Search results for: Bayesian Model Averaging

Authors: Elnaz Lashgari, Emel Demircan

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Electromyography (EMG) is one of the most important interfaces between humans and robots for rehabilitation. Decoding this signal helps to recognize muscle activation and converts it into smooth motion for the robots. Detecting each muscle’s pattern during walking and running is vital for improving the quality of a patient’s life. In this study, EMG data from 10 muscles in 10 subjects at 4 different speeds were analyzed. EMG signals are nonlinear with high dimensionality. To deal with this challenge, we extracted some features in time-frequency domain and used manifold learning and Laplacian Eigenmaps algorithm to find the intrinsic features that represent data in low-dimensional space. We then used the Bayesian classifier to identify various patterns of EMG signals for different muscles across a range of running speeds. The best result for vastus medialis muscle corresponds to 97.87±0.69 for sensitivity and 88.37±0.79 for specificity with 97.07±0.29 accuracy using Bayesian classifier. The results of this study provide important insight into human movement and its application for robotics research.

Keywords: electromyography, manifold learning, ISOMAP, Laplacian Eigenmaps, locally linear embedding

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Authors: Paul Rowley, Adam Thirkill, Nick Doylend, Philip Leicester, Becky Gough

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The dynamic performance of all energy generation technologies is impacted to varying degrees by the stochastic properties of the wider system within which the generation technology is located. This stochasticity can include the varying nature of ambient renewable energy resources such as wind or solar radiation, or unpredicted changes in energy demand which impact upon the operational behaviour of thermal generation technologies. An understanding of these stochastic impacts are especially important in contexts such as highly distributed (or embedded) generation, where an understanding of issues affecting the individual or aggregated performance of high numbers of relatively small generators is especially important, such as in ESCO projects. Probabilistic evaluation of monitored or simulated performance data is one technique which can provide an insight into the dynamic performance characteristics of generating systems, both in a prognostic sense (such as the prediction of future performance at the project’s design stage) as well as in a diagnostic sense (such as in the real-time analysis of underperforming systems). In this work, we describe the development, application and outcomes of a new approach to the acquisition of datasets suitable for use in the subsequent performance and impact analysis (including the use of Bayesian approaches) for a number of distributed generation technologies. The application of the approach is illustrated using a number of case studies involving domestic and small commercial scale photovoltaic, solar thermal and natural gas boiler installations, and the results as presented show that the methodology offers significant advantages in terms of plant efficiency prediction or diagnosis, along with allied environmental and social impacts such as greenhouse gas emission reduction or fuel affordability.

Keywords: renewable energy, dynamic performance simulation, Bayesian analysis, distributed generation

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Authors: J. J. Vargas, N. Prieto, L. A. Toro

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Control charts are commonly used to monitor processes involving either variable or attribute of quality characteristics and determining the control limits as a critical task for quality engineers to improve the processes. Nonetheless, in some applications it is necessary to include an estimation of efficiency. In this paper, the ability to define the efficiency of an industrial process was added to a control chart by means of incorporating a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. In depth, a Bayesian estimation was performed to calculate the posterior probability distribution of parameters as means and variance and covariance matrix. This technique allows to analyse the data set without the need of using the hypothetical large sample implied in the problem and to be treated as an approximation to the finite sample distribution. A rejection simulation method was carried out to generate random variables from the parameter functions. Each resulting vector was used by stochastic DEA model during several cycles for establishing the distribution of each efficiency measures for each DMU (decision making units). A control limit was calculated with model obtained and if a condition of a low level efficiency of DMU is presented, system efficiency is out of control. In the efficiency calculated a global optimum was reached, which ensures model reliability.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, DEA, Multivariate control chart, rejection simulation method

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Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

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Authors: Walaa Diab, Baher Atlam, Nadia El Nimer

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Egypt faces many obvious economic challenges, and it is so clear that a real economic transformation is needed to address those problems, especially after the recent decisions of floating the Egyptian pound and the gradual subsidy cuts that are trying to meet the needed conditions to get the IMF support of (a £12bn loan) for its economic reform program. Following the post-2008 revival of the interest in the fiscal policy and its vital role in speeding up or slowing down the economic growth. Here comes the value of this paper as it seeks to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Egypt by applying A Bayesian SVAR Approach. The study uses the Bayesian method because it includes the prior information and no relevant information is omitted and so it is well suited for rational, evidence-based decision-making. Since the study aims to define the effects of fiscal policy shocks in Egypt to help the decision-makers in determining the proper means to correct the structural problems in the Egyptian economy, it has to study the period of 1990s economic reform, but unfortunately; the available data is on an annual frequency. Thus, it uses annual time series to study the period 1991: 2005 And quarterly data over the period 2006–2016. It uses a set of six main variables includes government expenditure and net tax revenues as fiscal policy arms affecting real GDP, unemployment, inflation and the interest rate. The study also tries to assess the 'crowding out' effects by considering the effects of government spending and government revenue shocks on the composition of GDP, namely, on private consumption and private investment. Last but not least the study provides its policy implications regarding the needed role of fiscal policy in Egypt in the upcoming economic reform building on the results it concludes from the previous reform program.

Keywords: fiscal policy, government spending, structural vector autoregression, taxation

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Authors: Md. Rashidul Hasan, Atikur Rahman Baizid

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The Bayesian estimation approach is a non-classical estimation technique in statistical inference and is very useful in real world situation. The aim of this paper is to study the Bayes estimators of the parameter of exponential distribution under different loss functions and then compared among them as well as with the classical estimator named maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In our real life, we always try to minimize the loss and we also want to gather some prior information (distribution) about the problem to solve it accurately. Here the gamma prior is used as the prior distribution of exponential distribution for finding the Bayes estimator. In our study, we also used different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as squared error loss function, quadratic loss function, modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function and non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function. Finally, mean square error (MSE) of the estimators are obtained and then presented graphically.

Keywords: Bayes estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function, Squared Error (SE) loss function, non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function

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Authors: Jude Opara, Esemokumo Perewarebo Akpos

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This paper is on non-parametric linear regression over its parametric counterparts with large sample size. Data set on anthropometric measurement of primary school pupils was taken for the analysis. The study used 50 randomly selected pupils for the study. The set of data was subjected to normality test, and it was discovered that the residuals are not normally distributed (i.e. they do not follow a Gaussian distribution) for the commonly used least squares regression method for fitting an equation into a set of (x,y)-data points using the Anderson-Darling technique. The algorithms for the nonparametric Theil’s regression are stated in this paper as well as its parametric OLS counterpart. The use of a programming language software known as “R Development” was used in this paper. From the analysis, the result showed that there exists a significant relationship between the response and the explanatory variable for both the parametric and non-parametric regression. To know the efficiency of one method over the other, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used, and it is discovered that the nonparametric regression performs better than its parametric regression counterparts due to their lower values in both the AIC and BIC. The study however recommends that future researchers should study a similar work by examining the presence of outliers in the data set, and probably expunge it if detected and re-analyze to compare results.

Keywords: Theil’s regression, Bayesian information criterion, Akaike information criterion, OLS

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Authors: Carlos Arias-Alcaide, Cristina Soguero-Ruiz, Paloma Santos-Álvarez, Adrián García-Romero, Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez

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Analysing clinical data with computers in such a way that have an impact on the practitioners’ workflow is a challenge nowadays. This paper provides a first approach for monitoring the health status of COVID-19 patients through the use of some biomarkers (blood tests) and the simplest Naïve Bayes classifier. Data of two Spanish hospitals were considered, showing the potential of our approach to estimate reasonable posterior probabilities even some days before the event.

Keywords: Bayesian model, blood biomarkers, classification, health tracing, machine learning, posterior probability

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Authors: Suriya

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Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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Authors: Umberto Platini

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This paper analyses the role of government fragmentation as predictor of the use of emergency decrees in parliamentary democracies. In particular, it focuses on the relationship between ideological divisiveness within cabinets and the choice by executives to issue emergency decrees rather initiating ordinary legislative procedures. A Bayesian multilevel analysis conducted on the population of government-initiated legislation in Italy between 1996 and 2018 finds significant evidence that those legislative proposals which are further away from the ideological centre of gravity of the executive are around three times more likely to be issued as emergency decrees. Likewise, legislative projects regulating more contentious policy areas are significantly more likely to be issued by decree. However, for more contentious issues the importance of ideological distance as a predictor diminishes. This evidence suggests that cabinets prefer decrees to ordinary legislative procedures when they expect that the bargaining environment in Parliament is more hostile. These results persist regardless of the fluctuations of the political-economic cycle. Their robustness is also tested against a battery of controls and against fixed effects both at the government level and at the legislature level.

Keywords: Bayesian multilevel logit models, executive action, executive decrees, ideology, legislative studies, polarization

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Authors: Adandé Belarmain Fandohan

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Climate change has become a major concern globally, particularly in rural communities that have to find rapid coping solutions. Several vulnerability assessment approaches have been developed in the last decades. This comes along with a higher risk for different methods to result in different conclusions, thereby making comparisons difficult and decision-making non-consistent across areas. The effect of methods and computational approaches on estimates of people’s vulnerability was assessed using data collected from the Gambia. Twenty-four indicators reflecting vulnerability components: (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were selected for this purpose. Data were collected through household surveys and key informant interviews. One hundred and fifteen respondents were surveyed across six communities and two administrative districts. Results were compared over three computational approaches: the maximum value transformation normalization, the z-score transformation normalization, and simple averaging. Regardless of the approaches used, communities that have high exposure to climate change and extreme events were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the vulnerability was strongly related to the socio-economic characteristics of farmers. The survey evidenced variability in vulnerability among communities and administrative districts. Comparing output across approaches, overall, people in the study area were found to be highly vulnerable using the simple average and maximum value transformation, whereas they were only moderately vulnerable using the z-score transformation approach. It is suggested that assessment approach-induced discrepancies be accounted for in international debates to harmonize/standardize assessment approaches to the end of making outputs comparable across regions. This will also likely increase the relevance of decision-making for adaptation policies.

Keywords: maximum value transformation, simple averaging, vulnerability assessment, West Africa, z-score transformation

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Authors: Alex Fedoseyev

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This study investigates a generalized hydrodynamic equation (GHE) simplified model for the simulation of turbulent flow over a two-dimensional backward-facing step (BFS) at Reynolds number Re=132000. The GHE were derived from the generalized Boltzmann equation (GBE). GBE was obtained by first principles from the chain of Bogolubov kinetic equations and considers particles of finite dimensions. The GHE has additional terms, temporal and spatial fluctuations, compared to the Navier-Stokes equations (NSE). These terms have a timescale multiplier τ, and the GHE becomes the NSE when $\tau$ is zero. The nondimensional τ is a product of the Reynolds number and the squared length scale ratio, τ=Re*(l/L)², where l is the apparent Kolmogorov length scale, and L is a hydrodynamic length scale. The BFS flow modeling results obtained by 2D calculations cannot match the experimental data for Re>450. One or two additional equations are required for the turbulence model to be added to the NSE, which typically has two to five parameters to be tuned for specific problems. It is shown that the GHE does not require an additional turbulence model, whereas the turbulent velocity results are in good agreement with the experimental results. A review of several studies on the simulation of flow over the BFS from 1980 to 2023 is provided. Most of these studies used different turbulence models when Re>1000. In this study, the 2D turbulent flow over a BFS with height H=L/3 (where L is the channel height) at Reynolds number Re=132000 was investigated using numerical solutions of the GHE (by a finite-element method) and compared to the solutions from the Navier-Stokes equations, k–ε turbulence model, and experimental results. The comparison included the velocity profiles at X/L=5.33 (near the end of the recirculation zone, available from the experiment), recirculation zone length, and velocity flow field. The mean velocity of NSE was obtained by averaging the solution over the number of time steps. The solution with a standard k −ε model shows a velocity profile at X/L=5.33, which has no backward flow. A standard k−ε model underpredicts the experimental recirculation zone length X/L=7.0∓0.5 by a substantial amount of 20-25%, and a more sophisticated turbulence model is needed for this problem. The obtained data confirm that the GHE results are in good agreement with the experimental results for turbulent flow over two-dimensional BFS. A turbulence model was not required in this case. The computations were stable. The solution time for the GHE is the same or less than that for the NSE and significantly less than that for the NSE with the turbulence model. The proposed approach was limited to 2D and only one Reynolds number. Further work will extend this approach to 3D flow and a higher Re.

Keywords: backward-facing step, comparison with experimental data, generalized hydrodynamic equations, separation, reattachment, turbulent flow

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Authors: Sara ElElimy, Samir Moustafa

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Mobile network operators start to face many challenges in the digital era, especially with high demands from customers. Since mobile network operators are considered a source of big data, traditional techniques are not effective with new era of big data, Internet of things (IoT) and 5G; as a result, handling effectively different big datasets becomes a vital task for operators with the continuous growth of data and moving from long term evolution (LTE) to 5G. So, there is an urgent need for effective Big data analytics to predict future demands, traffic, and network performance to full fill the requirements of the fifth generation of mobile network technology. In this paper, we introduce data science techniques using machine learning and deep learning algorithms: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Bayesian-based curve fitting, and recurrent neural network (RNN) are employed for a data-driven application to mobile network operators. The main framework included in models are identification parameters of each model, estimation, prediction, and final data-driven application of this prediction from business and network performance applications. These models are applied to Telecom Italia Big Data challenge call detail records (CDRs) datasets. The performance of these models is found out using a specific well-known evaluation criteria shows that ARIMA (machine learning-based model) is more accurate as a predictive model in such a dataset than the RNN (deep learning model).

Keywords: big data analytics, machine learning, CDRs, 5G

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Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

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Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this work, a new nonlinear model will be introduced. The model is in the state-space form. The nonlinearity of this model is in the state equation where the state vector is multiplied by its self. This technique makes our model generalizes many famous models as Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz model which have many applications in the real life. We will apply our new model to estimate the wind speed by using a new nonlinear estimator which suitable to work with our model.

Keywords: nonlinear systems, state-space model, Kronecker product, nonlinear estimator

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Authors: Cormac Reale, Luke J. Prendergast, Kenneth Gavin

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While significant improvements have been made in axial pile design methods over recent years, the influence of soils natural variability has not been adequately accounted for within them. Soil variability is a crucial parameter to consider as it can account for large variations in pile capacity across the same site. This paper seeks to address this knowledge deficit, by demonstrating how soil spatial variability can be accommodated into existing cone penetration test (CPT) based pile design methods, in the form of layered non-homogeneous random fields. These random fields model the scope of a given property’s variance and define how it varies spatially. A Monte Carlo analysis of the pile will be performed taking into account parameter uncertainty and spatial variability, described using the measured scales of fluctuation. The results will be discussed in light of Eurocode 7 and the effect of spatial averaging on design capacities will be analysed.

Keywords: pile axial design, reliability, spatial variability, CPT

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Authors: M. Abdullah, Al-Wadud

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Sensor-based activity recognition systems usually accounts which sensors have been activated to perform an activity. The system then combines the conditional probabilities of those sensors to represent different activities and takes the decision based on that. However, the information about the sensors which are not activated may also be of great help in deciding which activity has been performed. This paper proposes an approach where the sensory data related to both usage and non-usage of objects are utilized to make the classification of activities. Experimental results also show the promising performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Naïve Bayesian, based classification, activity recognition, sensor data, object-usage model

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Authors: A. Elmethnani, A. Jroud

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This coastal crude oil refinery is situated north of a big city west of Tripoli; the city then could be highly prone to downwind refinery emissions where the NNE wind direction is prevailing through most seasons of the year. Furthermore, due to the absence of an air quality monitoring network and scarce emission data available for the neighboring community, nearby residents have serious worries about the impacts of the oil refining operations on local air quality. In responding to these concerns, a short term survey has performed for three consecutive days where a semi-continues mobile monitoring approach has developed effectively in this study; the monitoring station (Compact AQM 65 AeroQual) was mounted on a vehicle to move quickly between locations, measurements of 10 minutes averaging of 60 seconds then been taken at each fixed sampling point. The downwind ambient concentration of CO, H₂S, NOₓ, NO₂, SO₂, PM₁, PM₂.₅ PM₁₀, and TSP were measured at carefully chosen sampling locations, ranging from 200m nearby the fence-line passing through the city center up to 4.7 km east to attain best spatial coverage. Results showed worrying levels of PM₂.₅ PM₁₀, and TSP at one sampling location in the city center, southeast of the refinery site, with an average mean of 16.395μg/m³, 33.021μg/m³, and 42.426μg/m³ respectively, which could be attributed to road traffic. No significant concentrations have been detected for other pollutants of interest over the study area, as levels observed for CO, SO₂, H₂S, NOₓ, and NO₂ haven’t respectively exceeded 1.707 ppm, 0.021ppm, 0.134 ppm, 0.4582 ppm, and 0.0018 ppm, which was at the same sampling locations as well. Although it wasn’t possible to compare the results with the Libyan air quality standards due to the difference in the averaging time period, the technique was adequate for the baseline air quality screening procedure. Overall, findings primarily suggest modeling of dispersion of the refinery emissions to assess the likely impact and spatial-temporal distribution of air pollutants.

Keywords: air quality, mobil monitoring, oil refinery

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Authors: Baladitya Swaika, Rahul Khatry

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Computer Adaptive Tests (CATs) is one of the most efficient ways for testing the cognitive abilities of students. CATs are based on Item Response Theory (IRT) which is based on item selection and ability estimation using statistical methods of maximum information selection/selection from posterior and maximum-likelihood (ML)/maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators respectively. This study aims at combining both classical and Bayesian approaches to IRT to create a dataset which is then fed to a neural network which automates the process of ability estimation and then comparing it to traditional CAT models designed using IRT. This study uses python as the base coding language, pymc for statistical modelling of the IRT and scikit-learn for neural network implementations. On creation of the model and on comparison, it is found that the Neural Network based model performs 7-10% worse than the IRT model for score estimations. Although performing poorly, compared to the IRT model, the neural network model can be beneficially used in back-ends for reducing time complexity as the IRT model would have to re-calculate the ability every-time it gets a request whereas the prediction from a neural network could be done in a single step for an existing trained Regressor. This study also proposes a new kind of framework whereby the neural network model could be used to incorporate feature sets, other than the normal IRT feature set and use a neural network’s capacity of learning unknown functions to give rise to better CAT models. Categorical features like test type, etc. could be learnt and incorporated in IRT functions with the help of techniques like logistic regression and can be used to learn functions and expressed as models which may not be trivial to be expressed via equations. This kind of a framework, when implemented would be highly advantageous in psychometrics and cognitive assessments. This study gives a brief overview as to how neural networks can be used in adaptive testing, not only by reducing time-complexity but also by being able to incorporate newer and better datasets which would eventually lead to higher quality testing.

Keywords: computer adaptive tests, item response theory, machine learning, neural networks

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Authors: Priya Kedia, Kiranmoy Das

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There is a rich literature on variable selection in regression setting. However, most of these methods assume normality for the response variable under consideration for implementing the methodology and establishing the statistical properties of the estimates. In many real applications, the distribution for the response variable may be non-Gaussian, and one might be interested in finding the best subset of covariates at some predetermined quantile level. We develop dynamic Bayesian approach for variable selection in quantile regression framework. We use a zero-inflated mixture prior for the regression coefficients, and consider the asymmetric Laplace distribution for the response variable for modeling different quantiles of its distribution. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for our computation. Our proposed approach is assessed through extensive simulation studies, and real application of the proposed approach is also illustrated. We consider the data from health and retirement study conducted by the University of Michigan, and select the important predictors when the outcome of interest is out-of-pocket medical cost, which is considered as an important measure for financial risk. Our analysis finds important predictors at different quantiles of the outcome, and thus enhance our understanding on the effects of different predictors on the out-of-pocket medical cost.

Keywords: variable selection, quantile regression, Gibbs sampler, asymmetric Laplace distribution

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Authors: Syed Talib Abbas Raza, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Saleem Abdullah

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This paper presents interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy soft sets based TOPSIS method for group decision making. The interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy soft set is a mutation of an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set and soft set. In group decision making problems IVIFSS makes the process much more algebraically elegant. We have used weighted arithmetic averaging operator for aggregating the information and define a new Hybrid Score Function as metric tool for comparison between interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy values. In an illustrative example we have applied the developed method to a criminological problem. We have developed a group decision making model for integrating the imprecise and hesitant evaluations of multiple law enforcement agencies working on target killing cases in the country.

Keywords: group decision making, interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy soft set, TOPSIS, score function, criminology

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Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

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Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Ailing Yang, Penghan Song, Aihua Cai

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The nonlinear maneuvering target tracking problem is mainly a state estimation problem when the target motion model is uncertain. Traditional solutions include Kalman filtering based on Bayesian filtering framework and extended Kalman filtering. However, these methods need prior knowledge such as kinematics model and state system distribution, and their performance is poor in state estimation of nonprior complex dynamic systems. Therefore, in view of the problems existing in traditional algorithms, a convolution LSTM target state estimation (SAConvLSTM-SE) algorithm based on Self-Attention memory (SAM) is proposed to learn the historical motion state of the target and the error distribution information measured at the current time. The measured track point data of airborne radar are processed into data sets. After supervised training, the data-driven deep neural network based on SAConvLSTM can directly obtain the target state at the next moment. Through experiments on two different maneuvering targets, we find that the network has stronger robustness and better tracking accuracy than the existing tracking methods.

Keywords: maneuvering target, state estimation, Kalman filter, LSTM, self-attention

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Authors: Kaleem Kashif, Tayyaba Anam, Yizhi Wu

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This paper introduces a methodology for advancing Italian speech vowels landmark detection within the distinctive feature-based speech recognition domain. Leveraging the legacy tool 'xkl' by integrating combined convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), the study presents a comprehensive enhancement to the 'xkl' legacy software. This integration incorporates re-assigned spectrogram methodologies, enabling meticulous acoustic analysis. Simultaneously, our proposed model, integrating combined CNNs and RNNs, demonstrates unprecedented precision and robustness in landmark detection. The augmentation of re-assigned spectrogram fusion within the 'xkl' software signifies a meticulous advancement, particularly enhancing precision related to vowel formant estimation. This augmentation catalyzes unparalleled accuracy in landmark detection, resulting in a substantial performance leap compared to conventional methods. The proposed model emerges as a state-of-the-art solution in the distinctive feature-based speech recognition systems domain. In the realm of deep learning, a synergistic integration of combined CNNs and RNNs is introduced, endowed with specialized temporal embeddings, harnessing self-attention mechanisms, and positional embeddings. The proposed model allows it to excel in capturing intricate dependencies within Italian speech vowels, rendering it highly adaptable and sophisticated in the distinctive feature domain. Furthermore, our advanced temporal modeling approach employs Bayesian temporal encoding, refining the measurement of inter-landmark intervals. Comparative analysis against state-of-the-art models reveals a substantial improvement in accuracy, highlighting the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology. Upon rigorous testing on a database (LaMIT) speech recorded in a silent room by four Italian native speakers, the landmark detector demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving a 95% true detection rate and a 10% false detection rate. A majority of missed landmarks were observed in proximity to reduced vowels. These promising results underscore the robust identifiability of landmarks within the speech waveform, establishing the feasibility of employing a landmark detector as a front end in a speech recognition system. The synergistic integration of re-assigned spectrogram fusion, CNNs, RNNs, and Bayesian temporal encoding not only signifies a significant advancement in Italian speech vowels landmark detection but also positions the proposed model as a leader in the field. The model offers distinct advantages, including unparalleled accuracy, adaptability, and sophistication, marking a milestone in the intersection of deep learning and distinctive feature-based speech recognition. This work contributes to the broader scientific community by presenting a methodologically rigorous framework for enhancing landmark detection accuracy in Italian speech vowels. The integration of cutting-edge techniques establishes a foundation for future advancements in speech signal processing, emphasizing the potential of the proposed model in practical applications across various domains requiring robust speech recognition systems.

Keywords: landmark detection, acoustic analysis, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network

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Authors: Roger L. Goodwin

Abstract:

This paper presents a rank correlation curve. The traditional correlation coefficient is valid for both continuous variables and for integer variables using rank statistics. Since the correlation coefficient has already been established in rank statistics by Spearman, such a calculation can be extended to the correlation curve. This paper presents two survey questions. The survey collected non-continuous variables. We will show weak to moderate correlation. Obviously, one question has a negative effect on the other. A review of the qualitative literature can answer which question and why. The rank correlation curve shows which collection of responses has a positive slope and which collection of responses has a negative slope. Such information is unavailable from the flat, "first-glance" correlation statistics.

Keywords: Bayesian estimation, regression model, rank statistics, correlation, correlation curve

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Authors: Armin Rahimi

Abstract:

In this study, we reveal co-seismic signals of two combined earthquakes, the 2006 Mw8.3 thrust and 2007 Mw8.1 normal fault earthquakes of the central Kuril Islands from GRACE observations. We compute monthly full gravitational gradient tensor in the local north-east-down frame for Kuril Islands earthquakes without spatial averaging and de-striping filters. Some of the gravitational gradient components (e.g. ΔVxx, ΔVxz) enhance high frequency components of the earth gravity field and reveal more details in spatial and temporal domain. Therefore that preseismic activity can be better illustrated. We show that the positive-negative-positive co-seismic ΔVxx due to the Kuril Islands earthquakes ranges from − 0.13 to + 0.11 milli Eötvös, and ΔVxz shows a positive-negative-positive pattern ranges from − 0.16 to + 0.13 milli Eötvös, agree well with seismic model predictions.

Keywords: GRACE observation, gravitational gradient changes, Kuril island earthquakes, PSGRN/PSCMP

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Authors: Bezhan Ghvaberidze

Abstract:

A multiple criteria optimization approach for the solution of the Fuzzy Vehicle Routing Problem (FVRP) is proposed. For the possibility environment the levels of movements between customers are calculated by the constructed simulation interactive algorithm. The first criterion of the bi-criteria optimization problem - minimization of the expectation of total fuzzy travel time on closed routes is constructed for the FVRP. A new, second criterion – maximization of feasibility of movement on the closed routes is constructed by the Choquet finite averaging operator. The FVRP is reduced to the bi-criteria partitioning problem for the so called “promising” routes which were selected from the all admissible closed routes. The convenient selection of the “promising” routes allows us to solve the reduced problem in the real-time computing. For the numerical solution of the bi-criteria partitioning problem the -constraint approach is used. An exact algorithm is implemented based on D. Knuth’s Dancing Links technique and the algorithm DLX. The Main objective was to present the new approach for FVRP, when there are some difficulties while moving on the roads. This approach is called FVRP for extreme conditions (FVRP-EC) on the roads. Also, the aim of this paper was to construct the solving model of the constructed FVRP. Results are illustrated on the numerical example where all Pareto-optimal solutions are found. Also, an approach for more complex model FVRP with time windows was developed. A numerical example is presented in which optimal routes are constructed for extreme conditions on the roads.

Keywords: combinatorial optimization, Fuzzy Vehicle routing problem, multiple objective programming, possibility theory

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Recurrent infant diarrhea is studied using daily data collected in Salvador, Brazil over one year and three months. A logistic regression model is fitted instead of Aalen's additive model using the same covariates that were used in the analysis with the additive model. The model gives reasonably similar results to that using additive regression model. In addition, the problem with the estimated conditional probabilities not being constrained between zero and one in additive model is solved here. Also martingale residuals that have been used to judge the goodness of fit for the additive model are shown to be useful for judging the goodness of fit of the logistic model.

Keywords: additive model, cumulative probabilities, infant diarrhoea, recurrent event

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Authors: Mustapha Babatunde, Bassam Tawabini, Ole John Nielson

Abstract:

Air dispersion (AD) models such as AERMOD are important tools for estimating the environmental impacts of air pollutant emissions into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. The outcome of these models is significantly linked to the climate condition like air temperature, which is expected to differ in the future due to the global warming phenomenon. With projections from scientific sources of impending changes to the future climate of Saudi Arabia, especially anticipated temperature rise, there is a potential direct impact on the dispersion patterns of air pollutants results from AD models. To our knowledge, no similar studies were carried out in Saudi Arabia to investigate such impact. Therefore, this research investigates the effects of climate temperature change on air quality in the Dammam Metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia, using AERMOD coupled with Station data using Sulphur dioxide (SO2) – as a model air pollutant. The research uses AERMOD model to predict the SO2 dispersion trends on the surrounding area. Emissions from five (5) industrial stacks, on twenty-eight (28) receptors in the study area were considered for the climate period (2010-2019) and future period of mid-century (2040-2060) under different scenarios of elevated temperature profiles (+1oC, + 3oC and + 5oC) across averaging time periods of 1hr, 4hr and 8hr. Results showed that levels of SO2 at the receiving sites under current and simulated future climactic condition fall within the allowable limit of WHO and KSA air quality standards. Results also revealed that the projected rise in temperature would only have mild increment on the SO2 concentration levels. The average increase of SO2 levels were 0.04%, 0.14%, and 0.23% due to the temperature increase of 1, 3, and 5 degrees respectively. In conclusion, the outcome of this work elucidates the degree of the effects of global warming and climate changes phenomena on air quality and can help the policymakers in their decision-making, given the significant health challenges associated with ambient air pollution in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: air quality, sulphur dioxide, global warming, air dispersion model

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