Search results for: hierarchical model predictive control

Authors: David A. Padilla, Rodolfo Villamizar

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In recent years, closed loop control strategies have been developed in order to establish a healthy glucose profile in type 1 diabetic mellitus (T1DM) patients. However, the controller itself is unable to define a suitable reference trajectory for glucose. In this paper, a control strategy Is proposed where the shape of the reference trajectory is generated bases in the amount of carbohydrates present during the digestive process, due to the effect of carbohydrate intake. Since there no exists a sensor to measure the amount of carbohydrates consumed, an estimator is proposed. Thus this paper presents the entire process of designing a carbohydrate estimator, which allows estimate disturbance for a predictive controller (MPC) in a T1MD patient, the estimation will be used to establish a profile of reference and improve the response of the controller by providing the estimated information of ingested carbohydrates. The dynamics of the diabetic model used are due to the equations described by the UVA/Padova model of the T1DMS simulator, the system was developed and simulated in Simulink, taking into account the noise and limitations of the glucose control system actuators.

Keywords: estimation, glucose control, predictive controller, MPC, UVA/Padova

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Authors: Xiuying Wang, Changliang Li, Bo Xu

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A fixed-length feature vector is required for many machine learning algorithms in NLP field. Word embeddings have been very successful at learning lexical information. However, they cannot capture the compositional meaning of sentences, which prevents them from a deeper understanding of language. In this paper, we introduce a novel hierarchical tree long short-term memory (HTLSTM) model that learns vector representations for sentences of arbitrary syntactic type and length. We propose to split one sentence into three hierarchies: short phrase, long phrase and full sentence level. The HTLSTM model gives our algorithm the potential to fully consider the hierarchical information and long-term dependencies of language. We design the experiments on both English and Chinese corpus to evaluate our model on sentiment analysis task. And the results show that our model outperforms several existing state of the art approaches significantly.

Keywords: deep learning, hierarchical tree long short-term memory, sentence representation, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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Authors: Masood Roohi, Amir Taghavipour

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This paper describes a strategy to develop an energy management system (EMS) for a charge-sustaining power-split hybrid electric vehicle. This kind of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) benefit from the advantages of both parallel and series architecture. However, it gets relatively more complicated to manage power flow between the battery and the engine optimally. The applied strategy in this paper is based on nonlinear model predictive control approach. First of all, an appropriate control-oriented model which was accurate enough and simple was derived. Towards utilization of this controller in real-time, the problem was solved off-line for a vast area of reference signals and initial conditions and stored the computed manipulated variables inside look-up tables. Look-up tables take a little amount of memory. Also, the computational load dramatically decreased, because to find required manipulated variables the controller just needed a simple interpolation between tables.

Keywords: hybrid electric vehicles, energy management system, nonlinear model predictive control, real-time

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Authors: Hamed Sarbazy, Zohre Gholipour Haftkhani, Ali Safari, Pejman Hosseiniun

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Scientific and industrial progress in the past two decades has resulted in energy distribution systems based on power electronics, as an enabling technology in various industries and building management systems can be considered. Grading and standardization module power electronics systems and its use in a distributed control system, a strategy for overcoming the limitations of using this system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate strategies for scheduling and control structure of standard modules is a power electronic systems. This paper introduces the classical control methods and disadvantages of these methods will be discussed, The hierarchical control as a mechanism for distributed control structure of the classification module explains. The different levels of control and communication between these levels are fully introduced. Also continue to standardize software distribution system control structure is discussed. Finally, as an example, the control structure will be presented in a DC distribution system.

Keywords: application management, hardware management, power electronics, building blocks

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Authors: Mais Khader, Xingjie Wei

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This research sheds light on female entrepreneurs by providing new insights on the survival predictions of companies led by females in the UK. This study aims to build a predictive machine learning model of the survival of female-led & co-led small & medium enterprises (SMEs) in the UK over the period 2000-2020. The predictive model built utilised a combination of financial and non-financial features related to both companies and their directors to predict SMEs' survival. These features were studied in terms of their contribution to the resultant predictive model. Five machine learning models are used in the modelling: Decision tree, AdaBoost, Naïve Bayes, Logistic regression and SVM. The AdaBoost model had the highest performance of the five models, with an accuracy of 73% and an AUC of 80%. The results show high feature importance in predicting companies' survival for company size, management experience, financial performance, industry, region, and females' percentage in management.

Keywords: company survival, entrepreneurship, females, machine learning, SMEs

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Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

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Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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Authors: Fabio Fabris, Alex A. Freitas

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Hierarchical classification is a special type of classification task where the class labels are organised into a hierarchy, with more generic class labels being ancestors of more specific ones. Meta-learning for classification-algorithm recommendation consists of recommending to the user a classification algorithm, from a pool of candidate algorithms, for a dataset, based on the past performance of the candidate algorithms in other datasets. Meta-learning is normally used in conventional, non-hierarchical classification. By contrast, this paper proposes a meta-learning approach for more challenging task of hierarchical classification, and evaluates it in a large number of bioinformatics datasets. Hierarchical classification is especially relevant for bioinformatics problems, as protein and gene functions tend to be organised into a hierarchy of class labels. This work proposes meta-learning approach for recommending the best hierarchical classification algorithm to a hierarchical classification dataset. This work’s contributions are: 1) proposing an algorithm for splitting hierarchical datasets into new datasets to increase the number of meta-instances, 2) proposing meta-features for hierarchical classification, and 3) interpreting decision-tree meta-models for hierarchical classification algorithm recommendation.

Keywords: algorithm recommendation, meta-learning, bioinformatics, hierarchical classification

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Authors: M. T. Alodat

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In this paper, we propose a generalization to the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model called the extended skew Gaussian process for regression(ESGPr) model. The ESGPR model works better than the GPR model when the errors are skewed. We derive the predictive distribution for the ESGPR model at a new input. Also we apply the ESGPR model to FOREX data and we find that it fits the Forex data better than the GPR model.

Keywords: extended skew normal distribution, Gaussian process for regression, predictive distribution, ESGPr model

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Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

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Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

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Authors: Mary Fargher

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This paper examines the opportunities of using a more hierarchical approach to geospatial enquiry in using GIS in school geography. A case is made that it is not just the lack of teacher technological knowledge that is stopping some teachers from using GIS in the classroom but that there is a gap in their understanding of how to link GIS use more specifically to the pedagogy of teaching geography with GIS. Using a hierarchical approach to geospatial enquiry as a theoretical framework, the analysis shows clearly how concepts of spatial distribution, interaction, relation, comparison, and temporal relationships can be used by teachers more explicitly to capitalise on the analytical power of GIS and to construct what can be interpreted as powerful geographical knowledge. An exemplar illustrating this approach on the topic of geo-hazards is then presented for critical analysis and discussion. Recommendations are then made for a model of progression for geography teacher education with GIS through hierarchical geospatial enquiry that takes into account beginner, intermediate, and more advanced users.

Keywords: digital geography, GIS, education, hierarchical geospatial enquiry, powerful geographical knowledge

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Authors: Sahar El-Achkar, Mizan Ahmad

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Poor adaptation of developmental milestones over the lifespan can significantly impact emotional experiences and Satisfaction with Life (SWL) post-retirement. Thus, it is important to understand how adaptive behaviour over the life course can predict emotional experiences. Broadly emotional experiences are either Positive Affect (PA) or Negative Affect (NA). This study sought to explore the impact of successful adaptation of developmental milestones throughout one’s life on emotional experiences and satisfaction with life following retirement. A cross-sectional self-report survey was completed by 132 Australian retirees between the ages 55 and 70 years. Three hierarchical regression models were fitted, controlling for age and gender, to predict PA, NA, and SWL. The full model predicting PA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 17.97, p < .001, account for 57% of the variability in PA. Industry/Inferiority were significantly predictive of PA. The full model predicting NA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 12.00, p < .001, accounting for 51% of the variability in NA. Age and Trust/Mistrust were significantly predictive of NA. The full model predicting NA was statistically significant overall, F (8, 121) = 12.00, p < .001, accounting for 51% of the variability in NA. Age and Trust/Mistrust were significantly predictive of NA. The full model predicting SWL, F (8, 121) = 11.05, p < .001, accounting for 45% of the variability in SWL. Trust/Mistrust and Ego Integrity/Despair were significantly predictive of SWL. A sense of industry post-retirement is important in generating PA. These results highlight that individuals presenting with adaptation and identity issues are likely to present with adjustment challenges and unpleasant emotional experiences post-retirement. This supports the importance of identifying and understanding the benefits of successful adaptation and development throughout the lifespan and its significance for the self-concept. Most importantly, the quality of lives of many may be improved, and the future risk of continued poor emotional experiences and SWL post-retirement may be mitigated. Specifically, the clinical implications of these findings are that they support the promotion of successful adaption over the life course and healthy ageing.

Keywords: adaptation, development, negative affect, positive affect, retirement, satisfaction with life

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Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

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This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

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The Internet of Things (IoT) was designed for widespread convenience. With the smart tag and the sensing network, a large quantity of dynamic information is immediately presented in the IoT. Through the internal communication and interaction, meaningful objects provide real-time services for users. Therefore, the service with appropriate decision-making has become an essential issue. Based on the science of human behavior, this study employed the environment model to record the time sequences and locations of different behaviors and adopted the probability module of the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model for the inference. The statistical analysis was conducted to achieve the following objectives: First, define user behaviors and predict the user behavior routes with the environment model to analyze user purposes. Second, construct the hierarchical Hidden Markov Model according to the logic framework, and establish the sequential intensity among behaviors to get acquainted with the use and activity fabric of the intelligent environment. Third, establish the intensity of the relation between the probability of objects’ being used and the objects. The indicator can describe the possible limitations of the mechanism. As the process is recorded in the information of the system created in this study, these data can be reused to adjust the procedure of intelligent design services.

Keywords: behavior, big data, hierarchical hidden Markov model, intelligent object

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Authors: Abdelhalim Kessal

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This paper treats a design of combined control of a single phase power factor correction (PFC). The strategy of the proposed control is based on two parts, the first, for the outer loop (DC output regulated voltage), and the second govern the input current of the converter in order to achieve a sinusoidal form in phase with the grid voltage. Two kinds of regulators are used, Fuzzy controller for the outer loop and predictive controller for the inner loop. The controllers are verified and discussed through simulation under MATLAB/Simulink platform. Also an experimental confirmation is applied. Results present a high dynamic performance under various parameters changes.

Keywords: boost converter, harmonic distortion, Fuzzy, predictive, unity power factor

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Authors: Radhia Toujani, Jalel Akaichi

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Social Networks generally present a hierarchy of communities. To determine these communities and the relationship between them, detection algorithms should be applied. Most of the existing algorithms, proposed for hierarchical communities identification, are based on either agglomerative clustering or divisive clustering. In this paper, we present a hybrid hierarchical clustering approach for community detection based on both bottom-up and bottom-down clustering. Obviously, our approach provides more relevant community structure than hierarchical method which considers only divisive or agglomerative clustering to identify communities. Moreover, we performed some comparative experiments to enhance the quality of the clustering results and to show the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Keywords: agglomerative hierarchical clustering, community structure, divisive hierarchical clustering, hybrid hierarchical clustering, opinion mining, social network, social network analysis

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Authors: Wajahat Ali, Shakeel Javaid

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In this study, we have developed a mathematical programming model for a solid transportation problem with three objective functions arranged in hierarchical order. The mathematical programming models with more than one objective function to be solved in hierarchical order is termed as a multi-level programming model. Our study explores a Multi-Level Solid Transportation Problem with Uncertain Parameters (MLSTPWU). The proposed MLSTPWU model consists of three objective functions, viz. minimization of transportation cost, minimization of total transportation time, and minimization of deterioration during transportation. These three objective functions are supposed to be solved by decision-makers at three consecutive levels. Three constraint functions are added to the model, restricting the total availability, total demand, and capacity of modes of transportation. All the parameters involved in the model are assumed to be uncertain in nature. A solution method based on fuzzy logic is also discussed to obtain the compromise solution for the proposed model. Further, a simulated numerical example is discussed to establish the efficiency and applicability of the proposed model.

Keywords: solid transportation problem, multi-level programming, uncertain variable, uncertain environment

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Authors: Damtew Samson Zerihun

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This paper primarily describes the concept of a hierarchical safety control (HSC) in discrete manufacturing to up-hold productivity with human intervention and machine failures using a systematic approach, through increasing the system availability and using additional knowledge on machines so as to improve the human machine collaboration (HMC). It also highlights the implemented PLC safety algorithm, in applying this generic concept to a concrete pro-duction line using a lab demonstrator called FATIE (Factory Automation Test and Integration Environment). Furthermore, the paper describes a model and provide a systematic representation of human-machine collabora-tion in discrete manufacturing and to this end, the Hierarchical Safety Control concept is proposed. This offers a ge-neric description of human-machine collaboration based on Finite State Machines (FSM) that can be applied to vari-ous discrete manufacturing lines instead of using ad-hoc solutions for each line. With its reusability, flexibility, and extendibility, the Hierarchical Safety Control scheme allows upholding productivity while maintaining safety with reduced engineering effort compared to existing solutions. The approach to the solution begins with a successful partitioning of different zones around the Integrated Manufacturing System (IMS), which are defined by operator tasks and the risk assessment, used to describe the location of the human operator and thus to identify the related po-tential hazards and trigger the corresponding safety functions to mitigate it. This includes selective reduced speed zones and stop zones, and in addition with the hierarchical safety control scheme and advanced safety functions such as safe standstill and safe reduced speed are used to achieve the main goals in improving the safe Human Ma-chine Collaboration and increasing the productivity. In a sample scenarios, It is shown that an increase of productivity in the order of 2.5% is already possible with a hi-erarchical safety control, which consequently under a given assumptions, a total sum of 213 € could be saved for each intervention, compared to a protective stop reaction. Thereby the loss is reduced by 22.8%, if occasional haz-ard can be refined in a hierarchical way. Furthermore, production downtime due to temporary unavailability of safety devices can be avoided with safety failover that can save millions per year. Moreover, the paper highlights the proof of the development, implementation and application of the concept on the lab demonstrator (FATIE), where it is realized on the new safety PLCs, Drive Units, HMI as well as Safety devices in addition to the main components of the IMS.

Keywords: discrete automation, hierarchical safety controller, human machine collaboration, programmable logical controller

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Authors: Z. Abdullah, A. R. Hamdan

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Clustering is a process of grouping objects and data into groups of clusters to ensure that data objects from the same cluster are identical to each other. Clustering algorithms in one of the areas in data mining and it can be classified into partition, hierarchical, density based, and grid-based. Therefore, in this paper, we do a survey and review for four major hierarchical clustering algorithms called CURE, ROCK, CHAMELEON, and BIRCH. The obtained state of the art of these algorithms will help in eliminating the current problems, as well as deriving more robust and scalable algorithms for clustering.

Keywords: clustering, unsupervised learning, algorithms, hierarchical

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Authors: Fatih Tarlak

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Predictive microbiology can be considered as an important field in food microbiology in which it uses predictive models to describe the microbial growth in different food products. Predictive models estimate the growth of microorganisms quickly, efficiently, and in a cost-effective way as compared to traditional methods of enumeration, which are long-lasting, expensive, and time-consuming. The mathematical models used in predictive microbiology are mainly categorised as primary and secondary models. The primary models are the mathematical equations that define the growth data as a function of time under a constant environmental condition. The secondary models describe the effects of environmental factors, such as temperature, pH, and water activity (aw) on the parameters of the primary models, including the maximum specific growth rate and lag phase duration, which are the most critical growth kinetic parameters. The combination of primary and secondary models provides valuable information to set limits for the quantitative detection of the microbial spoilage and assess product shelf-life.

Keywords: shelf-life, growth model, predictive microbiology, simulation

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Authors: Seon-Ho Yoon, Jin-Young Choi, Dong-Jun Won

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This paper presents hierarchical operation strategies which are minimizing operation error between day ahead operation plan and real time operation. Operating power systems between centralized and decentralized approaches can be represented as hierarchical control scheme, featured as primary control, secondary control and tertiary control. Primary control is known as local control, featuring fast response. Secondary control is referred to as microgrid Energy Management System (EMS). Tertiary control is responsible of coordinating the operations of multi-microgrids. In this paper, we formulated 3 stage microgrid operation strategies which are similar to hierarchical control scheme. First stage is to set a day ahead scheduled output power of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) which is only controllable source in microgrid and it is optimized to minimize cost of exchanged power with main grid using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. Second stage is to control the active and reactive power of BESS to be operated in day ahead scheduled plan in case that State of Charge (SOC) error occurs between real time and scheduled plan. The third is rescheduling the system when the predicted error is over the limited value. The first stage can be compared with the secondary control in that it adjusts the active power. The second stage is comparable to the primary control in that it controls the error in local manner. The third stage is compared with the secondary control in that it manages power balancing. The proposed strategies will be applied to one of the buildings in Electronics and Telecommunication Research Institute (ETRI). The building microgrid is composed of Photovoltaic (PV) generation, BESS and load and it will be interconnected with the main grid. Main purpose of that is minimizing operation cost and to be operated in scheduled plan. Simulation results support validation of proposed strategies.

Keywords: Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), Energy Management System (EMS), Microgrid (MG), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Abhimanyu Kumar, Chirag Gupta

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This work presents a comprehensive study on the employment of Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a three-phase voltage-source inverter to regulate the output voltage efficiently. The inverter is modeled via the Clarke Transformation, considering a scenario where the load is unknown. An LC filter model is developed, demonstrating its efficacy in Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) reduction. The system, when implemented with fault-tolerant multilevel inverter topologies, ensures reliable operation even under fault conditions, a requirement that is paramount with the increasing dependence on renewable energy sources. The research also integrates a Fuzzy Logic based fault tolerance system which identifies and manages faults, ensuring consistent inverter performance. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is substantiated through rigorous simulations and comparative results, shedding light on the voltage prediction efficiency and the robustness of the model even under fault conditions.

Keywords: total harmonic distortion, fuzzy logic, renewable energy sources, MLI

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Authors: Ce Liu, Wei Huo

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A nonlinear trajectory tracking controller for quadrotor helicopter based on controlled Lagrangian (CL) method is proposed in this paper. A Lagrangian system with virtual angles as generated coordinates rather than Euler angles is developed. Based on the model, the matching conditions presented by nonlinear partial differential equations are simplified and explicitly solved. Smooth tracking control laws and the range of control parameters are deduced based on the controlled energy of closed-loop system. Besides, a constraint condition for reference accelerations is deduced to identify the trackable reference trajectories by the proposed controller and to ensure the stability of the closed-loop system. The proposed method in this paper does not rely on the division of the quadrotor system, and the design of the control torques does not depend on the thrust as in backstepping or hierarchical control method. Simulations for a quadrotor model demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the theoretical results.

Keywords: quadrotor, trajectory tracking control, controlled lagrangians, underactuated system

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Authors: Marina Vicario, Amadeo Argüelles, Pilar Gómez, Carlos Hernández

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In this paper, the Computer Research Network of the National Polytechnic Institute of Mexico proposes a paradigmatic model for the inference of cognitive patterns in digital learning systems. This model leads to metadata architecture useful for analysis and prediction in online learning systems; especially on MOOc's architectures. The model is in the design phase and expects to be tested through an institutional of courses project which is going to develop for the MOOc.

Keywords: cognitive footprints, learning analytics, predictive learning, digital learning, educational computing, educational informatics

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Authors: Zhiyuan Du, Baisravan Hom Chaudhuri, Pierluigi Pisu

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In connected vehicle systems where wireless communication is available among the involved vehicles and intersection controllers, it is possible to design an intersection coordination strategy that leads the connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) travel through the road intersections without the conventional traffic light control. In this paper, we present a distributed coordination strategy for the CAVs at multiple interconnected intersections that aims at improving system fuel efficiency and system mobility. We present a distributed control solution where in the higher level, the intersection controllers calculate the road desired average velocity and optimally assign reference velocities of each vehicle. In the lower level, every vehicle is considered to use model predictive control (MPC) to track their reference velocity obtained from the higher level controller. The proposed method has been implemented on a simulation-based case with two-interconnected intersection network. Additionally, the effects of mixed vehicle types on the coordination strategy has been explored. Simulation results indicate the improvement on vehicle fuel efficiency and traffic mobility of the proposed method.

Keywords: connected vehicles, automated vehicles, intersection coordination systems, multiple interconnected intersections, model predictive control

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Authors: M. R. Rouhi, S. Shafiei, A. Taghavipour, H. Adibi-Asl, A. Doosthoseini

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This research targets at alleviating the problem of range anxiety associated with the battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by considering mechanical and control aspects of the powertrain. In this way, all the energy consuming components and their effect on reducing the range of the BEV and battery life index are identified. On the other hand, an appropriate control strategy is designed to guarantee the performance of the BEV and the extended electric range which is evaluated by an extensive simulation procedure and a real-world driving schedule.

Keywords: battery, electric vehicles, ultra-capacitor, model predictive control

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Authors: Shadab Shishegar, Sophie Duchesne, Genevieve Pelletier

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Sustainability as one of the key elements of Smart cities, can be realized by employing Real Time Control Strategies for city’s infrastructures. Nowadays Stormwater management systems play an important role in mitigating the impacts of urbanization on natural hydrological cycle. These systems can be managed in such a way that they meet the smart cities standards. In fact, there is a huge potential for sustainable management of urban stormwater and also its adaptability to global challenges like climate change. Hence, a dynamically managed system that can adapt itself to instability of the environmental conditions is desirable. A Global Predictive Real Time Control approach is proposed in this paper to optimize the performance of stormwater management basins in terms of flooding prevention. To do so, a mathematical optimization model is developed then solved using Genetic Algorithm (GA). Results show an improved performance at system-level for the stormwater basins in comparison to static strategy.

Keywords: environmental sustainability, optimization, real time control, storm water management

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Authors: Ameur Abdelkader, Abed Bouarfa Hafida

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Since its inception, predictive analysis has revolutionized the IT industry through its robustness and decision-making facilities. It involves the application of a set of data processing techniques and algorithms in order to create predictive models. Its principle is based on finding relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables. Past occurrences are exploited to predict and to derive the unknown outcome. With the advent of big data, many studies have suggested the use of predictive analytics in order to process and analyze big data. Nevertheless, they have been curbed by the limits of classical methods of predictive analysis in case of a large amount of data. In fact, because of their volumes, their nature (semi or unstructured) and their variety, it is impossible to analyze efficiently big data via classical methods of predictive analysis. The authors attribute this weakness to the fact that predictive analysis algorithms do not allow the parallelization and distribution of calculation. In this paper, we propose to extend the predictive analysis algorithm, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), in order to adapt it for big data analysis. The major changes of this algorithm are presented and then a version of the extended algorithm is defined in order to make it applicable for a huge quantity of data.

Keywords: predictive analysis, big data, predictive analysis algorithms, CART algorithm

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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