Search results for: fuzzy logic multi-criteria decision making

Authors: Abderrhamane Jarou, Dominique Sauter, Christophe Aubrun

Abstract:

Over the past decade, the growing demand for energy efficiency in buildings has attracted the attention of the control community. Failures in HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) systems in buildings can have a significant impact on the desired and expected energy performance of buildings and on the user's comfort as well. FTC is a recent technology area that studies the adaptation of control algorithms to faulty operating conditions of a system. The application of Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) in HVAC systems has gained attention in the last two decades. The objective is to maintain the variations in system performance due to faults within an acceptable range with respect to the desired nominal behavior. This paper considers the so-called active approach, which is based on fault and identification scheme combined with a control reconfiguration algorithm that consists in determining a new set of control parameters so that the reconfigured performance is "as close as possible, "in some sense, to the nominal performance. Thermal models of buildings and their HVAC systems are described by non-linear (usually bi-linear) equations. Most of the works carried out so far in FDI (fault diagnosis and isolation) or FTC consider a linearized model of the studied system. However, this model is only valid in a reduced range of variation. This study presents a new fault diagnosis (FD) algorithm based on a bilinear observer for the detection and accurate estimation of the magnitude of the HVAC system failure. The main contribution of the proposed FD algorithm is that instead of using specific linearized models, the algorithm inherits the structure of the actual bilinear model of the building thermal dynamics. As an immediate consequence, the algorithm is applicable to a wide range of unpredictable operating conditions, i.e., weather dynamics, outdoor air temperature, zone occupancy profile. A bilinear fault detection observer is proposed for a bilinear system with unknown inputs. The residual vector in the observer design is decoupled from the unknown inputs and, under certain conditions, is made sensitive to all faults. Sufficient conditions are given for the existence of the observer and results are given for the explicit computation of observer design matrices. Dedicated observer schemes (DOS) are considered for sensor FDI while unknown input bilinear observers are considered for actuator or system components FDI. The proposed strategy for FTC works as follows: At a first level, FDI algorithms are implemented, making it also possible to estimate the magnitude of the fault. Once the fault is detected, the fault estimation is then used to feed the second level and reconfigure the control low so that that expected performances are recovered. This paper is organized as follows. A general structure for fault-tolerant control of buildings is first presented and the building model under consideration is introduced. Then, the observer-based design for Fault Diagnosis of bilinear systems is studied. The FTC approach is developed in Section IV. Finally, a simulation example is given in Section V to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: bilinear systems, fault diagnosis, fault-tolerant control, multi-zones building

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Rafael Alexandre Dos Reis

Abstract:

Research has shown a substantial increase in the participation of Conventionally Fuelled Vehicles (CFVs) in the urban transport modal split. The reasons for this unsustainable reality are multiple, from economic interventions to individual behaviour. The development and delivery of positive incentives for the adoption of more environmental-friendly modes of transport is an emerging strategy to help in tackling the problem of excessive use of conventionally fuelled vehicles. The efficiency of this approach, like other information-based schemes, can benefit from the knowledge of their potential impacts in theoretical constructs of multiple behaviour change theories. The goal of this research is to critically analyse theories of behaviour that are relevant to transport research and the impacts of positive incentives on the theoretical determinants of behaviour, strengthening the current body of evidence about the benefits of this approach. The main method to investigate this will involve a literature review on two main topics: the current theories of behaviour that have empirical support in transport research and the past or ongoing positive incentives programs that had an impact on car use reduction. The reviewed programs of positive incentives were the following: The TravelSmart®; Spitsmijden®; Incentives for Singapore Commuters® (INSINC); COMMUTEGREENER®; MOVESMARTER®; STREETLIFE®; SUPERHUB®; SUNSET® and the EMPOWER® project. The theories analysed were the heory of Planned Behaviour (TPB); The Norm Activation Theory (NAM); Social Learning Theory (SLT); The Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour (TIB); The Goal-Setting Theory (GST) and The Value-Belief-Norm Theory (VBN). After the revisions of the theoretical constructs of each of the theories and their influence on car use, it can be concluded that positive incentives schemes impact on behaviour change in the following manners: -Changing individual’s attitudes through informational incentives; -Increasing feelings of moral obligations to reduce the use of CFVs; -Increase the perceived social pressure to engage in more sustainable mobility behaviours through the use of comparison mechanisms in social media, for example; -Increase the perceived control of behaviour through informational incentives and training incentives; -Increasing personal norms with reinforcing information; -Providing tools for self-monitoring and self-evaluation; -Providing real experiences in alternative modes to the car; -Making the observation of others’ car use reduction possible; -Informing about consequences of behaviour and emphasizing the individual’s responsibility with society and the environment; -Increasing the perception of the consequences of car use to an individual’s valued objects; -Increasing the perceived ability to reduce threats to environment; -Help establishing goals to reduce car use; - iving personalized feedback on the goal; -Increase feelings of commitment to the goal; -Reducing the perceived complexity of the use of alternatives to the car. It is notable that the emerging technique of delivering positive incentives are systematically connected to causal determinants of travel behaviour. The preliminary results of the reviewed programs evidence how positive incentives might strengthen these determinants and help in the process of behaviour change.

Keywords: positive incentives, private car use reduction, sustainable behaviour, voluntary travel behaviour change

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Julia Terlet, Thomas H. Beach, Yacine Rezgui

Abstract:

Urbanization, population growth, climate change and the current increase in water demand have made the adoption of innovative demand management strategies crucial to the water industry. Water conservation in urban areas has to be improved by encouraging consumers to adopt more sustainable habits and behaviours. This includes informing and educating them about their households’ water consumption and advising them about ways to achieve significant savings on a daily basis. This paper presents a study conducted in the context of the European FP7 WISDOM Project. By integrating innovative Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) frameworks, this project aims at achieving a change in water savings. More specifically, behavioural change will be attempted by implementing smart meters and in-home displays in a trial group of selected households within Cardiff (UK). Using this device, consumers will be able to receive feedback and information about their consumption but will also have the opportunity to compare their consumption to the consumption of other consumers and similar households. Following an initial survey, it appeared necessary to implement these in-home displays in a way that matches consumer's motivations to save water. The results demonstrated the importance of various factors influencing people’s daily water consumption. Both the relevant literature on the subject and the results of our survey therefore led us to include within the in-home device a variety of elements. It first appeared crucial to make consumers aware of the economic aspect of water conservation and especially of the significant financial savings that can be achieved by reducing their household’s water consumption on the long term. Likewise, reminding participants of the impact of their consumption on the environment by making them more aware of water scarcity issues around the world will help increasing their motivation to save water. Additionally, peer pressure and social comparisons with neighbours and other consumers, accentuated by the use of online social networks such as Facebook or Twitter, will likely encourage consumers to reduce their consumption. Participants will also be able to compare their current consumption to their past consumption and to observe the consequences of their efforts to save water through diverse graphs and charts. Finally, including a virtual water game within the display will help the whole household, children and adults, to achieve significant reductions by providing them with simple tips and advice to save water on a daily basis. Moreover, by setting daily and weekly goals for them to reach, the game will expectantly generate cooperation between family members. Members of each household will indeed be encouraged to work together to reduce their water consumption within different rooms of the house, such as the bathroom, the kitchen, or the toilets. Overall, this study will allow us to understand the elements that attract consumers the most and the features that are most commonly used by the participants. In this way, we intend to determine the main factors influencing water consumption in order to identify the measures that will most encourage water conservation in both the long and short term.

Keywords: behavioural change, ICT technologies, water consumption, water conservation

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Mehwish Jawaad

Abstract:

Purpose: The concept of GrSCM (Green Supply Chain Management) in the academic and research field is still thought to be in the development stage especially in Asian Emerging Economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute significantly to the first wave of empirical investigation on GrSCM Practices and Firm Performance measures in Pakistan. The aim of this research is to develop a more holistic approach towards investigating the impact of Green Supply Chain Management Practices (Ecodesign, Internal Environmental Management systems, Green Distribution, Green Purchasing and Cooperation with Customers) on multiple dimensions of Firm Performance Measures (Economic Performance, Environmental Performance and Operational Performance) with a mediating role of Investment Recovery and Competitiveness. This paper also serves as an initiative to identify if the relationship between Investment Recovery and Firm Performance Measures is mediated by Competitiveness. Design/ Methodology/Approach: This study is based on survey Data collected from 272, ISO (14001) Certified Textile Firms Based in Lahore, Faisalabad, and Karachi which are involved in Spinning, Dyeing, Printing or Bleaching. A Theoretical model was developed incorporating the constructs representing Green Activities and Firm Performance Measures of a firm. The data was analyzed using Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling. Senior and Mid-level managers provided the data reflecting the degree to which their organizations deal with both internal and external stakeholders to improve the environmental sustainability of their supply chain. Findings: Of the 36 proposed Hypothesis, 20 are considered valid and significant. The statistics result reveal that GrSCM practices positively impact Environmental Performance followed by Economic and Operational Performance. Investment Recovery acts as a strong mediator between Intra organizational Green activities and performance outcomes. The relationship of Reverse Logistics influencing outcomes is significantly mediated by Competitiveness. The pressure originating from customers exert significant positive influence on the firm to adopt Green Practices consequently leading to higher outcomes. Research Contribution/Originality: Underpinning the Resource dependence theory and as a first wave of investigating the impact of Green Supply chain on performance outcomes in Pakistan, this study intends to make a prominent mark in the field of research. Investment and Competitiveness together are tested as a mediator for the first time in this arena. Managerial implications: Practitioner is provided with a framework for assessing the synergistic impact of GrSCM practices on performance. Upgradation of Accreditations and Audit Programs on regular basis are the need of the hour. Making the processes leaner with the sale of excess inventories and scrap helps the firm to work more efficiently and productively.

Keywords: economic performance, environmental performance, green supply chain management practices, operational performance, sustainability, a textile sector of Pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Iliuta Cumpanasu, Veronica Oana Cumpanasu

Abstract:

This paper focuses on studying the conjunction between the new emerged theory of “Memory Effect” in Irregular Migration and Related Criminality and the notion of securitization, and its impact on border management, bringing about a scientific advancement in the field by identifying the patterns corresponding to the linkage of the two concepts, for the first time, and developing a theoretical explanation, with respect to the effects of the non-military threats on border security. Over recent years, irregular migration has experienced a significant increase worldwide. The U.N.'s refugee agency reports that the number of displaced people is at its highest ever - surpassing even post-World War II numbers when the world was struggling to come to terms with the most devastating event in history. This is also the fresh reality within the core studied coordinate, the Balkan Route of Irregular Migration, which starts from Asia and Africa and continues to Turkey, Greece, North Macedonia or Bulgaria, Serbia, and ends in Romania, where thousands of migrants find themselves in an irregular situation concerning their entry to the European Union, with its important consequences concerning the related criminality. The data from the past six years was collected by making use of semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of migration and desk research within some organisations involved in border security, pursuing the gathering of genuine insights from the aforementioned field, which was constantly addressed the existing literature and subsequently subjected to the mixed methods of analysis, including the use of the Vector Auto-Regression estimates model. Thereafter, the analysis of the data followed the processes and outcomes in Grounded Theory, and a new Substantive Theory emerged, explaining how the phenomena of irregular migration and cross-border criminality are the decisive impetus for implementing the concept of securitization in border management by using the proposed pattern. The findings of the study are therefore able to capture an area that has not yet benefitted from a comprehensive approach in the scientific community, such as the seasonality, stationarity, dynamics, predictions, or the pull and push factors in Irregular Migration, also highlighting how the recent ‘Pandemic’ interfered with border security. Therefore, the research uses an inductive revelatory theoretical approach which aims at offering a new theory in order to explain a phenomenon, triggering a practically handy contribution for the scientific community, research institutes or Academia and also usefulness to organizational practitioners in the field, among which UN, IOM, UNHCR, Frontex, Interpol, Europol, or national agencies specialized in border security. The scientific outcomes of this study were validated on June 30, 2021, when the author defended his dissertation for the European Joint Master’s in Strategic Border Management, a two years prestigious program supported by the European Commission and Frontex Agency and a Consortium of six European Universities and is currently one of the research objectives of his pending PhD research at the West University Timisoara.

Keywords: migration, border, security, memory effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Gelareh Ghaderi

Abstract:

the overall objective of this study is to develop two alternative plans of spatial and infrastructural development for the Netwerkstad Twente (Twente region) until 2040 and to assess the impacts of those two alternative plans. This region is located on the eastern border of the Netherlands, and it comprises of five municipalities. Based on the strengths and opportunities of the five municipalities of the Netwerkstad Twente, and in order develop the region internationally, strengthen the job market and retain skilled and knowledgeable young population, two alternative visions have been developed; environmental oriented vision, and economical oriented vision. Environmental oriented vision is based mostly on preserving beautiful landscapes. Twente would be recognized as an educational center, driven by green technologies and environment-friendly economy. Market-oriented vision is based on attracting and developing different economic activities in the region based on visions of the five cities of Netwerkstad Twente, in order to improve the competitiveness of the region in national and international scale. On the basis of the two developed visions and strategies for achieving the visions, land use and infrastructural development are modeled and assessed. Based on the SWOT analysis, criteria were formulated and employed in modeling the two contrasting land use visions by the year 2040. Land use modeling consists of determination of future land use demand, assessment of suitability land (Suitability analysis), and allocation of land uses on suitable land. Suitability analysis aims to determine the available supply of land for future development as well as assessing their suitability for specific type of land uses on the basis of the formulated set of criteria. Suitability analysis was operated using CommunityViz, a Planning Support System application for spatially explicit land suitability and allocation. Netwerkstad Twente has highly developed transportation infrastructure, consists of highways network, national road network, regional road network, street network, local road network, railway network and bike-path network. Based on the assumptions of speed limitations on different types of roads provided, infrastructure accessibility level of predicted land use parcels by four different transport modes is investigated. For evaluation of the two development scenarios, the Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE) method is used. The first step was to determine criteria used for evaluation of each vision. All factors were categorized as economical, ecological and social. Results of Multi-criteria Evaluation show that Environmental oriented cities scenario has higher overall score. Environment-oriented scenario has impressive scores in relation to economical and ecological factors. This is due to the fact that a large percentage of housing tends towards compact housing. Twente region has immense potential, and the success of this project will define the Eastern part of The Netherlands and create a real competitive local economy with innovations and attractive environment as its backbone.

Keywords: economical oriented vision, environmental oriented vision, infrastructure, land use, multi criteria assesment, vision

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Nitika Sharma, Yogesh Jain

Abstract:

Introduction: An efficient Information System helps in improving the service delivery as well provides the foundation for policy and regulation of other building blocks of Health System. Health care organizations require an integrated working of its various sub-systems. An efficient EMR software boosts the teamwork amongst the various sub-systems thereby resulting in improved service delivery. Although there has been a huge impetus to EMR under the Digital India initiative, it has still not been mandated in India. It is generally implemented in huge funded public or private healthcare organizations only. Objective: The study was conducted to understand the factors that lead to the successful adoption of an affordable EMR in the low level healthcare organization. It intended to understand the design of the EMR and address the solutions to the challenges faced in adoption of the EMR. Methodology: The study was conducted in a non-profit registered Healthcare organization that has been providing healthcare facilities to more than 2500 villages including certain areas that are difficult to access. The data was collected with help of field notes, in-depth interviews and participant observation. A total of 16 participants using the EMR from different departments were enrolled via purposive sampling technique. The participants included in the study were working in the organization before the implementation of the EMR system. The study was conducted in one month period from 25 June-20 July 2018. The Ethical approval was taken from the institute along with prior approval of the participants. Data analysis: A word document of more than 4000 words was obtained after transcribing and translating the answers of respondents. It was further analyzed by focused coding, a line by line review of the transcripts, underlining words, phrases or sentences that might suggest themes to do thematic narrative analysis. Results: Based on the answers the results were thematically grouped under four headings: 1. governance of organization, 2. architecture and design of the software, 3. features of the software, 4. challenges faced in adoption and the solutions to address them. It was inferred that the successful implementation was attributed to the easy and comprehensive design of the system which has facilitated not only easy data storage and retrieval but contributes in constructing a decision support system for the staff. Portability has lead to increased acceptance by physicians. The proper division of labor, increased efficiency of staff, incorporation of auto-correction features and facilitation of task shifting has lead to increased acceptance amongst the users of various departments. Geographical inhibitions, low computer literacy and high patient load were the major challenges faced during its implementation. Despite of dual efforts made both by the architects and administrators to combat these challenges, there are still certain ongoing challenges faced by organization. Conclusion: Whenever any new technology is adopted there are certain innovators, early adopters, late adopters and laggards. The same pattern was followed in adoption of this software. He challenges were overcome with joint efforts of organization administrators and users as well. Thereby this case study provides a framework of implementing similar systems in public sector of countries that are struggling for digitizing the healthcare in presence of crunch of human and financial resources.

Keywords: EMR, healthcare technology, e-health, EHR

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Suneet Jagdev, Hrishabh Amrodia, Siddharth Menon, Abhishek Singh, Mansi Shivhare

Abstract:

Delhi, the National Capital, has undergone a surge in development rate, consequently engendering an unprecedented increase in population. Over the years the city has transformed into a car-centric infrastructure with high-speed corridors, flyovers and fast lanes. A considerable section of the population is hankering to rehabilitate to the good old cycling days, in order to contribute towards a green environment as well as to maintain their physical well-being. Furthermore, an extant section of Delhi’s population relies on cycles as their primary means of commuting in the city. Delhi has the highest number of cyclists and second highest number of pedestrians in the country. However, the tumultuous problems of unregulated traffic, inadequate space on roads, adverse weather conditions stifle them to opt for cycling. Lately, the city has been facing a conglomeration of problems such as haphazard traffic movement, clogged roads, congestion, pollution, accidents, safety issues, etc. In 1957, Delhi’s cyclists accounted for 36 per cent of trips which dropped down to a mere 4 per cent in 2008. The declining rate is due to unsafe roads and lack of proper cycle lanes. Now as the 10 percent of the city has cycle tracks. There is also a lack of public recreational activities in the city. These conundrums incite the need of a covered elevated cycling bridge track to facilitate the safe and smooth cycle commutation in the city which would also serve the purpose of an alternate urban public space over the cycle bridge reducing the cost as well as the space requirement for the same, developing a user–friendly transportation and public interaction system for urban areas in the city. Based on the archival research methodologies, the following research draws information and extracts records from the data accounts of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd. as well as the Centre for Science and Environment, India. This research will predominantly focus on developing a prototype design for high speed elevated bicycle lanes based on different road typologies, which can be replicated with minor variations in similar situations, all across the major cities of our country including the proposed smart cities. Furthermore, how these cycling lanes could be utilized for the place making process accommodating cycle parking and renting spaces, public recreational spaces, food courts as well as convenient shopping facilities with appropriate optimization. How to preserve and increase the share of smooth and safe cycling commute cycling for the routine transportation of the urban community of the polluted capital which has been on a steady decline over the past few decades.

Keywords: bicycle track, prototype, road safety, urban spaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: Tiantian Min, Chuanxiang Cheng, Jin Yue

Abstract:

The growth and reproduction of microorganisms in food packaging can cause food decay and foodborne diseases, which pose a serious threat to the health of consumers and even cause serious economic losses. Active food packaging containing antibacterial bioactive compounds is a promising strategy for extending the shelf life of products and maintaining the food quality, as well as reducing the food waste. However, most active packaging can only act as slow-release effect for antimicrobials, which causes the release rate of antimicrobials not match the growth rate of microorganisms. Stimuli-responsive active packaging materials based on biopolymeric substrates and bioactive substances that respond to some biological and non-biological trigger factors provide more opportunities for fresh food preservation. The biological stimuli factors such as relative humidity, pH and enzyme existed in the exudate secreted by microorganisms have been expected to design food packaging materials. These stimuli-responsive materials achieved accurate release or delivery of bioactive substances at specific time and appropriate dose. Recently, metal-organic-frameworks (MOFs) nanoparticles become attractive carriers to enhance the efficiency of bioactive compounds or drugs. Cellulose nanofibrils have been widely applied for film substrates due to their biodegradability and biocompatibility. The abundant hydroxyl groups in cellulose can be oxidized to carboxyl groups by TEMPO, making it easier to anchoring MOFs and to be further modification. In this study, a pH and enzyme dual-responsive CAR@ZIF-8/TOCNF/PE film was fabricated by in-situ growth of ZIF-8 nanoparticles onto TEMPO-oxidized cellulose (TOCNF) film and further coated with pectin (PE) for stabilization and controlled release of carvacrol (CAR). The enzyme triggered release of CAR was achieved owing to the degradation of pectin by pectinase secreted by microorganisms. Similarly, the pH-responsive release of CAR was attributed to the unique skeleton degradation of ZIF-8, further accelerating the release of CAR from the topological structure of ZIF-8. The composite film performed excellent crystallinity and adsorb ability confirmed by X-ray diffraction and BET analysis, and the inhibition efficiency against Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and Aspergillus niger reached more than 99%. The composite film was capable of releasing CAR when exposure to dose-dependent enzyme (0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 mg/mL) and acidic condition (pH = 5). When inoculated 10 μL of Aspergillus niger spore suspension on the equatorial position of mango and raspberries, this composite film acted as packaging pads effectively inhibited the mycelial growth and prolonged the shelf life of mango and raspberries to 7 days. Such MOF-TOCNF based film provided a targeted, controlled and sustained release of bioactive compounds for long-term antibacterial activity and preservation effect, which can also avoid the cross-contamination of fruits.

Keywords: active food packaging, controlled release, fruit preservation, in-situ growth, stimuli-responsive

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Atin Adhikari, Aniruddha Mitra, Abbas Rashidi, Imaobong Ekpo, Jefferson Doehling, Alexis Pawlak, Shane Lewis, Jacob Schwartz

Abstract:

Building constructions in the US involve numerous wooden structures. Woods are routinely used in walls, framing floors, framing stairs, and making of landings in building constructions. Cross-laminated timbers are currently being used as construction materials for tall buildings. Numerous workers are involved in these timber based constructions, and wood dust is one of the most common occupational exposures for them. Wood dust is a complex substance composed of cellulose, polyoses and other substances. According to US OSHA, exposure to wood dust is associated with a variety of adverse health effects among workers, including dermatitis, allergic respiratory effects, mucosal and nonallergic respiratory effects, and cancers. The amount and size of particles released as wood dust differ according to the operations performed on woods. For example, shattering of wood during sanding operations produces finer particles than does chipping in sawing and milling industries. To our knowledge, how shattering, cutting and sanding of woods and wood slabs during new building construction release fine particles and nanoparticles are largely unknown. General belief is that the dust generated during timber cutting and sanding tasks are mostly large particles. Consequently, little attention has been given to the generated submicron ultrafine and nanoparticles and their exposure levels. These data are, however, critically important because recent laboratory studies have demonstrated cytotoxicity of nanoparticles on lung epithelial cells. The above-described knowledge gaps were addressed in this study by a novel newly developed nanoparticle monitor and conventional particle counters. This study was conducted in a large new building construction site in southern Georgia primarily during the framing of wooden side walls, inner partition walls, and landings. Exposure levels of nanoparticles (n = 10) were measured by a newly developed nanoparticle counter (TSI NanoScan SMPS Model 3910) at four different distances (5, 10, 15, and 30 m) from the work location. Other airborne particles (number of particles/m3) including PM2.5 and PM10 were monitored using a 6-channel (0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.5, 5.0 and 10 µm) particle counter at 15 m, 30 m, and 75 m distances at both upwind and downwind directions. Mass concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 (µg/m³) were measured by using a DustTrak Aerosol Monitor. Temperature and relative humidity levels were recorded. Wind velocity was measured by a hot wire anemometer. Concentration ranges of nanoparticles of 13 particle sizes were: 11.5 nm: 221 – 816/cm³; 15.4 nm: 696 – 1735/cm³; 20.5 nm: 879 – 1957/cm³; 27.4 nm: 1164 – 2903/cm³; 36.5 nm: 1138 – 2640/cm³; 48.7 nm: 938 – 1650/cm³; 64.9 nm: 759 – 1284/cm³; 86.6 nm: 705 – 1019/cm³; 115.5 nm: 494 – 1031/cm³; 154 nm: 417 – 806/cm³; 205.4 nm: 240 – 471/cm³; 273.8 nm: 45 – 92/cm³; and 365.2 nm: Keywords: wood dust, industrial hygiene, aerosol, occupational exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Fahrur Rozi, Daniswara Krisna Prabatha, Latief Zulfikar Chusaini

Abstract:

Amidst the backdrop of Pertamina Plaju Refinery, which stands as the oldest and historically less technologically advanced among Pertamina's refineries, lies a unique challenge. Originally integrating facilities established by Shell in 1904 and Stanvac (originally Standard Oil) in 1926, the primary challenge at Plaju Refinery does not solely revolve around complexity; instead, it lies in ensuring reliability, considering its operational history of over a century. After centuries of existence, Plaju Refinery has never undergone a comprehensive major turnaround encompassing all its units. The usual practice involves partial turnarounds that are sequentially conducted across its primary, secondary, and tertiary units (utilities and offsite). However, a significant shift is on the horizon. In the Q-IV of 2023, the refinery embarks on its first-ever major turnaround since its establishment. This decision was driven by the alignment of maintenance timelines across various units. Plaju Refinery's major turnaround was scheduled for October-November 2023, spanning 45 calendar days, with the objective of enhancing the operational reliability of all refinery units. The extensive job list for this turnaround encompasses 1583 tasks across 18 units/areas, involving approximately 9000 contracted workers. In this context, the Strategy of Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS) execution emerges as a pivotal tool to optimize time efficiency and ensure safety. A Hazard Effect Management Process (HEMP) has been employed to assess the risk ratings of each task within the turnaround. Out of the tasks assessed, 22 are deemed high-risk and necessitate mitigation. The SIMOPS approach serves as a preventive measure against potential incidents. It is noteworthy that every turnaround period at Pertamina Plaju Refinery involves SIMOPS-related tasks. In this context, enhancing the implementation strategy of "Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS)" becomes imperative to minimize the occurrence of incidents. At least four improvements have been introduced in the enhancement process for the major turnaround at Refinery Plaju. The first improvement involves conducting systematic risk assessment and potential hazard mitigation studies for SIMOPS tasks before task execution, as opposed to the previous on-site approach. The second improvement includes the completion of SIMOPS Job Mitigation and Work Matrices Sheets, which was often neglected in the past. The third improvement emphasizes comprehensive awareness to workers/contractors regarding potential hazards and mitigation strategies for SIMOPS tasks before and during the major turnaround. The final improvement is the introduction of a daily program for inspecting and observing work in progress for SIMOPS tasks. Prior to these improvements, there was no established program for monitoring ongoing activities related to SIMOPS tasks during the turnaround. This study elucidates the steps taken to enhance SIMOPS within Pertamina, drawing from the experiences of Plaju Refinery as a guide. A real actual case study will be provided from our experience in the operational unit. In conclusion, these efforts are essential for the success of the first-ever major turnaround at Plaju Refinery, with the SIMOPS strategy serving as a central component. Based on these experiences, enhancements have been made to Pertamina's official Internal Guidelines for Executing SIMOPS Risk Mitigation, benefiting all Pertamina units.

Keywords: process safety management, turn around, oil refinery, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 37

Authors: Anja I. Petrov, Milica B. Veljković, Marija M. Ćorović, Ana D. Milivojević, Milica B. Simović, Katarina M. Banjanac, Dejan I. Bezbradica

Abstract:

One of the fundamental requirements for overall human well-being is a stable and balanced microbiome. Aside from the microorganisms that reside within the body, a large number of microorganisms, especially bacteria, swarming the human skin is in homeostasis with the host and represents a skin microbiota. Even though the immune system of the skin is capable of distinguishing between commensal and potentially harmful transient bacteria, the cutaneous microbial balance can be disrupted under certain circumstances. In that case, a reduction in the skin microbiota diversity, as well as changes in metabolic activity, results in dermal infections and inflammation. Probiotics and prebiotics have the potential to play a significant role in the treatment of these skin disorders. The most common resident bacteria found on the skin, Staphylococcus epidermidis, can act as a potential skin probiotic, contributing to the protection of healthy skin from pathogen colonization, such as Staphylococcus aureus, which is related to atopic dermatitis exacerbation. However, as it is difficult to meet regulations in cosmetic products, another therapy approach could be topical prebiotic supplementation of the skin microbiota. In recent research, polyphenols are attracting scientists' interest as biomolecules with possible prebiotic effects on the skin microbiota. This research aimed to determine how herbal extracts rich in different polyphenolic compounds (lemon balm, St. John's wort, coltsfoot, pine needle, and yarrow) affected the growth of S. epidermidis and S. aureus. The first part of the study involved screening plants to determine if they could be regarded as probable candidates to be skin prebiotics. The effect of each plant on bacterial growth was examined by supplementing the nutrient medium with their extracts and comparing it with control samples (without extract). The results obtained after 24 h of incubation showed that all tested extracts influenced the growth of the examined bacteria to some extent. Since lemon balm and St. John's wort extracts displayed bactericidal activity against S. epidermidis, whereas coltsfoot inhibited both bacteria equally, they were not explored further. On the other hand, pine needles and yarrow extract led to an increase in S. epidermidis/S. aureus ratio, making them prospective candidates to be used as skin prebiotics. By examining the prebiotic effect of two extracts at different concentrations, it was revealed that, in the case of yarrow, 0.1% of extract dry matter in the fermentation medium was optimal, while for the pine needle extract, a concentration of 0.05% was preferred, since it selectively stimulated S. epidermidis growth and inhibited S. aureus proliferation. Additionally, the total polyphenols and flavonoid content of the two extracts were determined, revealing different concentrations and polyphenol profiles. Since yarrow and pine extracts affected the growth of skin bacteria in a dose-dependent manner, by carefully selecting the quantities of these extracts, and thus polyphenols content, it is possible to achieve desirable alterations of skin microbiota composition, which may be suitable for the treatment of atopic dermatitis.

Keywords: herbal extracts, polyphenols, skin microbiota, skin prebiotics

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Mario Tauzene Afonso Matangue, Ivan Andres Sanchez Ortiz

Abstract:

The Metropolitan area of Maputo (Mozambique Capital City) is located in semi-arid zone (800 mm annual rainfall) with 1101170 million inhabitants. On the west side, there are the flatlands of Infulene where the Mulauze River flows towards to the Indian Ocean, receiving at this site, the storm water contaminated with sanitary sewage from Maputo, transported through a concrete open channel. In Infulene, local communities grow salads crops such as tomato, onion, garlic, lettuce, and cabbage, which are then commercialized and consumed in several markets in Maputo City. Lettuce is the most daily consumed salad crop in different meals, generally in fast-foods, breakfasts, lunches, and dinners. However, the risk of infection by several pathogens due to the consumption of lettuce, using the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) tools, is still unknown since there are few studies or publications concerning to this matter in Mozambique. This work is aimed at determining the annual risk arising from the consumption of lettuce grown in Infulene valley, in Maputo, using QMRA tools. The exposure model was constructed upon the volume of contaminated water remaining in the lettuce leaves, the empirical relations between the number of pathogens and the indicator of microorganisms (E. coli), the consumption of lettuce (g) and reduction of pathogens (days). The reference pathogens were Vibrio cholerae, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Ascaris. The water quality samples (E. coli) were collected in the storm water channel from January 2016 to December 2018, comprising 65 samples, and the urban lettuce consumption data were collected through inquiry in Maputo Metropolis covering 350 persons. A non-parametric bootstrap was performed involving 10,000 iterations over the collected dataset, namely, water quality (E. coli) and lettuce consumption. The dose-response models were: Exponential for Cryptosporidium, Kummer Confluent hypergeomtric function (1F1) for Vibrio and Ascaris Gaussian hypergeometric function (2F1-(a,b;c;z) for norovirus. The annual infection risk estimates were performed using R 3.6.0 (CoreTeam) software by Monte Carlo (Latin hypercubes), a sampling technique involving 10,000 iterations. The annual infection risks values expressed by Median and the 95th percentile, per person per year (pppy) arising from the consumption of lettuce are as follows: Vibrio cholerae (1.00, 1.00), Cryptosporidium (3.91x10⁻³, 9.72x 10⁻³), nororvirus (5.22x10⁻¹, 9.99x10⁻¹) and Ascaris (2.59x10⁻¹, 9.65x10⁻¹). Thus, the consumption of the lettuce would result in greater risks than the tolerable levels ( < 10⁻³ pppy or 10⁻⁶ DALY) for all pathogens, and the Vibrio cholerae is the most virulent pathogens, according to the hit-single models followed by the Ascaris lumbricoides and norovirus. The sensitivity analysis carried out in this work pointed out that in the whole QMRA, the most important input variable was the reduction of pathogens (Spearman rank value was 0.69) between harvest and consumption followed by water quality (Spearman rank value was 0.69). The decision-makers (Mozambique Government) must strengthen the prevention measures related to pathogens reduction in lettuce (i.e., washing) and engage in wastewater treatment engineering.

Keywords: annual infections risk, lettuce, non-parametric bootstrapping, quantitative microbial risk assessment tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Alexandra Cheira

Abstract:

Cultural appropriation has been theorised as a form of colonialism in which members of a dominant culture reduce cultural elements that are deeply meaningful to a minority culture to the category of the “exotic other” since they do not experience the oppression and discriminations faced by members of the minority culture. Yet, in the particular case of literature, writers such as Lionel Shriver and Bernardine Evaristo have argued that authors from a cultural majority have a right to write in the voice of someone from a cultural minority, hence attacking the idea that this is a form of cultural appropriation. By definition, Shriver and Evaristo claim, writers are supposed to write beyond their own culture, gender, class, and/ or race. In this light, this paper discusses the limits of cultural appropriation vis-à-vis the ethics of narrative empathy by addressing the mixed critical reception of Kathryn Stockett’s The Help (2009) and Jeanine Cummins’s American Dirt (2020). In fact, both novels were acclaimed as global eye-openers regarding the struggles of respectively South American migrants and African American maids. At the same time, both novelists have been accused of cultural appropriation by telling a story that is not theirs to tell, given the fact that they are white women telling these stories in what critics have argued is really an American voice telling a story to American readers.These claims will be investigated within the framework of Edward Said’s foundational examination of Orientalism in the field of postcolonial studies as a Western style for authoritatively restructuring the Orient. This means that Orientalist stereotypes regarding Eastern cultures have implicitly validated colonial and imperial pursuits, in the specific context of literary representations of African American and Mexican cultures by white writers. At the same time, the conflicted reception of American Dirt and The Help will be examined within the critical framework of narrative empathy as theorised by Suzanne Keen. Hence, there will be a particular focus on the way a reader’s heated perception that the author’s perspective is purely dishonest can result from a friction between an author’s intention and a reader’s experience of narrative empathy, while a shared sense of empathy between authors and readers can be a rousing momentum to move beyond literary response to social action.Finally, in order to assess that “the key question should not be who can write about whom, but how the writer tells the story”, the recent controversy surrounding Dutch author Marieke Lucas Rijneveld’s decision to resign the translation of American poet Amanda Gorman’s work into Dutch will be duly investigated. In fact, Rijneveld stepped out after journalist and activist Janice Deul criticised Dutch publisher Meulenhoff for choosing a translator who was not also Black, despite the fact that 22-year-old Gorman had selected the 29-year-old Rijneveld herself, as a fellow young writer who had likewise come to fame early on in life. In this light, the critical argument that the controversial reception of The Help reveals as much about US race relations in the early twenty-first century as about the complex literary transactions between individual readers and the novel itself will also be discussed in the extended context of American Dirt and white author Marieke Rijneveld’s withdrawal from the projected translation of Black poet Amanda Gorman.

Keywords: cultural appropriation, cultural stereotypes, narrative empathy, race relations

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Jeronimo Cox, Tomonari Furukawa

Abstract:

Magnetometers have become more popular in inertial measurement units (IMU) for their ability to correct estimations using the earth's magnetic field. Accelerometer and gyroscope-based packages fail with dead-reckoning errors accumulated over time. Localization in robotic applications with magnetometer-inclusive IMUs has become popular as a way to track the odometry of slower-speed robots. With high-speed motions, the accumulated error increases over smaller periods of time, making them difficult to track with IMU. Tracking a high-speed motion is especially difficult with limited observability. Visual obstruction of motion leaves motion-tracking cameras unusable. When motions are too dynamic for estimation techniques reliant on the observability of the gravity vector, the use of magnetometers is further justified. As available magnetometer calibration methods are limited with the assumption that background magnetic fields are uniform, estimation in nonuniform magnetic fields is problematic. Hard iron distortion is a distortion of the magnetic field by other objects that produce magnetic fields. This kind of distortion is often observed as the offset from the origin of the center of data points when a magnetometer is rotated. The magnitude of hard iron distortion is dependent on proximity to distortion sources. Soft iron distortion is more related to the scaling of the axes of magnetometer sensors. Hard iron distortion is more of a contributor to the error of attitude estimation with magnetometers. Indoor environments or spaces inside ferrite-based structures, such as building reinforcements or a vehicle, often cause distortions with proximity. As positions correlate to areas of distortion, methods of magnetometer localization include the production of spatial mapping of magnetic field and collection of distortion signatures to better aid location tracking. The goal of this paper is to compare magnetometer methods that don't need pre-productions of magnetic field maps. Mapping the magnetic field in some spaces can be costly and inefficient. Dynamic measurement fusion is used to track the motion of a multi-link system with us. Conventional calibration by data collection of rotation at a static point, real-time estimation of calibration parameters each time step, and using two magnetometers for determining local hard iron distortion are compared to confirm the robustness and accuracy of each technique. With opposite-facing magnetometers, hard iron distortion can be accounted for regardless of position, Rather than assuming that hard iron distortion is constant regardless of positional change. The motion measured is a repeatable planar motion of a two-link system connected by revolute joints. The links are translated on a moving base to impulse rotation of the links. Equipping the joints with absolute encoders and recording the motion with cameras to enable ground truth comparison to each of the magnetometer methods. While the two-magnetometer method accounts for local hard iron distortion, the method fails where the magnetic field direction in space is inconsistent.

Keywords: motion tracking, sensor fusion, magnetometer, state estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Ayon Mukherjee

Abstract:

Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs use the available responses to skew the treatment allocation in a clinical trial in towards treatment found at an interim stage to be best for a given patient's covariate profile. Extensive research has been done on various aspects of CARA designs with the patient responses assumed to follow a parametric model. However, ranges of application for such designs are limited in real-life clinical trials where the responses infrequently fit a certain parametric form. On the other hand, robust estimates for the covariate-adjusted treatment effects are obtained from the parametric assumption. To balance these two requirements, designs are developed which are free from distributional assumptions about the survival responses, relying only on the assumption of proportional hazards for the two treatment arms. The proposed designs are developed by deriving two types of optimum allocation designs, and also by using a distribution function to link the past allocation, covariate and response histories to the present allocation. The optimal designs are based on biased coin procedures, with a bias towards the better treatment arm. These are the doubly-adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) and the efficient randomized adaptive design (ERADE). The treatment allocation proportions for these designs converge to the expected target values, which are functions of the Cox regression coefficients that are estimated sequentially. These expected target values are derived based on constrained optimization problems and are updated as information accrues with sequential arrival of patients. The design based on the link function is derived using the distribution function of a probit model whose parameters are adjusted based on the covariate profile of the incoming patient. To apply such designs, the treatment allocation probabilities are sequentially modified based on the treatment allocation history, response history, previous patients’ covariates and also the covariates of the incoming patient. Given these information, an expression is obtained for the conditional probability of a patient allocation to a treatment arm. Based on simulation studies, it is found that the ERADE is preferable to the DBCD when the main aim is to minimize the variance of the observed allocation proportion and to maximize the power of the Wald test for a treatment difference. However, the former procedure being discrete tends to be slower in converging towards the expected target allocation proportion. The link function based design achieves the highest skewness of patient allocation to the best treatment arm and thus ethically is the best design. Other comparative merits of the proposed designs have been highlighted and their preferred areas of application are discussed. It is concluded that the proposed CARA designs can be considered as suitable alternatives to the traditional balanced randomization designs in survival trials in terms of the power of the Wald test, provided that response data are available during the recruitment phase of the trial to enable adaptations to the designs. Moreover, the proposed designs enable more patients to get treated with the better treatment during the trial thus making the designs more ethically attractive to the patients. An existing clinical trial has been redesigned using these methods.

Keywords: censored response, Cox regression, efficiency, ethics, optimal allocation, power, variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: C. Treadgold, S. Sivaraman

Abstract:

The Starlight Children's Foundation (Starlight) is an Australian non-profit organisation that delivers programs, in partnership with health professionals, to support children, adolescents, and their families who are living with a serious illness. While supporting children and adolescents with life-limiting conditions has always been a feature of Starlight's work, providing a dedicated program, specifically targeting and meeting the needs of the paediatric palliative population, is a recent area of focus. Recognising the challenges in providing children’s palliative services, Starlight initiated a research and development project to better understand and meet the needs of this group. The aim was to create a program which enhances the wellbeing of children, adolescents, and their families receiving paediatric palliative care in their community through the provision of on-going, tailored, positive experiences or 'moments'. This paper will present the results of the formative evaluation of this unique program, highlighting the development processes and outcomes of the pilot. The pilot was designed using an innovation methodology, which included a number of research components. There was a strong belief that it needed to be delivered in partnership with a dedicated palliative care team, helping to ensure the best interests of the family were always represented. This resulted in Starlight collaborating with both the Victorian Paediatric Palliative Care Program (VPPCP) at the Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, and the Sydney Children's Hospital Network (SCHN) to pilot the 'Moments' program. As experts in 'positive disruption', with a long history of collaborating with health professionals, Starlight was well placed to deliver a program which helps children, adolescents, and their families to experience moments of joy, connection and achieve their own sense of accomplishment. Building on Starlight’s evidence-based approach and experience in creative service delivery, the program aims to use the power of 'positive disruption' to brighten the lives of this group and create important memories. The clinical and Starlight team members collaborate to ensure that the child and family are at the centre of the program. The design of each experience is specific to their needs and ensures the creation of positive memories and family connection. It aims for each moment to enhance quality of life. The partnership with the VPPCP and SCHN has allowed the program to reach families across metropolitan and regional locations. In late 2019 a formative evaluation of the pilot was conducted utilising both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to document both the delivery and outcomes of the program. Central to the evaluation was the interviews conducted with both clinical teams and families in order to gain a comprehensive understanding of the impact of and satisfaction with the program. The findings, which will be shared in this presentation, provide practical insight into the delivery of the program, the key elements for its success with families, and areas which could benefit from additional research and focus. It will use stories and case studies from the pilot to highlight the impact of the program and discuss what opportunities, challenges, and learnings emerged.

Keywords: children, families, memory making, pediatric palliative care, support

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Nien-Te Kuo, Yi-Sung Cheng, Kuo-Chien Chang

Abstract:

Cultural festival tourism is now seen by many as an opportunity to facilitate community development because it has significant influences on the economic, social, cultural, and political aspects of local communities. The potential for tourist attraction has been recognized as a useful tool to strengthen local economies from governments. However, most community festivals in Taiwan are short-lived, often only lasting for a few years or occasionally not making it past a one-off event. Researchers suggested that most governments and other stakeholders do not recognize the importance of building a partnership with residents when developing community tourism. Thus, the sustainable community tourism development still remains a key issue in the existing literature. The success of community tourism is related to the attitudes and lifestyles of local residents. In order to maintain sustainable tourism, residents need to be seen as development partners. Residents’ support intention for tourism development not only helps to increase awareness of local culture, history, the natural environment, and infrastructure, but also improves the interactive relationship between the host community and tourists. Furthermore, researchers have identified the social capital theory as the core of sustainable community tourism development. The social capital of residents has been seen as a good way to solve issues of tourism governance, forecast the participation behavior and improve support intention of residents. In addition, previous studies have pointed out the role of community participation and place identity in increasing resident support intention for tourism development. A lack of place identity is one of the main reasons that community tourism has become a mere formality and is not sustainable. It refers to how much residents participate during tourism development and is mainly influenced by individual interest. Scholars believed that the place identity of residents is the soul of community festivals. It shows the community spirit to visitors and has significant impacts on tourism benefits and support intention of residents in community tourism development. Although the importance of community participation and place identity have been confirmed by both governmental and non-governmental organizations, real-life execution still needs to be improved. This study aimed to use social capital theory to investigate the social structure between community residents, participation levels in festival tourism, degrees of place identity, and resident support intention for future community tourism development, and the causal relationship that these factors have with cultural festival tourism. A quantitative research approach was employed to examine the proposed model. Structural equation model was used to test and verify the proposed hypotheses. This was a case study of the Kaohsiung Zuoying Wannian Folklore Festival. The festival was located in the Zuoying District of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The target population of this study was residents who attended the festival. The results reveal significant correlations among social capital, community participation, place identity and support intention. The results also confirm that impacts of social capital on support intention were significantly mediated by community participation and place identity. Practical suggestions were provided for tourism operators and policy makers. This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan, Republic of China, under the grant MOST-105-2410-H-328-013.

Keywords: community participation, place identity, social capital, support intention

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Michael Josef Schwerer

Abstract:

Background: Analyzing any aircraft accident is mandatory based on the regulations of the International Civil Aviation Organization and the respective country’s criminal prosecution authorities. Legal medicine investigations are unavoidable when fatalities involve the flight crew or when doubts arise concerning the pilot’s aeromedical health status before the event. As a result of frequently tremendous blunt and sharp force trauma along with the impact of the aircraft to the ground, consecutive blast or fire exposition of the occupants or putrefaction of the dead bodies in cases of delayed recovery, relevant findings can be masked or destroyed and therefor being inaccessible in standard pathology practice comprising just forensic autopsy and histopathology. Such cases are of considerable risk of remaining unsolved without legal consequences for those responsible. Further, no lessons can be drawn from these scenarios to improve flight safety and prevent future mishaps. Aims and Methods: To learn from previously unsolved aircraft accidents, re-evaluations of the investigation files and modern molecular pathology studies were performed. Genetic testing involved predominantly PCR-based analysis of gene regulation, studying DNA promotor methylations, RNA transcription and posttranscriptional regulation. In addition, the presence or absence of infective agents, particularly DNA- and RNA-viruses, was studied. Technical adjustments of molecular genetic procedures when working with archived sample material were necessary. Standards for the proper interpretation of the respective findings had to be settled. Results and Discussion: Additional molecular genetic testing significantly contributes to the quality of forensic pathology assessment in aviation mishaps. Previously undetected cardiotropic viruses potentially explain e.g., a pilot’s sudden incapacitation resulting from cardiac failure or myocardial arrhythmia. In contrast, negative results for infective agents participate in ruling out concerns about an accident pilot’s fitness to fly and the aeromedical examiner’s precedent decision to issue him or her an aeromedical certificate. Care must be taken in the interpretation of genetic testing for pre-existing diseases such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy or ischemic heart disease. Molecular markers such as mRNAs or miRNAs, which can establish these diagnoses in clinical patients, might be misleading in-flight crew members because of adaptive changes in their tissues resulting from repeated mild hypoxia during flight, for instance. Military pilots especially demonstrate significant physiological adjustments to their somatic burdens in flight, such as cardiocirculatory stress and air combat maneuvers. Their non-pathogenic alterations in gene regulation and expression will likely be misinterpreted for genuine disease by inexperienced investigators. Conclusions: The growing influence of molecular pathology on legal medicine practice has found its way into aircraft accident investigation. As appropriate quality standards for laboratory work and data interpretation are provided, forensic genetic testing supports the medico-legal analysis of aviation mishaps and potentially reduces the number of unsolved events in the future.

Keywords: aviation medicine, aircraft accident investigation, forensic pathology, molecular pathology

Procedia PDF Downloads 18

Authors: Sarah Lister, Pauline Palmer

Abstract:

Research findings presented within this paper form part of a larger scale collaboration between academics at Manchester Metropolitan University and a technology company. The overarching aims of this project focus on developing a series of game-based resources to promote the teaching of aspects of mathematics through a second language (L2) in primary schools. This study explores the potential of game-based learning (GBL) as a dynamic way to engage and motivate learners, making learning fun and purposeful. The research examines the capacity of GBL resources to provide a meaningful and purposeful context for CLIL. GBL is a powerful learning environment and acts as an effective vehicle to promote the learning of mathematics through an L2. The fun element of GBL can minimise stress and anxiety associated with mathematics and L2 learning that can create barriers. GBL provides one of the few safe domains where it is acceptable for learners to fail. Games can provide a life-enhancing experience for learners, revolutionizing the routinized ways of learning through fusing learning and play. This study argues that playing games requires learners to think creatively to solve mathematical problems, using the L2 in order to progress, which can be associated with the development of higher-order thinking skills and independent learning. GBL requires learners to engage appropriate cognitive processes with increased speed of processing, sensitivity to environmental inputs, or flexibility in allocating cognitive and perceptual resources. At surface level, GBL resources provide opportunities for learners to learn to do things. Games that fuse subject content and appropriate learning objectives have the potential to make learning academic subjects more learner-centered, promote learner autonomy, easier, more enjoyable, more stimulating and engaging and therefore, more effective. Data includes observations of the children playing the games and follow up group interviews. Given that learning as a cognitive event cannot be directly observed or measured. A Cognitive Discourse Functions (CDF) construct was used to frame the research, to map the development of learners’ conceptual understanding in an L2 context and as a framework to observe the discursive interactions that occur learner to learner and between learner and teacher. Cognitively, the children were required to engage with mathematical content, concepts and language to make decisions quickly, to engage with the gameplay to reason, solve and overcome problems and learn through experimentation. The visual elements of the games supported the learning of new concepts. Children recognised the value of the games to consolidate their mathematical thinking and develop their understanding of new ideas. The games afforded them time to think and reflect. The teachers affirmed that the games provided meaningful opportunities for the learners to practise the language. The findings of this research support the view that using the game-based resources supported children’s grasp of mathematical ideas and their confidence and ability to use the L2. Engaging with the content and language through the games led to deeper learning.

Keywords: CLIL, gaming, language, mathematics

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Zeina Nasr, Bashar Merheb

Abstract:

The honey bee is a social insect that had driven the human interest much more than any other organism. Beekeeping practices dated the appearance of Man on earth and now it provides a hobby or a secondary work that contributes to the family revenue and requires a little time engagement and money investment. Honey production is not the only contribution of honey bees to the economy, since honey bees play an important role in the pollination. Bee keeping in Lebanon is an important part of the agricultural economy. However, a growing concern about bees is spreading globally, due to an accelerated decline of bees colonies. This raises the alert to preserve and protect local bee strains against uncontrolled introduction of foreign strains and invasive parasitic species. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers are commonly used in studying genetic variation in the Apis mellifera species. The DraI-COI-COII test is based on the analysis of the intergenic region between the two genes COI and COII. The different honey bee strains differ in the presence or absence of the p sequence and the number of Q sequences present. A. m. syriaca belonging to the lineage Z, is the native honey bee subspecies in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Palestine. A. m. syriaca is known for its high defensiveness, even though it has many important advantages. However, commercial breeder strains, such as the Italian (A. m. ligustica), and Carniolan (A. m. carnica) strains, have been introduced by beekeepers and regularly used for honey production. This raises worries about the disappearance of the local subspecies. It is obvious that identifying A. m. syriaca colonies and protecting them against uncontrolled mating with other bee strains is a crucial step to protect and improve the original local strain. This study aims to reveal the existing sub-species of honey bee in Akkar – Lebanon and to assess the influence of introgression on the hybridization of the local strain. This will help to identify areas of pure A.m. syriaca population over this district to be considered in choosing syriaca reserves. We collected samples of bees from different regions of Akkar district in order to perform mtDNA analysis. We determined the restriction fragments length of the intergenic region COI-COII, using the restriction enzyme DraI. The results showed both the C and the Z lineages. Four restriction patterns were identified among the restriction maps of the studied samples. The most abundant mitochondrial lineage is the Z lineage constituting about 60% of the identified samples. Al-Dreib region reported the lowest introgression with foreign mtDNA of 21% making it the most suitable area for a genetic reserve of syriaca in Akkar based on its lowest introgression and suitable environment in addition to the attitude of local beekeepers to conserve the local strain. Finally, this study is the first step in constructing conservation programs for the preservation of the local strain and should be generalized to the whole Lebanese population, consistent with the effort done in neighboring countries.

Keywords: Akkar Lebanon, Apis millefera syriaca, DraI-COI-COII test, mitochondrial DNA

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Elaine Crable, Amit Sen

Abstract:

Short-term study abroad programs have become a mainstay of MBA programs. The benefits of international business experiences, along with its exposure to global cultures, are well documented. However, developing a rewarding study, abroad program at the graduate level can be challenging for Faculty, especially when devising such a program for a group of part-time MBA students who come with a wide range of experiences and demographic characteristics. Each student has individual expectations for the study abroad experience. This study provides suggestions and considerations for Faculty that are planning to design a short-term study abroad program, especially for part-time MBA students. Insights are based on a recent experience leading a group of twenty-one students on a ten-day program to Morocco. The trip was designed and facilitated by two faculty members and a local Moroccan facilitator. This experience led to a number of insights and recommendations. First, the choice of location is critical. The choice of Morocco was very deliberate, owing to its multi-faceted cultural landscape and international business interest. It is an Islamic State with close ties to Europe both culturally and geographically and Morocco is a multi-lingual country with some combination of three languages spoken by most – English, Arabic, and French. Second, collaboration with a local ‘academic’ partner allowed the level of instruction to be both rigorous and significantly more engaging. Third, allowing students to participate in the planning of the trip enabled the trip participants to collaborate, negotiate, and share their own experiences and strengths. The pre-trip engagement was structured by creating four sub-groups, each responsible for an assigned city. Each student sub-group had to provide a historical background of the assigned city, plan the itinerary including sites to visit, cuisine to experience, industries to explore, markets to visit, plus provide a budget for that city’s expenses. The pre-planning segment of the course was critical for the success of the program as students were able to contribute to the design of the program through collaboration and negotiation with their peers. Fourth, each student sub-group was assigned industry to study within Morocco. The student sub-group prepared a presentation and a group paper with their analysis of the chosen industries. The pre-planning activities created strong bonds among the trip participants, which was evident when faced with on-ground challenges, especially when it was necessary to quickly evacuate due to a surprise USA COVID evacuation notice. The entire group supported each other when quickly making their way back to the United States. Unfortunately, the trip was cut short by two days due to this emergency exit, but the feedback regarding the program was very positive all around. While the program design put pressure on the Faculty leads regarding planning and coordination upfront, the outcome in terms of student engagement, student learning, collaboration and negotiation were all favorable and worth the effort. Finally, an added value, the cost of the program for the student was significantly lower compared to running a program with a professional provider.

Keywords: business education, experiential learning, international education, study abroad

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Shelley Jones

Abstract:

Assumptions abound that education for girls will, as a matter of course, lead to their economic empowerment as women; yet. little is known about the ways in which schooling for girls, who traditionally/historically would not have had opportunities for post-primary, or perhaps even primary education – such as the participants in this study based in rural Uganda - in reality, impacts their economic situations. There is a need forlongitudinal studies in which women share experiences, understandings, and reflections of their lives that can inform our knowledge of this. In response, this paper reports on stage four of a longitudinal case study (2004-2018) focused on education and empowerment for girls and women in rural Uganda, in which 13 of the 15 participants from the original study participated. This paper understands empowerment as not simply increased opportunities (e.g., employment) but also real gains in power, freedoms that enable agentive action, and authentic and viable choices/alternatives that offer ‘exit options’ from unsatisfactory situations. As with the other stages, this study used a critical, postmodernist, global feminist ethnographic methodology, multimodal and qualitative data collection. Participants participated in interviews, focus group discussions, and a two-day workshop, which explored their understandings of how/if they understood post-primary education to have contributed to their economic empowerment. A constructivist grounded theory approach was used for data analysis to capture major themes. Findings indicate that although all participants believe that post-primary education provided them with economic opportunities they would not have had otherwise, the parameters of their economic empowerment were severely constrained by historic and extant sociocultural, economic, political, and institutional structures that continue to disempower girls and women, as well as additional financial responsibilities that they assumed to support others. Even though the participants had post-primary education, and they were able to obtain employment or operate their own businesses that they would not likely have been able to do without post-primary education, the majority of the participants’ incomes were not sufficient to elevate them financially above the extreme poverty level, especially as many were single mothers and the sole income earners in their households. Furthermore, most deemed their working conditions unsatisfactory and their positions precarious; they also experienced sexual harassment and abuse in the labour force. Additionally, employment for the participants resulted in a double work burden: long days at work, surrounded by many hours of domestic work at home (which, even if they had spousal partners, still fell almost exclusively to women). In conclusion, although the participants seem to have experienced some increase in economic empowerment, largely due to skills, knowledge, and qualifications gained at the post-primary level, numerous barriers prevented them from maximizing their capabilities and making significant gains in empowerment. There is need, in addition to providing education (primary, secondary, and tertiary) to girls, to address systemic gender inequalities that mitigate against women’s empowerment, as well as opportunities and freedom for women to come together and demand fair pay, reasonable working conditions, and benefits, freedom from gender-based harassment and assault in the workplace, as well as advocate for equal distribution of domestic work as a cultural change.

Keywords: girls' post-primary education, women's empowerment, uganda, employment

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Charlotte K. Lee, Henrique R. N. Aguiar, Ralph Smith, James Baldock, Sam Botchey

Abstract:

Background: Femoral neck stress fractures (FNSF) are uncommon, making up 1 to 7.2% of stress fractures in healthy subjects. FNSFs are prevalent in young women, military recruits, endurance athletes, and individuals with energy deficiency syndrome or female athlete triad. Presentation is often non-specific and is often misdiagnosed following the initial examination. There is limited research addressing the return–to–activity time after FNSF. Previous studies have demonstrated prognostic time predictions based on various imaging techniques. Here, (1) OxSport clinic FNSF practice standards are retrospectively reviewed, (2) FNSF cohort demographics are examined, (3) Regression models were used to predict return–to–activity prognosis and consequently determine bone stress risk factors. Methods: Patients with a diagnosis of FNSF attending Oxsport clinic between 01/06/2020 and 01/01/2020 were selected from the Rheumatology Assessment Database Innovation in Oxford (RhADiOn) and OxSport Stress Fracture Database (n = 14). (1) Clinical practice was audited against five criteria based on local and National Institute for Health Care Excellence guidance, with a 100% standard. (2) Demographics of the FNSF cohort were examined with Student’s T-Test. (3) Lastly, linear regression and Random Forest regression models were used on this patient cohort to predict return–to–activity time. Consequently, an analysis of feature importance was conducted after fitting each model. Results: OxSport clinical practice met standard (100%) in 3/5 criteria. The criteria not met were patient waiting times and documentation of all bone stress risk factors. Importantly, analysis of patient demographics showed that of the population with complete bone stress risk factor assessments, 53% were positive for modifiable bone stress risk factors. Lastly, linear regression analysis was utilized to identify demographic factors that predicted return–to–activity time [R2 = 79.172%; average error 0.226]. This analysis identified four key variables that predicted return-to-activity time: vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, femoral neck DEXA T value, and history of an eating disorder/disordered eating. Furthermore, random forest regression models were employed for this task [R2 = 97.805%; average error 0.024]. Analysis of the importance of each feature again identified a set of 4 variables, 3 of which matched with the linear regression analysis (vitamin D level, total hip DEXA T value, and femoral neck DEXA T value) and the fourth: age. Conclusion: OxSport clinical practice could be improved by more comprehensively evaluating bone stress risk factors. The importance of this evaluation is demonstrated by the population found positive for these risk factors. Using this cohort, potential bone stress risk factors that significantly impacted return-to-activity prognosis were predicted using regression models.

Keywords: eating disorder, bone stress risk factor, femoral neck stress fracture, vitamin D

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Yi Wang, Greg Hearn, Terry Flew

Abstract:

In order to understand how cultural innovation occurs, this paper explores the interaction in Shenzhen of China between universities, creative industries, and government in creative economic using the Triple Helix framework. During the past two decades, Triple Helix has been recognized as a new theory of innovation to inform and guide policy-making in national and regional development. Universities and governments around the world, especially in developing countries, have taken actions to strengthen connections with creative industries to develop regional economies. To date research based on the Triple Helix model has focused primarily on Science and Technology collaborations, largely ignoring other fields. Hence, there is an opportunity for work to be done in seeking to better understand how the Triple Helix framework might apply in the field of creative industries and what knowledge might be gleaned from such an undertaking. Since the late 1990s, the concept of ‘creative industries’ has been introduced as policy and academic discourse. The development of creative industries policy by city agencies has improved city wealth creation and economic capital. It claims to generate a ‘new economy’ of enterprise dynamics and activities for urban renewal through the arts and digital media, via knowledge transfer in knowledge-based economies. Creative industries also involve commercial inputs to the creative economy, to dynamically reshape the city into an innovative culture. In particular, this paper will concentrate on creative spaces (incubators, digital tech parks, maker spaces, art hubs) where academic, industry and government interact. China has sought to enhance the brand of their manufacturing industry in cultural policy. It aims to transfer the image of ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in China’ as well as to give Chinese brands more international competitiveness in a global economy. Shenzhen is a notable example in China as an international knowledge-based city following this path. In 2009, the Shenzhen Municipal Government proposed the city slogan ‘Build a Leading Cultural City”’ to show the ambition of government’s strong will to develop Shenzhen’s cultural capacity and creativity. The vision of Shenzhen is to become a cultural innovation center, a regional cultural center and an international cultural city. However, there has been a lack of attention to the triple helix interactions in the creative industries in China. In particular, there is limited knowledge about how interactions in creative spaces co-location within triple helix networks significantly influence city based innovation. That is, the roles of participating institutions need to be better understood. Thus, this paper discusses the interplay between university, creative industries and government in Shenzhen. Secondary analysis and documentary analysis will be used as methods in an effort to practically ground and illustrate this theoretical framework. Furthermore, this paper explores how are creative spaces being used to implement Triple Helix in creative industries. In particular, the new combination of resources generated from the synthesized consolidation and interactions through the institutions. This study will thus provide an innovative lens to understand the components, relationships and functions that exist within creative spaces by applying Triple Helix framework to the creative industries.

Keywords: cultural policy, creative industries, creative city, triple Helix

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Jose L. Diego, Antonio Berlanga, Gregorio López, Diana López

Abstract:

The Rayuela method is a success story, as it is part of a project selected by the European Commission to face the challenge launched by itself for achieving a better understanding of human factors, as well as social and organisational aspects that are able to solve issues in fighting against crime. Rayuela's method specifically focuses on the drivers of cyber criminality, including approaches to prevent, investigate, and mitigate cybercriminal behavior. As the internet has become an integral part of young people’s lives, they are the key target of the Rayuela method because they (as a victim or as a perpetrator) are the most vulnerable link of the chain. Considering the increased time spent online and the control of their internet usage and the low level of awareness of cyber threats and their potential impact, it is understandable the proliferation of incidents due to human mistakes. 51% of Europeans feel not well informed about cyber threats, and 86% believe that the risk of becoming a victim of cybercrime is rapidly increasing. On the other hand, Law enforcement has noted that more and more young people are increasingly committing cybercrimes. This is an international problem that has considerable cost implications; it is estimated that crimes in cyberspace will cost the global economy $445B annually. Understanding all these phenomena drives to the necessity of a shift in focus from sanctions to deterrence and prevention. As a research project, Rayuela aims to bring together law enforcement agencies (LEAs), sociologists, psychologists, anthropologists, legal experts, computer scientists, and engineers, to develop novel methodologies that allow better understanding the factors affecting online behavior related to new ways of cyber criminality, as well as promoting the potential of these young talents for cybersecurity and technologies. Rayuela’s main goal is to better understand the drivers and human factors affecting certain relevant ways of cyber criminality, as well as empower and educate young people in the benefits, risks, and threats intrinsically linked to the use of the Internet by playing, thus preventing and mitigating cybercriminal behavior. In order to reach that goal it´s necessary an interdisciplinary consortium (formed by 17 international partners) carries out researches and actions like Profiling and case studies of cybercriminals and victims, risk assessments, studies on Internet of Things and its vulnerabilities, development of a serious gaming environment, training activities, data analysis and interpretation using Artificial intelligence, testing and piloting, etc. For facilitating the real implementation of the Rayuela method, as a community policing strategy, is crucial to count on a Police Force with a solid background in trust-building and community policing in order to do the piloting, specifically with young people. In this sense, Valencia Local Police is a pioneer Police Force working with young people in conflict solving, through providing police mediation and peer mediation services and advice. As an example, it is an official mediation institution, so agreements signed by their police mediators have once signed by the parties, the value of a judicial decision.

Keywords: fight against crime and insecurity, avert and prepare young people against aggression, ICT, serious gaming and artificial intelligence against cybercrime, conflict solving and mediation with young people

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Sascha E. Oswald, Jan Busch

Abstract:

The in-situ dechlorination of contamination by chlorinated solvents in groundwater via zero-valent iron (nZVI) is potentially an efficient and prompt remediation method. A key requirement is that nZVI has to be introduced in the subsurface in a way that substantial quantities of the contaminants are actually brought into direct contact with the nZVI in the aquifer. Thus it could be a more flexible and precise alternative to permeable reactive barrier techniques using granular iron. However, nZVI are often limited by fast agglomeration and sedimentation in colloidal suspensions, even more so in the aquifer sediments, which is a handicap for the application to treat source zones or contaminant plumes. Colloid-supported nZVI show promising characteristics to overcome these limitations and Carbo-Iron Colloids is a newly developed composite material aiming for that. The nZVI is built onto finely ground activated carbon of about a micrometer diameter acting as a carrier for it. The Carbo-Iron Colloids are often suspended with a polyanionic stabilizer, and carboxymethyl cellulose is one with good properties for that. We have investigated the transport behavior of Carbo-Iron Colloids (CIC) on different scales and for different conditions to assess its mobility in aquifer sediments as a key property for making its application feasible. The transport properties were tested in one-dimensional laboratory columns, a two-dimensional model aquifer and also an injection experiment in the field. Those experiments were accompanied by non-invasive tomographic investigations of the transport and filtration processes of CIC suspensions. The laboratory experiments showed that a larger part of the CIC can travel at least scales of meters for favorable but realistic conditions. Partly this is even similar to a dissolved tracer. For less favorable conditions this can be much smaller and in all cases a particular fraction of the CIC injected is retained mainly shortly after entering the porous medium. As field experiment a horizontal flow field was established, between two wells with a distance of 5 meters, in a confined, shallow aquifer at a contaminated site in North German lowlands. First a tracer test was performed and a basic model was set up to define the design of the CIC injection experiment. Then CIC suspension was introduced into the aquifer at the injection well while the second well was pumped and samples taken there to observe the breakthrough of CIC. This was based on direct visual inspection and total particle and iron concentrations of water samples analyzed in the laboratory later. It could be concluded that at least 12% of the CIC amount injected reached the extraction well in due course, some of it traveling distances larger than 10 meters in the non-uniform dipole flow field. This demonstrated that these CIC particles have a substantial mobility for reaching larger volumes of a contaminated aquifer and for interacting there by their reactivity with dissolved contaminants in the pore space. Therefore they seem suited well for groundwater remediation by in-situ formation of reactive barriers for chlorinated solvent plumes or even source removal.

Keywords: carbo-iron colloids, chlorinated solvents, in-situ remediation, particle transport, plume treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Kevin W. Zobrist, Patricia A. Townsend, Nora M. Haider

Abstract:

Advanced Hardwood Biofuels Northwest (AHB) is a consortium funded by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to research the potential for a system to produce advanced biofuels (jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline) from hybrid poplar in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. An Extension team was established as part of the project to examine community readiness and willingness to adopt hybrid as a purpose-grown bioenergy crop. The Extension team surveyed key stakeholder groups, including growers, Extension professionals, policy makers, and environmental groups, to examine attitudes and concerns about growing hybrid poplar for biofuels. The surveys found broad skepticism about the viability of such a system. The top concern for most stakeholder groups was economic viability and the availability of predictable markets. Growers had additional concerns stemming from negative past experience with hybrid poplar as an unprofitable endeavor for pulp and paper production. Additional barriers identified included overall land availability and the availability of water and water rights for irrigation in dry areas of the region. Since the beginning of the project, oil and natural gas prices have plummeted due to rapid increases in domestic production. This has exacerbated the problem with economic viability by making biofuels even less competitive than fossil fuels. However, the AHB project has identified intermediate market opportunities to use poplar as a renewable source for other biochemicals produced by petroleum refineries, such as acetic acid, ethyl acetate, ethanol, and ethylene. These chemicals can be produced at a lower cost with higher yields and higher, more-stable prices. Despite these promising market opportunities, the survey results suggest that it will still be challenging to induce growers to adopt hybrid poplar. Early adopters will be needed to establish an initial feedstock supply for a budding industry. Through demonstration sites and outreach events to various stakeholder groups, the project attracted interest from wastewater treatment facilities, since these facilities are already growing hybrid poplar plantations for applying biosolids and treated wastewater for further purification, clarification, and nutrient control through hybrid poplar’s phytoremediation capabilities. Since these facilities are already using hybrid poplar, selling the wood as feedstock for a biorefinery would be an added bonus rather than something requiring a high rate of return to compete with other crops and land uses. By holding regional workshops and conferences with wastewater professionals, AHB Extension has found strong interest from wastewater treatment operators. In conclusion, there are several significant barriers to developing a successful system for producing biofuels from hybrid poplar, with the largest barrier being economic viability. However, there is potential for wastewater treatment facilities to serve as early adopters for hybrid poplar production for intermediate biochemicals and eventually biofuels.

Keywords: hybrid poplar, biofuels, biochemicals, wastewater treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

Abstract:

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 45