Search results for: interconnected institutions

Authors: Haci Mehmet Guzey, Levent Acar

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In this paper, a novel decentralized controller is developed for linear systems with nonlinear unknown interconnections. A model linear decoupled system is assigned for each system. By using the difference actual and model state dynamics, the problem is formulated as inverse problem. Then, the interconnected dynamics are approximated by using Galerkin’s expansion method for inverse problems. Two different sets of orthogonal basis functions are utilized to approximate the interconnected dynamics. Approximated interconnections are utilized in the controller to cancel the interconnections and decouple the systems. Subsequently, the interconnected systems behave as a collection of decoupled systems.

Keywords: decentralized control, inverse problems, large scale systems, nonlinear interconnections, basis functions, system identification

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Authors: Pasala Gopi, P. Linga Reddy

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The response of the load frequency control problem in an multi-area interconnected electrical power system is much more complex with increasing size, changing structure and increasing load. This paper deals with Load Frequency Control of three area interconnected Power system incorporating Reheat, Non-reheat and Reheat turbines in all areas respectively. The response of the load frequency control problem in an multi-area interconnected power system is improved by designing PID controller using different tuning techniques and proved that the PID controller which was designed by Simulink Design Optimization (SDO) Software gives the superior performance than other controllers for step perturbations. Finally the robustness of controller was checked against system parameter variations

Keywords: load frequency control, pid controller tuning, step load perturbations, inter connected power system

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Authors: Jung–Min Yang

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In this paper, fault recovery for parallel interconnected asynchronous sequential machines is studied. An adversarial input can infiltrate into one of two submachines comprising parallel composition of the considered asynchronous sequential machine, causing an unauthorized state transition. The control objective is to elucidate the condition for the existence of a corrective controller that makes the closed-loop system immune against any occurrence of adversarial inputs. In particular, an efficient existence condition is presented that does not need the complete modeling of the interconnected asynchronous sequential machine.

Keywords: asynchronous sequential machines, parallel composi-tion, corrective control, fault tolerance

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Authors: Ojeka Alexandra

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The study investigated the leadership effectiveness of leaders of tertiary institutions in Nigeria. The study sought to examine the leadership styles adopted, the leadership energy and effectiveness of the leaders of two tertiary institutions. The research was undertaken at two institutions, one Polytechnic and one University. The population of the study was the lecturers and the heads of departments of the two institutions. The leadership matrix and leadership effectiveness index questionnaires were employed to collect quantitative and qualitative data. The preferred and practiced styles were compared and contrasted to determine whether or not they were used to achieve goals and objectives of the lecturers and the organizations. The recommendations contribute towards the academic and professional development of the lecturers and their institutions.

Keywords: leadership, leadership effectiveness, leadership energy, tertiary institutions, and leadership styles

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Authors: Sulila Anar

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Institutions of any kind are regulated by laws which could be formal or informal, visible or invisible that influences the very structure of the institutions itself. Here in this paper the attempt will be to see how institutions of higher education are regulated by the regulatory institutions by taking the case of India, the third largest education system in the world. The attempt is to try to see how regulation of higher education creates a space for contestation among regulatory institutions based on secondary resources and how this affects the governance of university to achieve the goals and visions.

Keywords: higher education, regulation, autonomy, space

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Authors: Jacinta Ifeoma Obidile

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The study sought to ascertain from the opinions of the business educators, effective strategies for funding public tertiary institutions in Anambra State Nigeria, for effective functioning and delivery. Funding of tertiary institutions has become so important following the dilapidated state of most of the public tertiary institutions in Nigeria. Tertiary institutions are known for the production of competitive and competent workforce in the nation. Considering the state of public tertiary institutions currently, one wonders if their objectives are achieved. Many scholars have identified funding as one of the major barriers to effective functioning of tertiary institutions. Although federal and state governments have been supporting the tertiary institutions, but their support seems not to be adequate. This study therefore ascertained from the perspective of business educators, other strategies for funding public tertiary institutions in Anambra State Nigeria, for effective functioning and delivery. Survey research design was adopted for the study. A total of 104 business educators from the public tertiary institutions in the State constituted the population. There was no sampling, hence the whole population was used. Structured questionnaire validated by three experts with a reliability coefficient of 0.82 was the instrument for data collection. Data collected were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. Findings from the study revealed that public-private partnership and external aids were among the strategies considered effective for funding public tertiary institutions. It was therefore recommended among others that associations like alumni should be strongly instituted in each of the public tertiary institutions so as to assist in the funding of tertiary institutions for effective functioning and delivery.

Keywords: strategies, funding, tertiary institutions, business educators

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Authors: Ipenyi Peter

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Discipline is an issue that tends to undermine the provision of quality education in tertiary institutions in Nigeria. This is because the overall goals of tertiary institutions, as enunciated in the National Policy of Education, can hardly be achieved by all the stakeholders without strict conformity and adherence to the rules and regulations and the ideals of the entire society. The adherence is essential for the general welfare of the society. This paper critically X-rayed the causes of indiscipline in tertiary institutions in Nigeria. Such courses include laxity in home control and parental supervision, school, teacher and societal factors as well as government influence. The paper recommended among others such strategies as enculturation, acculturation as well as the acquisition of a certain number of generic skills for dealing with discipline and ethical issues in tertiary institutions in Nigeria.

Keywords: discipline, education, tertiary institutions, society

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Authors: Yusuf Sani Abubakar

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This paper investigates mechanisms of settlement of disputes at the Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs). Dispute settlement at the Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs) can be both through litigation as well as Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR). The paper aims to investigate how disputes are settled at the Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs), as it is natural to have disagreements between different parties involved in the business of Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs). The paper adopts a qualitative methodology where the sources are taken from journals, books, websites etc. In analyzing the data obtained from the sources, content analysis will be used. In addition to writings on this topic by various writers, this paper will add to the literature and will recommend certain effective ways of solving disputes arising between parties participating in the business of Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs).

Keywords: Islamic finance, dispute resolution, Islamic financial institutions, litigation

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Authors: Xuefan Li, Donghua Li, Juanjuan Li

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This study explores the changes in policies toward Chinese students studying abroad in different countries during the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. Interviews and questionnaire surveys were conducted with participating institutions at the China International Education Exhibition. The results indicate that institutions were impacted by the pandemic differently, with a gradual recovery in the two years following the initial outbreak. Institutions encourage and support Chinese students to resume offline studies during the post-pandemic period. The impact of the pandemic on the recruitment of Chinese students by international institutions varied, with different measures being adopted by different institutions. Compared with universities, colleges were more affected in terms of student employment rates. Some institutions were able to respond quickly and effectively to the pandemic due to their online teaching platforms. Overall, this study is expected to provide insights into the changes in policies toward Chinese students studying abroad during the pandemic and highlights the diverse responses of international institutions.

Keywords: international education, Chinese international education, COVID-19 pandemic, international institutions

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Authors: A. A. Gadgeel, S. T. Mhaske

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Hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (HTAB) modified nano silica were used as pore stabilizer for the preparation of interconnected macroporous copolymer foam of glycidyl methacrylate (GMA), divinylbenzene (DVB) and tert-butyl acrylate (BA). The polymerization of air infused aqueous foam is carried out through free radical thermal initiator. The porosity of the polymerized foam depends on the concentration of HTAB used to control the hydrophobic and hydrophilic behavior of silica nanoparticle. Modified silica particle results to form closed cell foam with 74% of porosity for 60% of air infusion during aqueous foaming. The preliminary structure of microfoam was observed through optical microscopy, whereas for a better understanding of morphology SEM was used. The proposed route is an eco-friendly route for synthesizing polymeric microporous polymer as compared to other chemical and additive-based routes available.

Keywords: air-infused, interconnected microporous, porosity, aqueous foam

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Authors: Aliyu Aminu Baba, Mustapha Makama

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Tertiary institutions are citadel of learning and societal orientation. Due to the huge investment of various government to tertiary institutions, these institutions are solely financed by the government alone. As stakeholders of society, corporations have to have to intervene and provide corporate social responsibility. The study intends to investigate the role of Entrepreneurs in incorporating social Responsibility. Tertiary institutions are citadel of learning and societal orientation. Due to the huge investment of various government to tertiary institutions, the study intends to investigate the role of businesses and Entrepreneurs, which could be among the important contributions of businesses and Entrepreneurs on corporate social Responsibility to Tertiary Institutions in Bauchi State. Corporate social responsibility is vital in enhancing the infrastructural development of the tertiary institution as almost all individuals and corporate bodies benefit from this tertiary institutions. The study intends to examine the impact of corporate social responsibility to tertiary institutions and entrepreneurs in Bauchi state Nigeria. Questionnaires would be distributed to tertiary institutions and entrepreneurs in the Bauchi metropolis. The data collected will be analyzed with the help of SPSS version 23. The main objective is to investigate the role of businesses and Entrepreneurs, which could be among the important contributions of businesses and entrepreneurs on corporate social Responsibility to Tertiary Institutions in Bauchi State.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, tertiary, institutions, profitability

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Authors: Patrick M. Stanton, William R. McCumber

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Using a large dataset of more than 2,400 individual microfinance institutions (MFIs) from 120 countries from 1999 to 2016, this study finds that nearly half of the international MFIs operate as for-profit institutions. Formal institutions (business regulatory environment, property rights, social protection, and a developed financial sector) impact the likelihood of MFIs being for-profit across countries. Cultural differences across countries (power distance, individualism, masculinity, and indulgence) seem to be a factor in the legal status of the MFI (non-profit or for-profit). MFIs in countries with stronger formal institutions, a greater degree of power distance, and a higher degree of collectivism experience better financial and social performance.

Keywords: Hofstede cultural dimensions, international finance, microfinance institutions, non-profite

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Authors: B. Seetanah, R. V. Sannassee, Lamport, K. Padachi, K. Seetah, S. Matadeen, N. Okurutt, N. Ama, L. Mokoodi

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This paper analyses the impact of the various enabling elements towards fostering entrepreneurial behavior for two Sub Saharan African countries namely Mauritius and Botswana, with focus is on role of institutions (ministries, government support institutions, financing institutions and SME associations). Using a structural equation modeling framework, it is found that finance was some of the most determinant of respondents’ evaluation of the business climate thus emphasizing on the crucial of such an ingredient. Interestingly government related factors such as government support and institutional support are also reported to have a significant influence on the SME business climate in both countries.

Keywords: institutions, SME, SEM, Mauritius, Botswana

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Authors: Zhiyuan Du, Baisravan Hom Chaudhuri, Pierluigi Pisu

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In connected vehicle systems where wireless communication is available among the involved vehicles and intersection controllers, it is possible to design an intersection coordination strategy that leads the connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) travel through the road intersections without the conventional traffic light control. In this paper, we present a distributed coordination strategy for the CAVs at multiple interconnected intersections that aims at improving system fuel efficiency and system mobility. We present a distributed control solution where in the higher level, the intersection controllers calculate the road desired average velocity and optimally assign reference velocities of each vehicle. In the lower level, every vehicle is considered to use model predictive control (MPC) to track their reference velocity obtained from the higher level controller. The proposed method has been implemented on a simulation-based case with two-interconnected intersection network. Additionally, the effects of mixed vehicle types on the coordination strategy has been explored. Simulation results indicate the improvement on vehicle fuel efficiency and traffic mobility of the proposed method.

Keywords: connected vehicles, automated vehicles, intersection coordination systems, multiple interconnected intersections, model predictive control

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Authors: Mohammad Alroaithi

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Porous polymeric materials have attracted a great attention due to their distinctive porous structure within a polymer matrix. They are characterised by the presence of external pores on the surface as well as inner interconnected windows. Conventional techniques to produce porous polymeric materials encounters major challenge in controlling the properties of the resultant structures including morphology, pores, cavities size, and porosity. Herein, we present a facile and versatile microfluidics technique for the fabrication of uniform porous polymeric structures with highly ordered and well-defined interconnected windows. The shapes of the porous structures can either be a microparticles or foam. Both shapes used microfluidics platform to first produce monodisperse emulsion. The uniform emulsions, were then consolidated into porous structures through UV photopolymerisation. The morphology, pores, cavities size, and porosity of the structures can be precisely manipulated by the flowrate. The proposed strategy might provide a key advantage for fabrication of uniform porous materials over many existing technologies.

Keywords: polymer, porous particles, microfluidics, porous structures

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Authors: Minh Thi Hai Vo

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This article draws on in-depth interviews with state employees at public hospitals and universities in its institutional analysis of the autonomy practices of public service delivery units in Vietnam. Unlike many empirical and theoretical studies that view formal and informal institutions as complements or substitutes, this article finds no evidence of complementary or substitutive relationships. Instead, the article finds that formal institutions accommodate informal ones and that informal institutions tend to compete and interfere, with the existing and ineffective formal institutions. The result of such conflicting relationship is that the actual autonomy of public service delivery units is, in most cases, perceived to be greater than the formal autonomy they are given. In the condition of poor regulation, the informal autonomy may result in unethical practices including rent-seeking and corruption. The implication of the study finding is policy-makers need to redesign and reorganize the autonomisation of public service delivery units to make informal institutions support and reinforce formal ones in a complementary manner.

Keywords: autonomy, formal institutions, informal institutions, public service delivery units, Vietnam

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Authors: Endalew Jibat, Feyera Senbeta, Tesfaye Zeleke, Fitsum Hagos

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Institutions can play a key role in coordinating how natural resources are effectively used without over-exploitation. Institutions are the laws, policies, and organizational arrangements that permit, forbid or regulate human action. The aim of this study was to look into the roles of formal and informal institutions, as well as their interactions, in water resource governance in Ethiopia's Central Rift Valley (CRV), where water scarcity is a concern. Key informant interviews, group discussions, in depth-interview, and secondary data sources were used to generate relevant data. The study revealed that formal and informal institutions were involved in water resource governance in the study area. However, the influence of informal institutions on formal institutions or vice versa is trivial to change the action of water users. Lack of clear roles and responsibilities of actors, weak capacity and lack of meaningful decentralization and participation of key actors in policy development, lack of synergy and incongruence between formal and informal institutions, and absence of enforcement mechanisms including incentives are attributed to inefficient use of water resources in the CRV. Enhancing the interplay of formal and informal institutions in the water resource policy development and meaningful decentralization and key stakeholders' engagement is recommended for sustainable water use.

Keywords: institutions, governance, institutional interplay, water users

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Authors: Ma'amun Muhammed

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The ability of smartphones in enhancing communication, providing access to business and serving as a pool for information retrieval has a far reaching and potentially beneficial impacts on enhancing teaching in higher institutions in the developing countries like Nigeria. Nigeria as one of the fast growing economies in Africa, whose citizens patronize smartphones can utilize this opportunity by inculcating the culture of using smartphones not only for communication, business transaction, banking etc. but also for enhancing teaching in the higher institutions. Smartphones have become part and parcel of our lives, particularly among young people. The primary objective of this paper is to ascertain the use of smartphones in enhancing teaching in Nigeria’s higher institutions, to achieve this, content analysis was used thoroughly. This paper examines the opportunities offered by smartphones to the students of higher institutions of learning, the challenges being faced by lecturers of these institutions in classrooms. Lastly, it offers solution on how some of these critical challenges will be overcame, so as to utilize the technology of these devices.

Keywords: communication, information retrieval, mobile phone, smartphones teaching

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Authors: Daurenbek Kuleimenov, Elmira Otar

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Market institutions extension within transit societies contributes to constituting the new type of middle class and households livelihood strategies. The middle class households as an example of prosperity in many cases encourage the ordinary ones to do the same economic actions. Therefore, practices of using market institutions by middle class households in transit societies, which are mostly characterized by huge influence of traditional attitudes, can carry habitual features for the whole society. Market institutions consumption habit of the middle class households makes them trendsetters of economic habits of other households while adapting to the market economy. Moreover different social-economic positions of households lead them to different consuming results such as worsening or improving household economy due to indebtedness.

Keywords: middle class, households, market institutions, transition

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Authors: Sergey Chirun

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Using of a combination of institutional analysis and network access has allowed the author to identify the characteristics of the informal institutions of regional political power and political regimes. According to the author, ‘field’ of activity of post-Soviet regimes, formed under the influence of informal institutions, often contradicts democratic institutional regional changes which are aimed at creating of a legal-rational type of political domination and balanced model of separation of powers. This leads to the gap between the formal structure of institutions and the real nature of power, predetermining the specific character of the existing political regimes.

Keywords: authoritarianism, institutions, political regime, social networks, transformation

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Authors: Ben Nwokenkwo, Michael M. Eze, Felix Ike

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The need to study trends in land values around institutions of higher learning cannot be overemphasized. Numerous studies in Nigeria have investigated the economic, and social influence of the sitting of institutions of higher learning at the micro, meso and macro levels. However, very few studies have evaluated the temporal extent at which such institution influences local land values. Since institutions greatly influence both the physical and environmental aspects of their immediate vicinity, attention must be taken to understand the influence of such changes on land values. This study examines the trend in land values using the Mann-Kendall analysis in order to determine if, between its beginning and end, a monotonic increase, decrease or stability exist in the land values across six institutions of higher learning for the period between 2004 and 2014. Specifically, The analysis was applied to the time series of the price(or value) of the land .The results of this study revealed that land values has either been increasing or remained stabled across all the institution sampled. The study finally recommends measures that can be put in place as counter magnets for land values estimation across institutions of higher learning.

Keywords: influence, land, trend, value

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Authors: Oyelade Oluwatoyin

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The phenomenon of crises in educational sector in Nigeria has reached its peak in the 21st century. Thus, this paper examines the strategies that can be used in managing the conflict situation in Nigeria Higher Institution of learning. The causes of conflicts such as inadequate funding, insufficient school facilities, poor working condition, poor enrolment, proliferation of higher institutions and unfavourable administrative decision are the major detriment of law and order i.e. strike action, destruction of property and programmes coupled with the student unrest. This write-up will make use of the available information and with the aim of adding value to existing knowledge. It was recommend that steps should be taken by policy maker to prevent scourge of conflicts in tertiary institutions in Nigeria

Keywords: conflicts, higher institutions, management, measures

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Authors: C. N. Okafor, M. Maaza, T. A. E. Mokrani

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A proton exchange membrane has been developed for Direct Methanol Fuel Cell (DMFC). The nanofiber network composite membranes were prepared by interconnected network of Nafion (perfuorosulfonic acid) nanofibers that have been embedded in an uncharged and inert polymer matrix, by electro-spinning. The spinning solution of Nafion with a low concentration (1 wt. % compared to Nafion) of high molecular weight poly(ethylene oxide), as a carrier polymer. The interconnected network of Nafion nanofibers with average fiber diameter in the range of 160-700nm, were used to make the membranes, with the nanofiber occupying up to 85% of the membrane volume. The matrix polymer was cross-linked with Norland Optical Adhesive 63 under UV. The resulting membranes showed proton conductivity of 0.10 S/cm at 25°C and 80% RH; and methanol permeability of 3.6 x 10-6 cm2/s.

Keywords: composite membrane, electrospinning, fuel cell, nanofibers

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Authors: Dinesh Sivaguru, Kamal Thilakasiri

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Preventing money laundering and terrorist financing is a major national and international problem today. Several attempts have been made to prevent money laundering by national and international dimension. These are often counteracted by the multi dynamic nature of the crimes. However, launders are often to use remittance systems to clean their ill-gotten money. This study presents the role of domestic financial institutions and the effective practices and actions should implement within domestic financial institutions to control and prevent financial crimes. This thesis highlights the progress that is required to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing, further it is an original contribution to the knowledge in an under researched field in Sri Lanka.

Keywords: money laundering, terrorists financing, financial institutions, regulatory bodies

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Authors: Alkhathlan Mansour

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Current research aims at achieving the organizational development in the educational institutions in the governorate of Al-Kharj through the human performance technology (HPT) model that is named; “The Intellectual Model to improve human performance”. To achieve the goal of this research, it tools -that it is consisting of targeted questionnaires to research sample numbered (120)- have been set up. This sample is represented in; department managers in Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University (50), educational supervisors in the Department of Education (40), school administrators in the governorate (30), and the views of education experts through personal interviews in the proposal to achieve organizational development through the intellectual model to improve human performance. Among the most important research results is that there are many obstacles prevent the organizational development in the educational institutions, so the research suggested a model to achieve organizational development through human performance technologies, as well as the researcher recommended through the results of his research that the administrators have to take into account the justice in the distribution of incentives to employees of educational institutions and training leaders in educational institutions on organizational development strategies and working on the preparation of experts of organizational development in the educational institutions to develop the necessary policies and procedures of each institution.

Keywords: human performance, development, education, organizational

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Authors: Ncamisile T. Zulu, Nicholas Munro

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Black women academics in higher education institutions are predominantly portrayed by literature as individuals who usually lack a sense of belonging, progression, and workload management. The oversaturation of this literature can (overtime) perpetuate a stereotypical idea that Black women academics are incapable of coping and succeeding in higher education institutions. The current article explores the agency, motivated by critical consciousness that Black women professors have and utilise in higher education institutions. In order to provide an understanding of how Black women academics can progress, manage their workloads and succeed in higher education institutions, the article considers how these women can take responsibility for their self-development, adaptation, and self-renewal in academic endeavours. As a result, the article presents a line of thought which could help in challenging the stereotype about Black women academics. The study was conducted at two higher education institutions involving Black women professors from different disciplines. A combination of purposive and snowballing sampling was used to recruit nine women participants, while data were collected through interviews. A critical consciousness perspective was adopted to formulate an understanding of the agency of Black women professors in higher education institutions, while thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. The results challenge the widely disseminated view that portrays Black women academics as incapable of coping and succeeding in higher education institutions. The findings highlight Black women professors as proactive, flexible, and self-regulating in their academic endeavours. These findings contribute to the literature by adding a more constructive narrative of Black women academics in higher education.

Keywords: agency, Black women academics, critical consciousness, higher education institutions

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Authors: Komlan Sedzro

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We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance

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Authors: Hiba Mezaache

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The study aims to assess the financial and social efficiency of microfinance institutions in india for the period 2015-2019 by using two models of economies of scale and choosing the output direction of the data envelope analysis (DEA) method and using the MIX MARKET database. The study concluded that microfinance institutions focus on achieving financial efficiency beyond their focus on achieving social efficiency to ensure their continuity in the market. Convergence in the efficiency ratios that have been achieved, but the optimum ratios have been achieved under the changing economies of scale; Efficiency is affected by the depth of reaching low-income groups, as serving this group raises costs and risks. The importance of lending to women in rural areas and raising their awareness to ensure their financial and social empowerment; Make improvements in operating expenses, asset management, and loan personnel control in order to maximize output.

Keywords: microfinance, financial efficiency, social efficiency, mix market, microfinance institutions

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Authors: Tina Vuko, Marija Maretić, Marko Čular

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The aim of this study is to analyze the role and effectiveness of internal mechanism (audit committee) of corporate governance on credit institutions performance in Croatia. Based on research objective, sample of 78 credit institutions listed on Zagreb Stock Exchange, from 2007 to 2012, has been collected and efficiency index of audit committee (EIAC) has been created. Based on the sample and created EIAC, conclusions are as follows: audit committees of credit institutions have medium efficiency, based on EIAC measurement; there is a significant difference in audit committee effectiveness, in observed period; there is no positive relationship between audit committee effectiveness and credit institution performance; there is a significant difference between level of audit committee effectiveness and audit firm type. Future research should contain increased number of elements in EIAC creation and increased sample, for all obligators who need to establish audit committee.

Keywords: corporate governance, audit committee, financial institutions, efficiency index of audit committee

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Authors: Kamil Jonski

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Last year vividly demonstrated, that populism and political instability can endanger democratic institutions in countries regarded as democratic transition champions (Poland) or cornerstones of liberal order (UK, US). So called ‘illiberal democracy’ is winning hearts and minds of voters, keen to believe that rule of strongman is a viable alternative to perceived decay of western values and institutions. These developments pose a serious threat to the democratic institutions (including rule of law), proven critical for both personal freedom and economic development. Although scholars proposed some structural explanations of the illiberal wave (notably focusing on inequality, stagnant incomes and drawbacks of globalization), they seem to have little predictive value. Indeed, events like Trump’s victory, Brexit or Polish shift towards populist nationalism always came as a surprise. Intriguingly, in the case of US election, simple rules like ‘Bread and Peace model’ gauged prospects of Trump’s victory better than pundits and pollsters. This paper attempts to compile set of indicators, in order to gauge various democracies’ vulnerability to populism, instability and pursuance of ‘illiberal’ projects. Among them, it identifies the gap between consensus assessment of institutional performance (as measured by WGI indicators) and citizens’ subjective assessment (survey based confidence in institutions). Plotting these variables against each other, reveals three clusters of countries – ‘predictable’ (good institutions and high confidence, poor institutions and low confidence), ‘blind’ (poor institutions, high confidence e.g. Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan) and ‘disillusioned’ (good institutions, low confidence e.g. Spain, Chile, Poland and US). It seems that this clustering – carried out separately for various institutions (like legislature, executive and courts) and blended with economic indicators like inequality and living standards (using PCA) – offers reasonably good watchlist of countries, that should ‘expect the unexpected’.

Keywords: illiberal democracy, populism, political instability, political risk measurement

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