Search results for: equity indicators

Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu

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Patents play a crucial role in protecting innovation and intellectual property. Early prediction of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) patents helps researchers and companies allocate resources and make better decisions. Understanding the key factors that influence patent impact can assist researchers in gaining a better understanding of the evolution of AI technology and innovation trends. Therefore, identifying highly impactful patents early and providing support for them holds immeasurable value in accelerating technological progress, reducing research and development costs, and mitigating market positioning risks. Despite the extensive research on AI patents, accurately predicting their early impact remains a challenge. Traditional methods often consider only single factors or simple combinations, failing to comprehensively and accurately reflect the actual impact of patents. This paper utilized the artificial intelligence patent database from the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Len.org patent retrieval platform to obtain specific information on 35,708 AI patents. Using six machine learning models, namely Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression, XGBoost Regression, LightGBM Regression, Support Vector Machine Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regression, and using early indicators of patents as features, the paper comprehensively predicted the impact of patents from three aspects: technical, social, and economic. These aspects include the technical leadership of patents, the number of citations they receive, and their shared value. The SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) metric was used to explain the predictions of the best model, quantifying the contribution of each feature to the model's predictions. The experimental results on the AI patent dataset indicate that, for all three target variables, LightGBM regression shows the best predictive performance. Specifically, patent novelty has the greatest impact on predicting the technical impact of patents and has a positive effect. Additionally, the number of owners, the number of backward citations, and the number of independent claims are all crucial and have a positive influence on predicting technical impact. In predicting the social impact of patents, the number of applicants is considered the most critical input variable, but it has a negative impact on social impact. At the same time, the number of independent claims, the number of owners, and the number of backward citations are also important predictive factors, and they have a positive effect on social impact. For predicting the economic impact of patents, the number of independent claims is considered the most important factor and has a positive impact on economic impact. The number of owners, the number of sibling countries or regions, and the size of the extended patent family also have a positive influence on economic impact. The study primarily relies on data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for artificial intelligence patents. Future research could consider more comprehensive data sources, including artificial intelligence patent data, from a global perspective. While the study takes into account various factors, there may still be other important features not considered. In the future, factors such as patent implementation and market applications may be considered as they could have an impact on the influence of patents.

Keywords: patent influence, interpretable machine learning, predictive models, SHAP

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Authors: Carolina Cuéllar, Paz González

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Research has shown that school leadership has a significant indirect effect on students’ achievements. In Chile, evidence has also revealed that this impact is stronger in vulnerable schools. With the aim of strengthening school leadership, public policy has taken up the challenge of enhancing capabilities of novice principals through the implementation of induction programs, which include a mentoring component, entrusting the task of delivering these programs to universities. The importance of using mentoring or coaching models in the preparation of novice school leaders has been emphasized in the international literature. Thus, it can be affirmed that building leadership capacity through partnership is crucial to facilitate cognitive and affective support required in the initial phase of the principal career, gain role clarification and socialization in context, stimulate reflective leadership practice, among others. In Chile, mentoring is a recent phenomenon in the field of school leadership and it is even more new in the preparation of new principals who work in public schools. This study, funded by the Chilean Ministry of Education, sought to explore the challenges and lessons arising from the design and implementation of mentoring processes which are part of the induction programs, according to the perception of the different actors involved: ministerial agents, university coordinators, mentors and novice principals. The investigation used a qualitative design, based on a study of three cases (three induction programs). The sources of information were 46 semi-structured interviews, applied in two moments (at the beginning and end of mentoring). Content analysis technique was employed. Data focused on the uniqueness of each case and the commonalities within the cases. Five main challenges and lessons emerged in the design and implementation of mentoring within the induction programs for new principals from Chilean public schools. They comprised the need of (i) developing a shared conceptual framework on mentoring among the institutions and actors involved, which helps align the expectations for the mentoring component within the induction programs, along with assisting in establishing a theory of action of mentoring that is relevant to the public school context; (ii) recognizing trough actions and decisions at different levels that the role of a mentor differs from the role of a principal, which challenge the idea that an effective principal will always be an effective mentor; iii) improving mentors’ selection and preparation processes trough the definition of common guiding criteria to ensure that a mentor takes responsibility for developing critical judgment of novice principals, which implies not limiting the mentor’s actions to assist in the compliance of prescriptive practices and standards; (iv) generating common evaluative models with goals, instruments and indicators consistent with the characteristics of mentoring processes, which helps to assess expected results and impact; and (v) including the design of a mentoring structure as an outcome of the induction programs, which helps sustain mentoring within schools as a collective professional development practice. Results showcased interwoven elements that entail continuous negotiations at different levels. Taking action will contribute to policy efforts aimed at professionalizing the leadership role in public schools.

Keywords: induction programs, mentoring, novice principals, school leadership preparation

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Authors: Naomi Grigoryan, Alexandros Loutsioli Daskalakis, Anna Elisse Uy, Yihe Huang, Aude Laurent (Webanck)

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In response to the building and construction sectors accounting for a third of all energy demand and emissions, the European Union has placed new laws and regulations in the construction sector that emphasize material circularity, energy efficiency, biodiversity, and social impact. Existing design tools assess sustainability in early-stage design for products or buildings; however, there is no standardized methodology for measuring the circularity performance of building components. Existing assessment methods for building components focus primarily on carbon footprint but lack the comprehensive analysis required to design for circularity. The research conducted in this paper covers the parameters needed to assess sustainability in the design process of architectural products such as doors, windows, and facades. It maps a framework for a tool that assists designers with real-time sustainability metrics. Considering the life cycle of building components such as façades, windows, and doors involves the life cycle stages applied to product design and many of the methods used in the life cycle analysis of buildings. The current industry standards of sustainability assessment for metal building components follow cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA), track Global Warming Potential (GWP), and document the parameters used for an Environmental Product Declaration (EPD). Developed by the Ellen Macarthur Foundation, the Material Circularity Indicator (MCI) is a methodology utilizing the data from LCA and EPDs to rate circularity, with a "value between 0 and 1 where higher values indicate a higher circularity+". Expanding on the MCI with additional indicators such as the Water Circularity Index (WCI), the Energy Circularity Index (ECI), the Social Circularity Index (SCI), Life Cycle Economic Value (EV), and calculating biodiversity risk and uncertainty, the assessment methodology of an architectural product's impact can be targeted more specifically based on product requirements, performance, and lifespan. Broadening the scope of LCA calculation for products to incorporate aspects of building design allows product designers to account for the disassembly of architectural components. For example, the Material Circularity Indicator for architectural products such as windows and facades is typically low due to the impact of glass, as 70% of glass ends up in landfills due to damage in the disassembly process. The low MCI can be combatted by expanding beyond cradle-to-grave assessment and focusing the design process on disassembly, recycling, and repurposing with the help of real-time assessment tools. Design for Disassembly and Urban Mining has been integrated within the construction field on small scales as project-based exercises, not addressing the entire supply chain of architectural products. By adopting more comprehensive sustainability metrics and incorporating uncertainty calculations, the sustainability assessment of building components can be more accurately assessed with decarbonization and disassembly in mind, addressing the large-scale commercial markets within construction, some of the most significant contributors to climate change.

Keywords: architectural products, early-stage design, life cycle assessment, material circularity indicator

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Authors: Jorge Ferro-Diaz, Lazaro Marquez-Llauger, Jose Alberto Camejo-Lamas, Lazaro Marquez-Govea

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The invasion of Scaevola sericea Vahl (Goodeniaceae) in Cuba is a recent process, this exotic invasive species was reported for the first time, in the national territory, by 2008. S. sericea is native to the coasts around the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, common on sandy beaches; it has expanded rapidly around the planet by either natural or anthropic causes, mainly due to its use in hotel gardening. Cuba is highly vulnerable to the colonization of these species, mainly due to tropical hurricanes which have increased in the last decades; it also affects other native species such as Tournefortia gnaphalodes (L.) R. Br. (Boraginaceae) that show invasive manifestations because of the unbalanced state of demographic processes of littoral vegetation, which has been studied by authors during the last 10 years. The fast development of Cuban tourism has encouraged the use of exotic species in gardening that invade large sectors of sandy coasts. Taking into account the importance of assessing the impacts dimensions and adopting effective control measures, a monitoring program for the invasion of S. sericea in Cuba was undertaken. The program has been implemented since 2013 and the main objective was to identify invasive patterns and interactions with other native species of coastal vegetation. This experience also aimed to validate the design and propose a standardized monitoring protocol to be applied throughout the country. In the Cuban territory, 12 sites were chosen, where there were established 24 permanent plots of 100 m2; measurements were taken twice a year taking into consideration variables such as abundance, plant height, soil cover, flora and companion vegetation, density and frequency; other physical variables of the beaches were also measured. Similarly, for associated individuals of T. gnaphalodes, the same variables were measured. The results of these first four years allowed us to document patterns of S. sericea invasion, highlighting the use of adventitious roots to enhance their colonization, and to characterize demographic indicators, ecosystem affections, and interactions with native plants. A density-dependent relationship with T. gnaphalodes was documented, finding a controlling effect on S. sericea, so that a manipulation experiment was applied to evaluate possible management actions to be incorporated in the Plans of the protected areas involved. With these results, it was concluded, for the evaluated sites, that S. sericea has had an invasion dynamics ruled by effects of coastal dynamics, more intense in beaches with affectations to the native vegetation, and more controlled in beaches with more preserved vegetation. It was found that when S. sericea is established, the mechanism that most reinforces its invasion is the use of adventitious roots, used to expand the patches and colonize beach sectors. It was also found that when the density of T. gnaphalodes increases, it detains the expansion of S. sericea and reduces its colonization possibilities, behaving as a natural controller of its biological invasion. The results include a proposal of a new Monitoring Protocol for Scaevola sericea in Cuba, with the possibility of extending its implementation to other countries in the region.

Keywords: biological invasion, exotic invasive species, plant interactions, Scaevola sericea

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Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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In order to attract new types of investors into the emerging Bio-Economy, a new set of metrics and measurement system is needed to better quantify the environmental, social and economic impacts of circular zero-waste design. The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding the use of biomass as a feedstock for power plants. Lack of an economically-viable business model for bioenergy facilities has resulted in the continuation of idled and decommissioned plants. In particular, the forestry-based plants which have been an invaluable outlet for woody biomass surplus, forest health improvement, timber production enhancement, and especially reduction of wildfire risk. This study looked at repurposing existing biomass-energy plants into Circular Zero-Waste Bio-Hub Ecosystems. A Bio-Hub model that first targets a ‘whole-tree’ approach and then looks at the circular economics of co-hosting diverse industries (wood processing, aquaculture, agriculture) in the vicinity of the Biomass Power Plants facilities. It proposes not only models for integration of forestry, aquaculture, and agriculture in cradle-to-cradle linkages of what have typically been linear systems, but the proposal also allows for the early measurement of the circularity and impact of resource use and investment risk mitigation, for these systems. Typically, life cycle analyses measure environmental impacts of different industrial production stages and are not integrated with indicators of material use circularity. This concept paper proposes the further development of a new set of metrics that would illustrate not only the typical life-cycle analysis (LCA), which shows the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also the zero-waste circularity measures of mass balance of the full value chain of the raw material and energy content/caloric value. These new measures quantify key impacts in making hyper-efficient use of natural resources and eliminating waste to landfills. The project utilized traditional LCA using the GREET model where the standalone biomass energy plant case was contrasted with the integration of a jet-fuel biorefinery. The methodology was then expanded to include combinations of co-hosts that optimize the life cycle of woody biomass from tree to energy, CO₂, heat and wood ash both from an energy/caloric value and for mass balance to include reuse of waste streams which are typically landfilled. The major findings of both a formal LCA study resulted in the masterplan for the first Bio-Hub to be built in West Enfield, Maine. Bioenergy facilities are currently at a critical juncture where they have an opportunity to be repurposed into efficient, profitable and socially responsible investments, or be idled and scrapped. If proven as a model, the expedited roll-out of these innovative scenarios can set a new standard for circular zero-waste projects that advance the critical transition from the current ‘take-make-dispose’ paradigm inherent in the energy, forestry and food industries to a more sustainable bio-economy paradigm where waste streams become valuable inputs, supporting local and rural communities in simple, sustainable ways.

Keywords: bio-economy, biomass energy, financing, metrics

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Authors: Priscila Ribeiro dos Santos, Luiz Antonio Daniel

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Inadequate access to clean water and sanitation has become one of the most widespread problems affecting people throughout the developing world, leading to an unceasing need for low-cost and sustainable wastewater treatment systems. The UASB technology has been widely employed as a suitable and economical option for the treatment of sewage in developing countries, which involves low initial investment, low energy requirements, low operation and maintenance costs, high loading capacity, short hydraulic retention times, long solids retention times and low sludge production. Whereas dissolved air flotation process is a good option for the post-treatment of anaerobic effluents, being capable of producing high quality effluents in terms of total suspended solids, chemical oxygen demand, phosphorus, and even pathogens. This work presents an evaluation and monitoring, over a period of 6 months, of one compact full-scale system with this configuration, UASB reactors followed by dissolved air flotation units (DAF), operating in Brazil. It was verified as a successful treatment system, and an issue of relevance since dissolved air flotation process treating UASB reactor effluents is not widely encompassed in the literature. The study covered the removal and behavior of several variables, such as turbidity, total suspend solids (TSS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), Escherichia coli, total coliforms and Clostridium perfringens. The physicochemical variables were analyzed according to the protocols established by the Standard Methods for Examination of Water and Wastewater. For microbiological variables, such as Escherichia coli and total coliforms, it was used the “pour plate” technique with Chromocult Coliform Agar (Merk Cat. No.1.10426) serving as the culture medium, while the microorganism Clostridium perfringens was analyzed through the filtering membrane technique, with the Ágar m-CP (Oxoid Ltda, England) serving as the culture medium. Approximately 74% of total COD was removed in the UASB reactor, and the complementary removal done during the flotation process resulted in 88% of COD removal from the raw sewage, thus the initial concentration of COD of 729 mg.L-1 decreased to 87 mg.L-1. Whereas, in terms of particulate COD, the overall removal efficiency for the whole system was about 94%, decreasing from 375 mg.L-1 in raw sewage to 29 mg.L-1 in final effluent. The UASB reactor removed on average 77% of the TSS from raw sewage. While the dissolved air flotation process did not work as expected, removing only 30% of TSS from the anaerobic effluent. The final effluent presented an average concentration of 38 mg.L-1 of TSS. The turbidity was significantly reduced, leading to an overall efficiency removal of 80% and a final turbidity of 28 NTU.The treated effluent still presented a high concentration of fecal pollution indicators (E. coli, total coliforms, and Clostridium perfringens), showing that the system did not present a good performance in removing pathogens. Clostridium perfringens was the organism which suffered the higher removal by the treatment system. The results can be considered satisfactory for the physicochemical variables, taking into account the simplicity of the system, besides that, it is necessary a post-treatment to improve the microbiological quality of the final effluent.

Keywords: dissolved air flotation, municipal sewage, UASB reactor, treatment

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Authors: Marie-Helena Docherty, Sion Edryd Williams

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The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is increasing worldwide. In Sub-Saharan Africa, type 2 diabetes represents over 90% of all types of diabetes with the number of diabetic patients expected to rise. This represents a huge economic burden in an area already contending with high rates of other significant diseases, including the highest worldwide prevalence of HIV. Diabetic complications considerably impact on morbidity and mortality. The epidemiological data for the region quotes high rates of retinopathy (7-63%), neuropathy (27-66%) and microalbuminuria (10-83%). It is therefore imperative that diabetic screening programmes are established. It is recognised that in many parts of the developing world the implementation and management of such programmes is limited by a lack of available resources. The International Diabetes Federation produced guidelines in 2012 taking these limitations into account suggesting that all diabetic patients should have access to basic screening. These guidelines are consistent with the national diabetic guidelines produced by the Lesotho Medical Council. However, diabetic care in Lesotho is delivered at the local level, with variable levels of quality. A cross sectional study was performed in the outpatient department of Maluti Hospital in Mapoteng, Lesotho, a busy rural hospital in the Berea district. Demographic data on gender, age and modality of treatment were collected over a six-week time period. Information regarding 3 basic screening parameters was obtained. These parameters included eye screening (defined as a documented ophthalmology review within the last 12 months), foot screening (defined as a documented foot health assessment by any health care professional within the last 12 months) and secondary prevention (defined as a documented blood pressure and lipid profile reading within the last 12 months). These parameters were selected on the basis of the absolute minimum level of resources in Maluti Hospital. Renal screening was excluded, as the hospital does not have access to reliable renal profile checks or urinalysis. There is however a fully functioning on-site ophthalmology department run by a senior ophthalmologist with the ability to provide retinal photography, retinal surgery and photocoagulation therapy. Data was collected on 183 type 2 diabetics. 112 patients were male and 71 were female. The average age was 43 years. 4 patients were diet controlled, 140 patients were on oral hypoglycaemic agents (metformin and/or glibenclamide), and 39 patients were on a combination of insulin and oral hypoglycaemics. In the preceding 12 months, 5 patients had undergone eye screening (3%), 24 patients had undergone foot screening (13%), and 31 patients had lipid profile testing (17%). All patients had a documented blood pressure reading (100%). Our results show that screening is poorly performed in the basic indicators suggested by the IDF and the Lesotho Medical Council. On the basis of these results, a screening programme was developed using the mnemonic SaFE; secondary prevention, foot and eye care. This is simple, memorable and transferable between healthcare professionals. In the future, the expectation would be to expand upon this current programme to include renal screening, and to further develop screening pertaining to secondary prevention.

Keywords: Africa, complications, rural, screening

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Authors: Wei Ji

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This study was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area of the United States, which has experienced significant urban sprawling in recent decades. The remote sensing of land cover changes in this area spanned over four decades from 1972 through 2010. The project was implemented in two stages: the first stage focused on detection of long-term trends of urban land cover change, while the second one examined how to detect the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. For the first-stage study, six Landsat images were used with a time interval of about five years for the period from 1972 through 2001. Four major land cover types, built-up land, forestland, non-forest vegetation land, and surface water, were mapped using supervised image classification techniques. The study found that over the three decades the built-up lands in the study area were more than doubled, which was mainly at the expense of non-forest vegetation lands. Surprisingly and interestingly, the area also saw a significant gain in surface water coverage. This observation raised questions: How have human activities and precipitation variation jointly impacted surface water cover during recent decades? How can we detect such coupled impacts through remote sensing analysis? These questions led to the second stage of the study, in which we designed and developed approaches to detecting fine-scale surface waters and analyzing coupled effects of human impact and precipitation variation on the waters. To effectively detect urban landscape changes that might be jointly shaped by precipitation variation, our study proposed “urban wetscapes” (loosely-defined urban wetlands) as a new indicator for remote sensing detection. The study examined whether urban wetscape dynamics was a sensitive indicator of the coupled effects of the two driving forces. To better detect this indicator, a rule-based classification algorithm was developed to identify fine-scale, hidden wetlands that could not be appropriately detected based on their spectral differentiability by a traditional image classification. Three SPOT images for years 1992, 2008, and 2010, respectively were classified with this technique to generate the four types of land cover as described above. The spatial analyses of remotely-sensed wetscape changes were implemented at the scales of metropolitan, watershed, and sub-watershed, as well as based on the size of surface water bodies in order to accurately reveal urban wetscape change trends in relation to the driving forces. The study identified that urban wetscape dynamics varied in trend and magnitude from the metropolitan, watersheds, to sub-watersheds in response to human impacts at different scales. The study also found that increased precipitation in the region in the past decades swelled larger wetlands in particular while generally smaller wetlands decreased mainly due to human development activities. These results confirm that wetscape dynamics can effectively reveal the coupled effects of human impact and climate change on urban landscapes. As such, remote sensing of this indicator provides new insights into the relationships between urban land cover changes and driving forces.

Keywords: urban land cover, human impact, climate change, rule-based classification, across-scale analysis

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Authors: Shlomit Paz, Meir Broza

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Cholera is an acute intestinal infection caused by ingestion of food or water contaminated with the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It has a short incubation period and produces an enterotoxin that causes copious, painless, watery diarrhoea that can quickly lead to severe dehydration and death if treatment is not promptly given. In an epidemic, the source of the contamination is usually the feces of an infected person. The disease can spread rapidly in areas with poor treatment of sewage and drinking water. Cholera remains a global threat and is one of the key indicators of social development. An estimated 3-5 million cases and over 100,000 deaths occur each year around the world. The relevance of climatic events as causative factors for cholera epidemics is well known. However, the examination of the involvement of winds in intra-continental disease distribution is new. The study explore the hypothesis that the spreading of cholera epidemics may be related to the dominant wind direction over land by presenting the influence of the wind direction on windborn dissemination by flying insects, which may serve as vectors. Chironomids ("non-biting midges“) exist in the majority of freshwater aquatic habitats, especially in estuarine and organic-rich water bodies typical to Vibrio cholerae. Chironomid adults emerge into the air for mating and dispersion. They are highly mobile, huge in number and found frequently in the air at various elevations. The huge number of chironomid egg masses attached to hard substrate on the water surface, serve as a reservoir for the free-living Vibrio bacteria. Both male and female, while emerging from the water, may carry the cholera bacteria. In experimental simulation, it was demonstrated that the cholera-bearing adult midges are carried by the wind, and transmit the bacteria from one body of water to another. In our previous study, the geographic diffusions of three cholera outbreaks were examined through their linkage with the wind direction: a) the progress of Vibrio cholerae O1 biotype El Tor in Africa during 1970–1971 and b) again in 2005–2006; and c) the rapid spread of Vibrio cholerae O139 over India during 1992–1993. Using data and map of cholera dissemination (WHO database) and mean monthly SLP and geopotential data (NOAA NCEP-NCAR database), analysis of air pressure data at sea level and at several altitudes over Africa, India and Bangladesh show a correspondence between the dominant wind direction and the intra-continental spread of cholera. The results support the hypothesis that aeroplankton (the tiny life forms that float in the air and that may be caught and carried upward by the wind, landing far from their origin) carry the cholera bacteria from one body of water to an adjacent one. In addition to these findings, the current follow-up study will present new results regarding the possible involvement of winds in the spreading of cholera in recent outbreaks (2010-2013). The findings may improve the understanding of how climatic factors are involved in the rapid distribution of new strains throughout a vast continental area. Awareness of the aerial transfer of Vibrio cholerae may assist health authorities by improving the prediction of the disease’s geographic dissemination.

Keywords: cholera, Vibrio cholerae, wind direction, Vibrio cholerae dissemination

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Authors: Rifilwe Victor Modiba, Stefan Hendric Foord

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Alien invasive plants (IAP’s) have considerable negative impacts on freshwater habitats and South Africa has implemented an innovative Work for Water (WfW) programme for the systematic removal of these plants aimed at, amongst other objectives, restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services in these threatened habitats. These restoration processes are expensive and have to be evidence-based. In this study in-stream macroinvertebrate and adult Odonata assemblages were used as indicators of restoration success by quantifying the response of biodiversity metrics for these two groups to the removal of IAP’s in a strategic water resource of South Africa that is extensively invaded by invasive alien plants (IAP’s). The study consisted of a replicated design that included 45 sampling units, viz. 15 invaded, 15 uninvaded and 15 cleared sites stratified across the upper reaches of six sub-catchments of the Luvuvhu river catchment, Limpopo Province. Cleared sites were only considered if they received at least two WfW treatments in the last 3 years. The Benthic macroinvertebrate and adult Odonate assemblages in each of these sampling were surveyed from between November and March, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 respectively. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) with a log link function and Poisson error distribution were done for metrics (invaded, cleared, and uninvaded) whose residuals were not normally distributed or had unequal variance and for abundance. RDA was done for EPTO genera (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera and Odonata) and adult Odonata species abundance. GLM was done to for the abundance of Genera and Odonates that had the association with the RDA environmental factors. Sixty four benthic macroinvertebrate families, 57 EPTO genera, and 45 adult Odonata species were recorded across all 45 sampling units. There was no significant difference between the SASS5 total score, ASPT, and family richness of the three invasion classes. Although clearing only had a weak positive effect on the adult Odonate species richness it had a positive impact on DBI scores. These differences were mainly the result of significantly larger DBI scores in the cleared sites as compared to the invaded sites. Results suggest that water quality is positively impacted by repeated clearing pointing to the importance of follow up procedures after initial clearing. Adult Odonate diversity as measured by richness, endemicity, threat and distribution respond positively to all forms of the clearing. The clearing had a significant impact on Odonate assemblage structure but did not affect EPTO structure. Variation partitioning showed that 21.8% of the variation in EPTO assemblage can be explained by spatial and environmental variables, 16% of the variation in Odonate structure was explained by spatial and environmental variables. The response of the diversity metrics to clearing increased in significance at finer taxonomic resolutions, particularly of adult Odonates whose metrics significantly improved with clearing and whose structure responded to both invasion and clearing. The study recommends the use of DBI for surveying river health when hydraulic biotopes are poor.

Keywords: DBI, evidence-based conservation, EPTO, macroinvetebrates

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Authors: Alexander David Natanson

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This paper focuses on the effect of Sanctuary and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies on local economies. "Sanctuary cities" refers to municipal jurisdictions that limit their cooperation with the federal government's efforts to enforce immigration. Using county-level data from the American Community Survey and ICE data on economic indicators from 2006 to 2018, this study isolates the effects of local immigration policies on U.S. counties. The investigation is accomplished by simultaneously studying the policies' effects in counties where immigrants' families are persecuted via collaboration with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in contrast to counties that provide protections. The analysis includes a difference-in-difference & two-way fixed effect model. Results are robust to nearest-neighbor matching, after the random assignment of treatment, after running estimations using different cutoffs for immigration policies, and with a regression discontinuity model comparing bordering counties with opposite policies. Results are also robust after restricting the data to a single-year policy adoption, using the Sun and Abraham estimator, and with event-study estimation to deal with the staggered treatment issue. In addition, the study reverses the estimation to understand what drives the decision to choose policies to detect the presence of reverse causality biases in the estimated policy impact on economic factors. The evidence demonstrates that providing protections to undocumented immigrants increases economic activity. The estimates show gains in per capita income ranging from 3.1 to 7.2, median wages between 1.7 to 2.6, and GDP between 2.4 to 4.1 percent. Regarding labor, sanctuary counties saw increases in total employment between 2.3 to 4 percent, and the unemployment rate declined from 12 to 17 percent. The data further shows that ICE policies have no statistically significant effects on income, median wages, or GDP but adverse effects on total employment, with declines from 1 to 2 percent, mostly in rural counties, and an increase in unemployment of around 7 percent in urban counties. In addition, results show a decline in the foreign-born population in ICE counties but no changes in sanctuary counties. The study also finds similar results for sanctuary counties when separating the data between urban, rural, educational attainment, gender, ethnic groups, economic quintiles, and the number of business establishments. The takeaway from this study is that institutional inclusion creates the dynamic nature of an economy, as inclusion allows for economic expansion due to the extension of fundamental freedoms to newcomers. Inclusive policies show positive effects on economic outcomes with no evident increase in population. To make sense of these results, the hypothesis and theoretical model propose that inclusive immigration policies play an essential role in conditioning the effect of immigration by decreasing uncertainties and constraints for immigrants' interaction in their communities, decreasing the cost from fear of deportation or the constant fear of criminalization and optimize their human capital.

Keywords: inclusive and exclusive institutions, post matching, fixed effect, time trend, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, randomization inference and sun, Abraham estimator

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Authors: S. M. Ashikur Elahee, Md. Zahidur Rahman, Md. Shofiqur Rahman

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This study evaluated the impact of different water interventions under WASH program on access of household's to safe drinking water. Following survey method, the study was carried out in two Upazila of South-west coastal region of Bangladesh namely Koyra from Khulna and Shymnagar from Satkhira district. Being an explanatory study, a total of 200 household's selected applying random sampling technique were interviewed using a structured interview schedule. The predicted probability suggests that around 62 percent household's are out of year-round access to safe drinking water whereby, only 25 percent household's have access at SPHERE standard (913 Liters/per person/per year). Besides, majority (78 percent) of the household's have not accessed at both indicators simultaneously. The distance from household residence to the water source varies from 0 to 25 kilometer with an average distance of 2.03 kilometers. The study also reveals that the increase in monthly income around BDT 1,000 leads to additional 11 liters (coefficient 0.01 at p < 0.1) consumption of safe drinking water for a person/year. As expected, lining up time has significant negative relationship with dependent variables i.e., for higher lining up time, the probability of getting access for both SPHERE standard and year round access variables becomes lower. According to ordinary least square (OLS) regression results, water consumption decreases at 93 liters for per person/year of a household if one member is added to that household. Regarding water consumption intensity, ordered logistic regression (OLR) model shows that one-minute increase of lining up time for water collection tends to reduce water consumption intensity. On the other hand, as per OLS regression results, for one-minute increase of lining up time, the water consumption decreases by around 8 liters. Considering access to Deep Tube Well (DTW) as a reference dummy, in OLR, the household under Pond Sand Filter (PSF), Shallow Tube Well (STW), Reverse Osmosis (RO) and Rainwater Harvester System (RWHS) are respectively 37 percent, 29 percent, 61 percent and 27 percent less likely to ensure year round access of water consumption. In line of health impact, different type of water born diseases like diarrhea, cholera, and typhoid are common among the coastal community caused by microbial impurities i.e., Bacteria, Protozoa. High turbidity and TDS in pond water caused by reduction of water depth, presence of suspended particle and inorganic salt stimulate the growth of bacteria, protozoa, and algae causes affecting health hazard. Meanwhile, excessive growth of Algae in pond water caused by excessive nitrate in drinking water adversely effects on child health. In lieu of ensuring access at SPHERE standard, we need to increase the number of water interventions at reasonable distance, preferably a half kilometer away from the dwelling place, ensuring community peoples involved with its installation process where collectively owned water intervention is found more effective than privately owned. In addition, a demand-responsive approach to supply of piped water should be adopted to allow consumer demand to guide investment in domestic water supply in future.

Keywords: access, impact, safe drinking water, Sphere standard, water interventions

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.

Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability

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Authors: Rahel Birhanu Kassaye, Ralf Otterpohl, Kumelachew Yeshitila

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Water resource management and land degradation are among the critical issues threatening the suitable livability of many cities in developing countries such as Ethiopia. Rapid expansion of urban areas and fast growing population has increased the pressure on water security. On the other hand, the large transformation of natural green cover and agricultural land loss to settlement and industrial activities such as quarrying is contributing to environmental concerns. Integrated water harvesting is considered to play a crucial role in terms of providing alternative water source to insure water security and helping to improve soil condition, agricultural productivity and regeneration of ecosystem. Moreover, it helps to control stormwater runoff, thus reducing flood risks and pollution, thereby improving the quality of receiving water bodies and the health of inhabitants. The aim of this research was to investigate the potential of applying integrated water harvesting approaches as a provision for water source and enabling land restoration in Jemo river catchment consisting of abandoned quarry site adjacent to a settlement area that is facing serious water shortage in western hilly part of Addis Ababa city, Ethiopia. The abandoned quarry site, apart from its contribution to the loss of aesthetics, has resulted in poor water infiltration and increase in stormwater runoff leading to land degradation and flooding in the downstream. Application of GIS and multi-criteria based analysis are used for the assessment of potential water harvesting technologies considering the technology features and site characteristics of the case study area. Biophysical parameters including precipitation, surrounding land use, surface gradient, soil characteristics and geological aspects are used as site characteristic indicators and water harvesting technologies including retention pond, check dam, agro-forestation employing contour trench system were considered for evaluation with technical and socio-economic factors used as parameters in the assessment. The assessment results indicate the different suitability potential among the analyzed water harvesting and restoration techniques with respect to the abandoned quarry site characteristics. Application of agro-forestation with contour trench system with the revegetation of indigenous plants is found to be the most suitable option for reclamation and restoration of the quarry site. Successful application of the selected technologies and strategies for water harvesting and restoration is considered to play a significant role to provide additional water source, maintain good water quality, increase agricultural productivity at urban peri-urban interface scale and improve biodiversity in the catchment. The results of the study provide guideline for decision makers and contribute to the integration of decentralized water harvesting and restoration techniques in the water management and planning of the case study area.

Keywords: abandoned quarry site, land reclamation and restoration, multi-criteria assessment, water harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Rewati Raman, Uttam K. Roy

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One of the main adversaries of city planning in present times is the ever-expanding problem of urbanization and the antagonistic issues accompanying it. The prevalent challenges in urbanization such as population growth, urban sprawl, poverty, inequality, pollution, congestion, etc. call for reforms in the urban fabric as well as in planning theory and practice. One of the various paradigms of city planning, land use planning, has been the major instruments for spatial planning of cities and regions in India. Zoning regulation based land use planning in the form of land use and development control plans (LUDCP) and development control regulations (DCR) have been considered mainstream guiding principles in land use planning for decades. In spite of many advantages of such zoning based regulations, over a period of time, it has been critiqued by scholars for its own limitations of isolation and lack of vitality, inconvenience in business in terms of proximity to residence and low operating cost, unsuitable environment for small investments, higher travel distance for facilities, amenities and thereby higher expenditure, safety issues etc. Mixed land use has been advocated as a tool to avoid such limitations in city planning by researchers. In addition, mixed land use can offer many advantages like housing variety and density, the creation of an economic blend of compatible land use, compact development, stronger neighborhood character, walkability, and generation of jobs, etc. Alternatively, the mixed land use beyond a suitable balance of use can also bring disadvantages like traffic congestion, encroachments, very high-density housing leading to a slum like condition, parking spill out, non-residential uses operating on residential premises paying less tax, chaos hampering residential privacy, pressure on existing infrastructure facilities, etc. This research aims at studying and outlining the various challenges and potentials of mixed land use zoning, through modeling tools, as a competent instrument for city planning in lieu of the present urban scenario. The methodology of research adopted in this paper involves the study of a mixed land use neighborhood in India, identification of indicators and parameters related to its extent and spatial pattern and the subsequent use of system dynamics as a modeling tool for simulation. The findings from this analysis helped in identifying the various advantages and challenges associated with the dynamic nature of a mixed use urban settlement. The results also confirmed the hypothesis that mixed use neighborhoods are catalysts for employment generation, socioeconomic gains while improving vibrancy, health, safety, and security. It is also seen that certain challenges related to chaos, lack of privacy and pollution prevail in mixed use neighborhoods, which can be mitigated by varying the percentage of mixing as per need, ensuring compatibility of adjoining use, institutional interventions in the form of policies, neighborhood micro-climatic interventions, etc. Therefore this paper gives a consolidated and holistic framework and quantified outcome pertaining to the extent and spatial pattern of mixed land use that should be adopted to ensure sustainable urban planning.

Keywords: mixed land use, sustainable development, system dynamics analysis, urban dynamics modelling

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Authors: Bukra Kalayci, Geraldine Brennan

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Introduction: Over the last decade, a proliferation of literature related to textile and fashion business in the context of sustainable production and consumption has emerged. However, the economic and environmental benefits of solid waste recovery have not been comprehensively searched. Therefore at the end-of-life or end-of-use textile waste management remains a gap. Solid textile waste reuse and recycling principles of the circular economy need to be developed to close the disposal stage of the textile supply chain. The environmental problems associated with the over-production and –consumption of textile products arise. Together with growing population and fast fashion culture the share of solid textile waste in municipal waste is increasing. Focusing on post-consumer textile waste literature, this research explores the opportunities, obstacles and enablers or success factors associated with closed-loop textile business systems. Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted in order to identify best practices and gaps from the existing body of knowledge related to closed-loop post-consumer textile waste initiatives over the last decade. Selected keywords namely: ‘cradle-to-cradle ‘, ‘circular* economy* ‘, ‘closed-loop* ‘, ‘end-of-life* ‘, ‘reverse* logistic* ‘, ‘take-back* ‘, ‘remanufacture* ‘, ‘upcycle* ‘ with the combination of (and) ‘fashion* ‘, ‘garment* ‘, ‘textile* ‘, ‘apparel* ‘, clothing* ‘ were used and the time frame of the review was set between 2005 to 2017. In order to obtain a broad coverage, Web of Knowledge and Science Direct databases were used, and peer-reviewed journal articles were chosen. The keyword search identified 299 number of papers which was further refined into 54 relevant papers that form the basis of the in-depth thematic analysis. Preliminary findings: A key finding was that the existing literature is predominantly conceptual rather than applied or empirical work. Moreover, the enablers or success factors, obstacles and opportunities to implement closed-loop systems in the textile industry were not clearly articulated and the following considerations were also largely overlooked in the literature. While the circular economy suggests multiple cycles of discarded products, components or materials, most research has to date tended to focus on a single cycle. Thus the calculations of environmental and economic benefits of closed-loop systems are limited to one cycle which does not adequately explore the feasibility or potential benefits of multiple cycles. Additionally, the time period textile products spend between point of sale, and end-of-use/end-of-life return is a crucial factor. Despite past efforts to study closed-loop textile systems a clear gap in the literature is the lack of a clear evaluation framework which enables manufacturers to clarify the reusability potential of textile products through consideration of indicators related too: quality, design, lifetime, length of time between manufacture and product return, volume of collected disposed products, material properties, and brand segment considerations (e.g. fast fashion versus luxury brands).

Keywords: circular fashion, closed loop business, product service systems, solid textile waste elimination

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Authors: Rouzbeh Jafari, Joe Nava

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This study includes learnings from an engineering practice normally performed on large scale biohydrogen processes. If properly scale-up is done, biohydrogen can be a reliable pathway for biowaste valorization. Most of the studies on biohydrogen process development have used model feedstock to investigate process key performance indicators (KPIs). This study does not intend to compare different technologies with model feedstock. However, it reports economic drivers and technical challenges which help in developing a road map for expanding biohydrogen economy deployment in Canada. BBA is a consulting firm responsible for the design of hydrogen production projects. Through executing these projects, activity has been performed to identify, register and mitigate technical drawbacks of large-scale hydrogen production. Those learnings, in this study, have been applied to the biohydrogen process. Through data collected by a comprehensive literature review, a base case has been considered as a reference, and several case studies have been performed. Critical parameters of the process were identified and through common engineering practice (process design, simulation, cost estimate, and life cycle assessment) impact of these parameters on the commercialization risk matrix and class 5 cost estimations were reported. The process considered in this study is food waste and woody biomass dark fermentation. To propose a reliable road map to develop a sustainable biohydrogen production process impact of critical parameters was studied on the end-to-end process. These parameters were 1) feedstock composition, 2) feedstock pre-treatment, 3) unit operation selection, and 4) multi-product concept. A couple of emerging technologies also were assessed such as photo-fermentation, integrated dark fermentation, and using ultrasound and microwave to break-down feedstock`s complex matrix and increase overall hydrogen yield. To properly report the impact of each parameter KPIs were identified as 1) Hydrogen yield, 2) energy consumption, 3) secondary waste generated, 4) CO2 footprint, 5) Product profile, 6) $/kg-H2 and 5) environmental impact. The feedstock is the main parameter defining the economic viability of biohydrogen production. Through parametric studies, it was found that biohydrogen production favors feedstock with higher carbohydrates. The feedstock composition was varied, by increasing one critical element (such as carbohydrate) and monitoring KPIs evolution. Different cases were studied with diverse feedstock, such as energy crops, wastewater slug, and lignocellulosic waste. The base case process was applied to have reference KPIs values and modifications such as pretreatment and feedstock mix-and-match were implemented to investigate KPIs changes. The complexity of the feedstock is the main bottleneck in the successful commercial deployment of the biohydrogen process as a reliable pathway for waste valorization. Hydrogen yield, reaction kinetics, and performance of key unit operations highly impacted as feedstock composition fluctuates during the lifetime of the process or from one case to another. In this case, concept of multi-product becomes more reliable. In this concept, the process is not designed to produce only one target product such as biohydrogen but will have two or multiple products (biohydrogen and biomethane or biochemicals). This new approach is being investigated by the BBA team and the results will be shared in another scientific contribution.

Keywords: biohydrogen, process scale-up, economic evaluation, commercialization uncertainties, hydrogen economy

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Authors: Michele Paleologo, Marta Acampora, Serena Barello, Guendalina Graffigna

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Introduction: In the face of increasing demands for higher agricultural productivity with minimal environmental impact, participatory research approaches emerge as promising means to promote innovation. However, the complexities and ambiguities surrounding these approaches in both theory and practice present challenges. This Scoping Review seeks to bridge these gaps by mapping participatory approaches in agricultural contexts, analyzing their characteristics, and identifying indicators of success. Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic Scoping Review, searching Scopus and Web of Science databases. Our review encompassed 34 projects from diverse geographical regions and farming contexts. Thematic analysis was employed to explore the types of innovation promoted and the categories of participants involved. Results: The identified innovation types encompass technological advancements, sustainable farming practices, and market integration, forming 5 main themes: climate change, cultivar, irrigation, pest and herbicide, and technical improvement. These themes represent critical areas where participatory research drives innovation to address pressing agricultural challenges. Participants were categorized as citizens, experts, NGOs, private companies, and public bodies. Understanding their roles is vital for designing effective participatory initiatives that embrace diverse stakeholders. The review also highlighted 27 theoretical frameworks underpinning participatory projects. Clearer guidelines and reporting standards are crucial for facilitating the comparison and synthesis of findings across studies, thereby enhancing the robustness of future participatory endeavors. Furthermore, we identified three main categories of barriers and facilitators: pragmatic/behavioral, emotional/relational, and cognitive. These insights underscore the significance of participant engagement and collaborative decision-making for project success beyond theoretical considerations. Regarding participation, projects were classified as contributory (5 cases), where stakeholders contributed insights; collaborative (10 cases), with active co-designing of solutions; and co-created (19 cases), featuring deep stakeholder involvement from ideation to implementation, resulting in joint ownership of outcomes. Such diverse participation modes highlight the adaptability of participatory approaches to varying agricultural contexts. Discussion: In conclusion, this Scoping Review demonstrates the potential of participatory research in driving transformative changes in farmers' practices, fostering sustainability and innovation in agriculture. Understanding the diverse landscape of participatory approaches, theoretical frameworks, and participant engagement strategies is essential for designing effective and context-specific interventions. Collaborative efforts among researchers, practitioners, and stakeholders are pivotal in harnessing the full potential of participatory approaches and driving positive change in agricultural settings worldwide. The identified themes of innovation and participation modes provide valuable insights for future research and targeted interventions in agricultural innovation.

Keywords: participatory research, co-creation, agricultural innovation, stakeholders' engagement

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Authors: Sarah Nauwelaerts, Koen De Cremer, Alfred Bernard, Meredith Verlooy, Kristel Heremans, Natalia Bustos Sierra, Katrien Tersago, Tim Nawrot, Jordy Vercauteren, Christophe Stroobants, Sigrid C. J. De Keersmaecker, Nancy Roosens

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Projected climate changes could lead to exacerbation of respiratory disorders associated with reduced air quality. Air pollution and climate changes influence each other through complex interactions. The poor air quality in urban and rural areas includes high levels of particulate matter (PM), ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), representing a major threat to public health and especially for the most vulnerable population strata, and especially young children. In this study, we aim to develop generic standardized policy supporting tools and methods that allow evaluating in future follow-up larger scale epidemiological studies the risks of the combined short-term effects of O3 and PM on the cardiorespiratory system of children. We will use non-invasive indicators of airway damage/inflammation and of genetic or epigenetic variations by using urine or saliva as alternative to blood samples. Therefore, a multi-phase field study will be organized in order to assess the sensitivity and applicability of these tests in large cohorts of children during episodes of air pollution. A first test phase was planned in March 2018, not yet taking into account ‘critical’ pollution periods. Working with non-invasive samples, choosing the right set-up for the field work and the volunteer selection were parameters to consider, as they significantly influence the feasibility of this type of study. During this test phase, the selection of the volunteers was done in collaboration with medical doctors from the Centre for Student Assistance (CLB), by choosing a class of pre-pubertal children of 9-11 years old in a primary school in Flemish Brabant, Belgium. A questionnaire, collecting information on the health and background of children and an informed consent document were drawn up for the parents as well as a simplified cartoon-version of this document for the children. A detailed study protocol was established, giving clear information on the study objectives, the recruitment, the sample types, the medical examinations to be performed, the strategy to ensure anonymity, and finally on the sample processing. Furthermore, the protocol describes how this field study will be conducted in relation with the prevision and monitoring of air pollutants for the future phases. Potential protein, genetic and epigenetic biomarkers reflecting the respiratory function and the levels of air pollution will be measured in the collected samples using unconventional technologies. The test phase results will be used to address the most important bottlenecks before proceeding to the following phases of the study where the combined effect of O3 and PM during pollution peaks will be examined. This feasibility study will allow identifying possible bottlenecks and providing missing scientific knowledge, necessary for the preparation, implementation and evaluation of federal policies/strategies, based on the most appropriate epidemiological studies on the health effects of air pollution. The research leading to these results has been funded by the Belgian Science Policy Office through contract No.: BR/165/PI/PMOLLUGENIX-V2.

Keywords: air pollution, biomarkers, children, field study, feasibility study, non-invasive

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Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki

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Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.

Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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The paper presents a comprehensive study of the structural analysis of the Chaura Thrust in Himachal Pradesh, India. The research focuses on several key aspects, including the activation timing of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and the South Tibetan Detachment System (STDS), the identification and characterization of mylonitised zones through microscopic examination, and the understanding of box fold characteristics and their implications in the regional geology of the Himachal Himalaya. The primary objective of the study is to provide field documentation of the Chaura Thrust, which was previously considered a blind thrust with limited field evidence. Additionally, the research aims to characterize box folds and their signatures within the broader geological context of the Himachal Himalaya, document the temperature range associated with grain boundary migration (GBM), and explore the overprinting structures related to multiple sets of Higher Himalayan Out-of-Sequence Thrusts (OOSTs). The research methodology employed geological field observations and microscopic studies. Samples were collected along the Jhakri-Chaura transect at regular intervals of approximately 1 km to conduct strain analysis. Microstructural studies at the grain scale along the Jhakri-Wangtu transect were used to document the GBM-associated temperature range. The study reveals that the MCT activated in two parts, as did the STDS, and provides insights into the activation ages of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Under microscopic examination, the study identifies two mylonitised zones characterized by S-C fabric, and it documents dynamic and bulging recrystallization, as well as sub-grain formation. Various types of crenulated schistosity are observed in photomicrographs, including a rare occurrence where crenulation cleavage and sigmoid Muscovite are found juxtaposed. The study also notes the presence of S/SE-verging meso- and micro-scale box folds around Chaura, which may indicate structural upliftment. Kink folds near Chaura are visible, while asymmetric shear sense indicators in augen mylonite are predominantly observed under microscopic examination. Moreover, the research highlights the documentation of the Higher Himalayan Out-of-Sequence Thrust (OOST) in Himachal Pradesh, which activated the MCT and occurred within a zone south of the Main Central Thrust Upper (MCTU). The presence of multiple sets of OOSTs suggests a zigzag pattern of strain accumulation in the area. The study emphasizes the significance of understanding the overprinting structures associated with OOSTs. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the structural analysis of the Chaura Thrust and its implications in the regional geology of the Himachal Himalaya. The research underscores the importance of microscopic studies in identifying mylonitised zones and various types of crenulated schistosity. Additionally, the study documents the GBM-associated temperature range and provides insights into the activation of the Higher Himalayan Out-of-Sequence Thrust (OOST) in Himachal Pradesh. The findings of the study were obtained through geological field observations, microscopic studies, and strain analysis, offering valuable insights into the activation timing, mylonitization characteristics, and overprinting structures related to the Chaura Thrust and the broader tectonic framework of the region.

Keywords: Main Central Thrust, Jhakri Thrust, Chaura Thrust, Higher Himalaya, Out-of-Sequence Thrust, Sarahan Thrust

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Authors: Aleksandras Velykis, Antanas Satkus

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Clay loam and clay soils are typical for northern Lithuania. These soils are susceptible to physical degradation in the case of intensive use of heavy machinery for field operations. However, clayey soils having poor physical properties by origin require more intensive tillage to maintain proper physical condition for grown crops. Therefore not only choice of suitable tillage system is very important for these soils in the region, but also additional search of other measures is essential for good soil physical state maintenance. Research objective: To evaluate the long-term effects of different intensity tillage as well as its combinations with supplementary agronomic practices on improvement of soil physical conditions and environmental sustainability. The experiment examined the influence of deep and shallow ploughing, ploughless tillage, combinations of ploughless tillage with incorporation of lime sludge and cover crop for green manure and application of the same cover crop for mulch without autumn tillage under spring and winter crop growing conditions on clay loam (27% clay, 50% silt, 23% sand) Endocalcaric Endogleyic Cambisol. Methods: The indicators characterizing the impact of investigated measures were determined using the following methods and devices: Soil dry bulk density – by Eijkelkamp cylinder (100 cm3), soil water content – by weighing, soil structure – by Retsch sieve shaker, aggregate stability – by Eijkelkamp wet sieving apparatus, soil mineral nitrogen – in 1 N KCL extract using colorimetric method. Results: Clay loam soil physical state (dry bulk density, structure, aggregate stability, water content) depends on tillage system and its combination with additional practices used. Application of cover crop winter mulch without tillage in autumn, ploughless tillage and shallow ploughing causes the compaction of bottom (15-25 cm) topsoil layer. However, due to ploughless tillage the soil dry bulk density in subsoil (25-35 cm) layer is less compared to deep ploughing. Soil structure in the upper (0-15 cm) topsoil layer and in the seedbed (0-5 cm), prepared for spring crops is usually worse when applying the ploughless tillage or cover crop mulch without autumn tillage. Application of lime sludge under ploughless tillage conditions helped to avoid the compaction and structure worsening in upper topsoil layer, as well as increase aggregate stability. Application of reduced tillage increased soil water content at upper topsoil layer directly after spring crop sowing. However, due to reduced tillage the water content in all topsoil markedly decreased when droughty periods lasted for a long time. Combination of reduced tillage with cover crop for green manure and winter mulch is significant for preserving the environment. Such application of cover crops reduces the leaching of mineral nitrogen into the deeper soil layers and environmental pollution. This work was supported by the National Science Program ‘The effect of long-term, different-intensity management of resources on the soils of different genesis and on other components of the agro-ecosystems’ [grant number SIT-9/2015] funded by the Research Council of Lithuania.

Keywords: clay loam, endocalcaric endogleyic cambisol, mineral nitrogen, physical state

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Vanita Singh

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In developing countries, there are conflicting political agendas; policy makers have to prioritize issues from a list of issues competing for the limited resources. Thus, it is imperative to understand how some issues gain attention, and others lose in the policy circles. Multiple-Streams Theory of Kingdon (1984) is among the influential theories that help to understand the public policy process and is utilitarian for health policy makers to understand how certain health issues emerge on the policy agendas. The issue of maternal mortality was long standing in India and was linked with high birth rate thus the focus of maternal health policy was on family planning since India’s independence. However, a paradigm shift was noted in the maternal health policy in the year 1992 with the launch of Safe Motherhood Programme and then in the year 2005, when the agenda of maternal health policy became universalizing institutional deliveries and phasing-out of Traditional Birth Attendants (TBAs) from the health system. There were many solutions proposed by policy communities other than universalizing of institutional deliveries, including training of TBAs and improving socio-economic conditions of pregnant women. However, Government of India favored medical community, which was advocating for the policy of universalizing institutional delivery, and neglected the solutions proposed by other policy communities. It took almost 15 years for the advocates of institutional delivery to transform their proposed solution into a program - the Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), a safe-motherhood program promoting institutional delivery through cash incentives to pregnant women. Thus, the case of safe motherhood policy in India is worth studying to understand how certain issues/problems gain political attention and how advocacy work in policy circles. This paper attempts to understand the factors that favored the agenda of safe-motherhood in the policy circle in India, using John Kingdon’s Multiple-Stream model of agenda-setting. Through document analysis and literature review, the paper traces the evolution of safe motherhood program and maternal health policy. The study has used open source documents available on the website of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, media reports (Times of India Archive) and related research papers. The documents analyzed include National health policy-1983, National Health Policy-2002, written reports of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Department, National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) document, documents related to Janani Suraksha Yojana and research articles related to maternal health programme in India. The study finds that focusing events and credible indicators coupled with media attention has the potential to recognize a problem. The political elites favor clearly defined and well-accepted solutions. The trans-national organizations affect the agenda-setting process in a country through conditional resource provision. The closely-knit policy communities and political entrepreneurship are required for advocating solutions high on agendas. The study has implications for health policy makers in identifying factors that have the potential to affect the agenda-setting process for a desired policy agenda and identify the challenges in generating political priorities.

Keywords: agenda-setting, focusing events, Kingdon’s model, safe motherhood program India

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Authors: Rahil Bahrami, Kaveh Ashenayi

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This paper presents a systematic classification and comparative analysis of non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters. The increasing demand for efficient energy conversion in diverse applications has spurred the development of various converter topologies. In this study, we categorize bi-directional converters into three distinct classes: Inverting, Non-Inverting, and Interleaved. Each category is characterized by its unique operational characteristics and benefits. Furthermore, a practical comparison is conducted by evaluating the results of simulation of each bi-directional converter. BDCs can be classified into isolated and non-isolated topologies. Non-isolated converters share a common ground between input and output, making them suitable for applications with minimal voltage change. They are easy to integrate, lightweight, and cost-effective but have limitations like limited voltage gain, switching losses, and no protection against high voltages. Isolated converters use transformers to separate input and output, offering safety benefits, high voltage gain, and noise reduction. They are larger and more costly but are essential for automotive designs where safety is crucial. The paper focuses on non-isolated systems.The paper discusses the classification of non-isolated bidirectional converters based on several criteria. Common factors used for classification include topology, voltage conversion, control strategy, power capacity, voltage range, and application. These factors serve as a foundation for categorizing converters, although the specific scheme might vary depending on contextual, application, or system-specific requirements. The paper presents a three-category classification for non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters: inverting, non-inverting, and interleaved. In the inverting category, converters produce an output voltage with reversed polarity compared to the input voltage, achieved through specific circuit configurations and control strategies. This is valuable in applications such as motor control and grid-tied solar systems. The non-inverting category consists of converters maintaining the same voltage polarity, useful in scenarios like battery equalization. Lastly, the interleaved category employs parallel converter stages to enhance power delivery and reduce current ripple. This classification framework enhances comprehension and analysis of non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the trade-offs and merits associated with different converter types. As a result, this work aids researchers, practitioners, and engineers in selecting appropriate bi-directional converter solutions for specific energy conversion requirements. The proposed classification framework and experimental assessment collectively enhance the comprehension of non-isolated bi-directional DC-DC converters, fostering advancements in efficient power management and utilization.The simulation process involves the utilization of PSIM to model and simulate non-isolated bi-directional converter from both inverted and non-inverted category. The aim is to conduct a comprehensive comparative analysis of these converters, considering key performance indicators such as rise time, efficiency, ripple factor, and maximum error. This systematic evaluation provides valuable insights into the dynamic response, energy efficiency, output stability, and overall precision of the converters. The results of this comparison facilitate informed decision-making and potential optimizations, ensuring that the chosen converter configuration aligns effectively with the designated operational criteria and performance goals.

Keywords: bi-directional, DC-DC converter, non-isolated, energy conversion

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Jun Wang, Chenglei Diao, Emanuele Pagone, Jialuo Ding, Stewart Williams

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As a crucial component in aircraft, landing gear systems are responsible for supporting the plane during parking, taxiing, takeoff, and landing. Given the need for high load-bearing capacity over extended periods, 300M ultra-high strength steel (UHSS) is often the material of choice for crafting these systems due to its exceptional strength, toughness, and fatigue resistance. In the quest for cost-effective and sustainable manufacturing solutions, Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) emerges as a promising alternative for fabricating 300M UHSS landing gears. This is due to its advantages in near-net-shape forming of large components, cost-efficiency, and reduced lead times. Cranfield University has conducted an extensive preliminary study on WAAM 300M UHSS, covering feature deposition, interface analysis, and post-heat treatment. Both Gas Metal Arc (GMA) and Plasma Transferred Arc (PTA)-based WAAM methods were explored, revealing their feasibility for defect-free manufacturing. However, as-deposited 300M features showed lower strength but higher ductility compared to their forged counterparts. Subsequent post-heat treatments were effective in normalising the microstructure and mechanical properties, meeting qualification standards. A 300M UHSS landing gear demonstrator was successfully created using PTA-based WAAM, showcasing the method's precision and cost-effectiveness. The demonstrator, measuring Ф200mm x 700mm, was completed in 16 hours, using 7 kg of material at a deposition rate of 1.3kg/hr. This resulted in a significant reduction in the Buy-to-Fly (BTF) ratio compared to traditional manufacturing methods, further validating WAAM's potential for this application. A "cradle-to-gate" environmental impact assessment, which considers the cumulative effects from raw material extraction to customer shipment, has revealed promising outcomes. Utilising Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) for landing gear components significantly reduces the need for raw material extraction and refinement compared to traditional subtractive methods. This, in turn, lessens the burden on subsequent manufacturing processes, including heat treatment, machining, and transportation. Our estimates indicate that the carbon footprint of the component could be halved when switching from traditional machining to WAAM. Similar reductions are observed in embodied energy consumption and other environmental impact indicators, such as emissions to air, water, and land. Additionally, WAAM offers the unique advantage of part repair by redepositing only the necessary material, a capability not available through conventional methods. Our research shows that WAAM-based repairs can drastically reduce environmental impact, even when accounting for additional transportation for repairs. Consequently, WAAM emerges as a pivotal technology for reducing environmental impact in manufacturing, aiding the industry in its crucial and ambitious journey towards Net Zero. This study paves the way for transformative benefits across the aerospace industry, as we integrate manufacturing into a hybrid solution that offers substantial savings and access to more sustainable technologies for critical component production.

Keywords: WAAM, aircraft landing gear, microstructure, mechanical performance, life cycle assessment

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Authors: George Charkoftakis, Panagiotis Liosatos, Nicolas-Alexander Tatlas, Dimitrios Goustouridis, Stelios M. Potirakis

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E-maintenance is a relatively new concept, generally referring to maintenance management by monitoring assets over the Internet. One of the key links in the chain of an e-maintenance system is data acquisition and transmission. Specifically for the case of a fleet of heavy-duty vehicles, where the main challenge is the diversity of the vehicles and vehicle-embedded self-diagnostic/reporting technologies, the design of the data acquisition and transmission unit is a demanding task. This clear if one takes into account that a heavy-vehicles fleet assortment may range from vehicles with only a limited number of analog sensors monitored by dashboard light indicators and gauges to vehicles with plethora of sensors monitored by a vehicle computer producing digital reporting. The present work proposes an adaptable internet of things (IoT) sensor node that is capable of addressing this challenge. The proposed sensor node architecture is based on the increasingly popular single-board computer – expansion boards approach. In the proposed solution, the expansion boards undertake the tasks of position identification by means of a global navigation satellite system (GNSS), cellular connectivity by means of 3G/long-term evolution (LTE) modem, connectivity to on-board diagnostics (OBD), and connectivity to analog and digital sensors by means of a novel design of expansion board. Specifically, the later provides eight analog plus three digital sensor channels, as well as one on-board temperature / relative humidity sensor. The specific device offers a number of adaptability features based on appropriate zero-ohm resistor placement and appropriate value selection for limited number of passive components. For example, although in the standard configuration four voltage analog channels with constant voltage sources for the power supply of the corresponding sensors are available, up to two of these voltage channels can be converted to provide power to the connected sensors by means of corresponding constant current source circuits, whereas all parameters of analog sensor power supply and matching circuits are fully configurable offering the advantage of covering a wide variety of industrial sensors. Note that a key feature of the proposed sensor node, ensuring the reliable operation of the connected sensors, is the appropriate supply of external power to the connected sensors and their proper matching to the IoT sensor node. In standard mode, the IoT sensor node communicates to the data center through 3G/LTE, transmitting all digital/digitized sensor data, IoT device identity, and position. Moreover, the proposed IoT sensor node offers WiFi connectivity to mobile devices (smartphones, tablets) equipped with an appropriate application for the manual registration of vehicle- and driver-specific information, and these data are also forwarded to the data center. All control and communication tasks of the IoT sensor node are performed by dedicated firmware. It is programmed with a high-level language (Python) on top of a modern operating system (Linux). Acknowledgment: This research has been co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH—CREATE—INNOVATE (project code: T1EDK- 01359, IntelligentLogger).

Keywords: IoT sensor nodes, e-maintenance, single-board computers, sensor expansion boards, on-board diagnostics

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Authors: Loreta Serniene, Dalia Sekmokiene, Justina Tomkeviciute, Lina Lauciene, Vaida Andruleviciute, Ingrida Sinkeviciene, Kristina Kondrotiene, Neringa Kasetiene, Mindaugas Malakauskas

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One of the most important areas of product development and research in the dairy industry is the product enrichment with active ingredients as well as leading to increased product safety and sustainability. The most expanding field of the active ingredients is the various plants' CO₂ extracts with aromatic, antioxidant and antimicrobial properties. In this study, 15 plant extracts were evaluated based on their antioxidant, antimicrobial properties as well as sensory acceptance indicators for the development of new dairy products. In order to increase the total antioxidant capacity of the milk products, it was important to determine the content of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity of CO₂ extract. The total phenolic content of fifteen different commercial CO₂ extracts was determined by the Folin-Ciocalteu reagent and expressed as milligrams of the Gallic acid equivalents (GAE) in gram of extract. The antioxidant activities were determined by 2.2′-azinobis-(3-ethylbenzthiazoline)-6-sulfonate (ABTS) methods. The study revealed that the antioxidant activities of investigated CO₂ extract vary from 4.478-62.035 µmole Trolox/g, while the total phenolic content was in the range of 2.021-38.906 mg GAE/g of extract. For the example, the estimated antioxidant activity of Chinese cinnamon (Cinammonum aromaticum) CO₂ extract was 62.023 ± 0.15 µmole Trolox/g and the total flavonoid content reached 17.962 ± 0.35 mg GAE/g. These two parameters suggest that cinnamon could be a promising supplement for the development of new cheese. The inhibitory effects of these essential oils were tested by using agar disc diffusion method against pathogenic bacteria, most commonly found in dairy products. The obtained results showed that essential oil of lemon myrtle (Backhousia citriodora) and cinnamon (Cinnamomum cassia) has antimicrobial activity against E. coli, S. aureus, B. cereus, P. florescens, L. monocytogenes, Br. thermosphacta, P. aeruginosa and S. typhimurium with the diameter of inhibition zones variation from 10 to 52 mm. The sensory taste acceptability of plant extracts in combination with a dairy product was evaluated by a group of sensory evaluation experts (31 individuals) by the criteria of overall taste acceptability in the scale of 0 (not acceptable) to 10 (very acceptable). Each of the tested samples included 200g grams of natural unsweetened greek yogurt without additives and 1 drop of single plant extract (essential oil). The highest average of overall taste acceptability was defined for the samples with essential oils of orange (Citrus sinensis) - average score 6.67, lemon myrtle (Backhousia citriodora) – 6.62, elderberry flower (Sambucus nigra flos.) – 6.61, lemon (Citrus limon) – 5.75 and cinnamon (Cinnamomum cassia) – 5.41, respectively. The results of this study indicate plant extracts of Cinnamomum cassia and Backhousia citriodora as a promising additive not only to increase the total antioxidant capacity of the milk products and as alternative antibacterial agent to combat pathogenic bacteria commonly found in dairy products but also as a desirable flavour for the taste pallet of the consumers with expressed need for safe, sustainable and innovative dairy products. Acknowledgment: This research was funded by the European Regional Development Fund according to the supported activity 'Research Projects Implemented by World-class Researcher Groups' under Measure No. 01.2.2-LMT-K-718.

Keywords: antioxidant properties, antimicrobial properties, cinnamon, CO₂ plant extracts, dairy products, essential oils, lemon myrtle

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Authors: Isabelle Barrett

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Natural watercourses provide a range of vital ecosystem services, notably freshwater provision. They also offer highly heterogeneous habitat which supports an extreme diversity of aquatic life. Exploitation of rivers, changing land use and flood prevention measures have led to habitat degradation and subsequent biodiversity loss; indeed, freshwater species currently face a disproportionate rate of extinction compared to their terrestrial and marine counterparts. Large woody debris (LWD) encompasses the trees, large branches and logs which fall into watercourses, and is responsible for important habitat characteristics. Historically, natural LWD has been removed from streams under the assumption that it is not aesthetically pleasing and is thus ecologically unfavourable, despite extensive evidence contradicting this. Restoration efforts aim to replace lost LWD in order to reinstate habitat heterogeneity. This paper aims to assess the current state of such restoration schemes for improving fluvial ecological health in the UK. A detailed review of the scientific literature was conducted alongside a meta-analysis of 25 UK-based projects involving LWD restoration. Projects were chosen for which sufficient information was attainable for analysis, covering a broad range of budgets and scales. The most effective strategies for river restoration encompass ecological success, stakeholder engagement and scientific advancement, however few projects surveyed showed sensitivity to all three; for example, only 32% of projects stated biological aims. Focus tended to be on stakeholder engagement and public approval, since this is often a key funding driver. Consequently, there is a tendency to focus on the aesthetic outcomes of a project, however physical habitat restoration does not necessarily lead to direct biodiversity increases. This highlights the significance of rivers as highly heterogeneous environments with multiple interlinked processes, and emphasises a need for a stronger scientific presence in project planning. Poor scientific rigour means monitoring is often lacking, with varying, if any, definitions of success which are rarely pre-determined. A tendency to overlook negative or neutral results was apparent, with unjustified focus often put on qualitative results. The temporal scale of monitoring is typically inadequate to facilitate scientific conclusions, with only 20% of projects surveyed reporting any pre-restoration monitoring. Furthermore, monitoring is often limited to a few variables, with biotic monitoring often fish-focussed. Due to their longer life cycles and dispersal capability, fish are usually poor indicators of environmental change, making it difficult to attribute any changes in ecological health to restoration efforts. Although the potential impact of LWD restoration may be positive, this method of restoration could simply be making short-term, small-scale improvements; without addressing the underlying symptoms of degradation, for example water quality, the issue cannot be fully resolved. Promotion of standardised monitoring for LWD projects could help establish a deeper understanding of the ecology surrounding the practice, supporting movement towards adaptive management in which scientific evidence feeds back to practitioners, enabling the design of more efficient projects with greater ecological success. By highlighting LWD, this study hopes to address the difficulties faced within river management, and emphasise the need for a more holistic international and inter-institutional approach to tackling problems associated with degradation.

Keywords: biological monitoring, ecological health, large woody debris, river management, river restoration

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Authors: Mohamed Sameer Mughal, Andrew D. Ross, Damian J. Fearon

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Background: The fast-paced changing landscape of UK Higher Education Institution (HEIs) is poised by changes and challenges affecting Middle Managers (MM) in their job roles. MM contribute to the success of HEIs by balancing the equilibrium and pass organization strategies from senior staff towards operationalization directives to junior staff. However, this study showcased from the data analyzed during the semi structured interviews; MM job role is becoming more complex due to changes and challenges creating colossal pressures and workloads in day-to-day working. Current development programmes provisions by Human Resources (HR) departments in such HEIs are not feasible, applicable, and matching the true essence and requirements of MM who suggest that programmes offered by HR are too generic to suit their precise needs and require tailor made espousal to work effectively in their pertinent job roles. Methodologies: This study aims to capture demands of MM Development Needs (DN) by means of a conceptual model as conclusive part of the research that is divided into 2 phases. Phase 1 initiated by carrying out 2 pilot interviews with a retired Emeritus status professor and HR programmes development coordinator. Key themes from the pilot and literature review subsidized into formulation of 22 set of questions (Kvale and Brinkmann) in form of interviewing questionnaire during qualitative data collection. Data strategy and collection consisted of purposeful sampling of 12 semi structured interviews (n=12) lasting approximately an hour for all participants. The MM interviewed were at faculty and departmental levels which included; deans (n=2), head of departments (n=4), subject leaders (n=2), and lastly programme leaders (n=4). Participants recruitment was carried out via emails and snowballing technique. The interviews data was transcribed (verbatim) and managed using Computer Assisted Qualitative Data Analysis using Nvivo ver.11 software. Data was meticulously analyzed using Miles and Huberman inductive approach of positivistic style grounded theory, whereby key themes and categories emerged from the rich data collected. The data was precisely coded and classified into case studies (Robert Yin); with a main case study, sub cases (4 classes of MM) and embedded cases (12 individual MMs). Major Findings: An interim conceptual model emerged from analyzing the data with main concepts that included; key performance indicators (KPI’s), HEI effectiveness and outlook, practices, processes and procedures, support mechanisms, student events, rules, regulations and policies, career progression, reporting/accountability, changes and challenges, and lastly skills and attributes. Conclusion: Dynamic elements affecting MM includes; increase in government pressures, student numbers, irrelevant development programmes, bureaucratic structures, transparency and accountability, organization policies, skills sets… can only be confronted by employing structured development programmes originated by HR that are not provided generically. Future Work: Stage 2 (Quantitative method) of the study plans to validate the interim conceptual model externally through fully completed online survey questionnaire (Bram Oppenheim) from external HEIs (n=150). The total sample targeted is 1500 MM. Author contribution focuses on enhancing management theory and narrow the gap between by HR and MM development programme provision.

Keywords: development needs (DN), higher education institutions (HEIs), human resources (HR), middle managers (MM)

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Authors: Charaia Vakhtang

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Global oil prices are seeing new bottoms every day. The prices have already collapsed beneath the psychological verge of 30 USD. This tendency would be fully acceptable for the Georgian consumers, but there is one detail: two our neighboring countries (one friendly and one hostile) largely depend on resources of these hydrocarbons. Namely, the ratio of Azerbaijan in Georgia’s total FDI inflows in 2014 marked 20%. The ratio reached 40% in the January to September 2015. Azerbaijan is Georgia’s leading exports market. Namely, in 2014 Georgia’s exports to Azerbaijan constituted 544 million USD, i.e. 19% in Georgia’s total experts. In the January to November period of 2015, the ratio exceeded 11%. Moreover, Azerbaijan is Georgia’s strategic partner country as part of many regional projects that are designated for long-term perspectives. For example, the Baku-Tbilisi-Karsi railroad, the Black Sea terminal, preferential gas tariffs for Georgia and so on. The Russian economic contribution to the Georgian economy is also considerable, despite the losses the Russian hostile policy has inflicted to our country. Namely, Georgian emigrants are mainly employed in the Russian Federation and this category of Georgian citizens transfers considerable funds to Georgia every year. These transfers account for about 1 billion USD and consequently, these funds previously equalized to total FDI inflows. Moreover, despite the difficulties in the Russian market, Russia still remains a leader in terms of money transfers to Georgia. According to the last reports, money transfers from Russia to Georgia slipped by 276 million USD in 2015 compared to 2014 (-39%). At the same time, the total money transfers to Georgia in 2015 marked 1.08 billion USD, down 25% from 1.44 billion USD in 2014. This signifies the contraction in money transfers is by ¾ dependent on the Russian factor (in this case, contraction in oil prices and the Russian Ruble devaluation directly make negative impact on money transfers to Georgia). As to other countries, it is interesting that money transfers have also slipped from Italy (to 109 million USD from 121 million USD). Nevertheless, the country’s ratio in total money transfers to Georgia has increased to 10% from 8%. Money transfers to Georgia have increased by 22% (+18 million USD) from the USA. Money transfers have halved from Greece to 117 million USD from 205 million USD. As to Turkey, money transfers to Georgia from Turkey have increased by 1% to 69 million USD. Moreover, the problems with the national currencies of Russia and Azerbaijan, along with the above-mentioned developments, outline unfavorable perspectives for the Georgian economy. The depreciation of the national currencies of Azerbaijan and Russia is expected to bring unfavorable results for the Georgian economy. Even more so, the statement released by the Russian Finance Ministry on expected default is in direct relation to the welfare of the whole region and these tendencies will make direct and indirect negative impacts on Georgia’s economic indicators. Amid the economic slowdown in Armenia, Turkey and Ukraine, Georgia should try to enhance economic ties with comparatively stronger and flexible economies such as EU and USA. In other case, the Georgian economy will enter serious turbulent zone. We should make maximum benefit from the EU association agreement. It should be noted that the Russian economy slowdown that causes both regretful and happy moods in Georgia, will make negative impact on the Georgian economy. The same forecasts are made in relation to Azerbaijan. However, Georgia has many partner countries. Enhancement and development of the economic relations with these countries may maximally alleviate negative impacts from the declining economies. First of all, the EU association agreement should be mentioned as a main source for Georgia’s economic stabilization. It is the Georgian government‘s responsibility to successfully fulfill the EU association agreement requirements. In any case the imports must be replaced by domestic products and the exports should be stimulated through government support programs. The Authorities should ensure drawing more foreign investments and money resources, accumulating more tourism revenues and reducing external debts, budget expenditures should be balanced and the National Bank should carry out strict monetary policy. Moreover, the Government should develop a long-term state economic policy and carry out this policy at various Ministries. It is also of crucial importance to carry out constitutive policy and promote perspective directions on the domestic level.

Keywords: oil prices, economic growth, foreign direct investments, international trade

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