Search results for: exact methods
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3586

Search results for: exact methods

3586 An Approximation Method for Exact Boundary Controllability of Euler-Bernoulli

Authors: A. Khernane, N. Khelil, L. Djerou

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to study the numerical implementation of the Hilbert uniqueness method for the exact boundary controllability of Euler-Bernoulli beam equation. This study may be difficult. This will depend on the problem under consideration (geometry, control, and dimension) and the numerical method used. Knowledge of the asymptotic behaviour of the control governing the system at time T may be useful for its calculation. This idea will be developed in this study. We have characterized as a first step the solution by a minimization principle and proposed secondly a method for its resolution to approximate the control steering the considered system to rest at time T.

Keywords: boundary control, exact controllability, finite difference methods, functional optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 317
3585 Exact Solutions of Discrete Sine-Gordon Equation

Authors: Chao-Qing Dai

Abstract:

Two families of exact travelling solutions for the discrete sine-Gordon equation are constructed based on the variable-coefficient Jacobian elliptic function method and different transformations. When the modulus of Jacobian elliptic function solutions tends to 1, soliton solutions can be obtained. Some soliton solutions degenerate into the known solutions in literatures. Moreover, dynamical properties of exact solutions are investigated. Our analysis and results may have potential values for certain applications in modern nonlinear science and textile engineering.

Keywords: exact solutions, variable-coefficient Jacobian elliptic function method, discrete sine-Gordon equation, dynamical behaviors

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3584 DSPIC30F6010A Control for 12/8 Switched Reluctance Motor

Authors: Yang Zhou, Chen Hao, Ma Xiaoping

Abstract:

This paper briefly mentions the micro controller unit, and then goes into details about the exact regulations for SRM. Firstly, it proposes the main driving state control for motor and the importance of the motor position sensor. For different speed, the controller will choice various styles such as voltage chopper control, angle position control and current chopper control for which owns its advantages and disadvantages. Combining the strengths of the three discrepant methods, the main control chip will intelligently select the best performing control depending on the load and speed demand. Then the exact flow diagram is showed in paper. At last, an experimental platform is established to verify the correctness of the proposed theory.

Keywords: switched reluctance motor, dspic microcontroller, current chopper

Procedia PDF Downloads 398
3583 Energy States of Some Diatomic Molecules: Exact Quantization Rule Approach

Authors: Babatunde J. Falaye

Abstract:

In this study, we obtain the approximate analytical solutions of the radial Schrödinger equation for the Deng-Fan diatomic molecular potential by using exact quantization rule approach. The wave functions have been expressed by hypergeometric functions via the functional analysis approach. An extension to rotational-vibrational energy eigenvalues of some diatomic molecules are also presented. It is shown that the calculated energy levels are in good agreement with the ones obtained previously E_nl-D (shifted Deng-Fan).

Keywords: Schrödinger equation, exact quantization rule, functional analysis, Deng-Fan potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 468
3582 Exact and Approximate Controllability of Nuclear Dynamics Using Bilinear Controls

Authors: Ramdas Sonawane, Mahaveer Gadiya

Abstract:

The control problem associated with nuclear dynamics is represented by nonlinear integro-differential equation with additive controls. To control chain reaction, certain amount of neutrons is added into (or withdrawn out of) chamber as and when required. It is not realistic. So, we can think of controlling the reactor dynamics by bilinear control, which enters the system as coefficient of state. In this paper, we study the approximate and exact controllability of parabolic integro-differential equation controlled by bilinear control with non-homogeneous boundary conditions in bounded domain. We prove the existence of control and propose an explicit control strategy.

Keywords: approximate control, exact control, bilinear control, nuclear dynamics, integro-differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 412
3581 A Parallel Algorithm for Solving the PFSP on the Grid

Authors: Samia Kouki

Abstract:

Solving NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems by exact search methods, such as Branch-and-Bound, may degenerate to complete enumeration. For that reason, exact approaches limit us to solve only small or moderate size problem instances, due to the exponential increase in CPU time when problem size increases. One of the most promising ways to reduce significantly the computational burden of sequential versions of Branch-and-Bound is to design parallel versions of these algorithms which employ several processors. This paper describes a parallel Branch-and-Bound algorithm called GALB for solving the classical permutation flowshop scheduling problem as well as its implementation on a Grid computing infrastructure. The experimental study of our distributed parallel algorithm gives promising results and shows clearly the benefit of the parallel paradigm to solve large-scale instances in moderate CPU time.

Keywords: grid computing, permutation flow shop problem, branch and bound, load balancing

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3580 Weighted G2 Multi-Degree Reduction of Bezier Curves

Authors: Salisu ibrahim, Abdalla Rababah

Abstract:

In this research, we use Weighted G2-Multi-degree reduction of Bezier curve of degree n to a Bezier curve of degree m, m < n. The degree reduction of Bezier curves is used to represent a given Bezier curve of n by a Bezier curve of degree m, m < n. Exact degree reduction is not possible, and degree reduction is approximate process in nature. We derive a weighted degree reducing method that is geometrically continuous at the end points. Different norms will be considered, several error minimizations will be given. The proposed methods produce error function that are less than the errors of existing methods.

Keywords: Bezier curves, multiple degree reduction, geometric continuity, error function

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3579 Comparing Numerical Accuracy of Solutions of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) Using Taylor's Series Method, Euler's Method and Runge-Kutta (RK) Method

Authors: Palwinder Singh, Munish Sandhir, Tejinder Singh

Abstract:

The ordinary differential equations (ODE) represent a natural framework for mathematical modeling of many real-life situations in the field of engineering, control systems, physics, chemistry and astronomy etc. Such type of differential equations can be solved by analytical methods or by numerical methods. If the solution is calculated using analytical methods, it is done through calculus theories, and thus requires a longer time to solve. In this paper, we compare the numerical accuracy of the solutions given by the three main types of one-step initial value solvers: Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method and Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method (RK4). The comparison of accuracy is obtained through comparing the solutions of ordinary differential equation given by these three methods. Furthermore, to verify the accuracy; we compare these numerical solutions with the exact solutions.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations (ODE), Taylor’s Series Method, Euler’s Method, Runge-Kutta Fourth Order Method

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3578 Mapping Methods to Solve a Modified Korteweg de Vries Type Equation

Authors: E. V. Krishnan

Abstract:

In this paper, we employ mapping methods to construct exact travelling wave solutions for a modified Korteweg-de Vries equation. We have derived periodic wave solutions in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions, kink solutions and singular wave solutions in terms of hyperbolic functions.

Keywords: travelling wave solutions, Jacobi elliptic functions, solitary wave solutions, Korteweg-de Vries equation

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3577 Solving Linear Systems Involved in Convex Programming Problems

Authors: Yixun Shi

Abstract:

Many interior point methods for convex programming solve an (n+m)x(n+m)linear system in each iteration. Many implementations solve this system in each iteration by considering an equivalent mXm system (4) as listed in the paper, and thus the job is reduced into solving the system (4). However, the system(4) has to be solved exactly since otherwise the error would be entirely passed onto the last m equations of the original system. Often the Cholesky factorization is computed to obtain the exact solution of (4). One Cholesky factorization is to be done in every iteration, resulting in higher computational costs. In this paper, two iterative methods for solving linear systems using vector division are combined together and embedded into interior point methods. Instead of computing one Cholesky factorization in each iteration, it requires only one Cholesky factorization in the entire procedure, thus significantly reduces the amount of computation needed for solving the problem. Based on that, a hybrid algorithm for solving convex programming problems is proposed.

Keywords: convex programming, interior point method, linear systems, vector division

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3576 A Survey of Discrete Facility Location Problems

Authors: Z. Ulukan, E. Demircioğlu,

Abstract:

Facility location is a complex real-world problem which needs a strategic management decision. This paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and developments in Facility Location Problems which are classical optimization problems having a wide-spread applications in various areas such as transportation, distribution, production, supply chain decisions and telecommunication. Our goal is not to review all variants of different studies in FLPs or to describe very detailed computational techniques and solution approaches, but rather to provide a broad overview of major location problems that have been studied, indicating how they are formulated and what are proposed by researchers to tackle the problem. A brief, elucidative table based on a grouping according to “General Problem Type” and “Methods Proposed” used in the studies is also presented at the end of the work.

Keywords: discrete location problems, exact methods, heuristic algorithms, single source capacitated facility location problems

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3575 Exact Solutions of a Nonlinear Schrodinger Equation with Kerr Law Nonlinearity

Authors: Muna Alghabshi, Edmana Krishnan

Abstract:

A nonlinear Schrodinger equation has been considered for solving by mapping methods in terms of Jacobi elliptic functions (JEFs). The equation under consideration has a linear evolution term, linear and nonlinear dispersion terms, the Kerr law nonlinearity term and three terms representing the contribution of meta materials. This equation which has applications in optical fibers is found to have soliton solutions, shock wave solutions, and singular wave solutions when the modulus of the JEFs approach 1 which is the infinite period limit. The equation with special values of the parameters has also been solved using the tanh method.

Keywords: Jacobi elliptic function, mapping methods, nonlinear Schrodinger Equation, tanh method

Procedia PDF Downloads 280
3574 Solution of Hybrid Fuzzy Differential Equations

Authors: Mahmood Otadi, Maryam Mosleh

Abstract:

The hybrid differential equations have a wide range of applications in science and engineering. In this paper, the homotopy analysis method (HAM) is applied to obtain the series solution of the hybrid differential equations. Using the homotopy analysis method, it is possible to find the exact solution or an approximate solution of the problem. Comparisons are made between improved predictor-corrector method, homotopy analysis method and the exact solution. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical example.

Keywords: fuzzy number, fuzzy ODE, HAM, approximate method

Procedia PDF Downloads 486
3573 Integrating Qualitative and Behavioural Insights to Increase the Take-Up of an Education Savings Program for Low Income Canadians

Authors: Mathieu Audet, Monica Soliman, Emilie Eve Gravel, Rebecca Friesdorf

Abstract:

Access to higher education is critical for reducing social inequalities. The Canada Learning Bond (CLB) is a government savings incentive aimed at increasing higher education access for children of low income families by providing money toward a Registered Education Savings Plan. To better understand the educational and financial decision-making of low income families, Employment Social Development Canada conducted qualitative fieldwork with eligible parents and children, teachers, and community organizations promoting the Bond. Insights from this fieldwork were then used to develop letters to better target the needs and experiences of eligible families. In the present study, we conducted a randomized controlled trial with children ages 12 to 13, the oldest cohort of eligible children, to test the effectiveness of the new letters. Parents or caregivers of 150,088 eligible children were assigned to one of five letter conditions promoting the Bond or to a control condition that did not receive a letter. The letter conditions were: (a) the standard letter from past outreach, (b) a letter presenting the exact amount the child was eligible to receive, enhancing the salience of benefits, (c) a letter with a social norm, (d) a letter with an image emphasizing the feasibility of higher education by presenting the diversity of options (i.e., college, trade schools, apprenticeships) – many participants interviewed viewed that university was unfeasible, and (e) a letter minimizing references to 'saving' (i.e., not framing the Bond explicitly as a savings incentive) – a concept that did not resonate with low income families who felt they could not afford to save. The exact amount was also presented in letters (c) through (e). The letter minimizing references to 'saving' and presenting the exact amount had the highest net take-up rate at 6.6%, compared to 3.5% for the standard letter group. Furthermore, this trial’s BI-informed letters showed the largest impact on take-up so far, with a net take-up of 5.7% compared to 3.0% and 3.9% in the first two trials. This research highlights the value of mixed-method approaches combining qualitative and behavioural insights methods for developing context-sensitive interventions for social programs. By gaining a deeper understanding of the needs and experiences of program users through qualitative fieldwork, and then integrating these insights into behaviourally informed communications, we were able to increase take-up of an education savings program, which may ultimately improve access to higher education in children of low income families.

Keywords: access to higher education, behavioral insights, government, innovation, mixed-methods, social programs

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3572 A Series Solution of Fuzzy Integro-Differential Equation

Authors: Maryam Mosleh, Mahmood Otadi

Abstract:

The hybrid differential equations have a wide range of applications in science and engineering. In this paper, the homotopy analysis method (HAM) is applied to obtain the series solution of the hybrid differential equations. Using the homotopy analysis method, it is possible to find the exact solution or an approximate solution of the problem. Comparisons are made between improved predictor-corrector method, homotopy analysis method and the exact solution. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy number, parametric form of a fuzzy number, fuzzy integrodifferential equation, homotopy analysis method

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3571 Hydrodynamic Behaviour Study of Fast Mono-Hull and Catamaran Vessels in Calm Waters Using Free Surface Flow Analysis

Authors: Mohammad Sadeghian, Mohsen Sadeghian

Abstract:

In this paper, planning catamaran and mono-hull vessels resistance and trim in calm waters were considered. Hydrodynamic analysis of fast mono-hull planning vessel was also investigated. For hull form geometry optimization, numerical methods of different parameters were used for this type of vessels. Hull material was selected as carbon fiber composite. Exact architectural aspects were specified and stability calculations were performed, as well. Hydrodynamic calculations to extract the resistance force using semi-analytical methods and numerical modeling were carried out. Free surface numerical analysis of vessel in designed draft using finite volume method and double phase were evaluated and verified by experimental tests.

Keywords: fast vessel, hydrostatic and hydrodynamic optimization, free surface flow, computational fluid dynamics

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3570 Location Quotient Analysis: Case Study

Authors: Seyed Habib A. Rahmati, Mohamad Hasan Sadeghpour, Parsa Fallah Sheikhlari

Abstract:

Location quotient (LQ) is a comparison technique that represents emphasized economic structure of single zone versus the standard area to identify specialty for every zone. In another words, the exact calculation of this metric can show the main core competencies and critical capabilities of an area to the decision makers. This research focus on the exact calculation of the LQ for an Iranian Province called Qazvin and within a case study introduces LQ of the capable industries of Qazvin. Finally, through different graphs and tables, it creates an opportunity to compare the recognized capabilities.

Keywords: location quotient, case study, province analysis, core competency

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3569 A Spectral Decomposition Method for Ordinary Differential Equation Systems with Constant or Linear Right Hand Sides

Authors: R. B. Ogunrinde, C. C. Jibunoh

Abstract:

In this paper, a spectral decomposition method is developed for the direct integration of stiff and nonstiff homogeneous linear (ODE) systems with linear, constant, or zero right hand sides (RHSs). The method does not require iteration but obtains solutions at any random points of t, by direct evaluation, in the interval of integration. All the numerical solutions obtained for the class of systems coincide with the exact theoretical solutions. In particular, solutions of homogeneous linear systems, i.e. with zero RHS, conform to the exact analytical solutions of the systems in terms of t.

Keywords: spectral decomposition, linear RHS, homogeneous linear systems, eigenvalues of the Jacobian

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3568 Development of a Biomechanical Method for Ergonomic Evaluation: Comparison with Observational Methods

Authors: M. Zare, S. Biau, M. Corq, Y. Roquelaure

Abstract:

A wide variety of observational methods have been developed to evaluate the ergonomic workloads in manufacturing. However, the precision and accuracy of these methods remain a subject of debate. The aims of this study were to develop biomechanical methods to evaluate ergonomic workloads and to compare them with observational methods. Two observational methods, i.e. SCANIA Ergonomic Standard (SES) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA), were used to assess ergonomic workloads at two simulated workstations. They included four tasks such as tightening & loosening, attachment of tubes and strapping as well as other actions. Sensors were also used to measure biomechanical data (Inclinometers, Accelerometers, and Goniometers). Our findings showed that in assessment of some risk factors both RULA & SES were in agreement with the results of biomechanical methods. However, there was disagreement on neck and wrist postures. In conclusion, the biomechanical approach was more precise than observational methods, but some risk factors evaluated with observational methods were not measurable with the biomechanical techniques developed.

Keywords: ergonomic, observational method, biomechanical methods, workload

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
3567 Symbolic Computation and Abundant Travelling Wave Solutions to Modified Burgers' Equation

Authors: Muhammad Younis

Abstract:

In this article, the novel (G′/G)-expansion method is successfully applied to construct the abundant travelling wave solutions to the modified Burgers’ equation with the aid of computation. The method is reliable and useful, which gives more general exact travelling wave solutions than the existing methods. These obtained solutions are in the form of hyperbolic, trigonometric and rational functions including solitary, singular and periodic solutions which have many potential applications in physical science and engineering. Some of these solutions are new and some have already been constructed. Additionally, the constraint conditions, for the existence of the solutions are also listed.

Keywords: traveling wave solutions, NLPDE, computation, integrability

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3566 A Hybrid Based Algorithm to Solve the Multi-objective Minimum Spanning Tree Problem

Authors: Boumesbah Asma, Chergui Mohamed El-amine

Abstract:

Since it has been shown that the multi-objective minimum spanning tree problem (MOST) is NP-hard even with two criteria, we propose in this study a hybrid NSGA-II algorithm with an exact mutation operator, which is only used with low probability, to find an approximation to the Pareto front of the problem. In a connected graph G, a spanning tree T of G being a connected and cycle-free graph, if k edges of G\T are added to T, we obtain a partial graph H of G inducing a reduced size multi-objective spanning tree problem compared to the initial one. With a weak probability for the mutation operator, an exact method for solving the reduced MOST problem considering the graph H is then used to give birth to several mutated solutions from a spanning tree T. Then, the selection operator of NSGA-II is activated to obtain the Pareto front approximation. Finally, an adaptation of the VNS metaheuristic is called for further improvements on this front. It allows finding good individuals to counterbalance the diversification and the intensification during the optimization search process. Experimental comparison studies with an exact method show promising results and indicate that the proposed algorithm is efficient.

Keywords: minimum spanning tree, multiple objective linear optimization, combinatorial optimization, non-sorting genetic algorithm, variable neighborhood search

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3565 Real-Time Recognition of the Terrain Configuration to Improve Driving Stability for Unmanned Robots

Authors: Bongsoo Jeon, Jayoung Kim, Jihong Lee

Abstract:

Methods for measuring or estimating of ground shape by a laser range finder and a vision sensor (exteroceptive sensors) have critical weakness in terms that these methods need prior database built to distinguish acquired data as unique surface condition for driving. Also, ground information by exteroceptive sensors does not reflect the deflection of ground surface caused by the movement of UGVs. Therefore, this paper proposes a method of recognizing exact and precise ground shape using Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) as a proprioceptive sensor. In this paper, firstly this method recognizes attitude of a robot in real-time using IMU and compensates attitude data of a robot with angle errors through analysis of vehicle dynamics. This method is verified by outdoor driving experiments of a real mobile robot.

Keywords: inertial measurement unit, laser range finder, real-time recognition of the ground shape, proprioceptive sensor

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3564 Improvement of the Numerical Integration's Quality in Meshless Methods

Authors: Ahlem Mougaida, Hedi Bel Hadj Salah

Abstract:

Several methods are suggested to improve the numerical integration in Galerkin weak form for Meshless methods. In fact, integrating without taking into account the characteristics of the shape functions reproduced by Meshless methods (rational functions, with compact support etc.), causes a large integration error that influences the PDE’s approximate solution. Comparisons between different methods of numerical integration for rational functions are discussed and compared. The algorithms are implemented in Matlab. Finally, numerical results were presented to prove the efficiency of our algorithms in improving results.

Keywords: adaptive methods, meshless, numerical integration, rational quadrature

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3563 Effects of Various Wavelet Transforms in Dynamic Analysis of Structures

Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sadegh Balaghi, Ehsan Khojastehfar

Abstract:

Time history dynamic analysis of structures is considered as an exact method while being computationally intensive. Filtration of earthquake strong ground motions applying wavelet transform is an approach towards reduction of computational efforts, particularly in optimization of structures against seismic effects. Wavelet transforms are categorized into continuum and discrete transforms. Since earthquake strong ground motion is a discrete function, the discrete wavelet transform is applied in the present paper. Wavelet transform reduces analysis time by filtration of non-effective frequencies of strong ground motion. Filtration process may be repeated several times while the approximation induces more errors. In this paper, strong ground motion of earthquake has been filtered once applying each wavelet. Strong ground motion of Northridge earthquake is filtered applying various wavelets and dynamic analysis of sampled shear and moment frames is implemented. The error, regarding application of each wavelet, is computed based on comparison of dynamic response of sampled structures with exact responses. Exact responses are computed by dynamic analysis of structures applying non-filtered strong ground motion.

Keywords: wavelet transform, computational error, computational duration, strong ground motion data

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3562 Particle Filter Supported with the Neural Network for Aircraft Tracking Based on Kernel and Active Contour

Authors: Mohammad Izadkhah, Mojtaba Hoseini, Alireza Khalili Tehrani

Abstract:

In this paper we presented a new method for tracking flying targets in color video sequences based on contour and kernel. The aim of this work is to overcome the problem of losing target in changing light, large displacement, changing speed, and occlusion. The proposed method is made in three steps, estimate the target location by particle filter, segmentation target region using neural network and find the exact contours by greedy snake algorithm. In the proposed method we have used both region and contour information to create target candidate model and this model is dynamically updated during tracking. To avoid the accumulation of errors when updating, target region given to a perceptron neural network to separate the target from background. Then its output used for exact calculation of size and center of the target. Also it is used as the initial contour for the greedy snake algorithm to find the exact target's edge. The proposed algorithm has been tested on a database which contains a lot of challenges such as high speed and agility of aircrafts, background clutter, occlusions, camera movement, and so on. The experimental results show that the use of neural network increases the accuracy of tracking and segmentation.

Keywords: video tracking, particle filter, greedy snake, neural network

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3561 On the Accuracy of Basic Modal Displacement Method Considering Various Earthquakes

Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Sadegh Balaghi, Ehsan Khojastehfar

Abstract:

Time history seismic analysis is supposed to be the most accurate method to predict the seismic demand of structures. On the other hand, the required computational time of this method toward achieving the result is its main deficiency. While being applied in optimization process, in which the structure must be analyzed thousands of time, reducing the required computational time of seismic analysis of structures makes the optimization algorithms more practical. Apparently, the invented approximate methods produce some amount of errors in comparison with exact time history analysis but the recently proposed method namely, Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC) and Sum Root of the Sum of Squares (SRSS) drastically reduces the computational time by combination of peak responses in each mode. In the present research, the Basic Modal Displacement (BMD) method is introduced and applied towards estimation of seismic demand of main structure. Seismic demand of sampled structure is estimated by calculation of modal displacement of basic structure (in which the modal displacement has been calculated). Shear steel sampled structures are selected as case studies. The error applying the introduced method is calculated by comparison of the estimated seismic demands with exact time history dynamic analysis. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by application of three types of earthquakes (in view of time of peak ground acceleration).

Keywords: time history dynamic analysis, basic modal displacement, earthquake-induced demands, shear steel structures

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3560 Effect of the Applied Bias on Mini-Band Structures in Dimer Fibonacci InAs/Ga1-XInXAs Superlattices

Authors: Z. Aziz, S. Terkhi, Y. Sefir, R. Djelti, S. Bentata

Abstract:

The effect of a uniform electric field across multi-barrier systems (InAs/InxGa1-xAs) is exhaustively explored by a computational model using exact Airy function formalism and the transfer-matrix technique. In the case of biased DFHBSL structure a strong reduction in transmission properties was observed and the width of the mini-band structure linearly decreases with the increase of the applied bias. This is due to the confinement of the states in the mini-band structure, which becomes increasingly important (Wannier-Stark Effect).

Keywords: dimer fibonacci height barrier superlattices, singular extended state, exact Airy function and transfer matrix formalism, bioinformatics

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3559 An Exact Algorithm for Location–Transportation Problems in Humanitarian Relief

Authors: Chansiri Singhtaun

Abstract:

This paper proposes a mathematical model and examines the performance of an exact algorithm for a location–transportation problems in humanitarian relief. The model determines the number and location of distribution centers in a relief network, the amount of relief supplies to be stocked at each distribution center and the vehicles to take the supplies to meet the needs of disaster victims under capacity restriction, transportation and budgetary constraints. The computational experiments are conducted on the various sizes of problems that are generated. Branch and bound algorithm is applied for these problems. The results show that this algorithm can solve problem sizes of up to three candidate locations with five demand points and one candidate location with up to twenty demand points without premature termination.

Keywords: disaster response, facility location, humanitarian relief, transportation

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3558 Performance and Limitations of Likelihood Based Information Criteria and Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Approximation Methods

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

Abstract:

Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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3557 Vibrational Behavior of Cylindrical Shells in Axial Magnetic Field

Authors: Sedrak Vardanyan

Abstract:

The investigation of the vibrational character of magnetic cylindrical shells placed in an axial magnetic field has important practical applications. In this work, we study the vibrational behaviour of such a cylindrical shell by making use of the so-called exact space treatment, which does not assume any hypothesis. We discuss the effects of several practically important boundary conditions on the vibrations of the described setup. We find that, for some cases of boundary conditions, e.g. clamped, simply supported or peripherally earthed, as well as for some values of the wave numbers, the vibrational frequencies of the shell are approximately zero. The theoretical and numerical exploration of this fact confirms that the vibrations are absent or attenuate very rapidly. For all the considered cases, the imaginary part of the frequencies is negative, which implies stability for the vibrational process.

Keywords: bending vibrational frequencies, exact space treatment, free vibrations, magnetic cylindrical shells

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