Search results for: exponential stability in probability

Authors: Mohamed M. Emara, Heba Ashraf

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This study is to investigation the effect of silicon carbide (SiC) particle size and thermo-mechanical processing on dimensional stability of aluminum alloy 2124. Three combinations of SiC weight fractions are investigated, 2.5, 5, and 10 wt. % with different SiC particle sizes (25 μm, 5 μm, and 100nm) were produced using mechanical ball mill. The standard testing samples were fabricated using powder metallurgy technique. Both samples, prior and after extrusion, were heated from room temperature up to 400ºC in a dilatometer at different heating rates, that is, 10, 20, and 40ºC/min. The analysis showed that for all materials, there was an increase in length change as temperature increased and the temperature sensitivity of aluminum alloy decreased in the presence of both micro and nano-sized silicon carbide. For all conditions, nanocomposites showed better dimensional stability compared to conventional Al 2124/SiC composites. The after extrusion samples showed better thermal stability and less temperature sensitivity for the aluminum alloy for both micro and nano-sized silicon carbide.

Keywords: aluminum 2124 metal matrix composite, SiC nano-sized reinforcements, powder metallurgy, extrusion mechanical ball mill, dimensional stability

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Authors: Garry A. Einicke, Langford B. White

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This paper describes an optimum filter and smoother for recovering a Markov process message from noisy measurements. The developments follow from an equivalence between a state space model and a hidden Markov chain. The ensuing filter and smoother employ transition probability matrices and approximate probability distribution vectors. The properties of the optimum solutions are retained, namely, the estimates are unbiased and minimize the variance of the output estimation error, provided that the assumed parameter set are correct. Methods for estimating unknown parameters from noisy measurements are discussed. Signal recovery examples are described in which performance benefits are demonstrated at an increased calculation cost.

Keywords: optimal filtering, smoothing, Markov chains

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Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, V. Ramya

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In the modern electronic warfare, the signal scenario is changing at a rapid pace with the introduction of Low Probability of Intercept (LPI) radars. In the modern battlefield, radar system faces serious threats from passive intercept receivers such as Electronic Attack (EA) and Anti-Radiation Missiles (ARMs). To perform necessary target detection and tracking and simultaneously hide themselves from enemy attack, radar systems should be LPI. These LPI radars use a variety of complex signal modulation schemes together with pulse compression with the aid of advancement in signal processing capabilities of the radar such that the radar performs target detection and tracking while simultaneously hiding enemy from attack such as EA etc., thus posing a major challenge to the ES/ELINT receivers. Today an increasing number of LPI radars are being introduced into the modern platforms and weapon systems so these LPI radars created a requirement for the armed forces to develop new techniques, strategies and equipment to counter them. This paper presents various modulation techniques used in generation of LPI signals and development of Time Frequency Algorithms to analyse those signals.

Keywords: anti-radiation missiles, cross terms, electronic attack, electronic intelligence, electronic warfare, intercept receiver, low probability of intercept

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Authors: Fahim Kahlouche, Alaoua Bouaicha, Sihem Chaîbeddra, Sid-Ali Rafa, Abdelhamid Benouali

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A designing of a structure requires its realization on rough or sloping ground. Besides the problem of the stability of the landslide, the behavior of the foundations that are bearing the structure is influenced by the destabilizing effect of the ground’s slope. This article focuses on the analysis of the slope stability exposed to loading by introducing the different factors influencing the slope’s behavior on the one hand, and on the influence of this slope on the foundation’s behavior on the other hand. This study is about the elastoplastic modelization using FLAC 2D. This software is based on the finite difference method, which is one of the older methods of numeric resolution of differential equations system with initial and boundary conditions. It was developed for the geotechnical simulation calculation. The aim of this simulation is to demonstrate the notable effect of shear modulus « G », cohesion « C », inclination angle (edge) « β », and distance between the foundation and the head of the slope on the stability of the slope as well as the stability of the foundation. In our simulation, the slope is constituted by homogenous ground. The foundation is considered as rigid/hard; therefore, the loading is made by the application of the vertical strengths on the nodes which represent the contact between the foundation and the ground. 

Keywords: slope, shallow foundation, numeric method, FLAC 2D

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Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

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Motivation: The Nigerian economy has seen significant macroeconomic instability, fuelled mostly by an overreliance on fluctuating oil revenues. The rising disparity between tax receipts and government spending in Nigeria necessitates government borrowing to fund the anticipated pace of economic growth. Rising public debt and fiscal sustainability are limiting the government's ability to invest in key infrastructure that promotes private investment and growth in Nigeria. Objective: This paper fills an empirical research vacuum by examining the impact of public debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria, given the significance of fiscal stability in decreasing poverty and the constraints that an unsustainable debt burden imposes on it. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2022 exposed to conventional and structural breaks stationarity tests and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag estimation approach were adopted for this study. Results: The results reveal that domestic debt stock, debt service payment, foreign reserve stock, exchange rate, and private investment all had a major adverse effect on fiscal stability in the long and short run, corroborating the debt overhang and crowding-out hypothesis. External debt stock, prime lending rate, and degree of trade openness, which boosted fiscal stability in the long run, had a major detrimental effect on fiscal stability in the short run, whereas foreign direct investment inflows had an important beneficial impact on fiscal stability in both the long and short run. Implications: The results indicate that fiscal measures that inspire domestic resource mobilization, sustainable debt management techniques, and dependence on external debt to boost deficit financing will improve fiscal stability and drive growth.

Keywords: ARDL co-integration, debt overhang, debt servicing, fiscal stability, public debt

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Authors: Anuar Ishak

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The characteristics of stagnation point flow of a nanofluid towards a stretching/shrinking sheet are investigated. The governing partial differential equations are transformed into a set of ordinary differential equations, which are then solved numerically using MATLAB routine boundary value problem solver bvp4c. The numerical results show that dual (upper and lower branch) solutions exist for the shrinking case, while for the stretching case, the solution is unique. A stability analysis is performed to determine the stability of the dual solutions. It is found that the skin friction decreases when the sheet is stretched, but increases when the suction effect is increased. It is also found that increasing the thermophoresis parameter reduces the heat transfer rate at the surface, while increasing the Brownian motion parameter increases the mass transfer rate at the surface.

Keywords: dual solutions, heat transfer, forced convection, nanofluid, stability analysis

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Authors: Weiying Wang, Qi Li, Huiwen Deng, Weirong Chen

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The abrupt light change and uneven illumination will make the PV system get rid of constant output power, which will affect the efficiency of the grid connected inverter as well as the stability of the system. To solve this problem, this paper presents a strategy to control the stability of photovoltaic power system under the condition of partial shading of PV array, leading to constant power output, improving the capacity of resisting interferences. Firstly, a photovoltaic cell model considering the partial shading is established, and the backtracking search algorithm is used as the maximum power point to track algorithm under complex illumination. Then, the energy storage system based on the constant power control strategy is used to achieve constant power output. Finally, the effectiveness and correctness of the proposed control method are verified by the joint simulation of MATLAB/Simulink and RTLAB simulation platform.

Keywords: backtracking search algorithm, constant power control, hybrid system, partial shading, stability

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Authors: Ekere E. Kokonne, Isimi C. Yetunde, Okoh E. Judith, Okafor E. Ijeoma, Ajeh J. Isaac, Olobayo O. Kunle, Emeje O. Martins

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NIPRIMAL® is a mono herbal formulation of Nauclea latifolia used in the treatment of malaria. The stability of extracts made from plant material is essential to ensure the quality, safety and efficacy of the finished product. This study assessed the stability of the formulation under three different storage conditions; normal room temperature, infrared and under refrigeration. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thin Layer Chromatography (TLC) were used to monitor the formulations. The DSC analysis was done from 0oC to 350oC under the three storage conditions. Results obtained indicate that NIPRIMAL® was stable at all the storage conditions investigated. Thin layer chromatography (TLC) after 6 months showed there was no significant difference between retention factor (RF) values for the various storage conditions. The reference sample had four spots with RF values of 0.47, 0.68, 0.76, 0.82 respectively and these spots were retained in the test formulations with corresponding RF values were after 6 months at room temperature and refrigerated temperature been 0.56, 0.73, 0.80, 0.92 and 0.47, 0.68, 0.76, 0.82 respectively. On the other hand, the RF values (0.55, 0.74, 0.77, 0.93) obtained under infrared after 1 month varied slightly from the reference. The sample exposed to infrared had a lower heat capacity compared to that stored under room temperature or refrigeration. A combination of TLC and DSC measurements has been applied for assessing the stability of NIPRIMAL®. Both methods were found to be rapid, sensitive and reliable in determining its stability. It is concluded that NIPRIMAL® can be stored under any of the tested conditions without degradation. This study is a major contribution towards developing appropriate stability monitoring parameters for herbal products.

Keywords: differential scanning calorimetry, formulation, NIPRIMAL®, stability, thin layer hromatography

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Authors: Annie B. V., Anu A. G., Harikumar R.

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Microgrid (MG) is a self-governing miniature section of the power system. Nowadays the majority of loads and energy storage devices are inherently in DC form. This necessitates a greater scope of research in the various types of energy storage devices in DC microgrids. In a modern power system, DC microgrid is a manageable electric power system usually integrated with renewable energy sources (RESs) and DC loads with the help of power electronic converters. The stability of the DC microgrid mainly depends on the power imbalance. Power imbalance due to the presence of intermittent renewable energy resources (RERs) is supplied by energy storage devices. Battery, supercapacitor, flywheel, etc. are some of the commonly used energy storage devices. Owing to the high energy density provided by the batteries, this type of energy storage system is mainly utilized in all sorts of hybrid energy storage systems. To minimize the stability issues, a Supercapacitor (SC) is usually interfaced with the help of a bidirectional DC/DC converter. SC can exchange power during transient conditions due to its high power density. This paper analyses the stability issues of DC microgrids with hybrid energy storage systems (HESSs) arises from a reduction in SC operating voltage due to self-discharge. The stability of DC microgrid and power management is analyzed with different control strategies.

Keywords: DC microgrid, hybrid energy storage system (HESS), power management, small signal modeling, supercapacitor

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Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Vanja Misic, Mohamed El-Mogy, Yousef Haj-Ahmad

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Endonuclease G (EndoG) is a well conserved mitochondrio-nuclear nuclease with dual lethal and vital roles in the cell. The aim of our study was to examine whether EndoG exerts its nuclease activity on exogenous DNA substrates such as plasmid DNA (pDNA), considering their importance in gene therapy applications. The effects of EndoG knockdown on pDNA stability and levels of encoded reporter gene expression were evaluated in the cervical carcinoma HeLa cells. Transfection of pDNA vectors encoding short-hairpin RNAs (shRNAs) reduced levels of EndoG mRNA and nuclease activity in HeLa cells. In physiological circumstances, EndoG knockdown did not have an effect on the stability of pDNA or the levels of encoded transgene expression as measured over a four day time-course. However, when endogenous expression of EndoG was induced by an extrinsic stimulus, targeting of EndoG by shRNA improved the perceived stability and transgene expression of pDNA vectors. Therefore, EndoG is not a mediator of exogenous DNA clearance, but in non-physiological circumstances it may non-specifically cleave intracellular DNA regardless of its origin. These findings make it unlikely that targeting of EndoG is a viable strategy for improving the duration and level of transgene expression from non-viral DNA vectors in gene therapy efforts.

Keywords: EndoG, silencing, exogenous DNA stability, HeLa cells

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Authors: Alexander V. Spirov, David M. Holloway, Ekaterina M. Myasnikova

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Segmentation of the early Drosophila embryo results from the dynamic establishment of spatial gene expression patterns. Patterning occurs on an embryo geometry which is a 'deformed' prolate ellipsoid, with anteroposterior and dorsal-ventral major and minor axes, respectively. Patterning is largely independent along each axis, but some interaction can be seen in the 'bending' of the segmental expression stripes. This interaction is not well understood. In this report, we investigate how 3D geometrical features of the early embryo affect the segmental expression patterning. Specifically, we study the effect of geometry on formation of the Bicoid primary morphogenetic gradient. Our computational results demonstrate that embryos with a much longer ventral than dorsal surface ('bellied') can produce curved Bicoid concentration contours which could activate curved stripes in the downstream pair-rule segmentation genes. In addition, we show that having an extended source for Bicoid in the anterior of the embryo may be necessary for producing the observed exponential form of the Bicoid gradient along the anteroposterior axis.

Keywords: Drosophila embryo, bicoid morphogenetic gradient, exponential expression profile, expression surface form, segmentation genes, 3D modelling

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Authors: Safari Mat Desa, Othman A. Karim, Mohd Kamarulhuda Samion, Saiful Bahri Hamzah

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Rubble mound breakwater was one of the most popular designs in Malaysia, constructed at the river mouth to dissipate the incoming wave energy from the seaward. Geometrically characteristics in trapezoid, crest width, and bottom width will determine the hypotonus stability, whilst structural height was designed for wave overtopping consideration. Physical hydraulic modelling in two-dimensional facilities was instigated in the flume to test the stability as well as the overtopping rate complied with the method of similarity, namely kinematic, dynamic, and geometric. Scaling effects of wave characteristics were carried out in order to acquire significant interaction of wave height, wave period, and water depth. Results showed two-dimensional physical modelling has proven reliable capability to ascertain breakwater stability significantly.

Keywords: breakwater, geometrical characteristic, wave overtopping, physical hydraulic modelling, method of similarity, wave characteristic

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Authors: Thanh Phuong Doan, Narueporn Sutanthavibul

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The influence of freezing cycle on influenza haemagglutinin (HA) conformational stability was investigated in terms of freezing rates and formulation compositions. The results showed that appropriate HA conformation could be evaluated using circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy with HA concentration of greater than 0.09 mg/ml. The intermediate freezing rate of approximately 1.0oC/min preserved the original HA conformation better than at slow freezing rate (0.5oC/min) and rapid freezing rate (2.6oC/min). The changes in CD spectra of the secondary HA structure were more pronounced than those of the tertiary HA structure during the evaluation. Additionally, the formulations, which resulted in the highest conformational stability were found to have sucrose present in the composition. As opposed to when only glycine was used, the stability of HA conformation was poor.

Keywords: freezing, haemagglutinin, influenza, circular dichroism

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Authors: Nurzaki Ikhsan, Ahmad Saifizul Abdullah, Rahizar Ramli

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One of the functions of the commercial heavy vehicle is to safely and efficiently transport goods and people. Due to its size and carrying capacity, it is important to study the vehicle dynamic stability during cornering. Study has shown that there are a number of overloaded heavy vehicles or permissible gross vehicle weight (GVW) violations recorded at selected areas in Malaysia assigned by its type and category. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate the correlation and effect of the GVW on heavy vehicle stability during cornering event using simulation. Various selected heavy vehicle types and category are simulated using IPG/Truck Maker® with different GVW and road condition (coefficient of friction of road surface), while the speed, driver characteristic, center of gravity of load and road geometry are constant. Based on the analysis, the relationship between GVW and lateral acceleration were established. As expected, on the same value of coefficient of friction, the maximum lateral acceleration would be increased as the GVW increases.

Keywords: heavy vehicle, road safety, vehicle stability, lateral acceleration, gross vehicle weight

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Rahul Kumar

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Background: Under-FiveMortality Rate(U5MR)ofanationiswidelyacceptedandlong-standing indicators of well-beingofherchildren.They measuredtheprobability of dying before theageoffive(expressedper1000livebirths).TheU5MRisanappropriate indicator of the cumulative exposure totheriskofdeathduringthefirstfiveyearsoflife, and accepted globalindicator ofthehealthandsocioeconomicstatusofagiven population.Itisalsousefulforassessing theimpactofvariousintervention programmes aimed at improving child survival.Under-fivemortalitytrendsconstitutealeadingindicatorofthelevel ofchildhealthandoveralldevelopmentincountries. Objectives: The first aim of our research is to study the level, trends, and Pattern of Under-five mortality using different sources of data. The second objective is to examine the survival pattern of Under-five mortality by different background characteristics. Data Source and Methodology: SRS and NFHS data have been used forobservingthelevelandtrendofUnder-Five mortality rate. Kaplan Meier Estimate has been used to understand the survival Pattern of Under-five mortality. Result: WefindthatallmostallthestatesmadesomeprogressbyreducingU5MRin recent decades.During1992-93highestU5MR(per thousand live birth) was observed in Assam(142)followed by up(141),Odisha(131),MP(130),andBihar(127.5).While the least U5MR(perthousandlive birth)wasobservedinRajasthan(102). The highestU5MR(per thousandlive birth)isobservedinUP(78.1), followed by MP(64.9)and Chhattisgarh(63.7)which are far away from the national level(50). Among them, Uttarakhand(46.7)hadleastU5MR(perthousandlivebirth), followed by Odisha(48.6). TheU5MR(perthousandlivebirth)ofcombinedhighfocusstateis63.7whichisfar away fromthenationallevel(50). Weidentified thatthesurvivalprobability ofunder-fivechildrenfromadolescentmotherislessin comparisontootherchildrenbornby differentagegroupofmothers. thatduringneonatalperiodusually male mortality exceedsthefemale mortality butthisdifferentialreversedinthepostneonatalperiod. Astheirageincreasesand approachingtofiveyears,weidentifiedthatthesurvivalprobability ofbothsexdecreasesbut female’s survival probabilitydecrement is more than male as their ageincreases. The poorer children’s survival probability is minimum. Children using improved toilet facility has more survival probability throughout thefiveyearsthan who uses unimproved. The survival probability of children under five who got Full ANCis more than the survival probability of children under five who doesn’t get any ANC. Conclusions: Improvement of maternal education is an urgent need to improve their health seeking behavior and thus the health of their children. Awareness on reproductive health and environmental sanitation should be strengthened.

Keywords: under-five mortality, survival pattern, ANC, trend

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Authors: Yu Song, Yuefei Jin

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Urban public transportation can be integrated when there is an efficient connection between urban rail lines, however, there are currently no effective or quick solutions being investigated for this connection. This paper analyzes the space-time distribution and travel demand of passenger connection travel based on taxi track data and data from the road network, excavates potential bus connection stations based on potential connection demand data, and introduces the link growth probability model in the complex network to solve the basic connection bus lines in order to ascertain the direction of the bus lines that are the most connected given the demand characteristics. Then, a tree view exhaustive approach based on constraints is suggested based on graph theory, which can hasten the convergence of findings while doing chain calculations. This study uses WEI QU NAN Station, the Xi'an Metro Line 2 terminal station in Shaanxi Province, as an illustration, to evaluate the model's and the solution method's efficacy. According to the findings, 153 prospective stations have been dug up in total, the feeder bus network for the entire line has been laid out, and the best route adjustment strategy has been found.

Keywords: feeder bus, route optimization, link growth probability, the graph theory

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Authors: A. GuhaRay, C. V. S. P. Kiranmayi, S. Rudraraju

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The present study considers the effect of variation of different geotechnical random variables in the design of stone column-foundation systems for assessing the bearing capacity and consolidation settlement of highly compressible soil. The soil and stone column properties, spacing, diameter and arrangement of stone columns are considered as the random variables. Probability of failure (P_f) is computed for a target degree of consolidation and a target safe load by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The study shows that the variation in coefficient of radial consolidation (c_r) and cohesion of soil (c_s) are two most important factors influencing Pf. If the coefficient of variation (COV) of c_r exceeds 20%, P_f exceeds 0.001, which is unsafe following the guidelines of US Army Corps of Engineers. The bearing capacity also exceeds its safe value for COV of c_s > 30%. It is also observed that as the spacing between the stone column increases, the probability of reaching a target degree of consolidation decreases. Accordingly, design guidelines, considering both consolidation and bearing capacity of improved ground, are proposed for different spacing and diameter of stone columns and geotechnical random variables.

Keywords: bearing capacity, consolidation, geotechnical random variables, probability of failure, stone columns

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Authors: B. D. Nkosi, T. F. Mutavhatsindi, J. J. Baloyi, R. Meeske, T. M. Langa, I. M. M. Malebana, M. D. Motiang

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Potato hash (PH), a by-product from food production industry, contains 188.4 g dry matter (DM)/kg and 3.4 g water soluble carbohydrate (WSC)/kg DM, and was mixed with wheat bran (70:30 as is basis) to provide 352 g DM/kg and 315 g WSC/kg DM. The materials were ensiled with or without silage additives in 1.5L anaerobic jars (3 jars/treatment) that were kept at 25-280 C for 3 months. Four types of silages were produced which were: control (no additive, denoted as T1), celluclast enzyme (denoted as T2), emsilage bacterial inoculant (denoted as T3) and silosolve bacterial inoculant (denoted as T4). Three jars per treatment were opened after 3 months of ensiling for the determination of nutritive values, fermentation characteristics and aerobic stability. Aerobic stability was done by exposing silage samples to air for 5 days. The addition of enzyme (T2) was reduced (P<0.05) silage pH, fiber fractions (NDF and ADF) while increasing (P < 0.05) residual WSC and lactic acid (LA) production, compared to other treatments. Silage produced had pH of < 4.0, indications of well-preserved silage. Bacterial inoculation (T3 and T4) improved (P < 0.05) aerobic stability of the silage, as indicated by increased number of hours and lower CO2 production, compared to other treatments. However, the aerobic stability of silage was worsen (P < 0.05) with the addition of an enzyme (T2). Further work to elucidate these effects on nutrient digestion and growth performance on ruminants fed the silage is needed.

Keywords: by-products, digestibility, feeds, inoculation, ruminants, silage

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Authors: Nitaya Buntao

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This paper considers the problems of interval estimation for rainfall mean of the lognormal distribution and the delta-lognormal distribution in Northeastern Thailand. We present here the modified generalized pivotal approach (MGPA) compared to the modified method of variance estimates recovery (MMOVER). The performance of each method is examined in term of coverage probabilities and average lengths by Monte Carlo simulation. An extensive simulation study indicates that the MMOVER performs better than the MGPA approach in terms of the coverage probability; it results in highly accurate coverage probability.

Keywords: rainfall mean, interval estimation, lognormal distribution, delta-lognormal distribution

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Authors: Abdelhakam A. Noreldien, Sakhr B. Abudarag, Muslim S. Eltoum, Salih O. Osman

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This paper presents an analytical study of Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (SUAV) dynamic stability derivatives. Simulating SUAV dynamics and analyzing its behavior at the earliest design stages is too important and more efficient design aspect. The approach suggested in this paper is using the wind tunnel experiment to collect the aerodynamic data and get the dynamic stability derivatives. AutoCAD Software was used to draw the case study (wildlife surveillance SUAV). The SUAV is scaled down to be 0.25% of the real SUAV dimensions and converted to a wind tunnel model. The model was tested in three different speeds for three different attitudes which are; pitch, roll and yaw. The wind tunnel results were then used to determine the case study stability derivative values, and hence it used to calculate the roots of the characteristic equation for both longitudinal and lateral motions. Finally, the characteristic equation roots were found and discussed in all possible cases.

Keywords: model, simulating, SUAV, wind tunnel

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Authors: Anuar Ishak

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The mixed convection stagnation point flow toward a vertical plate is investigated. The external flow impinges normal to the heated plate and the surface temperature is assumed to vary linearly with the distance from the stagnation point. The governing partial differential equations are transformed into a set of ordinary differential equations, which are then solved numerically using MATLAB routine boundary value problem solver bvp4c. Numerical results show that dual solutions are possible for a certain range of the mixed convection parameter. A stability analysis is performed to determine which solution is linearly stable and physically realizable.

Keywords: dual solutions, heat transfer, mixed convection, stability analysis

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Authors: Kwang Chun, John Kemeny

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Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has been a prevalent remote-sensing technology applied in the geological fields due to its high precision and ease of use. One of the major applications is to use the detailed geometrical information of underground structures as a basis for the generation of a three-dimensional numerical model that can be used in a geotechnical stability analysis such as FEM or DEM. To date, however, straightforward techniques in reconstructing the numerical model from the scanned data of the underground structures have not been well established or tested. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive approach integrating all the various processes, from LiDAR scanning to finite element numerical analysis. The study focuses on converting LiDAR 3D point clouds of geologic structures containing complex surface geometries into a finite element model. This methodology has been applied to Kartchner Caverns in Arizona, where detailed underground and surface point clouds can be used for the analysis of underground stability. Numerical simulations were performed using the finite element code Abaqus and presented by 3D computing visualization solution, ParaView. The results are useful in studying the stability of all types of underground excavations including underground mining and tunneling.

Keywords: finite element analysis, LiDAR, remote-sensing, scientific visualization, underground stability

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Authors: Sunita Makchuchit, Arunporn Itharat

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Prasaprohyai, a Thai traditional medicine preparation listed in the Thai National List of Essential Medicines, is commonly used for treatment of fever and colds. Prasaprohyai preparation consists of 21 different plants, with Kaempferia galanga (50% w/w) as the main ingredient. The objective of this study was to investigate the anti-allergic activity of the crude extract from Prasaprohyai after accelerated stability test procedure. The method of extract used maceration in 95% ethanol and the crude extract was kept under accelerated condition at 40 ± 2 oC and 75 ± 5% relative humidity (RH) for six months. After six months of storage at 40 oC, the crude sample in various storage times (0, 15, 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 days) were investigated for anti-allergic activity using IgE-sensitized RBL-2H3 cell lines. The results showed that the stability of crude ethanolic extract from Prasaprohyai under accelerated testing had no significant effect of anti-allergic activity when compared with day 0. The results showed that the ethanolic extract could be stored for two years at room temperature without loss of activity.

Keywords: accelerated stability, anti-allergy, prasaprohyai, RBL-2H3 cell lines

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Abir Touati, Syed Jawad Hussain, Farid Touati, Ammar Bouallegue

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Although there has been a growing interest in the hybrid free-space optical link and radio frequency FSO/RF communication system, the current literature is limited to results obtained in moderate or cold environment. In this paper, using a soft switching approach, we investigate the effect of weather inhomogeneities on the strength of turbulence hence the channel refractive index under Qatar harsh environment and their influence on the hybrid FSO/RF availability. In this approach, either FSO/RF or simultaneous or none of them can be active. Based on soft switching approach and a finite state Markov Chain (FSMC) process, we model the channel fading for the two links and derive a mathematical expression for the outage probability of the hybrid system. Then, we evaluate the behavior of the hybrid FSO/RF under hazy and harsh weather. Results show that the FSO/RF soft switching renders the system outage probability less than that of each link individually. A soft switching algorithm is being implemented on FPGAs using Raptor code interfaced to the two terminals of a 1Gbps/100 Mbps FSO/RF hybrid system, the first being implemented in the region. Experimental results are compared to the above simulation results.

Keywords: atmospheric turbulence, haze, hybrid FSO/RF, outage probability, refractive index

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Authors: Pemika Ketsuwan, Pitt Supaphol, Manit Nithitanakul

Abstract:

A typical used of ethylene methyl acrylate (EMA) gasket is in the manufacture of optical lens, and often, they are deteriorated rapidly due to high temperature during the process. The objective of this project is to improve the thermal stability of the EMA copolymer gasket by preparing EMA with cellulose and silica composites. Hydroxy propyl methyl cellulose (HPMC) and Carboxy methyl cellulose (CMC) were used in preparing of EMA/cellulose composites and fumed silica (SiO2) was used in preparing EMA/silica composites with different amounts of filler (3, 5, 7, 10, 15 wt.%), using a twin screw extruder at 160 °C and the test specimens were prepared by the injection molding machine. The morphology and dispersion of fillers in the EMA matrix were investigated by field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM). The thermal stability of the composite was determined by thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), and differential scanning calorimeter (DSC). Mechanical properties were evaluated by tensile testing. The developed composites were found to enhance thermal and mechanical properties when compared to that of the EMA copolymer alone.

Keywords: ethylene methyl acrylate, HPMC, Silica, Thermal stability

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Authors: Martha E. Aguiar-Barrera, Humberto Gutierrez-Pulido, Veronica Vargas-Alejo

Abstract:

Identifying and modeling random phenomena is a fundamental cognitive process to understand and transform reality. Recognizing situations governed by chance and giving them a scientific interpretation, without being carried away by beliefs or intuitions, is a basic training for citizens. Hence the importance of generating teaching-learning processes, supported using technology, paying attention to model creation rather than only executing mathematical calculations. In order to develop the student's knowledge about basic probability distributions and decision making; in this work a model eliciting activity (MEA) is reported. The intention was applying the Model and Modeling Perspective to design an activity related to civil engineering that would be understandable for students, while involving them in its solution. Furthermore, the activity should imply a decision-making challenge based on sample data, and the use of the computer should be considered. The activity was designed considering the six design principles for MEA proposed by Lesh and collaborators. These are model construction, reality, self-evaluation, model documentation, shareable and reusable, and prototype. The application and refinement of the activity was carried out during three school cycles in the Probability and Statistics class for Civil Engineering students at the University of Guadalajara. The analysis of the way in which the students sought to solve the activity was made using audio and video recordings, as well as with the individual and team reports of the students. The information obtained was categorized according to the activity phase (individual or team) and the category of analysis (sample, linearity, probability, distributions, mechanization, and decision-making). With the results obtained through the MEA, four obstacles have been identified to understand and apply the binomial distribution: the first one was the resistance of the student to move from the linear to the probabilistic model; the second one, the difficulty of visualizing (infering) the behavior of the population through the sample data; the third one, viewing the sample as an isolated event and not as part of a random process that must be viewed in the context of a probability distribution; and the fourth one, the difficulty of decision-making with the support of probabilistic calculations. These obstacles have also been identified in literature on the teaching of probability and statistics. Recognizing these concepts as obstacles to understanding probability distributions, and that these do not change after an intervention, allows for the modification of these interventions and the MEA. In such a way, the students may identify themselves the erroneous solutions when they carrying out the MEA. The MEA also showed to be democratic since several students who had little participation and low grades in the first units, improved their participation. Regarding the use of the computer, the RStudio software was useful in several tasks, for example in such as plotting the probability distributions and to exploring different sample sizes. In conclusion, with the models created to solve the MEA, the Civil Engineering students improved their probabilistic knowledge and understanding of fundamental concepts such as sample, population, and probability distribution.

Keywords: linear model, models and modeling, probability, randomness, sample

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Authors: Mahdi Rahimi, Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedian, Mohammad Reza Aref

Abstract:

In this paper, a cellular communication scenario with a transmitter and an authorized user is considered to analyze its secrecy in the face of eavesdroppers and the interferences propagated unintentionally through the communication network. It is also assumed that some D2D pairs and eavesdroppers are randomly located in the cell. Assuming hardware impairment, perfect connection probability is analytically calculated, and upper bound is provided for the secrecy outage probability. In addition, a method based on random activation of D2Ds is proposed to improve network security. Finally, the analytical results are verified by simulations.

Keywords: physical layer security, stochastic geometry, device-to-device, hardware impairment

Procedia PDF Downloads 141