Search results for: heavy rainfall

Authors: Sisuwan Kaseamsawat, Sivapan Choo-In

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A study was conducted in May to July 2013 with the aim of determination of heavy metal concentration in orchard area. 60 samples were collected and analyzed for Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), Lead (Pb), and Zinc (Zn) by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS). The heavy metal concentrations in sediment of orchards, that use chemical for Cd (1.13 ± 0.26 mg/l), Cu (8.00 ± 1.05 mg/l), Pb (13.16 ± 2.01) and Zn (37.41 ± 3.20 mg/l). The heavy metal concentrations in sediment of the orchards, that do not use chemical for Cd (1.28 ± 0.50 mg/l), Cu (7.60 ± 1.20 mg/l), Pb (29.87 ± 4.88) and Zn (21.79 ± 2.98 mg/l). Statistical analysis between heavy metal in sediment from the orchard, that use chemical and the orchard, that not use chemical were difference statistic significant of 0.5 level of significant for Cd and Pb while no statistically difference for Cu and Zn.

Keywords: heavy metal, orchard, pollution and monitoring, sediment

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Authors: Okyu Kwon, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim, Seungkwon Jung

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We propose a technique to measure the impact of loss of traffic function in a particular area to surrounding areas. The proposed method is applied to the city of Seoul, which is the capital of South Korea, with a population of about ten million. Based on the actual road network in Seoul, we construct an abstract road network between 1kmx1km grid cells. The link weight of the abstract road network is re-adjusted considering traffic volume measured at several survey points. On the modified abstract road network, we evaluate the traffic vulnerability by calculating a network measure of betweenness centrality (BC) for every single grid cells. This study analyzes traffic impacts caused by road dysfunction due to heavy rainfall in urban areas. We could see the change of the BC value in all other grid cells by calculating the BC value once again when the specific grid cell lost its traffic function, that is, when the node disappeared on the grid-based road network. The results show that it is appropriate to use the sum of the BC variation of other cells as the influence index of each lattice cell on traffic. This research was supported by a grant (2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS).

Keywords: vulnerability, road network, beweenness centrality, heavy rainfall, road impact

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Ataur Rahman

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Due to climate change, future rainfall will change at many locations on earth; however, the spatial and temporal patterns of this change are not easy to predict. One approach of predicting such future changes is to examine the trends in the historical rainfall data at a given region and use the identified trends to make future prediction. For this, a statistical trend test is commonly applied to the historical data. This paper examines the trends of daily extreme rainfall events from 30 rain gauges located in the State of Qatar. Rainfall data covering from 1962 to 2011 were used in the analysis. A combination of four non-parametric and parametric tests was applied to identify trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. These tests are Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho (SR), Linear Regression (LR) and CUSUM tests. These tests showed both positive and negative trends throughout the country. Only eight stations showed positive (upward) trend, which were however not statistically significant. In contrast, significant negative (downward) trends were found at the 5% and 10% levels of significance in six stations. The MK, SR and LR tests exhibited very similar results. This finding has important implications in the derivation/upgrade of design rainfall for Qatar, which will affect design and operation of future urban drainage infrastructure in Qatar.

Keywords: trends, extreme rainfall, daily rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, climate change, Qatar

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Authors: Clarinda Vitorino Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

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Weather derivatives are financial products used to cover non catastrophic weather events with a weather index as the underlying asset. The rainfall weather derivative pricing model is modeled based in the assumption that the rainfall dynamics follows Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and the partial differential equation approach is used to derive the convection-diffusion two dimensional time dependent partial differential equation, where the spatial variables are the rainfall index and rainfall depth. To compute the approximation solutions of the partial differential equation, the appropriate boundary conditions are suggested, and an explicit numerical method is proposed in order to deal efficiently with the different choices of the coefficients involved in the equation. Being an explicit numerical method, it will be conditionally stable, then the stability region of the numerical method and the order of convergence are discussed. The model is tested for real precipitation data.

Keywords: finite differences method, ornstein-uhlenbeck process, partial differential equations approach, rainfall derivatives

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Authors: I. Yunusa, M. A. Ibrahim, A. H. Yakasai, L. U. S. Ezeanyika

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This study was conducted to examine the level of heavy metals among 192 apparently healthy female adolescents randomly selected from three different boarding secondary schools in the urban area of the most populated city in north-western part of Nigeria. Atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) was used to determine the plasma levels of the heavy metals which include cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn). Our findings revealed the following mean±SD values for each of the heavy metal; 0.11±0.01µg Cd/L, 0.09 ± 0.02µg Co/L, 0.19 ± 0.02 µg Cr/L, 0.91 ± 0.02 µg Cu/L, 1.53 ± 0.31 µg Fe/L, 0.01 ± 0.04 µg Mn/L, 0.3.8 ± 0.04µg Mo/L, 0.04±0.01µg Ni/L, 0.04 ± 0.01µg Pb/L and 2.80 ± 0.24µg Zn/L respectively. It was concluded that toxicity from heavy metals did not exist among female adolescents.

Keywords: heavy metals, female, adolescents, Nigeria

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Authors: Majid Mathlouthi, Fethi Lebdi

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Throughout the world, the extent and magnitude of droughts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Today climate change has become more and more felt; most likely they increase the frequency and duration of droughts. An analysis by event of dry event, from series of observations of the daily rainfall is carried out. A daily precipitation threshold value has been set. A catchment localized in Northern Tunisia where the average rainfall is about 600 mm has been studied. Rainfall events are defined as an uninterrupted series of rainfall days understanding at least a day having received a precipitation superior or equal to a fixed threshold. The dry events are constituted of a series of dry days framed by two successive rainfall events. A rainfall event is a vector of coordinates the duration, the rainfall depth per event and the duration of the dry event. The depth and duration are found to be correlated. So we use conditional probabilities to analyse the depth per event. The negative binomial distribution fits well the dry event. The duration of the rainfall event follows a geometric distribution. The length of the climatically cycle adjusts to the Incomplete Gamma. Results of this analysis was used to study of the effects of climate change on water resources and crops and to calibrate precipitation models with little rainfall records. In response to long droughts in the basin, the drought management system is based on three phases during each of the three phases; different measurements are applied and executed. The first is before drought, preparedness and early warning; the second is drought management, mitigation in the event of drought; and the last subsequent drought, when the drought is over.

Keywords: dry spell, precipitation threshold, climate vulnerability, adaptation measures

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Authors: Zhang Hui, Wu Caiqiu, Yuan Xuyin, Qiu Jie, Zhang Hanpei

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The heavy metal contaminations were determined with a detailed soil survey in roadside soils along Shenyang-Dalian Highway of Liaoning Province (China) and Pb, Cu, Cd, Ni and Zn were analyzed using the atomic absorption spectrophotometric method. The average concentration of Pb, Cu, Cd, Ni and Zn in roadside soils was determined to be 43.8, 26.5, 0.119, 32.1, 71.3 mg/kg respectively, and all of the heavy metal contents were higher than the background values. Different heavy metal distribution regularity was found in different land use type of roadside soil, there was an obvious peak of heavy concentration at 25m from road edge in the farmland, while in the forest and orchard soil, all heavy metals gradually decreased with the increase of distance from road edge and conformed to the exponential model. Furthermore, the heavy metal contents of heavy metals except Cd were markedly increased compared with those in 1999 and 2007, and the heavy metals concentrations of Shenyang- Dalian Highway were considered medium or low in comparison with those in other cities around the world. The assessment of heavy metal contamination of roadside soils illustrated a common low pollution for all heavy metal and recommended that more attention should be paid to Pb contamination in roadside soils in Shenyang-Dalian Highway.

Keywords: heavy metal contamination, roadside, highway, Nemerow Pollution Index

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Authors: J. O. Yeboah, K Aboraa, K. Kodom

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The chemical and physical characteristics of rainwater harvested from a typical rooftop were progressively studied. The samples of rainwater collected were analyzed for pH, major ion concentrations, TDS, turbidity, conductivity. All the physicochemical constituents fell within the WHO guideline limits at some points as rainfall progresses except the pH. All the components of rainwater quality measured during the study showed higher concentrations during the early stages of rainfall and reduce as time progresses. There was a downward trend in terms of pH as rain progressed, with 18% of the samples recording pH below the WHO limit of 6.5-8.0. It was observed that iron concentration was above the WHO threshold value of 0.3 mg/l on occasions of heavy rains. The results revealed that most of physicochemical characteristics of rainwater samples were generally below the WHO threshold, as such, the rainwater characteristics showed satisfactory conditions in terms of physicochemical constituents.

Keywords: conductivity, pH, physicochemical, rainwater quality, TDS

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Authors: Hasan G. Elmazoghi, Aisha I. Alzayani, Lubna S. Bentaher

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Rainfall is a highly non-linear phenomena, which requires application of powerful supervised data mining techniques for its accurate prediction. In this study the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is used to predict the mean monthly historical rainfall data collected from BENINA station in Benghazi for 31 years, the period of “1977-2006” and the results are compared against the observed values. The specific objective to achieve this goal was to determine the best combination of weather variables to be used as inputs for the ANN model. Several statistical parameters were calculated and an uncertainty analysis for the results is also presented. The best ANN model is then applied to the data of one year (2007) as a case study in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation results reveal that application of ANN technique is promising and can provide reliable estimates of rainfall.

Keywords: neural networks, rainfall, prediction, climatic variables

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Authors: Mohd N. Ahmad, Lariyah Mohd Sidek

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The study had shown that Sungai Penchala (urban) was experiencing localized rainfall and hazardous air pollution due to urbanization. The high rainfall that partly added by localized rain had been seen as a threat of causing the flash floods and water quality deterioration in the area. The air pollution that consisted of mainly particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) gave an alarming air pollution index (API) to the surrounding area. Comparison among urban area (Sungai Penchala), sub-urban (Gombak), and green areas (Jerantut plus Temerloh) with respect to the rainfall parameters and air pollutants, it was found that the degree of intensities of the parameters was positively related with the urbanization. The air pollutants especially NO2, SO2, and CO were in tandem with the increase of the rainfall. Specifically, if the water catchment area is physically near to the urban area, then the authorities need to look into related urban development program by considering the management of emitted pollutants with respect to the ecological setting of the urban area.

Keywords: urbanization, green area localized rainfall, air pollution, sub-urban area

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Authors: Godfrey Nsereko, Daniel Kadobera, Denis Okethwangu, Joyce Nguna, Alex Riolexus Ario

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Background: Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Uganda. In April 2018, malaria cases surged in Nwoya District, northern Uganda, exceeding the action thresholds. We investigated to assess the outbreak’s magnitude, identify transmission risk factors, and recommend evidence-based control measures. Methods: We defined a malaria case as onset of fever in a resident of Nwoya District with a positive Rapid Diagnostic Test or microscopy for malaria P. falciparum from 1 February to 22 May 2018. We reviewed medical records in all health facilities of affected sub-counties to find cases. In a case-control study, we compared exposure risk factors between 107 case-persons and 107 asymptomatic controls matched by age and village. We conducted entomological assessment on vector-density and behavior. Results: We identified 3,879 case-persons (attack rate [AR]=6.5%) and 2 deaths (case-fatality rate=5.2/10,000). Females (AR=8.1%) were more affected than males (AR=4.7%). Of all age groups, the 5-18 year age group (AR=8.4%) was most affected. Heavy rain started on 4 March; a propagated outbreak began during the week of 2 April. In the case-control study, 55% (59/107) of case-patients and 18% (19/107) of controls had stagnant water around households for several days following rainfall (ORM-H=5.6, 95%CI=3.0-11); 25% (27/107) of case-patients and 51% (55/107) of controls wore long-sleeve cloths during evening hours (ORM-H=0.30, 95%CI=0.20-0.60); 29% (31/107) of case-patients and 15% (16/107) of controls did not sleep under a long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) (ORM-H=2.3, 95%CI=1.1-4.9); 37% (40/107) of case-patients and 52% (56/107) of controls had ≥1 LLIN per 2 household members (ORM-H=0.54, 95%CI=0.30-0.97). Entomological assessment indicated active breeding sites; Anopheles gambiae sensu lato species were the predominant vector. Conclusion: Increased vector breeding sites after heavy rainfall, together with inadequate malaria preventive measures caused this outbreak. We recommended increasing coverage for LLINs and larviciding breeding sites.

Keywords: malaria outbreak, Plasmodium falciparum, global health security, Uganda

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Authors: G. G. Kagramanov, E. N. Farnosova, Linn Maung Maung

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The technologies of ion exchange and nanofiltration can be used for treatment of wastewater containing copper and other heavy metal ions to decrease the environmental risks. Nanofiltration characteristics under water treatment of heavy metals have been studied. The influence of main technical process parameters - pressure, temperature, concentration and pH value of the initial solution on flux and rejection of nanofiltration membranes has been considered. And ion exchange capacities of resins in removal of heavy metal ions from wastewater have been determined.

Keywords: exchange capacity, heavy metals, ion exchange, membrane separation, nanofiltration

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: J. Julius Adebayo

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The objective of this paper is to assess the agro-climatic condition of Ibadan in the rain forest ecological zone of Nigeria, using rainfall pattern and temperature between 1978-2018. Data on rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Oyo State for a period of 40 years were obtained from Meteorological Section of Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan and Oyo State Meteorology Centre. Time series analysis was employed to analyze the data. The trend revealed that rainfall is decreasing slowly and temperature is averagely increasing year after year. The model for rainfall and temperature are Yₜ = 1454.11-8*t and Yₜ = 31.5995 + 2.54 E-02*t respectively, where t is the time. On this basis, a forecast of 20 years (2019-2038) was generated, and the results showed a further downward trend on rainfall and upward trend in temperature, this indicates persistence rainfall shortage and very hot weather for agricultural practices in the southwest rain forest ecological zone. Suggestions on possible solutions to avert climate change crisis and also promote climate-smart agriculture for sustainable food and nutrition security were also discussed.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall pattern, temperature, time series analysis, food and nutrition security

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: A. Argiri, A. Molla, Tzouvalekas, E. Skoufogianni, N. Danalatos

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The release of heavy metals into the environment has increased over the last years. In this study, 25 soil samples (0-15 cm) from the fields near the mining area in Drama region were selected. The samples were analyzed in the laboratory for their physicochemical properties and for seven “pseudo-total’’ heavy metals content, namely Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Mn. The total metal concentrations (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni and Mn) in digests were determined by using the atomic absorption spectrophotometer. According to the results, the mean concentration of the listed heavy metals in 25 soil samples are Cd 1.1 mg/kg, Cr 15 mg/kg, Cu 21.7 mg/kg, Ni 30.1 mg/kg, Pd 50.8 mg/kg, Zn 99.5 mg/kg and Mn 815.3 mg/kg. The results show that the heavy metals remain in the soil even if the mining closed many years ago.

Keywords: Greece, heavy metals, mining, pollution

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Authors: Shyamli Singh, Ishupinder Kaur, Vinod K. Sharma

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Climate Change refers to the change in climate for extended period of time. Climate is changing from the past history of earth but anthropogenic activities accelerate this rate of change and which is now being a global issue. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing global warming and climate change related issues at an alarming rate. Increasing temperature results in climate variability across the globe. Changes in rainfall patterns, intensity and extreme events are some of the impacts of climate change. Rainfall variability refers to the degree to which rainfall patterns varies over a region (spatial) or through time period (temporal). Temporal rainfall variability can be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. Such variability in rainfall increases the vulnerability of communities towards climate change. Increasing urbanization and unplanned developmental activities, the air quality is deteriorating. This paper mainly focuses on the rainfall variability due to increasing level of greenhouse gases. Rainfall data of 65 years (1951-2015) of Safdarjung station of Delhi was collected from Indian Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall test for time-series data analysis. Mann-Kendall test is a statistical tool helps in analysis of trend in the given data sets. The slope of the trend can be measured through Sen’s slope estimator. Data was analyzed monthly, seasonally and yearly across the period of 65 years. The monthly rainfall data for the said period do not follow any increasing or decreasing trend. Monsoon season shows no increasing trend but here was an increasing trend in the pre-monsoon season. Hence, the actual rainfall differs from the normal trend of the rainfall. Through this analysis, it can be projected that there will be an increase in pre-monsoon rainfall than the actual monsoon season. Pre-monsoon rainfall causes cooling effect and results in drier monsoon season. This will increase the vulnerability of communities towards climate change and also effect related developmental activities.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall variability, Sen's slope

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Authors: Kiran P. Chadayamuri, Saransh Bagdi

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Increasing imbalance between energy supply and demand has made nations and companies involved in the energy sector to boost up their research and find suitable solutions. With the high rates at which conventional oil and gas resources are depleting, efficient exploration and exploitation of heavy oil could just be the answer. Heavy oil may be defined as crude oil having API gravity value of less than 20⁰. They are highly viscous, have low hydrogen to carbon ratios and are known to produce high carbon residues. They have high contents of asphaltenes, heavy metals, sulphur and nitrogen in them. Due to these properties extraction, transportation and refining of crude oil have its share of challenges. Lack of suitable technology has hindered its production in the past, but now things are going in a more positive direction. The aim of this paper is to study the various advantages of heavy oil, associated limitations and its feasibility as a fuel of the future.

Keywords: energy, heavy oil, fuel, future

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Authors: Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

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Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analysed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on ZDIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, serial correlation, Mann Kendall test

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Authors: Ahmed Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ali Najah Ahmed Al-Mahfoodh, Ahmed Al-Shafie

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In this study, genetic programming (GP) technique has been investigated in prediction of set of rainfall-runoff data. To assess the effect of input parameters on the model, the sensitivity analysis was adopted. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, three statistical indexes were used, namely; Correlation Coefficient (CC), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Correlation of Efficiency (CE). The principle aim of this study is to develop a computationally efficient and robust approach for predict of rainfall-runoff which could reduce the cost and labour for measuring these parameters. This research concentrates on the Johor River in Johor State, Malaysia.

Keywords: genetic programming, prediction, rainfall-runoff, Malaysia

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (sub-daily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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Authors: Abbas Hani, Maryam Jassasizadeh

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The concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Ni were determined from 40 soil samples collected in surface soils of Khark Island. Geostatistic methods and GIS were used to identify heavy metal sources and their spatial pattern. Principal component analysis coupled with correlation between heavy metals showed that level of mentioned heavy metal was lower than the standard level. Then the data obtained from the soil analyzing were studied for the purposes of normal distribution. The best way of interior finding for cadmium and nickel was ordinary kriging and the best way of interpolation of lead was inverse distance weighted. The result of this study help us to understand heavy metals distribution and make decision for remediation of soil pollution.

Keywords: geostatistics, ordinary kriging, heavy metals, GIS, Khark

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River

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Authors: Özge Yılmaz Gel, Berk Kılıç, Derin Dalgıç, Ela Mia Sevilla Levi, Ömer Aydın

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In this experiment, our goal was to remove heavy metals from water. Most recent studies have used removing toxic heavy elements: Cu⁺², Cr⁺³ and Fe⁺³ ions from aqueous solutions has been previously investigated with different kinds of plants like kiwi and tangerines. However, in this study, three different fruit peels were used. We tested banana, peach, and potato peels to remove heavy metal ions from their solution. The first step of the experiment was to wash the peels with distilled water and then dry the peels in an oven for 48 hrs at 80°C. Once the peels were washed and dried, 0.2 grams were weighed and added into 200 mL of %0.1 percent heavy metal solutions by mass. The mixing process was done via a magnetic stirrer. Each sample was taken in 15-minute intervals, and absorbance changes of the solutions were detected using a UV-Vis Spectrophotometer. Among the used waste products, banana peel was the most efficient one. Moreover, the amount of fruit peel, pH values of the initial heavy metal solution, and initial concentration of heavy metal solutions were investigated to determine the effect of fruit peels.

Keywords: absorbance, heavy metal, removal of heavy metals, fruit peels

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Authors: Zerihun Yohannes Amare, Belayneh Birku Geremew, Nigatu Melise Kebede, Sisaynew Getahun Amera

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In Ethiopia, agricultural production is predominantly rainfed. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driver of climate variability, which affects the agricultural production system in the country. This paper aims to study trends, variability of rainfall, and impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall amount. The study was carried out in Ethiopia's Western Amhara National Regional State, which features a variety of seasons that characterize the nation. Monthly rainfall data were collected from fifteen meteorological stations of Western Amhara. Selected El Niño and La Niña years were also extracted from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from 1986 to 2015. Once the data quality was checked and inspected, the monthly rainfall data of the selected stations were arranged in Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet and analyzed using XLSTAT software. The coefficient of variation and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test was employed to analyze trends and variability of rainfall and temperature. The long-term recorded annual rainfall data indicated that there was an increasing trend from 1986 to 2015 insignificantly. The rainfall variability was less (Coefficient of Variation, CV = 8.6%); also, the mean monthly rainfall of Western Amhara decreased during El Niño years and increased during La Niña years, especially in the rainy season (JJAS) over 30 years. This finding will be useful to suggest possible adaptation strategies and efficient use of resources during planning and implementation.

Keywords: rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, El Niño, La Niña, Western Amhara, Ethiopia

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Authors: Le Xuan Cau

Abstract:

Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval: from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index. Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index. GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain) while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.

Keywords: ArcObjects SDK for NET, basin average value of FFPI, gridded basin flash flood potential index, GBFFPI map

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Ahmed Abbas

Abstract:

Land degradation in the Lower Cheliff region leads to loss of their fertility, physical and chemical properties by secondary salinization and film forming surface or surface crust. The main factor related to runoff and soil erosion is their susceptibility to crusting caused by the impact of raindrops, which causes the reduction of the filterability of the soil. The present study aims to investigate the hydrodynamic behavior of five types of soil taken from the plain of low Cheliff under simulated rainfall by using two intensities, one moderate, and others correspond to heavy rains at low kinetic energies. Experimental results demonstrate the influence of chemical and mechanical physical properties of soils on their hydrodynamic behavior and the influence of heavy rain on the modality of the reduction in the filterability and the amount of transported sediment.

Keywords: erosion, hydrodynamic behavior, rain simulation, soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Jaturong Som-ard

Abstract:

The heavy rainfall from 3rd to 22th January 2017 had swamped much area of Ranot district in southern Thailand. Due to heavy rainfall, the district was flooded which had a lot of effects on economy and social loss. The major objective of this study is to detect flooding extent using Sentinel-1A data and identify a number of damaged buildings over there. The data were collected in two stages as pre-flooding and during flood event. Calibration, speckle filtering, geometric correction, and histogram thresholding were performed with the data, based on intensity spectral values to classify thematic maps. The maps were used to identify flooding extent using change detection, along with the buildings digitized and collected on JOSM desktop. The numbers of damaged buildings were counted within the flooding extent with respect to building data. The total flooded areas were observed as 181.45 sq.km. These areas were mostly occurred at Ban khao, Ranot, Takhria, and Phang Yang sub-districts, respectively. The Ban khao sub-district had more occurrence than the others because this area is located at lower altitude and close to Thale Noi and Thale Luang lakes than others. The numbers of damaged buildings were high in Khlong Daen (726 features), Tha Bon (645 features), and Ranot sub-district (604 features), respectively. The final flood extent map might be very useful for the plan, prevention and management of flood occurrence area. The map of building damage can be used for the quick response, recovery and mitigation to the affected areas for different concern organization.

Keywords: flooding extent, Sentinel-1A data, JOSM desktop, damaged buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 162