Search results for: accident assessment model

Authors: A. Bachrata, N. Marie, F. Bertrand, J. B. Droin

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The in-depth understanding of severe accident propagation in Generation IV of nuclear reactors is important so that appropriate risk management can be undertaken early in their design process. This paper is focused on model improvements in the SIMMER code in order to perform studies of severe accident mitigation of Sodium Fast Reactor. During the design process of the mitigation devices dedicated to extraction of molten fuel from the core region, the molten fuel propagation from the core up to the core catcher has to be studied. In this aim, analytical as well as the complex thermo-hydraulic simulations with SIMMER-III code are performed. The studies presented in this paper focus on physical phenomena and associated physical models that influence the corium relocation. Firstly, the molten pool heat exchange with surrounding structures is analysed since it influences directly the instant of rupture of the dedicated tubes favouring the corium relocation for mitigation purpose. After the corium penetration into mitigation tubes, the fuel-coolant interactions result in formation of debris bed. Analyses of debris bed fluidization as well as sinking into a fluid are presented in this paper.

Keywords: corium, mitigation tubes, SIMMER-III, sodium fast reactor

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Shaikh, Weiguo Song, Rehmat Karim, Muhammad Kashan Surahio, Muhammad Usman Shahid

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Fire investigations face challenges due to the complexity of fire development, and real-world accidents lack repeatability, making it difficult to apply standardized approaches. The unpredictable nature of fires and the unique conditions of each incident contribute to the complexity, requiring innovative methods and tools for effective analysis and reconstruction. This study proposes to provide the modern accident analysis model through numerical reconstruction for fire investigation in textile buildings. This method employs computer simulation to enhance the overall effectiveness of textile-building investigations. The materials and evidence collected from past incidents reconstruct fire occurrences, progressions, and catastrophic processes. The approach is demonstrated through a case study involving a tragic textile factory fire in Karachi, Pakistan, which claimed 257 lives. The reconstruction method proves invaluable for determining fire origins, assessing losses, establishing accountability, and, significantly, providing preventive insights for complex fire incidents.

Keywords: fire investigation, numerical simulation, fire safety, fire incident, textile building

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Authors: J. J. M. Trienekens, H. L. Romero, L. Cuenca

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While process harmonization is increasingly mentioned and unanimously associated with several benefits, there is a need for more understanding of how it contributes to business process redesign and improvement. This paper presents the application, in an industrial case study, of a conceptual harmonization model on the relationship between drivers and effects of process harmonization. The drivers are called contextual factors which influence harmonization. Assessment of these contextual factors in a particular business domain, clarifies the extent of harmonization that can be achieved, or that should be strived at. The case study shows how the conceptual harmonization model can be made operational and can act as a valuable assessment tool. From both qualitative, as well as some quantitative, assessment results, insights are being discussed on the extent of harmonization that can be achieved, and action plans are being defined for business (process) harmonization.

Keywords: case study, contextual factors, process harmonization, industrial company

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Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s System. Naturally exchange patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s System. The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA- safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and ruler areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is also predicted the distribution schemes from the perspective of pollutants that considered multiple factors of multi-criteria analysis. The data extends input–output analysis to evaluate the spillover effect, and conducted Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the biosphere and collective a composite index of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in artistic/ architectural perspective. The hypothesis is an attempt to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure for development urban environments using optimization software and applied as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology as optimization approach of systems ecology.

Keywords: spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology

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Authors: Osamu Komori, Shinto Eguchi, Hiroshi Okamura, Momoko Ichinokawa

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The long time-series data on population assessments are essential for global ecosystem assessment because the temporal change of biomass in such a database reflects the status of global ecosystem properly. However, the available assessment data usually have limited sample sizes and the ratio of populations with low abundance of biomass (collapsed) to those with high abundance (non-collapsed) is highly imbalanced. To allow for the imbalance and uncertainty involved in the ecological data, we propose a binary regression model with mixed effects for inferring ecosystem status through an asymmetric logistic model. In the estimation equation, we observe that the weights for the non-collapsed populations are relatively reduced, which in turn puts more importance on the small number of observations of collapsed populations. Moreover, we extend the asymmetric logistic regression model using propensity score to allow for the sample biases observed in the labeled and unlabeled datasets. It robustified the estimation procedure and improved the model fitting.

Keywords: double robust estimation, ecological binary data, mixed effect logistic regression model, propensity score

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Authors: Pranab Kumar Goswami, Elena Gurung

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Small and medium enterprises (SME) are considered as the driving force for the economic growth of a developing country like India. Most of the SMEs are located in residential/non-industrial areas to avoid legal obligations of occupational safety and health (OSH) provisions. This study was conducted in Delhiwith a view to analyze the accidents that occurredduringthe year 2019 & 2020. The objective of the study was to find out the accident prone SMEs in Delhi and major causes of such accidents. Methods: Survey and comprehensive data analysis methods, followed by applying simple statistical techniques, were used for this study. The accident reports for the study period collected from the labour department and police stations were analyzed for the study. The injured workers were interviewed to ascertain safety compliances, training and awareness programs, etc. The study was completed in March2021. Results: It was found that most of the accidents took place in SMEs located in residential/non- industrial areas in Delhi. The accident-prone machines were found to be power presses (42%) and injection moulding machines (37%). Predominantly unsafe machinery or unsafe working conditions and lack of training of worker were observed to be the major causes of accidents in such industries. Conclusions: It was concluded from the study that unsafe machinery/equipment and lack of proper training to the workers were two main reasons for increase in accidents.It was also concluded that the industries located in industrial areas were better placed in terms of workplace compliances. The managements who were running their operations from residential/non-industrial areaswere found to be less aware on health and safety issues. Lack of enforcement by government agencies in such areas has escalated this problem. Adequate training to workers, managing safe & healthy workplace, and sustained enforcement can reduce accidents in such industries.

Keywords: SME, accident prevention, cause of accident, unorganised

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Authors: Mohammed Seid, Aklilu Azazh, Fikre Enquselassie, Engida Yisma

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Background: Road traffic injuries are the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death for young people. More than a million people die each year on the world’s roads, and the risk of dying as a result of a road traffic injury is highest in the Africa. Methods: A prospective hospital-based study was undertaken to assess injury characteristics and outcome of road traffic accident among victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to gather the required data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Results: A total of 230 road traffic accident victims were studied. The majority of the study subjects were men 165 (71.7%) and the male/female ratio was 2.6:1. The victims’ ages ranged from 14 to 80 years with the mean and standard deviations of 32.15 and ± 14.38 years respectively. Daily laborers (95 (41.3%)) and students (28 (12.2%)) were the majority of road traffic accident victims. Long-distance travelling Minibus (16.5%) was responsible for the majority of road traffic crash followed by followed by Taxi (14.8%) and pedestrians (62.6%) accounted for the majority of road traffic accident. Head (50.4%) and musculoskeletal (extremities) (47.0%) were the most common body region injured. Fractures (78.0%) and open wounds (56.5%) were the most common type of injuries sustained. Treatment of fracture was the most common procedure performed in 57.7 % of the victims. The overall length of hospital stay (LOS) ranged from 1 day to 61 days with mean (± standard deviation) of 7.12 ± 10.5 days and the mortality rate was 7.4 %. A significant higher proportion of victims aged 14-55 years were had less likelihood of death compared to those victims aged more than 55 years of age [Adjusted OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.82)]. Conclusions: This study showed diverse injury characteristics and high morbidity and mortality among the victims attending Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The findings reflect that road traffic accident is a major public health problem. Urgent road traffic accident preventive measures and prompt treatment of the victims are warranted in order to reduce morbidity and mortality among the victims.

Keywords: road traffic accident, injury characteristics, outcome, Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Authors: Golshid Gilani, Albert De La Fuente, Ana Blanco

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Sustainability assessment of new and existing buildings has generated a growing interest due to the evident environmental, social and economic impacts during their construction and service life. Façades, as one of the most important exterior elements of a building, may contribute to the building sustainability by reducing the amount of energy consumption and providing thermal comfort for the inhabitants, thus minimizing the environmental impact on both the building and on the environment. Various methods have been used for the sustainability assessment of buildings due to the importance of this issue. However, most of the existing methods mainly concentrate on environmental and economic aspects, disregarding the third pillar of sustainability, which is the social aspect. Besides, there is a little focus on comprehensive sustainability assessment of facades, as an important element of a building. This confirms the need of developing methods for assessing the sustainable performance of building façades as an important step in achieving building sustainability. In this respect, this paper aims at presenting a model for assessing the global sustainability of façade systems. for that purpose, the Integrated Value Model for Sustainable Assessment (MIVES), a Multi-Criteria Decision Making model that integrates the main sustainability requirements (economic, environmental and social) and includes the concept of value functions, used as an assessment tool.

Keywords: façade, MCDM, MIVES, sustainability

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: Eftah Bte. Moh Hj Abdullah, Izazol Binti Idris, Abd Aziz Bin Abd Shukor

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This study aims to identify the understanding expectations of school administrators concerning school assessment. The researcher utilized a qualitative descriptive study on 19 administrators from three secondary schools in the North Kinta district. The respondents had been interviewed on their understanding expectations of school assessment using the focus group discussion method. Overall findings showed that the administrators’ understanding expectations of school assessment was weak; especially in terms of content focus, articulation across age and grade, transparency and fairness, as well as the pedagogical implications. Findings from interviews indicated that administrators explained their understanding expectations of school assessment from the aspect of school management, and not from the aspect of instructional leadership or specifically as assessment leaders. The study implications from the administrators’ understanding expectations may hint at the difficulty of the administrators to function as assessment leaders, in order to reduce their focus as manager, and move towards their primary role in the process of teaching and learning. The administrator, as assessment leaders, would be able to reach assessment goals via collaboration in identifying and listing teacher assessment competencies, how to construct assessment capacity, how to interpret assessment correctly, the use of assessment and how to use assessment information to communicate confidently and effectively to the public.

Keywords: assessment leaders, assessment goals, instructional leadership, understanding expectation of assessment

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Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki, Danuta Szwajca

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The growing importance of reputation in building enterprise value and achieving long-term competitive advantage creates the need for its measurement and evaluation for the management purposes (effective reputation and its risk management). The paper presents practical application of self-developed corporate reputation assessment model from the viewpoint of stock market investors. The model has a pioneer character and example analysis performed for selected industry is a form of specific test for this tool. In the proposed solution, three aspects - informational, financial and development, as well as social ones - were considered. It was also assumed that the individual sub-criteria will be based on public sources of information, and as the calculation apparatus, capable of obtaining synthetic final assessment, fuzzy logic will be used. The main reason for developing this model was to fulfill the gap in the scope of synthetic measure of corporate reputation that would provide higher degree of objectivity by relying on "hard" (not from surveys) and publicly available data. It should be also noted that results obtained on the basis of proposed corporate reputation assessment method give possibilities of various internal as well as inter-branch comparisons and analysis of corporate reputation impact.

Keywords: corporate reputation, fuzzy logic, fuzzy model, stock market investors

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Authors: Xianping Du, Runlu Miao, Guanjun Zhang, Libo Cao, Feng Zhu

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Current vehicle safety standards and human body injury criteria were established based on the biomechanical response of Euro-American human body, without considering the difference in the body anthropometry and injury characteristics among different races, particularly the East Asian people with smaller body size. Absence of such race specific design considerations will negatively influence the protective performance of safety products for these populations, and weaken the accuracy of injury thresholds derived. To resolve these issues, in this study, we aim to develop a race specific finite element model to simulate the impact response of the lower extremity of a 50th percentile East Asian (Chinese) male. The model was built based on medical images for the leg of an average size Chinese male and slightly adjusted based on the statistical data. The model includes detailed anatomic features and is able to simulate the muscle active force. Thirteen biomechanical tests available in the literature were used to validate its biofidelity. Using the validated model, a pedestrian-car impact accident taking place in China was re-constructed computationally. The results show that the newly developed lower leg model has a good performance in predicting dynamic response and tibia fracture pattern. An additional comparison on the fracture tolerance of the East Asian and Euro-American lower limb suggests that the current injury criterion underestimates the degree of injury of East Asian human body.

Keywords: lower limb, East Asian body characteristics, traffic accident reconstruction, finite element analysis, injury tolerance

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Authors: Ruangdech Sirikit

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The purposes of this research were to study the variables affecting the quality assessment of mathematics subject in Thailand by using value-added analysis on TIMSS 2011. The data used in this research is the secondary data from the 2011 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), collected from 6,124 students in 172 schools from Thailand, studying only mathematics subjects. The data were based on 14 assessment tests of knowledge in mathematics. There were 3 steps of data analysis: 1) To analyze descriptive statistics 2) To estimate competency of students from the assessment of their mathematics proficiency by using MULTILOG program; 3) analyze value added in the model of quality assessment using Value-Added Model with Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) and 2 levels of analysis. The research results were as follows: 1. Student level variables that had significant effects on the competency of students at .01 levels were Parental care, Resources at home, Enjoyment of learning mathematics and Extrinsic motivation in learning mathematics. Variable that had significant effects on the competency of students at .05 levels were Education of parents and self-confident in learning mathematics. 2. School level variable that had significant effects on competency of students at .01 levels was Extra large school. Variable that had significant effects on competency of students at .05 levels was medium school.

Keywords: quality assessment, value-added model, TIMSS, mathematics, Thailand

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: Sujit K. Basak

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The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of literature review software on researchers. The aim of this study was achieved by analyzing models in terms of perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and acceptance level. Collected data was analyzed using WarpPLS 4.0 software. This study used two theoretical frameworks namely Technology Acceptance Model and the Training Needs Assessment Model. The study was experimental and was conducted at a public university in South Africa. The results of the study showed that acceptance level has a high impact on research workload and productivity followed by perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use.

Keywords: technology acceptance model, training needs assessment model, literature review software, research productivity

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Authors: Antoaneta Stefanova, Rositsa Gencheva, Pavlin Groudev

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This paper presents an application of the ASTEC V2r3p3 computer code for simulation of QUENCH-12 experiment. The test has been performed to investigate the behavior of VVER type of fuel assemblies during severe accident conditions. In the performed analyses it has been assessed the mass of generated hydrogen during the experiment flooding of overheated core. The comparison of ASTECv2r3p3 calculated results with measured test data shows good agreement.

Keywords: hydrogen production, VVER, QUENCH facility, severe accident, reactor core

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Authors: A. B. M. Aftabuzzaman, Md. Mahin Hossain, Md. Ifran Sharif Imthi, Md. Razu Ahmed, A. Z. M. Imran

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The goals of the study are to develop a safety system that is combined with a smart helmet to reduce the likelihood of two-wheeler bike accidents and cases of drunk driving. The smart helmet and the limit switch both verify when a biker is wearing a helmet. The presence of alcohol in the rider's breath is detected using alcohol sensors. The bike remains turned off if the rider is not wearing a helmet or if the rider's breath contains alcohol. The bike will not start until the rider is wearing a helmet and there is no alcoholic substance present, indicating that the bike rider has not consumed alcohol. When the rider faces in an accident, instantly the smart helmet hits the ground and respective sensors detect the movement and tilt of the protective helmet and instantly sending the information about the location of accident to the rider's relatives and the crisis contact numbers which are introduced in the smart helmet respective device. So this project finding will ensure safe bike journey and improve safe commercial bike services in Bangladesh.

Keywords: smart helmet, GSM, GPS, bike, biker accident

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Authors: Gizem Kodak

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The Strait of Çanakkale, together with the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, form the Turkish Straits System. In other words, the Strait of Çanakkale is the southern gate of the system that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries of the world. Due to the heavy maritime traffic, it is important to scientifically examine the accident characteristics in the region. In particular, the results indicated by the descriptive statistics are of critical importance in order to strengthen the safety of navigation. At this point, exploratory data analysis offers strategic outputs in terms of defining the problem and knowing the strengths and weaknesses against possible accident risk. The study aims to determine the accident characteristics in the Strait of Çanakkale with temporal and spatial analysis of historical data, using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) as the research method. The study's results will reveal the general characteristics of maritime accidents in the region and form the infrastructure for future studies. Therefore, the text provides a clear description of the research goals and methodology, and the study's contributions are well-defined.

Keywords: maritime accidents, EDA, Strait of Çanakkale, navigational safety

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Authors: J. Tamosaitiene

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The article focuses on the identification and classification of key risk management criteria that represent the most important sustainability aspects of the construction industry. The construction sector is one of the most important sectors in Lithuania. Nowadays, the assessment of the risk level of a construction project is especially important for the quality of construction projects, the growth of enterprises and the sector. To establish the most important criteria for successful growth of the sector, a questionnaire for experts was developed. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the expert judgement method and other multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods were used to develop the hybrid model. The results were used to develop an integrated knowledge system for the measurement of a risk level particular to construction projects. The article presents a practical case that details the developed system, sustainable aspects, and risk assessment.

Keywords: risk, system, model, construction

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Authors: Go Bong Choi, Shin Je Lee, Sung Jin Yoo, Gibaek Lee, Jong Min Lee

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In South Korea, it is difficult to obtain data for statistical pipe assessment. In this paper, to address these issues, we find that various statistical model presented before is how data mixed with noise and are whether apply in South Korea. Three major type of model is studied and if data is presented in the paper, we add noise to data, which affects how model response changes. Moreover, we generate data from model in paper and analyse effect of noise. From this we can find robustness and applicability in Korea of each model.

Keywords: proportional hazard model, survival model, water main deterioration, ecological sciences

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Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Samuel Emeka Anarah, Kingsley Nnaemeka Ogbu, Obasi Arinze

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Quantifying the hydrological response due to changes in climate change is imperative for proper management of water resources within a watershed. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Ebony River (UER) watershed, South East Nigeria, was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. A climatological time series analysis from 1985 - 2014 using non-parametric test showed significant negative trends in precipitation and relative humidity trend while minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and wind speed showed significant positive trends. Future hypothetical land-use change scenarios (Scenarios 1, 2, 3 and 4) representing urbanization and conversion of forest to agricultural land were combined with future downscaled climate model (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0) and simulated in SWAT model. Relative to the Baseline scenario (2005 - 2014), the results showed a decrease in streamflow by 10.29%, 26.20%, 11.80% and 26.72% for Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Model results suggest development of adaptation strategies to cope with the predicted hydrological conditions under future climate change in the watershed.

Keywords: climate change, hydrology, runoff, SWAT model

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Authors: M. Alsharqawi, T. Zayed, S. Abu Dabous

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To ensure safety and serviceability of bridge infrastructure, accurate condition assessment and rating methods are needed to provide basis for bridge Maintenance, Repair and Replacement (MRR) decisions. In North America, the common practices to assess condition of bridges are through visual inspection. These practices are limited to detect surface defects and external flaws. Further, the thresholds that define the severity of bridge deterioration are selected arbitrarily. The current research discusses the main deteriorations and defects identified during visual inspection and Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE). NDE techniques are becoming popular in augmenting the visual examination during inspection to detect subsurface defects. Quality inspection data and accurate condition assessment and rating are the basis for determining appropriate MRR decisions. Thus, in this paper, a novel method for bridge condition assessment using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) theory is utilized. The QFD model is designed to provide an integrated condition by evaluating both the surface and subsurface defects for concrete bridges. Moreover, an integrated condition rating index with four thresholds is developed based on the QFD condition assessment model and using K-means clustering technique. Twenty case studies are analyzed by applying the QFD model and implementing the developed rating index. The results from the analyzed case studies show that the proposed threshold model produces robust MRR recommendations consistent with decisions and recommendations made by bridge managers on these projects. The proposed method is expected to advance the state of the art of bridges condition assessment and rating.

Keywords: concrete bridge decks, condition assessment and rating, quality function deployment, k-means clustering technique

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Authors: H. Jalahi, A. Yazdanpanah Nozari

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Background and Purpose: Assessment of learners’ performance is an important factors in teaching-learning process. When a factor is sensitive and has high influence on life, their assessment should be done precisely. Thinking dispositions are very important factors in medical education because of its specific condition. In this study a model is designed for fostering thinking dispositions of learners in which authentic assessment is an important element. Materials and Methods: Objective based research is developmental, and such a model was not designed for curricula. Data collection and comparing approaches about assessment and analyzing current assessments offered applied proposals. Results: Based on research findings, the current assessments are response-based, that is students instead of product of response, only offers the specific response which the teachers expects; but authentic assessment is a form of assessment in which students are asked to perform real-word tasks that demonstrate meaningful application of essential knowledge and skills. Conclusion: Because of the difficulties and unexpected problems in life and individuals needs to lifelong learning and conditions in medical course that require decision making in specific times, we must pay attention to reach thinking dispositions and it should be included in curriculum. Authentic assessment as an important aspect of curriculum can help fostering thinking dispositions of learners. Using this kind of assessments which focus on application of information and skills to solve real-word tasks have more important role in medical courses.

Keywords: assessment, authentic, medical courses, developmental

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Authors: Kisik Song, Sungjoo Lee

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Recent years have seen an increasing number of patent disputes due to excessive competition in the global market and a reduced technology life-cycle; this has increased the risk of investment in technology development. While many global companies have started developing a methodology to identify promising technologies and assess for decisions, the existing methodology still has some limitations. Post hoc assessments of the new technology are not being performed, especially to determine whether the suggested technologies turned out to be promising. For example, in existing quantitative patent analysis, a patent’s citation information has served as an important metric for quality assessment, but this analysis cannot be applied to recently registered patents because such information accumulates over time. Therefore, we propose a new technology assessment model that can replace citation information and positively affect technological development based on post hoc analysis of the patents for promising technologies. Additionally, we collect customer reviews on a target technology to extract keywords that show the customers’ needs, and we determine how many keywords are covered in the new technology. Finally, we construct a portfolio (based on a technology assessment from patent information) and a customer-based marketability assessment (based on review data), and we use them to visualize the characteristics of the new technologies.

Keywords: technology assessment, patents, citation information, opinion mining

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Authors: Abdolghader Pourali, Mohammad V. Malakooti, Muhammad Hussein Yektaie

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A mobile payment system in mobile e-commerce generally have high security so that the user can trust it for doing business deals, sales, paying financial transactions, etc. in the mobile payment system. Since an architecture or payment model in e-commerce only shows the way of interaction and collaboration among users and mortgagers and does not present any evaluation of effectiveness and confidence about financial transactions to stakeholders. In this paper, we try to present a detailed assessment of the reliability of a mobile payment model in the mobile e-commerce using formal models and colored Petri nets. Finally, we demonstrate that the reliability of this system has high value (case study: a secure payment model in mobile commerce.

Keywords: reliability, colored Petri net, assessment, payment models, m-commerce

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Authors: Azin Shakibabarough, Mojtaba Valinejadshoubi, Ashutosh Bagchi

Abstract:

Catastrophic bridge failure happens due to the lack of inspection, lack of design and extreme events like flooding, an earthquake. Bridge Management System (BMS) is utilized to diminish such an accident with proper design and frequent inspection. Visual inspection cannot detect any subsurface defects, so using Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) techniques remove these barriers as far as possible. Among all NDE techniques, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) has been proved as a highly effective device for detecting internal defects in a reinforced concrete bridge deck. GPR is used for detecting rebar location and rebar corrosion in the reinforced concrete deck. GPR profile is composed of hyperbola series in which sound hyperbola denotes sound rebar and blur hyperbola or signal attenuation shows corroded rebar. Interpretation of GPR images is implemented by numerical analysis or visualization. Researchers recently found that interpretation through visualization is more precise than interpretation through numerical analysis, but visualization is time-consuming and a highly subjective process. Automating the interpretation of GPR image through visualization can solve these problems. After interpretation of all scans of a bridge, condition assessment is conducted based on the generated corrosion map. However, this such a condition assessment is not objective and precise. Condition assessment based on structural integrity and strength parameters can make it more objective and precise. The main purpose of this study is to present an automated interpretation method of a reinforced concrete bridge deck through a visualization technique. In the end, the combined analysis of the structural condition in a bridge is implemented.

Keywords: bridge condition assessment, ground penetrating radar, GPR, NDE techniques, visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Ghulam Haider Haidaree, Nsenda Lukumwena

Abstract:

Today the world of research enjoys abundant data, available in virtually any field, technology, science, and business, politics, etc. This is commonly referred to as big data. This offers a great deal of precision and accuracy, supportive of an in-depth look at any decision-making process. When and if well used, Big Data affords its users with the opportunity to produce substantially well supported and good results. This paper leans extensively on big data to investigate possible smart solutions to urban mobility and related issues, namely road traffic accidents, its casualties, and fatalities based on multiple factors, including age, gender, location occurrences of accidents, etc. Multiple technologies were used in combination to produce an Information Communication Technology (ICT) based solution with embedded technology. Those technologies include principally Geographic Information System (GIS), Orange Data Mining Software, Bayesian Statistics, to name a few. The study uses the Leeds accident 2016 to illustrate the thinking process and extracts thereof a model that can be tested, evaluated, and replicated. The authors optimistically believe that the proposed model will significantly and smartly help to flatten the curve of road traffic accidents in the fast-growing population densities, which increases considerably motor-based mobility.

Keywords: accident factors, geographic information system, information communication technology, mobility

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Arash Yousefi

Abstract:

Experts suggest that relying exclusively on parameters to convey a situation or establish a condition may not be adequate. Assessing and appraising incidents in a system based on accident parameters, such as accident frequency, lost workdays, or fatalities, may not always be precise and occasionally erroneous. The frequency rate of accidents is a metric that assesses the correlation between the number of accidents causing work-time loss due to injuries and the total working hours of personnel over a year. Traditionally, this has been calculated based on one million working hours, but the American Occupational Safety and Health Organization has updated its standards. The new coefficient of 200/000 working hours is now used to compute the frequency rate of accidents. It's crucial to ensure that the total working hours of employees are equally represented when calculating individual event and incident numbers. The accident severity rate is a metric used to determine the amount of time lost or wasted during a given period, often a year, in relation to the total number of working hours. It measures the percentage of work hours lost or wasted compared to the total number of useful working hours, which provides valuable insight into the number of days lost or wasted due to work-related incidents for each working hour. Calculating the severity of an incident can be difficult if a worker suffers permanent disability or death. To determine lost days, coefficients specified in the "tables of days equivalent to OSHA or ANSI standards" for disabling injuries are used. The accident frequency coefficient denotes the rate at which accidents occur, while the accident severity coefficient specifies the extent of damage and injury caused by these accidents. These coefficients are crucial in accurately assessing the magnitude and impact of accidents.

Keywords: incidents, safety, analysis, frequency, severity, injuries, determine

Procedia PDF Downloads 57