Search results for: environmental uncertainty

Authors: Rami A. Maher, Ibraheem K. Ibraheem

Abstract:

This work presents a comparison study between the state-space and polynomial methods for the design of the robust governor for load frequency control of steam turbine power systems. The robust governor is synthesized using the two approaches and the comparison is extended to include time and frequency domains performance, controller order, and uncertainty representation, weighting filters, optimality and sub-optimality. The obtained results are represented through tables and curves with reasons of similarities and dissimilarities.

Keywords: robust control, load frequency control, steam turbine, H∞-norm, system uncertainty, load disturbance

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Kamyar Tolouei, Ehsan Moosavi

Abstract:

In open-pit mines, the long-term production scheduling optimization problem (LTPSOP) is a complicated problem that contains constraints, large datasets, and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the output is caused by several geological, economic, or technical factors. Due to its dimensions and NP-hard nature, it is usually difficult to find an ideal solution to the LTPSOP. The optimal schedule generally restricts the ore, metal, and waste tonnages, average grades, and cash flows of each period. Past decades have witnessed important measurements of long-term production scheduling and optimal algorithms since researchers have become highly cognizant of the issue. In fact, it is not possible to consider LTPSOP as a well-solved problem. Traditional production scheduling methods in open-pit mines apply an estimated orebody model to produce optimal schedules. The smoothing result of some geostatistical estimation procedures causes most of the mine schedules and production predictions to be unrealistic and imperfect. With the expansion of simulation procedures, the risks from grade uncertainty in ore reserves can be evaluated and organized through a set of equally probable orebody realizations. In this paper, to synthesize grade uncertainty into the strategic mine schedule, a stochastic integer programming framework is presented to LTPSOP. The objective function of the model is to maximize the net present value and minimize the risk of deviation from the production targets considering grade uncertainty simultaneously while satisfying all technical constraints and operational requirements. Instead of applying one estimated orebody model as input to optimize the production schedule, a set of equally probable orebody realizations are applied to synthesize grade uncertainty in the strategic mine schedule and to produce a more profitable and risk-based production schedule. A mixture of metaheuristic procedures and mathematical methods paves the way to achieve an appropriate solution. This paper introduced a hybrid model between the augmented Lagrangian relaxation (ALR) method and the metaheuristic algorithm, the Harris Hawks optimization (HHO), to solve the LTPSOP under grade uncertainty conditions. In this study, the HHO is experienced to update Lagrange coefficients. Besides, a machine learning method called Random Forest is applied to estimate gold grade in a mineral deposit. The Monte Carlo method is used as the simulation method with 20 realizations. The results specify that the progressive versions have been considerably developed in comparison with the traditional methods. The outcomes were also compared with the ALR-genetic algorithm and ALR-sub-gradient. To indicate the applicability of the model, a case study on an open-pit gold mining operation is implemented. The framework displays the capability to minimize risk and improvement in the expected net present value and financial profitability for LTPSOP. The framework could control geological risk more effectively than the traditional procedure considering grade uncertainty in the hybrid model framework.

Keywords: grade uncertainty, metaheuristic algorithms, open-pit mine, production scheduling optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: M. Crozet, D. Roudil, T. Branger, S. Boden, P. Peerani, B. Russell, M. Herranz, L. Aldave de la Heras

Abstract:

The EURATOM work program project INSIDER (Improved Nuclear Site Characterization for Waste minimization in Decommissioning under Constrained Environment) was launched in June 2017. This 4-year project has 18 partners and aims at improving the management of contaminated materials arising from decommissioning and dismantling (D&D) operations by proposing an integrated methodology of characterization. This methodology is based on advanced statistical processing and modelling, coupled with adapted and innovative analytical and measurement methods, with respect to sustainability and economic objectives. In order to achieve these objectives, the approaches will be then applied to common case studies in the form of Inter-laboratory comparisons on matrix representative reference samples and benchmarking. Work Package 6 (WP6) ‘Performance analysis and overall uncertainty’ is in charge of the analysis of the benchmarking on real samples, the organisation of inter-laboratory comparison on synthetic certified reference materials and the establishment of overall uncertainty budget. Assessment of the outcome will be used for providing recommendations and guidance resulting in pre-standardization tests.

Keywords: decommissioning, sampling strategy, research and development, characterization, European project

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed

Abstract:

This study analyzes the crisis management and image repair strategies during the crisis of Mahidol Wittayanusorn School (MWIT) library burning. The library of this school was burned by a 16-year-old-male student on June 6th, 2010. This student blamed the school that the lesson was difficult, and other students were selfish. Although no one was in the building during the fire, it had caused damage to the building, books and electronic supplies around 130 million bahts (4.4 million USD). This event aroused many discourses arguing about the education system and morality. The strategies which were used during crisis were denial, shift the blame, bolstering, minimization, and uncertainty reduction. The results of using these strategies appeared after the crisis. That was the numbers of new students, who registered for the examination to get into this school in the later years, have remained the same.

Keywords: school, crisis management, violence, image repair strategies, uncertainty, burn

Procedia PDF Downloads 446

Authors: Assile Abou Diab, Shadi Najjar

Abstract:

Fiber-reinforcement is an effective soil improvement technique for applications involving the prevention of shallow failures on the slope face and the repair of existing slope failures. A typical application is the stabilization of cohesionless infinite slopes. The objective of this paper is to present a probabilistic, reliability-based methodology (based on Monte Carlo simulations) for the design of a practical fiber-reinforced cohesionless infinite slope, taking into consideration the impact of various sources of uncertainty. Recommendations are made regarding the required factors of safety that need to be used to achieve a given target reliability level. These factors of safety could differ from the traditional deterministic factor of safety.

Keywords: factor of safety, fiber reinforcement, infinite slope, reliability-based design, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

Abstract:

Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Chhaya Gangwal, R. N. Bhaumik, Shishir Kumar

Abstract:

Handling uncertainty and impreciseness of knowledge appears to be a challenging task in Information Systems. Intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) and rough set theory enhances databases by allowing it for the management of uncertainty and impreciseness. This paper presents a new efficient query optimization technique for the multi-valued or imprecise IF rough database. The usefulness of this technique was illustrated on malaria knowledge from the rural tribal communities of Tripura where most of the information is multi-valued and imprecise. Then, the querying about knowledge on malaria is executed into SQL server to make the implementation of IF rough data querying simpler.

Keywords: intuitionistic fuzzy set, rough set, relational database, IF rough relational database

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: A. L. Agarwal, D. A. Mahajan

Abstract:

Construction industry tumbled along with other industry/sectors during recent economic crash. Construction business could not regain thereafter and still pass through slowdown phase, resulted many real estate as well as infrastructure projects not completed on schedule and within budget. There are many theories, tools, techniques with software packages available in the market to analyze construction schedule. This study focuses on the construction project schedule and uncertainties associated with construction activities. The infrastructure construction project has been considered for the analysis of uncertainty on project activities affecting project duration and analysis is done using @RISK software. Different simulation results arising from three probability distribution functions are compiled to benefit construction project managers to plan more realistic schedule of various construction activities as well as project completion to document in the contract and avoid compensations or claims arising out of missing the planned schedule.

Keywords: construction project, distributions, project schedule, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Vedat Senol, Gursoy Turan, Anders Helmersson, Vortechz Andersson

Abstract:

In developing a mathematical model of a real structure, the simulation results of the model may not match the real structural response. This is a general problem that arises during dynamic motion of the structure, which may be modeled by means of parameter variations in the stiffness, damping, and mass matrices. These changes in parameters need to be estimated, and the mathematical model is updated to obtain higher control performances and robustness. In this study, a linear fractional transformation (LFT) is utilized for uncertainty modeling. Further, a general approach to the design of an H∞ control of a magneto-rheological damper (MRD) for vibration reduction in a building with mass, damping, and stiffness uncertainties is presented.

Keywords: uncertainty modeling, structural control, MR Damper, H∞, robust control

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Amin Karimi, Lele Zhang, Mark Fackrell

Abstract:

Rural-to-urban population migrations are a global phenomenon, with projections indicating that by 2050, 68% of the world's population will inhabit densely populated urban centers. Concurrently, the popularity of e-commerce shopping has surged, evidenced by a 51% increase in total e-commerce sales from 2017 to 2021. Consequently, distribution and logistics systems, integral to effective supply chain management, confront escalating hurdles in efficiently delivering and distributing products within bustling urban environments. Additionally, events like environmental challenges and the COVID-19 pandemic have indicated that decision-makers are facing numerous sources of uncertainty. Therefore, to design an efficient and reliable logistics system, uncertainty must be considered. In this study, it examine fleet sizing and routing while considering uncertainty in demand rate. Fleet sizing is typically a strategic-level decision, while routing is an operational-level one. In this study, a carrier must make two types of decisions: strategic-level decisions regarding the number and types of drones to be purchased, and operational-level decisions regarding planning routes based on available fleet and realized demand. If the available fleets are insufficient to serve some customers, the carrier must outsource that delivery at a relatively high cost, calculated per order. With this hierarchy of decisions, it can model the problem using two-stage stochastic programming. The first-stage decisions involve planning the number and type of drones to be purchased, while the second-stage decisions involve planning routes. To solve this model, it employ logic-based benders decomposition, which decomposes the problem into a master problem and a set of sub-problems. The master problem becomes a mixed integer programming model to find the best fleet sizing decisions, and the sub-problems become capacitated vehicle routing problems considering battery status. Additionally, it assume a heterogeneous fleet based on load and battery capacity, and it consider that battery health deteriorates over time as it plan for multiple periods.

Keywords: drone-delivery, stochastic demand, VRP, fleet sizing

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: M. Hadi Bordbar, Matthew England, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andrea Taschetto, Thomas Martin, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif

Abstract:

Climate models generally simulate long-term reductions in the Pacific Walker Circulation with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, over two recent decades (1992-2011) there was a strong intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds that is linked with a slowdown in global surface warming. Using large ensembles of multiple climate models forced by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and starting from different ocean and/or atmospheric initial conditions, we reveal very diverse 20-year trends in the tropical Pacific climate associated with a considerable uncertainty in the globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) in each model ensemble. This result suggests low confidence in our ability to accurately predict SAT trends over 20-year timescale only from external forcing. We show, however, that the uncertainty can be reduced when the initial oceanic state is adequately known and well represented in the model. Our analyses suggest that internal variability in the Pacific trade winds can mask the anthropogenic signal over a 20-year time frame, and drive transitions between periods of accelerated global warming and temporary slowdown periods.

Keywords: trade winds, walker circulation, hiatus in the global surface warming, internal climate variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Saheed A. Gbadegeshin

Abstract:

Commercialization method is a means to make inventions available at the market for final consumption. It is described as an important tool for keeping business enterprises sustainable and improving national economic growth. Thus, there are several scholarly publications on it, either presenting or testing different methods for commercialization. However, young entrepreneurs, technologists and scientists would like to know the best method to commercialize their innovations. Then, this question arises: What is the best commercialization method? To answer the question, a systematic literature review was conducted, and practitioners were interviewed. The literary results revealed that there are many methods but new methods are needed to improve commercialization especially during these times of economic crisis and political uncertainty. Similarly, the empirical results showed there are several methods, but the best method is the one that reduces costs, reduces the risks associated with uncertainty, and improves customer participation and acceptability. Therefore, it was concluded that new commercialization method is essential for today's high technologies and a method was presented.

Keywords: commercialization method, technology, knowledge, intellectual property, innovation, invention

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Monish Sengupta, Benjamin Heydecker, Daniel Woodland

Abstract:

New train control systems rely mainly on Automatic Train Protection (ATP) and Automatic Train Operation (ATO) dynamically to control the speed and hence performance. The ATP and the ATO form the vital element within the CBTC (Communication Based Train Control) and within the ERTMS (European Rail Traffic Management System) system architectures. Reliable and accurate measurement of train location, speed and acceleration are vital to the operation of train control systems. In the past, all CBTC and ERTMS system have deployed a balise or equivalent to correct the uncertainty element of the train location. Typically a CBTC train is allowed to miss only one balise on the track, after which the Automatic Train Protection (ATP) system applies emergency brake to halt the service. This is because the location uncertainty, which grows within the train control system, cannot tolerate missing more than one balise. Balises contribute a significant amount towards wayside maintenance and studies have shown that balises on the track also forms a constraint for future track layout change and change in speed profile.This paper investigates the causes of the location uncertainty that is currently experienced and considers whether it is possible to identify an effective filter to ascertain, in conjunction with appropriate sensors, more accurate speed, distance and location for a CBTC driven train without the need of any external balises. An appropriate sensor fusion algorithm and intelligent sensor selection methodology will be deployed to ascertain the railway location and speed measurement at its highest precision. Similar techniques are already in use in aviation, satellite, submarine and other navigation systems. Developing a model for the speed control and the use of Kalman filter is a key element in this research. This paper will summarize the research undertaken and its significant findings, highlighting the potential for introducing alternative approaches to train positioning that would enable removal of all trackside location correction balises, leading to huge reduction in maintenances and more flexibility in future track design.

Keywords: ERTMS, CBTC, ATP, ATO

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Riku Hayashida, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

This paper provides a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. Underwater robots are expected to be used for various work assignments. The large variety of applications of underwater robots motivates researchers to develop control systems and technologies for underwater robots. Several control methods have been proposed so far for the stabilization of nominal system model of underwater robots with no parameter uncertainty. Parameter uncertainties are considered to be obstacles in implementation of the such nominal control methods for underwater robots. The objective of this study is to establish a robust stabilization method for rotational motion of underwater robots against parameter uncertainties. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical simulations.

Keywords: robust control, stabilization method, underwater robot, parameter uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Kai Zhang, Xi Jiang

Abstract:

Effect of fuel variabilities on premixed combustion of bio-syngas mixtures is of great importance in bio-syngas utilisation. The uncertainties of concentrations of fuel constituents such as H2, CO and CH4 may lead to unpredictable combustion performances, combustion instabilities and hot spots which may deteriorate and damage the combustion hardware. Numerical modelling and simulations can assist in understanding the behaviour of bio-syngas combustion with pre-defined species concentrations, while the evaluation of variabilities of concentrations is expensive. To be more specific, questions such as ‘what is the burning velocity of bio-syngas at specific equivalence ratio?’ have been answered either experimentally or numerically, while questions such as ‘what is the likelihood of burning velocity when precise concentrations of bio-syngas compositions are unknown, but the concentration ranges are pre-described?’ have not yet been answered. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods can be used to tackle such questions and assess the effects of fuel compositions. An efficient probabilistic UQ method based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) techniques is employed in this study. The method relies on representing random variables (combustion performances) with orthogonal polynomials such as Legendre or Gaussian polynomials. The constructed PCE via Galerkin Projection provides easy access to global sensitivities such as main, joint and total Sobol indices. In this study, impacts of fuel compositions on combustion (adiabatic flame temperature and laminar flame speed) of bio-syngas fuel mixtures are presented invoking this PCE technique at several equivalence ratios. High-pressure effects on bio-syngas combustion instability are obtained using detailed chemical mechanism - the San Diego Mechanism. Guidance on reducing combustion instability from upstream biomass gasification process is provided by quantifying the significant contributions of composition variations to variance of physicochemical properties of bio-syngas combustion. It was found that flame speed is very sensitive to hydrogen variability in bio-syngas, and reducing hydrogen uncertainty from upstream biomass gasification processes can greatly reduce bio-syngas combustion instability. Variation of methane concentration, although thought to be important, has limited impacts on laminar flame instabilities especially for lean combustion. Further studies on the UQ of percentage concentration of hydrogen in bio-syngas can be conducted to guide the safer use of bio-syngas.

Keywords: bio-syngas combustion, clean energy utilisation, fuel variability, PCE, targeted uncertainty reduction, uncertainty quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Mohammad Abdullah-Al-Wadud

Abstract:

In the current era of automation and artificial intelligence, different systems have been increasingly keeping on depending on decision-making capabilities of machines. Such systems/applications may range from simple classifiers to sophisticated surveillance systems based on traditional sensors and related equipment which are becoming more common in the internet of things (IoT) paradigm. However, the available data for such problems are usually imprecise and incomplete, which leads to uncertainty in decisions made based on traditional probability-based classifiers. This requires a robust fusion framework to combine the available information sources with some degree of certainty. The theory of evidence can provide with such a method for combining evidence from different (may be unreliable) sources/observers. This talk will address the employment of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence in some practical applications.

Keywords: decision making, dempster-shafer theory, evidence fusion, incomplete data, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Denis A. Sokolov, Andrey V. Mazurkevich

Abstract:

In the modern world, there is an increasing demand for highly precise measurements in various fields, such as aircraft, shipbuilding, and rocket engineering. This has resulted in the development of appropriate measuring instruments that are capable of measuring the coordinates of objects within a range of up to 100 meters, with an accuracy of up to one micron. The calibration process for such optoelectronic measuring devices (trackers and total stations) involves comparing the measurement results from these devices to a reference measurement based on a linear or spatial basis. The reference used in such measurements could be a reference base or a reference range finder with the capability to measure angle increments (EDM). The base would serve as a set of reference points for this purpose. The concept of the EDM for replicating the unit of measurement has been implemented on a mobile platform, which allows for angular changes in the direction of laser radiation in two planes. To determine the distance to an object, a high-precision interferometer with its own design is employed. The laser radiation travels to the corner reflectors, which form a spatial reference with precisely known positions. When the femtosecond pulses from the reference arm and the measuring arm coincide, an interference signal is created, repeating at the frequency of the laser pulses. The distance between reference points determined by interference signals is calculated in accordance with recommendations from the International Bureau of Weights and Measures for the indirect measurement of time of light passage according to the definition of a meter. This distance is D/2 = c/2nF, approximately 2.5 meters, where c is the speed of light in a vacuum, n is the refractive index of a medium, and F is the frequency of femtosecond pulse repetition. The achieved uncertainty of type A measurement of the distance to reflectors 64 m (N•D/2, where N is an integer) away and spaced apart relative to each other at a distance of 1 m does not exceed 5 microns. The angular uncertainty is calculated theoretically since standard high-precision ring encoders will be used and are not a focus of research in this study. The Type B uncertainty components are not taken into account either, as the components that contribute most do not depend on the selected coordinate measuring method. This technology is being explored in the context of laboratory applications under controlled environmental conditions, where it is possible to achieve an advantage in terms of accuracy. In general, the EDM tests showed high accuracy, and theoretical calculations and experimental studies on an EDM prototype have shown that the uncertainty type A of distance measurements to reflectors can be less than 1 micrometer. The results of this research will be utilized to develop a highly accurate mobile absolute range finder designed for the calibration of high-precision laser trackers and laser rangefinders, as well as other equipment, using a 64 meter laboratory comparator as a reference.

Keywords: femtosecond laser, pulse correlation, interferometer, laser absolute range finder, coordinate measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 23

Authors: Geir Kirkebøen

Abstract:

Most patients with serious diagnoses want to know their prognosis, in particular their expected survival time. As part of the informed consent process, physicians are legally obligated to communicate such information to patients. However, there is no established (evidence based) ‘best practice’ for how to do this. The two questions explored in this study are: How do physicians communicate expected survival time to patients, and how should it be done? We explored the first, descriptive question in a study with Norwegian oncologists as participants. The study had a scenario and a survey part. In the scenario part, the doctors should imagine that a patient, recently diagnosed with a serious cancer diagnosis, has asked them: ‘How long can I expect to live with such a diagnosis? I want an honest answer from you!’ The doctors should assume that the diagnosis is certain, and that from an extensive recent study they had optimal statistical knowledge, described in detail as a right-skewed survival curve, about how long such patients with this kind of diagnosis could be expected to live. The main finding was that very few of the oncologists would explain to the patient the variation in survival time as described by the survival curve. The majority would not give the patient an answer at all. Of those who gave an answer, the typical answer was that survival time varies a lot, that it is hard to say in a specific case, that we will come back to it later etc. The survey part of the study clearly indicates that the main reason why the oncologists would not deliver the mortality prognosis was discomfort with its uncertainty. The scenario part of the study confirmed this finding. The majority of the oncologists explicitly used the uncertainty, the variation in survival time, as a reason to not give the patient an answer. Many studies show that patients want realistic information about their mortality prognosis, and that they should be given hope. The question then is how to communicate the uncertainty of the prognosis in a realistic and optimistic – hopeful – way. Based on psychological research, our hypothesis is that the best way to do this is by explicitly describing the variation in survival time, the (usually) right skewed survival curve of the prognosis, and emphasize to the patient the (small) possibility of being a ‘lucky outlier’. We tested this hypothesis in two scenario studies with lay people as participants. The data clearly show that people prefer to receive expected survival time as a median value together with explicit information about the survival curve’s right skewedness (e.g., concrete examples of ‘positive outliers’), and that communicating expected survival time this way not only provides people with hope, but also gives them a more realistic understanding compared with the typical way expected survival time is communicated. Our data indicate that it is not the existence of the uncertainty regarding the mortality prognosis that is the problem for patients, but how this uncertainty is, or is not, communicated and explained.

Keywords: cancer patients, decision psychology, doctor-patient communication, mortality prognosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Daniela Gradinaru, Iuliana Georgescu, Loredana Hutanu (Toma), Mihai-Bogdan Afrasinei

Abstract:

This article aims to analyze the situation of Romanian companies from an environmental point of view. Environmental issues are addressed very often nowadays, and they reach and affect every domain, including the economical one. Implementing an environmental management system will not only help the companies to comply with laws and regulations, but, above all, will offer them an important competitive advantage.

Keywords: environmental management system, environmental reporting, environmental expenses, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Lele Dominic Dummene

Abstract:

Environmental issues are predominant in rural areas where indigenous people reside. These environmental issues cover environmental, health, social, economic, and political issues that emanate from poor environmental management and unfair distribution of environmental resources. These issues have greatly affected the lives of the indigenous people and their daily activities. As these environmental issues grow in communities, environmental experts, scientists, and theorists have proposed and developed methods, policies, and strategies to address these environmental-related issues in indigenous communities. Thus, this paper explores how the Ogoni indigenous knowledge and cultural practices could be used to address environmental issues such as oil pollution and other environmental-related issues that have destroyed the Ogoni environment.

Keywords: Ogoniland, indigenous knowledge, environment, environmental education

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Dalvinder Kaur Mangal

Abstract:

For the past decade, noise corrupted output measurements have been a fundamental research problem to be investigated. On the other hand, the estimation of the parameters for linear dynamic systems when also the input is affected by noise is recognized as more difficult problem which only recently has received increasing attention. Representations where errors or measurement noises/disturbances are present on both the inputs and outputs are usually called errors-in-variables (EIV) models. These disturbances may also have additive effects which are also considered in this paper. Parameter estimation of false EIV problem using equation error, output error and iterative prefiltering identification schemes with and without additive uncertainty, when only the output observation is corrupted by noise has been dealt in this paper. The comparative study of these three schemes has also been carried out.

Keywords: errors-in-variable (EIV), false EIV, equation error, output error, iterative prefiltering, Gaussian noise

Procedia PDF Downloads 458

Authors: Pastraporn Thipayasothorn, Vipawan Tadapratheep, Jintana Nokyoo

Abstract:

A physical realization of good environmental governance about an environmental principle, educational psychology and architecture in the three King Mongkut's Institutes of Technology, is generated for researching physical environmental factors which related to the good environmental governance, communication between the good environmental governance and a physical environmental, and a physical environmental design policy. Moreover, we collected data by a survey, observation and questionnaire that participants are students of the three King Mongkut's Institutes of Technology, and analyzed a relationship between a building utilization and the good environmental governance awareness. We found that, from the data analysis, a balance and creativity participation which played as the project users and communities of the good governance environmental promotion in the institutes helps the good governance and environmental development in the future.

Keywords: built environment, good governance, environmental governance, physical environmental

Procedia PDF Downloads 405

Authors: Amir Azaron

Abstract:

In this research, a stochastic programming approach is developed for designing supply chains with uncertain parameters. Demands and selling prices of products at markets are considered as the uncertain parameters. The proposed mathematical model will be multi-period two-stage stochastic programming, which takes into account the selection of retailer sites, suppliers, production levels, inventory levels, transportation modes to be used for shipping goods, and shipping quantities among the entities of the supply chain network. The objective function is to maximize the chain’s net present value. In order to maximize the chain’s NPV, the sum of first-stage investment costs on retailers, and the expected second-stage processing, inventory-holding and transportation costs should be kept as low as possible over multiple periods. The effects of supply uncertainty where suppliers are unreliable will also be investigated on the efficiency of the supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain management, stochastic programming, multiobjective programming, inventory control

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

Abstract:

Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Mehrdad Mahmudizad, Roya Ahmadi Ahangar

Abstract:

This paper presents the method of designing the type 2 fuzzy PID controllers in order to solve the problem of Load Frequency Control (LFC). The Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is used to regulate the measurement factors and the effect of uncertainty of membership functions of Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (IT2FPID) controllers in order to reduce the frequency deviation resulted from the load oscillations. The simulation results implicitly show that the performance of the proposed IT2FPID LFC in terms of error, settling time and resistance against different load oscillations is more appropriate and preferred than PID and Type 1 Fuzzy Proportional Integral Differential (T1FPID) controllers.

Keywords: load frequency control, fuzzy-pid controller, type 2 fuzzy system, harmony search algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Imane Khalil, Quinn Pratt

Abstract:

In a nuclear reactor, an array of fuel rods containing stacked uranium dioxide pellets clad with zircalloy is the heat source for a thermodynamic cycle of energy conversion from heat to electricity. After fuel is used in a nuclear reactor, the assemblies are stored underwater in a spent nuclear fuel pool at the nuclear power plant while heat generation and radioactive decay rates decrease before it is placed in packages for dry storage or transportation. A computational model of a Boiling Water Reactor spent fuel assembly is modeled using FLUENT, the computational fluid dynamics package. Heat transfer simulations were performed on the two-dimensional 9x9 spent fuel assembly to predict the maximum cladding temperature for different input to the FLUENT model. Uncertainty quantification is used to predict the heat transfer and the maximum temperature profile inside the assembly.

Keywords: spent nuclear fuel, conduction, heat transfer, uncertainty quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Shabnam Pashaei, Mohammadali Badamchizadeh

Abstract:

This paper presents a new fractional-order terminal sliding mode control for synchronization of two different fractional-order chaotic systems with uncertainty and external disturbances. A fractional-order integral type nonlinear switching surface is presented. Then, using the Lyapunov stability theory and sliding mode theory, a fractional-order control law is designed to synchronize two different fractional-order chaotic systems. Finally, a simulation example is presented to illustrate the performance and applicability of the proposed method. Based on numerical results, the proposed controller ensures that the states of the controlled fractional-order chaotic response system are asymptotically synchronized with the states of the drive system.

Keywords: terminal sliding mode control, fractional-order calculus, chaotic systems, synchronization

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Adolfo Martucci, Iulian Mihai

Abstract:

By means of the expansion through a Conical Nozzle and the low pressure inside the Test Chamber, a large hypersonic stable flow takes place for a duration of up to 30 minutes. Downstream the Test Chamber, the diffuser has the function of reducing the flow velocity to subsonic values, and as a consequence, the temperature increases again. In order to cool down the flow, a heat exchanger is present at the end of the diffuser. The Vacuum System generates the necessary vacuum conditions for the correct hypersonic flow generation, and the DeNOx system, which follows the Vacuum System, reduces the nitrogen oxide concentrations created inside the plasma flow behind the limits imposed by Italian law. This very large, powerful, and complex facility allows researchers and engineers to reproduce entire re-entry trajectories of space vehicles into the atmosphere. One of the most important parameters for a hypersonic flowfield representative of re-entry conditions is the specific total enthalpy. This is the whole energy content of the fluid, and it represents how severe could be the conditions around a spacecraft re-entering from a space mission or, in our case, inside a hypersonic wind tunnel. It is possible to reach very high values of enthalpy (up to 45 MJ/kg) that, together with the large allowable size of the models, represent huge possibilities for making on-ground experiments regarding the atmospheric re-entry field. The maximum nozzle exit section diameter is 1950 mm, where values of Mach number very much higher than 1 can be reached. The specific total enthalpy is evaluated by means of a number of measurements, each of them concurring with its value and its uncertainty. The scope of the present paper is the evaluation of the sensibility of the uncertainty of the specific total enthalpy versus all the parameters and measurements involved. The sensors that, if improved, could give the highest advantages have so been individuated. Several simulations in Python with the METAS library and by means of Monte Carlo simulations are presented together with the obtained results and discussions about them.

Keywords: hypersonic, uncertainty, enthalpy, simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Mohamed Dhouibi, Bogdan Stirbu, Chabotier André, Marc Pirlot

Abstract:

Internal barrel wear is a major factor affecting the performance of small caliber guns in their different life phases. Wear analysis is, therefore, a very important process for understanding how wear occurs, where it takes place, and how it spreads with the aim on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of small caliber weapons. This paper discusses the measurement and analysis of combustion chamber wear for a small-caliber gun using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM). Initially, two different NATO small caliber guns: 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm, are considered. A Micura Zeiss Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) equipped with the VAST XTR gold high-end sensor is used to measure the inner profile of the two guns every 300-shot cycle. The CMM parameters, such us (i) the measuring force, (ii) the measured points, (iii) the time of masking, and (iv) the scanning velocity, are investigated. In order to ensure minimum measurement error, a statistical analysis is adopted to select the reliable CMM parameters combination. Next, two measurement strategies are developed to capture the shape and the volume of each gun chamber. Thus, a task-specific measurement uncertainty (TSMU) analysis is carried out for each measurement plan. Different approaches of TSMU evaluation have been proposed in the literature. This paper discusses two different techniques. The first is the substitution method described in ISO 15530 part 3. This approach is based on the use of calibrated workpieces with similar shape and size as the measured part. The second is the Monte Carlo simulation method presented in ISO 15530 part 4. Uncertainty evaluation software (UES), also known as the Virtual Coordinate Measuring Machine (VCMM), is utilized in this technique to perform a point-by-point simulation of the measurements. To conclude, a comparison between both approaches is performed. Finally, the results of the measurements are verified through calibrated gauges of several dimensions specially designed for the two barrels. On this basis, an experimental database is developed for further analysis aiming to quantify the relationship between the volume of wear and the muzzle velocity of small caliber guns.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, measurement uncertainty, erosion and wear volume, small caliber guns

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 221