Search results for: duration estimates

Authors: A. I. Ma’ali, R. B. Adeniyi, A. Y. Badeggi, U. Mohammed

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An error estimation of the integrated formulation of the Lanczos tau method for some class of ordinary differential equations was reported. This paper is concern with the generalization of tau approximants and their corresponding error estimates for some class of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) characterized by m + s =3 (i.e for m =1, s=2; m=2, s=1; and m=3, s=0) where m and s are the order of differential equations and number of overdetermination, respectively. The general result obtained were validated with some numerical examples.

Keywords: approximant, error estimate, tau method, overdetermination

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Authors: Farnaz Alborzi, Angelika Schmitz, Rainer Stamminger

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Reducing water temperatures in the wash phase of a washing programme and increasing the overall cycle durations are the latest trends in decreasing energy consumption of washing programmes. Since the implementation of the new energy efficiency classes in 2010, manufacturers seem to apply the aforementioned washing strategy with lower temperatures combined with longer programme durations extensively to realise energy-savings needed to meet the requirements of the highest energy efficiency class possible. A semi-representative on-line survey in eleven European countries (Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) was conducted by Bonn University in 2015 to shed light on consumer opinion and behaviour regarding the effects of the lower washing temperature and longer cycle duration in laundry washing on consumers’ acceptance of the programme. The risk of the long wash cycle is that consumers might not use the energy efficient Standard programmes and will think of this option as inconvenient and therefore switch to shorter, but more energy consuming programmes. Furthermore, washing in a lower temperature may lead to the problem of cross-contamination. Washing behaviour of over 5,000 households was studied in this survey to provide support and guidance for manufacturers and policy designers. Qualified households were chosen following a predefined quota: -Involvement in laundry washing: substantial, -Distribution of gender: more than 50 % female , -Selected age groups: -20–39 years, -40–59 years, -60–74 years, -Household size: 1, 2, 3, 4 and more than 4 people. Furthermore, Eurostat data for each country were used to calculate the population distribution in the respective age class and household size as quotas for the consumer survey distribution in each country. Before starting the analyses, the validity of each dataset was controlled with the aid of control questions. After excluding the outlier data, the number of the panel diminished from 5,100 to 4,843. The primary outcome of the study is European consumers are willing to save water and energy in a laundry washing but reluctant to use long programme cycles since they don’t believe that the long cycles could be energy-saving. However, the results of our survey don’t confirm that there is a relation between frequency of using Standard cotton (Eco) or Energy-saving programmes and the duration of the programmes. It might be explained by the fact that the majority of washing programmes used by consumers do not take so long, perhaps consumers just choose some additional time reduction option when selecting those programmes and this finding might be changed if the Energy-saving programmes take longer. Therefore, it may be assumed that introducing the programme duration as a new measure on a revised energy label would strongly influence the consumer at the point of sale. Furthermore, results of the survey confirm that consumers are more willing to use lower temperature programmes in order to save energy than accepting longer programme cycles and majority of them accept deviation from the nominal temperature of the programme as long as the results are good.

Keywords: duration, energy-saving, standard programmes, washing temperature

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Authors: Raja Umer Sajjad, Chang Hee Lee

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Stormwater runoff is the leading contributor to pollution of receiving waters. In response, an efficient stormwater monitoring program is required to quantify and eventually reduce stormwater pollution. The overall goals of stormwater monitoring programs primarily include the identification of high-risk dischargers and the development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). The challenge in developing better monitoring program is to reduce the variability in flux estimates due to sampling errors; however, the success of monitoring program mainly depends on the accuracy of the estimates. Apart from sampling errors, manpower and budgetary constraints also influence the quality of the estimates. This study attempted to develop optimum stormwater monitoring design considering both cost and the quality of the estimated pollutants flux. Three years stormwater monitoring data (2012 – 2014) from a mix land use located within Geumhak watershed South Korea was evaluated. The regional climate is humid and precipitation is usually well distributed through the year. The investigation of a large number of water quality parameters is time-consuming and resource intensive. In order to identify a suite of easy-to-measure parameters to act as a surrogate, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied. Means, standard deviations, coefficient of variation (CV) and other simple statistics were performed using multivariate statistical analysis software SPSS 22.0. The implication of sampling time on monitoring results, number of samples required during the storm event and impact of seasonal first flush were also identified. Based on the observations derived from the PCA biplot and the correlation matrix, total suspended solids (TSS) was identified as a potential surrogate for turbidity, total phosphorus and for heavy metals like lead, chromium, and copper whereas, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) was identified as surrogate for organic matter. The CV among different monitored water quality parameters were found higher (ranged from 3.8 to 15.5). It suggests that use of grab sampling design to estimate the mass emission rates in the study area can lead to errors due to large variability. TSS discharge load calculation error was found only 2 % with two different sample size approaches; i.e. 17 samples per storm event and equally distributed 6 samples per storm event. Both seasonal first flush and event first flush phenomena for most water quality parameters were observed in the study area. Samples taken at the initial stage of storm event generally overestimate the mass emissions; however, it was found that collecting a grab sample after initial hour of storm event more closely approximates the mean concentration of the event. It was concluded that site and regional climate specific interventions can be made to optimize the stormwater monitoring program in order to make it more effective and economical.

Keywords: first flush, pollutant load, stormwater monitoring, surrogate parameters

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Authors: Ebtisam A. Al-Mslemani, Khalid A. Enan, Asmaa Abdelgadier, Nada Assaad, Zaynab Elhussein, Khalid Eltom

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Background: Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) is a zoonotic parasite that can be transmitted from animals to humans, with felids acting as its definitive host. Thus, understanding the epidemiology of this parasite in animal populations is vital to controlling its transmission to humans as well as to other animal groups. Objectives: This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to summarise and analyse reports of T. gondii infection in animal species residing in the Arabian Peninsula. Methods: It was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA), with relevant studies being retrieved from MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and ScienceDirect. All articles published in Arabic or English languages between January 2000 and December 2020 were screened for eligibility. The random effects model was used to calculate the pooled prevalence of T. gondii infection in different animal populations which were found to harbour this infection. The critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies designed by the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) was used to assess the risk of bias in all included studies. Results: A total of 15 studies were retrieved, reporting prevalence estimates from 4 countries in this region and in 13 animal species. A quantitative meta-analysis estimated a pooled prevalence of 43% in felids [95% confidence interval (CI) = 23-64%, I2 index = 100%], 48% in sheep (95% CI = 27-70%, I2 = 99%) and 21% in camels (95% CI = 7-35%, I2 = 99%). Evidence of possible publication bias was found in both felids and sheep. Conclusions: This meta-analysis estimates a high prevalence of T. gondii infection in animal species that are of high economic and cultural importance to countries of this region. Hence, these findings provide valuable insight to public health authorities as well as economic and animal resources advisors in countries of the Arabian Peninsula.

Keywords: Arabian Peninsula, toxoplasma gondii, animals; meta-analysis, toxoplasmosis

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Authors: A. Somaya Madkour, B. Abeer sheta, C. Fatma Badr El Dine, D. Yasser Elwakeel, E. Nermine AbdAllah

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Criminal offenders have a fundamental goal not to leave any traces at the crime scene. Some may suppose that items recovered underwater will have no forensic value, therefore, they try to destroy the traces by throwing items in water. These traces are subjected to the destructive environmental effects. This can represent a challenge for Forensic experts investigating finger marks. Accordingly, the present study was conducted to determine the optimal method for latent fingerprints development on non-porous surfaces submerged in aquatic environments at different time interval. The two factors analyzed in this study were the nature of aquatic environment and length of submerged time. In addition, the quality of developed finger marks depending on the used method was also assessed. Therefore, latent fingerprints were deposited on metallic, plastic and glass objects and submerged in fresh or sea water for one, two, and ten days. After recovery, the items were subjected to cyanoacrylate fuming, black powder and small particle reagent processing and the prints were examined. Each print was evaluated according to fingerprint quality assessment scale. The present study demonstrated that the duration of submersion affects the quality of finger marks; the longer the duration, the worse the quality.The best results of visualization were achieved using cyanoacrylate either in fresh or sea water. This study has also revealed that the exposure to sea water had more destructive influence on the quality of detected finger marks.

Keywords: fingerprints, fresh water, sea, non-porous

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Authors: Reema Tiwari, U. C. Kulshrestha

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As a key regulator of atmospheric oxidative capacity and secondary aerosol formations, the signatures of reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions are becoming increasingly evident in the cascade of air pollution, acidification, and eutrophication of the ecosystem. However, their accurate estimates in N budget remains limited by the photochemical conversion processes where occurrence of differential atmospheric residence time of gaseous (NOₓ, HNO₃, NH₃) and particulate (NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺) Nr species becomes imperative to their spatio temporal evolution on a synoptic scale. The present study attempts to quantify such interactions under tropical conditions when low anticyclonic winds become favorable to the advections from west during winters. For this purpose, a diurnal sampling was conducted using low volume sampler assembly where ambient concentrations of Nr trace gases along with their ionic fractions in the aerosol samples were determined with UV-spectrophotometer and ion chromatography respectively. The results showed a spatial gradient of the gaseous precursors with a much pronounced inter site variability (p < 0.05) than their particulate fractions. Such observations were confirmed for their limited photochemical conversions where less than 1 ratios of day and night measurements (D/N) for the different Nr fractions suggested an influence of boundary layer dynamics at the background site. These phase conversion processes were further corroborated with the molar ratios of NOₓ/NOᵧ and NH₃/NHₓ where incomplete titrations of NOₓ and NH₃ emissions were observed irrespective of their diurnal phases along the sampling transect. Their calculations with equilibrium based approaches for an NH₃-HNO₃-NH₄NO₃ system, on the other hand, were characterized by delays in equilibrium attainment where plots of their below deliquescence Kₘ and Kₚ values with 1000/T confirmed the role of lower temperature ranges in NH₄NO₃ aerosol formation. These results would help us in not only resolving the changing atmospheric inputs of reduced (NH₃, NH₄⁺) and oxidized (NOₓ, HNO₃, NO₃⁻) Nr estimates but also in understanding the dependence of Nr mixing ratios on their local meteorological conditions.

Keywords: diurnal ratios, gas-aerosol interactions, spatial gradient, thermodynamic equilibrium

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Authors: Hsin-Yi Kathy Cheng, Yan-Ying JU, Wann-Yun Shieh, Chin-Man Wang

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Although the coordination of swallowing and respiration has been discussed widely, the influence of the positioning angle on swallowing and respiration during feeding has rarely been investigated. This study aimed to investigate the timing and coordination of swallowing and respiration in different seat inclination angles, with liquid and bolus, to provide suggestions and guidelines for the design and develop a feedback-controlled seat angle adjustment device for the back-adjustable wheelchair. Twenty-six participants aged between 15-30 years old without any signs of swallowing difficulty were included. The combination of seat inclinations and food types was randomly assigned, with three repetitions in each combination. The trunk inclination angle was adjusted by a commercialized positioning wheelchair. A total of 36 swallows were done, with at least 30 seconds of rest between each swallow. We used a self-developed wearable device to measure the submandibular muscle surface EMG, the movement of the thyroid cartilage, and the respiratory status of the nasal cavity. Our program auto-analyzed the onset and offset of duration, and the excursion and strength of thyroid cartilage when it was moving, coordination between breathing and swallowing were also included. Variables measured include the EMG duration (DsEMG), swallowing apnea duration (SAD), total excursion time (TET), duration of 2nd deflection, FSR amplitude, Onset latency, DsEMG onset, DsEMG offset, FSR onset, and FSR offset. These measurements were done in four-seat inclination angles (5。, 15。, 30。, 45。) and three food contents (1ml water, 10ml water, and 5ml pudding bolus) for each subject. The data collected between different contents were compared. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the basic features of the data. Repeated measure ANOVAs were used to analyze the differences for the dependent variables in different seat inclination and food content combinations. The results indicated significant differences in seat inclination, mostly between 5。 and 45。, in all variables except FSR amplitude. It also indicated significant differences in food contents almost among all variables. Significant interactions between seat inclination and food contents were only found in FSR offsets. The same protocol will be applied to participants with disabilities. The results of this study would serve as clinical guidance for proper feeding positions with different food contents. The ergonomic data would also provide references for assistive technology professionals and practitioners in device design and development. In summary, the current results indicated that it is easier for a subject to lean backward during swallowing than when sitting upright and swallowing water is easier than swallowing pudding. The results of this study would serve as the clinical guidance for proper feeding position (such as wheelchair back angle adjustment) with different food contents. The same protocol can be applied to elderly participants or participants with physical disabilities. The ergonomic data would also provide references for assistive technology professionals and practitioners in device design and development.

Keywords: swallowing, positioning, assistive device, disability

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Authors: Ieva Gaide, Violeta Makareviciene

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Increasing environmental pollution is caused by various factors, including the usage of vehicles. Legislation is focused on the increased usage of renewable energy sources for fuel production. Electric car usage is also important; however, it is relatively new and expensive transport. It is necessary to increase the amount of renewable energy in the production of diesel fuel, whereas many agricultural machineries are powered by diesel, as are water vehicles. For this reason, research on biodiesel production is relevant. The majority of studies globally are related to the improvement of conventional biofuel production technologies by applying the transesterification process of oil using alcohol and catalyst. Some of the more recent methods to produce biodiesel are based on heterogeneous catalysis, which has the advantage of easy separation of catalyst from the final product. It is known that a large amount of eggshells is treated as waste; therefore, it is eliminated in landfills without any or with minimal pre-treatment. CaO, which is known as a good catalyst for biodiesel synthesis, is a key component of eggshells. In the present work, we evaluated the catalytic efficiency of eggshells and determined the optimal transesterification conditions to obtain biodiesel that meets the standards. Content CaO in eggshells was investigated. Response surface methodology was used to determine the optimal reaction conditions. Three independent variables were investigated: the molar ratio of alcohol to oil, the amount of the catalyst, and the duration of the reaction. It was obtained that the optimum transesterification conditions when the methanol and eggshells as a heterogeneous catalyst are used and the process temperature is 64°C are the following: the alcohol-to-oil molar ratio 10.93:1, the reaction duration 9.48 h, and the catalyst amount 6.80 wt%. Under these conditions, 97.79 wt% of the ester yield was obtained.

Keywords: heterogeneous catalysis, eggshells, biodiesel, oil

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Authors: Xinyu Wang

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Given the rapid development of Internet technology and the mainstream trend of online social media, people are spending increasingly more time online. This digital communication method has altered human social behavior. Concurrently, social learning phenomena occurring frequently on various online platforms have attracted significant attention. Past research has categorized social learning into affective, social learning and cognitive, social learning based on the content of learning. Recent studies have observed both types of social learning occurring in online contexts. However, few studies have simultaneously addressed both types of social learning or explored their underlying mechanisms and differences. This study aims to investigate through three behavioral experiments. Experiment 1 manipulates the content of experimental materials and two forms of feedback, emotional valence, sociability, and repetition, to verify whether individuals can achieve online emotional social learning through reinforcement using two social learning strategies. Results reveal that both social learning strategies can assist individuals in affective and social learning through reinforcement, with feedback-based learning strategies outperforming frequency-dependent strategies. Experiment 2 similarly manipulates the content of experimental materials and two forms of feedback to verify whether individuals can achieve online knowledge and social learning through reinforcement using two social learning strategies. Results show that similar to online affective and social learning, individuals adopt both social learning strategies to achieve cognitive and social learning through reinforcement, with feedback-based learning strategies outperforming frequency-dependent strategies. Experiment 3 simultaneously observes online affective and cognitive social learning by manipulating the content of experimental materials and feedback at different levels of social pressure. Results indicate that online affective and social learning exhibits different learning effects under different levels of social pressure, whereas online cognitive social learning remains unaffected by social pressure, demonstrating more stable learning effects. Additionally, to explore the sustained effects of online social learning and differences in duration among different types of online social learning, all three experiments incorporate two test time points. Results reveal significant differences in pre-post-test scores for online social learning in Experiments 2 and 3, whereas differences are less apparent in Experiment 1. To accurately measure the sustained effects of online social learning, the researchers conducted a mini-meta-analysis of all effect sizes of online social learning duration. Results indicate that although the overall effect size is small, the effect of online social learning weakens over time.

Keywords: online social learning, affective social learning, cognitive social learning, social learning strategies, social reinforcement, social pressure, duration

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Authors: Hing Hao Chan, Thomas Richard, Masood Mostofi

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The mining industry relies on an estimate of rock strength at several stages of a mine life cycle: mining (excavating, blasting, tunnelling) and processing (crushing and grinding), both very energy-intensive activities. An effective comminution design that can yield significant dividends often requires a reliable estimate of the material rock strength. Common laboratory tests such as rod, ball mill, and uniaxial compressive strength share common shortcomings such as time, sample preparation, bias in plug selection cost, repeatability, and sample amount to ensure reliable estimates. In this paper, the authors present a methodology to derive an estimate of the rock strength from drilling data recorded while coring with a diamond core head. The work presented in this paper builds on a phenomenological model of the bit-rock interface proposed by Franca et al. (2015) and is inspired by the now well-established use of the scratch test with PDC (Polycrystalline Diamond Compact) cutter to derive the rock uniaxial compressive strength. The first part of the paper introduces the phenomenological model of the bit-rock interface for a diamond core head that relates the forces acting on the drill bit (torque, axial thrust) to the bit kinematic variables (rate of penetration and angular velocity) and introduces the intrinsic specific energy or the energy required to drill a unit volume of rock for an ideally sharp drilling tool (meaning ideally sharp diamonds and no contact between the bit matrix and rock debris) that is found well correlated to the rock uniaxial compressive strength for PDC and roller cone bits. The second part describes the laboratory drill rig, the experimental procedure that is tailored to minimize the effect of diamond polishing over the duration of the experiments, and the step-by-step methodology to derive the intrinsic specific energy from the recorded data. The third section presents the results and shows that the intrinsic specific energy correlates well to the uniaxial compressive strength for the 11 tested rock materials (7 sedimentary and 4 igneous rocks). The last section discusses best drilling practices and a method to estimate the rock strength from field drilling data considering the compliance of the drill string and frictional losses along the borehole. The approach is illustrated with a case study from drilling data recorded while drilling an exploration well in Australia.

Keywords: bit-rock interaction, drilling experiment, impregnated diamond drilling, uniaxial compressive strength

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Authors: Bongs Lainjo

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The evolution and escalation of bike-sharing programs (BSP) continue unabated. Since the sixties, many countries have introduced different models and strategies of BSP. These include variations ranging from dockless models to electronic real-time monitoring systems. Reasons for using this BSP include recreation, errands, work, etc. And there is all indication that complex, and more innovative rider-friendly systems are yet to be introduced. The objective of this paper is to analyze current variables established by different operators and streamline them identifying the most compelling ones using analytics. Given the contents of available databases, there is a lack of uniformity and common standard on what is required and what is not. Two factors appear to be common: user type (registered and unregistered, and duration of each trip). This article uses historical data provided by one operator based in the greater Washington, District of Columbia, USA area. Several variables including categorical and continuous data types were screened. Eight out of 18 were considered acceptable and significantly contribute to determining a useful and reliable predictive model. Bike-sharing systems have become popular in recent years all around the world. Although this trend has resulted in many studies on public cycling systems, there have been few previous studies on the factors influencing public bicycle travel behavior. A bike-sharing system is a computer-controlled system in which individuals can borrow bikes for a fee or free for a limited period. This study has identified unprecedented useful, and pragmatic parameters required in improving BSP ridership dynamics.

Keywords: sharing program, historical data, parameters, ridership dynamics, trip duration

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Authors: Adam Patterson

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This study analyzes the self-reported experiences of virtual reality users to develop insight into an optimal learning path for education within virtual reality. This research uses a sample of 1000 observations to statistically define factors influencing (i) immersion level and (ii) motion sickness rating for virtual reality experience respondents of college age. This paper recommends an efficient duration for each virtual reality session, to minimize sickness and maximize engagement, utilizing modern machine learning methods such as association rules. The goal of this research, in augmentation with previous literature, is to inform logistical decisions relating to implementation of pilot instruction for virtual reality at the collegiate level. Future research will include a Randomized Control Trial (RCT) to quantify the effect of virtual reality education on student learning outcomes and engagement measures. Current research aims to maximize the treatment effect within the RCT by optimizing the learning benefits of virtual reality. Results suggest significant gender heterogeneity amongst likelihood of reporting motion sickness. Females are 1.7 times more likely, than males, to report high levels of motion sickness resulting from a virtual reality experience. Regarding duration, respondents were 1.29 times more likely to select the lowest level of motion sickness after an engagement lasting between 24.3 and 42 minutes. Conversely, respondents between 42 to 60 minutes were 1.2 times more likely to select the higher levels of motion sickness.

Keywords: applications and integration of e-education, practices and cases in e-education, systems and technologies in e-education, technology adoption and diffusion of e-learning

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Authors: Michael C. Barbecho, Romeo B. Morcilla

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This study focused on the development of a solar powered front wheel drive electric trike for personal use and short distance travel, utilizing solar power and a variable speed transmission to adapt in places where varying road grades and unavailability of plug-in charging stations are of great problems. The actual performance of the vehicle was measured in terms of duration of charging using solar power, distance travel and battery power duration, top speed developed at full power, and load capacity. This project followed the research and development process which involved planning, designing, construction, and testing. Solar charging tests revealed that the vehicle requires 6 to 8 hours sunlight exposure to fully charge the batteries. At full charge, the vehicle can travel 35 km utilizing battery power down to 42%. Vehicle showed top speed of 25 kph at 0 to 3% road grade carrying a maximum load of 122 kg. The maximum climbing grade was 23% with the vehicle carrying a maximum load of 122 kg. Technically the project was feasible and can be a potential model for possible conversion of traditional Philippine made “pedicabs” and gasoline engine powered tricycle into modern electric vehicles. Moreover, it has several technical features and advantages over a commercialized electric vehicle such as the use solar charging system and variable speed power transmission and front drive power train for adaptability in any road gradient.

Keywords: electric vehicle, solar vehicles, front drive, solar, solar power

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Authors: Chor Nejmeddine, Ines Ben Omrane, Mohamed Abdelwahed

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In this paper, we present a posteriori analysis of the discretization of the heat equation by spectral element method. We apply Euler's implicit scheme in time and spectral method in space. We propose two families of error indicators, both of which are built from the residual of the equation and we prove that they satisfy some optimal estimates. We present some numerical results which are coherent with the theoretical ones.

Keywords: heat equation, spectral elements discretization, error indicators, Euler

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Authors: Sanja Jovanovic, Aleksandar Simic, Ognjan Skrobic, Dragan Masulovic, Aleksandra Djuric-Stefanovic

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Introduction: Achalasia is an idiopathic primary esophageal motility disorder characterized by esophageal peristalsis and impaired swallow-induced relaxation of the lower esophageal sphincter (LES). It is a rare disease that affects both genders with an incidence of 1/100.000 and a prevalence rate of 10/100,000 per year. Objective: Laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM) represents a therapy of choice for patients with achalasia, providing excellent outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the significance of computed tomography (CT) in analyzing achalasia subtypes and timed barium esophagogram (TBE) in evaluation of LHM success, as a part of standardized diagnostic protocol. Method: Fifty-one patients with achalasia, confirmed by manometric studies, in addition to standardized diagnostic methods, underwent CT and TBE. CT was done with multiplanar reconstruction, measuring the wall thickness above the esophago-gastric junction in the axial plane. TBE was performed preoperatively and two days postoperatively swallowing low-density barium sulfate, and plane upright frontal films were performed 1, 2 and 5 minutes after the ingestion. In all patients, LHM was done, and pre and postoperative height and weight of the barium column were compared. Results: According to CT findings we divided patients into 3 subtypes of achalasia according to wall thickness: < 4mm as subtype one, between 4 - 9mm as II, and > 10 mm as subtype 3. Correlation of manometric results, as a reference values, and CT findings indicated CT sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 70 % in establishing subtypes of achalasia. The preoperative values of TBE at 1, 2 and 5 minutes were: median barium column height 17.4 ± 7.4, 15.9 ± 6.2 and 13.9 ± 6.2 cm; median column width 5 ± 1.5, 4.7 ± 1.6 and 4.5 ± 1.8 cm respectively. LHM significantly reduced these values (height 7 ± 4.6, 5.8 ± 4.2, 3.7 ± 3.4 cm; width 2.9 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 1.3 and 2.4 ± 1.4 cm), indicating the quantitative estimates of emptying as excellent (p value < 0.01). Conclusion: CT has high sensitivity and specificity in evaluation of achalasia subtypes, and can be introduced as an additional method for standardized evaluation of these patients. The quantitative assessment of TBE based on measurements of the barium column is an accurate and beneficial method, which adequately estimates esophageal emptying success of LHM.

Keywords: achalasia, computed tomography, esophagography, myotomy

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Authors: Sofiya Rao, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in quantifying the aerosol climate forcing. The uncertainty is increasing from global to regional scale. This problem remains unresolved due to the large discrepancy in the representation of cloud processes in the climate models. Most of the studies on aerosol-cloud-climate interaction and aerosol-cloud-precipitation over Indian Ocean (like INDOEX, CAIPEEX campaign etc.) are restricted to either particular to one season or particular to one region. Here we developed a theoretical framework to quantify aerosol indirect radiative forcing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products of 15 years (2000-2015) period over the Indian Ocean. This framework relies on the observationally constrained estimate of the aerosol-induced change in cloud albedo. We partitioned the change in cloud albedo into the change in Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Effective Radius of Clouds (Reff) in response to an aerosol optical depth (AOD). Cloud albedo response to an increase in AOD is most sensitive in the range of LWP between 120-300 gm/m² for a range of Reff varying from 8-24 micrometer, which means aerosols are most sensitive to this range of LWP and Reff. Using this framework, aerosol forcing during a transition from indirect to semi-direct effect is also calculated. The outcome of this analysis shows best results over the Arabian Sea in comparison with the Bay of Bengal and the South Indian Ocean because of heterogeneity in aerosol spices over the Arabian Sea. Over the Arabian Sea during Winter Season the more absorbing aerosols are dominating, during Pre-monsoon dust (coarse mode aerosol particles) are more dominating. In winter and pre-monsoon majorly the aerosol forcing is more dominating while during monsoon and post-monsoon season meteorological forcing is more dominating. Over the South Indian Ocean, more or less same types of aerosol (Sea salt) are present. Over the Arabian Sea the Aerosol Indirect Radiative forcing are varying from -5 ± 4.5 W/m² for winter season while in other seasons it is reducing. The results provide observationally constrained estimates of aerosol indirect forcing in the Indian Ocean which can be helpful in evaluating the climate model performance in the context of such complex interactions.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction, aerosol-cloud-climate interaction, indirect radiative forcing, climate model

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Suraya Mohamad Nadzir, Badrol Ahmad, Norlia Berahim

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T91 steel has been used as construction material for superheater tubes in sub-critical and super critical boiler. This steel was developed with higher creep strength property as compared to conventional low alloy steel. However, this steel is also susceptible to materials degradation due to its sensitivity to heat treatment especially Post Weld Heat Treatment (PWHT) after weld repair process. Review of PWHT process shows that the holding temperature may different from one batch to other batch of samples depending on the material composition. This issue was reviewed by many researchers and one of the potential solutions is the development of weld repair process without PWHT. This process is possible with the use of temper bead welding technique. However, study has shown the hardness value across the weld joint with exception of PWHT is much higher compare to recommended hardness value. Based on the above findings, a study to evaluate the microstructure and hardness changes of T91 weld joint after heating at 560°C at varying duration was carried out. This study was carried out to evaluate the possibility of self-tempering process during in-service period. In this study, the T91 weld joint was heat-up in air furnace at 560°C for duration of 50 and 150 hours. The heating process was controlled with heating rate of 200°C/hours, and cooling rate about 100°C/hours. Following this process, samples were prepared for the microstructure examination and hardness evaluation. Results have shown full tempered martensite structure and acceptance hardness value was achieved after 50 hours heating. This result shows that the thin component such as T91 superheater tubes is able to self-tempering during service hour.

Keywords: T91, weld-joint, tempered martensite, self-tempering

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Authors: Abdullah Saeidi, Aydin Gülses, Christan Flörke

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Skin cancer of the face region is the most common type of malignancy and surgical excision is the preferred approach. However, the clinical long term results reported in the literature are still controversial. Objectives: To describe; 1. Demographical characteristics 2. Affected site, distribution and TNM classification regarding tumor type 3. Surgical aspects • Surgical removal: excision principles, safety margins, the need for secondary resection, primary reconstruction/ defect closure, anesthesia protocol, duration of hospital stay (if any) • Secondary intervention for defect closure/reconstruction: Flap technique, anesthesia protocol, duration of hospital stay (if any), postoperative wound management etc. 4. Tumor recurrences 5. Clinical outcomes 6. Studying the possible therapy approach throw Biostatistical relation and correlation between multiple Histological, diagnostics and clinical Faktors. following surgical ablation of the skin cancer of the head and neck region. Methods: Selection and statistical analysis of medical records of patients who had admitted to the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig Holstein, Campus Kiel during the period of 2015-2019 will be retrospectively evaluated. Data will be collected via ORBIS Information-Management-System (ORBIS AG, Saarbrücken, Germany).

Keywords: non melanoma skin cancer, face skin cancer, skin reconstruction, non melanoma skin cancer recurrence, non melanoma skin cancer metastases

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

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In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, gaussian mixture models, learning motion patterns, tracked robots for urban search and rescue

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Authors: Hassan Al Salman

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We consider a nonlinear parabolic cross diffusion model arising in applied mathematics. A fully practical piecewise linear finite element approximation of the model is studied. By using entropy-type inequalities and compactness arguments, existence of a global weak solution is proved. Providing further regularity of the solution of the model, some uniqueness results and error estimates are established. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed.

Keywords: cross diffusion model, entropy-type inequality, finite element approximation, numerical analysis

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Authors: Binaya Tamang, Buddhi R. Pokharel, Narayan Gautam, Puspa R. Dhakal, Yuresh Twayana

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Background and Objective: Microalbuminuria is often regarded as a sign of end-organ damage due to hypertension, with an increased risk for renal diseases. The present study was designed to find the prevalence of microalbuminuria in hypertensive patients by determining albumin creatinine ratio (ACR) and the association of ACR and microalbuminuria status with different stages and duration of hypertension (HTN). Also, to establish the correlation of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) with various parameters viz; ACR, urinary microalbumin (UMA), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urinary creatinine (Ucreat), serum creatinine (Screat), and find out their significance among HTN and ACR status. Materials and Methods: A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted in the Department of Biochemistry in collaboration with the Department of Internal Medicine, UCMS, Bhairahawa, Nepal from April 2019 to September 2019 after obtaining ethical approval from institutional review committee (IRC), UCMS. A total of 120 hypertensive patients were enrolled whose blood, and spot urine samples were taken. eGFR was calculated by using Cockcroft-Gault formula after determining Screat while ACR was calculated after measuring Ucreat and UMA from the spot urine sample. Creatinine was estimated from modified jaffes’ reaction, whereas urinary micro albumin was done by Mispa i3 analyzer. Data were analyzed by using SPSS. 20 using p-value ≤ 0.05 as statistically significant. Results: In our study, the highest enrolled were grade II HTN (36.7%) followed by normal (33.3%), grade I (20.8%) and grade III (9.2%). Evaluating the ACR status, 19.2% were microalbuminuria, and the rest were normal. Though the ACR status (normal and microalbuminuria) was not statistically significant with HTN status (P=0.860) and the duration of HTN status (P=0.165), 5 (45.5%) out of 11 grade III HTN were microalbuminuria and the prevalence was also higher for longer duration .i.e., more than 10 years. In microalbuminuria, both the SBP (p=0.023, r=0.471) and DBP (P=0.034, r= 0.444) were strongly and positively correlated with Screat, in contrast to eGFR, which was negatively but weakly correlated. With the significant difference between the HTN group, the mean ACR (P=0.047) and UMA (P=0.02) were found to be highest among grade III patients, i.e., 84.3 ± 113.3 mg/gm. and 88.4 ± 83.9 mg/l respectively. The mean eGFR (64.2 ± 24.8 vs 77.2 ± 18.1 ml/min) was considerably lower in microalbuminuria ( p=0.026) than the normal in contrast to the SBP (160 ± 33.7 vs. 146.6 ± 19.5 mm of Hg) which was significantly higher (P=0.008). Among the different BMI category, the mean ACR was found to be significantly different (P= 0.01) with the highest value in underweight (115.2 ± 51.5 mg/gm.) and lowest in overweight (31.8 ± 4.3 mg/gm.). Conclusion: The study recommends that the microalbuminuria can be a very useful and imperative predictor of deranged kidney functions in hypertensive patients. The high value of ACR and UMA in hypertensive patients along with significant increased Screat, SBP whereas decreased eGFR in microalbuminuria patients explicitly supports the above statement.

Keywords: albumin creatinine ratio, hypertension, microalbuminuria, renal disease

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Authors: P. G. S. Madushani, L. D. Illeperuma

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Abstract Noise is one of the most common physical hazards in industrial settings. The prevalence of Noise Induced Hearing Loss (NIHL) is on the rise with increasedduration of exposure and the increase in the severity of hearing loss. The purpose of the study was to determine auditory effects among textile workers and to establish associations between the degree of hearing loss and exposure duration, degree of hearing loss and noise level and the proportion of hearing related complaints. A cross sectional descriptive study using purposive sampling was carried out. An interviewer administered questionnaire and Distortion Product Oto Acoustic Emission (DPOAE) hearing screening on 127 (72 female and 55 male) textile workers of the selected textile plant in Seeduwa, Sri Lanka was done (Age: M= 31.16, SD=7.75). Noise measurements were done in six sections of the factory and average noise levels were obtained. Diagnostic hearing evaluations were done for 60 (57.75%) subjects, referred from the DPOAE hearing screening test. The degree of hearing loss and the exposure duration had a significant association in the high frequency region of 4 kHz to 8 kHz (p < 0.05). Noise levels fluctuated between 90.3±0.8 dBA and 50.6. ±0.52 dBA. 30.83% of workers reported having NIHL. Most of the workers (33.9%) complained difficulty in conversing in noisy backgrounds. Other complaints as tinnitus, dizziness, ear fullness and headache were reported in less than 30%. workers who were exposed to noise for more than 15 years were affected with NIHL in the high frequency region. Administrative controls and engineering controls need to be implemented to manage hazardous noise levels in industrial settings. Hearing Conservation Programs should be initiated and implemented for textile workers.

Keywords: textile industry, NIHL, degree of hearing loss, noise levels, auditory effects

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Authors: David C. Boettiger, Tracy Kuo Lin, Maram Almansour, Mariam M. Hamza, Reem Alsukait, Christopher H. Herbst, Nada Altheyab, Ayman Afghani, Faisal Kattan

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Background The number of people aged greater than 65 years per 100 people aged 20–64 years is expected to almost double in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between 2020 and 2030. We therefore aimed to quantify the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in KSA between 2020 and 2030, and the impact this will have on the national health budget. Methods Ten priority NCDs were selected: ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, osteoarthritis, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. Age- and sex-specific prevalence was projected for each priority NCD between 2020 and 2030. Treatment coverage rates were applied to the projected prevalence estimates to calculate the number of patients incurring treatment costs for each condition. For each priority NCD, the average cost-of-illness was estimated based on published literature. The impact of changes to our base-case model in terms of assumed disease prevalence, treatment coverage, and costs of care, coming into effect from 2023 onwards, were explored. Results The prevalence estimates for colorectal cancer and stroke were estimated to almost double between 2020 and 2030 (97% and 88% increase, respectively). The only priority NCD prevalence projected to increase by less than 60% between 2020 and 2030 was for depression (22% increase). It is estimated that the total cost of managing priority NCDs in KSA will increase from USD 19.8 billion in 2020 to USD 32.4 billion in 2030 (an increase of USD 12.6 billion or 63%). The largest USD value increases were projected for osteoarthritis (USD 4.3 billion), diabetes (USD 2.4 billion), and dementia (USD 1.9 billion). In scenario analyses, our 2030 projection for the total cost of managing priority NCDs varied between USD 29.2 billion - USD 35.7 billion. Conclusions Managing the growing NCD burden in KSA’s aging population will require substantial healthcare spending increases over the coming years.

Keywords: aging, non communicable disease, costs, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: H. Al-Qassem, L. Cheng, Y. Pan

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In this paper, we establish sharp bounds for oscillatory singular integrals with an arbitrary real polynomial phase P. Our kernels are allowed to be rough both on the unit sphere and in the radial direction. We show that the bounds grow no faster than log (deg(P)), which is optimal and was first obtained by Parissis and Papadimitrakis for kernels without any radial roughness. Our results substantially improve many previously known results. Among key ingredients of our methods are an L¹→L² sharp estimate and using extrapolation.

Keywords: oscillatory singular integral, rough kernel, singular integral, orlicz spaces, block spaces, extrapolation, L^{p} boundedness

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Authors: U. Pangnakorn, S. Kanlaya

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The efficiency of wood vinegar mixed with each individual of three plants extract such as: citronella grass (Cymbopogon nardus), neem seed (Azadirachta indica A. Juss), and yam bean seed (Pachyrhizus erosus Urb.) were tested against the second instar larvae of housefly (Musca domestica L.). Steam distillation was used for extraction of the citronella grass while neem and yam bean were simple extracted by fermentation with ethyl alcohol. Toxicity test was evaluated in laboratory based on two methods of larvicidal bioassay: topical application method (contact poison) and feeding method (stomach poison). Larval mortality was observed daily and larval survivability was recorded until the survived larvae developed to pupae and adults. The study resulted that treatment of wood vinegar mixed with citronella grass showed the highest larval mortality by topical application method (50.0%) and by feeding method (80.0%). However, treatment of mixed wood vinegar and neem seed showed the longest pupal duration to 25 day and 32 days for topical application method and feeding method respectively. Additional, larval duration on treated M. domestica larvae was extended to 13 days for topical application method and 11 days for feeding method. Thus, the feeding method gave higher efficiency compared with the topical application method.

Keywords: housefly (Musca domestica L.), neem seed (Azadirachta indica), citronella grass (Cymbopogon nardus), yam bean seed (Pachyrhizus erosus), mortality

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Authors: M. G. M. Khan, V. D. Prasad, D. K. Rao

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In this manuscript, we discuss the problem of determining the optimum stratification of a study (or main) variable based on the auxiliary variable that follows a uniform distribution. If the stratification of survey variable is made using the auxiliary variable it may lead to substantial gains in precision of the estimates. This problem is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP), which turn out to multistage decision problem and is solved using dynamic programming technique.

Keywords: auxiliary variable, dynamic programming technique, nonlinear programming problem, optimum stratification, uniform distribution

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Authors: Ewa Mojs, Katarzyna Wiechec, Maia Kubiak, Wlodzimierz Samborski

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Interactions between mother’s psychological condition and child’s health status are complex and derive from the nature of the mother-child relationship. The aim of the study was to analyze the issue of anxiety amongst mothers of short children in the aspect of growth hormone therapy. The study was based on a group of 101 mothers of originally short-statured children – 70 with growth hormone deficiency (GHD) treated with recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) and 31 undergoing the diagnostic process, without any treatment. Collected medical data included child's gender, height and weight, chronological age, bone age delay, and rhGH therapy duration. For all children, the height SDS and BMI SDS were calculated. To evaluate anxiety in mothers, the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) was used. Obtained results revealed low trait anxiety levels, with no statistically significant differences between the groups. State anxiety levels were average when mothers of all children were analyzed together, but when divided into groups, statistical differences appeared. Mothers of children without diagnosis and treatment had significantly higher levels of state anxiety than mothers of children with GHD receiving appropriate therapy. These results show, that the occurrence of growth failure in children is not related to high maternal trait anxiety, but the lack of diagnosis and lack of appropriate treatment generates higher levels of maternal state anxiety than the process of rh GH therapy in the offspring. Commencement of growth hormone therapy induce a substantial reduction of the state anxiety in mothers, and the duration of treatment causes its further decrease.

Keywords: anxiety, development, growth hormone deficiency, motherhood

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Authors: Min Shi

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State of the art research with Artificial Neural Networks for the downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCMs) mainly uses back-propagation algorithm as a training approach. This paper introduces another training approach of ANNs, Evolutionary Algorithm. The combined algorithm names neuroevolutionary (NE) algorithm. We investigate and evaluate the use of the NE algorithms in statistical downscaling by generating temperature estimates at interior points given information from a lattice of surrounding locations. The results of our experiments indicate that NE algorithms can be efficient alternative downscaling methods for daily temperatures.

Keywords: temperature, downscaling, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Bharat Kumar, Deepak Kumar, Vijay Chaudhry

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Zirconium alloys are used as core components of nuclear reactors due to their high wear resistance, good corrosion properties, and good mechanical stability at high temperatures. The present work simulates the contact between the calandria tube and the liquid injection shutdown system (LISS) nozzle. The Calandria tube is the outer covering of the pressure tube. Water flows inside the pressure tube through fuel claddings which produces vibration in the pressure tube along with vibration in the calandria tube. Fretting wear takes place at the point of contact between the calandria tube and the LISS nozzle. Fretting tests were performed under different conditions, such as; varying fretting duration (i.e., 1 to 4 hours), varying frequency (i.e., 5 to 6.5 Hz), and varying amplitude (100 to 400 µm). The formation of the oxide layer was observed during the fretting wear test; as a result, the worn product. The worn surfaces were analyzed with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to analyze the wear mechanism involved in the fretting test, and Energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) and Raman spectroscopy were used to confirm the presence of an oxide layer on the worn surface. The oxide layer becomes more uniform with fretting duration in case of water submerged condition as compared to dry contact condition. The oxide layer is deeply removed at high amplitude due to the change of wear mechanism from adhesion to abrasion, as confirmed by the presence of micro ploughing and micro cutting. Low amplitude fretting favors the formation of the tribo-oxide layer.

Keywords: tribo-oxide layer, wear, mechanically mixed layer, zircaloy

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