Search results for: climate change trends

Authors: Fengmei Yao, Pengcheng Qin, Jiahua Zhang, Min Liu

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Global warming is expected to reduce the risk of low temperature stress in rice grown in temperate regions, but this impact has not been well verified by empirical studies directly on chilling injury in rice. In this study, a case study in Northeast China was presented to investigate whether the frequencies of chilling injury declined as a result of climate change, in comprehensive consideration of the potential effects from autonomous adaptation of rice production in response to climate change, such as shifts in cultivation timing and rice cultivars. It was found that frequency of total chilling injury (either delayed-growth type or sterile-type in a year) decreased but only to a limit extent in the context of climate change, mainly owing to a pronounced decrease in frequency of the delayed-growth chilling injury, while there was no overwhelming decreasing tendency for frequency of the sterile-type chilling injury, rather, it even increased considerably for some regions. If changes in cultivars had not occurred, risks of chilling injury of both types would have been much lower, specifically for the sterile-type chilling injury for avoiding deterioration in chilling sensitivity of rice cultivars. In addition, earlier planting helped lower the risk of chilling injury but still can not overweight the effects of introduction of new cultivars. It was concluded that risks of chilling injury in rice would not necessarily decrease as a result of climate change, considering the accompanying adaptation process may increase the chilling sensitivity of rice production system in a warmer climate conditions, and thus precautions should still be taken.

Keywords: chilling injury, rice, CERES-rice model, climate warming, North east China

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Omar Alelweet

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Carbon emissions are quantified in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents, generated through a specific activity or accumulated throughout the life stages of a product or service. Given the growing concern about climate change and the role of carbon dioxide emissions in global warming, this initiative aims to create awareness and understanding of the impact of human activities and identify potential areas for improvement regarding the management of the carbon footprint on campus. Given that trees play a vital role in reducing carbon emissions by absorbing CO₂ during the photosynthesis process, this paper evaluated the contribution of each tree to reducing those emissions. Collecting data over an extended period of time is essential to monitoring carbon dioxide levels. This will help capture changes at different times and identify any patterns or trends in the data. By linking the data to specific activities, events, or environmental factors, it is possible to identify sources of emissions and areas where carbon dioxide levels are rising. Analyzing the collected data can provide valuable insights into ways to reduce emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change.

Keywords: sustainability, green building, environmental impact, CO₂

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Authors: Niamh Herlihy, Helen Fischer, Rainer Sauerborn, Anneliese Depoux, Avner Bar-Hen, Antoine Flauhault, Stefanie Schütte

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In the recent decades, there has been an increase in the number of publications both in the scientific and grey literature on the potential health risks associated with climate change. Though interest in climate change and health is growing, there are still many gaps to adequately assess our future health needs in a warmer world. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be a key step in inciting the changes necessary to decelerate global warming and to target new strategies to mitigate the consequences on health systems. A long term and broad overview of existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. We conducted a scoping review of published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health from two large databases, PubMed and Web of Science, between 1990 and 2015. A scoping review allowed for a broad analysis of this complex topic on a meta-level as opposed to a thematically refined literature review. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the two databases. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied in order to capture the most relevant literature on the human health impact of climate change within the chosen timeframe. Two reviewers screened the papers independently and any differences arising were resolved by a third party. Data was extracted, categorized and coded both manually and using R software. Analytics and infographics were developed from results. There were 7269 articles identified between the two databases following the removal of duplicates. After screening of the articles by both reviewers 3751 were included. As expected, preliminary results indicate that the number of publications on the topic has increased over time. Geographically, the majority of publications address the impact of climate change and health in Europe and North America, This is particularly alarming given that countries in the Global South will bear the greatest health burden. Concerning health outcomes, infectious diseases, particularly dengue fever and other mosquito transmitted infections are the most frequently cited. We highlight research gaps in certain areas e.g climate migration and mental health issues. We are developing a database of the identified climate change and health publications and are compiling a report for publication and dissemination of the findings. As health is a major co-beneficiary to climate change mitigation strategies, our results may serve as a useful source of information for research funders and investors when considering future research needs as well as the cost-effectiveness of climate change strategies. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate change and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, review, mapping

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Authors: Thapa M., J.P. Dutta, K.R. Pandey, R.R. Kattel

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Nepal is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change. To mitigate the climate change effects on agricultural production and productivity a range of adaptive strategies needs to be considered. The study was conducted to assess organic paddy production as a coping strategy to the adverse impact of climate change in Phulbari, VDC of Chitwan district. Altogether, 120 respondents (60 adopters of organic farming and 60 from non adopter) were selected using snowball technique of sampling. Pre- tested interview schedule, direct observation, focus group discussion, key informant interview as well as secondary data were used to collect the required information. Factors determining the adoption of organic farming were found to be age, year of schooling, training, frequency of extension contact, perception about climate change, economically active members and poor. A unit increase in these factors except poor would increase the probability of adoption by 4.1%, 7.5%, 7.8%, 43.1%, 41.8% and 7% respectively. However, for poor, it would decrease the probability of adoption of organic farming by 5.1%. Average organic matter content in the adopters' field was higher (2.7%) than the non-adopters' field (2.5%). The regression result showed that type of farmer, price and area under rice cultivation had positive and significant relationship with income; however dependency ratio had negative relationship. As the year of adoption of organic farming increases, the production of rice decline in the first two years then after goes on increasing but the cost of production goes on decreasing with the year of adoption. The respondents adapted to the changing climate through diversification of crops, use of resistance varieties and following good cropping pattern. Gradually growing consumers' awareness about health, preference towards quality food products are the strong points behind organic farming, whereas lacks of bio-fertilizers, lack of effective extension services, no price differentiation between organic and inorganic products were the weak points. There is need for more training and education to change the attitude of farmers and enhance their confidence about the role of organic farming to cope with climate change impact.

Keywords: Organic farming, climate change, sustainable development

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Authors: Mediha B. Sılaydın Aydın, Emine D. Kahraman

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One of the important impacts of climate change is the sea level rise. Turkey is a peninsula, so the coastal areas of the country are threatened by the problem of sea level rise. Therefore, the urbanized coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the aim of enhancing spatial resilience of urbanized areas, this question arises: What should be the priority intervention subject in the urban planning process for a given city. To answer this question, by focusing on the problem of sea level rise, this study aims to determine spatial vulnerability typologies and levels of Turkey coastal cities based on morphological, physical and social characteristics. As a method, spatial vulnerability of coastal cities is determined by two steps as level and type. Firstly, physical structure, morphological structure and social structure were examined in determining spatial vulnerability levels. By determining these levels, most vulnerable areas were revealed as a priority in adaptation studies. Secondly, all parameters are also used to determine spatial typologies. Typologies are determined for coastal cities in order to use as a base for urban planning studies. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for developing countries like Turkey so, this methodology and created typologies could be a guide for urban planners as spatial directors and an example for other developing countries in the context of adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate that the urban settlements located on the coasts of the Marmara Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean respectively, are more vulnerable than the cities located on the Black Sea’s coasts to sea level rise.

Keywords: climate change, coastal cities, vulnerability, urban land use planning

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Authors: Justin A. Udie, Subhes C. Bhatthacharyya, Leticia Ozawa-Meida

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The impact of climate change is severe in the Niger Delta and critical oil and gas infrastructures are vulnerable. This is partly due to lack of specific impact assessment framework to assess impact indices on both existing and new infrastructures. The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for the assessment of climate change impact on critical oil and gas infrastructure in the region. Comparative and documentary methods as well as analysis of frameworks were used to develop a flexible, integrated and conceptual four dimensional framework underpinning; 1. Scoping – the theoretical identification of inherent climate burdens, review of exposure, adaptive capacities and delineation of critical infrastructure; 2. Vulnerability assessment – presents a systematic procedure for the assessment of infrastructure vulnerability. It provides real time re-scoping, practical need for data collection, analysis and review. Physical examination of systems is encouraged to complement the scoped data and ascertain the level of exposure to relevant climate risks in the area; 3. New infrastructure – consider infrastructures that are still at developmental level. It seeks to suggest the inclusion of flexible adaptive capacities in original design of infrastructures in line with climate threats and projections; 4. The Mainstreaming Climate Impact Assessment into government’s environmental decision making approach. Though this framework is designed specifically for the estimation of exposure, adaptive capacities and criticality of vulnerable oil and gas infrastructures in the Niger Delta to climate burdens; it is recommended for researchers and experts as a first-hand generic and practicable tool which can be used for the assessment of other infrastructures perceived as critical and vulnerable. The paper does not provide further tools that synch into the methodological approach but presents pointers upon which a pragmatic methodology can be developed.

Keywords: adaptation, assessment, conceptual, climate, change, framework, vulnerability

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Authors: Orkan Ozcan, Nebiye Musaoglu, Murat Turkes

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Climate change is largely recognized as one of the real, pressing and significant global problems. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. As a result, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘very low’ vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘very low’ account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as ‘low’ account for 36%, those classed as ‘medium’ account for 20%, and those classed as ‘high’ account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in the study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords: forest ecosystem, Mediterranean climate, RCP scenarios, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Prince Dacosta Aboagye, Ayyoob Sharifi

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Cities respond to climate concerns mainly through their climate action plans (CAPs). A comprehensive content analysis of the dynamics in existing urban CAPs is not well represented in the literature. This literature void presents a difficulty in appreciating the strengths and weaknesses of urban CAPs. Here, we perform a qualitative content analysis (QCA) on CAPs from 278 cities worldwide and use text-mining tools to map and visualize the relevant data. Our analysis showed a decline in the number of CAPs developed and published following the global COVID-19 lockdown period. Evidently, megacities are leading the deep decarbonisation agenda. We also observed a transition from developing mainly mitigation-focused CAPs pre-COP21 to both mitigation and adaptation CAPs. A lack of inclusiveness in local climate planning was common among European and North American cities. The evidence is a catalyst for understanding the trends in existing urban CAPs to shape future urban climate planning.

Keywords: urban, climate action plans, strengths, weaknesses

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Authors: Funmilayo Sarah Eguakun, Peter Oluremi Adesoye

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One of the major problems being faced by human society is that the global temperature is believed to be rising due to human activity that releases carbon IV oxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Carbon IV oxide is the most important greenhouse gas influencing global warming and possible climate change. With climate change becoming alarming, reducing CO2 in our atmosphere has become a primary goal of international efforts. Forest landsare major sink and could absorb large quantities of carbon if the trees are judiciously managed. The study aims at estimating the carbon sequestration capacity of Pinus caribaea (pine)and Tectona grandis (Teak) under the prevailing environmental conditions and exploring tree growth variables that influencesthe carbon sequestration capacity in Omo Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria. Improving forest management by manipulating growth characteristics that influences carbon sequestration could be an adaptive strategy of forestry to climate change. Random sampling was used to select Temporary Sample Plots (TSPs) in the study area from where complete enumeration of growth variables was carried out within the plots. The data collected were subjected to descriptive and correlational analyses. The results showed that average carbon stored by Pine and Teak are 994.4±188.3 Kg and 1350.7±180.6 Kg respectively. The difference in carbon stored in the species is significant enough to consider choice of species relevant in climate change adaptation strategy. Tree growth variables influence the capacity of the tree to sequester carbon. Height, diameter, volume, wood density and age are positively correlated to carbon sequestration. These tree growth variables could be manipulated by the forest manager as an adaptive strategy for climate change while plantations of high wood density speciescould be relevant for management strategy to increase carbon storage.

Keywords: adaptation, carbon sequestration, climate change, growth variables, wood density

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Authors: Niranjan Devkota , Ram Kumar Phuya, Durga Lal Shreshta

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This paper estimates cost and benefit of adoption of climate change adaptation options available to the rural rice farmers of Nepal. Adoption of adaptation strategies, intensity of use of adaptation options, identification of labor and non-labor cost and finally per unit cost and benefit analysis of climate change adaptation were made. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to source respondents for the study and used structured questionnaire techniques to collect data from 773 households from seven districts; 3 from Terai and 4 from Hilly region of Nepal. The result revealed that there are 13 major adaptation options rice farmers practice in order to protect themselves from climatic risk. Among the given adaptation options, the first three popular adaptation options practiced by rice farmers are (i) increasing use of chemical fertilizer (60.93%) (ii) use of climate smart verities (49.29%) and (iii) change in nursery date (32.08%). Adaptation cost is obvious, based on that, the first three costly adaptation options are the alternative irrigation practice which incurred average cost of US $69.95 (US$ 1 = 102.84 Nepalese Rupees) followed by a denser plantation of local seeds ($ 20.69) and using climate smart varieties ($ 18.06). 88% farmers practiced more than one adaptation strategies on the same farm with the aim of reducing the effect of extreme climatic conditions. Total cost and revenue revealed that per unit total cost ranges from $28.34 to $32.79 whereas per unit total revenue ranges $33.4 to $49.02. Surprisingly, it is observed that farmers who do not adopt any adaptation options are able to receive highest income from per unit production. As Net Present Value (NPV) is positive and Benefit Cost Ration (BCR) is greater than one for every adaptation options that indicates the available adaptation options are profitable to the rice farmers.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation options, cost benefit analysis, rural rice farmers, Nepal

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Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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Authors: Paulo José Sigaúque, Paulo Rosman

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The Itajurú channel, located in the Eastern side of the Araruama lagoon, Rio de Janeiro state, is the one who makes the connection between Araruama lagoon and the sea. It is important to understand the hydrodynamic circulation of the location and effects of the sedimentological processes, and also estimate of the hydrodynamic and sedimentological processes in the future after the sea level change due to effects of climate change. This work presents results of a study about sediments dynamics in the Araruama lagoon focusing on the Itajurú channel region considering the present mean sea level and a foreseen sea level rise of 0.5 meters due to climate changes. The study was conducted with the aid of computer modeling for hydrodynamic and morphodynamic in SisBaHiA®. The results indicate that Araruama lagoon is composed by two hydrodynamics compartments; one is dominated by the action of the tide between the entrance of the channel and the strait of Perynas, and another one by the action of wind in narrow region between strait of Perynas and western extreme of the lagoon. With sea level rise, the magnitude of current velocities and flow rates is increased and consequently flow of sediment transport from upstream to downstream of Itajurú channel is increased and has more effect in the bridge Feliciano Sodré.

Keywords: hydrodinamic, superelevation, sea level, climate change

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Authors: Neelam Kadyan, Pratima Ranga, Yogender

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Indigenous people are the One who are affected by the climate change the most, although there have contributed little to its causes. This is largely a result of their historic dependence on local biological diversity, ecosystem services and cultural landscapes as a source of their sustenance and well-being. Comprising only four percent of the world’s population they utilize 22 percent of the world’s land surface. Despite their high exposure-sensitivity indigenous peoples and local communities are actively responding to changing climatic conditions and have demonstrated their resourcefulness and resilience in the face of climate change. Traditional Indigenous territories encompass up to 22 percent of the world’s land surface and they coincide with areas that hold 80 percent of the planet’s biodiversity. Also, the greatest diversity of indigenous groups coincides with the world’s largest tropical forest wilderness areas in the Americas (including Amazon), Africa, and Asia, and 11 percent of world forest lands are legally owned by Indigenous Peoples and communities. This convergence of biodiversity-significant areas and indigenous territories presents an enormous opportunity to expand efforts to conserve biodiversity beyond parks, which tend to benefit from most of the funding for biodiversity conservation. Tapping on Ancestral Knowledge Indigenous Peoples are carriers of ancestral knowledge and wisdom about this biodiversity. Their effective participation in biodiversity conservation programs as experts in protecting and managing biodiversity and natural resources would result in more comprehensive and cost effective conservation and management of biodiversity worldwide. Addressing the Climate Change Agenda Indigenous Peoples has played a key role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The territories of indigenous groups who have been given the rights to their lands have been better conserved than the adjacent lands (i.e., Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua, etc.). Preserving large extensions of forests would not only support the climate change objectives, but it would respect the rights of Indigenous Peoples and conserve biodiversity as well. A climate change agenda fully involving Indigenous Peoples has many more benefits than if only government and/or the private sector are involved. Indigenous peoples are some of the most vulnerable groups to the negative effects of climate change. Also, they are a source of knowledge to the many solutions that will be needed to avoid or ameliorate those effects. For example, ancestral territories often provide excellent examples of a landscape design that can resist the negatives effects of climate change. Over the millennia, Indigenous Peoples have developed adaptation models to climate change. They have also developed genetic varieties of medicinal and useful plants and animal breeds with a wider natural range of resistance to climatic and ecological variability.

Keywords: ancestral knowledge, cost effective conservation, management, indigenous peoples, climate change

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Authors: Keiwoma Mark Yila, Mathew Lamrana Siaffa Gboku, Mohamed Sahr Lebbie, Lamin Ibrahim Kamara

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Rainfall and temperature are the important variables which are often used to trace climate variability and change. A perception study and analysis of climatic data were conducted to assess the changes in rainfall and temperature and their impact on crop production in Moyamba district, Sierra Leone. For the perception study, 400 farmers were randomly selected from farmer-based organizations (FBOs) in 4 chiefdoms, and 30 agricultural extension workers (AWEs) in the Moyamba district were purposely selected as respondents. Descriptive statistics and Kendall’s test of concordance was used to analyze the data collected from the farmers and AEWs. Data for the analysis of variability and trends of rainfall and temperature from 1991 to 2020 were obtained from the Sierra Leone Meteorological Agency and Njala University and grouped into monthly, seasonal and annual time series. Regression analysis was used to determine the statistical values and trend lines for the seasonal and annual time series data. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope Estimator were used to analyze the trends' significance and magnitude, respectively. The results of both studies show evidence of climate change in the Moyamba district. A substantial number of farmers and AEWs perceived a decrease in the annual rainfall amount, length of the rainy season, a late start and end of the rainy season, an increase in the temperature during the day and night, and a shortened harmattan period over the last 30 years. Analysis of the meteorological data shows evidence of variability in the seasonal and annual distribution of rainfall and temperature, a decreasing and non-significant trend in the rainy season and annual rainfall, and an increasing and significant trend in seasonal and annual temperature from 1991 to 2020. However, the observed changes in rainfall and temperature by the farmers and AEWs partially agree with the results of the analyzed meteorological data. The majority of the farmers perceived that; adverse weather conditions have negatively affected crop production in the district. Droughts, high temperatures, and irregular rainfall are the three major adverse weather events that farmers perceived to have contributed to a substantial loss in the yields of the major crops cultivated in the district. In response to the negative effects of adverse weather events, a substantial number of farmers take no action due to their lack of knowledge and technical or financial capacity to implement climate-sensitive agricultural (CSA) practices. Even though few farmers are practising some CSA practices in their farms, there is an urgent need to build the capacity of farmers and AEWs to adapt to and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. The most priority support needed by farmers is the provision of climate-resilient crop varieties, whilst the AEWs need training on CSA practices.

Keywords: climate change, crop productivity, farmer’s perception, rainfall, temperature, Sierra Leone

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Authors: Vojtěch Svěrák

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Climate change ethics have recently shifted away from individualistic paradigms towards concepts of shared or collective responsibility. Despite this evolving trend, a noticeable gap remains: a lack of research exclusively addressing the moral responsibility of specific unorganized social groups. The primary objective of the article is to fill this gap. The article employs the structuralist methodological approach proposed by some feminist philosophers, utilizing structural analysis to explain the existence of social groups. The argument is made for the integration of this framework with the so-called forward-looking Social Connection Model (SCM) of responsibility, which ascribes responsibilities to individuals based on their participation in social structures. The article offers an extension of this model to justify the responsibility of unorganized social groups. The major finding of the study is that although members of unorganized groups are loosely connected, collectively they instantiate specific external social structures, share social positioning, and the notion of responsibility could be based on that. Specifically, if the structure produces harm or perpetuates injustices, and the group both benefits from and possesses the capacity to significantly influence the structure, a greater degree of responsibility should be attributed to the group as a whole. This thesis is applied and justified within the context of climate change, based on the asymmetrical positioning of different social groups. Climate change creates a triple inequality: in contribution, vulnerability, and mitigation. The study posits that different degrees of group responsibility could be drawn from these inequalities. Two social groups serve as a case study for the article: first, the Pakistan lower class, consisting of people living below the national poverty line, with a low greenhouse gas emissions rate, severe climate change-related vulnerability due to the lack of adaptation measures, and with very limited options to participate in the mitigation of climate change. Second, the so-called polluter elite, defined by members' investments in polluting companies and high-carbon lifestyles, thus with an interest in the continuation of structures leading to climate change. The first identified group cannot be held responsible for climate change, but their group interest lies in structural change and should be collectively maintained. On the other hand, the responsibility of the second identified group is significant and can be fulfilled by a justified demand for some political changes. The proposed approach of group responsibility is suggested to help navigate climate justice discourse and environmental policies, thus helping with the sustainability transition.

Keywords: collective responsibility, climate justice, climate change ethics, group responsibility, social ontology, structural analysis

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Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961-2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5 °C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change

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Authors: Rasha Aljaryian, Lalit Kumar

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Climate is undergoing continuous change and this trend will affect the cultivation areas ofmost crops, including wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), in the future. The current suitable cultivation areas may become unsuitable climatically. Countries that depend on wheat cultivation and export may suffer an economic loss because of production decline. On the other hand, some regions of the world could gain economically by increasing cultivation areas. This study models the potential future climatic suitability of wheat by using CLIMEX software. Two different global climate models (GCMs) were used, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), with two emission scenarios (A2, A1B). The results of this research indicate that the suitable climatic areas for wheat in the southern hemisphere, such as Australia, are expected to contract by the end of this century. However, some unsuitable or marginal areas will become climatically suitable under future climate scenarios. In North America and Europe further expansion inland could occur. Also, the results illustrate that heat and dry stresses as abiotic climatic factors will play an important role in wheat distribution in the future. Providing sufficient information about future wheat distribution will be useful for agricultural ministries and organizations to manage the shift in production areas in the future. They can minimize the expected harmful economic consequences by preparing strategic plans and identifying new areas for wheat cultivation.

Keywords: Climate change, Climate modelling, CLIMEX, Triticum aestivum, Wheat

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Authors: Saima Akbar, Tahseen Ullah Khan

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The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resource management and flood risk mitigation. This research was conducted to address the effects of climate change on flood incidents of Pakistan and find out gaps in existing policies to reducing the environmental aspects on floods and effects of global warming. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. The methodology integrates projected changes in monsoon patterns (since last 20 years and overall change in rainfall pattern since 1901 to 2015 from Pakistan Metrological Department), glacier melting, decreasing dam capacity and lacks in existing policies by using SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats) model in order to explore the relative impacts of global warming on the system performance. Results indicate the impacts of climate change are significant, but probably not large enough to justify a major effort for adapting the physical infrastructure to expected climatic conditions in Vision 2025 which is our shared destination to progress, ultimate aspiration to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. The conclusion of this research was to adapt sustainable measures to reduce flood impacts and make policies as neighboring countries are adapting for their sustainability.

Keywords: climatic factors, monsoon, Pakistan, sustainability

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Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

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Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model

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Authors: Hasibul Kabir, Samin Shahriar Tokey, Md. Tofazzal Hossain

Abstract:

One of the most necessary things in the present time is raising social awareness about global warming and climate change among the people. Though many types of mediums and techniques have been used to teach people about this global phenomenon, there are still more effective ways to reach people with useful information about global warming. As many traditional methods to teach people about global warming and climate change did not work well, video games were overdue. To learn how effective a video game can be in this regard, we developed a Video game, "Historia's Nightmare," that teaches people about Global warming and climate change. The game was designed to entertain people and give them an idea about the reasons and consequences of global warming and climate change while not being like traditional educational games. The game threw a mini quiz consisting of two MCQs based on the information shown in the game, where a gamer had to pass the quiz to reach the next level. We published the game on different platforms to let all types of people play and complete our experiment effectively. The game continuously communicated with our server to send data about gamers' performance. We observed the data, including the participants' performance, time spent, quiz score, and the in-game feedback on a regular basis, and finally came to a verdict. In our experiment, we have found that most participants positively accepted the game and learned something new. The participants who spent more on our game performed better in both quiz and the game. Our experiment's result demonstrates that video games can be a great way to teach people something, particularly to raise social awareness about global warming and climate change. It also demonstrates that the game can be a significant element in education and learning improvement.

Keywords: video game, global warming, social awareness, climate change, education, feedback

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Authors: Emmanuel Olugbenga Fakoya

Abstract:

The study examined the perceived impact of climate change on the livelihood of arable crop farmers in Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 80 arable crop farmers in the study area. Data collected were analyzed using percentages, frequencies and Chi square analysis. The result showed that 63.8 percent of the respondents were male while 55.0 percent were married. Less than half (30.0 percent) of the respondents were between the age bracket of 41-50 years and 50.0 percent had 6-10 household size. Furthermore, majority (40.0 percent) of the arable crop farmers farmed on an inherited land and 51.3 percent had 2-3 hectares of land. Majority (38.8 percent) of the farmers intercrop maize with cassava and maize with yam. Various strategies adapted to reduce the effect of climate change on their crop and livelihood include: crop rotation (53.8 percent), planting of leguminous crop (35.0 percent), application of organic fertilizers (45.0 percent), mulching (56.3 percent) and by planting drought resistance crops (46.5 percent). Reported among the effects of climate change on crop and farmers’ livelihood were: discoloration of crop leave (63.8 percent), increase infestation of pests and diseases (58.8 percent) and reduction of crop yield (60.0 percent). Chi- square analysis showed significant relationship between impact of climate change on arable crop production and thus famers’ livelihood. It was concluded from the study that climate change is an impinging factor that seriously affect arable crop production and hence farmers’ livelihood despite coping strategies to minimize its effect. It was however recommended that Agricultural policies and practices that could minimize or eliminate its effect should be seriously enacted to boost production and increase farmers’ livelihood.

Keywords: agricultural extension, extension agent, private sector, perception

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

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The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

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Authors: J. Julius Adebayo

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The objective of this paper is to assess the agro-climatic condition of Ibadan in the rain forest ecological zone of Nigeria, using rainfall pattern and temperature between 1978-2018. Data on rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Oyo State for a period of 40 years were obtained from Meteorological Section of Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan and Oyo State Meteorology Centre. Time series analysis was employed to analyze the data. The trend revealed that rainfall is decreasing slowly and temperature is averagely increasing year after year. The model for rainfall and temperature are Yₜ = 1454.11-8*t and Yₜ = 31.5995 + 2.54 E-02*t respectively, where t is the time. On this basis, a forecast of 20 years (2019-2038) was generated, and the results showed a further downward trend on rainfall and upward trend in temperature, this indicates persistence rainfall shortage and very hot weather for agricultural practices in the southwest rain forest ecological zone. Suggestions on possible solutions to avert climate change crisis and also promote climate-smart agriculture for sustainable food and nutrition security were also discussed.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall pattern, temperature, time series analysis, food and nutrition security

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Authors: Cuong V Nguyen, Ralph Horne, John Fien, France Cheong

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Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using a new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among components of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). To operationalize this index, the authors propose a means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically-designed household survey questionnaire. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI is demonstrated through application in case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local neighbourhood scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment, and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The SVI household survey is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions with local environmental professionals and community members. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale.

Keywords: climate change, local scale, social vulnerability, social vulnerability index

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, Nile delta, modeling

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Authors: Marcus Lee

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The energy sector is the largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in Malaysia, which induces climate change. The climate change problem is therefore an energy sector problem. Tackling climate change issues successfully is contingent on actions taken in the energy sector. The researcher propounds that ‘Climate Policy Integration’ (CPI) into energy policy is a viable and insufficiently developed strategy in Malaysia that promotes the synergies between climate change and energy objectives, in order to achieve the targets found in both climate change and energy policies. In exploring this hypothesis, this paper presentation will focus on two particular aspects. Firstly, the meaning of CPI as an approach and as a concept will be explored. As an approach, CPI into energy policy means the integration of climate change objectives into the energy policy area. Its subject matter focuses on establishing the functional interrelations between climate change and energy objectives, by promoting their synergies and minimising their contradictions. However, its conceptual underpinnings are less than straightforward. Drawing from the ‘principle of integration’ found in international treaties and declarations such as the Stockholm Declaration 1972, the Rio Declaration 1992 and the United Nations Framework on Climate Change 1992 (‘UNFCCC’), this paper presentation will explore the contradictions in international standards on how the sustainable development tenets of environmental sustainability, social development and economic development are to be balanced and its relevance to CPI. Further, the researcher will consider whether authority may be derived from international treaties and declarations in order to argue for the prioritisation of environmental sustainability over the other sustainable development tenets through CPI. Secondly, this paper presentation will also explore the degree to which CPI into energy policy has been achieved and pursued in Malaysia. In particular, the strength of the conceptual framework with regard to CPI in Malaysian governance will be considered by assessing Malaysia’s National Policy on Climate Change (2009) (‘NPCC 2009’). The development (or the lack of) of CPI as an approach since the publication of the NPCC 2009 will also be assessed based on official government documents and policies that may have a climate change and/or energy agenda. Malaysia’s National Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan (2010), draft National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (2014), Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (2015) in relation to the Paris Agreement, 11th Malaysia Plan (2015) and Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC (2015) will be discussed. These documents will be assessed for the presence of CPI based on the language/drafting of the documents as well as the degree of subject matter regarding CPI expressed in the documents. Based on the analysis, the researcher will propose solutions on how to improve Malaysia’s climate change and energy governance. The theory of reflexive governance will be applied to CPI. The concluding remarks will be about whether CPI reflects reflexive governance by demonstrating how the governance process can be the object of shaping outcomes.

Keywords: climate policy integration, mainstreaming, policy coherence, Malaysian energy governance

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Authors: Gulfam Hasan, Ijaz Ashraf, Saleem Ashraf, Muhammad Rafay Muzammil, Salman Asghar, Shafiq-Ur-Rehman Zia

Abstract:

The word “climate change” has become the most popular term when anyone observes any uncertain climate variation in their respective region. Asian countries are more prone to the impact of this phenomenon, and Pakistan is the leading affected country. Last few years, governments all over the world have been trying to cater to this issue for the best entrust of their population, especially agriculture. Now the farmers in Pakistan are fully aware of the term “climate change” and are more concerned about its solutions. On the other hand, developed countries like the USA are setting a benchmark for developing countries in every sphere of life. Based on cultural and other variations, the research was carried out to identify the behavior of farmers regarding the same issue. Cross-sectional survey research was designed for an in-depth study of relevant research questions. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in Pakistan, while virtual and face-to-face interviews were conducted in the Indiana State of the USA. The results of the present study and the responses of farmers were very interesting. The common climate change mitigation strategies suggested by farmers of both countries were less use of motor vehicles (replacement with bicycles in the circle of 10 Km), less dependency on chemical fertilizers (increased use of Manure, Bio-fertilizer, Compost), and plantation of the tree. The difference of opinion was in less government interest, lack of farmers’ education, political instability (views of Pakistani farmers), awareness of local communities, self-satisfaction, and economic disparities (views of USA farmers). Based on the given evidence, it was recommended that there is a dire need to address the climate change issue all over the world without discrimination of race, color, region, or religion. Because it will affect not only agriculture but also the real effect will be on HUMANITY.

Keywords: climate change, mitigation strategies, forests, biodiversity

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Authors: Tayib Bromand, Keisuke Sato

Abstract:

This paper presents the introduction to current water balance and climate change assessment in the Kabul river basin. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different components of water resources and hydrology in the Kabul river basin. The eastern part of Afghanistan, the Kabul river basin was chosen due to rapid population growth and land degradation to quantify the potential influence of Gobal Climate Change on its hydrodynamic characteristics. Luck of observed meteorological data was the main limitation of present research, few existed precipitation stations in the plain area of Kabul basin selected to compare with TRMM precipitation records, the result has been evaluated satisfactory based on regression and normal ratio methods. So the TRMM daily precipitation and NCEP temperature data set applied in the SWAT model to evaluate water balance for 2008 to 2012. Middle of the twenty – first century (2064) selected as the target period to assess impacts of climate change on hydrology aspects in the Kabul river basin. For this purpose three emission scenarios, A2, A1B and B1 and four GCMs, such as MIROC 3.2 (Med), CGCM 3.1 (T47), GFDL-CM2.0 and CNRM-CM3 have been selected, to estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model. The outputs of the model compared and calibrated based on (R2) satisfactory. The assessed hydrodynamic characteristics and precipitation pattern. The results show that there will be significant impacts on precipitation patter such as decreasing of snowfall in the mountainous area of the basin in the Winter season due to increasing of 2.9°C mean annual temperature and land degradation due to deforestation.

Keywords: climate change, emission scenarios, hydrological components, Kabul river basin, SWAT model

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Authors: Simiso Fisokuhle Nyandeni

Abstract:

Climate change has turned out to be a pandemic that has drawn the attention of many countries’ households around the globe, especially those whose livelihood and economic status depend on agricultural productivity. Hence, the agricultural sector is regarded as the sector that is most dependent on climate conditions for its productivity/harvest, yet in recent years this sector has been experiencing drought. However, adaptation seems to be a tool that every farmer looks upon as a solution to their challenges as their productivity keeps on being vulnerable to climate effects. Thus, exposure/access to the market seems to be a major challenge that faces especially small-scale farmers. We, therefore, examine the small-scale farmers’ constraints or challenges towards getting access to the market for them to get proper sales of their farming products. As a result, the adaptation capacity of every farm household varies on the financial status.

Keywords: climate change, small-scale farming, agriculture sector, adaptation

Procedia PDF Downloads 52