Search results for: community social vulnerability

Authors: Cristina Maria Mendoza Sanchez, Maria Angeles Navarro Perán

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Introduction: Nursing as a profession, from its initial formation and after its development in practice, has been built and identified mainly from its technical competence and professionalization within the positivist approach of the XIX century that provides a conception of the disease built on the basis of to the biomedical paradigm, where the care provided is more focused on the physiological processes and the disease than on the suffering person understood as a whole. The main issue that is in need of study here is a review of the nursing profession's history to get to know how the nursing profession was before the XIX century. It is unclear if there were organizations or people with knowledge about looking after others or if many people survived by chance. The holistic care, in which the appearance of the disease directly affects all its dimensions: physical, emotional, cognitive, social and spiritual. It is not a concept from the 21st century. It is common practice, most probably since established life in this world, with the final purpose of covering all these perspectives through quality care. Objective: In this paper, we describe and analyze the history of education in nursing learning in terms of reviewing and analysing theoretical foundations of clinical teaching and learning in nursing, with the final purpose of determining and describing the development of the nursing profession along the history. Method: We have done a descriptive systematic review study, doing a systematically searched of manuscripts and articles in the following health science databases: Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science, Temperamentvm and CINAHL. The selection of articles has been made according to PRISMA criteria, doing a critical reading of the full text using the CASPe method. A compliment to this, we have read a range of historical and contemporary sources to support the review, such as manuals of Florence Nightingale and John of God as primary manuscripts to establish the origin of modern nursing and her professionalization. We have considered and applied ethical considerations of data processing. Results: After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria in our search, in Pubmed, Scopus, Web of Science, Temperamentvm and CINAHL, we have obtained 51 research articles. We have analyzed them in such a way that we have distinguished them by year of publication and the type of study. With the articles obtained, we can see the importance of our background as a profession before modern times in public health and as a review of our past to face challenges in the near future. Discussion: The important influence of key figures other than Nightingale has been overlooked and it emerges that nursing management and development of the professional body has a longer and more complex history than is generally accepted. Conclusions: There is a paucity of studies on the subject of the review to be able to extract very precise evidence and recommendations about nursing before modern times. But even so, as more representative data, an increase in research about nursing history has been observed. In light of the aspects analyzed, the need for new research in the history of nursing emerges from this perspective; in order to germinate studies of the historical construction of care before the XIX century and theories created then. We can assure that pieces of knowledge and ways of care were taught before the XIX century, but they were not called theories, as these concepts were created in modern times.

Keywords: nursing history, nursing theory, Saint John of God, Florence Nightingale, learning, nursing education

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Authors: O. F. Elkommos

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“Humour studies” is an interdisciplinary research area that is relatively recent. It interests researchers from the disciplines of psychology, sociology, medicine, nursing, in the work place, gender studies, among others, and certainly teaching, language learning, linguistics, and literature. Linguistic theories of humour research are numerous; some of which are of interest to the present study. In spite of the fact that humour courses are now taught in universities around the world in the Egyptian context it is not included. The purpose of the present study is two-fold: to review the state of arts and to show how linguistic theories of humour can be possibly used as an art and craft of teaching and of learning in EFL literature classes. In the present study linguistic theories of humour were applied to selected literary texts to interpret humour as an intrinsic artistic communicative competence challenge. Humour in the area of linguistics was seen as a fifth component of communicative competence of the second language leaner. In literature it was studied as satire, irony, wit, or comedy. Linguistic theories of humour now describe its linguistic structure, mechanism, function, and linguistic deviance. Semantic Script Theory of Verbal Humor (SSTH), General Theory of Verbal Humor (GTVH), Audience Based Theory of Humor (ABTH), and their extensions and subcategories as well as the pragmatic perspective were employed in the analyses. This research analysed the linguistic semantic structure of humour, its mechanism, and how the audience reader (teacher or learner) becomes an interactive interpreter of the humour. This promotes humour competence together with the linguistic, social, cultural, and discourse communicative competence. Studying humour as part of the literary texts and the perception of its function in the work also brings its positive association in class for educational purposes. Humour is by default a provoking/laughter-generated device. Incongruity recognition, perception and resolving it, is a cognitive mastery. This cognitive process involves a humour experience that lightens up the classroom and the mind. It establishes connections necessary for the learning process. In this context the study examined selected narratives to exemplify the application of the theories. It is, therefore, recommended that the theories would be taught and applied to literary texts for a better understanding of the language. Students will then develop their language competence. Teachers in EFL/ESL classes will teach the theories, assist students apply them and interpret text and in the process will also use humour. This is thus easing students' acquisition of the second language, making the classroom an enjoyable, cheerful, self-assuring, and self-illuminating experience for both themselves and their students. It is further recommended that courses of humour research studies should become an integral part of higher education curricula in Egypt.

Keywords: ABTH, deviance, disjuncture, episodic, GTVH, humour competence, humour comprehension, humour in the classroom, humour in the literary texts, humour research linguistic theories, incongruity-resolution, isotopy-disjunction, jab line, longer text joke, narrative story line (macro-micro), punch line, six knowledge resource, SSTH, stacks, strands, teaching linguistics, teaching literature, TEFL, TESL

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Authors: Lucas M. Furlan, Cesar A. Moreira, Jepherson F. Sales, Guilherme T. Bueno, Manuel E. Ferreira, Carla V. S. Coelho, Vania Rosolen

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Located in the western part of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, the study area consists of a savanna environment, represented by sedimentary plateau and a soil cover composed by lateritic and hydromorphic soils - in the latter, occurring the deferruginization and concentration of high-alumina clays, exploited as refractory material. In the hydromorphic topographic depressions (wetlands) the hydropedogical relationships are little known, but it is observed that in times of rainfall, the depressed region behaves like a natural seasonal reservoir - which suggests that the wetlands on the surface of the plateau are places of recharge of the aquifer. The aquifer recharge areas are extremely important for the sustainable social, economic and environmental development of societies. The understanding of hydrodynamics in relation to the functioning of the ferruginous and hydromorphic lateritic soils system in the savanna environment is a subject rarely explored in the literature, especially its understanding through the joint application of geoprocessing by UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) and electrical tomography. The objective of this work is to understand the hydrogeological dynamics in a wetland (with an area of 426.064 m²), in the Brazilian savanna,as well as the understanding of the subsurface architecture of hydromorphic depressions in relation to the recharge of aquifers. The wetland was compartmentalized in three different regions, according to the geoprocessing. Hydraulic conductivity studies were performed in each of these three portions. Electrical tomography was performed on 9 lines of 80 meters in length and spaced 10 meters apart (direction N45), and a line with 80 meters perpendicular to all others. With the data, it was possible to generate a 3D cube. The integrated analysis showed that the area behaves like a natural seasonal reservoir in the months of greater precipitation (December – 289mm; January – 277,9mm; February – 213,2mm), because the hydraulic conductivity is very low in all areas. In the aerial images, geotag correction of the images was performed, that is, the correction of the coordinates of the images by means of the corrected coordinates of the Positioning by Precision Point of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE-PPP). Later, the orthomosaic and the digital surface model (DSM) were generated, which with specific geoprocessing generated the volume of water that the wetland can contain - 780,922m³ in total, 265,205m³ in the region with intermediate flooding and 49,140m³ in the central region, where a greater accumulation of water was observed. Through the electrical tomography it was possible to identify that up to the depth of 6 meters the water infiltrates vertically in the central region. From the 8 meters depth, the water encounters a more resistive layer and the infiltration begins to occur horizontally - tending to concentrate the recharge of the aquifer to the northeast and southwest of the wetland. The hydrodynamics of the area is complex and has many challenges in its understanding. The next step is to relate hydrodynamics to the evolution of the landscape, with the enrichment of high-alumina clays, and to propose a management model for the seasonal reservoir.

Keywords: electrical tomography, hydropedology, unmanned aerial vehicle, water resources management

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Authors: Emma Pope, Demos Parapanos

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Rural tourism has become more obvious and prevalent, with tourists’ increasingly seeking authentic experiences. This movement accelerated post-Covid, putting destinations in danger of reaching levels of saturation called ‘overtourism’. Whereas the phenomenon of overtourism has been frequently discussed in the urban context by academics and practitioners over recent years, it has hardly been referred to in the context of rural tourism, where perhaps it is even more difficult to manage. Rural tourism was historically considered small-scale, marked by its traditional character and by having little impact on nature and rural society. The increasing number of rural areas experiencing overtourism, however, demonstrates the need for new approaches, especially as the impacts and enablers of overtourism are context specific. Cumbria, with approximately 47 million visitors each year, and 23,000 operational enterprises, is one of these rural areas experiencing overtourism in the UK. Using the county of Cumbria as an example, this paper aims to explore better planning and management in rural destinations by clustering the area into rural and ‘urban-rural’ tourism zones. To achieve the aim, this study uses secondary data from a variety of sources to identify variables relating to visitor economy development and demand. These data include census data relating to population and employment, tourism industry-specific data including tourism revenue, visitor activities, and accommodation stock, and big data sources such as Trip Advisor and All Trails. The combination of these data sources provides a breadth of tourism-related variables. The subsequent analysis of this data draws upon various validated models. For example, tourism and hospitality employment density, territorial tourism pressure, and accommodation density. In addition to these statistical calculations, other data are utilized to further understand the context of these zones, for example, tourist services, attractions, and activities. The data was imported into ARCGIS where the density of the different variables is visualized on maps. This study aims to provide an understanding of the geographical context of visitor economy development and tourist behavior in rural areas. The findings contribute to an understanding of the spatial dynamics of tourism within the region of Cumbria through the creation of thematized maps. Different zones of tourism industry clusters are identified, which include elements relating to attractions, enterprises, infrastructure, tourism employment and economic impact. These maps visualize hot and cold spots relating to a variety of tourism contexts. It is believed that the strategy used to provide a visual overview of tourism development and demand in Cumbria could provide a strategic tool for rural areas to better plan marketing opportunities and avoid overtourism. These findings can inform future sustainability policy and destination management strategies within the areas through an understanding of the processes behind the emergence of both hot and cold spots. It may mean that attract and disperse needs to be reviewed in terms of a strategic option. In other words, to use sector or zonal policies for the individual hot or cold areas with transitional zones dependent upon local economic, social and environmental factors.

Keywords: overtourism, rural tourism, sustainable tourism, tourism planning, tourism zones

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Authors: Fstemeh Rais Esmaili, Ehsan Ranjbar

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Pedestrian streets as one type of urban public spaces have an important role in improving the quality of urban life. In Iran, planning and designing of pedestrian streets is in its primary steps. In spite of starting this approach in Iran, and designing several pedestrian streets, there are still not organized studies about quality assessment of pedestrian streets. As a result, the strength and weakness points of the initial experiences have not been utilized. This inattention to quality assessment have caused designing pedestrian streets to be limited to just vehicles traffic control and preliminary actions like paving; so that, special potentials of pedestrian streets for creating social, livable and dynamic public spaces have not been used. This article, as an organized study about quality assessment of pedestrian streets in Iran, tries to reach two main goals: first, introducing a framework for quality assessment of pedestrian streets in Iran, and second, creating a context for improving the quality of pedestrian streets especially for further experiences. The main research methods are description and context analyzing. With respect to comparative analysis of ideas about quality, considering international and local case studies and analyzing existing condition of Saf Pedestrian Street, a particular model for quality assessment has been introduced. In this model, main components and assessment criteria have been presented. On the basis of this model, questionnaire and checklist for assessment have been prepared. The questionnaire and interview have been used to assess qualities which are in direct contact with people and the checklist has been used for analyzing visual qualities by authors through observation. Some results of questionnaire and checklist show that 7 of 11 primary components, diversity, flexibility, cleanness, legibility and imaginably, identity, livability, form and physical setting are rated low and very low in quality degree. Three components, efficiency, comfort and distinctiveness, have medium and low quality degree and one component, access, linkage and permeability has high quality degree. Therefore, based on implemented analyzing process, Saf Pedestrian Street needs to be improved and these quality improvement priorities are determined based on presented criteria. Adaption of final results with existing condition illustrates the shortage of services for satisfying user’s needs, inflexibility and impossibility of using spaces in various times, lack of facilities for different climatic conditions, lack of facilities such as drinking fountain, inappropriate designing of existing urban furniture like garbage cans, and creating pollution and unsuitable view, lack of visual attractions, neglecting disabled persons in designing entrances, shortage of benches and their undesirable designing, lack of vegetation, absence of special characters making it different from other streets, preventing people taking part in the space causing lack of affiliation, lack of appropriate elements for leisure time and lack of exhilaration in the space. On the other hand, these results present high access and permeability, high safety, less sound pollution and more relief, comfortable movement along the way due to suitable pavement and economic efficiency, as the strength points of Saf pedestrian street.

Keywords: pedestrian streets, quality assessment, quality criteria, Saf Pedestrian Street

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Authors: Judith Sue Hwa Joo

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Guanyin (Avalokiteśvara in Sanskrit), the Bodhisattva of Mercy and Compassion, is the most widely worshipped Buddhist Divinity in Chinese societies and is also believed by more than half of Asian populations across various countries. The most overwhelming reason for the popularity of Guanyin in Chinese societies is, according to the Lotus Sutra, that Guanyin would apperceive voices of those suffering from immense afflictions and troubles, and liberate them upon crying for his/her holy name with wholeheartedness. Its pervasive social influence has spanned more than two thousand years and is still deeply affecting the lives of most Chinese people. This study aimed to investigate whether Guanyin Worship has evolved and changed in modern Chinese societies across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan and China, albeit having the same language and culture, have been territorially divided and governed by two different political regimes for over 70 years. It would be scientifically intriguing to unveil any substantial changes in religious behaviors in the context of Guanyin Worship. A comprehensive anonymous questionnaire survey in Chinese communities was conducted from October 2017 to May 2019 across various countries, mostly in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong areas. Since the religious survey is officially prohibited in China, the study was difficult and could only be exercised by means of snowball sampling. Demographic data (age, sex, education, religious belief) were registered and Guanyin’s salvation functions under various confronting situations were investigated. Psychological dimensions of religious belief in Guanyin were probed in terms of the worship experience, the willingness of veneration, and egoistic or altruistic ideations. A literature review on documented functional attributes was carried out in parallel for comparison analyses with traditional roles. Effective 1123 out of 1139 samples were obtained. Statistical analysis revealed that Guanyin Worship is still commonly practiced and deeply rooted in the hearts of all Chinese people regardless of gender, age, education, and residential area, even though they may not enshrine Guanyin at home nowadays. The conventional roles of Guanyin Bodhisattva are still valid and best satisfy the real interests of lifestyles in modern times. When comparing the traditional Buddhist Sutra and the documented literature, the divine power of modern Guanyin has notably empowered to recover, protect and transform fetal and infant spirits due to the sexual liberation, increased abortion rate, gender awakening and enhanced female autonomy in the reproductive decision. However, the One-Child policy may have critically impacted the trajectory of Guanyin Worship so that people in China prevail over those in Taiwan praying for aborted lives or premature deaths. Furthermore, particularly in Hong Kong and Macao, Guanyin not only serves as the sea guardian for the fishermen but also additional services a new function as the God of Wealth. The divine powers and salvation functions of Guanyin are indeed evolving and expanding to comply with the modern psychosocial, cultural and societal needs. This study sheds light on the modernization process of the two-thousand-year-old Guanyin Worship of contemporary Chinese societies.

Keywords: Buddhism, Guanyin, religious behavior, salvation function

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Authors: Natàlia Garcia Soler, Timothy Moss

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Despite the multiple benefits of sustainable urban drainage, as demonstrated in numerous case studies across the world, urban rainwater harvesting techniques are generally restricted to isolated model projects. The leap from niche to mainstream has, in most cities, proved an elusive goal. Why policies promoting rainwater harvesting are limited in their widespread implementation has seldom been subjected to systematic analysis. Much of the literature on the policy, planning and institutional contexts of these techniques focus either on their potential benefits or on project design, but very rarely on a critical-constructive analysis of past experiences of implementation. Moreover, the vast majority of these contributions are restricted to single-case studies. There is a dearth of knowledge with respect to, firstly, policy implementation processes and, secondly, multi-case analysis. Insights from both, the authors argue, are essential to inform more effective rainwater harvesting in cities in the future. This paper presents preliminary findings from a research project on rainwater harvesting in cities from a social science perspective that is funded by the Swedish Research Foundation (Formas). This project – UrbanRain – is examining the challenges and opportunities of mainstreaming rainwater harvesting in three European cities. The paper addresses two research questions: firstly, what lessons can be learned on suitable policy incentives and planning instruments for rainwater harvesting from a meta-analysis of the relevant international literature and, secondly, how far these lessons are reflected in a study of past and ongoing rainwater harvesting projects in a European forerunner city. This two-tier approach frames the structure of the paper. We present, first, the results of the literature analysis on policy and planning issues of urban rainwater harvesting. Here, we analyze quantitatively and qualitatively the literature of the past 15 years on this topic in terms of thematic focus, issues addressed and key findings and draw conclusions on research gaps, highlighting the need for more studies on implementation factors, actor interests, institutional adaptation and multi-level governance. In a second step we focus in on the experiences of rainwater harvesting in Berlin and present the results of a mapping exercise on a wide variety of projects implemented there over the last 30 years. Here, we develop a typology to characterize the rainwater harvesting projects in terms of policy issues (what problems and goals are targeted), project design (which kind of solutions are envisaged), project implementation (how and when they were implemented), location (whether they are in new or existing urban developments) and actors (which stakeholders are involved and how), paying particular attention to the shifting institutional framework in Berlin. Mapping and categorizing these projects is based on a combination of document analysis and expert interviews. The paper concludes by synthesizing the findings, identifying how far the goals, governance structures and instruments applied in the Berlin projects studied reflect the findings emerging from the meta-analysis of the international literature on policy and planning issues of rainwater harvesting and what implications these findings have for mainstreaming such techniques in future practice.

Keywords: institutional framework, planning, policy, project implementation, urban rainwater management

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Authors: B. S. Premalatha, Mereen Rose Babu, Vaishali Prabhu

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Background: Dysphagia must be assessed, either subjectively or objectively, in order to properly address the swallowing difficulty. Providing therapeutic care to patients with dysphagia via tele mode was one approach for providing clinical services during the COVID-19 epidemic. As a result, the teleassessment of dysphagia has increased in India. Aim: This study aimed to identify challenges faced by Indian SLPs while providing teleassessment to individuals with dysphagia during the outbreak of COVID-19 from 2020 to 2021. Method: After receiving approval from the institute's institutional review board and ethics committee, the current study was carried out. The study was cross-sectional in nature and lasted from 2020 to 2021. The study enrolled participants who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria of the study. It was decided to recruit roughly 246 people based on the sample size calculations. The research was done in three stages: questionnaire development and content validation, questionnaire administration. Five speech and hearing professionals' content verified the questionnaire for faults and clarity. Participants received questionnaires via various social media platforms such as e-mail and WhatsApp, which were written in Microsoft Word and then converted to Google Forms. SPSS software was used to examine the data. Results: In light of the obstacles that Indian SLPs encounter, the study's findings were examined. Only 135 people responded. During the COVID-19 lockdowns, 38% of participants said they did not deal with dysphagia patients. After the lockout, 70.4% of SLPs kept working with dysphagia patients, while 29.6% did not. From the beginning of the oromotor examination, the main problems in completing tele evaluation of dysphagia have been highlighted. Around 37.5% of SLPs said they don't undertake the OPME online because of difficulties doing the evaluation, such as the need for repeated instructions from patients and family members and trouble visualizing structures in various positions. The majority of SLPs' online assessments were inefficient and time-consuming. A bigger percentage of SLPs stated that they will not advocate tele evaluation in dysphagia to their colleagues. SLPs' use of dysphagia assessment has decreased as a result of the epidemic. When it came to the amount of food, the majority of people proposed a small amount. Apart from placing the patient for assessment and gaining less cooperation from the family, most SLPs found that Internet speed was a source of concern and a barrier. Hearing impairment and the presence of a tracheostomy in patients with dysphagia proved to be the most difficult conditions to treat online. For patients with NPO, the majority of SLPs did not advise tele-evaluation. In the anterior region of the oral cavity, oral meal residue was more visible. The majority of SLPs reported more anterior than posterior leakage. Even while the majority of SLPs could detect aspiration by coughing, many found it difficult to discern the gurgling tone of speech after swallowing. Conclusion: The current study sheds light on the difficulties that Indian SLPs experience when assessing dysphagia via tele mode, indicating that tele-assessment of dysphagia is still to gain importance in India.

Keywords: dysphagia, teleassessment, challenges, Indian SLP

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Authors: Faheemah N. Mustafaa, Tamarie Macon, Tabbye Chavous

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A major concern of university leaders worldwide is how to create environments where students from diverse racial/ethnic, national, and cultural backgrounds can thrive. Over the past decade or so in the United States, African American women have done exceedingly well in terms of college enrollment, academic performance, and completion. However, the relative academic successes of African American women in higher education has in some ways overshadowed social challenges many Black women continue to encounter on college campuses in the United States. Within predominantly White institutions (PWIs) in particular, there is consistent evidence that many Black students experience racially hostile climates. However, research studies on racial climates within PWIs have mostly focused on cross-sectional comparisons of minority and majority group experiences, and few studies have examined campus racial climate in relation to short- and longer-term well-being. One longitudinal study reported that African American women’s psychological well-being was positively related to their comfort in cross-racial interactions (a concept closely related to campus climate). Thus, our primary research question was: Do African American women’s perceptions of campus climate (tension and positive association) during their freshman year predict their reports of psychological distress and well-being (self-acceptance) during their sophomore year? Participants were part of a longitudinal survey examining African American college students’ academic identity development, particularly in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields. The final subsample included 134 self-identified African American/Black women enrolled in PWIs. Accounting for background characteristics (mother’s education, family income, interracial contact, and prior levels of outcomes), we employed hierarchical regression to examine relationships between campus racial climate during freshman year and psychological adjustment one year later. Both regression models significantly predicted African American women’s psychological outcomes (for distress, F(7,91)= 4.34, p < .001; and for self-acceptance, F(7,90)= 4.92, p < .001). Although none of the controls were significant predictors, perceptions of racial tension on campus were associated with both distress and self-acceptance. More perceptions of tension were related to African American women’s greater psychological distress the following year (B= 0.22, p= .01). Additionally, racial tension predicted later self-acceptance in the expected direction: Higher first-year reports of racial tension were related to less positive attitudes toward the self during the sophomore year (B= -0.16, p= .04). However, perceptions that it was normative for Black and White students to socialize on campus (or positive association scores) were unrelated to psychological distress or self-acceptance. Findings highlight the relevance of examining multiple facets of campus racial climate in relation to psychological adjustment, with possible emphasis on the import of racial tension on African American women’s psychological adjustment. Results suggest that negative dimensions of campus racial climate may have lingering effects on psychological well-being, over and above more positive aspects of climate. Thus, programs targeted toward improving student relations on campus should consider addressing cross-racial tensions.

Keywords: higher education, psychological adjustment, university climate, university students

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Authors: Jara Kaye S. Villanueva, M. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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For the past few years, Philippines has depended most of its energy source on oil, coal, and fossil fuel. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), the dominance of coal in the energy mix will continue until the year 2020. The expanding energy needs in the country have led to increasing efforts to promote and develop renewable energy. This research is a part of the government initiative in preparation for renewable energy development and expansion in the country. The Philippine Renewable Energy Resource Mapping from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) Surveys is a three-year government project which aims to assess and quantify the renewable energy potential of the country and to put them into usable maps. This study focuses on the site suitability analysis of the four renewable energy sources – biomass (coconut, corn, rice, and sugarcane), hydro, solar, and wind energy. The site assessment is a key component in determining and assessing the most suitable locations for the construction of renewable energy power plants. This method maximizes the use of both the technical methods in resource assessment, as well as taking into account the environmental, social, and accessibility aspect in identifying potential sites by utilizing and integrating two different methods: the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. For the MCDA, Analytical Hierarchy Processing (AHP) is employed to determine the parameters needed for the suitability analysis. To structure these site suitability parameters, various experts from different fields were consulted – scientists, policy makers, environmentalists, and industrialists. The need to have a well-represented group of people to consult with is relevant to avoid bias in the output parameter of hierarchy levels and weight matrices. AHP pairwise matrix computation is utilized to derive weights per level out of the expert’s gathered feedback. Whereas from the threshold values derived from related literature, international studies, and government laws, the output values were then consulted with energy specialists from the DOE. Geospatial analysis using GIS tools translate this decision support outputs into visual maps. Particularly, this study uses Euclidean distance to compute for the distance values of each parameter, Fuzzy Membership algorithm which normalizes the output from the Euclidean Distance, and the Weighted Overlay tool for the aggregation of the layers. Using the Natural Breaks algorithm, the suitability ratings of each of the map are classified into 5 discrete categories of suitability index: (1) not suitable (2) least suitable, (3) suitable, (4) moderately suitable, and (5) highly suitable. In this method, the classes are grouped based on the best groups similar values wherein each subdivision are set from the rest based on the big difference in boundary values. Results show that in the entire Philippine area of responsibility, biomass has the highest suitability rating with rice as the most suitable at 75.76% suitability percentage, whereas wind has the least suitability percentage with score 10.28%. Solar and Hydro fall in the middle of the two, with suitability values 28.77% and 21.27%.

Keywords: site suitability, biomass energy, hydro energy, solar energy, wind energy, GIS

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Authors: Stéphanie Looser, Walter Wehrmeyer

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Given the limited research on Small and Mediumsized Enterprises’ (SMEs) contribution to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and even scarcer research on Swiss SMEs, this paper helps to fill these gaps by enabling the identification of supranational SME parameters and to make a contribution to the evolving field of these topics. Thus, the paper investigates the current state of SME practices in Switzerland and across 15 other countries. Combining the degree to which SMEs demonstrate an explicit (or business case) approach or see CSR as an implicit moral activity with the assessment of their attributes for “variety of capitalism” defines the framework of this comparative analysis. According to previous studies, liberal market economies, e.g. in the United States (US) or United Kingdom (UK), are aligned with extrinsic CSR, while coordinated market systems (in Central European or Asian countries) evolve implicit CSR agendas. To outline Swiss small business CSR patterns in particular, 40 SME owner-managers were interviewed. The transcribed interviews were coded utilising MAXQDA for qualitative content analysis. A secondary data analysis of results from different countries (i.e., Australia, Austria, Chile, Cameroon, Catalonia (notably a part of Spain that seeks autonomy), China, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong (a special administrative region of China), Italy, Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Taiwan, UK, US) lays groundwork for this comparative study on small business CSR. Applying the same coding categories (in MAXQDA) for the interview analysis as well as for the secondary data research while following grounded theory rules to refine and keep track of ideas generated testable hypotheses and comparative power on implicit (and the lower likelihood of explicit) CSR in SMEs retrospectively. The paper identifies Swiss small business CSR as deep, profound, “soul”, and an implicit part of the day-to-day business. Similar to most Central European, Mediterranean, Nordic, and Asian countries, explicit CSR is still very rare in Swiss SMEs. Astonishingly, also UK and US SMEs follow this pattern in spite of their strong and distinct liberal market economies. Though other findings show that nationality matters this research concludes that SME culture and its informal CSR agenda are strongly formative and superseding even forces of market economies, nationally cultural patterns, and language. In a world of “big business”, explicit “business case” CSR, and the mantra that “CSR must pay”, this study points to a distinctly implicit small business CSR model built on trust, physical closeness, and virtues that is largely detached from the bottom line. This pattern holds for different cultural contexts and it is concluded that SME culture is stronger than nationality leading to a supra-national, monolithic SME CSR approach. Hence, classifications of countries by their market system or capitalism, as found in the comparative capitalism literature, do not match the CSR practices in SMEs as they do not mirror the peculiarities of their business. This raises questions on the universality and generalisability of management concepts.

Keywords: CSR, comparative study, cultures of capitalism, small, medium-sized enterprises

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Authors: Lia Mania, Ketevan Nanobashvili

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Background: The coronavirus disease COVID-19 has become the cause of a global health crisis during the current pandemic. This study aims to fill the paucity of epidemiological studies on the impact of COVID-19 on the oral health of pediatric populations. Methods: It was conducted an observational, cross-sectional study in Georgia, in Tbilisi (capital of Georgia), among 7 to 12-year-old PCR or rapid test-confirmed post-Covid populations in all districts of Tbilisi (10 districts in total). 332 beneficiaries who were infected with Covid within one year were included in the study. The population was selected in schools of Tbilisi according to the principle of cluster selection. A simple random selection took place in the selected clusters. According to this principle, an equal number of beneficiaries were selected in all districts of Tbilisi. By July 1, 2022, according to National Center for Disease Control and Public Health data (NCDC.Ge), the number of test-confirmed cases in the population aged 0-18 in Tbilisi was 115137 children (17.7% of all confirmed cases). The number of patients to be examined was determined by the sample size. Oral screening, microbiological examination of saliva, and administration of oral health questionnaires to guardians were performed. Statistical processing of data was done with SPSS-23. Risk factors were estimated by odds ratio and logistic regression with 95% confidence interval. Results: Statistically reliable differences between the averages of oral health indicators in asymptomatic and symptomatic covid-infected groups are: for caries intensity (DMF+def) t=4.468 and p=0.000, for modified gingival index (MGI) t=3.048, p=0.002, for simplified oral hygiene index (S-OHI) t=4.853; p=0.000. Symptomatic covid-infection has a reliable effect on the oral microbiome (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis); (n=332; 77.3% vs n=332; 58.0%; OR=2.46, 95%CI: 1.318-4.617). According to the logistic regression, it was found that the severity of the covid infection has a significant effect on the frequency of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria in the oral cavity B=0.903 AOR=2.467 (CL 1.318-4.617). Symptomatic covid-infection affects oral health indicators, regardless of the presence of other risk factors, such as parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate meal, fruit consumption. (p<0.05). Conclusion: Risk factors (parental employment status, tooth brushing behaviors, carbohydrate consumption) were associated with poorer oral health status in a post-Covid population of 7- to 12-year-old children. However, such a risk factor as symptomatic ongoing covid-infection affected the oral microbiome in terms of the abundant growth of pathogenic and conditionally pathogenic bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus, Candida albicans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus epidermalis) and further worsened oral health indicators. Thus, a close association was established between symptomatic covid-infection and microbiome changes in the post-covid period; also - between the variables of oral health indicators and the symptomatic course of covid-infection.

Keywords: oral microbiome, COVID-19, population based research, oral health indicators

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Authors: Pampita Chakraborty, Sukumar Mukherjee

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This study was done to determine the bacteriological profile and antibiotic resistance of the isolates and to find out the potential risk factors for infection with multidrug-resistant organisms. Diabetic foot ulcer is a major medical, social, economic problem and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in the developing countries like India. 25 percent of all diabetic patients develop a foot ulcer at some point in their lives which is highly susceptible to infections and that spreads rapidly, leading to overwhelming tissue destruction and subsequent amputation. Infection with multidrug resistant organisms (MDRO) may increase the cost of management and may cause additional morbidity and mortality. Proper management of these infections requires appropriate antibiotic selection based on culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Early diagnosis of microbial infections is aimed to institute the appropriate antibacterial therapy initiative to avoid further complications. A total of 200 Type 2 Diabetic Mellitus patients with infection were admitted at GD Hospital and Diabetes Institute, Kolkata. 60 of them who developed ulcer during the year 2013 were included in this study. A detailed clinical history and physical examination were carried out for every subject. Specimens for microbiological studies were obtained from ulcer region. Gram-negative bacilli were tested for extended spectrum Beta-lactamase (ESBL) production by double disc diffusion method. Staphylococcal isolates were tested for susceptibility to oxacillin by screen agar method and disc diffusion. Potential risk factors for MDRO-positive samples were explored. Gram-negative aerobes were most frequently isolated, followed by gram-positive aerobes. Males were predominant in the study and majority of the patients were in the age group of 41-60 years. The presence of neuropathy was observed in 80% cases followed by peripheral vascular disease (73%). Proteus spp. (22) was the most common pathogen isolated, followed by E.coli (17). Staphylococcus aureus was predominant amongst the gram-positive isolates. S.aureus showed a high rate of resistance to antibiotic tested (63.6%). Other gram-positive isolates were found to be highly resistant to erythromycin, tetracycline and ciprofloxacin, 40% each. All isolates were found to be sensitive to Vancomycin and Linezolid. ESBL production was noted in Proteus spp and E.coli. Approximately 70 % of the patients were positive for MDRO. MDRO-infected patients had poor glycemic control (HbA1c 11± 2). Infection with MDROs is common in diabetic foot ulcers and is associated with risk factors like inadequate glycemic control, the presence of neuropathy, osteomyelitis, ulcer size and increased the requirement for surgical treatment. There is a need for continuous surveillance of resistant bacteria to provide the basis for empirical therapy and reduce the risk of complications.

Keywords: diabetic foot ulcer, bacterial infection, multidrug-resistant organism, extended spectrum beta-lactamase

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Authors: Warren Jared, Bekker Jeremy, Salazar Guy, Jackman Katelyn, Linford Lauren

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Introduction: Positive Psychology research has burgeoned in the past 20 years; however, relatively few evidence-based resources to cultivate positive psychology skills are widely available to the general public. The positive psychology resources at www.mybestself101.org were developed to assist individuals in cultivating well-being using a variety of techniques, including gratitude, purpose, mindfulness, self-compassion, savoring, personal growth, and supportive relationships. These resources are empirically based and are built to be accessible to a broad audience. Key Objectives: This presentation highlights results from two recent randomized intervention studies of specific MBS101 learning modules. A key objective of this research is to empirically assess the efficacy and usability of these online resources. Another objective of this research is to encourage the broad dissemination of online positive psychology resources; thus, recommendations for further research and dissemination will be discussed. Methods: In both interventions, we recruited adult participants using social media advertisements. The participants completed several well-being and positive psychology construct-specific measures (savoring and self-compassion measures) at baseline and post-intervention. Participants in the experimental condition were also given a feedback questionnaire to gather qualitative data on how participants viewed the modules. Participants in the self-compassion study were randomly split between an experimental group, who received the treatment, and a control group, who were placed on a waitlist. There was no control group for the savoring study. Participants were instructed to read content on the module and practice savoring or self-compassion strategies listed in the module for a minimum of twenty minutes a day for 21 days. The intervention was semi-structured, as participants were free to choose which module activities they would complete from a menu of research-based strategies. Participants tracked which activities they completed and how long they spent on the modules each day. Results: In the savoring study, participants increased in savoring ability as indicated by multiple measures. In addition, participants increased in well-being from pre- to post-treatment. In the self-compassion study, repeated measures mixed model analyses revealed that compared to waitlist controls, participants who used the MBS101 self-compassion module experienced significant improvements in self-compassion, well-being, and body image with effect sizes ranging from medium to large. Attrition was 10.5% for the self-compassion study and 71% for the savoring study. Overall, participants indicated that the modules were generally helpful, and they particularly appreciated the specific strategy menus. Participants requested more structured course activities, more interactive content, and more practice activities overall. Recommendations: Mybestself101.org is an applied positive psychology research program that shows promise as a model for effectively disseminating evidence-based positive psychology resources that are both engaging and easily accessible. Considerable research is still needed, both to test the efficacy and usability of the modules currently available and to improve them based on participant feedback. Feedback received from participants in the randomized controlled trial led to the development of an expanded, 30-day online course called The Gift of Self-Compassion and an online mindfulness course currently in development called Mindfulness For Humans.

Keywords: positive psychology, intervention, online resources, self-compassion, dissemination, online curriculum

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Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Xian-Peng Chen

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China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer, and its development of renewable energy is of great significance to global energy governance and the fight against climate change. The rapid growth of solar power in China could help achieve its ambitious carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets early. However, the non-technical costs of solar power in China are much higher than at international levels, meaning that inefficiencies are rooted in poor management and improper policy design and that efficiency distortions have become a serious challenge to the sustainable development of the renewable energy industry. Unlike fossil energy generation technologies, the output of solar power is closely related to the volatile solar resource, and the spatial unevenness of solar resource distribution leads to potential efficiency spatial distribution differences. It is necessary to develop an efficiency evaluation method that considers the volatility of solar resources and explores the mechanism of the influence of natural geography and social environment on the spatially varying characteristics of efficiency distribution to uncover the root causes of managing inefficiencies. The study sets solar resources as stochastic inputs, introduces a chance-constrained data envelopment analysis model combined with the directional distance function, and measures the solar resource utilization efficiency of 222 solar power plants in representative photovoltaic bases in northwestern China. By the meta-frontier analysis, we measured the characteristics of different power plant clusters and compared the differences among groups, discussed the mechanism of environmental factors influencing inefficiencies, and performed statistical tests through the system generalized method of moments. Rational localization of power plants is a systematic project that requires careful consideration of the full utilization of solar resources, low transmission costs, and power consumption guarantee. Suitable temperature, precipitation, and wind speed can improve the working performance of photovoltaic modules, reasonable terrain inclination can reduce land cost, and the proximity to cities strongly guarantees the consumption of electricity. The density of electricity demand and high-tech industries is more important than resource abundance because they trigger the clustering of power plants to result in a good demonstration and competitive effect. To ensure renewable energy consumption, increased support for rural grids and encouraging direct trading between generators and neighboring users will provide solutions. The study will provide proposals for improving the full life-cycle operational activities of solar power plants in China to reduce high non-technical costs and improve competitiveness against fossil energy sources.

Keywords: solar power plants, environmental factors, data envelopment analysis, efficiency evaluation

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Authors: Charlotte Jeavons, Charitini Stavropoulous, Nicolas Drey

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Background: Over one-third of five-year-olds and almost half of all eight-year-olds in the UK have obvious caries experience that can be detected by visual screening techniques. School-based caries preventions programs to apply fluoride varnish to young children’s teeth operate in many areas in the UK. Their aim is to reduce dental caries in children. The Department of Health guidance (2009) on consent states information must be provided to parents to enable informed autonomous decision-making prior to any treatment involving their young children. Fluoride varnish schemes delivered in primary schools use letters for this purpose. Parents are expected to return these indicating their consent or refusal. A large proportion of parents do not respond. In the absence of positive consent, these children are excluded from the program. Non-response is more common in deprived areas creating inequality. The reason for this is unknown. The consent process used is underpinned by the ethical theory of deontology that is prevalent in clinical dentistry and widely accepted in bio-ethics. Objective: To investigate parents’ views, understanding and experience of the fluoride varnish program taking place in their child’s school, including their views about the practical consent arrangements. Method: Schools participating in the fluoride varnish scheme operating in Enfield, North London, were asked to take part. Parents with children in nursery, reception, or year one were invited to participate via semi-structured interviews and focus groups. Thematic analysis was conducted. Findings: 40 parents were recruited from eight schools. The global theme of ‘trust’ was identified as the strongest influence on parental responses. Six themes were identified; protecting children from harm is viewed by parents as their role, parents have the capability to decide but lack confidence, sharing responsibility for their child’s oral health with the State is welcomed by a parent, existing relationships within parents’ social networks strongly influences consent decisions, official dental information is not communicated effectively, sending a letter to parents’ and excluding them from meeting dental practitioners is ineffective. The information delivered via a letter was not strongly identified by parents as influencing their response. Conclusions: Personal contact with the person(s) providing information and requesting consent has a greater impact on parental consent responses than written information provided alone. This demonstrates that traditional bio-ethical ideas about rational decision-making where emotions are transcended and interference is not justified unless preventing harm to an unaware person are outdated. Parental decision-making is relational and the consent process should be adapted to reflect this. The current system that has a deontology view of decision making at its core impoverishes parental autonomy and may, ultimately, increase dental inequalities as a result.

Keywords: consent, decision, ethics, fluoride, parents

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Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu, Yuanyuan Liu, Yue Yang

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In the era of the knowledge economy, the relationship between scientific knowledge and patents has garnered significant attention. Understanding the intricate interplay between the foundations of science and technological innovation has emerged as a pivotal challenge for both researchers and policymakers. This study establishes a coupled network of artificial intelligence patents based on co-cited scientific papers. Leveraging centrality metrics from network analysis offers a fresh perspective on understanding the influence of information flow and knowledge sharing within the network on patent impact. The study initially obtained patent numbers for 446,890 granted US AI patents from the United States Patent and Trademark Office’s artificial intelligence patent database for the years 2002-2020. Subsequently, specific information regarding these patents was acquired using the Lens patent retrieval platform. Additionally, a search and deduplication process was performed on scientific non-patent references (SNPRs) using the Web of Science database, resulting in the selection of 184,603 patents that cited 37,467 unique SNPRs. Finally, this study constructs a coupled network comprising 59,379 artificial intelligence patents by utilizing scientific papers co-cited in patent backward citations. In this network, nodes represent patents, and if patents reference the same scientific papers, connections are established between them, serving as edges within the network. Nodes and edges collectively constitute the patent coupling network. Structural characteristics such as node degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are employed to assess the scientific connections between patents, while citation count is utilized as a quantitative metric for patent influence. Finally, a negative binomial model is employed to test the nonlinear relationship between these network structural features and patent influence. The research findings indicate that network structural features such as node degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality exhibit inverted U-shaped relationships with patent influence. Specifically, as these centrality metrics increase, patent influence initially shows an upward trend, but once these features reach a certain threshold, patent influence starts to decline. This discovery suggests that moderate network centrality is beneficial for enhancing patent influence, while excessively high centrality may have a detrimental effect on patent influence. This finding offers crucial insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of encouraging moderate knowledge flow and sharing to promote innovation when formulating technology policies. It suggests that in certain situations, data sharing and integration can contribute to innovation. Consequently, policymakers can take measures to promote data-sharing policies, such as open data initiatives, to facilitate the flow of knowledge and the generation of innovation. Additionally, governments and relevant agencies can achieve broader knowledge dissemination by supporting collaborative research projects, adjusting intellectual property policies to enhance flexibility, or nurturing technology entrepreneurship ecosystems.

Keywords: centrality, patent coupling network, patent influence, social network analysis

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Authors: Lourenco Camnahas, Eileen Willis, Greg Fisher, Jessie Gunson, Pascale Dettwiller, Charlene Thornton

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Stock-out of pharmaceuticals is a common issue at all level of health services in Timor-Leste, a small post-conflict country. This lead to the research questions: what are the current methods used to quantify pharmaceutical supplies; what factors contribute to the on-going pharmaceutical stock-out? The study examined factors that influence the pharmaceutical supply chain system. Methodology: Privett and Goncalvez dependency model has been adopted for the design of the qualitative interviews. The model examines pharmaceutical supply chain management at three management levels: management of individual pharmaceutical items, health facilities, and health systems. The interviews were conducted in order to collect information on inventory management, logistics management information system (LMIS) and the provision of pharmaceuticals. Andersen' behavioural model for healthcare utilization also informed the interview schedule, specifically factors linked to environment (healthcare system and external environment) and the population (enabling factors). Forty health professionals (bureaucrats, clinicians) and six senior officers from a United Nations Agency, a global multilateral agency and a local non-governmental organization were interviewed on their perceptions of factors (healthcare system/supply chain and wider environment) impacting on stock out. Additionally, policy documents for the entire healthcare system, along with population data were collected. Findings: An analysis using Pozzebon’s critical interpretation identified a range of difficulties within the system from poor coordination to failure to adhere to policy guidelines along with major difficulties with inventory management, quantification, forecasting, and budgetary constraints. Weak logistics management information system, lack of capacity in inventory management, monitoring and supervision are additional organizational factors that also contributed to the issue. There were various methods of quantification of pharmaceuticals applied in the government sector, and non-governmental organizations. Lack of reliable data is one of the major problems in the pharmaceutical provision. Global Fund has the best quantification methods fed by consumption data and malaria cases. There are other issues that worsen stock-out: political intervention, work ethic and basic infrastructure such as unreliable internet connectivity. Major issues impacting on pharmaceutical quantification have been identified. However, current data collection identified limitations within the Andersen model; specifically, a failure to take account of predictors in the healthcare system and the environment (culture/politics/social. The next step is to (a) compare models used by three non-governmental agencies with the government model; (b) to run the Andersen explanatory model for pharmaceutical expenditure for 2 to 5 drug items used by these three development partners in order to see how it correlates with the present model in terms of quantification and forecasting the needs; (c) to repeat objectives (a) and (b) using the government model; (d) to draw a conclusion about the strength.

Keywords: inventory management, pharmaceutical forecasting and quantification, pharmaceutical stock-out, pharmaceutical supply chain management

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Authors: Gabriela Borilova, Monika Petrakova, Petr Kralik

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Nowadays, European producers are increasingly interested in the production of halal meat products. Halal meat has been increasingly appearing in the EU's market network and meat products from European producers are being exported to Islamic countries. Halal criteria are mainly related to the origin of muscle used in production, and also to the way products are obtained and processed. Although the EU has legislatively addressed the question of food authenticity, the circumstances of previous years when products with undeclared horse or poultry meat content appeared on EU markets raised the question of the effectiveness of control mechanisms. Replacement of expensive or not-available types of meat for low-priced meat has been on a global scale for a long time. Likewise, halal products may be contaminated (falsified) by pork or food components obtained from pigs. These components include collagen, offal, pork fat, mechanically separated pork, emulsifier, blood, dried blood, dried blood plasma, gelatin, and others. These substances can influence sensory properties of the meat products - color, aroma, flavor, consistency and texture or they are added for preservation and stabilization. Food manufacturers sometimes access these substances mainly due to their dense availability and low prices. However, the use of these substances is not always declared on the product packaging. Verification of the presence of declared ingredients, including the detection of undeclared ingredients, are among the basic control procedures for determining the authenticity of food. Molecular biology methods, based on DNA analysis, offer rapid and sensitive testing. The PCR method and its modification can be successfully used to identify animal species in single- and multi-ingredient raw and processed foods and qPCR is the first choice for food analysis. Like all PCR-based methods, it is simple to implement and its greatest advantage is the absence of post-PCR visualization by electrophoresis. qPCR allows detection of trace amounts of nucleic acids, and by comparing an unknown sample with a calibration curve, it can also provide information on the absolute quantity of individual components in the sample. Our study addresses a problem that is related to the fact that the molecular biological approach of most of the work associated with the identification and quantification of animal species is based on the construction of specific primers amplifying the selected section of the mitochondrial genome. In addition, the sections amplified in conventional PCR are relatively long (hundreds of bp) and unsuitable for use in qPCR, because in DNA fragmentation, amplification of long target sequences is quite limited. Our study focuses on finding a suitable genomic DNA target and optimizing qPCR to reduce variability and distortion of results, which is necessary for the correct interpretation of quantification results. In halal products, the impact of falsification of meat products by the addition of components derived from pigs is all the greater that it is not just about the economic aspect but above all about the religious and social aspect. This work was supported by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic (QJ1530107).

Keywords: food fraud, halal food, pork, qPCR

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Authors: Nils Haglund, Svenolof Dahlgren, Maria Rastam, Peik Gustafsson, Karin Kalien

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In Sweden, like in most developed countries, there is a substantial increase of children diagnosed with autism and other conditions within the autism spectrum (ASD). The rapid increase of ASD rates stresses the importance of developing care programs to provide support and comprehensive interventions for affected families. The current observational study was conducted in order to evaluate an ongoing Comprehensive Intensive Early Intervention (CIEI) program for children with autism in southern Sweden. The change in autism symptoms among children participating in CIEI (intervention group, n=67) was compared with children who received traditional habilitation services only (comparison group, n=27). Children of parents who accepted the offered CIEI-program, constituted the intervention group, whereas children, whose parents (for some reason) were not interested in the offered CIEI-program, constituted the comparison group. The CIEI-program was individualized to each child by experienced applied behavior analysis (ABA) specialists with different backgrounds as psychologists, speech pathologists or special education teachers, in cooperation with parents and preschool staff. Due to the individualization, the intervention could vary in intensity and techniques. The intensity was calculated to 15-25 hours each week at home and the preschool altogether. Each child was assigned one 'trainer', who was often employed as a preschool teacher but could have another educational background. An agreement between supervisor- parents and preschool staff was reached to confirm the intensity and content of the CIEI- program over an approximately two-year intervention period. Symptom changes were measured as evaluation-ADOS-2-scores, total- and severity-scores, minus the corresponding baseline-scores, divided by the time between baseline and evaluation. The difference between the study-groups regarding change of ADOS-2-scores was estimated using ANCOVA. In the current study, children in the CIEI-group improved their ADOS-2-total scores between baseline and evaluation (-0.8 scores per year; 95%CI: -1.2 to -0.4), whereas no such improvement was detected in the comparison group (+0.1 scores per year; 95%CI: -0.7 to +0.9). The change difference (change in the CIEI-group vs. change in the comparison group) was statistically significant, both crude and after adjusting for possible confounders (-1.1; 95%CI -1.9 to -0.4). Children in the CIEI-group also significantly improved their ADOS-calibrated severity scores, but not significantly differently so from the comparison group. The results from the current study indicate that the CIEI program significantly improves social and communicative skills among children with autism and that children with developmental delay could benefit to a similar degree as other children. The results support earlier studies reporting on the improvement of autism symptoms after early intensive interventions. The results from observational studies are difficult to interpret, but it is nevertheless of uttermost importance to evaluate costly autism intervention programs. Such results may be of immediate importance to healthcare organizations when allocating the already strained resources to different patient groups. Albeit the obvious limitation of the current naturalistic study, the results support previous positive studies and indicate that children with autism benefit from participating in early comprehensive, intensive programs and that investments in these programs may be highly justifiable.

Keywords: autism symptoms, ADOS-scores, evaluation, intervention program

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Authors: Sun-Hee Lee, Amanda Kraley

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The “MeToo” movement is a social movement against sexual abuse and harassment. Though the hashtag went viral in 2017 following different cultural flashpoints in different countries, the initial response was quiet in South Korea. This radically changed in January 2018, when a high-ranking senior prosecutor, Seo Ji-hyun, gave a televised interview discussing being sexually assaulted by a colleague. Acknowledging public anger, particularly among women, on the long-existing problems of sexual harassment and abuse, the South Korean media have focused on several high-profile cases. Analyzing the media representation of these cases is a window into the evolving South Korean discourse around “MeToo.” This study presents a linguistic analysis of “MeToo” discourse in South Korea by utilizing a corpus-based approach. The term corpus (pl. corpora) is used to refer to electronic language data, that is, any collection of recorded instances of spoken or written language. A “MeToo” corpus has been collected by extracting newspaper articles containing the keyword “MeToo” from BIGKinds, big data analysis, and service and Nexis Uni, an online academic database search engine, to conduct this language analysis. The corpus analysis explores how Korean media represent accusers and the accused, victims and perpetrators. The extracted data includes 5,885 articles from four broadsheet newspapers (Chosun, JoongAng, Hangyore, and Kyunghyang) and 88 articles from two Korea-based English newspapers (Korea Times and Korea Herald) between January 2017 and November 2020. The information includes basic data analysis with respect to keyword frequency and network analysis and adds refined examinations of select corpus samples through naming strategies, semantic relations, and pragmatic properties. Along with the exponential increase of the number of articles containing the keyword “MeToo” from 104 articles in 2017 to 3,546 articles in 2018, the network and keyword analysis highlights ‘US,’ ‘Harvey Weinstein’, and ‘Hollywood,’ as keywords for 2017, with articles in 2018 highlighting ‘Seo Ji-Hyun, ‘politics,’ ‘President Moon,’ ‘An Ui-Jeong, ‘Lee Yoon-taek’ (the names of perpetrators), and ‘(Korean) society.’ This outcome demonstrates the shift of media focus from international affairs to domestic cases. Another crucial finding is that word ‘defamation’ is widely distributed in the “MeToo” corpus. This relates to the South Korean legal system, in which a person who defames another by publicly alleging information detrimental to their reputation—factual or fabricated—is punishable by law (Article 307 of the Criminal Act of Korea). If the defamation occurs on the internet, it is subject to aggravated punishment under the Act on Promotion of Information and Communications Network Utilization and Information Protection. These laws, in particular, have been used against accusers who have publicly come forward in the wake of “MeToo” in South Korea, adding an extra dimension of risk. This corpus analysis of “MeToo” newspaper articles contributes to the analysis of the media representation of the “MeToo” movement and sheds light on the shifting landscape of gender relations in the public sphere in South Korea.

Keywords: corpus linguistics, MeToo, newspapers, South Korea

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Authors: Loha Hashimy, Isabella Castillo

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In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, the importance of precise navigation and mapping systems cannot be understated. As various sectors undergo transformative changes, the market potential for Advanced Mapping and Management Systems (AMMS) emerges as a critical focus area. The Galileo/GNSS-Based Autonomous Mobile Mapping System (GAMMS) project, specifically targeted toward high-definition mapping (HDM), endeavours to provide insights into this market within the broader context of the geomatics and navigation fields. With the growing integration of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) into our transportation systems, the relevance and demand for sophisticated mapping solutions like HDM have become increasingly pertinent. The research employed a meticulous, lean, stepwise, and interconnected methodology to ensure a comprehensive assessment. Beginning with the identification of pivotal project results, the study progressed into a systematic market screening. This was complemented by an exhaustive desk research phase that delved into existing literature, data, and trends. To ensure the holistic validity of the findings, extensive consultations were conducted. Academia and industry experts provided invaluable insights through interviews, questionnaires, and surveys. This multi-faceted approach facilitated a layered analysis, juxtaposing secondary data with primary inputs, ensuring that the conclusions were both accurate and actionable. Our investigation unearthed a plethora of drivers steering the HD maps landscape. These ranged from technological leaps, nuanced market demands, and influential economic factors to overarching socio-political shifts. The meteoric rise of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and the shift towards app-based transportation solutions, such as Uber, stood out as significant market pull factors. A nuanced PESTEL analysis further enriched our understanding, shedding light on political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal facets influencing the HD maps market trajectory. Simultaneously, potential roadblocks were identified. Notable among these were barriers related to high initial costs, concerns around data quality, and the challenges posed by a fragmented and evolving regulatory landscape. The GAMMS project serves as a beacon, illuminating the vast opportunities that lie ahead for the HD mapping sector. It underscores the indispensable role of HDM in enhancing navigation, ensuring safety, and providing pinpoint, accurate location services. As our world becomes more interconnected and reliant on technology, HD maps emerge as a linchpin, bridging gaps and enabling seamless experiences. The research findings accentuate the imperative for stakeholders across industries to recognize and harness the potential of HD mapping, especially as we stand on the cusp of a transportation revolution heralded by Autonomous Vehicles and advanced geomatic solutions.

Keywords: high-definition mapping (HDM), autonomous vehicles, PESTEL analysis, market drivers

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Authors: Vaiddehi Bansal, Ridhi Sahai, Kareem Kysia

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Overseas labor migration is currently one of the most important contributors to the economy of Bangladesh and is a highly profitable form of labor for Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) countries. In 2019, 700,159 migrant workers from Bangladeshtraveled abroad for employment. GCC countries are a major destination for Bangladeshi migrant workers, with Saudi Arabia being the most common destination for Bangladeshi migrant workers since 2016. Despite the high rate of migration between these countries every year, the OLR industry remains complex and often leaves migrants susceptible to human trafficking, forced labor, and modern slavery. While the prevalence of forced labor among Bangladeshi migrants in GCC countries is still unknown, the IOM estimates international migrant workers comprise one fourth of the victims of forced labor. Moreover, the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic has exposed migrant workers to additional adverse situations, making them even more vulnerable to forced labor and health risks. This paper presents findings from a rapid assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on OLR in Bangladesh, with an emphasis on the increased risk of forced labor among vulnerable migrant worker populations, particularly women.Rapid reviews are a useful approach to swiftly provide actionable evidence for informed decision-making during emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The research team conducted semi-structured key information interviews (KIIs) with a range of stakeholders, including government officials, local NGOs, international organizations, migration researchers, and formal and informal recruiting agencies, to obtain insights on the multi-facted impacts of COVID-19 on the OLR sector. The research team also conducted a comprehensive review of available resources, including media articles, blogs, policy briefs, reports, white papers, and other online content, to triangulate findings from the KIIs. After screening for inclusion criteria, a total of 110 grey literature documents were included in the review. A total of 31 KIIs were conducted, data from which was transcribed and translated from Bangla to English, andanalyzed using a detailed codebook. Findings indicate that there was limited reintegration support for returnee migrants. Facing increasing amounts of debt, financial insecurity, and social discrimination, returnee migrants, were extremely vulnerable to forced labor and exploitation. Growing financial debt and limited job opportunities in their home country will likely push migrants to resort to unsafe migration channels. Evidence suggests that women, who are primarily domestic works in GCC countries, were exposed to increased risk of forced labor and workplace violence. Due to stay-at-home measures, women migrant workers were tasked with additional housekeeping working and subjected to longer work hours, wage withholding, and physical abuse. In Bangladesh, returnee women migrant workers also faced an increased risk of domestic violence.

Keywords: forced labor, migration, gender, human trafficking

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Authors: Alessandra Swiny, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

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There exists an on-going geographical scar creating a division through the Island of Cyprus and its capital, Nicosia. The currently amputated city center is accessed legally by the United Nations convoys, infiltrated only by Turkish and Greek Cypriot army scouts and illegal traders and scavengers. On Christmas day 1963 in Nicosia, Captain M. Hobden of the British Army took a green chinagraph pencil and on a large scale Joint Army-RAF map ‘marked’ the division. From then on this ‘buffer zone’ was called the ‘green line.' This once dividing form, separating the main communities of Greek and Turkish Cypriots from one another, has now been fully reclaimed by an autonomous intruder. It's currently most captivating inhabitant is nature. She keeps taking over, for the past fifty years indigenous and introduced fauna and flora thrive; trees emerge from rooftops and plants, bushes and flowers grow randomly through the once bustling market streets, allowing this ‘no man’s land’ to teem with wildlife. And where are its limits? The idea of fluidity is ever present; it encroaches into the urban and built environment that surrounds it, and notions of ownership and permanence are questioned. Its qualities have contributed significantly in the search for new ‘identities,' expressed in the emergence of new living conditions, be they real or surreal. Without being physically reachable, it can be glimpsed at through punctured peepholes, military bunker windows that act as enticing portals into an emotional and conceptual level of inhabitation. The zone is mystical and simultaneously suspended in time, it triggers people’s imagination, not just that of the two prevailing communities but also of immigrants, refugees, and visitors; it mesmerizes all who come within its proximity. The paper opens a discussion on the issues and the binary questions raised. What is natural and artificial; what is private and public; what is ephemeral and permanent? The ‘green line’ exists in a central fringe condition and can serve in mixing generations and groups of people; mingling functions of living with work and social interaction; merging nature and the human being in a new-found synergy of human hope and survival, allowing thus for new notions of place to be introduced. Questions seek to be answered, such as, “Is the impossibility of dwelling made possible, by interweaving these ‘in-between conditions’ into eloquently traced spaces?” The methodologies pursued are developed through academic research, professional practice projects, and students’ research/design work. Realized projects, case studies and other examples cited both nationally and internationally hold global and local applications. Both paths of the research deal with the explorative understanding of the impossibility of dwelling, testing the limits of its autonomy. The expected outcome of the experience evokes in the user a sense of a new urban landscape, created from human topographies that echo the voice of an emerging identity.

Keywords: urban wildlife, human topographies, buffer zone, no man’s land

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Authors: Mayantoinette F. Watson

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During such an unprecedented time of the largest public health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, nursing students are of the utmost concern regarding their psychological and physical well-being. Questions are emerging and circulating about what will happen to the nursing students and the long-term effects of the pandemic, especially now that hospitals are being overwhelmed with a significant need for nursing staff. Expectations, demands, change, and the fear of the unknown during this unprecedented time can only contribute to the many stressors that accompany nursing students through laborious clinical and didactic courses in nursing programs. The risk of psychological distress is at a maximum, and its effects can negatively impact not only nursing students but also nursing education and academia. The high exposures to interpersonal, economic, and academic demands contribute to the major health concerns, which include a potential risk for psychological distress. Achievement of educational success among nursing students is directly affected by the high exposure to anxiety and depression from experiences within the program. Working relationships and achieving academic success is imperative to positive student outcomes within the nursing program. The purpose of this study is to identify and establish influences and associations within multilevel factors, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological distress in nursing students. Neuman’s Systems Model Theory was used to determine nursing students’ responses to internal and external stressors. The research in this study utilized a mixed-methods, convergent study design. The study population included undergraduate nursing students from Southeastern U.S. The research surveyed a convenience sample of undergraduate nursing students. The quantitative survey was completed by 202 participants, and 11 participants participated in the qualitative follow-up interview surveys. Participants completed the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6), the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS4), and the Dundee Readiness Educational Environment Scale (DREEM12) to measure psychological distress, perceived stress, and perceived educational environment. Participants also answered open-ended questions regarding their experience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Statistical tests, including bivariate analyses, multiple linear regression analyses, and binary logistics regression analyses were performed in effort to identify and highlight the effects of independent variables on the dependent variable, psychological distress. Coding and qualitative content analysis were performed to identify overarching themes within participants’ interviews. Quantitative data were sufficient in identifying correlations between psychological distress and multilevel factors of coping, marital status, COVID-19 stress, perceived stress, educational environment, and social support in nursing students. Qualitative data were sufficient in identifying common themes of students’ perceptions during COVID-19 and included online learning, workload, finances, experience, breaks, time, unknown, support, encouragement, unchanged, communication, and transmission. The findings are significant, specifically regarding contributing factors to nursing students’ psychological distress, which will help to improve learning in the academic environment.

Keywords: nursing education, nursing students, pandemic, psychological distress

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Authors: Prashant Gupta

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Throughout India, temples have served as cultural centers, commerce hubs, art galleries, educational institutions, and social centers in addition to being places of worship since centuries. Across the country, there are over two million temples, which are crucial economic hubs, attracting devotees and tourists worldwide. In India, we have 53 temples per each 100,000 Indians. As per NSSO survey, the temple economy is worth about $40 billion and 2.32 per cent of GDP based on major temple’s survey, which only includes formal sector. It could be much larger as an actual estimation has not been done yet. In India, 43.1% of total economy represents informal sector. Over 10 billion domestic tourists visit to new destinations every year within India. Even 20 per cent of the 90 million foreign tourists visited Madurai and Mahabalipuram temples which became the most visited tourist spot in 2022. Recently the current central government in power have started revitalizing the ancient Indian civilization by reconstructing and beautifying the major temples of India i.e., Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, Mahakaleshwara Temple, Kedarnath, Ayodhya etc. The reason researcher chose Kashi as a case study because it is known as a Spiritual Capital of India, which is also the abode for the spread of Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikkism, which are core Sanatan Dharmic practices. 17,800 Million INR Amount was spend to redevelop Kashi Vishwanath Corridor since 2019. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1. To assess historical contribution of temples in socio economic development and revival of Indic Civilization. 2. To examine the role of temples redevelopment for informal sector businesses. 3. To identify the sub-sectors of informal sector businesses 4. To identify products and services of informal businesses for investigation of marketing strategies and business development. PROPOSED METHODS AND PROCEDURES This study will follow a mixed approach, employing both qualitative and quantitative methods of research. To conduct the study, data will be collected from 500 informal business owners through structured questionnaire and interview instruments. The informal business owners will be selected using a systematic random sampling technique. In addition, documents from government offices of the last 10 years of tax collection will be reviewed to substantiate the study. To analyze the study, descriptive and econometric analysis techniques will be employed. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION OF THE PROPOSED STUDY By studying the contribution of temple re-development on informal business creation and growth, the study will be beneficial to the informal business owners and the government. For the government, scientific and empirical evidence on the contribution of temple re-development for informal business creation and growth to give evidence the study will give based infrastructural development and boosting tax collection. For informal businesses, the study will give them a detailed insight on the nature of their business and the possible future growth potential of their business, and the alternative products and services supplying to their customers in the future. Studying informal businesses will help to identify the key products and services which are majorly profitable and possess potential to multiply and grow through correct product marketing strategies and business development.

Keywords: business development, informal sector businesses, services and products marketing, temple economics

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Authors: Taboka Motlhabane, Pradeep Sahoo

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The global demand for cooling has grown exponentially over the past century to meet economic development and social needs, accounting for approximately 10% of the global electricity consumption. As global temperatures continue to rise, the demand for cooling and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment is set to rise with it. The increased use of HVAC equipment has significantly contributed to the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which aid the climate crisis- one of the biggest challenges faced by the current generation. The need to address emissions caused directly by HVAC equipment and electricity generated to meet the cooling or heating demand is ever more pressing. Currently, developed countries account for the largest cooling and heating demand, however developing countries are anticipated to experience a huge increase in population growth in 10 years, resulting in a shift in energy demand. Developing countries, which are projected to account for nearly 60% of the world's GDP by 2030, are rapidly building infrastructure and economies to meet their growing needs and meet these projections. Cooling, a very energy-intensive process that can account for 20 % to 75% of a building's energy, depending on the building's use. Solar photovoltaic (PV) driven air-conditioning offers a great cost-effective alternative for adoption in both residential and non-residential buildings to offset grid electricity, particularly in countries with high irradiation, such as Botswana. This research paper explores the potential of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic vapor-compression air-conditioning system for the Peter-Smith herbarium at the Okavango Research Institute (ORI) University of Botswana campus in Maun, Botswana. The herbarium plays a critical role in the collection and preservation of botanical data, dating back over 100 years, with pristine collection from the Okavango Delta, a UNESCO world heritage site and serves as a reference and research site. Due to the herbarium’s specific needs, it operates throughout the day and year in an attempt to maintain a constant herbarium temperature of 16°?. The herbarium model studied simulates a variable-air-volume HVAC system with a system rating of 30 kW. Simulation results show that the HVAC system accounts for 68.9% of the building's total electricity at 296 509.60 kWh annually. To offset the grid electricity, a 175.1 kWp nominal power rated PV system requiring 416 modules to match the required power, covering an area of 928 m2 is used to meet the HVAC system annual needs. An economic assessment using PVsyst found that for an installation priced with average solar PV prices in Botswana totalled to be 787 090.00 BWP, with annual operating costs of 30 500 BWP/year. With self-project financing, the project is estimated to have recouped its initial investment within 6.7 years. At an estimated project lifetime of 20 years, the Net Present Value is projected at 1 565 687.00 BWP with a ROI of 198.9%, with 74 070.67 tons of CO2 saved at the end of the project lifetime. This study investigates the performance of the HVAC system to meet the indoor air comfort requirements, the annual PV system performance, and the building model has been simulated using DesignBuilder Software.

Keywords: vapor compression refrigeration, solar cooling, renewable energy, herbarium

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Authors: Partha Saha, Uttam Kumar Banerjee

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Maternal and Child Healthcare (MCH) has always been regarded as one of the important issues globally. Reduction of maternal and child mortality rates and increase of healthcare service coverage were declared as one of the targets in Millennium Development Goals till 2015 and thereafter as an important component of the Sustainable Development Goals. Over the last decade, worldwide MCH indicators have improved but could not match the expected levels. Progress of both maternal and child mortality rates have been monitored by several researchers. Each of the studies has stated that only less than 26% of low-income and middle income countries (LMICs) were on track to achieve targets as prescribed by MDG4. Average worldwide annual rate of reduction of under-five mortality rate and maternal mortality rate were 2.2% and 1.9% as on 2011 respectively whereas rates should be minimum 4.4% and 5.5% annually to achieve targets. In spite of having proven healthcare interventions for both mothers and children, those could not be scaled up to the required volume due to fragmented health systems, especially in the developing and under-developed countries. In this research, a knowledge discovery based interactive Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed on web platform which would assist healthcare policy makers to develop evidence-based policies. To achieve desirable results in MCH, efficient resource planning is very much required. In maximum LMICs, resources are big constraint. Knowledge, generated through this system, would help healthcare managers to develop strategic resource planning for combatting with issues like huge inequity and less coverage in MCH. This system would help healthcare managers to accomplish following four tasks. Those are a) comprehending region wise conditions of variables related with MCH, b) identifying relationships within variables, c) segmenting regions based on variables status, and d) finding out segment wise key influential variables which have major impact on healthcare indicators. Whole system development process has been divided into three phases. Those were i) identifying contemporary issues related with MCH services and policy making; ii) development of the system; and iii) verification and validation of the system. More than 90 variables under three categories, such as a) educational, social, and economic parameters; b) MCH interventions; and c) health system building blocks have been included into this web-based DSS and five separate modules have been developed under the system. First module has been designed for analysing current healthcare scenario. Second module would help healthcare managers to understand correlations among variables. Third module would reveal frequently-occurring incidents along with different MCH interventions. Fourth module would segment regions based on previously mentioned three categories and in fifth module, segment-wise key influential interventions will be identified. India has been considered as case study area in this research. Data of 601 districts of India has been used for inspecting effectiveness of those developed modules. This system has been developed by importing different statistical and data mining techniques on Web platform. Policy makers would be able to generate different scenarios from the system before drawing any inference, aided by its interactive capability.

Keywords: maternal and child heathcare, decision support systems, data mining techniques, low and middle income countries

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Authors: Ayla Hoeta

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The focus of this research is mahi Maramataka, ‘the practices of Maramataka’ as a traditional and evolving knowledge system and its connection to whaanau oranga (wellbeing) and healing. Centering kaupapa Maaori methods and knowledge this research will explore how Maramataka can be used as a tool for oranga and healing for whaanau to engage with different environments aligned with Maramataka flow and optimal time based on the environment. Maramataka is an ancestral lunar environmental knowledge system rooted within korero tuku iho, Maaori creation stories, dating back to the beginning of time. The significance of Maramataka is the ancient environmental knowledge and the connecting energy flow of mauri (life force) between whenua (land), moana (ocean) and rangi (sky). The lunar component of the Maramataka is widely understood and highlights the different phases of the moon. Each moon phase is named with references to puurakau stories and environmental and ecological information. Marama, meaning moon and taka, meaning cycle, is used as a lunar and environmental calendar. There are lunar phases that are optimal for specific activities, such as the Tangaroa phase, a time of abundance and productivity and ocean-based activities like fishing. Other periods in the Maramataka, such as Rakaunui (full moon), connect the highest tides and highest energy of the lunar cycle, ideal for social, physical activity and particularly planting. Other phases like Tamatea are unpredictable whereas Whiro (new moon/s) is reflective, deep and cautious during the darkest nights. Whaanau, particularly in urban settings have become increasingly disconnected from the natural environment, the Maramataka has become a tool that they can connect to which offers an alternative to dominant perspectives of health and is an approach that is uniquely Maaori. In doing so, this research will raise awareness of oranga or lack of oranga, and lived experience of whaanau in Tamaki Makaurau - Aotearoa, on a journey to revival of Maramataka and healing. The research engages Hautu Waka as a methodology using the methods of ancient kaupapa Māori practises based on wayfinding and attunement with the natural environment. Using ancient ways of being, knowing, seeing and doing the Hautu Waka will centre kaupapa Maaori perspectives to process design, reflection and evaluation. The methods of Hautu Waka consists of five interweaving phases, 1) Te Rapunga (the search) in infinite potential, 2) Te Kitenga (the seeing), observations of and attunement to tohu 3) te whainga (the pursuit) and deeply exploring key tohu 4) te whiwhinga (the acquiring), of knowledge and clearer ideas, 5) Te Rawenga (the celebration), reflection and acknowledgement of the journey and achievements. This research is an expansion from my creative practices across whaanau-centred inquiry, to understand the benefits of Maramataka and how it can be embodied and practised in a modern-day context to support oranga and healing. Thus, the goal is to work with kaupapa Maaori methodologies to authenticate as a Maaori practitioner and researcher and allow an authentic indigenous approach to the exploration of Maramataka and through a kaupapa Maaori lens.

Keywords: maramataka (Maaori calendar), tangata (people), taiao (environment), whenua (land), whaanau (family), hautu waka (navigation framework)

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

Procedia PDF Downloads 198