Search results for: Markov chain Monte Carlo

Authors: Alexandru George Vaduva, Adriana Vlad, Bogdan Badea

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In this research, we conduct a Monte Carlo analysis on a two-dimensional χ2 test, which is used to determine the minimum distance required for independent sampling in the context of chaotic signals. We investigate the impact of transforming initial data sets from any probability distribution to new signals with a uniform distribution using the Spearman rank correlation on the χ2 test. This transformation removes the randomness of the data pairs, and as a result, the observed distribution of χ2 test values differs from the expected distribution. We propose a solution to this problem and evaluate it using another chaotic signal.

Keywords: chaotic signals, logistic map, Pearson’s test, Chi Square test, bivariate distribution, statistical independence

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Authors: Milos Travar, Jovana Nikolov, Andrej Vranicar, Natasa Todorovic

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Over the years, High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors proved to be an excellent practical tool and, as such, have established their today's wide use in low background γ-spectrometry. One of the advantages of gamma-ray spectrometry is its easy sample preparation as chemical processing and separation of the studied subject are not required. Thus, with a single measurement, one can simultaneously perform both qualitative and quantitative analysis. One of the most prominent features of HPGe detectors, besides their excellent efficiency, is their superior resolution. This feature virtually allows a researcher to perform a thorough analysis by discriminating photons of similar energies in the studied spectra where otherwise they would superimpose within a single-energy peak and, as such, could potentially scathe analysis and produce wrongly assessed results. Naturally, this feature is of great importance when the identification of radionuclides, as well as their activity concentrations, is being practiced where high precision comes as a necessity. In measurements of this nature, in order to be able to reproduce good and trustworthy results, one has to have initially performed an adequate full-energy peak (FEP) efficiency calibration of the used equipment. However, experimental determination of the response, i.e., efficiency curves for a given detector-sample configuration and its geometry, is not always easy and requires a certain set of reference calibration sources in order to account for and cover broader energy ranges of interest. With the goal of overcoming these difficulties, a lot of researches turned towards the application of different software toolkits that implement the Monte Carlo method (e.g., MCNP, FLUKA, PENELOPE, Geant4, etc.), as it has proven time and time again to be a very powerful tool. In the process of creating a reliable model, one has to have well-established and described specifications of the detector. Unfortunately, the documentation that manufacturers provide alongside the equipment is rarely sufficient enough for this purpose. Furthermore, certain parameters tend to evolve and change over time, especially with older equipment. Deterioration of these parameters consequently decreases the active volume of the crystal and can thus affect the efficiencies by a large margin if they are not properly taken into account. In this study, the optimisation method of two HPGe detectors through the implementation of the Geant4 toolkit developed by CERN is described, with the goal of further improving simulation accuracy in calculations of FEP efficiencies by investigating the influence of certain detector variables (e.g., crystal-to-window distance, dead layer thicknesses, inner crystal’s void dimensions, etc.). Detectors on which the optimisation procedures were carried out were a standard traditional co-axial extended range detector (XtRa HPGe, CANBERRA) and a broad energy range planar detector (BEGe, CANBERRA). Optimised models were verified through comparison with experimentally obtained data from measurements of a set of point-like radioactive sources. Acquired results of both detectors displayed good agreement with experimental data that falls under an average statistical uncertainty of ∼ 4.6% for XtRa and ∼ 1.8% for BEGe detector within the energy range of 59.4−1836.1 [keV] and 59.4−1212.9 [keV], respectively.

Keywords: HPGe detector, γ spectrometry, efficiency, Geant4 simulation, Monte Carlo method

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Authors: Chitaranjan Sharma

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The present paper deals with the analysis of a fuel supply system in an automobile engine of a four wheeler which is having both the option of fuel i.e. PETROL and CNG. Since CNG is cheaper than petrol so the priority is given to consume CNG as compared to petrol. An automatic switch is used to start petrol supply at the time of failure of CNG supply. Using regenerative point technique with Markov renewal process, the reliability characteristics which are useful to system designers are obtained.

Keywords: reliability, redundancy, repair time, transition, probability, regenerative points, markov renewal, process

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Authors: Veerpaul Maan, Gaurav Mishra

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The evolution of omnichannel has revolutionized the supply chain of the organizations by enhancing customer shopping experience. For these organizations need to develop well-integrated multiple distribution channels to leverage the benefits of omnichannel. To adopt an omnichannel system in the supply chain has resulted in structuring and reconfiguring the practices of the traditional supply chain distribution network. In this paper a multiple distribution supply chain network (MDSCN) have been proposed which integrates online giants with a local retailers distribution network in uncertain environment followed by sustainability. To incorporate sustainability, an additional objective function is added to reduce the carbon content through minimizing the travel distance of the product. Through this proposed model, customers are free to access product and services as per their choice of channels which increases their convenience, reach and satisfaction. Further, a numerical illustration is being shown along with interpretation of results to validate the proposed model.

Keywords: sustainable supply chain network, omnichannel, multiple distribution supply chain network, integrate multiple distribution channels

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Authors: Emilio A. Berny-Brandt, Sonia E. Ruiz

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Steel tubular towers serving as support structures for large wind turbines are subject to several hundred million stress cycles arising from the turbulent nature of the wind. This causes high-cycle fatigue which can govern tower design. The practice of maintaining the support structure after wind turbines reach its typical 20-year design life have become common, but without quantifying the changes in the reliability on the tower. There are several studies on this topic, but most of them are based on the S-N curve approach using the Miner’s rule damage summation method, the de-facto standard in the wind industry. However, the qualitative nature of Miner’s method makes desirable the use of fracture mechanics to measure the effects of fatigue in the capacity curve of the structure, which is important in order to evaluate the integrity and reliability of these towers. Temporal and spatially varying wind speed time histories are simulated based on power spectral density and coherence functions. Simulations are then applied to a SAP2000 finite element model and step-by-step analysis is used to obtain the stress time histories for a range of representative wind speeds expected during service conditions of the wind turbine. Rainflow method is then used to obtain cycle and stress range information of each of these time histories and a statistical analysis is performed to obtain the distribution parameters of each variable. Monte Carlo simulation is used here to evaluate crack growth over time in the tower base using the Paris-Erdogan equation. A nonlinear static pushover analysis to assess the capacity curve of the structure after a number of years is performed. The capacity curves are then used to evaluate the changes in reliability of a steel tower located in Oaxaca, Mexico, where wind energy facilities are expected to grow in the near future. Results show that fatigue on the tower base can have significant effects on the structural capacity of the wind turbine, especially after the 20-year design life when the crack growth curve starts behaving exponentially.

Keywords: crack growth, fatigue, Monte Carlo simulation, structural reliability, wind turbines

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Authors: Beatriz Cortés, Andrés Boza, David Pérez, Llanos Cuenca

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The Internet of Things (IoT) field is been applied in industries with different purposes. Sensing Enterprise (SE) is an attribute of an enterprise or a network that allows it to react to business stimuli originating on the internet. These fields have come into focus recently on the enterprises and there is some evidence of the use and implications in supply chain management while finding it as an interesting aspect to work on. This paper presents a revision and proposals of IoT applications in supply chain management.

Keywords: industrial, internet of things, production systems, sensing enterprises, sensor, supply chain management

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Authors: Omolade Adeleke, Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti

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This study empirically examined the monetary policy and economic growth in the classical cycles in 8 member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), using the Markov switching model for the Two-phase Regime, covering the period 1980Q1 to 2020Q4. Our estimates suggest that these countries demonstrate to have similar business cycles, and the economies stay more in an expansion regime than a recession regime. The result further shows that the union has an average duration period of 3.1 and 15.9 quarters for contraction and expansion periods, respectively. The business cycle duration, on average, suggests 19 quarters, varying from country to country. Therefore, the formulation of policies that can enhance aggregate demand by member countries in the union is an antidote for recession and is necessary to drive the economy into equilibrium. Also, a low-interest rate and reduced inflation rate would ginger long-run economic growth.

Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, economic growth, Markov switching

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Authors: Sriram Kashyap Prasad, Ionut Florescu

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This study models the intraday asset prices as driven by Markov process. This work identifies the latent states of the Hidden Markov model, using limit order book data (trades and quotes) to continuously estimate the states throughout the day. This work builds a trading strategy using estimated states to generate signals. The strategy utilizes current state to recalibrate buy/ sell levels and the transition between states to trigger stop-loss when adverse price movements occur. The proposed trading strategy is tested on the Stevens High Frequency Trading (SHIFT) platform. SHIFT is a highly realistic market simulator with functionalities for creating an artificial market simulation by deploying agents, trading strategies, distributing initial wealth, etc. In the implementation several assets on the NASDAQ exchange are used for testing. In comparison to a strategy with static buy/ sell levels, this study shows that the number of limit orders that get matched and executed can be increased. Executing limit orders earns rebates on NASDAQ. The system can capture jumps in the limit order book prices, provide dynamic buy/sell levels and trigger stop loss signals to improve the PnL (Profit and Loss) performance of the strategy.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, Hidden Markov model, high frequency trading, limit order book learning

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Authors: Sung-Min Park, Chan Kwon Park, Chae-Bogk Kim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between transaction fairness, social capital, supply chain integration and sustainability. Based on the previous studies, measurement items were determined by using SPSS 22 and exploratory factor analysis was performed, and again, using AMOS 21 for confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis was performed by using study items that satisfy reliability, validity, and appropriateness of measurement model. It has shown that transaction fairness has a (+) significant effect on social capital, social capital on supply chain integration, supply chain integration on economic sustainability and social sustainability, and has a (+), but not significant effect on environmental sustainability. It has shown that supply chain integration has been proven to play a role as a parameter between social capital and economic and social sustainability, but not as a parameter between environmental sustainability. Through this study, it is suggested that clearly examining the relationship between fairness of trade, social capital, supply chain integration and sustainability, maintaining fairness of the transaction make formation of social capital, and further integration of supply chain, and achieve sustainability of entire supply chain.

Keywords: transaction fairness, social capital, supply chain integration, sustainability

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Authors: Ms Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis as a tool for the causal inference in the observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned, thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. For the binary outcome, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be estimated by odds ratios, relative risks, and risk differences. However, using the different PS methods may give you a different estimation of the treatment effect on the outcome. Several methods of PS analyses have been used mainly, include matching, inverse probability of weighting, stratification, and covariate adjusted on PS. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables (exposure, covariates), the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect (ATE) utilizing the stratification of PS method. Therefore, we are trying to avoid choosing arbitrary cut-points, instead, we continuously discretize the PS and accumulate information across all cut-points for inferences. We will use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate ATE, focusing on two PS methods, stratification and covariate adjusted on PS. We will then show how this can be observed based on the analyses of the data from a case-control study of breast cancer, the Polish Women’s Health Study.

Keywords: average treatment effect, propensity score, stratification, covariate adjusted, monte Calro estimation, breast cancer, case_control study

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Authors: Amir Azaron

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In this research, a stochastic programming approach is developed for designing supply chains with uncertain parameters. Demands and selling prices of products at markets are considered as the uncertain parameters. The proposed mathematical model will be multi-period two-stage stochastic programming, which takes into account the selection of retailer sites, suppliers, production levels, inventory levels, transportation modes to be used for shipping goods, and shipping quantities among the entities of the supply chain network. The objective function is to maximize the chain’s net present value. In order to maximize the chain’s NPV, the sum of first-stage investment costs on retailers, and the expected second-stage processing, inventory-holding and transportation costs should be kept as low as possible over multiple periods. The effects of supply uncertainty where suppliers are unreliable will also be investigated on the efficiency of the supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain management, stochastic programming, multiobjective programming, inventory control

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Authors: H. S. Kang

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Coupled electrical and optical model for conversion of electrical energy into coherent optical energy for transmitter-receiver link by solid state device is presented. Probability distribution for travelling laser beam switching time intervals and the number of switchings in the time interval is obtained. Selector function mapping is employed to regulate optical data transmission speed. It is established that regulated laser transmission from PhotoActive Laser transmitter follows principal of invariance. This considerably simplifies design of PhotoActive Laser Transmission networks.

Keywords: computational mathematics, finite difference Markov chain methods, sequence spaces, singularly perturbed differential equations

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Authors: Neha Asthana, Vishal Krishna Prasad

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Reverse logistics and green supply chain form an interconnected and interwoven network of parameters that contribute to enhancement and incremental exchange in the triple bottom line in the consistently changing and fragmenting markets of the globalizing markets of today. Reverse logistics not only contributes to completing the supply chain in a comprehensive and synchronized manner but also contributes to a significant degree in optimizing green supply chains through procedures such as recycling, refurbishing etc. contributing to waste reduction. Carbon trading, owing to its limitations in the global context and being in a nascent stage seeks plethora of research to determine its full application in synergy with reverse logistics and green supply chain.

Keywords: reverse logistics, carbon trading, carbon emissions, green supply chain

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Authors: G. Sarwar, C. Mateus, N. Todorovic

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The paper examines the asymmetries in size, value and momentum premium over the economic cycles in the UK and their macroeconomic determinants. Using Markov switching approach we find clear evidence of cyclical variations of the three premiums, most noticeably variations in size premium. We associate Markov switching regime 1 with economic upturn and regime 2 with economic downturn as per OECD’s Composite Leading Indicator. The macroeconomic indicators prompting such cyclicality the most are interest rates, term structure and credit spread. The role of GDP growth, money supply and inflation is less pronounced in our sample.

Keywords: macroeconomic determinants, Markorv Switching, size, value

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Authors: L. Yettou

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In this study, the calculations of proton emission spectra produced by ⁶³Cu(n,xp) and ⁶⁵Cu(n,xp) reactions are used in the framework of preequilibrium models using the EMPIRE code and TALYS code. Exciton Model predidtions combined with the Kalbach angular distribution systematics and the Hybrid Monte Carlo Simulation (HMS) were used. The effects of levels densities and those of a-parameter have been investigated for our calculations. The comparison with experimental data shows clear improvement over the Exciton Model and HMS calculations.

Keywords: Preequilibrium models , level density, level density a-parameter., Empire code, Talys code.

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Authors: Zohreh Khojasteh-Ghamari, Takashi Irohara

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One of the efficient ways in supply chain risk management is avoiding the interruption in Supply Chain (SC) before it occurs. Although the majority of the organizations focus on their first-tier suppliers to avoid risk in the SC, studies show that in only 60 percent of the disruption cases the reason is first tier suppliers. In the 40 percent of the SC disruptions, the reason is downstream SC, which is the second tier and lower. Due to the increasing complexity and interrelation of modern supply chains, the SC elements have become difficult to trace. Moreover, studies show that there is a vital need to better understand the integration of risk and visibility, especially in the context of multiple objectives. In this study, we propose a multi-objective programming model to avoid disruption in SC. The objective of this study is evaluating the effect of downstream SCV on managing supply chain risk. We propose a multi-objective mathematical programming model with the objective functions of minimizing the total cost and maximizing the downstream supply chain visibility (SCV). The decision variable is supplier selection. We assume there are several manufacturers and several candidate suppliers. For each manufacturer, our model proposes the best suppliers with the lowest cost and maximum visibility in downstream supply chain. We examine the applicability of the model by numerical examples. We also define several scenarios for datasets and observe the tendency. The results show that minimum visibility in downstream SC is needed to have a safe SC network.

Keywords: downstream supply chain, optimization, supply chain risk, supply chain visibility

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Authors: Ashish Bohre, Blaž Likozar, Saikat Dutta, Dionisios G. Vlachos, Basudeb Saha

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Graphene oxide, decorated with surface oxygen functionalities, has emerged as a sustainable alternative to precious metal catalysts for many reactions. Herein, we report for the first time that graphene oxide becomes super active for C-C coupling upon incorporation of multilayer crystalline features, highly oxidized surface, Brønsted acidic functionalities and defect sites on the surface and edges via modified oxidation. The resulting improved graphene oxide (IGO) demonstrates superior activity to commonly used framework zeolites for upgrading of low carbon biomass furanics to long carbon chain aviation fuel precursors. A maximum 95% yield of C15 fuel precursor with high selectivity is obtained at low temperature (60 C) and neat conditions via hydroxyalkylation/alkylation (HAA) of 2-methylfuran (2-MF) and furfural. The coupling of 2-MF with carbonyl molecules ranging from C3 to C6 produced the precursors of carbon numbers 12 to 21. The catalyst becomes inactive in the 4th cycle due to the loss of oxygen functionalities, defect sites and multilayer features; however, regains comparable activity upon regeneration. Extensive microscopic and spectroscopic characterization of the fresh and reused IGO is presented to elucidate high activity of IGO and to establish a correlation between activity and surface and structural properties. Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations are presented to further illustrate the surface features and the reaction mechanism.

Keywords: methacrylic acid, itaconic acid, biomass, monomer, solid base catalyst

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Authors: Yue Meng, Lingyun Wei

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In this paper, the coordination problem of a supply chain system composed of multiple retailers and manufacturers is studied under the background of the new retail supply chain. Taking a system composed of two retailers and one manufacturer as an example, this paper introduces an online store owned by the manufacturer to reflect the characteristics of the combination of online and offline new retail. Then, this paper gives the conditions that need to be satisfied to realize the coordination between retailers and manufacturers, such as the revenue sharing coefficient. The supply chain coordination model is compared with the newsboy model through a specific example. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that the profits of the coordinated supply chain and its members are better than the corresponding profits under the newsboy model; that is, the coordination of the supply chain is realized by using the revenue sharing contract and the transshipment fund mechanism.

Keywords: transshipment, coordination, multi-retailer, revenue-sharing contract

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Authors: Ramon Erasmo Verdin Rodriguez

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Many has been the ways that historically the managers and gurus has been trying to get closer to the perfect supply chain, but since this topic is so vast and very complex the bigger the companies are, the duty has not been certainly easy. On this research, you are going to see thru the entrails of the logistics that happens at a glass manufacturing company with the number one raw material of the process that is the silica sand. After a very quick passage thru the supply chain, this document is going to focus on the way that raw materials flow thru the system, so after that, an analysis and research can take place to improve the logistics. Thru Operations Research techniques, it will be analyzed the current scheme of distribution and inventories of raw materials at a glass company’s plants, so after a mathematical conceptualization process, the supply chain could be optimized with the purpose of reducing the uncertainty of supply and obtaining an economic benefit at the very end of this research.

Keywords: inventory management, operations research, optimization, supply chain

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Authors: Sameh Abaza, Mohamed Ibrahim, Tarek Mahmoud

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Due to the development in the digital image processing, its wide use in many applications such as medical, security, and others, the need for more accurate techniques that are reliable, fast and robust is vehemently demanded. In the field of security, in particular, speed is of the essence. In this paper, a pattern recognition technique that is based on the use of Hidden Markov Model (HMM), K-means and the Sobel operator method is developed. The proposed technique is proved to be fast with respect to some other techniques that are investigated for comparison. Moreover, it shows its capability of recognizing the normal face (center part) as well as face boundary.

Keywords: HMM, K-Means, Sobel, accuracy, face recognition

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Authors: Jung-Hsuan Hsu

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Due to intense competition within the industry, companies have increasingly recognized partnerships with other companies. In addition, with outsourcing and globalization of the supply chain, it leads to companies' increasing reliance on external resources. Consequently, supply chain network becomes complex, so that it reduces the visibility of the manufacturing process. Therefore, this study is going to focus on the impact of supply chain relationship quality (SCRQ) on cooperative strategy and visibility. Questionnaire survey is going to be conducted as research method, using the organic food industry as the research subject, and the sampling method is random sampling. Finally, the data analysis will use SPSS statistical software and AMOS software to analyze and verify the hypothesis. The expected results in this study is to evaluate the supply chain relationship quality between Taiwan's food manufacturing and their suppliers regarding whether it has a positive impact for the persistence, frequency and diversity of cooperative strategy, as well as the dimensions of supply chain relationship quality on visibility regarding whether it has a positive effect.

Keywords: supply chain relationship quality (SCRQ), cooperative strategy, visibility, competition

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Authors: Hung Nguyen

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With the rise of global supply chain network, the choice of supply chain orientation is critical. The alignment between cultural similarity and supply chain information exchange could help identify appropriate supply chain orientations, which would differentiate the stronger competitors and performers from the weaker ones. Through developing a taxonomy, this study examined whether the choices of action programs and manufacturing performance differ depending on the levels of attainment cultural similarity and information exchange. This study employed statistical tests on a large-scale dataset consisting of 680 manufacturing plants from various cultures and industries. Firms need to align cultural practices with the level of information exchange in order to achieve good overall business performance. There appeared to be consistent three major orientations: the Proactive, the Initiative and the Reactive. Firms are experiencing higher payoffs from various improvements are the ones successful alignment in both information exchange and cultural similarity The findings provide step-by-step decision making for supply chain information exchange and offer guidance especially for global supply chain managers. In including both cultural similarity and information exchange, this paper adds greater comprehensiveness and richness to the supply chain literature.

Keywords: culture, information exchange, supply chain orientation, similarity

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Authors: Yangrae Cho, Jinseok Kim, Yongtae Park

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Mobile app service ecosystem has been abruptly emerged, explosively grown, and dynamically transformed. In contrast with product markets in which product sales directly cause increment in firm’s income, customer’s usage is less visible but more valuable in service market. Especially, the market situation with cutthroat competition in mobile app store makes securing and keeping of users as vital. Although a few service firms try to manage their apps’ usage patterns by fitting on S-curve or applying other forecasting techniques, the time series approaches based on past sequential data are subject to fundamental limitation in the market where customer’s attention is being moved unpredictably and dynamically. We therefore propose a new conceptual approach for detecting usage pattern of mobile app service with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is based on the dual stochastic structure and mainly used to clarify unpredictable and dynamic sequential patterns in voice recognition or stock forecasting. Our approach could be practically utilized for app service firms to manage their services’ lifecycles and academically expanded to other markets.

Keywords: mobile app service, usage pattern, Hidden Markov Model, pattern detection

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Authors: Mahsa Oroojeni Mohammad Javad

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Globalization of economic activity and rapid growth of information technology has resulted in shorter product lifecycles, reduced transport capacity, dynamic and changing customer behaviors, and an increased focus on supply chain design in recent years. The design of the supply chain network is one of the most important supply chain management decisions. These decisions will have a long-term impact on the efficacy and efficiency of the supply chain. In this paper, a two-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed for designing and optimizing a closed-loop green supply chain network that, to the greatest extent possible, includes all real-world assumptions such as multi-level supply chain, the multiplicity of production technologies, and multiple modes of transportation, with the goals of minimizing the total cost of the chain (first objective) and minimizing total emissions of emissions (second objective). The ε-constraint and CPLEX Solver have been used to solve the problem as a single-objective problem and validate the problem. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is applied to study the effect of the real-world parameters’ changes on the objective function. The optimal management suggestions and policies are presented.

Keywords: closed-loop supply chain, multi-level green supply chain, mixed-integer programming, transportation modes

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Authors: Abdul Halim Abdul Razik, Ali Elkamel, Leonardo Simon

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Wheat straw is one of the alternative feedstocks that may be utilized for bioethanol production especially when sustainability criteria are the major concerns. To increase market competitiveness, optimal supply chain plays an important role since wheat straw is a seasonal agricultural residue. In designing the supply chain optimization model, economic profitability of the thermochemical and biochemical conversion routes options were considered. It was found that torrefied pelletization with gasification route to be the most profitable option to produce bioethanol from the lignocellulosic source of wheat straw.

Keywords: bio-ethanol, optimization, supply chain, wheat straw

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Authors: Mehmood Faisal

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In this globalization era, the supply chain management has acquired strategic importance in diverse business environments. In the current highly competitive business environment, the success of any business considerably depends on the efficiency of the supply chain. The importance of petroleum industry cannot be avoided in the global market; however, supply chain management in the petroleum industry is facing various challenges, particularly in the logistics area. These logistical challenges have a main influence on the cost of crude oil; therefore, the opportunities to save cost in logistics still do exist. The large oil producing companies are undertaking future contracts through 'swaps or options' practice that saves their millions of dollars. The objective of this paper is to throw light on the supply chain challenges and opportunities in the oil industry and on swap practices which are widely employed by large oil producing companies around the world, such as Chevron Corporation, Saudi Arabian Oil Company, BP and Exxon Mobil.

Keywords: logistics, oil industry, swap practice, supply chain management

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Authors: Hamed Homaei, Seyed Reza Hejazi, Iraj Mahdavi

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Return policy (RP) is a strategy for supply chain coordination, whereby the retailer returns the unsold products to the manufacturer or the manufacturer offers a credit on unsold products to the retailer at the end of selling season. Early order commitment (EOC) is another efficient mechanism for channel coordination wherein the retailer commits to purchasing from the manufacturer a fixed order quantity a few periods in advance of the regular delivery lead time. This paper studies the coordination issue of a two-level supply chain with one retailer and one manufacturer through combining two mentioned contracts. The main purpose of this paper is to present an analytical model to show that how the contract which is created by combining RP and EOC can improve supply chain performance. Numerical analyses show that the supply chain coordination through mentioned contract in compare with EOC mechanism, can improve supply chain performance under certain ranges of model parameters. Furthermore, some numerical analyses are done to determine the best buyback price in order to achieve maximum cost saving in the supply chain. Finally, a revenue sharing scheme is presented in order to achieve a win-win condition in the supply chain.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, early order commitment, return policy, revenue sharing

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Authors: Archit Yajnik

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Part of Speech Tagging has always been a challenging task in the era of Natural Language Processing. This article presents POS tagging for Nepali text using Hidden Markov Model and Viterbi algorithm. From the Nepali text, annotated corpus training and testing data set are randomly separated. Both methods are employed on the data sets. Viterbi algorithm is found to be computationally faster and accurate as compared to HMM. The accuracy of 95.43% is achieved using Viterbi algorithm. Error analysis where the mismatches took place is elaborately discussed.

Keywords: hidden markov model, natural language processing, POS tagging, viterbi algorithm

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Authors: Dharamvir Mangal

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Supply chain management has increasingly become an inevitable challenge to most companies to continuously survive and prosper in the global chain-based competitive environment. The current challenges of the Indian automotive world, their implications on supply chain are summarized and analyzed in this paper. In this competitive era of ‘LPG’ i.e. Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization, modern marketing systems, introduction of products with short life cycles, and the discriminating expectations of customers have enforced business enterprises to invest in and focus attention on their Supply Chains (SCs) in order to meet out the level of customer’s satisfaction and to survive in the competitive market. In fact, many of trends in the auto industry are reinforcing the need to redefine supply chain strategies layouts, and operations etc. Many manufacturing operations are designed to maximize throughput and lower costs with modest considerations for the crash on inventory levels and distribution capabilities. To improve profitability and efficiency, automotive players are seeking ways to achieve operational excellence, reduce operating cost and enhance customer service through efficient supply chain management.

Keywords: automotive industry, supply chain, challenges, market potential

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Authors: Benmoussa Rachid, Deguio Roland, Dubois Sebastien, Rasovska Ivana

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Implementation of LARG (Lean, Agile, Resilient, Green) practices in the supply chain management is a complex task mainly because ecological, economical and operational goals are usually in conflict. To implement these LARG practices successfully, companies’ need relevant decision making tools allowing processes performance control and improvement strategies visibility. To contribute to this issue, this work tries to answer the following research question: How to master performance and anticipate problems in supply chain LARG practices implementation? To answer this question, a risk management approach (RMA) is adopted. Indeed, the proposed RMA aims basically to assess the ability of a supply chain, guided by “Lean, Green and Achievement” performance goals, to face “agility and resilience risk” factors. To proof its relevance, a logistics academic case study based on simulation is used to illustrate all its stages. It shows particularly how to build the “LARG risk map” which is the main output of this approach.

Keywords: agile supply chain, lean supply chain, green supply chain, resilient supply chain, risk approach

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