Search results for: bayesian parameter identification

Authors: Saule Mussabekova

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Forensic investigation of human teeth plays an important role in detection of crime, particularly in cases of personal identification of dead bodies changed by putrefactive processes or skeletonized bodies as well as when finding bodies of unknown persons. 152 teeth have been investigated; 85 of them belonged to men and 67 belonged to women taken from alive people of different age. Teeth have been investigated after extraction. Two types of teeth have been investigated: teeth without integrity violation of dental crown and teeth with different degrees of its violation. Additionally, 517 teeth have been investigated that were collected from dead bodies, 252 of which belonged to women and 265 belonged to men, whatever the cause of death with death limitation from 1 month to 20 years. Isohemagglutinating serums and Coliclons of different series have been used for the research of tooth-group specificity by serological methods according to the AB0 system. Standard protocols of different techniques have been used for DNA purification from teeth (by reagent Chelex 100 produced by Bio-Rad using reagent kit 'DNA IQTM System' produced by Promega company (USA) and using columns 'QIAamp DNA Investigator Kit' produced by Qiagen company). Results of comparative forensic investigation of human teeth using serological and molecular genetic methods have shown that use of serological methods for forensic identification is sensible only in cases of preselection prior to the next molecular genetic investigation as well as in cases of impossibility of corresponding genetic investigation for different objective reasons. A number of advantages of methods of molecular genetics in the dental investigation have been marked, particularly in putrefactive changes, in personal identification. Key moments of modern condition of personal identification have been reflected according to dental state. Prospective directions of advance preparation of material have been emphasized for identification of teeth in forensic practice.

Keywords: dental state, forensic identification, molecular genetic analysis, teeth

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Naik Nithesh, Andre Rozek

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The heat transfer and friction loss performances of a single rib-roughened rectangular cooling channel having four novel rib shapes were evaluated through numerical investigation using Ansys CFX. The investigation was conducted on a rectangular channel of aspect ratio (AR) = 4:1 with rib height to hydraulic diameter ratio (e/Dh) of 0.1 and rib pitch to height ratio (e/P) of 10 at Re = 30,000. The computations were performed by solving the RANS equation using k-ε turbulence model. Fluid flow simulation results of stationery case for different configuration are presented in terms of thermal performance parameter, Nusselt number and friction factor. These parameters indicate that a particular configuration of novel shaped ribs provides better heat transfer characteristics over the conventional 45° ribs. The numerical investigation undertaken in this study indicates an increase in overall efficiency of gas turbine due to increased thermal performance parameter, heat transfer co-efficient and less pumping pressure.

Keywords: gas turbine, rib shapes, nusselt number, thermal performance parameter

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Authors: Young Ik Suh, Taewook Chung, Glaucio Scremin, Tywan Martin

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In May of 2016, the Philadelphia 76ers announced that StubHub, the ticket resale company, will have advertising on the team’s jerseys beginning in the 2017-18 season. The 76ers and National Basketball Association (NBA) became the first team and league which embraced jersey sponsorships in the four major U.S. professional sports. Even though many professional teams and leagues in Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America have adopted jersey sponsorship actively, this phenomenon is relatively new in America. While the jersey sponsorship provides economic gains for the professional leagues and franchises, sport fans can have different points of view for the phenomenon of jersey sponsorship. For instance, since many sport fans in U.S. are not familiar with ads on jerseys, this movement can possibly cause negative reaction such as the decrease in ticket and merchandise sales. They also concern the small size of ads on jersey become bigger ads, like in the English Premier League (EPL). However, some sport fans seem they do not mind too much about jersey sponsorship because the ads on jersey will not affect their loyalty and fanship. Therefore, the assumption of this study was that the sport fans’ reaction about jersey sponsorship can be possibly different, especially based on different levels of the sport fans’ team identification and various sizes of ads on jersey. Unlike general sponsorship in sport industry, jersey sponsorship has received little attention regarding its potential impact on sport fans attitudes and buying intentions. Thus, the current study sought to identify how the various levels of team identification influence brand attitude and buying intention in terms of jersey sponsorship. In particular, this study examined the effect of team identification on brand attitude and buying intention when there are no ads, small size ads, and large size ads on jersey. 3 (large, small, and no ads) X 3 (Team Identification: high, moderate, low) between subject factorial design was conducted on attitude toward the brand and buying intention of jersey sponsorship. The ads on Philadelphia 76ers jersey were used. The sample of this study was selected from message board users provided by different sports websites (i.e., forums.realgm.com and phillysportscentral.com). A total of 275 respondents participated in this study by responding to an online survey questionnaire. The results showed that there were significant differences between fans with high identification and fans with low identification. The findings of this study are expected to have many theoretical and practical contributions and implications by extending the research and literature pertaining to the relationship between team identification and brand strategy based upon different levels of team identification.

Keywords: brand attitude, buying intention, Jersey sponsorship, team identification

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Authors: M. Shaban, A. Alibeigloo

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This paper studies free vibration behavior of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) embedded on elastic medium based on three-dimensional theory of elasticity. To accounting the size effect of carbon nanotubes, nonlocal theory is adopted to shell model. The nonlocal parameter is incorporated into all constitutive equations in three dimensions. The surrounding medium is modeled as two-parameter elastic foundation. By using Fourier series expansion in axial and circumferential direction, the set of coupled governing equations are reduced to the ordinary differential equations in thickness direction. Then, the state-space method as an efficient and accurate method is used to solve the resulting equations analytically. Comprehensive parametric studies are carried out to show the influences of the nonlocal parameter, radial and shear elastic stiffness, thickness-to-radius ratio and radius-to-length ratio.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, embedded, nonlocal, free vibration

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Authors: Da-Ming Huang, Ya-Ting Tsai, Shyh-Hau Wang

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Ultrasound signals backscattered from the soft tissues are mainly depending on the size, density, distribution, and other elastic properties of scatterers in the interrogated sample volume. The quantitative analysis of ultrasonic backscattering is frequently implemented using the statistical approach due to that of backscattering signals tends to be with the nature of the random variable. Thus, the statistical analysis, such as Nakagami statistics, has been applied to characterize the density and distribution of scatterers of a sample. Yet, the accuracy of statistical analysis could be readily affected by the receiving signals associated with the nature of incident ultrasound wave and acoustical properties of samples. Thus, in the present study, efforts were made to explore such effects as the ultrasound operational modes and attenuation of biological tissue on the estimation of corresponding Nakagami statistical parameter (m parameter). In vitro measurements were performed from healthy and pathological fibrosis porcine livers using different single-element ultrasound transducers and duty cycles of incident tone burst ranging respectively from 3.5 to 7.5 MHz and 10 to 50%. Results demonstrated that the estimated m parameter tends to be sensitively affected by the use of ultrasound operational modes as well as the tissue attenuation. The healthy and pathological tissues may be characterized quantitatively by m parameter under fixed measurement conditions and proper calibration.

Keywords: ultrasound backscattering, statistical analysis, operational mode, attenuation

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Authors: Muhammad Sheeraz, Mehwish Ejaz

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This study endeavors to enhance the understanding of the determinants of oppositional brand loyalty, particularly within the context of fans of a sports brand. The primary focus is on investigating how oppositional brand loyalty fosters rivalry among the fans and exploring the interplay between various variables, namely self-congruence, consumer brand identification, consumer brand engagement, and narcissism, in influencing the likelihood of endorsing a rival team. The research adopts a cross-sectional survey methodology, employing a structured questionnaire distributed both online and onsite to gather responses from a representative sample of 460 PSL fans in Pakistan. The data collection process involved obtaining responses from diverse settings, including universities, shopping malls, and other public spaces frequented by PSL enthusiasts. Participants were prompted to indicate their allegiance to a specific PSL team and subsequently respond to the questionnaire based on their preferences. The findings of the study reveal that narcissism, as a moderating factor, exhibits no significant influence on consumer brand identification, consumer brand engagement, and oppositional brand loyalty. However, it does emerge as a significant moderator in the relationship between self-congruence and consumer brand identification. Particularly, consumers express brand identification through self-congruence, elucidating the existence of oppositional sentiments among PSL fans and their counterparts supporting rival teams. The implications of these results underscore the importance for marketers to establish a brand identity that resonates with consumers on a personal level. Such an approach fosters a strong sense of identification with the brand, prompting consumers to vigorously defend and support their favored brands, even in the face of opposition from rival teams. Marketers are encouraged to focus on cultivating long-term consumer loyalty, as it proves pivotal in maintaining a competitive advantage over industry counterparts.

Keywords: oppositional brand loyalty, consumer brand identification, consumer brand engagement, narcissism, self-congruence

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Authors: Ayadi Aya, Ghorbel Oussama, M. Obeid Abdulfattah, Abid Mohamed

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Nowadays, many wireless sensor networks have been distributed in the real world to collect valuable raw sensed data. The challenge is to extract high-level knowledge from this huge amount of data. However, the identification of outliers can lead to the discovery of useful and meaningful knowledge. In the field of wireless sensor networks, an outlier is defined as a measurement that deviates from the normal behavior of sensed data. Many detection techniques of outliers in WSNs have been extensively studied in the past decade and have focused on classic based algorithms. These techniques identify outlier in the real transaction dataset. This survey aims at providing a structured and comprehensive overview of the existing researches on classification based outlier detection techniques as applicable to WSNs. Thus, we have identified key hypotheses, which are used by these approaches to differentiate between normal and outlier behavior. In addition, this paper tries to provide an easier and a succinct understanding of the classification based techniques. Furthermore, we identified the advantages and disadvantages of different classification based techniques and we presented a comparative guide with useful paradigms for promoting outliers detection research in various WSN applications and suggested further opportunities for future research.

Keywords: bayesian networks, classification-based approaches, KPCA, neural networks, one-class SVM, outlier detection, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Sarah Aldhalaan, Tanzila Saba

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Healthcare sectors are increasing rapidly to fulfill patient’s needs across the world. A patient identification is considered as the main aspect for a patient to be served in healthcare institutes. Nowadays, people are presenting their insurance card along with their identification card in order to get the needed treatment in hospitals however, this process lack security preferences. The aim of this research paper is to reveal a solution to introduce and use biometrics in healthcare hospitals. The findings show that the people know biometrics since they are interacting with them through different channels and that the need for biometrics techniques to identify patients is essential. Also, the survey relevant questions are used to analyze and add insights on what is are the suitable biometrics to be used in such cases. Moreover, results are presented to exhibit the effectiveness of the used methodology and in analyzing usage of biometrics in hospitals in an enhancing way. Finally, an interesting conclusion of overall work is presented at the end of paper.

Keywords: biometrics, healthcare, fingerprint, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Sekkal Nawel

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The Web of Things (WoT), integration of smart technologies from the Internet or network to Web architecture or application, is becoming more complex, larger, and dynamic. The WoT is associated with various elements such as sensors, devices, networks, protocols, data, functionalities, and architectures to perform services for stakeholders. These services operate in the context of the interaction of stakeholders and the WoT elements. Such context is becoming a key information source from which data are of various nature and uncertain, thus leading to complex situations. In this paper, we take interest in the development of intelligent Web services. The key ingredients of this “intelligent” notion are the context diversity, the necessity of a semantic representation to manage complex situations and the capacity to reason with uncertain data. In this perspective, we introduce a multi-layered architecture based on a generic intelligent Web service model dealing with various contexts, which proactively predict future situations and reactively respond to real-time situations in order to support decision-making. For semantic context data representation, we use PR-OWL, which is a probabilistic ontology based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Networks (MEBN). PR-OWL is flexible enough to represent complex, dynamic, and uncertain contexts, the key requirements of the development for the intelligent Web services. A case study was carried out using the proposed architecture for intelligent plant watering to show the role of proactive and reactive contextual reasoning in terms of WoT.

Keywords: smart web service, the web of things, context reasoning, proactive, reactive, multi-entity bayesian networks, PR-OWL

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Authors: Sundus Mona, Atif Adnan, Babar Ali, Fareeha Arshad, Allah Rakha

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Molecular diversity is the variation in the abundance of species. Forensic entomology is a neglected field in Pakistan. Insects collected from the crime scene should be handled by forensic entomologists who are currently virtually non-existent in Pakistan. Correct identification of insect specimen along with knowledge of their biodiversity can aid in solving many problems related to complicated forensic cases. Inadequate morphological identification and insufficient thermal biological studies limit the entomological utility in Forensic Medicine. Recently molecular identification of entomological evidence has gained attention globally. DNA barcoding is the latest and established method for species identification. Only proper identification can provide a precise estimation of postmortem intervals. Arthropods are known to be the first tourists scavenging on decomposing dead matter. The objective of the proposed study was to identify species by molecular techniques and analyze their phylogenetic importance with barcoded necrophagous insect species of early succession on human cadavers. Based upon this identification, the study outcomes will be the utilization of established DNA bar codes to identify carrion feeding insect species for concordant estimation of post mortem interval. A molecular identification method involving sequencing of a 658bp ‘barcode’ fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (CO1) gene from collected specimens of unknown dipteral species from cadavers of Lahore was evaluated. Nucleotide sequence divergences were calculated using MEGA 7 and Arlequin, and a neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree was generated. Three species were identified, Chrysomya megacephala, Chrysomya saffranea, and Chrysomya rufifacies with low genetic diversity. The fixation index was 0.83992 that suggests a need for further studies to identify and classify forensically relevant insects in Pakistan. There is an exigency demand for further research especially when immature forms of arthropods are recovered from the crime scene.

Keywords: molecular diversity, DNA barcoding, species identification, forensically relevant

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Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

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Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

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Authors: Nitin Shravan, Sudarsun Santhiappan, B. Sivaselvan

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Subsection identification, in the context of Electronic Health Records (EHRs), is identifying the important sections for down-stream tasks like auto-coding. In this work, we classify the text present in EHRs according to their information, using machine learning and deep learning techniques. We initially describe briefly about the problem and formulate it as a text classification problem. Then, we discuss upon the methods from the literature. We try two approaches - traditional feature extraction based machine learning methods and deep learning methods. Through experiments on a private dataset, we establish that the deep learning methods perform better than the feature extraction based Machine Learning Models.

Keywords: deep learning, machine learning, semantic clinical classification, subsection identification, text classification

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Authors: Fuad M. Alkoot

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DNA data have been used in forensics for decades. However, current research looks at using the DNA as a biometric identity verification modality. The goal is to improve the speed of identification. We aim at using gene data that was initially used for autism detection to find if and how accurate is this data for identification applications. Mainly our goal is to find if our data preprocessing technique yields data useful as a biometric identification tool. We experiment with using the nearest neighbor classifier to identify subjects. Results show that optimal classification rate is achieved when the test set is corrupted by normally distributed noise with zero mean and standard deviation of 1. The classification rate is close to optimal at higher noise standard deviation reaching 3. This shows that the data can be used for identity verification with high accuracy using a simple classifier such as the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN). 

Keywords: biometrics, genetic data, identity verification, k nearest neighbor

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Authors: Aouiche Abdelaziz, Soudani Mouhamed Salah, Aouiche El Moundhe

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The present paper addresses the utilization of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy Inference Systems (FISs) for the identification and control of dynamical systems with some degree of uncertainty. Because ANNs and FISs have an inherent ability to approximate functions and to adapt to changes in input and parameters, they can be used to control systems too complex for linear controllers. In this work, we show how ANNs and FISs can be put in order to form nets that can learn from external data. In sequence, it is presented structures of inputs that can be used along with ANNs and FISs to model non-linear systems. Four systems were used to test the identification and control of the structures proposed. The results show the ANNs and FISs (Back Propagation Algorithm) used were efficient in modeling and controlling the non-linear plants.

Keywords: non-linear systems, fuzzy set Models, neural network, control law

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Authors: Yu Qin

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In order to tackle the ever-growing problem of the lack of parking space, this paper presents the design and implementation of a smart unmanned parking system that is based on RFID (radio frequency identification) technology and Wireless communication technology. This system uses RFID technology to achieve the identification function (transmitted by 2.4 G wireless module) and is equipped with an STM32L053 micro controller as the main control chip of the smart vehicle. This chip can accomplish automatic parking (in/out), charging and other functions. On this basis, it can also help users easily query the information that is stored in the database through the Internet. Experimental tests have shown that the system has the features of low power consumption and stable operation, among others. It can effectively improve the level of automation control of the parking lot management system and has enormous application prospects.

Keywords: RFID, embedded system, unmanned, parking management

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Authors: Yushuai Wang, Feng Xu, Junbo Tan, Xueqian Wang, Bin Liang

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In this paper, a sensor fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme using robust model predictive control (RMPC) and set theoretic fault detection and isolation (FDI) is extended to linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. First, a group of set-valued observers are designed for passive fault detection (FD) and the observer gains are obtained through minimizing the size of invariant set of state estimation-error dynamics. Second, an input set for fault isolation (FI) is designed offline through set theory for actively isolating faults after FD. Third, an RMPC controller based on state estimation for LPV systems is designed to control the system in the presence of disturbance and measurement noise and tolerate faults. Besides, an FTC algorithm is proposed to maintain the plant operate in the corresponding mode when the fault occurs. Finally, a numerical example is used to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Keywords: fault detection, linear parameter varying, model predictive control, set theory

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Authors: K. Tunde Olagunju, C. Scott Allen, Freek Van Der Meer

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Identification of hydrocarbon oil in remote sensing images is often the first step in monitoring oil during spill events. Most remote sensing methods adopt techniques for hydrocarbon identification to achieve detection in order to model an appropriate cleanup program. Identification on optical sensors does not only allow for detection but also for characterization and quantification. Until recently, in optical remote sensing, quantification and characterization are only potentially possible using high-resolution laboratory and airborne imaging spectrometers (hyperspectral data). Unlike multispectral, hyperspectral data are not freely available, as this data category is mainly obtained via airborne survey at present. In this research, two (2) operational high-resolution multispectral satellites (WorldView-3 and Sentinel-2) are theoretically assessed for their suitability for hydrocarbon characterization, using the hydrocarbon spectral slope model (HYSS). This method utilized the two most persistent hydrocarbon diagnostic/absorption features at 1.73 µm and 2.30 µm for hydrocarbon mapping on multispectral data. In this research, spectra measurement of seven (7) different hydrocarbon oils (crude and refined oil) taken on ten (10) different substrates with the use of laboratory ASD Fieldspec were convolved to Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 resolution, using their full width half maximum (FWHM) parameter. The resulting hydrocarbon slope values obtained from the studied samples enable clear qualitative discrimination of most hydrocarbons, despite the presence of different background substrates, particularly on WorldView-3. Due to close conformity of central wavelengths and narrow bandwidths to key hydrocarbon bands used in HYSS, the statistical significance for qualitative analysis on WorldView-3 sensors for all studied hydrocarbon oil returned with 95% confidence level (P-value ˂ 0.01), except for Diesel. Using multifactor analysis of variance (MANOVA), the discriminating power of HYSS is statistically significant for most hydrocarbon-substrate combinations on Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 FWHM, revealing the potential of these two operational multispectral sensors as rapid response tools for hydrocarbon mapping. One notable exception is highly transmissive hydrocarbons on Sentinel-2 data due to the non-conformity of spectral bands with key hydrocarbon absorptions and the relatively coarse bandwidth (> 100 nm).

Keywords: hydrocarbon, oil spill, remote sensing, hyperspectral, multispectral, hydrocarbon-substrate combination, Sentinel-2, WorldView-3

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Authors: Megha Gupta, Nupur Prakash

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Identification of plant diseases has been performed using machine learning and deep learning models on the datasets containing images of healthy and diseased plant leaves. The current study carries out an evaluation of some of the deep learning models based on convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures for identification of plant diseases. For this purpose, the publicly available New Plant Diseases Dataset, an augmented version of PlantVillage dataset, available on Kaggle platform, containing 87,900 images has been used. The dataset contained images of 26 diseases of 14 different plants and images of 12 healthy plants. The CNN models selected for the study presented in this paper are AlexNet, ZFNet, VGGNet (four models), GoogLeNet, and ResNet (three models). The selected models are trained using PyTorch, an open-source machine learning library, on Google Colaboratory. A comparative study has been carried out to analyze the high degree of accuracy achieved using these models. The highest test accuracy and F1-score of 99.59% and 0.996, respectively, were achieved by using GoogLeNet with Mini-batch momentum based gradient descent learning algorithm.

Keywords: comparative analysis, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, plant disease identification

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Authors: Juliana A. Knocikova

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Methods of nonlinear signal analysis are based on finding that random behavior can arise in deterministic nonlinear systems with a few degrees of freedom. Considering the dynamical systems, entropy is usually understood as a rate of information production. Changes in temporal dynamics of physiological data are indicating evolving of system in time, thus a level of new signal pattern generation. During last decades, many algorithms were introduced to assess some patterns of physiological responses to external stimulus. However, the reflex responses are usually characterized by short periods of time. This characteristic represents a great limitation for usual methods of nonlinear analysis. To solve the problems of short recordings, parameter of approximate entropy has been introduced as a measure of system complexity. Low value of this parameter is reflecting regularity and predictability in analyzed time series. On the other side, increasing of this parameter means unpredictability and a random behavior, hence a higher system complexity. Reduced neurophysiological data complexity has been observed repeatedly when analyzing electroneurogram and electromyogram activities during defence reflex responses. Quantitative phrenic neurogram changes are also obvious during severe hypoxia, as well as during airway reflex episodes. Concluding, the approximate entropy parameter serves as a convenient tool for analysis of reflex behavior characterized by short lasting time series.

Keywords: approximate entropy, neurophysiological data, nonlinear dynamics, reflex

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Suriya

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Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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Authors: Chih Hung Shih

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Eyewitness identification is one of the efficient information to identify suspects during criminal investigation. However eyewitness identification is improved frequently, inaccurate and plays vital roles in wrongful convictions. Most eyewitness misidentifications are made during police criminal investigation stage and then accepted by juries. Four failure investigation case studies in Taiwan are conduct to demonstrate how misidentifications are caused during the police investigation context. The result shows that there are several common grounds among these cases: (1) investigators lacked for knowledge about eyewitness memory so that they couldn’t evaluate the validity of the eyewitnesses’ accounts and identifications, (2) eyewitnesses were always asked to filter out several suspects during the investigation, and received investigation information which contaminated the eyewitnesses’ memory, (3) one to one live individual identifications were made in most of cases, (4) eyewitness identifications were always used to support the hypotheses of investigators, and exaggerated theirs powers when conform with the investigation lines, (5) the eyewitnesses’ confidence didn’t t reflect the validity of their identifications , but always influence the investigators’ beliefs for the identifications, (6) the investigators overestimated the power of the eyewitness identifications and ignore the inconsistency with other evidence. Recommendations have been proposed for future academic research and police practice of eyewitness identification in Taiwan.

Keywords: criminal investigation, eyewitness identification, investigative bias, investigative failures

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Authors: Fidel Lòpez Saca, Carlos Avilés-Cruz, Miguel Magos-Rivera, José Antonio Lara-Chávez

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Automated object recognition and identification systems are widely used throughout the world, particularly in assembly lines, where they perform quality control and automatic part selection tasks. This article presents the design and implementation of an object recognition system in an assembly line. The proposed shapes-color recognition system is based on deep learning theory in a specially designed convolutional network architecture. The used methodology involve stages such as: image capturing, color filtering, location of object mass centers, horizontal and vertical object boundaries, and object clipping. Once the objects are cut out, they are sent to a convolutional neural network, which automatically identifies the type of figure. The identification system works in real-time. The implementation was done on a Raspberry Pi 3 system and on a Jetson-Nano device. The proposal is used in an assembly course of bachelor’s degree in industrial engineering. The results presented include studying the efficiency of the recognition and processing time.

Keywords: deep-learning, image classification, image identification, industrial engineering.

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Authors: M. Chňapek, M. Tomka, R. Peroutková, Z. Gálová

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Processes of plant breeding, testing and licensing of new varieties, patent protection in seed production, relations in trade and protection of copyright are dependent on identification, differentiation and characterization of plant genotypes. Therefore, we focused our research on utilization of wheat storage proteins as genetic markers suitable not only for differentiation of individual genotypes, but also for identification and characterization of their considerable properties. We analyzed a collection of 102 genotypes of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), 41 genotypes of spelt wheat (Triticum spelta L.), and 35 genotypes of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.), in this study. Our results show, that genotypes of bread wheat and durum wheat were homogenous and single line, but spelt wheat genotypes were heterogenous. We observed variability of HMW-GS composition according to environmental factors and level of breeding and predict technological quality on the basis of Glu-score calculation.

Keywords: genotype identification, HMW-GS, wheat quality, polymorphism

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Authors: Roslinda Nazar, Ezad Hafidz Hafidzuddin, Norihan M. Arifin, Ioan Pop

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In this paper, the problem of steady laminar boundary layer flow and heat transfer over a permeable exponentially stretching/shrinking sheet with generalized slip velocity is considered. The similarity transformations are used to transform the governing nonlinear partial differential equations to a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The transformed equations are then solved numerically using the bvp4c function in MATLAB. Dual solutions are found for a certain range of the suction and stretching/shrinking parameters. The effects of the suction parameter, stretching/shrinking parameter, velocity slip parameter, critical shear rate, and Prandtl number on the skin friction and heat transfer coefficients as well as the velocity and temperature profiles are presented and discussed.

Keywords: boundary layer, exponentially stretching/shrinking sheet, generalized slip, heat transfer, numerical solutions

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Mohamed A. El-Iskandarani, Guitar M. Shawkat

Abstract:

Nowadays, the amount of available multimedia data is continuously on the rise. The need to find a required image for an ordinary user is a challenging task. Content based image retrieval (CBIR) computes relevance based on the visual similarity of low-level image features such as color, textures, etc. However, there is a gap between low-level visual features and semantic meanings required by applications. The typical method of bridging the semantic gap is through the automatic image annotation (AIA) that extracts semantic features using machine learning techniques. In this paper, a multi-label image annotation system guided by Firefly and Bayesian method is proposed. Firstly, images are segmented using the maximum variance intra cluster and Firefly algorithm, which is a swarm-based approach with high convergence speed, less computation rate and search for the optimal multiple threshold. Feature extraction techniques based on color features and region properties are applied to obtain the representative features. After that, the images are annotated using translation model based on the Net Bayes system, which is efficient for multi-label learning with high precision and less complexity. Experiments are performed using Corel Database. The results show that the proposed system is better than traditional ones for automatic image annotation and retrieval.

Keywords: feature extraction, feature selection, image annotation, classification

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Authors: Sergey Sorokin, Irina Sorokina, Alexander Yazenin

Abstract:

We present a solution to the Maxmin u/E parameters estimation problem of possibility distributions in m-dimensional case. Our method is based on geometrical approach, where minimal area enclosing ellipsoid is constructed around the sample. Also we demonstrate that one can improve results of well-known algorithms in fuzzy model identification task using Maxmin u/E parameters estimation.

Keywords: possibility distribution, parameters estimation, Maxmin u\E estimator, fuzzy model identification

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Authors: Jiahui Yang, John Quigley, Lesley Walls

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors develop a stochastic model regarding the investment in supplier delivery performance development from a buyer’s perspective. The authors propose a multivariate model through a Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution within an Empirical Bayesian inference framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in deliveries. A closed form solution is obtained and the lower and upper bound for both optimal investment level and expected profit under uncertainty are derived. The theoretical properties provide decision makers with useful insights regarding supplier delivery performance improvement problems where multiple delivery statuses are involved. The authors also extend the model from a single supplier investment into a supplier portfolio, using a Lagrangian method to obtain a theoretical expression for an optimal investment level and overall expected profit. The model enables a buyer to know how the marginal expected profit/investment level of each supplier changes with respect to the budget and which supplier should be invested in when additional budget is available. An application of this model is illustrated in a simulation study. Overall, the main contribution of this study is to provide an optimal investment decision making framework for supplier development, taking into account multiple delivery statuses as well as multiple projects.

Keywords: decision making, empirical bayesian, portfolio optimization, supplier development, supply chain management

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Authors: Jack R. McKenzie, Peter A. Appleby, Thomas House, Neil Walton

Abstract:

Cold-start is a notoriously difficult problem which can occur in recommendation systems, and arises when there is insufficient information to draw inferences for users or items. To address this challenge, a contextual bandit algorithm – the Fast Approximate Bayesian Contextual Cold Start Learning algorithm (FAB-COST) – is proposed, which is designed to provide improved accuracy compared to the traditionally used Laplace approximation in the logistic contextual bandit, while controlling both algorithmic complexity and computational cost. To this end, FAB-COST uses a combination of two moment projection variational methods: Expectation Propagation (EP), which performs well at the cold start, but becomes slow as the amount of data increases; and Assumed Density Filtering (ADF), which has slower growth of computational cost with data size but requires more data to obtain an acceptable level of accuracy. By switching from EP to ADF when the dataset becomes large, it is able to exploit their complementary strengths. The empirical justification for FAB-COST is presented, and systematically compared to other approaches on simulated data. In a benchmark against the Laplace approximation on real data consisting of over 670, 000 impressions from autotrader.co.uk, FAB-COST demonstrates at one point increase of over 16% in user clicks. On the basis of these results, it is argued that FAB-COST is likely to be an attractive approach to cold-start recommendation systems in a variety of contexts.

Keywords: cold-start learning, expectation propagation, multi-armed bandits, Thompson Sampling, variational inference

Procedia PDF Downloads 85