Search results for: hetero-occurrences species distribution model

Authors: David B. Kisakye, Paul Mugabi

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Biomass briquettes have been identified as a plausible and close alternative to commonly used energy fuels such as charcoal and firewood, whose prices are escalating due to the dwindling natural resource base. However, briquettes do not seem to be as popular as would be expected. This study assessed the production, distribution, and acceptability of the briquettes in the Kampala district. A total of 60 respondents, 50 of whom were briquette users and 10 briquette producers, were sampled from five divisions of Kampala district to evaluate consumer acceptability, preference for briquette type and shape. Households and institutions were identified to be the major consumers of briquettes, while community-based organizations were the major distributors of briquettes. The Chi-square test of independence showed a significant association between briquette acceptability and briquette attributes of substitutability and low cost (p < 0,05). The Kruskal Wallis test showed that low-income class people preferred non-carbonized briquettes. Gender, marital status, and income level also cause variation in preference for spherical, stick, and honeycomb briquettes (p < 0,05). The major challenges faced by briquette users in Kampala were; production of a lot of ash, frequent crushing, and limited access to briquettes. The producers of briquettes were mainly challenged by regular machine breakdown, raw material scarcity, and poor carbonizing units. It was concluded that briquettes have a market and are generally accepted in Kampala. However, user preferences need to be taken into account by briquette produces, suitable cookstoves should be availed to users, and there is a need for standards to ensure the quality of briquettes.

Keywords: consumer acceptability, biomass residues, briquettes, briquette producers, distribution, fuel, marketability, wood fuel

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Irene Carter, Roy Hanes, Judy MacDonald

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Considering that disability is universal and people with disabilities are part of all societies; that there is a connection between the disabled individual and the societal; and that it is society and social arrangements that disable people with impairments, contemporary disability discourse emphasizes the social model of disability to counter medical and rehabilitative models of disability. However, the social model does not go far enough in addressing the issues of oppression and inclusion. The authors indicate that the social model does not specifically or adequately denote the oppression of persons with disabilities, which is a central component of progressive social work practice with people with disabilities. The social model of disability does not go far enough in deconstructing disability and offering social workers, as well as people with disabilities a way of moving forward in terms of practice anchored in individual, familial and societal change. The social model of disability is expanded by incorporating principles of anti-oppression social work practice. Although the contextual analysis of the social model of disability is an important component there remains a need for social workers to provide service to individuals and their families, which will be illustrated through anti-oppressive practice (AOP). By applying an anti-oppressive model of practice to the above definitions, the authors not only deconstruct disability paradigms but illustrate how AOP offers a framework for social workers to engage with people with disabilities at the individual, familial and community levels of practice, promoting an emancipatory focus in working with people with disabilities. An anti- social- oppression social work model of disability connects the day-to-day hardships of people with disabilities to the direct consequence of oppression in the form of ableism. AOP theory finds many of its basic concepts within social-oppression theory and the social model of disability. It is often the case that practitioners, including social workers and psychologists, define people with disabilities’ as having or being a problem with the focus placed upon adjustment and coping. A case example will be used to illustrate how an AOP paradigm offers social work a more comprehensive and critical analysis and practice model for social work practice with and for people with disabilities than the traditional medical model, rehabilitative and social model approaches.

Keywords: anti-oppressive practice, disability, people with disabilities, social model of disability

Procedia PDF Downloads 1097

Authors: Abdelazeem Algammal, Reham Abouelmaatti, Xiaokun Li, Jisheng Ma, Eman Abdelnaby, Wael Elfeil

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Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are the best understood of the innate immune receptors that detect infections in vertebrates. However, the fish TLRs also exhibit very distinct features and a large diversity, which is likely derived from their diverse evolutionary history and the distinct environments that they occupy. Little is known about the fish immune system structure. Our work was aimed to identify and clone the Nile tilapiaTLR-3 as a model of freshwater fish species; we cloned the full-length cDNA sequence of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) TLR-3 and according to our knowledge, it is the first report illustrating tilapia TLR-3. The complete cDNA sequence of Nile tilapia TLR-3 was 2736 pair base and it encodes a polypeptide of 912 amino acids. Analysis of the deduced amino acid sequence indicated that Nile tilapia TLR-3 has typical structural features and main components of proteins belonging to the TLR family. Our results illustrate a complete and functional Nile tilapia TLR-3 and it is considered an ortholog of the other vertebrate’s receptor.

Keywords: Nile tilapia, TLR-3, cloning, gene expression

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Saad M. Darwish

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Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However, these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.

Keywords: software quality, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment

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Authors: Hui Wei, Zheng Dong

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Object recognition has long been a challenging task in computer vision. Yet the human brain, with the ability to rapidly and accurately recognize visual stimuli, manages this task effortlessly. In the past decades, advances in neuroscience have revealed some neural mechanisms underlying visual processing. In this paper, we present a novel model inspired by the visual pathway in primate brains. This multi-layer neural network model imitates the hierarchical convergent processing mechanism in the visual pathway. We show that local image features generated by this model exhibit robust discrimination and even better generalization ability compared with some existing image descriptors. We also demonstrate the application of this model in an object recognition task on image data sets. The result provides strong support for the potential of this model.

Keywords: biological model, feature extraction, multi-layer neural network, object recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 545

Authors: Ahmed Nour El Islam Ayad, Tahar Rouibah, Wafa Krika, Houari Boudjella, Larab Moulay, Farid Benhamida, Selma Benmoussa

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the electromagnetic field of an underground cable of very high voltage perforated by nail. The aim of this work shows a numerical simulation of the electromagnetic field of 400 kV line after perforation through a ferrous nail in four positions for the pinch pin at different distances. From results for a longitudinal section, we observe and evaluate the distribution and the variation of the electromagnetic field in the cable and the earth. When the nail approaches the underground power cable, the distribution of the magnetic field changes and takes several forms, the magnetic field increase and become very important when the nail breaks the metal screen and will produce a significant leak of the electric field, characterized by a large electric arc and or electric discharge to earth and then a fault in the electrical network. These electromagnetic analysis results help to detect defects in underground cables.

Keywords: underground, electromagnetic, nail, defect

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Samy Selim

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Natural products are still major sources of innovative therapeutic agents for various conditions, including infectious diseases. Peganum harmala L. oil had wide range uses as traditional medicinal plants. The current study was designed to evaluate the antibacterial activity of P. harmala essential oil. The chemical constitutes and toxicity of these oils was also determined to obtain further information on the correlation between the chemical contents and antibacterial activity. The antibacterial effect of the essential oils of P. harmala oil was studied against some foodborne pathogenic bacteria species. The oil of plant was subjected to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The impact of oils administration on the change in rate of weight gain and complete blood picture in hamsters were investigated. P. harmala oil had strong antibacterial effect against bacterial species especially at minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) less than 75.0 μg/ml. From the oil of P. harmala, forty one compounds were identified, and the major constituent was 1-hexyl-2-nitrocyclohexane (9.07%). Acute toxicity test was performed on hamsters and showed complete survival after 14 days, and there were no toxicity symptoms occurred. This study demonstrated that these essential oils seemed to be destitute of toxic effect which could compromise the medicinal use of these plants in folk medicine.

Keywords: analysis mass spectrometry, antibacterial activities, acute toxicity, chemical constitutes, gas chromatography, weight gain, Peganum harmala

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Zhang Yuqi

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Service facilities are the boosters for the cultivation and development of innovative functions in innovative cluster areas. At the same time, reasonable service facilities planning can better link the internal functional blocks. This paper takes Zhejiang University Zijin Co-Maker Town as the research object, based on the combination of network data mining and field research and verification, combined with the needs of its internal innovative groups. It studies the distribution characteristics and existing problems of service facilities and then proposes a targeted planning suggestion. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) From the perspective of view, the town is rich in general life-supporting services, but lacking of provision targeted and distinctive service facilities for innovative groups; (2) From the perspective of scale structure, small-scale street shops are the main business form, lack of large-scale service center; (3) From the perspective of spatial structure, service facilities layout of each functional block is too fragile to fit the characteristics of 2aggregation- distribution' of innovation and entrepreneurial activities; (4) The goal of optimizing service facilities planning should be guided for fostering function of innovation and entrepreneurship and meet the actual needs of the innovation and entrepreneurial groups.

Keywords: the cultivation of innovative function, Zhejiang University Zijin Co-Maker Town, service facilities, network data mining, space optimization advice

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Authors: M. Y. Ismail, Arslan Kiyani

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Narrow bandwidth and high loss performance limits the use of reflectarray antennas in some applications. This article reports on the feasibility of employing strategic reflectarray resonant elements to characterize the reflectivity performance of reflectarrays in X-band frequency range. Strategic reflectarray resonant elements incorporating variable substrate thicknesses ranging from 0.016λ to 0.052λ have been analyzed in terms of reflection loss and reflection phase performance. The effect of substrate thickness has been validated by using waveguide scattering parameter technique. It has been demonstrated that as the substrate thickness is increased from 0.508mm to 1.57mm the measured reflection loss of dipole element decreased from 5.66dB to 3.70dB with increment in 10% bandwidth of 39MHz to 64MHz. Similarly the measured reflection loss of triangular loop element is decreased from 20.25dB to 7.02dB with an increment in 10% bandwidth of 12MHz to 23MHz. The results also show a significant decrease in the slope of reflection phase curve as well. A Figure of Merit (FoM) has also been defined for the comparison of static phase range of resonant elements under consideration. Moreover, a novel numerical model based on analytical equations has been established incorporating the material properties of dielectric substrate and electrical properties of different reflectarray resonant elements to obtain the progressive phase distribution for each individual reflectarray resonant element.

Keywords: numerical model, reflectarray resonant elements, scattering parameter measurements, variable substrate thickness

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: M. Gogniashvili, I. Maisaia, A. Kotorashvili, N. Kotaria, T. Beridze

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Three types of plasmon (A, B and G) is typical for genus Triticum. In polyploid species - Triticum turgidum L. and Triticum aestivum L. plasmon B is detected. In the forthcoming paper, complete nucleotide sequence of chloroplast DNA of 11 representatives of Georgian wheat polyploid species, carrying plasmon B was determined. Sequencing of chloroplast DNA was performed on an Illumina MiSeq platform. Chloroplast DNA molecules were assembled using the SOAPdenovo computer program. All contigs were aligned to the reference chloroplast genome sequence using BLASTN. For detection of SNPs and Indels and phylogeny tree construction computer programs Mafft and Blast were used. Using Triticum aestivum L. subsp. macha (Dekapr. & Menabde) Mackey var. paleocolchicum Dekapr. et Menabde as a reference, 5 SNPs can be identified in chloroplast DNA of Georgian endemic polyploid wheat. The number of noncoding substitutions is 2, coding substitutions - 3. In comparison with reference DNA two - 38 bp and 56 bp inversions were observed in paleocolchicum subspecies. There were six 1 bp indels detected in Georgian polyploid wheats, all of them at microsatellite stretches. The phylogeny tree shows that subspecies macha, carthlicum and paleocolchicum occupy different positions. According to the simplified scheme based on SNP and indel data, the ancestral, female parent of the all studied polyploid wheat is unknown X predecesor, from which four lines were formed. 1 SNP and two inversions (38 bp and 56 bp) caused the formation of subsp. paleocolchicum. Three other lines are macha, durum and carthlicum lines. Macha line is further divided into two sublines (M_1 and M_4). Carthlicum line includes subsp.carthlicum and T.aestivum - C_1 - C_2 - A_1. One of the central question of wheat domestication is which people(s) participated in wheat domestication? It is proposed that the predecessors of Georgian peoples (Proto-Kartvelians) must be placed, on the evidence of archaic lexical and toponymic data, in the mountainous regions of the western and central part of the Little Caucasus (the Transcaucasian foothills) at least 4,000 years ago. One of the possibility to explain the ‘wheat puzzle’ is that Kartvelian speakers brought domesticated wheat species and subspecis from Fertile Crescent further north to South Caucasus.

Keywords: chloroplast DNA, sequencing, SNP, triticum

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Neha Kulshreshtha

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This paper examines the patterns of 'Mouthing', a non-manual marker, and its distribution in Indian Sign Language (ISL). Linguistic research in Indian Sign Language is an emerging field where much is needed to be done. The little research which has happened focuses on the structure of ISL in terms of physical or manual markers, therefore a study of mouthing patterns would give an insight into the distribution of this particular non-manual marker. Data has been collected with the help of native ISL users through various techniques in which natural signs can be captured, for example, storytelling, informal conversations etc. The aim of the study is to find out the various situations where mouthing is used. Sometimes, the mouthing is not actually the articulation of the word as spoken in the local languages. The paper aims to find out whether the mouthing patterns in ISL are influenced by any local language or they are independent of any influence from the local language or both. Mouthing patterns have been studied in many sign languages and an investigation into ISL will reveal whether it falls in pattern with the other sign languages.

Keywords: Indian sign language, mouthing, non-manual marker, spoken language influence

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Guillaume Caulier, Lola Brasseur, Patrick Flammang, Pascal Gerbaux, Igor Eeckhaut

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Saponins and quinones are two major groups of secondary metabolites widely distributed in the biosphere. More specifically, triterpenoid saponins and anthraquinones are mainly found in a wide variety of plants, bacteria and fungi. In the animal kingdom, these natural organic compounds are rare and only found in small quantities in arthropods, marine sponges and echinoderms. In this last group, triterpenoid saponins are specific to holothuroids (sea cucumbers) while anthraquinones are the chemical signature of crinoids (feather stars). Depending on the species, they present different molecular cocktails. Despite presenting different chemical properties, these molecules share numerous similarities. This study compares the biological distribution, the pharmacological effects and the ecological roles of holothuroid saponins and crinoid anthraquinones. Both of them have been defined as allomones repelling predators and parasites (i.e. chemical defense) and have interesting pharmacological properties (e.g. anti-bacterial, anti-fungal, anti-cancer). Our study investigates the chemical ecology of two symbiotic associations models; between the snapping shrimp Synalpheus stimpsonii associated with crinoids and the Harlequin crab Lissocarcinus orbicularis associated with holothuroids. Using behavioral experiments in olfactometers, chemical extractions and mass spectrometry analyses, we discovered that saponins and anthraquinones present a second ecological role: the attraction of obligatory symbionts towards their hosts. They can, therefore, be defined as kairomones. This highlights a new paradigm in marine chemical ecology: Chemical repellents are attractants to obligatory symbionts because they constitute host specific chemical signatures.

Keywords: anthraquinones, kairomones, marine symbiosis, saponins, attractant

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 462

Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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The present study compares the semi-empirical wake-oscillator models that are used to predict vortex-induced vibration of structures. These models include those proposed by Facchinetti, Farshidian, and Dolatabadi, and Skop and Griffin. These models combine a wake oscillator model resembling the Van der Pol oscillator model and a single degree of freedom oscillation model. In order to use these models for estimating the top displacement of chimneys, the first mode vibration of the chimneys is only considered. The modal equation of the chimney constitutes the single degree of freedom model (SDOF). The equations of the wake oscillator model and the SDOF are simultaneously solved using an iterative procedure. The empirical parameters used in the wake-oscillator models are estimated using a newly developed approach, and response is compared with experimental data, which appeared comparable. For carrying out the iterative solution, the ode solver of MATLAB is used. To carry out the comparative study, a tall concrete chimney of height 210m has been chosen with the base diameter as 28m, top diameter as 20m, and thickness as 0.3m. The responses of the chimney are also determined using the linear model proposed by E. Simiu and the deterministic model given in Eurocode. It is observed from the comparative study that the responses predicted by the Facchinetti model and the model proposed by Skop and Griffin are nearly the same, while the model proposed by Fashidian and Dolatabadi predicts a higher response. The linear model without considering the aero-elastic phenomenon provides a less response as compared to the non-linear models. Further, for large damping, the prediction of the response by the Euro code is relatively well compared to those of non-linear models.

Keywords: chimney, deterministic model, van der pol, vortex-induced vibration

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Authors: Priyanka Mondal, Santosh K. Sarkar

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The present study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution and ecological risk assessment of trace elements of surface sediments (top 0 - 5 cm; grain size ≤ 0.63 µm) in relevance to sediment quality characteristics along the Ganges River Estuary, India. Sediment samples were collected during ebb tide from intertidal regions covering seven sampling sites of diverse environmental stresses. The elements were analyzed with the help of ICPAES. This positive, mixohaline, macro-tidal estuary has global significance contributing ecological and economic services. Presence of fine-clayey particle (47.03%) enhances the adsorption as well as transportation of trace elements. There is a remarkable inter-metallic variation (mg kg-1 dry weight) in the distribution pattern in the following manner: Al (31801± 15943) > Fe (23337± 7584) > Mn (461±147) > S(381±235) > Zn(54 ±18) > V(43 ±14) > Cr(39 ±15) > As (34±15) > Cu(27 ±11) > Ni (24 ±9) > Se (17 ±8) > Co(11 ±3) > Mo(10 ± 2) > Hg(0.02 ±0.01). An overall trend of enrichment of majority of trace elements was very much pronounced at the site Lot 8, ~ 35km upstream of the estuarine mouth. In contrast, the minimum concentration was recorded at site Gangasagar, mouth of the estuary, with high energy profile. The prevalent variations in trace element distribution are being liable for a set of cumulative factors such as hydrodynamic conditions, sediment dispersion pattern and textural variations as well as non-homogenous input of contaminants from point and non-point sources. In order to gain insight into the trace elements distribution, accumulation, and their pollution status, geoaccumulation index (Igeo) and enrichment factor (EF) were used. The Igeo indicated that surface sediments were moderately polluted with As (0.60) and Mo (1.30) and strongly contaminated with Se (4.0). The EF indicated severe pollution of Se (53.82) and significant pollution of As (4.05) and Mo (6.0) and indicated the influx of As, Mo and Se in sediments from anthropogenic sources (such as industrial and municipal sewage, atmospheric deposition, agricultural run-off, etc.). The significant role of the megacity Calcutta in relevance to the untreated sewage discharge, atmospheric inputs and other anthropogenic activities is worthwhile to mention. The ecological risk for different trace elements was evaluated using sediment quality guidelines, effects range low (ERL), and effect range median (ERM). The concentration of As, Cu and Ni at 100%, 43% and 86% of the sampling sites has exceeded the ERL value while none of the element concentration exceeded ERM. The potential ecological risk index values revealed that As at 14.3% of the sampling sites would pose relatively moderate risk to benthic organisms. The effective role of finer clay particles for trace element distribution was revealed by multivariate analysis. The authors strongly recommend regular monitoring emphasizing on accurate appraisal of the potential risk of trace elements for effective and sustainable management of this estuarine environment.

Keywords: pollution assessment, sediment contamination, sediment quality, trace elements

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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Authors: Yantao Li, Jun Zheng

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Food poison caused by consumption of contaminated food, especially seafood, is one of most serious public health threats worldwide. Vibrio parahaemolyticus is emerging bacterial pathogen and the leading cause of human gastroenteritis associated with food poison, especially in the southern coastal region of China. To successfully cause disease in host, bacterial pathogens need to overcome the host-derived stresses encountered during infection. One of the toxic chemical species elaborated by the host is nitric oxide (NO). NO is generated by acidified nitrite in the stomach and by enzymes of the inducible NO synthase (iNOS) in the host cell, and is toxic to bacteria. Bacterial pathogens have evolved some mechanisms to battle with this toxic stress. Such mechanisms include genes to sense NO produced from immune system and activate others to detoxify NO toxicity, and genes to repair the damage caused by toxic reactive nitrogen species (RNS) generated during NO toxic stress. However, little is known about the NO resistance in V. parahaemolyticus. In this study, a transposon coupled with next generation sequencing (Tn-seq) technology will be utilized to identify genes for NO resistance in V. parahaemolyticus. Our strategy will include construction the saturating transposon insertion library, transposon library challenging with NO, next generation sequencing (NGS), bioinformatics analysis and verification of the identified genes in vitro and in vivo.

Keywords: vibrio parahaemolyticus, nitric oxide, tn-seq, virulence

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Authors: Se-Mi Lim, Won-Jae Jung, Jin-Sup Kim, Jun-Seok Park, Hyung-Il Chae

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This paper presents a current-mode vertical hall device (VHD) structure using metal layers in a CMOS process. The proposed metal layer based vertical hall device (MLVHD) utilizes vertical connection among metal layers (from M1 to the top metal) to facilitate hall effect. The vertical metal structure unit flows a bias current Ibias from top to bottom, and an external magnetic field changes the current distribution by Lorentz force. The asymmetric current distribution can be detected by two differential-mode current outputs on each side at the bottom (M1), and each output sinks Ibias/2 ± Ihall. A single vertical metal structure generates only a small amount of hall effect of Ihall due to the short length from M1 to the top metal as well as the low conductivity of the metal, and a series connection between thousands of vertical structure units can solve the problem by providing NxIhall. The series connection between two units is another vertical metal structure flowing current in the opposite direction, and generates negative hall effect. To mitigate the negative hall effect from the series connection, the differential current outputs at the bottom (M1) from one unit merges on the top metal level of the other unit. The proposed MLVHD is simulated in a 3-dimensional model simulator in COMSOL Multiphysics, with 0.35 μm CMOS process parameters. The simulated MLVHD unit size is (W) 10 μm × (L) 6 μm × (D) 10 μm. In this paper, we use an MLVHD with 10 units; the overall hall device size is (W) 10 μm × (L)78 μm × (D) 10 μm. The COMSOL simulation result is as following: the maximum hall current is approximately 2 μA with a 12 μA bias current and 100mT magnetic field; This work was supported by Institute for Information & communications Technology Promotion(IITP) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIP) (No.R7117-16-0165, Development of Hall Effect Semiconductor for Smart Car and Device).

Keywords: CMOS, vertical hall device, current mode, COMSOL

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Authors: Sabah Ben Fredj Melki, Yves Brygoo, Ahmed Mliki

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A 700 pb PCR-derived DNA fragment was isolated from Aspergillus carbonarius, Aspergillus niger, and Aspergillus tubingensis using degenerated primers (LC1-LC2c) and two newly designed primer pairs (KSLB-LC6) for Aspergillus niger and (AFl1F-LC2) for Aspergillus tubingensis developed for the acyl transferase (AT) and the KS domains of fungal PKSs. DNA from the most of black Aspergillus species currently recognized was tested. Herein, we report on the identification and characterisation of a part of the novel putative OTA-polyketide synthase gene in A. carbonarius “ACPks”, A. niger “ANPks” and A. tubingenis “ATPks”. The sequences were aligned and analyzed using phylogenetic methods. Primers used in this study showed general applicability and other Aspergillus species belonging to section Nigri were successfully amplified especially in A. niger and A. tubingenis. The predicted amino acid sequences “ACPks” displayed 66 to 81% similarities to different polyketide synthase genes while “ANPks” similarities varied from 68 to 71% and “ATPks” were from 81 to 97%. The AT and the KS domains appeared to be specific for a particular type of fungal PKSs and were related to PKSs involved in different mycotoxin biosynthesis pathways, including ochratoxin A. The sequences presented in this work have a high utility for the discovery of novel fungal PKS gene clusters.

Keywords: Pks genes, OTA Biosynthesis, Aspergillus Nigri, sequence analysis

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Authors: Samiksha Raviraja, Junaid Arif

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One of the most important abilities in species is the ability to communicate. This paper proposes steps to take when and if aliens came in contact with humans, and how humans would communicate with them. The situation would be a time-sensitive scenario, meaning that communication is at the utmost importance if such an event were to happen. First, humans would need to establish mutual peace by conveying that there is no threat to the alien race. Second, the aliens would need to acknowledge this understanding and reciprocate. This would be extremely difficult to do regardless of their intelligence level unless they are very human-like and have similarities to our way of communicating. The first step towards understanding their mind is to analyze their level of intelligence - Level 1-Low intelligence, Level 2-Human-like intelligence or Level 3-Advanced or High Intelligence. These three levels go hand in hand with the Kardashev scale. Further, the Barrow scale will also be used to categorize alien species in hopes of developing a common universal language to communicate in. This paper will delve into how the level of intelligence can be used toward achieving communication with aliens by predicting various possible scenarios and outcomes by proposing an intensive categorization system. This can be achieved by studying their Emotional and Intelligence Quotient (along with technological and scientific knowledge/intelligence). The limitations and capabilities of their intelligence must also be studied. By observing how they respond and react (expressions and senses) to different kinds of scenarios, items and people, the data will help enable good categorisation. It can be hypothesised that the more human-like aliens are or can relate to humans, the more likely it is that communication is possible. Depending on the situation, either human can teach aliens a human language, or humans can learn an alien language, or both races work together to develop a mutual understanding or mode of communication. There are three possible ways of contact. Aliens visit Earth, or humans discover aliens while on space exploration or through technology in the form of signals. A much rarer case would be humans and aliens running into each other during a space expedition of their own. The first two possibilities allow a more in-depth analysis of the alien life and enhanced results compared. The importance of finding a method of talking with aliens is important in order to not only protect Earth and humans but rather for the advancement of Science through the shared knowledge between the two species.

Keywords: intelligence, Kardashev scale, Barrow scale, alien civilizations, emotional and intelligence quotient

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: M. A. Peribanez, G. Illan, I. De Blas, A. Muniesa, I. Ruiz-Zarzuela

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Intensive aquaculture is commonly associated with increased incidence of parasites. However, in Spain, the recent intensification of cyprinid production has not led to knowledge of the parasites that develop in the aquaculture facilities, the factors that affect their development and spread and the transmission between wild and cultivated fish species. The present study focuses on the knowledge of environmental factors, as well as host dependent factors, and their possible influence as risk factors in the incidence and intensity of parasitic infections. This work was conducted in the Duero River Basin, NW Spain. A total of 114 tenches (Tinca tinca) were caught in a fish farm and 667 specimens belonging to six species of cyprinid, not tench, in five rivers. An exhaustive search and microscopic identification of protozoa on skin and gills were carried out. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters of water samples from the capture points were determined. Only two ectoprotozoa were identified, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. In I. multifiliis, a high intensity of infection (more than 40 parasites on the body surface and more than 80 on gills) was determined in farmed tench (14%) and in Iberian barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei) (91%) and Duero nase (Pseudochondrostoma duriense) (71%) of middle stretches of rivers. The prevalence was similar between farmed tenches and cyprinids of middle courses. Tripartiella sp. was only found in barbels (prevalence in middle stretches, 0.7%) and in farmed tenches (63%), this species resulting in a high risk factor (odds ratio, OR= 1143) in the presence of the ciliate. There were no differences between the two species relative to the intensity of parasitization. Some of the physical, chemical and microbiological water quality parameters appear to be risk factors in the presence of I. multifiliis, with maximum OR of 8. Nevertheless, in Tripartiella sp., the risk is multiplied by 720 when the pH value exceeds 8.4, if we consider the total of the data, and it is increased more than 500 times if we only consider the values recorded in the fish farm (529 by nitrates > 3 mg/l; 530 by total coliforms > 100 CFU/100 ml). However, the high prevalence and risk of infection by I. multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. in fish farms should be related to environmental factors that dependent upon sampling point rather than in direct influence of the physical-chemical and biological parameters of the water. The high pH value recorded in the fish farm (9.62 ± 0.76) is the only parameter that we consider may have a substantial direct influence. Chronic exposure to alkaline pH levels can be a chronic stress generator, predisposing to parasitization by Tripartiella sp. In conclusion, often minor changes in ecosystem conditions, both natural and man-made, can modify the host-parasite relationship, resulting in an increase in the prevalence and intensity of parasitic infections in populations of cyprinids, sometimes causing disease outbreaks.

Keywords: cyprinids, fish, parasites, protozoa, risk factors

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Authors: Elena Puica

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This paper aims to investigate the impact of Supply Chain Management (SCM) on the environment by applying a Machine Learning model while pointing out the efficiency of the technology used. The Machine Learning model was used to derive the efficiency and optimization of technology used in SCM and the environmental impact of SCM processes. The model applied is a predictive classification model and was trained firstly to determine which stage of the SCM has more outputs and secondly to demonstrate the efficiency of using advanced technology in SCM instead of recuring to traditional SCM. The outputs are the emissions generated in the environment, the consumption from different steps in the life cycle, the resulting pollutants/wastes emitted, and all the releases to air, land, and water. This manuscript presents an innovative approach to applying advanced technology in SCM and simultaneously studies the efficiency of technology and the SCM's impact on the environment. Identifying the conceptual relationships between SCM practices and their impact on the environment is a new contribution to the research. The authors can take a forward step in developing recent studies in SCM and its effects on the environment by applying technology.

Keywords: machine-learning model in SCM, SCM processes, SCM and the environmental impact, technology in SCM

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Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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Authors: Ningombam Linthoingambi Devi, Amrendra Kumar

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The long term sampling at one of the most populated city in Indo-Gangetic region shows higher mass concentration of atmospheric aerosol (PM₂.₅) during spring season (144.70µg/m³), summer season (91.96 µg/m³), the autumn season (266.48µg/m³) and winter season (367.09 µg/m³) respectively. The concentration of PM₂.₅ in Patna across the year shows much higher than the limit fixed by the national ambient air quality level fixed by central pollution control board India (CPCB, India) and World Health Organization (WHO). Different water-soluble cation (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, NH₄⁺ , and Mg²⁺) and anion (Cl⁻, NO₃⁻ , and SO₄²⁻) species were detected in PM₂.₅. Results show the significantly higher loaded of water-soluble ions during winter and spring seasons. The acidity of the atmosphere was revealed and calculated using selected major cations (K⁺, Ca²⁺ , and NH₄⁺) and anions (SO₄²⁻, and NO₃⁻). A regression correlation was analyzed to check the significant linkage between the acidity and alkalinity ions. During the winter season (r² = 0.79) and spring season (r² = 0.64) shows good significant correlation between the cations and anions. The ratio of NO₃⁻/SO₄²⁻ indicates the sources of secondary pollutants were mainly influenced by industrial and vehicular emission however SO₄²⁻ mostly emitted from industries during the winter season.

Keywords: aerosols, inorganic species, source apportionment, Indo-Gangetic region

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Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid

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Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.

Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE

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Authors: Rouhallah Bagheri, Morteza Mahmoudi, Hadi Moheb-Alizadeh

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In this paper, we develop a supplier selection and order allocation multi-objective model in stochastic environment in which purchasing cost, percentage of delivered items with delay and percentage of rejected items provided by each supplier are supposed to be stochastic parameters following any arbitrary probability distribution. To do so, we use dependent chance programming (DCP) that maximizes probability of the event that total purchasing cost, total delivered items with delay and total rejected items are less than or equal to pre-determined values given by decision maker. After transforming the above mentioned stochastic multi-objective programming problem into a stochastic single objective problem using minimum deviation method, we apply a genetic algorithm to get the later single objective problem solved. The employed genetic algorithm performs a simulation process in order to calculate the stochastic objective function as its fitness function. At the end, we explore the impact of stochastic parameters on the given solution via a sensitivity analysis exploiting coefficient of variation. The results show that as stochastic parameters have greater coefficients of variation, the value of objective function in the stochastic single objective programming problem is worsened.

Keywords: dependent chance programming, genetic algorithm, minimum deviation method, order allocation, supplier selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 259