Search results for: exponential stability in probability

Authors: Ali Raheli, Rahim Habibifar, Behzad Mohammadi-Alasti, Mahdi Abbasgholipour

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This paper presents vibration behavior of a FGM micro-beam and its pull-in instability under a nonlinear electrostatic pressure. An exponential function has been applied to show the continuous gradation of the properties along thickness. Nonlinear integro-differential-electro-mechanical equation based on Euler–Bernoulli beam theory has been derived. The governing equation in the static analysis has been solved using Step-by-Step Linearization Method and Finite Difference Method. Fixed points or equilibrium positions and singular points have been shown in the state control space. In order to find the response to a step DC voltage, the nonlinear equation of motion has been solved using Galerkin-based reduced-order model and time histories and phase portrait for different applied voltages have been shown. The effects of electrostatic pressure on stability of FGM micro-beams having various amounts of the ceramic constituent have been investigated.

Keywords: FGM, MEMS, nonlinear vibration, electrical, dynamic pull-in voltage

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Authors: V. Sankaranarayanan, V. Amrita Sundari, Sunit P. Gopal

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This paper presents the design and implementation of a nonlinear controller for the point to point control of a mobile inverted pendulum (MIP). The controller is designed based on the kinematic model of the MIP to stabilize all the four coordinates. The stability of the closed-loop system is proved using Lyapunov stability theory. The proposed controller is validated through numerical simulations and also implemented in a laboratory prototype. The results are presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed closed loop system.

Keywords: mobile inverted pendulum, switched control, nonlinear systems, lyapunov stability

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Authors: Fikret Yalcinkaya, Hamza Unsal

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To understand how neurons work, it is required to combine experimental studies on neural science with numerical simulations of neuron models in a computer environment. In this regard, the simplicity and applicability of spiking neuron modeling functions have been of great interest in computational neuron science and numerical neuroscience in recent years. Spiking neuron models can be classified by exhibiting various neuronal behaviors, such as spiking and bursting. These classifications are important for researchers working on theoretical neuroscience. In this paper, three different spiking neuron models; Izhikevich, Adaptive Exponential Integrate Fire (AEIF) and Hindmarsh Rose (HR), which are based on first order differential equations, are discussed and compared. First, the physical meanings, derivatives, and differential equations of each model are provided and simulated in the Matlab environment. Then, by selecting appropriate parameters, the models were visually examined in the Matlab environment and it was aimed to demonstrate which model can simulate well-known biological neuron behaviours such as Tonic Spiking, Tonic Bursting, Mixed Mode Firing, Spike Frequency Adaptation, Resonator and Integrator. As a result, the Izhikevich model has been shown to perform Regular Spiking, Continuous Explosion, Intrinsically Bursting, Thalmo Cortical, Low-Threshold Spiking and Resonator. The Adaptive Exponential Integrate Fire model has been able to produce firing patterns such as Regular Ignition, Adaptive Ignition, Initially Explosive Ignition, Regular Explosive Ignition, Delayed Ignition, Delayed Regular Explosive Ignition, Temporary Ignition and Irregular Ignition. The Hindmarsh Rose model showed three different dynamic neuron behaviours; Spike, Burst and Chaotic. From these results, the Izhikevich cell model may be preferred due to its ability to reflect the true behavior of the nerve cell, the ability to produce different types of spikes, and the suitability for use in larger scale brain models. The most important reason for choosing the Adaptive Exponential Integrate Fire model is that it can create rich ignition patterns with fewer parameters. The chaotic behaviours of the Hindmarsh Rose neuron model, like some chaotic systems, is thought to be used in many scientific and engineering applications such as physics, secure communication and signal processing.

Keywords: Izhikevich, adaptive exponential integrate fire, Hindmarsh Rose, biological neuron behaviours, spiking neuron models

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Authors: M. Madigoe, R. Modiba

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High alloyed beta (β) phase-stabilized titanium alloys are known to have a low elastic modulus comparable to that of the human bone (≈30 GPa). The β phase in titanium alloys exhibits an elastic Young’s modulus of about 60-80 GPa, which is nearly half that of α-phase (100-120 GPa). In this work, a theoretical investigation of structural stability and thermodynamic stability, as well as the elastic properties of a quaternary Ti-Nb-Ta-Zr alloy, will be presented with an attempt to lower Young’s modulus. The structural stability and elastic properties of the alloy were evaluated using the first-principles approach within the density functional theory (DFT) framework implemented in the CASTEP code. The elastic properties include bulk modulus B, elastic Young’s modulus E, shear modulus cʹ and Poisson’s ratio v. Thermodynamic stability, as well as the fraction of β phase in the alloy, was evaluated using the Thermo-Calc software package. Thermodynamic properties such as Gibbs free energy (Δ?⁰?) and enthalpy of formation will be presented in addition to phase proportion diagrams. The stoichiometric compositions of the alloy is Ti-Nbx-Ta5-Zr5 (x = 5, 10, 20, 30, 40 at.%). An optimum alloy composition must satisfy the Born stability criteria and also possess low elastic Young’s modulus. In addition, the alloy must be thermodynamically stable, i.e., Δ?⁰? < 0.

Keywords: elastic modulus, phase proportion diagram, thermo-calc, titanium alloys

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Authors: Ormal Lishi

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This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

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Authors: Carlson Murray, Ali Lazrak

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Robust experimental evidence of systematic violations of expected utility (EU) establishes that individuals facing risk overweight utility from low probability gains and losses when making choices. These findings motivated development of models of preferences with probability weighting functions, such as rank dependent utility (RDU). We solve for the optimal investing strategy of an RDU investor in a dynamic binomial setting from which we derive implications for investing behavior. We show that relative to EU investors with constant relative risk aversion, commonly measured probability weighting functions produce optimal RDU terminal wealth with significant downside protection and upside exposure. We additionally find that in contrast to EU investors, RDU investors optimally choose a portfolio that contains fair bets that provide payo↵s that can be interpreted as lottery outcomes or exposure to idiosyncratic returns. In a calibrated version of the model, we calculate that RDU investors would be willing to pay 5% of their initial wealth for the freedom to trade away from an optimal EU wealth allocation. The dynamic trading strategy that supports the optimal wealth allocation implies portfolio weights that are independent of initial wealth but requires higher risky share after good stock return histories. Optimal trading also implies the possibility of non-participation when historical returns are poor. Our model fills a gap in the literature by providing new quantitative and qualitative predictions that can be tested experimentally or using data on household wealth and portfolio choice.

Keywords: behavioral finance, probability weighting, portfolio choice

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Authors: Nisha Deopa, Allam Srinivasa Rao

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Quaternary potassium lead alumino borate (KPbAlB) glasses doped with different concentration of Eu³⁺ ions have been synthesized by melt quench technique and characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning electron microscope (SEM), Photoluminescence (PL), Time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) and CIE-chromaticity co-ordinates to study their luminescence behavior. A broad hump was observed in XRD spectrum confirms glassy nature of as-prepared glasses. By using Judd-Ofelt (J-O) theory, various radiative parameters for the prominent fluorescent levels of Eu³⁺ have been investigated. The intense emission peak was observed at 613 nm (⁵D₀→⁷F₂) under 393 nm excitation, matches well with the excitation of n-UV LED chips. The decay profiles observed for ⁵D₀ level were exponential for lower Eu³⁺ ion concentration while non-exponential for higher concentration, which may be due to efficient energy transfer between Eu³⁺-Eu³⁺ through cross relaxation and subsequent quenching observed. From the emission cross-sections, branching ratios, quantum efficiency and CIE coordinates, it was concluded that 7 mol % of Eu³⁺ ion concentration (glass B) is optimum in KPbAlB glasses for photonic device application.

Keywords: energy transfer, glasses, J-O parameters, photoluminescence

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Authors: Manuel A. Guzman, Davide Forcellini, Ricardo Moreno, Diego H. Giraldo

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Elastomeric bearings (EB) are used in many applications, such as base isolation of bridges, seismic protection and vibration control of other structures and machinery. Their versatility is due to their particular behavior since they have different stiffness in the vertical and horizontal directions, allowing to sustain vertical loads and at the same time horizontal displacements. Therefore, vertical, horizontal and bending stiffnesses are important parameters to take into account in the design of EB. In order to acquire a proper design methodology of EB all three, theoretical, finite element analysis and experimental, approaches should be taken into account to assess stability due to different loading states, predict their behavior and consequently their effects on the dynamic response of structures, and understand complex behavior and properties of rubber-like materials respectively. In particular, the recent large-displacement theory on the stability of EB formulated by Forcellini and Kelly is validated with both numerical simulations using the finite element method, and experimental results set at the University of Antioquia in Medellin, Colombia. In this regard, this study reproduces the behavior of EB under compression loads and investigates the stability behavior with the three mentioned points of view.

Keywords: elastomeric bearings, experimental tests, numerical simulations, stability, large-displacement theory

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Authors: Omaima E. S. Mohammed, Amira A. A. Abdallah, Amal A. M. El Borady

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Background: Core stability training has recently attracted attention for improving muscle performance. Purpose: This study investigated the effect of beginners' core stability exercises on trunk active repositioning error at 30° and 60° trunk flexion. Methods: Forty healthy males participated in the study. They were divided into two equal groups; experimental “group I” and control “group II”. Their mean age, weight and height were 19.35±1.11 vs 20.45±1.64 years, 70.15±6.44 vs 72.45±6.91 kg and 174.7±7.02 vs 176.3±7.24 cm for group I vs group II. Data were collected using the Biodex Isokinetic system at an angular velocity of 60º/s. The participants were tested twice; before and after a 6-week period during which group I performed a core stability training program. Results: The Mixed 3-way ANOVA revealed significant increases (p<0.05) in the absolute error (AE) at 30˚ compared with 60˚ flexion in the pre-test condition of group I and II and the post-test condition of group II. Moreover, there were significant decreases (p<0.05) in the AE in the post-test condition compared with the pre-test in group I at both 30˚ and 60˚ flexion with no significant differences for group II. Finally, there were significant decreases (p<0.05) in the AE in group I compared with group II in the post-test condition at 30˚ and 60˚ flexion with no significant differences for the pre-test condition Interpretation/Conclusion: The improvement in trunk proprioception indicated by the decrease in the active repositioning error in the experimental group recommends including core stability training in the exercise programs that aim to improve trunk proprioception.

Keywords: core stability, isokinetic, trunk proprioception, biomechanics

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Authors: M. H. Korayem, Sh. Ameri, N. Yousefi Lademakhi

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To ensure the stability of closed-loop nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) within a finite horizon, there is a need for appropriate design terminal ingredients, which can be a time-consuming and challenging effort. Otherwise, in order to ensure the stability of the control system, it is necessary to consider an infinite predictive horizon. Increasing the prediction horizon increases computational demand and slows down the implementation of the method. In this study, a new technique has been proposed to ensure system stability without terminal ingredients. This technique has been employed in the design of the NMPC algorithm, leading to a reduction in the computational complexity of designing terminal ingredients and computational burden. The studied system is a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) subjected to non-holonomic constraints. Simulation has been investigated for two problems: trajectory tracking and adjustment mode.

Keywords: wheeled mobile robot, nonlinear model predictive control, stability, without terminal ingredients

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Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

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Authors: Soheib Fergani

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This paper concerns with the formal asymptotic stability guarantees, analysis and evaluation of a nonlinear controlled unmanned aerial vehicles (uav) for trajectory tracking purpose. As the system has been recognised as an under-actuated non linear system, the control strategy has been oriented towards a hierarchical control. The dynamics of the system and the mission purpose make it mandatory to provide an absolute proof of the vehicle stability during the maneuvers. For this sake, this work establishes the complete theoretical proof for an implementable control oriented strategy that asymptotically stabilizes (GAS and LISS) the system and has never been provided in previous works. The considered model is reorganized into two partly decoupled sub-systems. The concidered control strategy is presented into two stages: the first sub-system is controlled by a nonlinear backstepping controller that generates the desired control inputs to stabilize the second sub-system. This methodology is then applied to a harware in the loop uav simulator (SiMoDrones) that reproduces the realistic behaviour of the uav in an indoor environment has been performed to show the efficiency of the proposed strategy.

Keywords: UAV application, trajectory tracking, backstepping, sliding mode control, input to state stability, stability evaluation

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Authors: Phuong Nguyen

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Along with the ongoing energy transition, the electrical power system is getting more vulnerable with the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). By replacing a large amount of fossil fuel-based power plants with RES, the rotating mass of the power grid is decreasing drastically, which has been reported by a number of system operators. This leads to a huge challenge for operators to secure the operation of their grids in all-time horizon ranges, from sub-seconds to minutes and even hours. There is a need to revise the grid capabilities in dealing with transient (angle) stability and voltage dynamics. While the traditional approaches relied on deterministic scenarios (worst-case scenarios), there is also a need to cover a whole range of probabilities regarding a wide range of uncertainties coming from massive RES units. To contribute to handle these issues, this paper aims to focus on developing a new analytical approach for transient stability.

Keywords: transient stability, uncertainties, renewable energy sources, analytical approach

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Authors: Eke Bala Sophie Michelle

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The renewable resource character of NTFPs is an opportunity to its sustainability, this study analyzed the role of social capital in the adoption of sustainable management practices of NTFPs by households in the community forest (CF) Morikouali-ye. The analysis shows that 67% of households surveyed perceive the level of degradation of NTFPs in their CF as time passes and are close to 74% for adoption of sustainable management practices of NTFPs that are domestication, sustainable management of the CF, the logging ban trees and uprooting plants, etc. 26% refused to adopt these practices estimate that, at 39% it is better to promote logging in the CF. The estimated probit model shows that social capital through trust, solidarity and social inclusion significantly influences the probability of households to adopt sustainable NTFP management practices. In addition, age, education level and income from the sale of NTFPs have a significant impact on the probability of adoption. The probability of adoption increases with the level of education and confidence among households. So should they be animated by a spirit of solidarity and trust and not let a game of competition for sustainable management of NTFPs in their CF.

Keywords: community forest, social capital, NTFP, trust, solidarity, social inclusion, sustainable management

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Authors: Chang-Ho Lee, Seung-Hoon Lee, Myeong-Jin Park, Oh-Min Kwon

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This paper investigates improved stability criteria for sampled-data control of linear systems with disturbances and time-varying delays. Based on Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theory, delay-dependent conditions sufficient to ensure H∞ stability for the system are derived in the form of linear matrix inequalities(LMI). The effectiveness of the proposed method will be shown in numerical examples.

Keywords: sampled-data control system, Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, time delay-dependent, LMI, H∞ control

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Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability

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Authors: Watchareeporn Chaimongkol

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In this paper, we compare the statistical measures accuracy of composite forecasting model to estimate automobile customer demand in Thailand. A modified simple exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) forecasting model is built to estimate customer demand of passenger cars, instead of using information of historical sales data. Our model takes into account special characteristic of the Thai automobile market such as sales promotion, advertising and publicity, petrol price, and interest rate for loan. We evaluate our forecasting model by comparing forecasts with actual data using six accuracy measurements, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), geometric mean absolute error (GMAE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), median relative absolute error (MdRAE), and geometric mean relative absolute error (GMRAE).

Keywords: composite forecasting, simple exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrate moving average model selection, accuracy measurements

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Authors: Sampada Katekar, Namdeo Hedaoo

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Cold Bituminous Emulsion Mixtures (CBEMs) are generally produced by mixing unheated aggregate, binder and filler at ambient temperature. Cold bituminous emulsion mixtures have several environmental and cost-effective benefits. But CBEMs offer poor early life properties too and they require long curing time to achieve maximum strength. The main focus of this study is to overcome inferiority of CBEMs by incorporating Rice Husk Ash (RHA) and Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC). In this study, RHA and OPC are substituted for conventional mineral filler in an increased percentage from 0 to 3% with an increment of 1%. Marshall stability, retained stability and tensile strength tests were conducted to evaluate the enhancement in performance of CBEMs. The experimental results have shown that Marshall stability and tensile strength of CBEMs increased significantly by replacing the conventional mineral filler with RHA and OPC. The addition of RHA and OPC in CBEMs result in a reduction in moisture induced damages. However, stability and tensile strength values of RHA modified CBEMs are higher than that of OPC modified CBEMs.

Keywords: cold bituminous emulsion mixtures, Marshall stability test, ordinary Portland cement, rice husk ash

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Authors: Abdulfetah Shobole, Arif Karakas, Ugur Savas Selamogullari, Mustafa Baysal

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The concern of reducing emissions of Co2 from the fossil fuel generating units and using renewable energy sources increased in our world. Due this fact the integration ratio of wind farms to grid reached 20-30% in some part of our world. With increased integration of large MW scaled wind farms to the electric grid, the stability of the electrical system is a great concern. Thus, operators of power systems usually deman the wind turbine generators to obey the same rules as other traditional kinds of generation, such as thermal and hydro, i.e. not affect the grid stability. FACTS devices such as SVC or STATCOM are mostly installed close to the connection point of the wind farm to the grid in order to increase the stability especially during faulty conditions. In this paper wind farm with DFIG turbine type and STATCOM are dynamically modeled and simulated under three phase short circuit fault condition. The dynamic modeling is done by DigSILENT PowerFactory for the wind farm, STATCOM and the network. The simulation results show improvement of system stability near to the connection point of the STATCOM.

Keywords: DFIG wind turbine, statcom, dynamic modeling, digsilent

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Authors: Seyyed Abolhasan Naeini, Ehsan Azini

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In this paper, we consider the stability of a slope of 10 meters in silty gravel soils with modeling in the Geostudio Software.  we intend to use the parameters of the volumetric water content and suction dependent permeability and provides relationships and graphs using the parameters obtained from gradation tests and Atterberg’s limits. Also, different conditions of the soil will be investigated, including: checking the factor of safety and deformation rates and pore water pressure in drained, non-drained and unsaturated conditions, as well as the effect of reducing the water level on other parameters. For this purpose, it is assumed that the groundwater level is at a depth of 2 meters from the ground.  Then, with decreasing water level, the safety factor of slope stability was investigated and it was observed that with decreasing water level, the safety factor increased.

Keywords: slope stability analysis, factor of safety, matric suction, unsaturated silty gravel soil

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Authors: Haowen Xi

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We propose and solve exactly a class of non-linear generalization of the Black-Scholes process of stochastic differential equations describing price bubble and crashes dynamics. As a result of nonlinear positive feedback, the faster-than-exponential price positive growth (bubble forming) and negative price growth (crash forming) are found to be the power-law finite-time singularity in which bubbles and crashes price formation ending at finite critical time tc. While most literature on the market bubble and crash process focuses on the nonlinear positive feedback mechanism aspect, very few studies concern the noise level on the same process. The present work adds to the market bubble and crashes literature by studying the external sources noise influence on the critical time tc of the bubble forming and crashes forming. Two main results will be discussed: (1) the analytical expression of expected value of the critical time is found and unexpected critical slowing down due to the coupling external noise is predicted; (2) numerical simulations of the nonlinear stochastic equation is presented, and the probability distribution of Prob(tc) is found to be the inverse gamma function.

Keywords: bubble, crash, finite-time-singular, numerical simulation, price dynamics, stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Chuanzhi Chen, Wenjing Yu

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Parabolic cylindrical deployable antenna has the characteristics of wide cutting width, strong directivity, high gain, and easy automatic beam scanning. While, due to its large size, high flexibility, and strong coupling, the deployment process of parabolic cylindrical deployable antenna presents such problems as unsynchronized deployment speed, large local deformation and discontinuous switching of deployment state. A large deployable parabolic cylindrical antenna is taken as the research object, and the problem of unfolding process instability of cylindrical antenna is studied in the paper, which is caused by multiple factors such as multiple closed loops, elastic deformation, motion friction, and gap collision. Firstly, the multi-flexible system dynamics model of large-scale parabolic cylindrical antenna is established to study the influence of friction and elastic deformation on the stability of large multi-closed loop antenna. Secondly, the evaluation method of antenna expansion stability is studied, and the quantitative index of antenna configuration design is proposed to provide a theoretical basis for improving the overall performance of the antenna. Finally, through simulation analysis and experiment, the development dynamics and stability of large-scale parabolic cylindrical antennas are verified by in-depth analysis, and the principles for improving the stability of antenna deployment are summarized.

Keywords: multibody dynamics, expandable parabolic cylindrical antenna, stability, flexible deformation

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Authors: Maria A. Murtiati, Ancella A. Hermawan

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The objective of this study is to examine whether the firm’s eligibility to get a bank loan is influenced by earnings management. The earnings management is distinguished between accruals and real earnings management. Hypothesis testing is carried out with logistic regression model using sample of 285 companies listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange in 2010. The result provides evidence that a greater magnitude in accruals earnings management increases the firm’s probability to be eligible to get bank loan. In contrast, real earnings management through abnormal cash flow and abnormal discretionary expenses decrease firm’s probability to be eligible to get bank loan, while real management through abnormal production cost increases such probability. The result of this study suggests that if the earnings management is assumed to be opportunistic purpose, the accruals based earnings management can distort the banks credit analysis using financial statements. Real earnings management has more impact on the cash flows, and banks are very concerned on the firm’s cash flow ability. Therefore, this study indicates that banks are more able to detect real earnings management, except abnormal production cost in real earning management.

Keywords: discretionary accruals, real earning management, bank loan, credit worthiness

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Authors: Ali Sagiroglu, Sema Noyan Alacali, Guray Arslan

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This paper presents a study on the influence of the safety factor in the concrete contribution to shear strength of high-strength concrete (HSC) beams according to TS500. In TS500, the contribution of concrete to shear strength is obtained by reducing diagonal cracking strength with a safety factor of 0.8. It was investigated that the coefficient of 0.8 considered in determining the contribution of concrete to the shear strength corresponds to which value of failure probability. Also, the changes in the reduction factor depending on different coefficients of variation of concrete were examined.

Keywords: reinforced concrete, beam, shear strength, failure probability, safety factor

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Authors: Jitendra Singh, Vivek Kumar

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In this paper, a susceptible infective susceptible mathematical model is proposed and analyzed where the migration of human population is given by migration function. It is assumed that the disease is transmitted by direct contact of susceptible and infective populations with constant contact rate. The equilibria and their stability are studied by using the stability theory of ordinary differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that the spread of infectious disease increases when human population immigration increases in the habitat but it decreases if emigration increases.

Keywords: SIS (Susceptible Infective Susceptible) model, migration function, susceptible, stability

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Authors: Rupam Saikia, Ashim Kanti Dey

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Sonapur is an intense hilly region on the border of Assam and Meghalaya lying in North-East India and is very near to a seismic fault named as Dauki besides which makes the region seismically active. Besides, these recently two earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 and 6.9 have struck North-East India in January and April 2016. Also, the slope concerned for this study is adjacent to NH 44 which for a long time has been a sole important connecting link to the states of Manipur and Mizoram along with some parts of Assam and so has been a cause of considerable loss to life and property since past decades as there has been several recorded incidents of landslide, road-blocks, etc. mostly during the rainy season which comes into news. Based on this issue this paper reports a static and dynamic slope stability analysis of Sonapur which has been carried out in MIDAS GTS NX. The slope being highly unreachable due to terrain and thick vegetation in-situ test was not feasible considering the current scope available so disturbed soil sample was collected from the site for the determination of strength parameters. The strength parameters were so determined for varying relative density with further variation in water content. The slopes were analyzed considering plane strain condition for three slope heights of 5 m, 10 m and 20 m which were then further categorized based on slope angles 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 considering the possible extent of steepness. Initially static analysis under dry state was performed then considering the worst case that can develop during rainy season the slopes were analyzed for fully saturated condition along with partial degree of saturation with an increase in the waterfront. Furthermore, dynamic analysis was performed considering the El-Centro Earthquake which had a magnitude of 6.7 and peak ground acceleration of 0.3569g at 2.14 sec for the slope which were found to be safe during static analysis under both dry and fully saturated condition. Some of the conclusions were slopes with inclination above 40 onwards were found to be highly vulnerable for slopes of height 10 m and above even under dry static condition. Maximum horizontal displacement showed an exponential increase with an increase in inclination from 30 to 70. The vulnerability of the slopes was seen to be further increased during rainy season as even slopes of minimal steepness of 30 for height 20 m was seen to be on the verge of failure. Also, during dynamic analysis slopes safe during static analysis were found to be highly vulnerable. Lastly, as a part of the study a comparative study on Strength Reduction Method (SRM) versus Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) was also carried out and some of the advantages and disadvantages were figured out.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, factor of safety, slope stability, strength reduction method

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Authors: Matthew Morey, Aron Gottesman

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This paper examines the relationship between mutual fund governance and the activeness of equity mutual funds. Using a fund’s corporate culture as a proxy for its governance and controlling for other variables, we find that funds with the better governance are significantly more active than other funds. Further, we find the probability of finding a highly active fund increases significantly as the governance of the fund improves. We also find some evidence that the probability of finding a closet index fund increases as the governance of the fund declines. These results demonstrate that mutual fund governance should be considered carefully when making mutual fund investment decisions.

Keywords: active, share, mutual funds, economics

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Authors: Iyai Davies, Olivier L. C. Haas

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In this paper, the problem of stability and stabilization for neutral delay-differential systems with infinite delay is investigated. Using Lyapunov method, new delay-independent sufficient condition for the stability of neutral systems with infinite delay is obtained in terms of linear matrix inequality (LMI). Memory-less state feedback controllers are then designed for the stabilization of the system using the feasible solution of the resulting LMI, which are easily solved using any optimization algorithms. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results of the proposed methods.

Keywords: infinite delays, Lyapunov method, linear matrix inequality, neutral systems, stability

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Authors: Cesar Vazquez-Gonzalez, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Leonardo Ortiz-Lozano, Patricia Moreno-Casasola, Alejandro Granados-Barba

Abstract:

In the last twenty years, academic and scientific literature has been focused on understanding the processes and factors of coastal social-ecological systems vulnerability and resilience. Some scholars argue that resilience and vulnerability are isolated concepts due to their epistemological origin, while others note the existence of a strong resilience-vulnerability relationship. Here we present an ordinal logistic regression model based on the analytical framework about dynamic resilience-vulnerability interaction along adaptive cycle of complex systems and disasters process phases (during, recovery and learning). In this way, we demonstrate that 1) during the disturbance, absorptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to diminish the damage, and exposure sets the thresholds about the amount of disturbance that households can absorb, 2) at recovery, absorptive capacity and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to recovery faster (resilience as an outcome) from damage, and 3) at learning, adaptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) explains the probability of households adaptation measures based on the enhancement of physical capital. As a result, during the disturbance phase, exposure has the greatest weight in the probability of capital’s damage, and households with absorptive and external response capacity elements absorbed the impact of floods in comparison with households without these elements. At the recovery phase, households with absorptive and external response capacity showed a faster recovery on their capital; however, the damage sets the thresholds of recovery time. More importantly, diversity in financial capital increases the probability of recovering other capital, but it becomes a liability so that the probability of recovering the household finances in a longer time increases. At learning-reorganizing phase, adaptation (modifications to the house) increases the probability of having less damage on physical capital; however, it is not very relevant. As conclusion, resilience is an outcome but also core of attributes that interacts with vulnerability along the adaptive cycle and disaster process phases. Absorptive capacity can diminish the damage experienced by floods; however, when exposure overcomes thresholds, both absorptive and external response capacity are not enough. In the same way, absorptive and external response capacity diminish the recovery time of capital, but the damage sets the thresholds in where households are not capable of recovering their capital.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, capital, floods, recovery-learning, social-ecological systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Benmansour Nassima, Benmansour Souheyla

Abstract:

The appropriate integration of reward processing and decision making provided by the environment is vital for behavioural success and individuals’ well being in everyday life. Functional neurological investigation has already provided an inclusive image on affective and emotional (motivational) processing in the healthy human brain and has recently focused its interest also on the assessment of brain function in anxious and depressed individuals. This article offers an overview on the theoretical approaches that relate emotion and decision-making, and spotlights investigation with anxious or depressed individuals to reveal how emotions can interfere with decision-making. This research aims at incorporating the emotional structure based on response and stimulation with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. It seeks to show how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions bear out that alterations of decision-making can be considered in terms of altered probability and value subtraction. The utmost objective is to critically determine if the probabilistic representation of belief affords could be a critical approach to scrutinize alterations in probability and value representation in subjective with anxiety and depression, and draw round the general implications of this approach.

Keywords: decision-making, motivation, alteration, reward processing, response selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 443