Search results for: explanatory modeling

Authors: Ronit Chakraborty, Sugata Banerji

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There has been a marked increase in the reported prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) among children in the US over the past two decades. This research has analyzed the growth in state-level ASD prevalence against 45 different potentially explanatory factors, including socio-economic, demographic, healthcare, public policy, and political factors. The goal was to understand if these factors have adequate predictive power in modeling the differential growth in ASD prevalence across various states and if they do, which factors are the most influential. The key findings of this study include (1) the confirmation that the chosen feature set has considerable power in predicting the growth in ASD prevalence, (2) the identification of the most influential predictive factors, (3) given the nature of the most influential predictive variables, an indication that a considerable portion of the reported ASD prevalence differentials across states could be attributable to over and under diagnosis, and (4) identification of Florida as a key outlier state pointing to a potential under-diagnosis of ASD there.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, clustering, machine learning, predictive modeling

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Authors: Guilhermina Torrao

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An extensive number of studies have been conducted to determine the factors which influence crash injury risk (CIR); however, uncertainties inherent to selected variables have been neglected. A review of existing literature is required to not only obtain an overview of the variables and measures but also ascertain the implications when comparing studies without a systematic view of variable taxonomy. Therefore, the aim of this literature review is to examine and report on peer-reviewed studies in the field of crash analysis and to understand the implications of broad variations in variable selection in CIR analysis. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the variance in variable selection and classification when modeling injury risk involving occupants of light vehicles by presenting an analytical review of the literature. Based on data collected from 64 journal publications reported over the past 21 years, the analytical review discusses the variables selected by each study across an organized list of predictors for CIR analysis and provides a better understanding of the contribution of accident and vehicle factors to injuries acquired by occupants of light vehicles. A cross-comparison analysis demonstrates that almost half the studies (48%) did not consider vehicle design specifications (e.g., vehicle weight), whereas, for those that did, the vehicle age/model year was the most selected explanatory variable used by 41% of the literature studies. For those studies that included speed risk factor in their analyses, the majority (64%) used the legal speed limit data as a ‘proxy’ of vehicle speed at the moment of a crash, imposing limitations for CIR analysis and modeling. Despite the proven efficiency of airbags in minimizing injury impact following a crash, only 22% of studies included airbag deployment data. A major contribution of this study is to highlight the uncertainty linked to explanatory variable selection and identify opportunities for improvements when performing future studies in the field of road injuries.

Keywords: crash, exploratory, injury, risk, variables, vehicle

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Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

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Authors: Bry X., Trottier C., Mortier F., Cornu G., Verron T.

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We address component-based regularization of a Multivariate Generalized Linear Model (MGLM). A set of random responses Y is assumed to depend, through a GLM, on a set X of explanatory variables, as well as on a set T of additional covariates. X is partitioned into R conceptually homogeneous blocks X1, ... , XR , viewed as explanatory themes. Variables in each Xr are assumed many and redundant. Thus, Generalised Linear Regression (GLR) demands regularization with respect to each Xr. By contrast, variables in T are assumed selected so as to demand no regularization. Regularization is performed searching each Xr for an appropriate number of orthogonal components that both contribute to model Y and capture relevant structural information in Xr. We propose a very general criterion to measure structural relevance (SR) of a component in a block, and show how to take SR into account within a Fisher-scoring-type algorithm in order to estimate the model. We show how to deal with mixed-type explanatory variables. The method, named THEME-SCGLR, is tested on simulated data.

Keywords: Component-Model, Fisher Scoring Algorithm, GLM, PLS Regression, SCGLR, SEER, THEME

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Authors: Taisiia Gorshkova

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Since the 1980s, spatial correlation models have been used more often to model regional indicators. An increasingly popular method for studying regional indicators is modeling taking into account spatial relationships between objects that are part of the same economic zone. In 2000s the new class of model – spatial vector autoregressions was developed. The main difference between standard and spatial vector autoregressions is that in the spatial VAR (SpVAR), the values of indicators at time t may depend on the values of explanatory variables at the same time t in neighboring regions and on the values of explanatory variables at time t-k in neighboring regions. Thus, VAR is a special case of SpVAR in the absence of spatial lags, and the spatial panel data model is a special case of spatial VAR in the absence of time lags. Two specifications of SpVAR were applied to Russian regional data for 2000-2017. The values of GRP and regional CPI are used as endogenous variables. The lags of GRP, CPI and the unemployment rate were used as explanatory variables. For comparison purposes, the standard VAR without spatial correlation was used as “naïve” model. In the first specification of SpVAR the unemployment rate and the values of depending variables, GRP and CPI, in neighboring regions at the same moment of time t were included in equations for GRP and CPI respectively. To account for the values of indicators in neighboring regions, the adjacency weight matrix is used, in which regions with a common sea or land border are assigned a value of 1, and the rest - 0. In the second specification the values of depending variables in neighboring regions at the moment of time t were replaced by these values in the previous time moment t-1. According to the results obtained, when inflation and GRP of neighbors are added into the model both inflation and GRP are significantly affected by their previous values, and inflation is also positively affected by an increase in unemployment in the previous period and negatively affected by an increase in GRP in the previous period, which corresponds to economic theory. GRP is not affected by either the inflation lag or the unemployment lag. When the model takes into account lagged values of GRP and inflation in neighboring regions, the results of inflation modeling are practically unchanged: all indicators except the unemployment lag are significant at a 5% significance level. For GRP, in turn, GRP lags in neighboring regions also become significant at a 5% significance level. For both spatial and “naïve” VARs the RMSE were calculated. The minimum RMSE are obtained via SpVAR with lagged explanatory variables. Thus, according to the results of the study, it can be concluded that SpVARs can accurately model both the actual values of macro indicators (particularly CPI and GRP) and the general situation in the regions

Keywords: forecasting, regional data, spatial econometrics, vector autoregression

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Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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Fuzzy regression models are useful for investigating the relationship between explanatory variables and responses in fuzzy environments. To overcome the deficiencies of previous models and increase the explanatory power of fuzzy data, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is applied to determine representative crisp regression coefficients. A fuzzy regression model is constructed based on the modified dissemblance index (MDI), which can precisely measure the actual total error. Compared with previous studies based on the proposed MDI and distance criterion, the results from commonly used test examples show that the proposed fuzzy linear regression model has higher explanatory power and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: dissemblance index, fuzzy linear regression, graded mean integration, mathematical programming

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Authors: Zunaidah Ab Hasan, Azhana Othman, Abd Halim Mohd Noor, Nor Shahrina Mohd Rafien

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This study highlights some of the factors of the poor in Malaysia by household and individual level. The discussion covers the demographic, economic and social aspects. The data is derived from the National Databank of Poverty Malaysia (eKasih) for the year of 2013. The explanatory analysis is used to analyse factor of poverty in Malaysia specifically in Malacca. The evidence confirms that male are prone to be poor. For the ethnic, majority of the poor are Malays. The number of dependency and unskilled head of household also contributes to the factors to be poor. Despite that health and physical condition condition does not affect the household head is likely to be poor. Outcome of this study hope to provide guideline that would beneficial to various stakeholders such as zakat institutions, policy makers, welfare department and other agencies related. This will lead to better standard of living as envisioned in the fourth National Key Result Areas (NKRAs).

Keywords: factors of poverty, eKasih, explanatory analysis, welfare department

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Authors: Dasom Kim, William Xiu Shun Wong, Yoonjin Hyun, Donghoon Lee, Minji Paek, Sungho Byun, Namgyu Kim

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There have been many researches on document classification for classifying voluminous documents automatically. Through document classification, we can assign a specific category to each unlabeled document on the basis of various machine learning algorithms. However, providing labeled documents manually requires considerable time and effort. To overcome the limitations, the semi-supervised learning which uses unlabeled document as well as labeled documents has been invented. However, traditional document classifiers, regardless of supervised or semi-supervised ones, cannot sufficiently explain the reason or the process of the classification. Thus, in this paper, we proposed a methodology to visualize major topics and class components of each document. We believe that our methodology for visualizing topics and classes of each document can enhance the reliability and explanatory power of document classifiers.

Keywords: data mining, document classifier, text mining, topic modeling

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Authors: Ho-Won Jung, Donghun Lee, Hyung-Jin Kim

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Predictive analytics (data analysis) uses a subset of measurements (the features, predictor, or independent variable) to predict another measurement (the outcome, target, or dependent variable) on a single person or unit. It applies empirical methods in statistics, operations research, and machine learning to predict the future, or otherwise unknown events or outcome on a single or person or unit, based on patterns in data. Most analyses of metabolic syndrome are not predictive analytics but statistical explanatory studies that build a proposed model (theory building) and then validate metabolic syndrome predictors hypothesized (theory testing). A proposed theoretical model forms with causal hypotheses that specify how and why certain empirical phenomena occur. Predictive analytics and explanatory modeling have their own territories in analysis. However, predictive analytics can perform vital roles in explanatory studies, i.e., scientific activities such as theory building, theory testing, and relevance assessment. In the context, this study is to demonstrate how to use our predictive analytics to support theory building (i.e., hypothesis generation). For the purpose, this study utilized a big data predictive analytics platform TM based on a co-occurrence graph. The co-occurrence graph is depicted with nodes (e.g., items in a basket) and arcs (direct connections between two nodes), where items in a basket are fully connected. A cluster is a collection of fully connected items, where the specific group of items has co-occurred in several rows in a data set. Clusters can be ranked using importance metrics, such as node size (number of items), frequency, surprise (observed frequency vs. expected), among others. The size of a graph can be represented by the numbers of nodes and arcs. Since the size of a co-occurrence graph does not depend directly on the number of observations (transactions), huge amounts of transactions can be represented and processed efficiently. For a demonstration, a total of 13,254 metabolic syndrome training data is plugged into the analytics platform to generate rules (potential hypotheses). Each observation includes 31 predictors, for example, associated with sociodemographic, habits, and activities. Some are intentionally included to get predictive analytics insights on variable selection such as cancer examination, house type, and vaccination. The platform automatically generates plausible hypotheses (rules) without statistical modeling. Then the rules are validated with an external testing dataset including 4,090 observations. Results as a kind of inductive reasoning show potential hypotheses extracted as a set of association rules. Most statistical models generate just one estimated equation. On the other hand, a set of rules (many estimated equations from a statistical perspective) in this study may imply heterogeneity in a population (i.e., different subpopulations with unique features are aggregated). Next step of theory development, i.e., theory testing, statistically tests whether a proposed theoretical model is a plausible explanation of a phenomenon interested in. If hypotheses generated are tested statistically with several thousand observations, most of the variables will become significant as the p-values approach zero. Thus, theory validation needs statistical methods utilizing a part of observations such as bootstrap resampling with an appropriate sample size.

Keywords: explanatory modeling, metabolic syndrome, predictive analytics, theory building

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Authors: Qiang Bu

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This paper compares the explanatory power of sentiment level and sentiment shock. The preliminary test results show that sentiment shock plays a more significant role in explaining stocks returns, including the raw return and abnormal return. We also find that sentiment shock beta has a higher statistical significance than sentiment beta. These finding sheds new light on the relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns.

Keywords: sentiment level, sentiment shock, explanatory power, abnormal stock return, beta

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Authors: Chil-Chyuan Kuo, Chen-Hsuan Tsai

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This study presents a cost-effective approach for rapid fabricating modeling platforms utilized in fused deposition modeling system. A small-batch production of modeling platforms about 20 pieces can be obtained economically through silicone rubber mold using vacuum casting without applying the plastic injection molding. The air venting systems is crucial for fabricating modeling platform using vacuum casting. Modeling platforms fabricated can be used for building rapid prototyping model after sandblasting. This study offers industrial value because it has both time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: vacuum casting, fused deposition modeling, modeling platform, sandblasting, surface roughness

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Authors: Seongsoo Lee

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IP reuse is an effective design methodology for modern SoC design to reduce effort and time. However, description and modeling methods of IP interfaces are different due to different IP designers. In this paper, standardized description and modeling methods of IP interfaces are proposed. It consists of 11 items such as IP information, model provision, data type, description level, interface information, port information, signal information, protocol information, modeling level, modeling information, and source file. The proposed description and modeling methods enables easy understanding, simulation, verification, and modification in IP reuse.

Keywords: interface, standardization, description, modeling, semiconductor IP

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Authors: Ayse Ozturk

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The study extends the prior research on modeling competencies by positioning students’ cognitive and language resources as the fundamentals for pursuing their own inquiry and expression lines through mathematical modeling. This strategy aims to answer the question that guides this study, “How do students’ group approaches to modeling tasks affect their modeling competencies over a unit of instruction?” Six bilingual tenth-grade students worked on open-ended modeling problems along with the content focused on quantities over six weeks. Each group was found to have a unique cognitive approach for solving these problems. Three different problem-solving strategies affected how the groups’ modeling competencies changed. The results provide evidence that the discussion around groups’ solutions, coupled with their reflections, advances group interpreting and validating competencies in the mathematical modeling process

Keywords: cognition, collective learning, mathematical modeling competencies, problem-solving

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

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Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error

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Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov

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The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever-increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.

Keywords: business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models

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Authors: Jian Zheng, Yoshiyasu Takahashi, Yuichi Kobayashi, Tatsuhiro Sato

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In the study, we present a conceptual framework for developing a scheduling system that can generate self-explanatory and easy-understanding schedules. To this end, a user interface is conceived to help planners record factors that are considered crucial in scheduling, as well as internal and external sources relating to such factors. A hybrid approach combining machine learning and constraint programming is developed to generate schedules and the corresponding factors, and accordingly display them on the user interface. Effects of the proposed system on scheduling are discussed, and it is expected that scheduling efficiency and system understandability will be improved, compared with previous scheduling systems.

Keywords: constraint programming, factors considered in scheduling, machine learning, scheduling system

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Authors: Jay Xiong, Li Lin

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Existing software modeling and visualization approaches using UML are outdated, which are outcomes of reductionism and the superposition principle that the whole of a system is the sum of its parts, so that with them all tasks of software modeling and visualization are performed linearly, partially, and locally. This paper introduces revolutionary solutions for modeling and visualization of complex software systems, which make complex software systems much easy to understand, test, and maintain. The solutions are based on complexity science, offering holistic, automatic, dynamic, virtual, and executable approaches about thousand times more efficient than the traditional ones.

Keywords: complex systems, software maintenance, software modeling, software visualization

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Authors: S. A. Che Osmi, W. M. F. W. Ishak, S. F. Che Osmi

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Nowadays the issues of water quality and water pollution have been a major problem across the country. A lot of management attempt to develop their own TMDL database in order to control the river pollution. Over the past decade, the mathematical modeling has been used as the tool for the development of TMDL. This paper presents the application of water quality modeling to develop the total maximum daily load (TMDL) information. To obtain the reliable database of TMDL, the appropriate water quality modeling should choose based on the available data provided. This paper will discuss on the use of several water quality modeling such as QUAL2E, QUAL2K, and EFDC to develop TMDL. The attempts to integrate several modeling are also being discussed in this paper. Based on this paper, the differences in the application of water quality modeling based on their properties such as one, two or three dimensional are showing their ability to develop the modeling of TMDL database.

Keywords: TMDL, water quality modeling, QUAL2E, EFDC

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Authors: Rajeshwar Singh

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The presence of multicollinearity is common in handling with several explanatory variables simultaneously due to exhibiting a linear relationship among them. A great problem arises in understanding the impact of explanatory variables on the dependent variable. Thus, the method of least squares estimation gives inexact estimates. In this case, it is advised to detect its presence first before proceeding further. Using the ridge regression degree of its occurrence is reduced but principal components regression gives good estimates in this situation. This paper discusses well-known techniques of the ridge and principal components regressions and applies to get the estimates of coefficients by both techniques. In addition to it, this paper also discusses the conflicting claim on the discovery of the method of ridge regression based on available documents.

Keywords: conflicting claim on credit of discovery of ridge regression, multicollinearity, principal components and ridge regressions, variance inflation factor

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Authors: Zoltan Theisz, Gergely Mezei

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Modern industrial automation relies on service oriented concepts of Internet of Things (IoT) device modeling in order to provide a flexible and extendable environment for service meta-repository. However, state-of-the-art meta-modeling techniques prefer design-time modeling, which results in a heavy usage of class sometimes unnecessary static subtyping. Although this approach benefits from clear-cut object-oriented design principles, it also seals the model repository for further dynamic extensions. In this paper, a dynamic multi-level modeling approach is introduced that enables dynamic subtyping through a more relaxed partial instantiation mechanism. The approach is demonstrated on a simple sensor network example.

Keywords: meta-modeling, dynamic subtyping, DMLA, industrial automation, arrowhead

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama

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Market-transaction price for housing is the main criteria for determining municipality taxes and is determined and announced on an annual basis. Of course, there is a discrepancy between the actual value of transactions in the Bureau of Finance (P for short) or municipality (P´ for short) and the real price on the market (P˝). The present research aims to determine the real price of housing in the metropolis of Mashhad and to pinpoint the price gap with those of the aforementioned apparatuses and identify the factors affecting it. In order to reach this practical objective, Automatic Linear Modeling, which calls for an explanatory research, was utilized. The population of the research consisted of all the residential units in Mashhad, from which 317 residential units were randomly selected. Through cluster sampling, out of the 170 income blocks defined by the municipality, three blocks form high-income (Kosar), middle-income (Elahieh), and low-income (Seyyedi) strata were surveyed using questionnaires during February and March of 2015 and the information regarding the price and specifications of residential units were gathered. In order to estimate the effect of various factors on the price, the relationship between independent variables (8 variables) and the dependent variable of the housing price was calculated using Automatic Linear Modeling in SPSS. The results revealed that the average for housing price index is 788$ per square meter, compared to the Bureau of Finance’s prices which is 10$ and that of municipality’s which is 378$. Correlation coefficient among dependent and independent variables was calculated to be R²=0.81. Out of the eight initial variables, three were omitted. The most influential factor affecting the housing prices is the quality of Quality of construction (Ordinary, Full, Luxury). The least important factor influencing the housing prices is the variable of number of sides. The price gap between low-income (Seyyedi) and middle-income (Elahieh) districts was not confirmed via One-Way ANOVA but their gap with the high-income district (Kosar) was confirmed. It is suggested that city be divided into two low-income and high-income sections, as opposed three, in terms of housing prices.

Keywords: automatic linear modeling, housing prices, Mashhad, Iran

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Authors: Amanbek Jainakov, Abdikerim Kurbanaliev

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The work presents the results of mathematical modeling of large-scale flows in areas with a complex topographic relief. The Reynolds-averaged Navier—Stokes equations constitute the basis of the three-dimensional unsteady modeling. The well-known Volume of Fluid method implemented in the solver interFoam of the open package OpenFOAM 2.3 is used to track the free-boundary location. The mathematical model adequacy is checked by comparing with experimental data. The efficiency of the applied technology is illustrated by the example of modeling the breakthrough of the dams of the Andijan (Uzbekistan) and Papan (near the Osh town, Kyrgyzstan) reservoir.

Keywords: three-dimensional modeling, free boundary, the volume-of-fluid method, dam break, flood, OpenFOAM

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Authors: Beatriz Delgado

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Although social anxiety is one of the most prevalent disorders in adolescents and causes considerable difficulties and social distress in those with the disorder, to date very few studies have explored the impact of social anxiety on academic adjustment in student populations. The aim of this study was analyze the effect of social anxiety on school functioning in Secondary Education. Specifically, we examined the relationship between social anxiety and self-concept, academic goals, causal attributions, intellectual aptitudes, and learning strategies, personality traits, and academic performance, with the purpose of creating a causal-explanatory model of academic performance. The sample consisted of 2,022 students in the seven to ten grades of Compulsory Secondary Education in Spain (M = 13.18; SD = 1.35; 51.1% boys). We found that: (a) social anxiety has a direct positive effect on internal attributional style, and a direct negative effect on self-concept. Social anxiety also has an indirect negative effect on internal causal attributions; (b) prior performance (first academic trimester) exerts a direct positive effect on intelligence, achievement goals, academic self-concept, and final academic performance (third academic trimester), and a direct negative effect on internal causal attributions. It also has an indirect positive effect on causal attributions (internal and external), learning goals, achievement goals, and study strategies; (c) intelligence has a direct positive effect on learning goals and academic performance (third academic trimester); (d) academic self-concept has a direct positive effect on internal and external attributional style. Also, has an indirect effect on learning goals, achievement goals, and learning strategies; (e) internal attributional style has a direct positive effect on learning strategies and learning goals. Has a positive but indirect effect on achievement goals and learning strategies; (f) external attributional style has a direct negative effect on learning strategies and learning goals and a direct positive effect on internal causal attributions; (g) learning goals have direct positive effect on learning strategies and achievement goals. The structural equation model fit the data well (CFI = .91; RMSEA = .04), explaining 93.8% of the variance in academic performance. Finally, we emphasize that the new causal-explanatory model proposed in the present study represents a significant contribution in that it includes social anxiety as an explanatory variable of cognitive-motivational constructs.

Keywords: academic performance, adolescence, cognitive-motivational variables, social anxiety

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Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

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The primary aim of the presentation is to try to model border traffic and, at the same time to explain on which economic variables the intensity of border traffic depended in the long term. For this purpose, long series of traffic data on the Polish borders were used. Models were estimated for three variants of explanatory variables: a) for total arrivals and departures (total movement of Poles and foreigners), b) for arrivals and departures of Poles, and c) for arrivals and departures of foreigners. Each of the defined explanatory variables in the models appeared as the logarithm of the natural number of persons. Data from 1994-2017 were used for modeling (for internal Schengen borders for the years 1994-2007). Information on the number of people arriving in and leaving Poland was collected for a total of 303 border crossings. On the basis of the analyses carried out, it was found that one of the main factors determining border traffic is generally differences in the level of economic development (GDP) and the condition of the economy (level of unemployment) and the degree of border permeability. Also statistically significant for border traffic are differences in the prices of goods (fuels, tobacco, and alcohol products) and services (mainly basic ones, e.g., hairdressing services). Such a relationship exists mainly on the eastern border (border traffic determined largely by differences in the prices of goods) and on the border with Germany (in the first analysed period, border traffic was determined mainly by the prices of goods, later - after Poland's accession to the EU and the Schengen area - also by the prices of services). The models also confirmed differences in the set of factors shaping the volume and structure of border traffic on the Polish borders resulting from general geopolitical conditions, with the year 2007 being an important caesura, after which the classical population mobility factors became visible. The results obtained were additionally related to changes in traffic that occurred as a result of the CPOVID-19 pandemic and as a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Keywords: border, modal structure, transport, Ukraine

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Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: Hycham Aboutaleb, Bruno Monsuez

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Current systems complexity has reached a degree that requires addressing conception and design issues while taking into account all the necessary aspects. Therefore, one of the main challenges is the way complex systems are specified and designed. The exponential growing effort, cost and time investment of complex systems in modeling phase emphasize the need for a paradigm, a framework and a environment to handle the system model complexity. For that, it is necessary to understand the expectations of the human user of the model and his limits. This paper presents a generic framework for designing complex systems, highlights the requirements a system model needs to fulfill to meet human user expectations, and defines the refined functional as well as non functional requirements modeling tools needs to meet to be useful in model-based system engineering.

Keywords: system modeling, modeling language, modeling requirements, framework

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Authors: I. D. Arroyo

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This article seeks to integrate different concepts from contemporary software engineering with an agile development approach. We seek to clarify some definitions and uses, we make a difference between the Systems Development Life Cycle (SDLC) and the methodologies, we differentiate the types of frameworks such as methodological, philosophical and behavioral, standards and documentation. We define relationships based on the documentation of the development process through formal and ad hoc models, and we define the usefulness of using DevOps and Agile Modeling as integrative methodologies of principles and best practices.

Keywords: methodologies, modeling languages, agile modeling, UML

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Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh

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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.

Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting

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Authors: Alireza Dantism

Abstract:

Presently, describing the function of a protein sequence is one of the most common problems in biology. Usually, this problem can be facilitated by studying the three-dimensional structure of proteins. In the absence of a protein structure, comparative modeling often provides a useful three-dimensional model of the protein that is dependent on at least one known protein structure. Comparative modeling predicts the three-dimensional structure of a given protein sequence (target) mainly based on its alignment with one or more proteins of known structure (templates). Comparative modeling consists of four main steps 1. Similarity between the target sequence and at least one known template structure 2. Alignment of target sequence and template(s) 3. Build a model based on alignment with the selected template(s). 4. Prediction of model errors 5. Optimization of the built model There are many computer programs and web servers that automate the comparative modeling process. One of the most important advantages of these servers is that it makes comparative modeling available to both experts and non-experts, and they can easily do their own modeling without the need for programming knowledge, but some other experts prefer using programming knowledge and do their modeling manually because by doing this they can maximize the accuracy of their modeling. In this study, a web-based tool has been designed to predict the tertiary structure of proteins using PHP and Python programming languages. This tool is called EasyModel. EasyModel can receive, according to the user's inputs, the desired unknown sequence (which we know as the target) in this study, the protein sequence file (template), etc., which also has a percentage of similarity with the primary sequence, and its third structure Predict the unknown sequence and present the results in the form of graphs and constructed protein files.

Keywords: structural bioinformatics, protein tertiary structure prediction, modeling, comparative modeling, modeller

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 598