Search results for: catastrophic%20faults
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 191

Search results for: catastrophic%20faults

161 Performance Prediction Methodology of Slow Aging Assets

Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

Abstract:

Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: artificial Intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation

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160 Deep Excavations with Embedded Retaining Walls - Diaphragm Walls

Authors: Sowmiyaa V. S., Tiruvengala Padma, Dhanasekaran B.

Abstract:

Due to urbanization, traffic congestion, air pollution and fuel consumption underground metros are constructed in urban cities nowadays. These metros reduce the commutation time and makes the daily transportation in urban cities hassle free. To construct the underground metros deep excavations are to be carried out. These excavations should be supported by an appropriate earth retaining structures to provide stability and to prevent deformation failures. The failure of deep excavations is catastrophic and hence appropriate caution need to be carried out during design and construction stages. This paper covers the construction aspects, equipment, quality control, design aspects of one of the earth retaining systems the Diaphragm Walls.

Keywords: underground metros, diaphragm wall, quality control of diaphragm wall, design aspects of diaphragm wall

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
159 Failure Detection in an Edge Cracked Tapered Pipe Conveying Fluid Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Mohamed Gaith, Zaid Haddadin, Abdulah Wahbe, Mahmoud Hamam, Mahmoud Qunees, Mohammad Al Khatib, Mohammad Bsaileh, Abd Al-Aziz Jaber, Ahmad Aqra’a

Abstract:

The crack is one of the most common types of failure in pipelines that convey fluid, and early detection of the crack may assist to avoid the piping system from experiencing catastrophic damage, which would otherwise be fatal. The influence of flow velocity and the presence of a crack on the performance of a tapered simply supported pipe containing moving fluid is explored using the finite element approach in this study. ANSYS software is used to simulate the pipe as Bernoulli's beam theory. In this paper, the fluctuation of natural frequencies and matching mode shapes for various scenarios owing to changes in fluid speed and the presence of damage is discussed in detail.

Keywords: damage detection, finite element, tapered pipe, vibration characteristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
158 Calculation of Stress Intensity Factors in Rotating Disks Containing 3D Semi-Elliptical Cracks

Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Seyed Mohammad Navid Ghoreishi

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Initiation and propagation of cracks may cause catastrophic failures in rotating disks, and hence determination of fracture parameter in rotating disks under the different working condition is very important issue. In this paper, a comprehensive study of stress intensity factors in rotating disks containing 3D semi-elliptical cracks under the different working condition is investigated. In this regard, after verification of modeling and analytical procedure, the effects of mechanical properties, rotational velocity, and orientation of cracks on Stress Intensity Factors (SIF) in rotating disks under centrifugal loading are investigated. Also, the effects of using composite patch in reduction of SIF in rotating disks are studied. By that way, the effects of patching design variables like mechanical properties, thickness, and ply angle are investigated individually.

Keywords: stress intensity factor, semi-elliptical crack, rotating disk, finite element analysis (FEA)

Procedia PDF Downloads 331
157 Health Payments and Household Wellbeing in India: Examining the Role of Health Policy Interventions

Authors: Shailender Kumar

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Current health policy pronouncements in India advocate for insurance-based financing mechanism to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), while undermine the role of comprehensive healthcare provision system. UHC is achieved when all people receive the health services they need without suffering financial hardship. This study, using 68th & 71st NSS rounds data, examines their relative and combined strength in achieving the above objective. Health-insurance has been unsuccessful in reducing prevalence and catastrophic effects of out-of-pocket payment and even dismantle the effectiveness of traditional way of health financing system. Healthcare provision is the best way forward to enhance health and well-being of households in condition if India removes existing inadequacies and inequalities in service provision across districts/states and ensure free/low cost medicines/diagnostics to the citizens.

Keywords: health policy, demand-side financing, supply-side financing, incidence of health payment

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156 Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity Investigation of Polypropylene and Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete

Authors: Erjola Reufi, Jozefita Marku, Thomas Bier

Abstract:

Ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) method has been shown for some time to provide a reliable means of estimating properties and offers a unique opportunity for direct, quick and safe control of building damaged by earthquake, fatigue, conflagration and catastrophic scenarios. On this investigation hybrid reinforced concrete has been investigated by UPV method. Hooked end steel fiber of length 50 and 30 mm was added to concrete in different proportion 0, 0.25, 0.5, and 1 % by the volume of concrete. On the other hand, polypropylene fiber of length 12, 6, 3 mm was added to concrete of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.4 % by the volume of concrete. Fifteen different mixture has been prepared to investigate the relation between compressive strength and UPV values and also to investigate on the effect of volume and type of fiber on UPV values.

Keywords: compressive strength, polypropylene fiber, steel fiber, ultrasonic pulse velocity, volume, type of fiber

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155 Mixtures of Length-Biased Weibull Distributions for Loss Severity Modelling

Authors: Taehan Bae

Abstract:

In this paper, a class of length-biased Weibull mixtures is presented to model loss severity data. The proposed model generalizes the Erlang mixtures with the common scale parameter, and it shares many important modelling features, such as flexibility to fit various data distribution shapes and weak-denseness in the class of positive continuous distributions, with the Erlang mixtures. We show that the asymptotic tail estimate of the length-biased Weibull mixture is Weibull-type, which makes the model effective to fit loss severity data with heavy-tailed observations. A method of statistical estimation is discussed with applications on real catastrophic loss data sets.

Keywords: Erlang mixture, length-biased distribution, transformed gamma distribution, asymptotic tail estimate, EM algorithm, expectation-maximization algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
154 Park’s Vector Approach to Detect an Inter Turn Stator Fault in a Doubly Fed Induction Machine by a Neural Network

Authors: Amel Ourici

Abstract:

An electrical machine failure that is not identified in an initial stage may become catastrophic and it may suffer severe damage. Thus, undetected machine faults may cascade in it failure, which in turn may cause production shutdowns. Such shutdowns are costly in terms of lost production time, maintenance costs, and wasted raw materials. Doubly fed induction generators are used mainly for wind energy conversion in MW power plants. This paper presents a detection of an inter turn stator fault in a doubly fed induction machine whose stator and rotor are supplied by two pulse width modulation (PWM) inverters. The method used in this article to detect this fault, is based on Park’s Vector Approach, using a neural network.

Keywords: doubly fed induction machine, PWM inverter, inter turn stator fault, Park’s vector approach, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 566
153 Civil Nuclear Liability Indian Perspective

Authors: Shivani Gupta, Shrishti Chaturvedi

Abstract:

By using a miniscule of nuclear matter, the problem of immeasurable human needs for energy can be resolved. However since nuclear energy also has the inherent potential for catastrophic destruction, one should be extremely mindful of the consequences should a mischance occur. Civil Nuclear Liability has recently gained a lot of momentum after India entered into agreements with nations like United States of America, France and others. Also now India is a part of the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC). With a history of Bhopal Gas Tragedy, India is now much more vigilant about the latest developments in this sector. Therefore, it has become imperative to analyses the liability regime in the background of international conventions such as Vienna Convention 1963, Paris Convention 1960, Convention on Supplementary Compensation, 1997 and others. Also the present Indian legal scenarios in this regard which are derived from Civil Liability for Nuclear Damages Act, 2010 and Civil Liability for Nuclear Damages Rules, 2011 have also been extensively discussed in the paper.

Keywords: nuclear liability, civil liability for nuclear damages act, 2010, civil liability for nuclear damages rules, India

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152 Numerical Modeling of Structural Failure of a Ship During the Collision Event

Authors: Adjal Yassine, Semmani Amar

Abstract:

During the last decades, The risk of collision has been increased, especially in high maritime traffic. As the consequence, the demand is required for safety at sea and environmental protection. For this purpose, the consequences prediction of ship collisions is recommended in order to minimize structural failure. additionally, at the design stage of the ship, damage generated during the collision event must be taken into consideration. This structural failure, in some cases, can develop into the progressive collapse of other structural elements and generate catastrophic consequences. The present study investigates the progressive collapse of ships damaged by collisions using the Non -linear finite element method. The failure criteria are taken into account. The impacted area has a refined mesh in order to have more reliable results. Finally, a parametric study was conducted in this study to highlight the effect of the ship's speed, as well as the different impacted areas of double-bottom ships.

Keywords: collsion, strucural failure, ship, finite element analysis

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151 Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, Flash Flooding and Organisational Resilience Capacity: Qualitative Findings on Implications of the Catastrophic 2017 Flash Flood Event in Mandra, Greece

Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Loannis Nikolaou

Abstract:

On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece's deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event too small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs' resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioral responses and experiences, can feed into a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organizational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
150 Experimental Investigation on Tsunami Acting on Bridges

Authors: Iman Mazinani, Zubaidah Ismail, Ahmad Mustafa Hashim, Amir Reza Saba

Abstract:

Two tragic tsunamis that devastated the west coast of Sumatra Island, Indonesia in 2004 and North East Japan in 2011 had damaged bridges to various extents. Tsunamis have resulted in the catastrophic deterioration of infrastructures i.e. coastal structures, utilities and transportation facilities. A bridge structure performs vital roles to enable people to perform activities related to their daily needs and for development. A damaged bridge needs to be repaired expeditiously. In order to understand the effects of tsunami forces on bridges, experimental tests are carried out to measure the characteristics of hydrodynamic force at various wave heights. Coastal bridge models designed at a 1:40 scale are used in a 24.0 m long hydraulic flume with a cross section of 1.5 m by 2.0 m. The horizontal forces and uplift forces in all cases show that forces increase nonlinearly with increasing wave amplitude.

Keywords: tsunami, bridge, horizontal force, uplift force

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149 Links between Landscape Management and Environmental Risk Assessment: Considerations from the Italian Context

Authors: Mara Balestrieri, Clara Pusceddu

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Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society, and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. How planners relate to this problem and which aspects should be monitored in order to prepare responsible and useful interventions?

Keywords: assessment, landscape, risk, planning

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148 The Cult of St. Agata as Cultural Mark of Heritage Community Resilience in Abruzzo (Italy, Central Apennine)

Authors: Carmen Soria

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The aim of this paper is the study of the cultural and anthropological consequences of the historical natural disasters in Abruzzo (Italy, Central Apennine). These events have left cultural marks in local traditions as well as mythological stories, specific cults, or sanctuary areas in apotropaic function to prevent catastrophic events. Despite the difficult to find archaeological evidence of natural disasters, neverthless, the analisys of micro placenames, directly or indirectly related to such events, represents an integrated and interdisciplinary approach between seismology studies and landscape analysis. Toponymic data, indeed, highlight the strong relation between geomorphological features of areas affected by natural disasters and heritage community resilience, such as, for example, the cult of St. Agatha, widespread in the nearby of healing spring-water and ancient caves as a place of worship, in continuity with pagan rituals.

Keywords: abruzzo, heritage community resilience, seismic planames, St. agata

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147 Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Fire and Explosion of Crude Oil Tanks: Case Study

Authors: B. Zerouali, M. Kara, B. Hamaidi, H. Mahdjoub, S. Rouabhia

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In this paper, a safety analysis for crude oil tanks to prevent undesirable events that may cause catastrophic accidents. The estimation of the probability of damage to industrial systems is carried out through a series of steps, and in accordance with a specific methodology. In this context, this work involves developing an assessment tool and risk analysis at the level of crude oil tanks system, based primarily on identification of various potential causes of crude oil tanks fire and explosion by the use of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), then improved risk modelling by Bayesian Networks (BNs). Bayesian approach in the evaluation of failure and quantification of risks is a dynamic analysis approach. For this reason, have been selected as an analytical tool in this study. Research concludes that the Bayesian networks have a distinct and effective method in the safety analysis because of the flexibility of its structure; it is suitable for a wide variety of accident scenarios.

Keywords: bayesian networks, crude oil tank, fault tree, prediction, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 629
146 A Hybrid Model Tree and Logistic Regression Model for Prediction of Soil Shear Strength in Clay

Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 165
145 New Stress Instability Workability Criteria for Internal Ductile Failure in Steel Cold Heading

Authors: Amar Sabih, James Nemes

Abstract:

The occurrence of internal ductile failure within the Adiabatic Shear Band (ASB) in cold-headed products presents a significant barrier in the fast-expanding cold-heading (CH) industry. The presence of internal ductile failure in cold-headed products may lead to catastrophic fracture under tensile loads despite the ductile nature of the material causing expensive industrial recalls. Therefore, this paper presents a new workability criterion that uses stress instability as an indicator to accurately reveal the locus of initiation of internal ductile failures. The concept of the instability criterion is to use the stress ratio at failure as a weighting function to indicate the initiation of ductile failure inside the ASBs. This paper presents a comprehensive experimental, metallurgical, and finite element simulation study to calculate the material constants used in this criterion.

Keywords: adiabatic sher band, ductile failure, stress instability, workability criterion

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144 Influence of Sintering Temperature on Microhardness and Tribological Properties of Equi-Atomic Ti-Al-Mo-Si-W Multicomponent Alloy

Authors: Rudolf L. Kanyane, Nicolaus Malatji, Patritia A. Popoola

Abstract:

Tribological failure of materials during application can lead to catastrophic events which also carry economic penalties. High entropy alloys (HEAs) have shown outstanding tribological properties in applications such as mechanical parts were moving parts under high friction are required. This work aims to investigate the effect of sintering temperature on microhardness properties and tribological properties of novel equiatomic TiAlMoSiW HEAs fabricated via spark plasma sintering. The effect of Spark plasma sintering temperature on morphological evolution and phase formation was also investigated. The microstructure and the phases formed for the developed HEAs were examined using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffractometry (XRD) respectively. The microhardness and tribological properties were studied using a diamond base microhardness tester Rtec tribometer. The developed HEAs showed improved mechanical properties as the sintering temperature increases.

Keywords: sintering, high entropy alloy, microhardness, tribology

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
143 The Effectiveness of Energy Index Technique in Bearing Condition Monitoring

Authors: Faisal Alshammari, Abdulmajid Addali, Mosab Alrashed, Taihiret Alhashan

Abstract:

The application of acoustic emission techniques is gaining popularity, as it can monitor the condition of gears and bearings and detect early symptoms of a defect in the form of pitting, wear, and flaking of surfaces. Early detection of these defects is essential as it helps to avoid major failures and the associated catastrophic consequences. Signal processing techniques are required for early defect detection – in this article, a time domain technique called the Energy Index (EI) is used. This article presents an investigation into the Energy Index’s effectiveness to detect early-stage defect initiation and deterioration, and compares it with the common r.m.s. index, Kurtosis, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. It is concluded that EI is a more effective technique for monitoring defect initiation and development than other statistical parameters.

Keywords: acoustic emission, signal processing, kurtosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

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142 Continual Learning Using Data Generation for Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Scene Classification

Authors: Samiah Alammari, Nassim Ammour

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When providing a massive number of tasks successively to a deep learning process, a good performance of the model requires preserving the previous tasks data to retrain the model for each upcoming classification. Otherwise, the model performs poorly due to the catastrophic forgetting phenomenon. To overcome this shortcoming, we developed a successful continual learning deep model for remote sensing hyperspectral image regions classification. The proposed neural network architecture encapsulates two trainable subnetworks. The first module adapts its weights by minimizing the discrimination error between the land-cover classes during the new task learning, and the second module tries to learn how to replicate the data of the previous tasks by discovering the latent data structure of the new task dataset. We conduct experiments on HSI dataset Indian Pines. The results confirm the capability of the proposed method.

Keywords: continual learning, data reconstruction, remote sensing, hyperspectral image segmentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 216
141 A Novel Stress Instability Workability Criteria for Internal Ductile Failure in Steel Cold Heading Process

Authors: Amar Sabih, James Nemes

Abstract:

The occurrence of internal ductile failure within the Adiabatic Shear Band (ASB) in cold-headed products presents a significant barrier in the fast-expanding cold-heading (CH) industry. The presence of internal ductile failure in cold-headed products may lead to catastrophic fracture under tensile loads despite the ductile nature of the material causing expensive industrial recalls. Therefore, this paper presents a workability criterion that uses stress instability as an indicator to accurately reveal the locus of initiation of internal ductile failures. The concept of the instability criterion is to use the stress ratio at failure as a weighting function to indicate the initiation of ductile failure inside the ASBs. This paper presents a comprehensive experimental, metallurgical, and finite element simulation study to calculate the material constants used in this criterion.

Keywords: adiabatic shear band, workability criterion, ductile failure, stress instability

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
140 Saline Aspiration Negative Intravascular Test: Mitigating Risk with Injectable Fillers

Authors: Marcelo Lopes Dias Kolling, Felipe Ferreira Laranjeira, Guilherme Augusto Hettwer, Pedro Salomão Piccinini, Marwan Masri, Carlos Oscar Uebel

Abstract:

Introduction: Injectable fillers are among the most common nonsurgical cosmetic procedures, with significant growth yearly. Knowledge of rheological and mechanical characteristics of fillers, facial anatomy, and injection technique is essential for safety. Concepts such as the use of cannula versus needle, aspiration before injection, and facial danger zones have been well discussed. In case of an accidental intravascular puncture, the pressure inside the vessel may not be sufficient to push blood into the syringe due to the characteristics of the filler product; this is especially true for calcium hydroxyapatite (CaHA) or hyaluronic acid (HA) fillers with high G’. Since viscoelastic properties of normal saline are much lower than those of fillers, aspiration with saline prior to filler injection may decrease the risk of a false negative aspiration and subsequent catastrophic effects. We discuss a technique to add an additional safety step to the procedure with saline aspiration prior to injection, a ‘’reverse Seldinger’’ technique for intravascular access, which we term SANIT: Saline Aspiration Negative Intravascular Test. Objectives: To demonstrate the author’s (PSP) technique which adds an additional safety step to the process of filler injection, with both CaHA and HA, in order to decrease the risk of intravascular injection. Materials and Methods: Normal skin cleansing and topical anesthesia with prilocaine/lidocaine cream are performed; the facial subunits to be treated are marked. A 3mL Luer lock syringe is filled with 2mL of 0.9% normal saline and a 27G needle, which is turned one half rotation. When a cannula is to be used, the Luer lock syringe is attached to a 27G 4cm single hole disposable cannula. After skin puncture, the 3mL syringe is advanced with the plunger pulled back (negative pressure). Progress is made to the desired depth, all the while aspirating. Once the desired location of filler injection is reached, the syringe is exchanged for the syringe containing a filler, securely grabbing the hub of the needle and taking care to not dislodge the needle tip. Prior to this, we remove 0.1mL of filler to allow for space inside the syringe for aspiration. We again aspirate and inject retrograde. SANIT is especially useful for CaHA, since the G’ is much higher than HA, and thus reflux of blood into the syringe is less likely to occur. Results: The technique has been used safely for the past two years with no adverse events; the increase in cost is negligible (only the cost of 2mL of normal saline). Over 100 patients (over 300 syringes) have been treated with this technique. The risk of accidental intravascular puncture has been calculated to be between 1:6410 to 1:40882 syringes among expert injectors; however, the consequences of intravascular injection can be catastrophic even with board-certified physicians. Conclusions: While the risk of intravascular filler injection is low, the consequences can be disastrous. We believe that adding the SANIT technique can help further mitigate risk with no significant untoward effects and could be considered by all performing injectable fillers. Further follow-up is ongoing.

Keywords: injectable fillers, safety, saline aspiration, injectable filler complications, hyaluronic acid, calcium hydroxyapatite

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
139 Apricot Insurance Portfolio Risk

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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138 Numerical Solutions of an Option Pricing Rainfall Derivatives Model

Authors: Clarinda Vitorino Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

Abstract:

Weather derivatives are financial products used to cover non catastrophic weather events with a weather index as the underlying asset. The rainfall weather derivative pricing model is modeled based in the assumption that the rainfall dynamics follows Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and the partial differential equation approach is used to derive the convection-diffusion two dimensional time dependent partial differential equation, where the spatial variables are the rainfall index and rainfall depth. To compute the approximation solutions of the partial differential equation, the appropriate boundary conditions are suggested, and an explicit numerical method is proposed in order to deal efficiently with the different choices of the coefficients involved in the equation. Being an explicit numerical method, it will be conditionally stable, then the stability region of the numerical method and the order of convergence are discussed. The model is tested for real precipitation data.

Keywords: finite differences method, ornstein-uhlenbeck process, partial differential equations approach, rainfall derivatives

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137 Microstructure and Oxidation Behaviors of Al, Y Modified Silicide Coatings Prepared on an Nb-Si Based Ultrahigh Temperature Alloy

Authors: Xiping Guo, Jing Li

Abstract:

The microstructure of an Si-Al-Y co-deposition coating prepared on an Nb-Si based ultra high temperature alloy by pack cementation process at 1250°C for eight hours was studied. The results showed that the coating was composed of a (Nb,X)Si₂ (X represents Ti, Cr and Hf elements) outer layer, a (Ti,Nb)₅Si₄ middle layer and an Al, Cr-rich inner layer. For comparison, the oxidation behaviors of the coating at 800, 1050 and 1350°C were investigated respectively. Linear oxidation kinetics was found with the parabolic rate constants of 5.29×10⁻², 9×10⁻²and 5.81 mg² cm⁻⁴ h⁻¹, respectively. Catastrophic pesting oxidation has not been found at 800°C even for 100 h. The surface of the scale was covered by compact glassy SiO₂ film. The coating was able to effectively protect the Nb-Si based alloy from oxidation at 1350°C for at least 100 h. The formation process of the scale was testified following an epitaxial growth mechanism. The mechanism responsible for the oxidation behavior of the Si-Al-Y co-deposition coating at 800, 1050 and 1350°C was proposed.

Keywords: Nb-Si based ultra high temperature alloy, oxidation resistance, pack cementation, silicide coating, Al and Y modified

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136 Buckling Analysis of Laminated Composite Plates with Central Holes

Authors: Pratyasha Patnaik, A. V. Asha

Abstract:

Laminated composite plates are made up of plates consisting of layers bonded together and made up of materials chemically different from each other but combined macroscopically. These have an application in aircrafts, railway coaches, bridges etc. because they are easy to handle, have got improved properties and the cost of their fabrication is low. But their failure can lead to catastrophic disasters. And generally, the failure of these structures is due to the combined effect of excessive stresses on it and buckling. Hence, the buckling behavior of these kinds of plates should be analyzed properly. Holes are provided either at the center or elsewhere in the laminar plates for the purpose of pipes for electric cables or other purposes. Due to the presence of holes in the plates, the stress concentration is near to the holes and the stiffness of the plates is reduced. In this study, the effect of a cut-out, its shape, different boundary conditions, length/thickness ratio, stacking sequence, and ply orientation has been studied. The analysis was carried out with laminated composite plates with circular, square and triangular cut-outs. Results show the effect of different cut-out shapes, boundary conditions, the orientation of layers and length/thickness ratio of the buckling load

Keywords: buckling, composite plates, cut-out, stress

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135 Influence of Pier Modification Techniques for Reducing Scour around Bridge Piers

Authors: Rashid Farooq, Abdul Razzaq Ghumman, Hashim Nisar Hashmi

Abstract:

Bridge piers often fail all over the world and the whole structure may be endangered due to scouring phenomena. Scouring has been linked to catastrophic failures that lead into the loss of human lives. Various techniques have been employed to extenuate the scouring process in order to assist the bridge designs. Pier modifications plays vital role to control scouring at the vicinity of the pier. This experimental study aims at monitoring the effectiveness of pier modification and temporal development of scour depth around a bridge pier by providing a collar, a cable or openings under the same flow conditions. Provision of a collar around the octagonal pier reduced more scour depth than that for other two configurations. Providing a collar around the octagonal pier found to be the best in reducing scour. The scour depth in front of pier was found to be 19.5% less than that at the octagonal pier without any modifications. Similarly, the scour depth around the octagonal pier having provision of a cable was less than that at pier with provision of openings. The scour depth around an octagonal pier was also compared with a plain circular pier and found to be 9.1% less.

Keywords: Scour, octagonal pier, collar, cable

Procedia PDF Downloads 236
134 Improvement of the 3D Finite Element Analysis of High Voltage Power Transformer Defects in Time Domain

Authors: M. Rashid Hussain, Shady S. Refaat

Abstract:

The high voltage power transformer is the most essential part of the electrical power utilities. Reliability on the transformers is the utmost concern, and any failure of the transformers can lead to catastrophic losses in electric power utility. The causes of transformer failure include insulation failure by partial discharge, core and tank failure, cooling unit failure, current transformer failure, etc. For the study of power transformer defects, finite element analysis (FEA) can provide valuable information on the severity of defects. FEA provides a more accurate representation of complex geometries because they consider thermal, electrical, and environmental influences on the insulation models to obtain basic characteristics of the insulation system during normal and partial discharge conditions. The purpose of this paper is the time domain analysis of defects 3D model of high voltage power transformer using FEA to study the electric field distribution at different points on the defects.

Keywords: power transformer, finite element analysis, dielectric response, partial discharge, insulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
133 Development of Risk-Based Dam Safety Framework in Climate Change Condition for Batu Dam, Malaysia

Authors: Wan Noorul Hafilah Binti Wan Ariffin

Abstract:

Dam safety management is the crucial infrastructure as dam failure has a catastrophic effect on the community. Dam safety management is the effective framework of key actions and activities for the dam owner to manage the safety of the dam for its entire life cycle. However, maintaining dam safety is a challenging task as there are changes in current dam states. These changes introduce new risks to the dam's safety, which had not been considered when the dam was designed. A new framework has to be developed to adapt to the changes in the dam risk and make the dams resilient. This study proposes a risk-based decision-making adaptation framework for dam safety management. The research focuses on climate change's impact on hydrological situations as it causes floods and damages the dam structure. The risk analysis framework is adopted to improve the dam management strategies. The proposed study encompasses four phases. To start with, measuring the effect by assessing the impact of climate change on embankment dam, the second phase is to analyze the potential embankment dam failures. The third is analyzing the different components of risks related to the dam and, finally, developing a robust decision-making framework.

Keywords: climate change, embankment dam, failure, risk-informed decision making

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132 Addressing Security and Privacy Issues in a Smart Environment by Using Block-Chain as a Preemptive Technique

Authors: Shahbaz Pervez, Aljawharah Almuhana, Zahida Parveen, Samina Naz, Hira Tariq, Seyed Hosseini, Muhammad Awais Azam

Abstract:

With the latest development in the field of cutting-edge technologies, there is a rapid increase in the use of technology-oriented gadgets. In a recent scenario of the tech era, there is increasing demand to fulfill our day-to-day routine tasks with the help of technological gadgets. We are living in an era of technology where trends have been changing, and a race to introduce a new technology gadget has already begun. Smart cities are getting more popular with every passing day; city councils and governments are under enormous pressure to provide the latest services for their citizens and equip them with all the latest facilities. Thus, ultimately, they are going more into smart cities infrastructure building, providing services to their inhabitants with a single click from their smart devices. This trend is very exciting, but on the other hand, if some incident of security breach happens due to any weaker link, the results would be catastrophic. This paper addresses potential security and privacy breaches with a possible solution by using Blockchain technology in IoT enabled environment.

Keywords: blockchain, cybersecurity, DDOS, intrusion detection, IoT, RFID, smart devices security, smart services

Procedia PDF Downloads 84