Search results for: causal analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 26985

Search results for: causal analysis

26925 Law, Regulatory Transformations and Evolving Paradigm: The Case of Corporate Social Responsibility in India

Authors: Shuchi Bharti

Abstract:

This article intends to analyse the transforming nature of state and corporate sector relationship in the light of evolving regulatory and institutional aspects pertaining to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in India. The focus is on evaluating the accounts of law and decentred discourses, relevant within the changing regulatory and institutional paradigm that substantially goes ahead of formal legal control of state towards corporate actors. At this vantage point, it is important to understand the state’s posture towards a changing scenario particularly as the tone is set by regulatory parameters pertaining to CSR to drive process of engagement with the stakeholders. The tripartite framework of the article intends to focus on finding on the vital interconnected aspects of the CSR provisions (Section 135) of The Companies Act 2013 (The Act), rise of new institutions and the emergence of the decentred regulatory space. Thus is earmarked in a neo-liberal paradigm; state is witnessed to perform a responsive function in engendering enhanced public role for the corporate sector. In this overarching framework the aim is to undertake a causal, exploratory and relational analysis of aspects pertaining law, regulation and institutional transformations. Firstly, focus is drawn on to investigate the relational facets of the advent of law and regulatory framework of CSR. Secondly, in the light of the historical evolution, a causal connection is attempted between globalization, emergence of international soft law framework and the Indian case of CSR. Finally, I look into how the new Companies Act mandates CSR expenditure vis- a -vis multiple parameters and guidelines.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, stakeholders, soft law, decentred regulation

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26924 Reconceptualizing “Best Practices” in Public Sector

Authors: Eftychia Kessopoulou, Styliani Xanthopoulou, Ypatia Theodorakioglou, George Tsiotras, Katerina Gotzamani

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Public sector managers frequently herald that implementing best practices as a set of standards, may lead to superior organizational performance. However, recent research questions the objectification of best practices, highlighting: a) the inability of public sector organizations to develop innovative administrative practices, as well as b) the adoption of stereotypical renowned practices inculcated in the public sector by international governance bodies. The process through which organizations construe what a best practice is, still remains a black box that is yet to be investigated, given the trend of continuous changes in public sector performance, as well as the burgeoning interest of sharing popular administrative practices put forward by international bodies. This study aims to describe and understand how organizational best practices are constructed by public sector performance management teams, like benchmarkers, during the benchmarking-mediated performance improvement process and what mechanisms enable this construction. A critical realist action research methodology is employed, starting from a description of various approaches on best practice nature when a benchmarking-mediated performance improvement initiative, such as the Common Assessment Framework, is applied. Firstly, we observed the benchmarker’s management process of best practices in a public organization, so as to map their theories-in-use. As a second step we contextualized best administrative practices by reflecting the different perspectives emerged from the previous stage on the design and implementation of an interview protocol. We used this protocol to conduct 30 semi-structured interviews with “best practice” process owners, in order to examine their experiences and performance needs. Previous research on best practices has shown that needs and intentions of benchmarkers cannot be detached from the causal mechanisms of the various contexts in which they work. Such causal mechanisms can be found in: a) process owner capabilities, b) the structural context of the organization, and c) state regulations. Therefore, we developed an interview protocol theoretically informed in the first part to spot causal mechanisms suggested by previous research studies and supplemented it with questions regarding the provision of best practice support from the government. Findings of this work include: a) a causal account of the nature of best administrative practices in the Greek public sector that shed light on explaining their management, b) a description of the various contexts affecting best practice conceptualization, and c) a description of how their interplay changed the organization’s best practice management.

Keywords: benchmarking, action research, critical realism, best practices, public sector

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26923 Causal Inference Engine between Continuous Emission Monitoring System Combined with Air Pollution Forecast Modeling

Authors: Yu-Wen Chen, Szu-Wei Huang, Chung-Hsiang Mu, Kelvin Cheng

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This paper developed a data-driven based model to deal with the causality between the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS, by Environmental Protection Administration, Taiwan) in industrial factories, and the air quality around environment. Compared to the heavy burden of traditional numerical models of regional weather and air pollution simulation, the lightweight burden of the proposed model can provide forecasting hourly with current observations of weather, air pollution and emissions from factories. The observation data are included wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, temperature and others. The observations can be collected real time from Open APIs of civil IoT Taiwan, which are sourced from 439 weather stations, 10,193 qualitative air stations, 77 national quantitative stations and 140 CEMS quantitative industrial factories. This study completed a causal inference engine and gave an air pollution forecasting for the next 12 hours related to local industrial factories. The outcomes of the pollution forecasting are produced hourly with a grid resolution of 1km*1km on IIoTC (Industrial Internet of Things Cloud) and saved in netCDF4 format. The elaborated procedures to generate forecasts comprise data recalibrating, outlier elimination, Kriging Interpolation and particle tracking and random walk techniques for the mechanisms of diffusion and advection. The solution of these equations reveals the causality between factories emission and the associated air pollution. Further, with the aid of installed real-time flue emission (Total Suspension Emission, TSP) sensors and the mentioned forecasted air pollution map, this study also disclosed the converting mechanism between the TSP and PM2.5/PM10 for different region and industrial characteristics, according to the long-term data observation and calibration. These different time-series qualitative and quantitative data which successfully achieved a causal inference engine in cloud for factory management control in practicable. Once the forecasted air quality for a region is marked as harmful, the correlated factories are notified and asked to suppress its operation and reduces emission in advance.

Keywords: continuous emission monitoring system, total suspension particulates, causal inference, air pollution forecast, IoT

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26922 A Configurational Approach to Understand the Effect of Organizational Structure on Absorptive Capacity: Results from PLS and fsQCA

Authors: Murad Ali, Anderson Konan Seny Kan, Khalid A. Maimani

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Based on the theory of organizational design and the theory of knowledge, this study uses complexity theory to explain and better understand the causal impacts of various patterns of organizational structural factors stimulating absorptive capacity (ACAP). Organizational structure can be thought of as heterogeneous configurations where various components are often intertwined. This study argues that impact of the traditional variables which define a firm’s organizational structure (centralization, formalization, complexity and integration) on ACAP is better understood in terms of set-theoretic relations rather than correlations. This study uses a data sample of 347 from a multiple industrial sector in South Korea. The results from PLS-SEM support all the hypothetical relationships among the variables. However, fsQCA results suggest the possible configurations of centralization, formalization, complexity, integration, age, size, industry and revenue factors that contribute to high level of ACAP. The results from fsQCA demonstrate the usefulness of configurational approaches in helping understand equifinality in the field of knowledge management. A recent fsQCA procedure based on a modeling subsample and holdout subsample is use in this study to assess the predictive validity of the model under investigation. The same type predictive analysis is also made through PLS-SEM. These analyses reveal a good relevance of causal solutions leading to high level of ACAP. In overall, the results obtained from combining PLS-SEM and fsQCA are very insightful. In particular, they could help managers to link internal organizational structural with ACAP. In other words, managers may comprehend finely how different components of organizational structure can increase the level of ACAP. The configurational approach may trigger new insights that could help managers prioritize selection criteria and understand the interactions between organizational structure and ACAP. The paper also discusses theoretical and managerial implications arising from these findings.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, organizational structure, PLS-SEM, fsQCA, predictive analysis, modeling subsample, holdout subsample

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26921 Analysing Causal Effect of London Cycle Superhighways on Traffic Congestion

Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan

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Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. But often such interventions are made in the absence of sound evidence on what outcomes may result. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode which aims to cut traffic congestion. The estimation of the impacts of the cycle superhighways on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-innervation and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network, and the result would help effective decision making to improve network performance.

Keywords: average treatment effect, confounder, difference-in-difference, intelligent transportation system, potential outcome

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26920 The Role of the Injured Party's Fault in the Apportionment of Damages in Tort Law: A Comparative-Historical Study between Common Law and Islamic Law

Authors: Alireza Tavakoli Nia

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In order to understand the role of the injured party's fault in dividing liability, we studied its historical background. In common law, the traditional contributory negligence rule was a complete defense. Then the legislature and judicial procedure modified that rule to one of apportionment. In Islamic law, too, the Action rule was at first used when the injured party was the sole cause, but jurists expanded the scope of this rule, so this rule was used in cases where both the injured party's fault and that of the other party are involved. There are some popular approaches for apportionment of damages. Some common law countries like Britain had chosen ‘the causal potency approach’ and ‘fixed apportionment’. Islamic countries like Iran have chosen both ‘the relative blameworthiness’ and ‘equal apportionment’ approaches. The article concludes that both common law and Islamic law believe in the division of responsibility between a wrongdoer claimant and the defendant. In contrast, in the apportionment of responsibility, Islamic law mostly believes in equal apportionment that is way easier and saves time and money, but common law legal systems have chosen the causal potency approach, which is more complicated than the rival approach but is fairer.

Keywords: contributory negligence, tort law, damage apportionment, common law, Islamic law

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26919 The New Propensity Score Method and Assessment of Propensity Score: A Simulation Study

Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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26918 The Curse of Natural Resources: An Empirical Analysis Applied to the Case of Copper Mining in Zambia

Authors: Chomba Kalunga

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Many developing countries have a rich endowment of natural resources. Yet, amidst that wealth, living standards remain poor. At the same time, international markets have been surged with an increase in copper prices in the last twenty years. This is a presentation of the findings on the causal economic impact of Zambia’s copper mines, a country located in sub-Saharan Africa endowed with vast copper deposits on living standards using household data from 1996 to 2010, exploiting an episode where the copper prices on the international market were rising. Using an Instrumental Variable approach and controlling for constituency-level and microeconomic factors, the results show a significant impact of copper production on living standards. After splitting the constituencies close to and far away from the nearest mine, the results document that constituencies close to the mines benefited significantly from the increase in copper production, compared to their counterparts through increased levels of employment. Finally, the results are not consistent with the natural resource curse hypothesis; findings show a positive causal relationship between the presence of natural resources and socioeconomic outcomes in less developed countries, particularly for constituencies close to the mines in Zambia. Some key policy implications follow from the findings. The finding that increased copper production led to an increase in employment suggests that, in Zambias’ context, policies that promote local employment may be more beneficial to residents. Meaning that it is government policies that can help improve the living standards were government needs to work towards making this impact more substantial.

Keywords: copper prices, local development, mining, natural resources

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26917 The Guideline of Overall Competitive Advantage Promotion with Key Success Paths

Authors: M. F. Wu, F. T. Cheng, C. S. Wu, M. C. Tan

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It is a critical time to upgrade technology and increase value added with manufacturing skills developing and management strategies that will highly satisfy the customers need in the precision machinery global market. In recent years, the supply side, each precision machinery manufacturers in each country are facing the pressures of price reducing from the demand side voices that pushes the high-end precision machinery manufacturers adopts low-cost and high-quality strategy to retrieve the market. Because of the trend of the global market, the manufacturers must take price reducing strategies and upgrade technology of low-end machinery for differentiations to consolidate the market. By using six key success factors (KSFs), customer perceived value, customer satisfaction, customer service, product design, product effectiveness and machine structure quality are causal conditions to explore the impact of competitive advantage of the enterprise, such as overall profitability and product pricing power. This research uses key success paths (KSPs) approach and f/s QCA software to explore various combinations of causal relationships, so as to fully understand the performance level of KSFs and business objectives in order to achieve competitive advantage. In this study, the combination of a causal relationships, are called Key Success Paths (KSPs). The key success paths guide the enterprise to achieve the specific outcomes of business. The findings of this study indicate that there are thirteen KSPs to achieve the overall profitability, sixteen KSPs to achieve the product pricing power and seventeen KSPs to achieve both overall profitability and pricing power of the enterprise. The KSPs provide the directions of resources integration and allocation, improve utilization efficiency of limited resources to realize the continuous vision of the enterprise.

Keywords: precision machinery industry, key success factors (KSFs), key success paths (KSPs), overall profitability, product pricing power, competitive advantages

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26916 Probabilistic Approach to Contrast Theoretical Predictions from a Public Corruption Game Using Bayesian Networks

Authors: Jaime E. Fernandez, Pablo J. Valverde

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodological approach that aims to contrast/validate theoretical results from a corruption network game through probabilistic analysis of simulated microdata using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The research develops a public corruption model in a game theory framework. Theoretical results suggest a series of 'optimal settings' of model's exogenous parameters that boost the emergence of corruption. The paper contrasts these outcomes with probabilistic inference results based on BNs adjusted over simulated microdata. Principal findings indicate that probabilistic reasoning based on BNs significantly improves parameter specification and causal analysis in a public corruption game.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, probabilistic reasoning, public corruption, theoretical games

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26915 Resilience in Children: A Comparative Analysis between Children with and without Parental Supervision Bandar Abbas

Authors: N. Taghinejad, F. Dortaj, N. Khodabandeh

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This research aimed at comparing resilience among male and female children with and without parental supervision in Bandar Abbas. The sample consists of 200 subjects selected through cluster sampling. The research method was comparative causal and Conner and Davidson’s questionnaire form resilience was used for data collection. Results indicated that there is no difference between children with and without parental supervision regarding their resilience capacity. These findings may be challenging and useful for psychologists, officials of children’s affairs and legislators.

Keywords: resilience, children , children with parental supervision, children without parental supervision

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26914 Competition, Stability, and Economic Growth: A Causality Approach

Authors: Mahvish Anwaar

Abstract:

Research Question: In this paper, we explore the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Research Findings: The unbalanced panel data starting from 2000 to 2018 is collected to analyze the causality among banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. The main focus of the study is to check the direction of causality among selected variables. The results of the study support the demand following, supply leading, feedback, and neutrality hypothesis conditional to different measures of banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Theoretical Implication: Jayakumar, Pradhan, Dash, Maradana, and Gaurav (2018) proposed a theoretical model of the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth by using different indicators. So, we empirically test the proposed indicators in our study. This study makes a contribution to the literature by showing the defined relationship between developing and developed countries. Policy Implications: The study covers various policy implications regarding investors to analyze how to properly manage their finances, and government agencies will take help from the present study to find the best and most suitable policies by examining how the economy can grow concerning its finances.

Keywords: competition, stability, economic growth, vector auto-regression, granger causality

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26913 Dynamic Risk Model for Offshore Decommissioning Using Bayesian Belief Network

Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

Abstract:

The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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26912 Causal-Comparative Study on the Benefit of Faculty Intervention on Student Academic Performance

Authors: Anne Davies

Abstract:

Numerous students matriculating into university programs are surprised to find they are underprepared for the academic challenges of undergraduate studies. In many cases, they are unaware of their weaknesses as a scholar and unsure of how to develop their skills to succeed academically. Hypothesis: Early proactive intervention from faculty and staff members can mitigate academic issues and promote better student success outcomes. Method: After three weeks in their first semester, first-year students struggling-academically were recruited to attend individual weekly remediation sessions to develop effective learning practices. A causal-comparative methodology was used to evaluate their progress as compared to prior students with similar academic performances. Observations: Students welcomed the intervention from faculty and staff to remediate their individual needs. Those who received help in the third week had better outcomes than previous students with comparable performances who did not receive any interventional support. At the end of the semester, most students were back on track to complete their chosen degree programs. Conclusions: Early intervention by faculty and staff can improve the success of students in maintaining their status in their programs. In the future, this program will be incorporated into all first-year experience courses.

Keywords: Academic outcomes, program retention, remediation, undergraduate students

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26911 Two-Level Graph Causality to Detect and Predict Random Cyber-Attacks

Authors: Van Trieu, Shouhuai Xu, Yusheng Feng

Abstract:

Tracking attack trajectories can be difficult, with limited information about the nature of the attack. Even more difficult as attack information is collected by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) due to the current IDSs having some limitations in identifying malicious and anomalous traffic. Moreover, IDSs only point out the suspicious events but do not show how the events relate to each other or which event possibly cause the other event to happen. Because of this, it is important to investigate new methods capable of performing the tracking of attack trajectories task quickly with less attack information and dependency on IDSs, in order to prioritize actions during incident responses. This paper proposes a two-level graph causality framework for tracking attack trajectories in internet networks by leveraging observable malicious behaviors to detect what is the most probable attack events that can cause another event to occur in the system. Technically, given the time series of malicious events, the framework extracts events with useful features, such as attack time and port number, to apply to the conditional independent tests to detect the relationship between attack events. Using the academic datasets collected by IDSs, experimental results show that the framework can quickly detect the causal pairs that offer meaningful insights into the nature of the internet network, given only reasonable restrictions on network size and structure. Without the framework’s guidance, these insights would not be able to discover by the existing tools, such as IDSs. It would cost expert human analysts a significant time if possible. The computational results from the proposed two-level graph network model reveal the obvious pattern and trends. In fact, more than 85% of causal pairs have the average time difference between the causal and effect events in both computed and observed data within 5 minutes. This result can be used as a preventive measure against future attacks. Although the forecast may be short, from 0.24 seconds to 5 minutes, it is long enough to be used to design a prevention protocol to block those attacks.

Keywords: causality, multilevel graph, cyber-attacks, prediction

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26910 Casual Effects of Informal Care and Health on Falls and Other Accidents among the Elderly Population in China

Authors: Hong Wu, Naiji Lu, Chenguang Wang, Xinming Tu

Abstract:

This article analyzes the causal effects of informal care, mental health, and physical health on falls and other accidents (e.g. traffic accidents) among elderly people. To purge potential reversal causal effects, e.g., past accidents induce more future informal care, we use two-stage least squares to identify the impacts. By using longitudinal data from a representative national China Health and retirement longitudinal study of people aged 45 and older in China, our findings indicate that informal care decreases while poor health conditions increase the occurrence of accidents. We also find heterogeneous impacts on the occurrence of accidents, varying by gender, urban status, and past accident history. Our findings suggest the following three policy implications. First, policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care to elders into account. Second, ease of birth policy and postponed retirement policy are urgent to meet the demand of informal care. Third, medical policies should attach great importance to not only physical health but also mental health of elderly parents especially for older people with accident history.

Keywords: accident, China, fall, informal care, mental health, physical health

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26909 Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Testimony of Selected Sub-Saharan Africa Countries

Authors: Alfred Quarcoo

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The main purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa using panel data techniques. An annual data on energy consumption and Economic Growth (proxied by real gross domestic product per capita) spanning from 1990 to 2016 from the World bank index database was used. The results of the Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test shows that the series for all countries are not stationary at levels. However, the log of economic growth in Benin and Congo become stationary after taking the differences of the data, and log of energy consumption become stationary for all countries and Log of economic growth in Kenya and Zimbabwe were found to be stationary after taking the second differences of the panel series. The findings of the Johansen cointegration test demonstrate that the variables Log of Energy Consumption and Log of economic growth are not co-integrated for the cases of Kenya and Zimbabwe, so no long-run relationship between the variables were established in any country. The Granger causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality running from energy use to economic growth in Kenya and no causal linkage between Energy consumption and economic growth in Benin, Congo and Zimbabwe.

Keywords: Cointegration, Granger Causality, Sub-Sahara Africa, World Bank Development Indicators

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26908 Family, Neighbourhood and Psychosocial Environmental Factors and Their Association with Asthma in Australia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: K. M. Shahunja, Peter D. Sly, Tahmina Begum, Tuhin Biswas, Abdullah Mamun

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Background: Various associations between different environmental exposures and asthma have been reported in different countries and populations. We aimed to investigate the associations between family, neighbourhood, and psychosocial environmental factors and asthma in Australia by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We analysed the primary research studies conducted in Australia across multiple databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus, and published between 2000 and 2020. The reviews and analyses focused on the overall association of different environmental exposures with the development or exacerbation of asthma symptoms or asthma-related hospital visits. Quality-effect meta-analysis was done to estimate the pooled odds ratio for different environmental exposures for asthma symptoms. Findings: Among the 4,799 unique published articles found, 46 were included here for systematic review and 28 for meta-analysis. Our review found that psychosocial factors, including low socioeconomic condition, maternal depression, mental stress, ethnicity, and discrimination, are associated with asthma symptoms. Pooled analysis was conducted on family and neighbourhood environmental factors and revealed that environmental tobacco smoking (ETS) (OR 1·69, 95% CI 1·19–2.38), synthetic bedding (OR 1·91, 95% CI 1·48–2·47) and gas heaters (OR 1·40, 95% CI 1·12–1·76) had significant overall associations with asthma-symptoms in Australia. Conclusion: Although the studies were heterogeneous, both systematic review and meta-analysis found several psychosocial and family environmental exposures to be significantly associated with asthma symptoms. Further study to identify their causal relationship and modification may reduce asthma symptoms in the Australian population.

Keywords: asthma, Australia, environment, systematic review

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26907 Understanding Natural Resources Governance in Canada: The Role of Institutions, Interests, and Ideas in Alberta's Oil Sands Policy

Authors: Justine Salam

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As a federal state, Canada’s constitutional arrangements regarding the management of natural resources is unique because it gives complete ownership and control of natural resources to the provinces (subnational level). However, the province of Alberta—home to the third largest oil reserves in the world—lags behind comparable jurisdictions in levying royalties on oil corporations, especially oil sands royalties. While Albertans own the oil sands, scholars have argued that natural resource exploitation in Alberta benefits corporations and industry more than it does Albertans. This study provides a systematic understanding of the causal factors affecting royalties in Alberta to map dynamics of power and how they manifest themselves during policy-making. Mounting domestic and global public pressure led Alberta to review its oil sands royalties twice in less than a decade through public-commissioned Royalty Review Panels, first in 2007 and again in 2015. The Panels’ task was to research best practices and to provide policy recommendations to the Government through public consultations with Albertans, industry, non-governmental organizations, and First Nations peoples. Both times, the Panels recommended a relative increase to oil sands royalties. However, irrespective of the Reviews’ recommendations, neither the right-wing 2007 Progressive Conservative Party (PC) nor the left-wing 2015 New Democratic Party (NDP) government—both committed to increase oil sands royalties—increased royalty intake. Why did two consecutive political parties at opposite ends of the political spectrum fail to account for the recommendations put forward by the Panel? Through a qualitative case-study analysis, this study assesses domestic and global causal factors for Alberta’s inability to raise oil sands royalties significantly after the two Reviews through an institutions, interests, and ideas framework. Indeed, causal factors can be global (e.g. market and price fluctuation) or domestic (e.g. oil companies’ influence on the Alberta government). The institutions, interests, and ideas framework is at the intersection of public policy, comparative studies, and political economy literatures, and therefore draws multi-faceted insights into the analysis. To account for institutions, the study proposes to review international trade agreements documents such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) because they have embedded Alberta’s oil sands into American energy security policy and tied Canadian and Albertan oil policy in legal international nods. To account for interests, such as how the oil lobby or the environment lobby can penetrate governmental decision-making spheres, the study draws on the Oil Sands Oral History project, a database of interviews from government officials and oil industry leaders at a pivotal time in Alberta’s oil industry, 2011-2013. Finally, to account for ideas, such as how narratives of Canada as a global ‘energy superpower’ and the importance of ‘energy security’ have dominated and polarized public discourse, the study relies on content analysis of Alberta-based pro-industry newspapers to trace the prevalence of these narratives. By mapping systematically the nods and dynamics of power at play in Alberta, the study sheds light on the factors that influence royalty policy-making in one of the largest industries in Canada.

Keywords: Alberta Canada, natural resources governance, oil sands, political economy

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26906 Comparison of Self-Efficacy and Life Satisfaction in Normal Users and Users with Internet Addiction

Authors: Mansour Abdi, Hadi Molaei Yasavoli

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The purpose of this research is to comparison of self- efficacy and life satisfaction in normal users and users with internet addiction. The present study was descriptive and causal-comparative. Therefore, 304 students were selected random sampling method from students of Semnan University and completed questionnaires of internet addiction (young), Self-Efficacy Questionnaire and Life Satisfaction (SWIS). For data analysis was used the Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA). The results showed that internet addiction users have lower levels of self-efficacy and life satisfaction in comparison with normal users and the difference in p=0/0005 significantly. The findings showed that 78 percent of the variance in the dependent variables of self-efficacy and life satisfaction by grouping variables (internet addiction users and normal) is determined. Finally, considering that the rate of self-efficacy and life satisfaction is effective in the incidence of Internet addiction, it is proposed required measures are taken to enhance self-efficacy and life satisfaction in Internet users.

Keywords: self-efficacy, life satisfaction, users, internet addiction, normal users

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26905 Geotechnical Distress Evaluation of a Damaged Structure

Authors: Zulfiqar Ali, Umar Saleem, Muhammad Junaid, Rizwan Tahir

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Gulzar Mahal is a heritage site located in the city of Bahawalpur, Pakistan. The site is under a process of degradation, as cracks are appearing on the walls, roofs, and floor around the building due to differential settlement. To preserve the integrity of the structure, a geotechnical distress evaluation was carried out to evaluate the causal factors and recommend remediation measures. The research involved the characterization of the problematic soil and analysis of the observed distress with respect to the geotechnical properties. Both conventional lab and field tests were used in conjunction with the unconventional techniques like; Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and FEA. The temporal, geophysical and geotechnical evaluations have concluded that the foundation soil over the past was subjected to variations in the land use, poor drainage patterns, overloading and fluctuations in groundwater table all contributing to the differential settlements manifesting in the form of the visible shear crack across the length and breadth of the building.

Keywords: differential settlement, distress evaluation, finite element analysis, Gulzar Mahal

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26904 A Development Model of Factors Affecting Decision Making to Select Successor in Family Business of Thailand

Authors: Polvasut Mahaiamsiri, Piraphong Foosiri

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The purpose of this research is to explore the model of factors affecting decision making to select successor in family business of Thailand. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) was created from relevant theories and researches. Consequently, examine and analyse, the causal relation factors of Succession Plan, Recruitment Process and Strategic Planning, whether they have direct or indirect effects on Decision Making to Select Successor in family business. Units of analysis are selected from the family business, totalling 300 sampling. Population sampling is current owners or CEO from the percentage of six district areas in Thailand with multi-stage sampling. A set of questionnaires is used to collect data. An analysis of structural equation modelling (SEM) technique using AMOS 21 program is conducted to test the hypotheses and confirmatory factor analysis is performed and shows that these variables can be tested. The finding of this study revealed that these factors are separate constructs that combine to determine decision making to select successors.

Keywords: succession plan, family business, recruitment process, strategic planning, decision making to select successor

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26903 Nostalgic Tourism in Macau: The Bidirectional Causal Relationship between Destination Image and Experiential Value

Authors: Aliana Leong, T. C. Huan

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The purpose of Nostalgic themed tourism product is becoming popular in many countries. This study intends to investigate the role of nostalgia in destination image, experiential value and their effect on subsequent behavioral intention. The survey used stratified sampling method to include respondents from all the nearby Asian regions. The sampling is based on the data of inbound tourists provided by the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) of government of Macau. The questionnaire consisted of five sections of 5 point Likert scale questions: (1) nostalgia, (2) destination image both before and after experience, (3) expected value, (4) experiential value, and (5) future visit intention. Data was analysed with structural equation modelling. The result indicates that nostalgia plays an important part in forming destination image and experiential value before individual had a chance to experience the destination. The destination image and experiential value share a bidirectional causal relationship that eventually contributes to future visit intention. The study also discovered that while experiential value is more effective in generating destination image, the later contribute more to future visit intention. The research design measures destination image and experiential value before and after respondents had experience the destination. The distinction between destination image and expected/experiential value can be examined because the longitudinal design of research method. It also allows this study to observe how nostalgia translates to future visit intention.

Keywords: nostalgia, destination image, experiential value, future visit intention

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26902 A Modelling Analysis of Monetary Policy Rule

Authors: Wael Bakhit, Salma Bakhit

Abstract:

This paper employs a quarterly time series to determine the timing of structural breaks for interest rates in USA over the last 60 years. The Chow test is used for investigating the non-stationary, where the date of the potential break is assumed to be known. Moreover, an empirical examination of the financial sector was made to check if it is positively related to deviations from an assumed interest rate as given in a standard Taylor rule. The empirical analysis is strengthened by analysing the rule from a historical perspective and a look at the effect of setting the interest rate by the central bank on financial imbalances. The empirical evidence indicates that deviation in monetary policy has a potential causal factor in the build-up of financial imbalances and the subsequent crisis where macro prudential intervention could have beneficial effect. Thus, our findings tend to support the view which states that the probable existence of central banks has been a source of global financial crisis since the past decade.

Keywords: Taylor rule, financial imbalances, central banks, econometrics

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26901 Detecting Impact of Allowance Trading Behaviors on Distribution of NOx Emission Reductions under the Clean Air Interstate Rule

Authors: Yuanxiaoyue Yang

Abstract:

Emissions trading, or ‘cap-and-trade', has been long promoted by economists as a more cost-effective pollution control approach than traditional performance standard approaches. While there is a large body of empirical evidence for the overall effectiveness of emissions trading, relatively little attention has been paid to other unintended consequences brought by emissions trading. One important consequence is that cap-and-trade could introduce the risk of creating high-level emission concentrations in areas where emitting facilities purchase a large number of emission allowances, which may cause an unequal distribution of environmental benefits. This study will contribute to the current environmental policy literature by linking trading activity with environmental injustice concerns and empirically analyzing the causal relationship between trading activity and emissions reduction under a cap-and-trade program for the first time. To investigate the potential environmental injustice concern in cap-and-trade, this paper uses a differences-in-differences (DID) with instrumental variable method to identify the causal effect of allowance trading behaviors on emission reduction levels under the clean air interstate rule (CAIR), a cap-and-trade program targeting on the power sector in the eastern US. The major data source is the facility-year level emissions and allowance transaction data collected from US EPA air market databases. While polluting facilities from CAIR are the treatment group under our DID identification, we use non-CAIR facilities from the Acid Rain Program - another NOx control program without a trading scheme – as the control group. To isolate the causal effects of trading behaviors on emissions reduction, we also use eligibility for CAIR participation as the instrumental variable. The DID results indicate that the CAIR program was able to reduce NOx emissions from affected facilities by about 10% more than facilities who did not participate in the CAIR program. Therefore, CAIR achieves excellent overall performance in emissions reduction. The IV regression results also indicate that compared with non-CAIR facilities, purchasing emission permits still decreases a CAIR participating facility’s emissions level significantly. This result implies that even buyers under the cap-and-trade program have achieved a great amount of emissions reduction. Therefore, we conclude little evidence of environmental injustice from the CAIR program.

Keywords: air pollution, cap-and-trade, emissions trading, environmental justice

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26900 The TarMed Reform of 2014: A Causal Analysis of the Effects on the Behavior of Swiss Physicians

Authors: Camila Plaza, Stefan Felder

Abstract:

In October 2014, the TARMED reform was implemented in Switzerland. In an effort to even out the financial standing of general practitioners (including pediatricians) relative to that of specialists in the outpatient sector, the reform tackled two aspects: on the one hand, GPs would be able to bill an additional 9 CHF per patient, once per consult per day. This is referred to as the surcharge position. As a second measure, it reduced the fees for certain technical services targeted to specialists (e.g., imaging, surgical technical procedures, etc.). Given the fee-for-service reimbursement system in Switzerland, we predict that physicians reacted to the economic incentives of the reform by increasing the consults per patient and decreasing the average amount of time per consult. Within this framework, our treatment group is formed by GPs and our control group by those specialists who were not affected by the reform. Using monthly insurance claims panel data aggregated at the physician praxis level (provided by SASIS AG), for the period of January 2013-December 2015, we run difference in difference panel data models with physician and time fixed effects in order to test for the causal effects of the reform. We account for seasonality, and control for physician characteristics such as age, gender, specialty, and physician experience. Furthermore, we run the models on subgroups of physicians within our sample so as to account for heterogeneity and treatment intensities. Preliminary results support our hypothesis. We find evidence of an increase in consults per patients and a decrease in time per consult. Robustness checks do not significantly alter the results for our outcome variable of consults per patient. However, we do find a smaller effect of the reform for time per consult. Thus, the results of this paper could provide policymakers a better understanding of physician behavior and their sensitivity to financial incentives of reforms (both past and future) under the current reimbursement system.

Keywords: difference in differences, financial incentives, health reform, physician behavior

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26899 Text Analysis to Support Structuring and Modelling a Public Policy Problem-Outline of an Algorithm to Extract Inferences from Textual Data

Authors: Claudia Ehrentraut, Osama Ibrahim, Hercules Dalianis

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Policy making situations are real-world problems that exhibit complexity in that they are composed of many interrelated problems and issues. To be effective, policies must holistically address the complexity of the situation rather than propose solutions to single problems. Formulating and understanding the situation and its complex dynamics, therefore, is a key to finding holistic solutions. Analysis of text based information on the policy problem, using Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Text analysis techniques, can support modelling of public policy problem situations in a more objective way based on domain experts knowledge and scientific evidence. The objective behind this study is to support modelling of public policy problem situations, using text analysis of verbal descriptions of the problem. We propose a formal methodology for analysis of qualitative data from multiple information sources on a policy problem to construct a causal diagram of the problem. The analysis process aims at identifying key variables, linking them by cause-effect relationships and mapping that structure into a graphical representation that is adequate for designing action alternatives, i.e., policy options. This study describes the outline of an algorithm used to automate the initial step of a larger methodological approach, which is so far done manually. In this initial step, inferences about key variables and their interrelationships are extracted from textual data to support a better problem structuring. A small prototype for this step is also presented.

Keywords: public policy, problem structuring, qualitative analysis, natural language processing, algorithm, inference extraction

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26898 The Mediation Role of Loneliness in the Relationship between Interpersonal Trust and Empathy

Authors: Ghazal Doostmohammadi, Susan Rahimzadeh

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Aim: This research aimed to investigate the relationship between empathy and interpersonal trust and recognize the mediating role of loneliness between them in both genders. Methods: With a correlational descriptive design, 192 university students (130 female and 62 male) responded to the questionnaires on “empathy quotient,” “loneliness,” and “interpersonal trust” tests. These tests were designed and validated by experts in the field. Data were analysed using Pearson correlation and path analysis, which is a statistical technique that uses standard linear regression equations to determine the degree of conformity of a theoretical causal model with reality. Results: The data analysis showed that there was no significant correlation between interpersonal trust, both with loneliness (t=0.169) and empathy (t=0.186), while there was a significant negative correlation (t=0.359) between empathy and loneliness. This means that there is an inverse correlation between empathy and loneliness. The path analysis confirmed the hypothesis of the research about the mediating role of loneliness between empathy and interpersonal trust. But gender did not play a role in this relationship. Conclusion: As an outcome, clinical professionals and education trainers should pay more attention to interpersonal trust as a basic need and try to recreate and shape it to prevent people's social breakdown, and on the other hand, self-disclosure training (especially in Men), expression of feelings and courage should be given double importance to prevent the consequences of loneliness.

Keywords: empathy, loneliness, interpersonal trust, gender

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26897 Influence of Telkom Membership Card Customer Perceived Value on Retaining PT. Telkom Indonesia's Customer in 2013-2014

Authors: Eka Yuliana, Siska Shabrina Julyan

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The competitive environment and high customer’s churn rate in telecommunication industries lead Indonesian telecommunication companies become strive to offer products with more value. Offering product with more value can encourage customers to keep using the companies product. One of way to retain customer is give a membership card to the customers as practiced by PT. Telkom by giving Telkom Membership Card to PT. Telkom loyal customer. This study aims to determine the influence of Telkom Membership Card customer perceived value on retaining PT. Telkom Indonesia’s customer in 2013-2014 by using quantitative method with causal study. Analythical technique used in this study is Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to test the causal relationship with 216 owner of Telkom Membership Card in Indonesia. This study conclude that: (i) Customer perceived value on Telkom Membership Card is located in fair value zone, (ii) PT. Telkom efforts in order to retain the customers is classified as good, (iii) Customer perceived value is influencing the effort to retain the customer with the probability value less than 0.05 and level of influence 69%. Based on result of this study, PT. Telkom should (i) Improve Telkom Membership Card’s promotion because not all customer of PT. Telkom have the membership card. (iia) Adding Telkom Membership Card’s benefit such as discount at various merchant (iib) Making call center for member of Telkom Membership Card (iii) PT. Telkom should be ensure availability of their service. (iv) PT. Telkom should make a priority to customer who have telkom membership card and offers a better service.For future research should be use different variables.

Keywords: customer perceived value, customer retention, marketing, relationship marketing

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
26896 Inappropriate Prescribing Defined by START and STOPP Criteria and Its Association with Adverse Drug Events among Older Hospitalized Patients

Authors: Mohd Taufiq bin Azmy, Yahaya Hassan, Shubashini Gnanasan, Loganathan Fahrni

Abstract:

Inappropriate prescribing in older patients has been associated with resource utilization and adverse drug events (ADE) such as hospitalization, morbidity and mortality. Globally, there is a lack of published data on ADE induced by inappropriate prescribing. Our study is specific to an older population and is aimed at identifying risk factors for ADE and to develop a model that will link ADE to inappropriate prescribing. The design of the study was prospective whereby computerized medical records of 302 hospitalized elderly aged 65 years and above in 3 public hospitals in Malaysia (Hospital Serdang, Hospital Selayang and Hospital Sungai Buloh) were studied over a 7 month period from September 2013 until March 2014. Potentially inappropriate medications and potential prescribing omissions were determined using the published and validated START-STOPP criteria. Patients who had at least one inappropriate medication were included in Phase II of the study where ADE were identified by local expert consensus panel based on the published and validated Naranjo ADR probability scale. The panel also assessed whether ADE were causal or contributory to current hospitalization. The association between inappropriate prescribing and ADE (hospitalization, mortality and adverse drug reactions) was determined by identifying whether or not the former was causal or contributory to the latter. Rate of ADE avoidability was also determined. Our findings revealed that the prevalence of potential inappropriate prescribing was 58.6%. A total of ADEs were detected in 31 of 105 patients (29.5%) when STOPP criteria were used to identify potentially inappropriate medication; All of the 31 ADE (100%) were considered causal or contributory to admission. Of the 31 ADEs, 28 (90.3%) were considered avoidable or potentially avoidable. After adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, dementia, baseline activities of daily living function, and number of medications, the likelihood of a serious avoidable ADE increased significantly when a potentially inappropriate medication was prescribed (odds ratio, 11.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.014 - 24.93; p < .001). The medications identified by STOPP criteria, are significantly associated with avoidable ADE in older people that cause or contribute to urgent hospitalization but contributed less towards morbidity and mortality. Findings of the study underscore the importance of preventing inappropriate prescribing.

Keywords: adverse drug events, appropriate prescribing, health services research

Procedia PDF Downloads 375