Search results for: daily probability model

Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.

Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity

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Authors: Christoph Ramsauer, Jaydeep Karandikar, Tony Schmitz, Friedrich Bleicher

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Machining stability is an important limitation to discrete part machining. In this work, a networked implementation of milling stability optimization with Bayesian learning is presented. The milling process was monitored with a wireless sensory tool holder instrumented with an accelerometer at the Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria. The recorded data from a milling test cut is used to classify the cut as stable or unstable based on the frequency analysis. The test cut result is fed to a Bayesian stability learning algorithm at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The algorithm calculates the probability of stability as a function of axial depth of cut and spindle speed and recommends the parameters for the next test cut. The iterative process between two transatlantic locations repeats until convergence to a stable optimal process parameter set is achieved.

Keywords: machining stability, machine learning, sensor, optimization

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Authors: Farideh Doostan, Sahar Mohseni Taklloo, Mohammad Nosrati

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Chronic diseases are non-communicable and largely preventable by lifestyle changes including healthy diet consumption. They are the most common cause of death in the world and projected to increase by 15% globally between 2010 and 2020.The hazardous effects of behavioral and dietary risk factors on chronic disease have been established in prospective cohort studies and randomized trials. Because of some changes occur in college students’ lifestyle, assessment of dietary risk factors is important in these populations. Objective: This research was the first study that conducted to evaluate dietary intakes of Kermanian college students with WHO/FAO nutritional objectives. Material and Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, 229 healthy college students of health faculty in Kerman University of Medical Sciences that do not intake any medical drugs were recruited using multistage sampling in 2013.Usual dietary intake was collected using a valid Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) and diet quality was calculated based on WHO nutrient goals. To analysis of data between two groups, independent sample t. test and man whitney were applied. Results: Two hundred and twenty-nine college students; 151 females (65.9%) and 78 males (34.1%), the mean age of 21.9 years were studied. The mean of the Body Mass Index (Kg/m2) and Waist Circumference (cm) in males were 22.34 ±3.52 and 80.76±11.16 and in females were 21.19±2.62 and 73.67±7.65 respectively. Mean of daily cholesterol intake in males was significantly more than females (305±101 VS 268±98; P=0.008) and more than WHO/FAO recommendation (less than 300 mg/day). The mean of daily sodium intake in men and women were 10.4±1 and 10.9±5.3 respectively. These amounts were more than WHO/FAO recommendation (less than 2g/day). In addition, women were consumed fruit and vegetables more than men (839±336 VS 638±281; p ‹ 0.001) and these amounts were more than WHO/FAO recommendation (more than 400g/day) in both groups. Other intake indices were in the range of WHO/FAO recommendations, So that Percent of calories intake from total fat, saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids and added sugar were in compliance with WHO/FAO recommendations. Conclusion: Cholesterol intake in men and sodium intake in all participants were more than WHO/FAO recommendation. These dietary components are the most important causes of cardiovascular disease (one of the main causes of death in our population). These results indicated that proper nutritional education and interventions are needed in this population.

Keywords: college students, food intake, WHO /FAO nutrient intake goals, Kerman

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Authors: Mohammad Borhani, Ahmad Jamshidzaei, Mehdi Koohsari

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The study of climate has captivated human interest throughout history. In response to this fascination, individuals historically organized their daily activities in alignment with prevailing climatic conditions and seasonal variations. Understanding the elements and specific climatic parameters of each region, such as precipitation, which directly impacts human life, is essential because, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in heavy rainfall in various parts of the world attributed to the effects of climate change. Climate prediction models suggest a future scenario characterized by an increase in severe precipitation events and related floods on a global scale. This is a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions causing changes in the natural precipitation patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported global warming in 2001. The average global temperature has shown an increasing trend since 1861. In the 20th century, this increase has been between (0/2 ± 0/6) °C. The present study focused on examining the trend of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation in Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. The study employed data obtained from 13 precipitation measurement stations managed by the Iran Water Resources Management Company, encompassing daily precipitation records spanning the period from 1997 to 2016. The results indicated that the total monthly precipitation at the studied stations in Sistan and Baluchestan province follows a sinusoidal trend. The highest intense precipitation was observed in January, February, and March, while the lowest occurred in September, October, and then November. The investigation of the trend of seasonal precipitation in this province showed that precipitation follows an upward trend in the autumn season, reaching its peak in winter, and then shows a decreasing trend in spring and summer. Also, the examination of average precipitation indicated that the highest yearly precipitation occurred in 1997 and then in 2004, while the lowest annual precipitation took place between 1999 and 2001. The analysis of the annual precipitation trend demonstrates a decrease in precipitation from 1997 to 2016 in Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Keywords: climate change, extreme precipitation, greenhouse gas, trend analysis

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Authors: Tina Wu, Andrew Martin

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The expansion of the Internet of Things (IoT) brings a new level of threat. Attacks on IoT are already being used by criminals to form botnets, launch Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) and distribute malware. This opens a whole new digital forensic arena to develop forensic methodologies in order to have the capability to investigate IoT related crimes. However, existing proposed IoT forensic models are still premature requiring further improvement and validation, many lack details on the acquisition and analysis phase. This paper proposes an enhanced theoretical IoT digital forensic model focused on identifying and acquiring the main sources of evidence in a methodical way. In addition, this paper presents a theoretical acquisition framework of the different stages required in order to be capable of acquiring evidence from IoT devices.

Keywords: acquisition, Internet of Things, model, zoning

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Authors: Julio Franco

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Water is used, directly and indirectly, in all activities of the construction productive chain, making it a subject of worldwide relevance for sustainable development. The ongoing expansion of urban areas leads to a high demand for natural resources, which in turn cause significant environmental impacts. The present work proposes the application of BIM tools to assist the measurement of the water footprint (WF) of civil construction supplies. Data was inserted into the model as element properties, allowing them to be analyzed by element or in the whole model. The WF calculation was automated using parameterization in Autodesk Revit software. Parameterization was associated to the materials of each element in the model so that any changes in these elements directly alter the results of WF calculations. As a case study, we applied into a building project model to test the parameterized calculus of WF. Results show that the proposed parameterization successfully automated WF calculations according to design changes. We envision this tool to assist the measurement and rationalization of the environmental impact in terms of WF of construction projects.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, sustainable development, water footprint

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Authors: M. Duk, L. Grabowski, P. Magryta

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Today's very important element relating to air transport is the environment impact issues. Nowadays there are no emissions standards for turbine and piston engines used in air transport. However, it should be noticed that the environmental effect in the form of exhaust gases from aircraft engines should be as small as possible. For this purpose, R&D centers often use special software to simulate and to estimate the negative effect of engine working process. For cooperation between the Lublin University of Technology and the Polish aviation company WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A., to achieve more effective operation of the ASz62IR engine, one of such tools have been used. The AVL Boost software allows to perform 1D simulations of combustion process of piston engines. ASz62IR is a nine-cylinder aircraft engine in a radial configuration. In order to analyze the impact of its working process on the environment, the mathematical model in the AVL Boost software have been made. This model contains, among others, model of the operation cycle of the cylinders. This model was based on a volume change in combustion chamber according to the reciprocating movement of a piston. The simplifications that all of the pistons move identically was assumed. The changes in cylinder volume during an operating cycle were specified. Those changes were important to determine the energy balance of a cylinder in an internal combustion engine which is fundamental for a model of the operating cycle. The calculations for cylinder thermodynamic state were based on the first law of thermodynamics. The change in the mass in the cylinder was calculated from the sum of inflowing and outflowing masses including: cylinder internal energy, heat from the fuel, heat losses, mass in cylinder, cylinder pressure and volume, blowdown enthalpy, evaporation heat etc. The model assumed that the amount of heat released in combustion process was calculated from the pace of combustion, using Vibe model. For gas exchange, it was also important to consider heat transfer in inlet and outlet channels because of much higher values there than for flow in a straight pipe. This results from high values of heat exchange coefficients and temperature coefficients near valves and valve seats. A Zapf modified model of heat exchange was used. To use the model with the flight scenarios, the impact of flight altitude on engine performance has been analyze. It was assumed that the pressure and temperature at the inlet and outlet correspond to the values resulting from the model for International Standard Atmosphere (ISA). Comparing this model of operation cycle with the others submodels of the ASz62IR engine, it could be noticed, that a full analysis of the performance of the engine, according to the ISA conditions, can be made. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under

Keywords: aviation propulsion, AVL Boost, engine model, operation cycle, aircraft engine

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Authors: Mustafa Rezazada, Takuya Maruyama

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Cars have a strong integration with the human being since its introduction, and this interaction is more evident in the urban context. Therefore, shifting city residents from driving private vehicles to public transits has been a big challenge. Accordingly, carsharing as an innovative, environmentally friendly transport alternative had a significant contribution to this transition so far. It helped to reduce the numbers of household car ownership, declining demand for on-street parking, dropping the numbers of kilometers traveled by car, and affects the future of mobility by decreasing the Green House Gases (GHS) emissions’ and the numbers of new cars to be purchased otherwise. However, majorities of carsharing researches were conducted in highly developed cities, and less attention has been paid to the cities of developing countries. This study is conducted in the Capital of Afghanistan, Kabul to investigate the current transport pattern, user behavior, and to examine the possibility of introducing the carsharing system. This study established a new survey method called Onboard Carsharing Survey OCS. In this survey, the carpooling passengers aboard are interviewed following the Onboard Transit Survey OTS guideline with a few refinements. The survey focuses on respondents’ daily travel behavior and hypothetical stated choice of carsharing opportunities. Moreover, it followed by an aggregate analysis at the end. The survey results indicate the following: two-thirds of the respondents 62% have been carpooling every day since 5 years or more, more than half of the respondents are not satisfied with current modes, besides other attributes the Traffic Congestion, Environment and Insufficient Public Transport were ranked the most critical in daily transportation by survey participants. Moreover, 68.24% of the respondent chose Carsharing over carpooling under different choice game scenarios. Overall, the findings in this research show that Kabul City is a potential underground for the introduction of Carsharing in the future. Taken together, insufficient public transit, dissatisfaction with current modes, and their stated interest will affect the future of carsharing positively in Kabul City. The modal choice in this study is limited to carpooling and carsharing; more choice sets, including bus, cycling, and walking, will have to be added to evaluate further.

Keywords: carsharing, developing countries, Kabul Afghanistan, onboard carsharing survey, transportation, urban planning

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Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

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In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

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Authors: Jaehwan Jung, Sung-Ah Kim

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) provides project stakeholders with various information about property and geometry of entire component as a 3D object-based parametric building model. BIM represents a set of Information and solutions that are expected to improve collaborative work process and quality of the building design. To improve collaboration among project participants, the BIM model should provide the necessary information to remote participants in real time and manage the information in the process. The purpose of this paper is to propose a process model that can apply effective architectural design collaborative work process in architectural design education in BIM-Cloud environment.

Keywords: BIM, cloud computing, collaborative design, digital design education

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Authors: Aqeel Zeid, Hasna Anees, Mohamed Adheeb, Mohamed Rifan, Kalpani Manathunga

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To achieve constructive alignment in a higher education program, a clear set of learning outcomes must be defined. Traditional learning outcome definition techniques such as Bloom’s taxonomy are not written to be utilized by the student. This might be disadvantageous for students in student-centric learning settings where the students are expected to formulate their own learning strategies. To solve the problem, we propose the learning outcome relation and aggregation (LORA) model. To achieve alignment, we developed learning outcome, assessment, and resource authoring tools which help teachers to tag learning outcomes during creation. A pilot study was conducted with an expert panel consisting of experienced professionals in the education domain to evaluate whether the LORA model and tools present an improvement over the traditional methods. The panel unanimously agreed that the model and tools are beneficial and effective. Moreover, it helped them model learning outcomes in a more student centric and descriptive way.

Keywords: learning design, constructive alignment, Bloom’s taxonomy, learning outcome modelling

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Authors: M. Vlahovic

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This paper presents a model of public finances, which combines three concepts: participatory budgeting, crowdfunding and blockchain technology. Participatory budgeting is defined as a process in which community members decide how to spend a part of community’s budget. Crowdfunding is a practice of funding a project by collecting small monetary contributions from a large number of people via an Internet platform. Blockchain technology is a distributed ledger that enables efficient and reliable transactions that are secure and transparent. In this hypothetical model, the government or authorities on local/regional level would set up a platform where they would propose public projects to citizens. Citizens would browse through projects and support or vote for those which they consider justified and necessary. In return, they would be entitled to a tax relief in the amount of their monetary contribution. Since the blockchain technology enables tracking of transactions, it can be used to mitigate corruption, money laundering and lack of transparency in public finances. Models of its application have already been created for e-voting, health records or land registries. By presenting a model of application of blockchain technology in public finances, this paper takes into consideration the potential of blockchain technology to disrupt governments and make processes more democratic, secure, transparent and efficient. The framework for this paper consists of multiple streams of research, including key concepts of direct democracy, public finance (especially the voluntary theory of public finance), information and communication technology, especially blockchain technology and crowdfunding. The framework defines rules of the game, basic conditions for the implementation of the model, benefits, potential problems and development perspectives. As an oversimplified map of a new form of public finances, the proposed model identifies primary factors, that influence the possibility of implementation of the model, and that could be tracked, measured and controlled in case of experimentation with the model.

Keywords: blockchain technology, distributed ledger, participatory budgeting, crowdfunding, direct democracy, internet platform, e-government, public finance

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Authors: Sunghoon Park, Hank Kim, Jinwon An, Sungzoon Cho

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Internet of Things allows one to collect data from facilities which are then used to monitor them and even predict malfunctions in advance. Conventional quality control methods focus on setting a normal range on a sensor value defined between a lower control limit and an upper control limit, and declaring as an anomaly anything falling outside it. However, interactions among sensor values are ignored, thus leading to suboptimal performance. We propose a multivariate approach which takes into account many sensor values at the same time. In particular Gaussian Mixture Model is used which is trained to maximize likelihood value using Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The number of Gaussian component distributions is determined by Bayesian Information Criterion. The negative Log likelihood value is used as an anomaly score. The actual usage scenario goes like a following. For each instance of sensor values from a facility, an anomaly score is computed. If it is larger than a threshold, an alarm will go off and a human expert intervenes and checks the system. A real world data from Building energy system was used to test the model.

Keywords: facility anomaly detection, gaussian mixture model, anomaly score, expectation maximization algorithm

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Authors: Waleed A. Basuliman, Khalid S. AlSaleh, Mohamed Z. Ramadan

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Applying the anthropometric dimensions is considered one of the important factors when designing any human-machine system. In this study, the estimation of anthropometric dimensions has been improved by developing artificial neural network that aims to predict the anthropometric measurements of the male in Saudi Arabia. A total of 1427 Saudi males from age 6 to 60 participated in measuring twenty anthropometric dimensions. These anthropometric measurements are important for designing the majority of work and life applications in Saudi Arabia. The data were collected during 8 months from different locations in Riyadh City. Five of these dimensions were used as predictors variables (inputs) of the model, and the remaining fifteen dimensions were set to be the measured variables (outcomes). The hidden layers have been varied during the structuring stage, and the best performance was achieved with the network structure 6-25-15. The results showed that the developed Neural Network model was significantly able to predict the body dimensions for the population of Saudi Arabia. The network mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were found 0.0348 and 3.225 respectively. The accuracy of the developed neural network was evaluated by compare the predicted outcomes with a multiple regression model. The ANN model performed better and resulted excellent correlation coefficients between the predicted and actual dimensions.

Keywords: artificial neural network, anthropometric measurements, backpropagation, real anthropometric database

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Authors: P.-W. Tsai, C.-Y. Chen, C.-W. Chen

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In this paper, the stability analysis of a GA-Based adaptive fuzzy sliding model controller for a nonlinear system is discussed. First, a nonlinear plant is well-approximated and described with a reference model and a fuzzy model, both involving FLC rules. Then, FLC rules and the consequent parameter are decided on via an Evolved Bat Algorithm (EBA). After this, we guarantee a new tracking performance inequality for the control system. The tracking problem is characterized to solve an eigenvalue problem (EVP). Next, an adaptive fuzzy sliding model controller (AFSMC) is proposed to stabilize the system so as to achieve good control performance. Lyapunov’s direct method can be used to ensure the stability of the nonlinear system. It is shown that the stability analysis can reduce nonlinear systems into a linear matrix inequality (LMI) problem. Finally, a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the control methodology.

Keywords: adaptive fuzzy sliding mode control, Lyapunov direct method, swarm intelligence, evolved bat algorithm

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Authors: Maha Almumaiz, Harry Evdorides

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Change in land value typically occurs when a new interurban road construction causes an increase in accessibility; this change in the adjacent lands values differs according to land characteristics such as geographic location, land use type, land area and sale time (appraisal time). A multiple regression model is obtained to predict the percent change in land value (CLV) based on four independent variables namely land distance from the constructed road, area of land, nature of land use and time from the works completion of the road. The random values of percent change in land value were generated using Microsoft Excel with a range of up to 35%. The trend of change in land value with the four independent variables was determined from the literature references. The statistical analysis and model building process has been made by using the IBM SPSS V23 software. The Regression model suggests, for lands that are located within 3 miles as the straight distance from the road, the percent CLV is between (0-35%) which is depending on many factors including distance from the constructed road, land use, land area and time from works completion of the new road.

Keywords: interurban road, land use types, new road construction, percent CLV, regression model

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Authors: Wafa' Alsharafat, Suhila Farhan Abu-Owida

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Genetic algorithm (GA) is a powerful evolutionary searching technique that is used successfully to solve and optimize problems in different research areas. Genetic Algorithm (GA) considered as one of optimization methods used to solve Travel salesman Problem (TSP). The feasibility of GA in finding a TSP solution is dependent on GA operators; encoding method, population size, termination criteria, in general. In specific, crossover and its probability play a significant role in finding possible solutions for Symmetric TSP (STSP). In addition, the crossover should be determined and enhanced in term reaching optimal or at least near optimal. In this paper, we spot the light on using a modified crossover method called modified sequential constructive crossover and its impact on reaching optimal solution. To justify the relevance of a parameter value in solving the TSP, a set comparative analysis conducted on different crossover methods values.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, crossover, mutation, TSP

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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This paper introduces an original method for guaranteed estimation of the accuracy of an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers. The solution was obtained as a finite closed set of alternative hypotheses, which contains an object of classification with a probability of not less than the specified value. Thus, the classification is represented by a set of hypothetical classes. In this case, the smaller the cardinality of the discrete set of hypothetical classes is, the higher is the classification accuracy. Experiments have shown that if the cardinality of the classifiers ensemble is increased then the cardinality of this set of hypothetical classes is reduced. The problem of the guaranteed estimation of the accuracy of an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers is relevant in the multichannel classification of target events in C-OTDR monitoring systems. Results of suggested approach practical usage to accuracy control in C-OTDR monitoring systems are present.

Keywords: Lipschitz classifiers, confidence set, C-OTDR monitoring, classifiers accuracy, classifiers ensemble

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Authors: Mohammad Ansari, Satinder Mann, Ahmed Ismail

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Primary care patients in Emergency Departments (ED) have been the topic of discussion since 1998 in the United Kingdom. Numerous studies have analysed attendances in EDs retrospectively and suggest that at least one third to fifty percent patients attending ED with problems which could be managed appropriately in General Practice or minor injuries units. The pattern of ED Usage seems to be International. In Australia and many departments in the United States include walk in facilities staffed by physicians on family practice residency programme. It clearly appears in the United Kingdom that EDs have to accept that such patients with primary care problems will attend the ED and facilities will have to be provided to see and treat such patients. Urgent care centres were introduced in the United Kingdom nearly a decade ago to reduce the pressure on EDs. Most of these were situated near pre-existing EDs. Unfortunately these centres failed to have the desired effect of reducing the number of patients visiting EDs, it has been noticed that when more patients were seen in Urgent Care centres there were increased attendances in ED as well. A new model of Urgent Care centre was started in the ED of George Eliot Hospital, Nuneaton, UK. We looked at the working of the centre by looking at the number of patients seen daily against the number of total attendances in the ED. We studied the number and type of patients seen by the Urgent Care Doctor. All the medical records of the patients were seen and the time patients spent in the Urgent Care centre was recorded. The total number of patients seen during this study were 1532. 219 (14.3% ) were seen within our Urgent Care centre. None of the patients waited over four hours to be seen. It has been recognised that primary care patients in the ED are a major part of attendances of the department and unless these patients are seen in Urgent Care centres, overcrowding and long waits cannot been avoided. It has been shown that employing primary care Physicians in Urgent Care centres reduces overall cost because they do not carry out as many investigations as Junior Doctors. In our study over 14% patients were seen by Urgent Care Physicians and none of the patients waited for more than four hours and we feel that care provided to the patients by Urgent Care centre was highly effective and satisfying for the patient.

Keywords: urgent care centres, primary care physicians, overcrowding, cost

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Authors: Niyiragira Sixte, Jules Verne Nakimana

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Introduction: Alcoholism is gradually becoming a public health issue due to its frequency, which continues to increase, especially in schools and at young ages. The general objective of the study was to contribute to the determination of the factors associated with alcohol consumption among young people. Methodology: This descriptive and analytical cross-sectional study entitled “Study of factors associated with alcohol consumption among young people aged 15 to 24. The study was conducted using a non-probability method, and the sampling technique was for convenience. The data collection technique used was the survey by questionnaire and the exploitation of the documentary. Microsoft Word 2013, Microsoft Excel 2.13 and EPI INFO7 software were used for this purpose. Results: The results of in study showed that 43.36% of the students surveyed took alcohol, and the factors associated with alcohol consumption are: religion, smoking and influence from friends. Conclusion: The prevalence of alcohol consumption among young people is very high, and awareness is more than necessary to prevent alcohol-related harm among young people.

Keywords: consumption, alcohol, young people, factors

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Authors: Jiahui Song

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In order to predict or explain a complicated biological process, it is important first to construct mathematical models that can be used to yield analytical solutions. Through numerical simulation, mathematical model results can be used to test scenarios that might not be easily attained in a laboratory experiment, or to predict parameters or phenomena. High-intensity, nanosecond pulse electroporation has been a recent development in bioelectrics. The dynamic pore model can be achieved by including a dynamic aspect and a dependence on the pore population density into pore formation energy equation to analyze and predict such electroporation effects. For greater accuracy, with inclusion of atomistic details, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were also carried out during this study. Besides inducing pores in cells, external voltages could also be used in principle to modulate action potential generation in nerves. This could have an application in electrically controlled ‘pain management’. Also a simple model-based rate equation treatment of the various cellular bio-chemical processes has been used to predict the pulse number dependent cell survival trends.

Keywords: model, high-intensity, nanosecond, bioelectrics

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Authors: Nirupama Sam

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COVID-19, the greatest pandemic since the turn of the century, presents several issues for urban planners, the most significant of which is determining appropriate mitigation techniques for creating pandemic-friendly and resilient public spaces. The study is conducted in four stages. The first stage consisted of literature reviews to examine the evolution and transformation of public spaces during pandemics throughout history and the role of public spaces during pandemic outbreaks. The second stage is to determine the factors that influence the success of public spaces, which was accomplished by an analysis of current literature and case studies. The influencing factors are categorized under comfort and images, uses and activity, access and linkages, and sociability. The third stage is to establish the priority of identified factors for which a questionnaire survey of stakeholders is conducted and analyzing of certain factors with the help of GIS tools. COVID-19 has been in effect in India for the last two years. Kerala has the highest daily COVID-19 prevalence due to its high population density, making it more susceptible to viral outbreaks. Despite all preventive measures taken against COVID-19, Kerala remains the worst-affected state in the country. Finally, two live case studies of the hardest-hit localities, namely Subhash bose park and Napier Museum park in the Ernakulam and Trivandrum districts of Kerala, respectively, were chosen as study areas for the survey. The responses to the questionnaire were analyzed using SPSS for determining the weights of the influencing factors. The spatial success of the selected case studies was examined using the GIS interpolation model. Following the overall assessment, the fourth stage is to develop strategies and guidelines for planning public spaces to make them more efficient and robust, which further leads to improved quality, safety and resilience to future pandemics.

Keywords: urban design, public space, covid-19, post-pandemic, public spaces

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Authors: Katerina Bakela, Ioanna Zerva, Irene Athanassakis

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Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is commonly used in murine sepsis models, which are largely associated with immunosuppression (incretion of MDSCs cells and Tregs, imbalance of inflammatory/anti-inflammatory cytokines) and collapse of the immune system. After adapting the LPS treatment to the needs of locally bred BALB/c mice, the present study explored the protective role of Micrococcus luteus peptidoglycan (PG) pre-activated vaccine-on chip in endotoxemia. The established protocol consisted of five daily intraperitoneal injections of 0.2mg/g LPS. Such protocol allowed longer survival, necessary in the prospect of the therapeutic treatment application. The so-called vaccine-on-chip consists of a 3-dimensional laser micro-texture Si-scaffold loaded with BALB/c mouse macrophages and activated in vitro with 1μg/ml PG, which exert its action upon subcutaneous implantation. The LPS treatment significantly decreased CD4+, CD8+, CD3z+, and CD19+ cells, while increasing myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), CD25+, and Foxp3+ cells. These results were accompanied by increased arginase-1 activity in spleen cell lysates and production of IL-6, TNF-a, and IL-18 while acquiring severe sepsis phenotype as defined by the murine sepsis scoring. The in vivo application of PG pre-activated vaccine-on chip significantly decreased the percent of CD11b+, Gr1+, CD25+, Foxp3+ cells, and arginase-1 activity in the spleen of LPS-treated animals, while decreasing IL-6 and TNF-a in the serum, allowing survival to all animals tested and rescuing the severity of sepsis phenotype. In conclusion, these results reveal a promising mode of action of PG pre-activated vaccine-on chip in LPS endotoxemia, strengthening; thus, the use of treatment is septic patients.

Keywords: myeloid-derived suppressor cells, peptidoglycan, sepsis, Si-scaffolds

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Authors: Tabassum Riaz

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This study provides a complete examination of the stock prices behavior in the Karachi stock exchange. It examines that whether Karachi stock exchange can be described as mean reversion or not. For this purpose daily, weekly and monthly index data from Karachi stock exchange ranging from period July 1, 1997 to July 2, 2011 was taken. After employing the Multiple variance ratio and unit root tests it is concluded that stock market follow mean reversion behavior and hence have reverting trend which opens the door for the active invest management. Thus technical analysis may be help to identify the potential areas for value creation.

Keywords: mean reversion, random walk, technical analysis, Karachi stock exchange

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Authors: Othmane Zarhali, Cécilia Aubrun, Emmanuel Bacry, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jean-François Muzy

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The Nested factor model was introduced by Bouchaud and al., where the asset return fluctuations are explained by common factors representing the market economic sectors and residuals (noises) sharing with the factors a common dominant volatility mode in addition to the idiosyncratic mode proper to each residual. This construction infers that the factors-residuals log volatilities are correlated. Here, we consider the case of a single factor where the only dominant common mode is a S-fbm process (introduced by Peng, Bacry and Muzy) with Hurst exponent H around 0.11 and the residuals having in addition to the previous common mode idiosyncratic components with Hurst exponents H around 0. The reason for considering this configuration is twofold: preserve the Nested factor model’s characteristics introduced by Bouchaud and al. and propose a framework through which the stylized fact reported by Peng and al. is reproduced, where it has been observed that the Hurst exponents of stock indices are large as compared to those of individual stocks. In this work, we show that the Log S-fbm Nested factor model’s construction leads to a Hurst exponent of single stocks being the ones of the idiosyncratic volatility modes and the Hurst exponent of the index being the one of the common volatility modes. Furthermore, we propose a statistical procedure to estimate the Hurst factor exponent from the stock returns dynamics together with theoretical guarantees, with good results in the limit where the number of stocks N goes to infinity. Last but not least, we show that the factor can be seen as an index constructed from the single stocks weighted by specific coefficients.

Keywords: hurst exponent, log S-fbm model, nested factor model, small intermittency approximation

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Authors: Faisal Asad Aburub

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Many organizations are investing in web applications and technologies in order to be competitive, some of them could not achieve its goals. The quality of web-based applications could play an important role for organizations to be competitive. So the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of quality of web-based applications to achieve a competitive advantage. A new model has been developed. An empirical investigation was performed on a banking sector in Jordan to test the new model. The results show that impact of web-based applications on competitive advantage is significant. Finally, further work is planned to validate and evaluate the proposed model using several domains.

Keywords: competitive advantage, web-based applications, empirical investigation, commercial banks in Jordan

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Authors: Jose A. Alvarez Aldegunde, Adrian Fernandez Sanchez, Matthew D. Menden, Bernardo Vila Rodriguez

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Up to five statistical pre-processings have been carried out considering the pollutant records of the stations present in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, also taking into account the childhood asthma incidence surveys conducted in hospitals in the city by the Health Ministry of Colombia for this study. These pre-processings have consisted of different techniques such as the determination of the quality of data collection, determination of the quality of the registration network, identification and debugging of errors in data collection, completion of missing data and purified data, as well as the improvement of the time scale of records. The characterization of the quality of the data has been conducted by means of density analysis of the pollutant registration stations using ArcGis Software and through mass balance techniques, making it possible to determine inconsistencies in the records relating the registration data between stations following the linear regression. The results obtained in this process have highlighted the positive quality in the pollutant registration process. Consequently, debugging of errors has allowed us to identify certain data as statistically non-significant in the incidence and series of contamination. This data, together with certain missing records in the series recorded by the measuring stations, have been completed by statistical imputation equations. Following the application of these prior processes, the basic series of incidence data for respiratory disease and pollutant records have allowed the characterization of the influence of pollutants on respiratory diseases such as, for example, childhood asthma. This characterization has been carried out using statistical correlation methods, including visual correlation, simple linear regression correlation and spectral analysis with PAST Software which identifies maximum periodicity cycles and minimums under the formula of the Lomb periodgram. In relation to part of the results obtained, up to eleven maximums and minimums considered contemporary between the incidence records and the particles have been identified taking into account the visual comparison. The spectral analyses that have been performed on the incidence and the PM2.5 have returned a series of similar maximum periods in both registers, which are at a maximum during a period of one year and another every 25 days (0.9 and 0.07 years). The bivariate analysis has managed to characterize the variable "Daily Vehicular Flow" in the ninth position of importance of a total of 55 variables. However, the statistical correlation has not obtained a favorable result, having obtained a low value of the R2 coefficient. The series of analyses conducted has demonstrated the importance of the influence of pollutants such as PM2.5 in the development of childhood asthma in Cartagena. The quantification of the influence of the variables has been able to determine that there is a 56% probability of dependence between PM2.5 and childhood respiratory asthma in Cartagena. Considering this justification, the study could be completed through the application of the BenMap Software, throwing a series of spatial results of interpolated values of the pollutant contamination records that exceeded the established legal limits (represented by homogeneous units up to the neighborhood level) and results of the impact on the exacerbation of pediatric asthma. As a final result, an economic estimate (in Colombian Pesos) of the monthly and individual savings derived from the percentage reduction of the influence of pollutants in relation to visits to the Hospital Emergency Room due to asthma exacerbation in pediatric patients has been granted.

Keywords: Asthma Incidence, BenMap, PM2.5, Statistical Analysis

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Authors: Oloruntegbe Kunle Oke, Alake Ese Monica, Odutuyi Olubu Musili

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This research explores the differing effectiveness of cascade and cluster models in professional development programs for educators in Ondo State, Nigeria. The cascade model emphasizes a top-down approach, where training is cascaded from expert trainers to lower levels of teachers. In contrast, the cluster model, a bottom-up approach, fosters collaborative learning among teachers within specific clusters. Through a review of the literature and empirical studies of the implementations of the former in two academic sessions followed by the cluster model in another two, the study examined their effectiveness on teacher development, productivity and students’ achievements. The study also drew a comparative analysis of the strengths and weaknesses associated with each model, considering factors such as scalability, cost-effectiveness, adaptability in various contexts, and sustainability. 2500 teachers from Ondo State Primary Schools participated in the cascade with intensive training in five zones for a week each in two academic sessions. On the other hand, 1,980 and 1,663 teachers in 52 and 34 clusters, respectively, were in the first and the following session. The programs were designed for one week of rigorous training of teachers by facilitators in the former while the latter was made up of four components: sit-in-observation, need-based assessment workshop, pre-cluster and the actual cluster meetings in addition to sensitization, and took place one day a week for ten weeks. Validated Cluster Impact Survey Instruments, CISI and Teacher’s Assessment Questionnaire (TAQ) were administered to ascertain the effectiveness of the models during and after implementation. The findings from the literature detailed specific effectiveness, strengths and limitations of each approach, especially the potential for inconsistencies and resistance to change. Findings from the data collected revealed the superiority of the cluster model. Response to TAQ equally showed content knowledge and skill update in both but were more sustained in the cluster model. Overall, the study contributes to the ongoing discourse on effective strategies for improving teacher training and enhancing student outcomes, offering practical recommendations for the development and implementation of future professional development projects.

Keywords: cascade model, cluster model, teachers’ development, productivity, students’ achievement

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

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Authors: Cyrillus Prabandana

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Supply chain optimisation requires multiple factors as consideration or constraints. These factors are including but not limited to demand forecasting, raw material fulfilment, production capacity, inventory level, facilities locations, transportation means, and manpower availability. By knowing all manageable factors involved and assuming the uncertainty with pre-defined percentage factors, an integrated supply chain model could be developed to manage various business scenarios. This paper analyse the utilisation of geographical point of view to develop an integrated supply chain network model to optimise the distribution of finished product appropriately according to forecasted demand and available supply. The supply chain optimisation model shows that small change in one supply chain constraint is possible to largely impact other constraints, and the new information from the model should be able to support the decision making process. The model was focused on three areas, i.e. raw material fulfilment, production capacity and finished products transportation. To validate the model suitability, it was implemented in a project aimed to optimise the concrete supply chain in a mining location. The high level of operations complexity and involvement of multiple stakeholders in the concrete supply chain is believed to be sufficient to give the illustration of the larger scope. The implementation of this geographical supply chain network modeling resulted an optimised concrete supply chain from raw material fulfilment until finished products distribution to each customer, which indicated by lower percentage of missed concrete order fulfilment to customer.

Keywords: decision making, geographical supply chain modeling, supply chain optimisation, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 344