Search results for: predictive coding

Authors: Sijing Xiong, Ran Su, Lit-Hsin Loo, Daniele Zink

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The kidney is a major target for toxic effects of drugs, industrial and environmental chemicals and other compounds. Typically, nephrotoxicity is detected late during drug development, and regulatory animal models could not solve this problem. Validated or accepted in silico or in vitro methods for the prediction of nephrotoxicity are not available. We have established the first and currently only pre-validated in vitro models for the accurate prediction of nephrotoxicity in humans and the first predictive platforms based on renal cells derived from human pluripotent stem cells. In order to further improve the efficiency of our predictive models, we recently developed a high content screening (HCS) platform. This platform employed automated imaging in combination with automated quantitative phenotypic profiling and machine learning methods. 129 image-based phenotypic features were analyzed with respect to their predictive performance in combination with 44 compounds with different chemical structures that included drugs, environmental and industrial chemicals and herbal and fungal compounds. The nephrotoxicity of these compounds in humans is well characterized. A combination of chromatin and cytoskeletal features resulted in high predictivity with respect to nephrotoxicity in humans. Test balanced accuracies of 82% or 89% were obtained with human primary or immortalized renal proximal tubular cells, respectively. Furthermore, our results revealed that a DNA damage response is commonly induced by different PTC-toxicants with diverse chemical structures and injury mechanisms. Together, the results show that the automated HCS platform allows efficient and accurate nephrotoxicity prediction for compounds with diverse chemical structures.

Keywords: high content screening, in vitro models, nephrotoxicity, toxicity prediction

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Authors: Ashish James, Anusha James

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The impressive predictive performance of deep learning techniques on a wide range of tasks has led to its widespread use. Estimating the confidence of these predictions is paramount for improving the safety and reliability of such systems. However, the uncertainty estimates provided by neural networks (NNs) tend to be overconfident and unreasonable. Ensemble of NNs typically produce good predictions but uncertainty estimates tend to be inconsistent. Inspired by these, this paper presents a framework that can quantitatively estimate the uncertainties by leveraging the advances in transfer learning through slight modification to the existing training pipelines. This promising algorithm is developed with an intention of deployment in real world problems which already boast a good predictive performance by reusing those pretrained models. The idea is to capture the behavior of the trained NNs for the base task by augmenting it with the uncertainty estimates from a supplementary network. A series of experiments with known and unknown distributions show that the proposed approach produces well calibrated uncertainty estimates with high quality predictions.

Keywords: uncertainty estimation, neural networks, transfer learning, regression

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Authors: Neha Singh, Ananya Arora

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Facial expression measurement plays a crucial role in the identification of emotion. Facial expression plays a key role in psychophysiology, neural bases, and emotional disorder, to name a few. The Facial Action Coding System (FACS) has proven to be the most efficient and widely used of the various systems used to describe facial expressions. Coders can manually code facial expressions with FACS and, by viewing video-recorded facial behaviour at a specified frame rate and slow motion, can decompose into action units (AUs). Action units are the most minor visually discriminable facial movements. FACS explicitly differentiates between facial actions and inferences about what the actions mean. Action units are the fundamental unit of FACS methodology. It is regarded as the standard measure for facial behaviour and finds its application in various fields of study beyond emotion science. These include facial neuromuscular disorders, neuroscience, computer vision, computer graphics and animation, and face encoding for digital processing. This paper discusses the conceptual basis for FACS, a numerical listing of discrete facial movements identified by the system, the system's psychometric evaluation, and the software's recommended training requirements.

Keywords: facial action, action units, coding, machine learning

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Authors: Cecília M. Antão, Paulo Jorge Nogueira

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Breast cancer (BC) is the first cause of cancer mortality among Portuguese women. This retrospective observational study aimed at identifying comorbidities associated with BC female patients admitted to Portuguese public hospitals (2010-2018), investigating the effect of comorbidities on BC mortality rate, and building a predictive model using logistic regression. Results showed that the BC mortality in Portugal decreased in this period and reached 4.37% in 2018. Adjusted odds ratio indicated that secondary malignant neoplasms of liver, of bone and bone marrow, congestive heart failure, and diabetes were associated with an increased chance of dying from breast cancer. Although the Lisbon district (the most populated area) accounted for the largest percentage of BC patients, the logistic regression model showed that, besides patient’s age, being resident in Bragança, Castelo Branco, or Porto districts was directly associated with an increase of the mortality rate.

Keywords: breast cancer, comorbidities, logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio

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Authors: P. Wlodarczak, J. Soar, M. Ally

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The dramatic rise in the use of Social Media (SM) platforms such as Facebook and Twitter provide access to an unprecedented amount of user data. Users may post reviews on products and services they bought, write about their interests, share ideas or give their opinions and views on political issues. There is a growing interest in the analysis of SM data from organisations for detecting new trends, obtaining user opinions on their products and services or finding out about their online reputations. A recent research trend in SM analysis is making predictions based on sentiment analysis of SM. Often indicators of historic SM data are represented as time series and correlated with a variety of real world phenomena like the outcome of elections, the development of financial indicators, box office revenue and disease outbreaks. This paper examines the current state of research in the area of SM mining and predictive analysis and gives an overview of the analysis methods using opinion mining and machine learning techniques.

Keywords: social media, text mining, knowledge discovery, predictive analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Cathal Ffrench, Ryan Barrett, Mike Quayle

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It is accepted in social psychology that categorization leads to ingroup favoritism, without further thought given to the processes that may co-occur or even precede categorization. These categorizations move away from the conceptualization of the self as a unique social being toward an increasingly collective identity. Subsequently, many individuals derive much of their self-evaluations from these collective identities. The seminal literature on this topic argues that it is primarily categorization that evokes instances of ingroup favoritism. Apropos to these theories, we argue that categorization acts to enhance and further intergroup processes rather than defining them. More accurately, we propose categorization aids initial ingroup contact and this first contact is predictive of subsequent favoritism on individual and collective levels. This analysis focuses on Virtual Interaction APPLication (VIAPPL) based studies, a software interface that builds on the flaws of the original minimal group studies. The VIAPPL allows the exchange of tokens in an intra and inter-group manner. This token exchange is how we classified the first contact. The study involves binary longitudinal analysis to better understand the subsequent exchanges of individuals based on who they first interacted with. Studies were selected on the criteria of evidence of explicit first interactions and two-group designs. Our findings paint a compelling picture in support of a motivated contact hypothesis, which suggests that an individual’s first motivated contact toward another has strong predictive capabilities for future behavior. This contact can lead to habit formation and specific favoritism towards individuals where contact has been established. This has important implications for understanding how group conflict occurs, and how intra-group individual bias can develop.

Keywords: categorization, group dynamics, initial contact, minimal social networks, momentary contact

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: price-optimal building climate control, Microgrid power flow optimisation, hierarchical model predictive control, energy efficient buildings, energy market participation

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Authors: Nan Stevens

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Photo-voice is a participatory method through which participants identify and represent their lived experiences and contexts through the use of photo imagery. Photo-voice is a qualitative research method that explores individuals’ lived experiences. This method is known as a creative art form to help researchers listen to the 'voice' of a certain population. A teacher educator at Thompson Rivers University, responsible for preparing new teachers for the demands of the profession in an ever-changing demographic, utilized the Photo-voice method to enable a self-study of emerging teachers’ readiness for the inclusive classroom. Coding analysis was applied to 96 Photo-voice portfolios, which were created over two years with the Inclusive Education course work, in a Bachelor of Education program (Elementary). Coding utilized students’ written associations to their visual images, anecdotes attached to visual metaphors, and personal narratives that illustrated the professional development process in which they were engaged. Thematic findings include: 1) becoming an inclusive educator is a process; 2) one must be open to identifying and exploring their fear and biases, and 3) an attitudinal shift enables relevant skill acquisition and readiness for working with diverse student needs.

Keywords: teacher education, inclusive education, professional development, Photo-voice

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Authors: Fatemeh Havas Beigi

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The purpose of this study is to identify the objectives of a multicultural curriculum for the primary education period from the perspective of ethnic teachers and education experts and cultural professionals. The research paradigm is interpretive, the research approach is qualitative, the research strategy is content analysis, the sampling method is purposeful and it is a snowball, and the sample of informants in the research for Iranian ethnic teachers and experts until the theoretical saturation was estimated to be 67 people. The data collection tools used were based on semi-structured interviews and individual interviews and focal interviews were used to collect information. The data format was also in audio format and the first period coding and the second coding were used to analyze the data. Based on data analysis 11 Objective: Paying attention to ethnic equality, expanding educational opportunities and justice, peaceful coexistence, anti-ethnic and racial discrimination education, paying attention to human value and dignity, accepting religious diversity, getting to know ethnicities and cultures, promoting teaching-learning, fostering self-confidence, building national unity, and developing cultural commonalities for a multicultural curriculum were identified.

Keywords: objective, multicultural curriculum, connect, elementary education period

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Authors: Matteo Calabrese, Martin Cimmino, Dimos Kapetis, Martina Manfrin, Donato Concilio, Giuseppe Toscano, Giovanni Ciandrini, Giancarlo Paccapeli, Gianluca Giarratana, Marco Siciliano, Andrea Forlani, Alberto Carrotta

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In this paper we describe a machine learning methodology for Predictive Maintenance (PdM) applied on woodworking industrial machines. PdM is a prominent strategy consisting of all the operational techniques and actions required to ensure machine availability and to prevent a machine-down failure. One of the challenges with PdM approach is to design and develop of an embedded smart system to enable the health status of the machine. The proposed approach allows screening simultaneously multiple connected machines, thus providing real-time monitoring that can be adopted with maintenance management. This is achieved by applying temporal feature engineering techniques and training an ensemble of classification algorithms to predict Remaining Useful Lifetime of woodworking machines. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by testing an independent sample of additional woodworking machines without presenting machine down event.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, machine learning, connected machines, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Duncan Oteki, Andebut Yeneneh, Daba Gedafa, Nabil Suleiman

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Most agencies lack the equipment required to measure the dynamic modulus (|E*|) of asphalt mixtures, necessitating the need to use predictive models. This study compared measured |E*| values for nine North Dakota asphalt mixes using the original Witczak, modified Witczak, and Hirsch models. The influence of temperature on the |E*| models was investigated, and Pavement ME simulations were conducted using measured |E*| and predictions from the most accurate |E*| model. The results revealed that the original Witczak model yielded the lowest Se/Sy and highest R² values, indicating the lowest bias and highest accuracy, while the poorest overall performance was exhibited by the Hirsch model. Using predicted |E*| as inputs in the Pavement ME generated conservative distress predictions compared to using measured |E*|. The original Witczak model was recommended for predicting |E*| for low-reliability pavements in North Dakota.

Keywords: asphalt mixture, binder, dynamic modulus, MEPDG, pavement ME, performance, prediction

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Authors: Thanooja Naushad, Meena Natarajan, Tushar Vasant Kulkarni

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Background: The Lacey Assessment of Preterm Infants (LAPI) is used in clinical practice to identify premature babies at risk of neuromotor impairments, especially cerebral palsy. This study attempted to find the validity of the Lacey assessment of preterm infants to predict neuromotor outcomes of premature babies at 12 months corrected age and to compare its predictive ability with the brain ultrasound. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 89 preterm infants (45 females and 44 males) born below 35 weeks gestation who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of a government hospital in Dubai. Initial assessment was done using the Lacey assessment after the babies reached 33 weeks postmenstrual age. Follow up assessment on neuromotor outcomes was done at 12 months (± 1 week) corrected age using two standardized outcome measures, i.e., infant neurological international battery and Alberta infant motor scale. Brain ultrasound data were collected retrospectively. Data were statistically analyzed, and the diagnostic accuracy of the Lacey assessment of preterm infants (LAPI) was calculated -when used alone and in combination with the brain ultrasound. Results: On comparison with brain ultrasound, the Lacey assessment showed superior specificity (96% vs. 77%), higher positive predictive value (57% vs. 22%), and higher positive likelihood ratio (18 vs. 3) to predict neuromotor outcomes at one year of age. The sensitivity of Lacey assessment was lower than brain ultrasound (66% vs. 83%), whereas specificity was similar (97% vs. 98%). A combination of Lacey assessment and brain ultrasound results showed higher sensitivity (80%), positive (66%), and negative (98%) predictive values, positive likelihood ratio (24), and test accuracy (95%) than Lacey assessment alone in predicting neurological outcomes. The negative predictive value of the Lacey assessment was similar to that of its combination with brain ultrasound (96%). Conclusion: Results of this study suggest that the Lacey assessment of preterm infants can be used as a supplementary assessment tool for premature babies in the neonatal intensive care unit. Due to its high specificity, Lacey assessment can be used to identify those babies at low risk of abnormal neuromotor outcomes at a later age. When used along with the findings of the brain ultrasound, Lacey assessment has better sensitivity to identify preterm babies at particular risk. These findings have applications in identifying premature babies who may benefit from early intervention services.

Keywords: brain ultrasound, lacey assessment of preterm infants, neuromotor outcomes, preterm

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Authors: Melissa C. Monney

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Psychological testing has been of interest to researchers for many years as useful tools in assessing and diagnosing various disorders as well as to assist in understanding human behavior. However, for over 20 years now, researchers and laypersons alike have been interested in using them for other purposes, such as determining factors in employee selection, promotion, and even termination. In recent years, psychological assessments have been useful in facilitating workplace decision processing, regarding employee circulation within organizations. This literature review explores four of the most commonly used psychological tests in workplace environments, namely cognitive ability, emotional intelligence, integrity, and personality tests, as organizations have used these tests to assess different factors of human behavior as predictive measures of future employee behaviors. The findings suggest that while there is much controversy and debate regarding the validity and reliability of these tests in workplace settings as they were not originally designed for these purposes, the use of such assessments in the workplace has been useful in decreasing costs and employee turnover as well as increase job satisfaction by ensuring the right employees are selected for their roles.

Keywords: cognitive ability, personality testing, predictive validity, workplace behavior

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Authors: Pei-Jun Xue, Ming-Yu Hsiao

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Language is the emblem of a culture, representing the extension of cultural life. In addition, it is also an important tool for communication and message transmission. It carries not only information but also covers the self-conscious of the information constructor as well as the situational experiences of users from different backgrounds. Moreover, design can be regarded as a language, a dynamic process of coding and decoding. With the designers’ experiences in everyday life, they bring them into the products’ experiences. Considered from the aspects of atmosphere and the five senses, a designer should consider and reconsider how to communicate the messages effectively to suit the users’ needs. In the process of language learning, we should understand the construction behind it and the rules of the compositions of language codes. Regarding the understanding of the design of works or the form of product construction, it is necessary for us to understand the coding system during the process of product construction. The form (signifiers) and meanings (signified) of Chinese characters are closely related. At the same time, it is also a process of simplifying the complicated to the simple. This study discusses the chinese characters that used in the cultural symbols construction, and analysis of existing products by Peirce's semiotic triangles. Through people's cognition of Chinese characters and constitute method, help to understand the way of construction product symbol.

Keywords: cultural-creative product design, cultural product, cultural symbols, linguistic symbols

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Authors: Ashish Ashish

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In the last few decades, the discrete chaos of difference equations has gained a massive attention of academicians and scholars due to its tremendous applications in each and every branch of science, such as cryptography, traffic control models, secure communications, weather forecasting, and engineering. In this article, a generalized logistic discrete map is established and discrete chaos is reported through period doubling bifurcation, period three orbit and Lyapunov exponent. It is interesting to see that the generalized logistic map exhibits superior chaos due to the presence of an extra degree of freedom of an ordered parameter. The period doubling bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent are demonstrated for some particular values of parameter and the discrete chaos is determined in the sense of Devaney's definition of chaos theoretically as well as numerically. Moreover, the study discusses an extended chaos based image encryption and decryption scheme in cryptography using this novel system. Surprisingly, a larger key space for coding and more sensitive dependence on initial conditions are examined for encryption and decryption of text messages, images and videos which secure the system strongly from external cyber attacks, coding attacks, statistic attacks and differential attacks.

Keywords: chaos, period-doubling, logistic map, Lyapunov exponent, image encryption

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Authors: Angela Odero, Chrysoula Karathanasi, Michèle Baumann

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Integration of foreign communities has been a forefront issue in Luxembourg for some time now. The country’s continued progress depends largely on the successful integration of immigrants. The aim of our study was to analyze factors which intervene in the course of integration of Non-EU citizens through the discourse of Non-EU citizens residing in Luxembourg, who have signed the Welcome and Integration Contract (CAI). The two-year contract offers integration services to assist foreigners in getting settled in the country. Semi-structured focus group discussions with 50 volunteers were held in English, French, Spanish, Serbo-Croatian or Chinese. Participants were asked to talk about their integration experiences. Recorded then transcribed, the transcriptions were analyzed with the help of NVivo 10, a qualitative analysis software. A systematic and reiterative analysis of decomposing and reconstituting was realized through (1) the identification of predetermined categories (difficulties, challenges and integration needs) (2) initial coding – the grouping together of similar ideas (3) axial coding – the regrouping of items from the initial coding in new ways in order to create sub-categories and identify other core dimensions. Our results show that intervening factors include language acquisition, professional career and socio-cultural activities or events. Each of these factors constitutes different components whose weight shifts from person to person and from situation to situation. Connecting these three emergent factors are two elements essential to the success of the immigrant’s integration – the role of time and deliberate effort from the immigrants, the community, and the formal institutions charged with helping immigrants integrate. We propose a theoretical model where the factors described may be classified in terms of how they predispose, facilitate, and / or reinforce the process towards a successful integration. Measures currently in place propose one size fits all programs yet integrative measures which target the family unit and those customized to target groups based on their needs would work best.

Keywords: integration, integration services, non-eu citizens, qualitative analysis, third country nationals

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Authors: Najib K. Dankadai, Ahmad 'Athif Mohd Faudzi, Khairuddin Osman, Muhammad Rusydi Muhammad Razif, IIi Najaa Aimi Mohd Nordin

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Researches in soft actuators are now growing rapidly because of their adequacy to be applied in sectors like medical, agriculture, biological and welfare. This paper presents system identification (SI) and control of the force generated by a two chambers pneumatic soft actuator (PSA). A force mathematical model for the actuator was identified experimentally using data acquisition card and MATLAB SI toolbox. Two control techniques; a predictive functional control (PFC) and conventional proportional integral and derivative (PID) schemes are proposed and compared based on the identified model for the soft actuator flexible mechanism. Results of this study showed that both of the proposed controllers ensure accurate tracking when the closed loop system was tested with the step, sinusoidal and multi step reference input through MATLAB simulation although the PFC provides a better response than the PID.

Keywords: predictive functional control (PFC), proportional integral and derivative (PID), soft actuator, system identification

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Authors: Jacky Liu

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This paper develops a team sports outcome prediction system with potential for wide-ranging applications across various disciplines. Despite significant advancements in predictive analytics, existing studies in sports outcome predictions possess considerable limitations, including insufficient feature engineering and underutilization of advanced machine learning techniques, among others. To address these issues, we extend the Sports Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (SRP-CRISP-DM) framework and propose a unique, comprehensive predictive system, using National Basketball Association (NBA) data as an example to test this extended framework. Our approach follows a holistic methodology in feature engineering, employing both Time Series and Non-Time Series Data, as well as conducting Explanatory Data Analysis and Feature Selection. Furthermore, we contribute to the discourse on target variable choice in team sports outcome prediction, asserting that point spread prediction yields higher profits as opposed to game-winner predictions. Using machine learning algorithms, particularly XGBoost, results in a significant improvement in predictive accuracy of team sports outcomes. Applied to point spread betting strategies, it offers an astounding annual return of approximately 900% on an initial investment of $100. Our findings not only contribute to academic literature, but have critical practical implications for sports betting. Our study advances the understanding of team sports outcome prediction a burgeoning are in complex system predictions and pave the way for potential profitability and more informed decision making in sports betting markets.

Keywords: machine learning, team sports, game outcome prediction, sports betting, profits simulation

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Authors: Vishwesh Kulkarni, Nikhil Bellarykar

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Cellular complexity stems from the interactions among thousands of different molecular species. Thanks to the emerging fields of systems and synthetic biology, scientists are beginning to unravel these regulatory, signaling, and metabolic interactions and to understand their coordinated action. Reverse engineering of biological networks has has several benefits but a poor quality of data combined with the difficulty in reproducing it limits the applicability of these methods. A few years back, many of the commonly used predictive algorithms were tested on a network constructed in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae) to resolve this issue. The network was a synthetic network of five genes regulating each other for the so-called in vivo reverse-engineering and modeling assessment (IRMA). The network was constructed in S. cereviase since it is a simple and well characterized organism. The synthetic network included a variety of regulatory interactions, thus capturing the behaviour of larger eukaryotic gene networks on a smaller scale. We derive a new set of algorithms by solving a nonlinear optimization problem and show how these algorithms outperform other algorithms on these datasets.

Keywords: synthetic gene network, network identification, optimization, nonlinear modeling

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Authors: Phakamani Xaba, Robert Huberts, Bilainu Oboirien

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The present study was aimed at developing & comparing two neural-network-based predictive models to predict shelf-life/product age of South African margarine using free fatty acid (FFA), water droplet size (D3.3), water droplet distribution (e-sigma), moisture content, peroxide value (PV), anisidine valve (AnV) and total oxidation (totox) value as input variables to the model. Brick margarine products which had varying ages ranging from fresh i.e. week 0 to week 47 were sourced. The brick margarine products which had been stored at 10 & 25 °C and were characterized. JMP and MATLAB models to predict shelf-life/ margarine age were developed and their performances were compared. The key performance indicators to evaluate the model performances were correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) relative to the actual data. The MATLAB-developed model showed a better performance in all three performance indicators. The correlation coefficient of the MATLAB model was 99.86% versus 99.74% for the JMP model, the RMSE was 0.720 compared to 1.005 and the MAPE was 7.4% compared to 8.571%. The MATLAB model was selected to be the most accurate, and then, the number of hidden neurons/ nodes was optimized to develop a single predictive model. The optimized MATLAB with 10 neurons showed a better performance compared to the models with 1 & 5 hidden neurons. The developed models can be used by margarine manufacturers, food research institutions, researchers etc, to predict shelf-life/ margarine product age, optimize addition of antioxidants, extend shelf-life of products and proactively troubleshoot for problems related to changes which have an impact on shelf-life of margarine without conducting expensive trials.

Keywords: margarine shelf-life, predictive modelling, neural networks, oil oxidation

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Authors: Haonan Hu, Shuge Lei, Dasheng Sun, Huabin Zhang, Kehong Yuan, Jian Dai, Jijun Tang

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This paper focuses on the classification task of breast ultrasound images and conducts research on the reliability measurement of classification results. A dual-channel evaluation framework was developed based on the proposed inference reliability and predictive reliability scores. For the inference reliability evaluation, human-aligned and doctor-agreed inference rationals based on the improved feature attribution algorithm SP-RISA are gracefully applied. Uncertainty quantification is used to evaluate the predictive reliability via the test time enhancement. The effectiveness of this reliability evaluation framework has been verified on the breast ultrasound clinical dataset YBUS, and its robustness is verified on the public dataset BUSI. The expected calibration errors on both datasets are significantly lower than traditional evaluation methods, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed reliability measurement.

Keywords: medical imaging, ultrasound imaging, XAI, uncertainty measurement, trustworthy AI

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Authors: Nasim Nosoudi, Amir Zadeh, Hunter White, Joshua Conrad, Joon W. Shim

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De novo Malignancy has become one of the major causes of death after transplantation, so early cancer diagnosis and detection can drastically improve survival rates post-transplantation. Most previous work focuses on using artificial intelligence (AI) to predict transplant success or failure outcomes. In this work, we focused on predicting de novo malignancy after liver transplantation using AI. We chose the patients that had malignancy after liver transplantation with no history of malignancy pre-transplant. Their donors were cancer-free as well. We analyzed 254,200 patient profiles with post-transplant malignancy from the US Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN). Several popular data mining methods were applied to the resultant dataset to build predictive models to characterize de novo malignancy after liver transplantation. Recipient's bilirubin, creatinine, weight, gender, number of days recipient was on the transplant waiting list, Epstein Barr Virus (EBV), International normalized ratio (INR), and ascites are among the most important factors affecting de novo malignancy after liver transplantation

Keywords: De novo malignancy, bilirubin, data mining, transplantation

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Authors: Gizem Akcan, Erdinc Ozturk

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The purpose of the study was to determine some psychosocial variables that predict dissociation in university students. These psychosocial variables were perceived childhood trauma, alexithymia, and gender. 150 (75 males, 75 females) university students (bachelor, master and postgraduate) were enrolled in this study. They were chosen from universities in Istanbul at the education year of 2016-2017. Dissociative Experiences Scale (DES), Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and Toronto Alexithymia Scale were used to assess related variables. Demographic Information Form was given to students in order to have their demographic information. Frequency Distribution, Linear Regression Analysis, and t-test analysis were used for statistical analysis. Childhood trauma and alexithymia were found to have predictive value on dissociation among university students. However, physical abuse, physical neglect and emotional neglect sub dimensions of childhood trauma and externally-oriented thinking sub dimension of alexithymia did not have predictive value on dissociation. Moreover, there was no significant difference between males and females in terms of dissociation scores of participants.

Keywords: childhood trauma, dissociation, alexithymia, gender

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Sharmistha Chanda, Anindita Choudhuri

Abstract:

This exploratory study highlights the psychological aspects of women's empowerment to find the importance of the psychological dimension of empowerment, such as; meaning, competence, self-determination, impact, and assumption, especially in the weaker marginalized section of women. A large proportion of rural, suburban, and urban poor survive by working in unorganized sectors of metropolitan cities. Relative Poverty and lack of employment in rural areas and small towns drive many people to the metropolitan city for work and livelihood. Women working in that field remain unrecognized as people of low socio-economic status. They are usually willing to do domestic work as daily wage workers, single wage earners, street vendors, family businesses like agricultural activities, domestic workers, and self-employed. Usually, these women accept such jobs because they do not have such an opportunity as they lack the basic level of education that is required for better-paid jobs. The unorganized sector, on the other hand, has no such clear-cut employer-employee relationships and lacks most forms of social protection. Having no fixed employer, these workers are casual, contractual, migrant, home-based, own-account workers who attempt to earn a living from whatever meager assets and skills they possess. Women have become more empowered both financially and individually through small-scale business ownership or entrepreneurship development and in household-based work. In-depth interviews have been done with 10 participants in order to understand their living styles, habits, self-identity, and empowerment in their society in order to evaluate the key challenges that they may face following by qualitative research approach. Transcription has been done from the collected data. The three-layer coding technique guides the data analysis process, encompassing – open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. Women’s Entrepreneurship is one of the foremost concerns as the Government, and non-government institutions are readily serving this domain with the primary objectives of promoting self-employment opportunities in general and empowering women in specific. Thus, despite hardship and unrecognition unorganized sector provides a huge array of opportunities for rural and sub-urban poor to earn. Also, the upper section of society tends to depend on this working force. This study gave an idea about the well-being, and meaning in life, life satisfaction on the basis of their lived experience.

Keywords: marginalized women, psychological empowerment, relative poverty, unorganized sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Luanna B. Prevost, Kelli Carter, Margaurete Romero, Kirsti Martinez

Abstract:

Writing is an essential scientific practice, yet, in several countries, the increasing university science class-size limits the use of written assessments. Written assessments allow students to demonstrate their learning in their own words and permit the faculty to evaluate students’ understanding. However, the time and resources required to grade written assessments prohibit their use in large-enrollment science courses. This study examined the use of machine learning algorithms to automatically analyze student writing and provide timely feedback to the faculty about students' writing in biology. Written responses to questions about matter and energy transformation were collected from large-enrollment undergraduate introductory biology classrooms. Responses were analyzed using the LightSide text mining and classification software. Cohen’s Kappa was used to measure agreement between the LightSide models and human raters. Predictive models achieved agreement with human coding of 0.7 Cohen’s Kappa or greater. Models captured that when writing about matter-energy transformation at the ecosystem level, students focused on primarily on the concepts of heat loss, recycling of matter, and conservation of matter and energy. Models were also produced to capture writing about processes such as decomposition and biochemical cycling. The models created in this study can be used to provide automatic feedback about students understanding of these concepts to biology faculty who desire to use formative written assessments in larger enrollment biology classes, but do not have the time or personnel for manual grading.

Keywords: machine learning, written assessment, biology education, text mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Masood Roohi, Amir Taghavipour

Abstract:

This paper describes a strategy to develop an energy management system (EMS) for a charge-sustaining power-split hybrid electric vehicle. This kind of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) benefit from the advantages of both parallel and series architecture. However, it gets relatively more complicated to manage power flow between the battery and the engine optimally. The applied strategy in this paper is based on nonlinear model predictive control approach. First of all, an appropriate control-oriented model which was accurate enough and simple was derived. Towards utilization of this controller in real-time, the problem was solved off-line for a vast area of reference signals and initial conditions and stored the computed manipulated variables inside look-up tables. Look-up tables take a little amount of memory. Also, the computational load dramatically decreased, because to find required manipulated variables the controller just needed a simple interpolation between tables.

Keywords: hybrid electric vehicles, energy management system, nonlinear model predictive control, real-time

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Sharmistha Chanda, Anindita Chaudhuri

Abstract:

This exploratory study highlights the psychological aspects of women's empowerment to find the importance of the psychological dimension of empowerment, such as; meaning, competence, self-determination, impact, and assumption, especially in the weaker marginalized section of women. A large proportion of rural, suburban, and urban poor survive by working in unorganized sectors of metropolitan cities. Relative Poverty and lack of employment in rural areas and small towns drive many people to the metropolitan city for work and livelihood. Women working in that field remain unrecognized as people of low socio-economic status. They are usually willing to do domestic work as daily wage workers, single wage earners, street vendors, family businesses like agricultural activities, domestic workers, and self-employed. Usually, these women accept such jobs because they do not have such an opportunity as they lack the basic level of education that is required for better-paid jobs. The unorganized sector, on the other hand, has no such clear-cut employer-employee relationships and lacks most forms of social protection. Having no fixed employer, these workers are casual, contractual, migrant, home-based, own-account workers who attempt to earn a living from whatever meager assets and skills they possess. Women have become more empowered both financially and individually through small-scale business ownership or entrepreneurship development and in household-based work. In-depth interviews have been done with 10 participants in order to understand their living styles, habits, self-identity, and empowerment in their society in order to evaluate the key challenges that they may face following by qualitative research approach. Transcription has been done from the collected data. The three-layer coding technique guides the data analysis process, encompassing – open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. Women’s Entrepreneurship is one of the foremost concerns as the Government, and non-government institutions are readily serving this domain with the primary objectives of promoting self-employment opportunities in general and empowering women in specific. Thus, despite hardship and unrecognition unorganized sector provides a huge array of opportunities for rural and sub-urban poor to earn. Also, the upper section of society tends to depend on this working force. This study gave an idea about the well-being, and meaning in life, life satisfaction on the basis of their lived experience.

Keywords: marginalized women, psychological empowerment, relative poverty, and unorganized sector.

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228