Search results for: Isabel Jones
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 228

Search results for: Isabel Jones

198 A Bayesian Model with Improved Prior in Extreme Value Problems

Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

Abstract:

In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

Procedia PDF Downloads 168
197 Effect of Long Term Orientation and Indulgence on Earnings Management: The Moderating Role of Legal Tradition

Authors: I. Martinez-Conesa, E. Garcia-Meca, M. Barradas-Quiroz

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The objective of this study is to assess the impact on earnings management of latest two Hofstede cultural dimensions: long-term orientation and indulgence. Long-term orientation represents the alignment of a society towards the future and indulgence expresses the extent to which a society exhibits willingness, or restrain, to realise their impulses. Additionally, this paper tests if there are relevant differences by testing the moderating role of the legal tradition, Continental versus Anglo-Saxon. Our sample comprises 15 countries: Belgium, Canada, Germany, Spain, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Philippines, Portugal, Sweden, and Thailand, with a total of 12,936 observations from 2003 to 2013. Our results show that managers in countries with high levels of long-term orientation reduce their levels of discretionary accruals. The findings do not confirm the effect of indulgence on earnings management. In addition, our results confirm previous literature regarding the effect of individualism, noting that firms in countries with high levels of collectivism might be more inclined to use earnings discretion to protect the welfare of the collective group of firm stakeholders. Uncertainty avoidance results in downwards earnings management as well as high disclosure, suggesting that less manipulation takes place when transparency is higher. Indulgence is the cultural dimension that confronts wellbeing versus survival; dimension is formulated including happiness, the perception of live control and the importance of leisure. Indulgence shows a weak negative correlation with power distance indicating a slight tendency for more hierarchical societies to be less indulgent. Anglo-Saxon countries are a positive effect of individualism and a negative effect of masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and disclosure. With respect to continental countries, we can see a significant and positive effect of individualism and a significant and negative effect of masculinity, long-term orientation, and indulgence. Therefore, we observe the negative effect on earnings management provoked by higher disclosure and uncertainty avoidance only happens in Anglo-Saxon countries. Meanwhile, the improvement in reporting quality motivated by higher long-term orientation and higher indulgence is dominant in Continental countries. Our results confirm that there is a moderating effect of the legal system in the association between culture and earnings management. This effect is especially relevant in the dimensions related to uncertainty avoidance, long term orientation, indulgence, and disclosure. The negative effect of long-term orientation on earnings management only happens in those countries set in continental legal systems because of the Anglo-Saxon legal systems is supported by the decisions of the courts and the traditions, so it already has long-term orientation. That does not occur in continental systems, depending mainly of contend of the law. Sensitivity analysis used with Jones modified CP model, Jones Standard model and Jones Standard CP model confirm the robustness of these results. This paper collaborates towards a better understanding on how earnings management, culture and legal systems relate to each other, and contribute to previous literature by examining the influence of the two latest Hofstede’s dimensions not previously studied in papers.

Keywords: Hofstede, long-term-orientation, earnings management, indulgence

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
196 Implementation and Validation of Therapeutic Tourism Products for Families With Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder in Azores Islands: “Azores All in Blue” Project

Authors: Ana Rita Conde, Pilar Mota, Tânia Botelho, Suzana Caldeira, Isabel Rego, Jessica Pacheco, Osvaldo Silva, Áurea Sousa

Abstract:

Tourism promotes well-being and health to children with ASD and their families. Literature indicates the need to provide tourist activities that integrate the therapeutic component, to promote the development and well-being of children with ASD. The study aims to implement tourist offers in Azores that integrate the therapeutic feature, assess their suitability and impact on the well-being and health of the child and caregivers. Using a mixed methodology, the study integrates families that experience and evaluate the impact of tourism products developed specifically for them.

Keywords: austism spectrum disorder, children, therapeutic tourism activities, well-being, health, inclusive tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
195 Influence of Wavelengths on Photosensitivity of Copper Phthalocyanine Based Photodetectors

Authors: Lekshmi Vijayan, K. Shreekrishna Kumar

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We demonstrated an organic field effect transistor based photodetector using phthalocyanine as the active material that exhibited high photosensitivity under varying light wavelengths. The thermally grown SiO₂ layer on silicon wafer act as a substrate. The critical parameters, such as photosensitivity, responsivity and detectivity, are comparatively high and were 3.09, 0.98AW⁻¹ and 4.86 × 10¹⁰ Jones, respectively, under a bias of 5 V and a monochromatic illumination intensity of 4mW cm⁻². The photodetector has a linear I-V curve with a low dark current. On comparing photoresponse of copper phthalocyanine at four different wavelengths, 560 nm shows better photoresponse and the highest value of photosensitivity is also obtained.

Keywords: photodetector, responsivity, photosensitivity, detectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
194 Pure Economic Loss: A Trouble Child

Authors: Isabel Mousinho de Figueiredo

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Pure economic loss can be brought into the 21st century and become a useful tool to keep the tort of negligence within reasonable limits, provided the concept is minutely reexamined. The term came about when wealth was physical, and Law wanted to be a modern science. As a tool to draw the line, it leads to satisfactory decisions in most cases, but needlessly creates distressing conundrums in others, and these are the ones parties bother to litigate about. Economic loss is deemed to be pure based on a blind negative criterion of physical harm, that inadvertently smelts vastly disparate problems into an indiscernible mass, with arbitrary outcomes. These shortcomings are usually dismissed as minor byproducts, for the lack of a better formula. Law could instead stick to the sound paradigms of the intended rule, and be more specific in identifying the losses deserving of compensation. This would provide a better service to Bench and Bar, and effectively assist everyone navigating the many challenges of Accident Law.

Keywords: accident law, comparative tort law, negligence, pure economic loss

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193 Directors’ Compensation: Analyzing the Multilevel Factors That Exert the Greatest Influence

Authors: Isabel Acero, Nuria Alcalde

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The economic crisis and notorious corporate scandals have caused social indignation and sparked the debate concerning the underlying rationality of the compensation that directors receive. In this context, this study examines the determinants of the remuneration of directors in listed Spanish companies using individualized data. A multilevel methodology appropriate for this type of data has been used that allows us to differentiate between inter-company variations and intra-company variations. The results show that company size is the variable (at the company level) that exerts the greatest influence on the level of director´s compensation. One surprising finding is that the presence of independent directors on the board has a positive influence on remuneration. At the individual level, tenure and experience have a significant influence on the level of compensation, while the director´s level of education does not appear to have an effect on it.

Keywords: board of directors, compensation, experience, multilevel, tenure

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192 Analytical Similarity Assessment of Bevacizumab Biosimilar Candidate MB02 Using Multiple State-of-the-Art Assays

Authors: Marie-Elise Beydon, Daniel Sacristan, Isabel Ruppen

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MB02 (Alymsys®) is a candidate biosimilar to bevacizumab, which was developed against the reference product (RP) Avastin® sourced from both the European Union (EU) and United States (US). MB02 has been extensively characterized comparatively to Avastin® at a physicochemical and biological level using sensitive orthogonal state-of-the-art analytical methods. MB02 has been demonstrated similar to the RP with regard to its primary and higher-order structure, post- and co-translational profiles such as glycosylation, charge, and size variants. Specific focus has been put on the characterization of Fab-related activities, such as binding to VEGF A 165, which directly reflect the bevacizumab mechanism of action. Fc-related functionality was also investigated, including binding to FcRn, which is indicative of antibodies' half-life. The data generated during the analytical similarity assessment demonstrate the high analytical similarity of MB02 to its RP.

Keywords: analytical similarity, bevacizumab, biosimilar, MB02

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191 Optimization of Black-Litterman Model for Portfolio Assets Allocation

Authors: A. Hidalgo, A. Desportes, E. Bonin, A. Kadaoui, T. Bouaricha

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Present paper is concerned with portfolio management with Black-Litterman (B-L) model. Considered stocks are exclusively limited to large companies stocks on US market. Results obtained by application of the model are presented. From analysis of collected Dow Jones stock data, remarkable explicit analytical expression of optimal B-L parameter τ, which scales dispersion of normal distribution of assets mean return, is proposed in terms of standard deviation of covariance matrix. Implementation has been developed in Matlab environment to split optimization in Markovitz sense from specific elements related to B-L representation.

Keywords: Black-Litterman, Markowitz, market data, portfolio manager opinion

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
190 Psychosocial Processes and Strategies behind Islamic Deradicalisation: A Scoping Review

Authors: Carvalho M. Catia, Pinto R. Isabel, Azevedo F. Luis, Guerreiro, T. Alexandre, Barbosa R. Mariana, Pinto S. Marta

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Due to the loss of territory, foreign terrorist fighters who have joined Islamic State are returning to their home countries. In order to counter this threat to international security, it is important to implement deradicalisation programmes, through strategies and processes that can reverse radicalisation. The objectives of this scoping review - which is underway - are to provide a comprehensive overview of the programmes being implemented, its main characteristics, the main motives and processes leading to deradicalisation, and to identify the key findings and the existing gaps in the literature. The methodology to be implemented in this scoping review follows the guidelines proposed by Arksey and O’Malley and by The Joanna Briggs Institute. The main results will be the development of a synthesis map of the deradicalisation programmes existing in the world, its main features, and recommendations to policy-makers and professionals.

Keywords: deradicalisation strategies, psychosocial processes, radicalisation, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 355
189 A Formal Approach for Instructional Design Integrated with Data Visualization for Learning Analytics

Authors: Douglas A. Menezes, Isabel D. Nunes, Ulrich Schiel

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Most Virtual Learning Environments do not provide support mechanisms for the integrated planning, construction and follow-up of Instructional Design supported by Learning Analytic results. The present work aims to present an authoring tool that will be responsible for constructing the structure of an Instructional Design (ID), without the data being altered during the execution of the course. The visual interface aims to present the critical situations present in this ID, serving as a support tool for the course follow-up and possible improvements, which can be made during its execution or in the planning of a new edition of this course. The model for the ID is based on High-Level Petri Nets and the visualization forms are determined by the specific kind of the data generated by an e-course, a population of students generating sequentially dependent data.

Keywords: educational data visualization, high-level petri nets, instructional design, learning analytics

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188 Representations of Childcare Robots as a Controversial Issue

Authors: Raya A. Jones

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This paper interrogates online representations of robot companions for children, including promotional material by manufacturers, media articles and technology blogs. The significance of the study lies in its contribution to understanding attitudes to robots. The prospect of childcare robots is particularly controversial ethically, and is associated with emotive arguments. The sampled material is restricted to relatively recent posts (the past three years) though the analysis identifies both continuous and changing themes across the past decade. The method extrapolates social representations theory towards examining the ways in which information about robotic products is provided for the general public. Implications for social acceptance of robot companions for the home and robot ethics are considered.

Keywords: acceptance of robots, childcare robots, ethics, social representations

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187 Auditory Brainstem Response in Wave VI for the Detection of Learning Disabilities

Authors: Maria Isabel Garcia-Planas, Maria Victoria Garcia-Camba

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The use of brain stem auditory evoked potential (BAEP) is a common way to study the auditory function of people, a way to learn the functionality of a part of the brain neuronal groups that intervene in the learning process by studying the behaviour of wave VI. The latest advances in neuroscience have revealed the existence of different brain activity in the learning process that can be highlighted through the use of innocuous, low-cost, and easy-access techniques such as, among others, the BAEP that can help us to detect early possible neurodevelopmental difficulties for their subsequent assessment and cure. To date and to the authors' best knowledge, only the latency data obtained, observing the first to V waves and mainly in the left ear, were taken into account. This work shows that it is essential to take into account both ears; with these latest data, it has been possible had diagnosed more precise some cases than with the previous data had been diagnosed as 'normal' despite showing signs of some alteration that motivated the new consultation to the specialist.

Keywords: ear, neurodevelopment, auditory evoked potentials, intervals of normality, learning disabilities

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186 Spatial Econometric Approaches for Count Data: An Overview and New Directions

Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

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This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data

Procedia PDF Downloads 558
185 Ecotoxicological Safety of Wastewater Treated with Lignocellulosic Adsorbents

Authors: Luísa P. Cruz-Lopes, Artur Figueirinha, Isabel Brás, Bruno Esteves

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Portugal is an important wine and olive oil producer, activities which generate a high quantity of residues commonly called grape stalks and olive cake, respectively. In this work grape stalks and olive cake were used as lignocellulosic adsorbents for wastewater containing lead treatment. To attain a better knowledge of the factors that could influence the quality of the treated wastewater, a chemical characterization of the materials used in the treatment was done. To access the ecotoxicological safety of the treated wastewater, several tests were performed. The results of the toxicity test show that the samples leachate has a mild effect on the living models tested. The tests performed in lemna and bacteria were the most sensible to toxicity effects of the samples. The results obtained in this work evidenced the importance of use of simple and fast toxicity tests to predict impacts in the environment.

Keywords: chemical composition, lignocellulosic residues, ecotoxicological safety, wastewater

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184 Volatile Composition of Sucuks: A Traditional Dry-Fermented Sausage Affected by Meat and Fat Types

Authors: Mina Kargozari, Isabel Revilla Martin, Ángel A. Carbonell-Barrachina, Antoni Szumny

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The profiles of volatile compounds of differently formulated sausages including CH (camel meat-hump), CB (camel meat-beef fat), BH (beef-hump) and BB (beef-beef fat) were analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC-MS) using a solid phase micro-extraction (SPME) in order to investigate the role of meat and fat type in aroma compounds release. A total of 47 compounds identified, were consisted of 3 acids, 1 ester, 3 alcohols, 7 aldehydes, 5 sulphur compounds, and 27 terpenes. The significant differences were observed in the aroma compounds among four batches. The CH sucuk samples containing the highest (p<0.05) fat amount among the others showed higher amounts of volatiles in consequence. The sausages prepared with hump showed higher amounts of aldehydes and lower amounts of terpenes compared to the sausages made with beef fat (p<0.05). It seemed that meat type had an inconsiderable effect on the volatile profile of the sausages.

Keywords: aromatic compounds, camel meat, hump, SPME

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183 Assessment of the Impact of Traffic Safety Policy in Barcelona, 2010-2019

Authors: Lluís Bermúdez, Isabel Morillo

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Road safety involves carrying out a determined and explicit policy to reduce accidents. In the city of Barcelona, through the Local Road Safety Plan 2013-2018, in line with the framework that has been established at the European and state level, a series of preventive, corrective and technical measures are specified, with the priority objective of reducing the number of serious injuries and fatalities. In this work, based on the data from the accidents managed by the local police during the period 2010-2019, an analysis is carried out to verify whether the measures established in the Plan to reduce the accident rate have had an effect or not and to what extent. The analysis focuses on the type of accident and the type of vehicles involved. Different count regression models have been fitted, from which it can be deduced that the number of serious and fatal victims of the accidents that have occurred in the city of Barcelona has been reduced as the measures approved by the authorities.

Keywords: accident reduction, count regression models, road safety, urban traffic

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182 Neuron-Based Control Mechanisms for a Robotic Arm and Hand

Authors: Nishant Singh, Christian Huyck, Vaibhav Gandhi, Alexander Jones

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A robotic arm and hand controlled by simulated neurons is presented. The robot makes use of a biological neuron simulator using a point neural model. The neurons and synapses are organised to create a finite state automaton including neural inputs from sensors, and outputs to effectors. The robot performs a simple pick-and-place task. This work is a proof of concept study for a longer term approach. It is hoped that further work will lead to more effective and flexible robots. As another benefit, it is hoped that further work will also lead to a better understanding of human and other animal neural processing, particularly for physical motion. This is a multidisciplinary approach combining cognitive neuroscience, robotics, and psychology.

Keywords: cell assembly, force sensitive resistor, robot, spiking neuron

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181 Estimation of the Drought Index Based on the Climatic Projections of Precipitation of the Uruguay River Basin

Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

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The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: climate change, climatic model, dry events, precipitation projections

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180 Asymptotic Expansion of Double Oscillatory Integrals: Contribution of Non Stationary Critical Points of the Second Kind

Authors: Abdallah Benaissa

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In this paper, we consider the problem of asymptotics of double oscillatory integrals in the case of critical points of the second kind, the order of contact between the boundary and a level curve of the phase being even, the situation when the order of contact is odd will be studied in other occasions. Complete asymptotic expansions will be derived and the coefficient of the leading term will be computed in terms of the original data of the problem. A multitude of people have studied this problem using a variety of methods, but only in a special case when the order of contact is minimal: the more cited papers are a paper of Jones and Kline and an other one of Chako. These integrals are encountered in many areas of science, especially in problems of diffraction of optics.

Keywords: asymptotic expansion, double oscillatory integral, critical point of the second kind, optics diffraction

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179 Progress in Accuracy, Reliability and Safety in Firedamp Detection

Authors: José Luis Lorenzo Bayona, Ljiljana Medic-Pejic, Isabel Amez Arenillas, Blanca Castells Somoza

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The communication presents the study results carried out by the Official Laboratory J. M. Madariaga (LOM) of the Polytechnic University of Madrid to analyze the reliability of methane detection systems used in underground mining. Poor firedamp control in work can cause from production stoppages to fatal accidents and since there is currently a great variety of equipment with different functional characteristics, a study is needed to indicate which measurement principles have the highest degree of confidence. For the development of the project, a series of fixed, transportable and portable methane detectors with different measurement principles have been selected to subject them to laboratory tests following the methods described in the applicable regulations. The test equipment has been the one usually used in the certification and calibration of these devices, subject to the LOM quality system, and the tests have been carried out on detectors accessible in the market. The conclusions establish the main advantages and disadvantages of the equipment according to the measurement principle used; catalytic combustion, interferometry and infrared absorption.

Keywords: ATEX standards, gas detector, methane meter, mining safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
178 Digitalised Welfare: Systems for Both Seeing and Working with Mess

Authors: Amelia Morris, Lizzie Coles-Kemp, Will Jones

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This paper examines how community welfare initiatives transform how individuals use and experience an ostensibly universal welfare system. This paper argues that the digitalisation of welfare overlooks the complex reality of being unemployed or in low-wage work, and erects digital barriers to accessing welfare. Utilising analysis of ethnographic research in food banks and community groups, the paper explores the ways that Universal Credit has not abolished face-to-face support, but relocated it to unofficial sites of welfare. The apparent efficiency and simplicity of the state’s digital welfare apparatus, therefore, is produced not by reducing the ‘messiness’ of welfare, but by rendering it invisible within the digital framework. Using the analysis of the study’s data, this paper recommends three principles of service design that would render the messiness visible to the state.

Keywords: welfare, digitalisation, food bank, Universal Credit

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177 A Theoretical Framework on Using Social Stories with the Creative Arts for Individuals on the Autistic Spectrum

Authors: R. Bawazir, P. Jones

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Social Stories are widely used to teach social and communication skills or concepts to individuals on the autistic spectrum. This paper presents a theoretical framework for using Social Stories in conjunction with the creative arts. The paper argues that Bandura’s social learning theory can be used to explain the mechanisms behind Social Stories and the way they influence changes in response, while Gardner’s multiple intelligences theory can be used simultaneously to demonstrate the role of the creative arts in learning. By using Social Stories with the creative arts for individuals on the autistic spectrum, the aim is to meet individual needs and help individuals with autism to develop in different areas of learning and communication.

Keywords: individuals on the autistic spectrum, social stories, the creative arts, theoretical framework

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176 A Method to Enhance the Accuracy of Digital Forensic in the Absence of Sufficient Evidence in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Fahad Alanazi, Andrew Jones

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Digital forensics seeks to achieve the successful investigation of digital crimes through obtaining acceptable evidence from digital devices that can be presented in a court of law. Thus, the digital forensics investigation is normally performed through a number of phases in order to achieve the required level of accuracy in the investigation processes. Since 1984 there have been a number of models and frameworks developed to support the digital investigation processes. In this paper, we review a number of the investigation processes that have been produced throughout the years and introduce a proposed digital forensic model which is based on the scope of the Saudi Arabia investigation process. The proposed model has been integrated with existing models for the investigation processes and produced a new phase to deal with a situation where there is initially insufficient evidence.

Keywords: digital forensics, process, metadata, Traceback, Sauid Arabia

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175 Doris Salcedo: Parameters of Political Commitment in Colombia

Authors: Diana Isabel Torres Silva

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Doris Salcedo is the most prominent sculptor from Colombia ever and currently, one of the most prestigious Latin-American artists in the world. Her artwork, intended as political art, has war as a background, in particular the Colombian civil conflict, and it addresses the way that its violence affects victims’ lives irreparably. While Salcedo is internationally recognized as a talented and a politically committed artist, some Colombian critics consider her artwork as the propagandist and influenced by the interest of multinational companies and the organizations that fund it. This paper, as part of a more extended research project, attempts to demonstrate that Doris Salcedo’s artwork makes visible the victims suffering and mourning and compels the viewers’ sympathy, although its approach is superficial. It does not achieve a complete or complex understanding of the social and historical causes underneath the war and maybe because of that has become a successful commodity for the international arts market. The paper considers, firstly, the influence that Colombian Nuevo Teatro, from the sixties, had on Salcedo’s early political perspective and, secondly, analyzes in detail the first series of her artwork (1992-1998) and how those works address grieving. The focus point of this analysis will be the domestic furniture sculptures, which are the main symbolic element of Salcedo’s oeuvre.

Keywords: Arts and politics, Doris Salcedo, Colombian art, Political Art

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174 Future-Proofing the Workforce: A Case Study of Integrated Human Capability Frameworks to Support Business Success

Authors: Penelope Paliadelis, Asheley Jones, Glenn Campbell

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This paper discusses the development of co-designed capability frameworks for two large multinational organizations led by a university department. The aim was to create evidence-based, integrated capability frameworks that could define, identify, and measure human skill capabilities independent of specific work roles. The frameworks capture and cluster human skills required in the workplace and capture their application at various levels of mastery. Identified capability gaps inform targeted learning opportunities for workers to enhance their employability skills. The paper highlights the value of this evidence-based framework development process in capturing, defining, and assessing desired human-focused capabilities for organizational growth and success.

Keywords: capability framework, human skills, work-integrated learning, credentialing, digital badging

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173 Math Anxiety Effects on Complex Addition: An ERP Study

Authors: María Isabel Núñez-Peña, Macarena Suárez Pellicioni

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In the present study, we used event-related potentials (ERP) to address the question of whether high (HMA) and low math-anxious (LMA) individuals differ on a complex addition verification task, which involved both carrying and non-carrying additions. ERPs were recorded while seventeen HMA and seventeen LMA individuals performed the verification task. Groups did not differ in trait anxiety or gender distribution. Participants were presented with two-digit additions and were asked to decide whether the proposed solution was correct or incorrect. Behavioral data showed a significant Carrying x Proposed solution x Group interaction for accuracy, showing that carrying additions were more error prone than non-carrying ones for both groups, although the difference non-carrying minus carrying was larger for the HMA group. As for ERPs, a P2 component larger in HMA individuals than in their LMA peers was found both for carrying and non-carrying additions. The P2 was followed by a sustained negative slow wave at parietal positions. Because the negative slow waves are thought to reflect the updating of working memory, these results give support to the relationship among working memory, math performance and math anxiety.

Keywords: math anxiety, carrying, working memory, P2

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172 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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171 The Influence of Japanese Poetry in Spanish Piano Music: Benet Casablancas and Mercedes Zavala’s Haikus

Authors: Isabel Pérez Dobarro

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In the mid-twentieth century, Spanish composers started looking beyond the national folkloric tradition (adopted by Albéniz, Granados, and Falla) and Rodrigo’s neoclassicism, and searched for other sources of inspiration. Japanese Haikus fascinated Spanish musicians, who found in their brevity and imagination a new avenue to develop their creativity. The goal of this research is to study how two renowned Spanish authors, Benet Casablancas and Mercedes Zavala, incorporated Haikus into their piano works. Based on Bruhn’s methodology on text and instrumental music relations, and developing a score and text analysis complemented by interviews with both composers, this study has revealed three possible interactions between the Haikus and these composers’ piano writing: inspiration, transmedialization, and mimesis. Findings also include specific technical gestures to support each of these approaches. Commonalities between their pieces and those by other non-Spanish composers such as Jonathan Harvey, John Cage, and Michael Berkeley have also been explored. According to the author's knowledge, this is the first study on the Japanese influence in Spanish piano music. Thus, it opens a new path for understanding musical exchanges between both countries as well as contemporary piano tools that support the interaction between text and music.

Keywords: Haiku, Spanish piano music, Benet Casablancas, Mercedes Zavala

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170 Dialogues of Medical Places and Health Care in Oporto City (20th Century)

Authors: Monique Palma, Isabel Amaral

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This paper aims at mapping medical places in Oporto in the twentieth century in order to bring the urban history of medicine and healthcare in Portugal to a large audience, using Oporto as a case study. This analysis is consistent with the SDS's 2030 goals for policy guidance for heritage and development actors. As a result, it is critical to begin this research in order to place on the political agenda the preservation of Portuguese culture's history, memory, and heritage, particularly the medical culture, which is one of the most important drivers of civilizational development. To understand the evolution of medical care in urban history, we will conduct archive research (manuals, treatises, reports, periodic journals, newspapers, etc.) and interviews with key actors from medical institutions and medical museums. The findings of this study will be used to develop medical itineraries for inclusion in touristic agendas in Portugal and abroad, to include Portuguese medicine in global roadmaps, and to promote the preservation of the most iconic places of health care and medical heritage, as well as tools to promote social cohesion, dialogue among people, and "sense of place" globally.

Keywords: medical itineraries, history of medicine, urban history, Oporto

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169 Analysing the Behaviour of Local Hurst Exponent and Lyapunov Exponent for Prediction of Market Crashes

Authors: Shreemoyee Sarkar, Vikhyat Chadha

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In this paper, the local fractal properties and chaotic properties of financial time series are investigated by calculating two exponents, the Local Hurst Exponent: LHE and Lyapunov Exponent in a moving time window of a financial series.y. For the purpose of this paper, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500, two of the major indices of United States have been considered. The behaviour of the above-mentioned exponents prior to some major crashes (1998 and 2008 crashes in S&P 500 and 2002 and 2008 crashes in DIJA) is discussed. Also, the optimal length of the window for obtaining the best possible results is decided. Based on the outcomes of the above, an attempt is made to predict the crashes and accuracy of such an algorithm is decided.

Keywords: local hurst exponent, lyapunov exponent, market crash prediction, time series chaos, time series local fractal properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 123