was required within 30 days. Primary outcomes were new stoma construction, mortality, ICU admission, prolonged hospital stay and readmission. The association between time to reoperation and outcome was evaluated in three ways: Per 2 days, before versus on or after postoperative day 5 and during primary versus readmission. Results: In total 10,772 rectal cancer patients underwent resection with primary anastomosis. A defunctioning stoma was made in 46.6% of patients. These patients had a lower anastomotic leakage rate (8.2% vs. 11.6%, p < 0.001) and less often underwent a reoperation (45.3% vs. 88.7%, p < 0.001). Early reoperations (< 5 days) had the highest complication and mortality rate. Thereafter the distribution of adverse outcomes was more spread over the 30-day postoperative period for patients with a defunctioning stoma. Median time-interval from primary resection to reoperation for defunctioning stoma patients was 7 days (IQR 4-14) versus 5 days (IQR 3-13 days) for no-defunctioning stoma patients. The mortality rate after primary resection and reoperation were comparable (resp. for defunctioning vs. no-defunctioning stoma 1.0% vs. 0.7%, P=0.106 and 5.0% vs. 2.3%, P=0.107). Conclusion: This study demonstrated that early reinterventions after anastomotic leakage are associated with worse outcomes (i.e. mortality). Maybe the combination of a physiological dip in the cellular immune response and release of cytokines following surgery, as well as a release of endotoxins caused by the bacteremia originating from the leakage, leads to a more profound sepsis. Another explanation might be that early leaks are not contained to the pelvis, leading to a more profound sepsis requiring early reoperations. Leakage with or without defunctioning stoma resulted in a different type of reinterventions and time-interval between surgery and reoperation.

Keywords: rectal cancer surgery, defunctioning stoma, anastomotic leakage, time-interval to reoperation

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Authors: Sdiqeh Jalali, M. R. Khazdair

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Liver X receptors (LXR) have an essential role in the regulation of cholesterol metabolism, and their activation increase ABCG5 and ABCG8 genes expression for the improvement of cholesterol excretion from the body during reverse cholesterol transport (RCT). The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of high-intensity interval (HIT) and low intensity continuous (LIT) trainings on gene expression of these substances after a high-fat diet in Wistar rats. Materials and Methods: Fifteen male Wistar rats were divided into 3 groups: control group (n = 5), HIT exercise group (n = 5) and LIT exercise group (n = 5). All groups used a high-fat diet for 13 weeks, and the HIT and LIT groups performed the specific training program. The expression of LXRβ, ABCG5, and ABCG8 genes was measured after the training period. Findings: Data analysis showed significantly higher levels of LXRβ, ABCG5, and ABCG8 gene expression in HIT and LIT groups compared to the control group (P ≤ 0.05). Conclusion: HIT and LIT trainings after a high-fat diet have beneficial effects on RCT that prevent heart attack. Also, HIT training may have a greater effect on cholesterol excretion during the reverse cholesterol transport mechanism than LIT.

Keywords: liver X receptor, atherosclerosis, interval training, endurance training

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Authors: Helen L. Hein, Joachim Schwarte

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As a pillar of sustainable development, ecology has become an important milestone in research community, especially due to global challenges like climate change. The ecological performance of products can be scientifically conducted with life cycle assessments. In the construction sector, significant amounts of CO₂ emissions are assigned to the energy used for building heating purposes. Therefore, sustainable construction materials for insulating purposes are substantial, whereby aerogels have been explored intensively in the last years due to their low thermal conductivity. Therefore, the WALL-ACE project aims to develop an aerogel-based thermal insulating plaster that would achieve minor thermal conductivities. But as in the early stage of development phases, a lot of information is still missing or not yet accessible, the ecological performance of innovative products bases increasingly on uncertain data that can lead to significant deviations in the results. To be able to predict realistically how meaningful the results are and how viable the developed products may be with regard to their corresponding respective market, these deviations however have to be considered. Therefore, a classification method is presented in this study, which may allow comparing the ecological performance of modern products with already established and competitive materials. In order to achieve this, an alternative calculation method was used that allows computing with lower and upper bounds to consider all possible values without precise data. The life cycle analysis of the considered products was conducted with an interval arithmetic based calculation method. The results lead to the conclusion that the interval solutions describing the possible environmental impacts are so wide that the result usability is limited. Nevertheless, a further optimization in reducing environmental impacts of aerogels seems to be needed to become more competitive in the future.

Keywords: aerogel-based, insulating material, early development phase, interval arithmetic

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Authors: Shahabeddin Sotudian, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, I. B. Turksen

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Hepatitis is one of the most common and dangerous diseases that affects humankind, and exposes millions of people to serious health risks every year. Diagnosis of Hepatitis has always been a challenge for physicians. This paper presents an effective method for diagnosis of hepatitis based on interval Type-II fuzzy. This proposed system includes three steps: pre-processing (feature selection), Type-I and Type-II fuzzy classification, and system evaluation. KNN-FD feature selection is used as the preprocessing step in order to exclude irrelevant features and to improve classification performance and efficiency in generating the classification model. In the fuzzy classification step, an “indirect approach” is used for fuzzy system modeling by implementing the exponential compactness and separation index for determining the number of rules in the fuzzy clustering approach. Therefore, we first proposed a Type-I fuzzy system that had an accuracy of approximately 90.9%. In the proposed system, the process of diagnosis faces vagueness and uncertainty in the final decision. Thus, the imprecise knowledge was managed by using interval Type-II fuzzy logic. The results that were obtained show that interval Type-II fuzzy has the ability to diagnose hepatitis with an average accuracy of 93.94%. The classification accuracy obtained is the highest one reached thus far. The aforementioned rate of accuracy demonstrates that the Type-II fuzzy system has a better performance in comparison to Type-I and indicates a higher capability of Type-II fuzzy system for modeling uncertainty.

Keywords: hepatitis disease, medical diagnosis, type-I fuzzy logic, type-II fuzzy logic, feature selection

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Authors: Nafiseh Mollaei, Reihaneh Kardehi Moghaddam

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In case of Diabetes Mellitus the controlling of insulin is very difficult. This illness is an incurable disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Glucose is a sugar which provides energy to the cells. Insulin is a hormone which supports the absorption of glucose. Fuzzy control strategy is attractive for glucose control because it mimics the first and second phase responses that the pancreas beta cells use to control glucose. We propose two control algorithms a type-1 fuzzy controller and an interval type-2 fuzzy method for the insulin infusion. The closed loop system has been simulated for different patients with different parameters, in present of the food intake disturbance and it has been shown that the blood glucose concentrations at a normoglycemic level of 110 mg/dl in the reasonable amount of time. This paper deals with type 1 diabetes as a nonlinear model, which has been simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK environment. The novel model, termed the Augmented Minimal Model is used in the simulations. There are some uncertainties in this model due to factors such as blood glucose, daily meals or sudden stress. In addition to eliminate the effects of uncertainty, different control methods may be utilized. In this article, fuzzy controller performance were assessed in terms of its ability to track a normoglycemic set point (110 mg/dl) in response to a [0-10] g meal disturbance. Finally, the development reported in this paper is supposed to simplify the insulin delivery, so increasing the quality of life of the patient.

Keywords: interval type-2, fuzzy controller, minimal augmented model, uncertainty

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Authors: Thoetchai Peeraphatdit, Peter A. Brady, Suraj Kapa, Samuel J. Asirvatham, Niyada Naksuk

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Background: Serum electrolyte abnormalities are a common cause of an acquired prolonged QT syndrome, especially, in the coronary care unit (CCU) setting. Optimal electrolyte ranges among the CCU patients have not been sufficiently investigated. Methods: We identified 8,498 consecutive CCU patients who were admitted to the CCU at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, the USA, from 2004 through 2013. Association between first serum electrolytes and baseline corrected QT intervals (QTc), as well as in-hospital mortality, was tested using multivariate linear regression and logistic regression, respectively. Serum potassium 4.0- < 4.5 mEq/L, ionized calcium (iCa) 4.6-4.8 mg/dL, and magnesium 2.0- < 2.2 mg/dL were used as the reference levels. Results: There was a modest level-dependent relationship between hypokalemia ( < 4.0 mEq/L), hypocalcemia ( < 4.4 mg/dL), and a prolonged QTc interval; serum magnesium did not affect the QTc interval. Association between the serum electrolytes and in-hospital mortality included a U-shaped relationship for serum potassium (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.53 and OR 1.91for serum potassium 4.5- < 5.0 and ≥ 5.0 mEq/L, respectively) and an inverted J-shaped relationship for iCa (adjusted OR 2.79 and OR 2.03 for calcium < 4.4 and 4.4- < 4.6 mg/dL, respectively). For serum magnesium, the mortality was greater only among patients with levels ≥ 2.4 mg/dL (adjusted OR 1.40), compared to the reference level. Findings were similar in sensitivity analyses examining the association between mean serum electrolytes and mean QTc intervals, as well as in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: Serum potassium 4.0- < 4.5 mEq/L, iCa ≥ 4.6 mg/dL, and magnesium < 2.4 mg/dL had a neutral effect on QTc intervals and were associated with the lowest in-hospital mortality among the CCU patients.

Keywords: calcium, electrocardiography, long-QT syndrome, magnesium, mortality, potassium

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

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The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO₂ in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM₃ model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A₂ propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: climate change, Lars WG, HADCM3, Gillan province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario

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Authors: Getachew Belay Kassahun

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Background: Locally established clinical laboratory reference intervals (RIs) are required to interpret laboratory test results for screening, diagnosis, and prognosis. The objective of this study was to establish a reference interval of clinical chemistry parameters among apparently healthy adolescents aged between 12 and 17 years in Mekelle, Tigrai, in the northern part of Ethiopia. Methods: Community-based cross-sectional study was employed from December 2018 to March 2019 in Mekelle City among 172 males and 172 females based on a Multi-stage sampling technique. Blood samples were tested for Fasting blood sugar (FBS), alanine amino transferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), Creatinine, urea, total protein, albumin (ALB), direct and indirect bilirubin (BIL.D and BIL.T) using 25 Bio system clinical chemistry analyzer. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 23 software and based on the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI)/ International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) C 28-A3 Guideline which defines the reference interval as the 95% central range of 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. Mann Whitney U test, descriptive statistics and box and whisker were statistical tools used for analysis. Results: This study observed statistically significant differences between males and females in ALP, ALT, AST, Urea and Creatinine Reference intervals. The established reference intervals for males and females, respectively, were: ALP (U/L) 79.48-492.12 versus 63.56-253.34, ALT (U/L) 4.54-23.69 versus 5.1-20.03, AST 15.7- 39.1 versus 13.3- 28.5, Urea (mg/dL) 9.33-24.99 versus 7.43-23.11, and Creatinine (mg/dL) 0.393-0.957 versus 0.301-0.846. The combined RIs for Total Protein (g/dL) were 6.08-7.85, ALB (g/dL) 4.42-5.46, FBS(mg/dL) 65-110, BIL.D (mg/dL) 0.033-0.532, and BIL.T (mg/dL) 0.106-0.812. Conclusions: The result showed a marked difference between sex and company-derived values for selected clinical chemistry parameters. Thus, the use of age and sex-specific locally established reference intervals for clinical chemistry parameters is recommended.

Keywords: reference interval, adolescent, clinical chemistry, Ethiopia

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Authors: M. Taleb, G. Tail, F. Z. Kara, B. Djedouani T. Moussa

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Necrophagous insects usually colonize cadavers within a short time after death. However, they are influenced by weather conditions, and their distribution and activity vary according to different time scales, which can affect the post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation. As no data have been published in Algeria on necrophagous insects visiting corpses, two field surveys were conducted in July 2012 and March 2013 at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology (INCC) using rabbit carcasses (Oryctolagus cuniculus L.). The trials were designed to identify the necrophagous Diptera fauna of Algiers, Algeria and examine their variations according to environmental variables. Four hundred and eighteen Diptera adults belonging to five families were captured during this study. The species which were identified on human corpses in different regions of Algeria were also observed on the rabbit carcasses. Although seasonal variations of the species were observed, their abundance did not significantly vary between the two seasons. In addition to seasonal effects, the ambient temperature, the wind speed, and precipitation affect the number of trapped flies. These conclusions highlight the necessity of considering the environmental factors at a scene to estimate the post-mortem interval accurately. It is hoped that these findings provide basic information regarding the necrophagous Diptera fauna of Algeria.

Keywords: forensic entomology, necrophagous diptera, post-mortem interval, abiotic factors, Algeria

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

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Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

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Authors: Manlika Ratchagit

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This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, Lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: Samane Eftekhari Ranjbar

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Diabetes mellitus, a metabolic disorder characterized by elevated blood glucose levels, ranks among the leading causes of adult mortality. This study investigates the impact of an eight-week high-intensity interval training (HIIT) program combined with sodium nitrite supplementation on TNF- α, MURF1, and PI3K in a type 2 diabetes rodent model. Elevated TNF-α levels have been associated with insulin resistance, while MURF1 and PI3K play roles in muscle atrophy and insulin signaling pathways, respectively. In this experimental study, 15 eight-week-old rats from the Sara Laboratory Center in Tabriz were assigned to one of five groups: healthy control, diabetic control, diabetic with sodium nitrite supplementation, diabetic with eight weeks of intermittent exercise, and diabetic with eight weeks of interval training plus sodium nitrite supplementation. The HIIT protocol was designed to span eight weeks, with five weekly sessions at specified intensities and durations. Sodium nitrite, known for its vasodilatory and cytoprotective properties, was administered via injection. The findings revealed that the HIIT program and sodium nitrite supplementation influenced the examined biomarkers. ANOVA test outcomes indicated statistically significant differences in TNF- α (P=0.001), MURF1 (P=0.001), and PI3K (P=0.001) concentrations among the various groups. The healthy control group exhibited substantially decreased TNF- α, and MURF1 levels, as well as elevated PI3K levels compared to the diabetic control group. The exercise group, in conjunction with sodium nitrite supplementation, demonstrated a significant rise in PI3K levels (P=0.001) and a decline in TNF- α levels (P=0.018) relative to the diabetic control group. These results suggest that the combined intervention may help improve insulin sensitivity and reduce inflammation. However, MURF1 levels, which are related to muscle atrophy, showed no significant difference (P=0.24). In conclusion, in type 2 diabetic rats, an eight-week high-intensity interval training program with sodium nitrite supplementation does not affect MURF1 levels but does influence PI3K and TNF- α levels. This combination may hold potential for improving insulin sensitivity and reducing inflammation in type 2 diabetes patients, warranting further investigation and potential translation to human clinical trials.

Keywords: high-intensity interval training, sodium nitrate supplementation, type 2 diabetes, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase, muscle RING-finger protein-1

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Authors: Manlika Rajchakit

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This paper is concerned with robust mean square stability of uncertain stochastic switched discrete time-delay systems. The system to be considered is subject to interval time-varying delays, which allows the delay to be a fast time-varying function and the lower bound is not restricted to zero. Based on the discrete Lyapunov functional, a switching rule for the robust mean square stability for the uncertain stochastic discrete time-delay system is designed via linear matrix inequalities. Finally, some examples are exploited to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes.

Keywords: robust mean square stability, discrete-time stochastic systems, hybrid systems, interval time-varying delays, lyapunov functional, linear matrix inequalities

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Authors: M. W. Sun, Y. Zhang, L. M. Zhang, Z. H. Wang, Z. Q. Chen

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In the realm of flight control, the Proportional- Derivative (PD) control is still widely used for the attitude control in practice, particularly for the pitch control, and the attitude dynamics using PD controller should be investigated deeply. According to the empirical knowledge about the unstable flight dynamics, the control parameter combination conditions to generate sole or finite number of closed-loop oscillations, which is a quite smooth response and is more preferred by practitioners, are presented in analytical or numerical manners. To analyze the effects of the combination conditions of the control parameters, the roots of several polynomials are sought to obtain feasible solutions. These conditions can also be plotted in a 2-D plane which makes the conditions be more explicit by using multiple interval operations. Finally, numerical examples are used to validate the proposed methods and some comparisons are also performed.

Keywords: attitude control, dynamic performance, numerical solving method, interval, unstable flight dynamics

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Authors: Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter

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Law enforcement agencies are tasked with crime prevention and crime reduction under limited resources. Having an accurate temporal estimate of the crime rate would be valuable to achieve such a goal. However, estimation is usually complicated by the interval-censored nature of crime data. We cast the problem of intensity estimation as a Poisson regression using an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Two special penalties are added that provide smoothness over the time of day and day of the week. This approach presented here provides accurate intensity estimates and can also uncover day-of-week clusters that share the same intensity patterns. Anticipating where and when crimes might occur is a key element to successful policing strategies. However, this task is complicated by the presence of interval-censored data. The censored data refers to the type of data that the event time is only known to lie within an interval instead of being observed exactly. This type of data is prevailing in the field of criminology because of the absence of victims for certain types of crime. Despite its importance, the research in temporal analysis of crime has lagged behind the spatial component. Inspired by the success of solving crime-related problems with a statistical approach, we propose a statistical model for the temporal intensity estimation of crime with censored data. The model is built on Poisson regression and has special penalty terms added to the likelihood. An EM algorithm was derived to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, and the resulting model shows superior performance to the competing model. Our research is in line with the smart policing initiative (SPI) proposed by the Bureau Justice of Assistance (BJA) as an effort to support law enforcement agencies in building evidence-based, data-driven law enforcement tactics. The goal is to identify strategic approaches that are effective in crime prevention and reduction. In our case, we allow agencies to deploy their resources for a relatively short period of time to achieve the maximum level of crime reduction. By analyzing a particular area within cities where data are available, our proposed approach could not only provide an accurate estimate of intensities for the time unit considered but a time-variation crime incidence pattern. Both will be helpful in the allocation of limited resources by either improving the existing patrol plan with the understanding of the discovery of the day of week cluster or supporting extra resources available.

Keywords: cluster detection, EM algorithm, interval censoring, intensity estimation

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Authors: Krishna Dahiya, Esha Charaya

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Induction of labour is a common obstetrical intervention. Around 1 in every 4 patient undergo induction of labour for different indications Purpose: To study the efficacy of the combination of Foley bulb and vaginal misoprostol in comparison to vaginal misoprostol alone for cervical ripening and induction of labour. Methods: A prospective randomised study was conducted on 150 patients with term singleton pregnancy admitted for induction of labour. Seventy-five patients were induced with both Foley bulb, and vaginal misoprostol and another 75 were given vaginal misoprostol alone for induction of labour. Both groups were then compared with respect to change in Bishop score, induction to the active phase of labour interval, induction delivery interval, duration of labour, maternal complications and neonatal outcomes. Data was analysed using statistical software SPSS version 11.5. Tests with P,.05 were considered significant. Results: The two groups were comparable with respect to maternal age, parity, gestational age, indication for induction, and initial Bishop scores. Both groups had a significant change in Bishop score (2.99 ± 1.72 and 2.17 ± 1.48 respectively with statistically significant difference (p=0.001 S, 95% C.I. -0.1978 to 0.8378). Mean induction to delivery interval was significantly lower in the combination group (11.76 ± 5.89 hours) than misoprostol group (14.54 ± 7.32 hours). Difference was of 2.78 hours (p=0.018,S, 95% CI -5.1042 to -0.4558). Induction to delivery interval was significantly lower in nulliparous women of combination group (13.64 ± 5.75 hours) than misoprostol group (18.4±7.09 hours), and the difference was of 4.76 hours (p=0.002, S, 95% CI 1.0465 to 14.7335). There was no difference between the groups in the mode of delivery, infant weight, Apgar score and intrapartum complications. Conclusion: From the present study it was concluded that addition of Foley catheter to vaginal misoprostol have the synergistic effect and results in early cervical ripening and delivery. These results suggest that the combination may be used to achieve timely and safe delivery in the presence of an unfavorable cervix. A combination of the Foley bulb and vaginal misoprostol resulted in a shorter induction-to-delivery time when compared with vaginal misoprostol alone without increasing labor complications.

Keywords: Bishop score, Foley catheter, induction of labor, misoprostol

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Authors: Huazhen Lin, Ruihua Xu, Zhibin Jiang

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In this real-world case, timetabling the LRT network as a whole is rather challenging for the operator: they are supposed to create a timetable to avoid various route conflicts manually while satisfying a given interval and the number of rolling stocks, but the outcome is not satisfying. Therefore, the operator adopts a computerised timetabling tool, the Train Plan Maker (TPM), to cope with this problem. However, with various constraints in the dual-line network, it is still difficult to find an adequate pairing of turnback time, interval and rolling stocks’ number, which requires extra manual intervention. Aiming at current problems, a one-off model for timetabling is presented in this paper to simplify the procedure of timetabling. Before the timetabling procedure starts, this paper presents how the dual-line system with a ring and several branches is turned into a simpler structure. Then, a non-linear programming model is presented in two stages. In the first stage, the model sets a series of constraints aiming to calculate a proper timing for coordinating two lines by adjusting the turnback time at termini. Then, based on the result of the first stage, the model introduces a series of inequality constraints to avoid various route conflicts. With this model, an analysis is conducted to reveal the relation between the ratio of trains in different directions and the possible minimum interval, observing that the more imbalance the ratio is, the less possible to provide frequent service under such strict constraints.

Keywords: light rail transit (LRT), non-linear programming, railway timetabling, timetable coordination

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Authors: Manju Pandey, Nilay Khare, S. C. Shrivastava

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This paper is the final in a series, which has defined two new classes of aggregation operators for triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy numbers based on the geometrical characteristics of their fuzzy membership functions. In the present paper, a new aggregation operator for trapezoidal fuzzy numbers has been defined. The new operator is based on the geometric mean of the membership lines to the left and right of the maximum possibility interval. The operator is defined and the analytical relationships have been derived. Computation of the aggregate is demonstrated with a numerical example. Corresponding arithmetic and geometric aggregates as well as results from the recent work of the authors on TrFN aggregates have also been computed.

Keywords: LR fuzzy number, interval fuzzy number, triangular fuzzy number, trapezoidal fuzzy number, apex angle, left apex angle, right apex angle, aggregation operator, arithmetic and geometric mean

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Authors: Steven D. P Moore

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A novel method referred to asKýklos(Ky) dimensional geometry is proposed as an entity specific core geometric dimensional measurement system. Ky geometric measures can constructscaled multi-dimensionalmodels using regular and irregular sets in IRn. This entity specific-derived geometric measurement system shares similar fractal methods in which a ‘fractal transformation operator’ is applied to a set S to produce a union of N copies. The Kýklos’ inputs use 1D geometry as a core measure. One-dimensional inputs include the radius interval of a circle/sphere or the semiminor/semimajor axes intervals of an ellipse or spheroid. These geometric inputs have finite values that can be measured by SI distance units. The outputs for each interval are divided and subdivided 1D subcomponents with a union equal to the interval geometry/length. Setting a limit of subdivision iterations creates a finite value for each 1Dsubcomponent. The uniqueness of this method is captured by allowing the simplest 1D inputs to define entity specific subclass geometric core measurements that can also be used to derive length measures. Current methodologies for celestial based measurement of time, as defined within SI units, fits within this methodology, thus combining spatial and temporal features into geometric core measures. The novel Ky method discussed here offers geometric measures to construct scaled multi-dimensional structures, even models. Ky classes proposed for consideration include celestial even subatomic. The application of this offers incredible possibilities, for example, geometric architecture that can represent scaled celestial models that incorporates planets (spheroids) and celestial motion (elliptical orbits).

Keywords: Kyklos, geometry, measurement, celestial, dimension

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Authors: Catrin Morgan, Atholl Johnston

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Creatine supplementation should theoretically increase total muscle creatine and so enhance the generation of intramuscular phosphocreatine and subsequent ATP formation. The use of creatine as a potential ergogenic aid in sport has been an area of significant scientific research for a number of years. However the effect of creatine supplementation and swimming performance is a relatively new area of research and is the subject of this review. In swimming creatine supplementation could help maintain maximal power output, aid recovery and increase lean body mass. After investigating the underlying theory and science behind creatine supplementation, a literature review was conducted to identify the best evidence looking at the effect of creatine supplementation on swimming performance. The search identified 27 potential studies, and of these 17 were selected for review. The studies were then categorised into single sprint performance, which involves swimming a short distance race, or repeated interval performance, which involves swimming a series of sprints with intervals of rest between them. None of the studies on the effect of creatine controlled for the multiple confounding factors associated with measurement of swimming performance. The sample size in the studies was limited and this reduced the reliability of the studies and introduced the possibility of bias. The studies reviewed provided insufficient evidence to determine if creatine supplementation is beneficial to swimming performance. However, what data there was supported the use of creatine supplementation in repeated interval swimming rather than in single sprint swimming. From a review of the studies, it was calculated on average, there was a 1.37% increase in swimming performance with the use of creatine for repeated intervals and a 0.86% increase in performance for single sprint. While this may seem minor, it should be remembered that swimming races are often won by much smaller margins. In the 2012 London Olympics the Men’s 100 metres freestyle race was won by a margin of only 0.01 of a second. Therefore any potential benefit could make a dramatic difference to the final outcome of the race. Overall more research is warranted before the benefits of creatine supplementation in swimming performance can be further clarified.

Keywords: creatine supplementation, repeated interval, single sprint, swimming performance

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Authors: Norm Josephy, Lucy Kimball, Victoria Steblovskaya

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Hedging of a portfolio of European options under proportional transaction costs is considered. Our discrete time financial market model extends the binomial market model with transaction costs to the case where the underlying stock price ratios are distributed over a bounded interval rather than over a two-point set. An optimal hedging strategy is chosen from a set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies. Our approach to optimal hedging of a portfolio of options is based on theoretical foundation that includes determination of a no-arbitrage option price interval as well as on properties of the non-self-financing strategies and their residuals. A computational algorithm for optimizing an investor relevant criterion over the set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies is developed. Applicability of our approach is demonstrated using both simulated data and real market data.

Keywords: extended binomial model, non-self-financing hedging, optimization, proportional transaction costs

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Authors: Lee Myung-Won, Kwak Keun-Chang

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This paper is concerned with knowledge representation and extraction of fuzzy if-then rules using Interval Type-2 Context-based Fuzzy C-Means clustering (IT2-CFCM) with the aid of fuzzy granulation. This proposed clustering algorithm is based on information granulation in the form of IT2 based Fuzzy C-Means (IT2-FCM) clustering and estimates the cluster centers by preserving the homogeneity between the clustered patterns from the IT2 contexts produced in the output space. Furthermore, we can obtain the automatic knowledge representation in the design of Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFN), Linguistic Model (LM), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Networks (ANFN) from the numerical input-output data pairs. We shall focus on a design of ANFN in this paper. The experimental results on an estimation problem of energy performance reveal that the proposed method showed a good knowledge representation and performance in comparison with the previous works.

Keywords: IT2-FCM, IT2-CFCM, context-based fuzzy clustering, adaptive neuro-fuzzy network, knowledge representation

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Authors: Mahsa Pishdar

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Food traceability through the supply chain is facing increased demand. IoT and blockchain are among the tools under consideration in the Industry 4.0 era that could be integrated to help implementation of the Circular Economy (CE) principles while enhancing food traceability solutions. However, such tools need intellectual system, and infrastructureto be settled as guidance through the way, helping overcoming obstacles. That is why the critical success factors for implementing Industry 4.0 and circular economy principles in food traceability concept are analyzed in this paper by combination of interval type 2 fuzzy Worst Best Method and Measurement Alternatives and Ranking according to Compromise Solution (Interval Type 2 fuzzy WBM-MARCOS). Results indicate that “Knowledge of Industry 4.0 obligations and CE principle” is the most important factor that is the basis of success following by “Management commitment and support”. This will assist decision makers to seize success in gaining a competitive advantage while reducing costs through the supply chain.

Keywords: food traceability, industry 4.0, internet of things, block chain, best worst method, marcos

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Authors: H. Mousavi, M. Sharifi, H. Pourvaziri

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Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) is a well-known mathematical problem for modeling series-parallel systems. It is a combinatorial optimization problem which focuses on determining an optimal assignment of components in a system design. In this paper, to be more practical, we have considered the problem of redundancy allocation of series system with interval valued reliability of components. Therefore, during the search process, the reliabilities of the components are considered as a stochastic variable with a lower and upper bounds. In order to optimize the problem, we proposed a simulated annealing based on cloud theory (CBSAA). Also, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is embedded to the CBSAA to handle the random variable components’ reliability. This novel approach has been investigated by numerical examples and the experimental results have shown that the CBSAA combining MCS is an efficient tool to solve the RAP of systems with interval-valued component reliabilities.

Keywords: redundancy allocation problem, simulated annealing, cloud theory, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Kuei-Yu Chien, Nai-Wen Kan, Wan-Chun Wu, Guo-Dong Ma, Shu-Chen Chen

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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the responses of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), heart rate (HR), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and lactate following continued high-intensity interval exercise in water and on land. The results of studies can be an exercise program design reference for health care and fitness professionals. Method: A total of 20 volunteer postmenopausal women was included in this study. The inclusion criteria were: duration of menopause > 1 year; and sedentary lifestyle, defined as engaging in moderate-intensity exercise less than three times per week, or less than 20 minutes per day. Participants need to visit experimental place three times. The first time visiting, body composition was performed and participant filled out the questionnaire. Participants were assigned randomly to the exercise environment (water or land) in second and third time visiting. Water exercise testing was under water of trochanter level. In continuing jump testing, each movement consisted 10-second maximum volunteer jump for two sets. 50% heart rate reserve dynamic resting (walking or running) for one minute was within each set. SBP, DBP, HR, RPE of whole body/thigh (RPEW/RPET) and lactate were performed at pre and post testing. HR, RPEW, and RPET were monitored after 1, 2, and 10 min of exercise testing. SBP and DBP were performed after 10 and 30 min of exercise testing. Results: The responses of SBP and DBP after exercise testing in water were higher than those on land. Lactate levels after exercise testing in water were lower than those on land. The responses of RPET were lower than those on land post exercise 1 and 2 minutes. The heart rate recovery in water was faster than those on land at post exercise 5 minutes. Conclusion: This study showed water interval jump exercise induces higher cardiovascular responses with lower RPE responses and lactate levels than on-land jumps exercise in postmenopausal women. Fatigue is one of the major reasons to obstruct exercise behavior. Jump exercise could enhance cardiorespiratory fitness, the lower-extremity power, strength, and bone mass. There are several health benefits to the middle to older adults. This study showed that water interval jumping could be more relaxed and not tried to reach the same land-based cardiorespiratory exercise intensity.

Keywords: interval exercise, power, recovery, fatigue

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Authors: Ying Jia Teoh

Abstract:

The Canning Basin is located between the Kimberley and Pilbara Precambrian cratonic blocks. It is a large but relatively poorly explored Paleozoic basin in remote Western Australia. During the early Ordovician period, the Australian continent was located near the equator. Middle Ordovician age Nita and Goldwyer Formations in Canning Basin are therefore warm water carbonates. The Nita Formation carbonates are a regressive sequence which conformably overlies the Goldwyer Formation. It contains numerous progradational cycles of limestone, vuggy dolomitized carbonate beds and shale deposited in subtidal to supratidal environments. The Goldwyer Formation contains transgressive shale sequences and regressive carbonates deposited in shallow subtidal conditions. The shales contain oil-prone Gloeocapsormorpha prisca-bearing source rocks. Llanvirnian relative sea-level fluctuations were reconstructed by using Fischer plots methodology for three key wells (wells McLarty 1, Looma 1 and Robert 1) in Broome Platform and compared with INPEFA data. The Goldwyer lower shale (interval Or1000P) shows increasing relative sea-level and this matches with a transgressive systems tract. Goldwyer middle carbonate (interval Or2000) shows relative sea-level drop and this matches with a regressive systems tract. Goldwyer upper shale (interval Or2000P) shows relative sea-level drop and this matches with a transgressive systems tract. Nita Formation Leo Member (interval Or3000) shows a relative sea level drop and this matches with a regressive systems tract. The Nita Formation Cudalgarra Member (intervals Or3000P and Or4000) with transgressive systems tract then this is followed by a regressive systems tract. This pattern matches with the relative sea-level curves in wells McLarty 1 and Robert 1. The correlation is weak for parts of well Looma 1. This is probably influenced by the fact that the thickness of this section is quite small. As a conclusion, Fischer plots for the Llanvirnian Goldwyer and Nita Formations show good agreement with the third order global sea level cycles of Haq and others. Fischer plots are generally correlated well with trend and cyclicity determined by INPEFA curves and as a method of cross-checking INPEFA data and sea-level change.

Keywords: canning basin, Fischer plots, Llanvirnian, middle Ordovician, sea-level fluctuations, stratigraphy

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Authors: Arpita Saha, Apoorv Jain, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Level of service at a signal controlled intersection is directly measured from the delay. Similarly, saturation flow rate is a fundamental parameter to measure the intersection capacity. The present study calculates vehicle arrival rate, departure rate, and queue length for every five seconds interval in each cycle. Based on the queue lengths, the total delay of the cycle has been calculated using Simpson’s 1/3rd rule. Saturation flow has been estimated in terms of veh/hr of green/lane for every five seconds interval of the green period until at least three vehicles are left to cross the stop line. Vehicle composition shows an immense effect on total delay and saturation flow rate. The increase in two-wheeler proportion increases the saturation flow rate and reduces the total delay per vehicle significantly. Additionally, an increase in the heavy vehicle proportion reduces the saturation flow rate and increases the total delay for each vehicle.

Keywords: delay, saturation flow, signalised intersection, vehicle composition

Procedia PDF Downloads 436