Search results for: highfrequency risk factor collections

Authors: Nikolaus Wilke, Boaz Paz

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Museum staff, conservators, restorers, curators, registrars, art handlers but potentially also museum visitors are often exposed to the harmful effects of biocides, which have been applied to collections in the past for the protection and preservation of cultural heritage. Due to stable light, moisture, and temperature conditions, the biocidal active ingredients were preserved for much longer than originally assumed by chemists, pest controllers, and museum scientists. Given the requirements to minimize the use and handling of toxic substances and the obligations of employers regarding safe working environments for their employees, but also for visitors, the museum sector worldwide needs adequate decontamination solutions. Today there are millions of contaminated objects in museums. This paper introduces the results of a systematic investigation into the reduction rate of biocide contamination in various organic materials that were treated with the humidity and temperature controlled ICM (Integrated Contamination Management) method. In the past, collections were treated with a wide range, at times even with a combination of toxins, either preventively or to eliminate active insect or fungi infestations. It was only later that most of those toxins were recognized as CMR (cancerogenic mutagen reprotoxic) substances. Among them were numerous chemical substances that are banned today because of their toxicity. While the biocidal effect of inorganic salts such as arsenic (arsenic(III) oxide), sublimate (mercury(II) chloride), copper oxychloride (basic copper chloride) and zinc chloride was known very early on, organic tar distillates such as paradichlorobenzene, carbolineum, creosote and naphthalene were increasingly used from the 19th century onwards, especially as wood preservatives. With the rapid development of organic synthesis chemistry in the 20th century and the development of highly effective warfare agents, pesticides and fungicides, these substances were replaced by chlorogenic compounds (e.g. γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (lindane), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), pentachlorophenol (PCP), hormone-like derivatives such as synthetic pyrethroids (e.g., permethrin, deltamethrin, cyfluthrin) and phosphoric acid esters (e.g., dichlorvos, chlorpyrifos). Today we know that textile artifacts (costumes, uniforms, carpets, tapestries), wooden objects, herbaria, libraries, archives and historical wall decorations made of fabric, paper and leather were also widely treated with toxic inorganic and organic substances. The migration (emission) of pollutants from the contaminated objects leads to continuous (secondary) contamination and accumulation in the indoor air and dust. It is important to note that many of mentioned toxic substances are also material-damaging; they cause discoloration and corrosion. Some, such as DDT, form crystals, which in turn can cause micro tectonic, destructive shifting, for example, in paint layers. Museums must integrate sustainable solutions to address the residual biocide problems already in the planning phase. Gas and dust phase measurements and analysis must become standard as well as methods of decontamination.

Keywords: biocides, decontamination, museum collections, toxic substances in museums

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Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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Authors: Hamed Alipour-Banaei, Farhad Mehdizadeh

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We report the design and characterization of ultra high quality factor filter based on one-dimensional photonic-crystal Thue-Morse sequence structure. The behavior of aperiodic array of photonic crystal structure is numerically investigated and we show that by changing the angle of incident wave, desired wavelengths could be tuned and a tunable filter is realized. Also it is shown that high quality factor filter be achieved in the telecommunication window around 1550 nm, with a device based on Thue-Morse structure. Simulation results show that the proposed structure has a quality factor more than 100000 and it is suitable for DWDM communication applications.

Keywords: Thue-Morse, filter, quality factor, photonic

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Authors: Noor A. Hakim

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Several studies in the developed countries investigated the prevalence of diabetes and obesity among individuals from different socioeconomic levels and suggested lower rates among the higher socioeconomic groups. However, studies evaluating diabetes risk and prevalence of obesity among the population of middle- to high-income status in developing countries are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the weight status of female students in private universities in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. This is a cross-sectional study of 121 female students aged ≤ 25 years old was conducted; participants were recruited from two private universities. Diabetes risk was evaluated using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Anthropometric measurements were assessed, and body-mass-index (BMI) was calculated. Diabetes risk scores indicated that 35.5% of the female students had a slightly elevated risk, and 10.8% had a moderate to high risk to develop T2DM. One-third of the females (29.7%) were overweight or obese. The majority of the normal weight and underweight groups were classified to have a low risk of diabetes, 22.2% of the overweight participants were classified to have moderate to high risk, and over half of the obese participants (55.5%) were classified to be at the moderate to high-risk category. Conclusions: Given that diabetes risk is alarming among the population in Saudi Arabia, healthcare providers should utilize a simple screening tool to identify high-risk individuals and initiate diabetes preventive strategies to prevent, or delay, the onset of T2DM and improve the quality of life.

Keywords: risk of type 2 diabetes, weight status, college students, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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Authors: Tio Novita Efriani

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Public sector organizations work in a complex and risky environment. Since the beginning of 2000s, the public sector has paid attention to the need for an effective risk management. The Indonesian public sector has also concerned about this issue and in 2008 it enacted the Government Regulation that gives mandate for the implementation of risk management in government organizations. This paper investigates risk management implementation in the Indonesian public sector organizations and the role of transformational leadership and internal audit activities. Data was collected via survey. A total of 202 effective responses (30% response rate) from employees in 34 government ministries were statistically analyzed by using Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and the software was SmartPLS 3.0. All the constructs were lower order, except for the risk management implementation construct, which was treated as a second-order construct. A two-stage approach was employed in the analysis of the higher order component. The findings revealed that transformational leadership positively influence risk management implementation. The findings also found that the core and legitimate roles of internal audit in risk management positively affect the implementation of risk management. The final finding showed that internal auditing mediates a relationship between transformational leadership and risk management implementation. These results suggest that the implementation of risk management in the Indonesian public sector was significantly supported by internal auditors and leadership. The findings confirm the importance of transformational leadership and internal audit in the public sector risk management strategies.

Keywords: Indonesian public sector, internal audit, risk management, transformational leadership

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Authors: Nilamadhab Mohanty

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It is essential to use message formats that make communication understandable and correct. It is because; the information format can influence consumer decision on the purchase of a product. This study combines information from qualitative inquiry, media trend analysis, eye tracking experiment, and questionnaire data to examine the impact of specific message format and consumer perceived risk on attention to the information and risk retention. We investigated the influence of message framing (goal framing, attribute framing, and mix framing) on consumer memory, study time, and decisional uncertainty while deciding on the purchase of drugs. Furthermore, we explored the impact of consumer perceived risk (associated with the use of the drug, i.e., RISK-AB and perceived risk associated with the non-use of the drug, i.e., RISK-EB) on message format preference. The study used eye-tracking methods to understand the differences in message processing. Findings of the study suggest that the message format influences information processing, and participants' risk perception impacts message format preference. Eye tracking can be used to understand the format differences and design effective advertisements.

Keywords: message framing, consumer perceived risk, advertising, eye tracking

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Authors: Pin-Hua Chou

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MACAN (Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art in Nusantara) is a new private art museum in Jakarta, Indonesia. Facing challenges of rapidly changing social, cultural environments, MACAN is responding by devoting themselves to not only presenting famous international artists but also constructing the context of artists from Indonesia by interdisciplinary education and cultural exchange. This paper discusses the exhibitions, collections and the activities of MACAN. The purpose of this museum is to make people aware of the dialogue between local and international artist, and also Indonesia’s own art history. Yet how they build up the cultural consciousness for their audience inside and outside Indonesia? What strategy or method do they adapt to enhance general understanding of their own history and the relation between Indonesia and the world through their exhibition? MACAN has tried to convey their mission by every action they took since its opening (2017). The discussion begins with the premise that the initiative of MACAN offers us a new vision to better understand how a modern and contemporary art museum can make an effort to connect art with cultural identity and stimulate the awareness of recognition in Indonesia. This paper will adopt a case study, curator interview, and document analysis. Last but not least, the paper seeks to contribute towards the narrative of its first exhibition Art Turns, World Turns, Exploring the collection of the MACAN, as well as the possibility of raising audience’s cultural consciousness by a variety of public programs.

Keywords: contemporary art museum, challenges for art museum curators today, culture heritage, museum collections and exhibitions

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Authors: Jolien Rijlaarsdam, Charlotte A. M. Cecil, J. Marieke Buil, Pol A. C. Van Lier, Edward D. Barker

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Although there is mounting evidence that the experience of being bullied associates with both internalizing and externalizing symptoms, it is not known yet whether the identified associations are specific to these symptoms or shared between them. The primary focus of this study is to assess the prospective associations of bullying exposure with both general and specific (i.e., internalizing, externalizing) factors of psychopathology. This study included data from 6,210 children participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Child bullying was measured by self-report at ages 8 and 10 years. Child psychopathology symptoms were assessed by parent-interview, using the Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA) at ages 7 and 13 years. Bullying exposure is significantly associated with the general psychopathology factor in early adolescence. In particular, chronically victimized youth exposed to multiple forms of bullying (i.e., both overt and relational) showed the highest levels of general psychopathology. Bullying exposure is also associated with both internalizing and externalizing factors from the correlated-factors model. However, the effect estimates for these factors decreased considerably in size and dropped to insignificant for the internalizing factor after extracting the shared variance that belongs to the general factor of psychopathology. In an integrative longitudinal model, higher levels of general psychopathology at age seven are associated with bullying exposure at age eight, which, in turn, is associated with general psychopathology at age 13 through its two-year continuity. Findings suggest that exposure to bullying is a risk factor for a more general vulnerability to psychopathology through mutually influencing relationships.

Keywords: bullying exposure, externalizing, general psychopathology, internalizing, longitudinal

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Joshua Midha

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This paper provides an evaluation of an intervention designed to promote a risk-realistic environment for women in the workplace and regulate their risk-related decision-making. In past research, women -specifically women of color- are highly risk-averse, and this may prove to be an innate obstacle in gender progress in corporations. By helping women see the risks and the benefits and increasing potential benefits, we can increase the chances of success in the workplace. Our intervention was a success and significantly increased comfort, trust, and frequency in the use of decision-making skills in the workplace. In this paper, we explore the intervention, the methods, the results, and the implications.

Keywords: behavioral economics, decision support, risk, gender equality

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Authors: Roikhan Mochamad Aziz

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This study aims to analze the interdependence of several variables simultaneously in order to simplify the form of the relationship between some of the variables studied a number of factors less than the variable studied which means it can also describe the data structure of a research. Based 100 respondents from the public, such as the people of South Tangerang, this study used factor analysis tool. The results of this study indicate that the studied variables being formed into nine factors, namely faith factors, community factors, factors of social care, confidence factor, factor income, educational factors, self-satisfaction factors, factors work, and knowledge factor. Total variance of the 9 factors is 67,30% means that all nine of these factors are factors that can contribute too paying zakat of muzakki consciousness of 67,30% while the remaining 32,70% is supported by other factors outside the 9 factors.

Keywords: zakat, analysis factor, faith, education, knowledge

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Authors: Pırıl Tekin, Rızvan Erol

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Risk management has become very important and popular in developing countries in recent years. Especially making patient and employee health and safety issues compulsory in the hospitals, raised the number of studies in Turkey. Also risk management become more important for hospital senior management from clinics to the laboratories. Because quality is really important to be chosen for both patients to consult and employees to prefer to work. And also risk management studies can lead to hospital management team about future works and methods. By this point of view, this study is the risk assessment carried out in the biggest dental hospital in the south part of Turkey. This study was conducted as a research case study, covering two different health care place; A Clinic and A Laboratory. It shows that the problems in this dental hospital and how it can solve all.

Keywords: risk management, healthcare, dental hospital, quality management

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Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. The rationale for implementing a sustained health promoting workplace and participating in SHA is obvious when company management is convinced that healthier employees, business productivity, and profitability are positively correlated. However, performing research or empirical studies on the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock returns are not likely to yield any interests in the absence of a systematic and independent assessment on the comprehensiveness and sustainability of a health promoting workplace in most developed economies. The principles of diversification and mean-variance efficient portfolio in Modern Portfolio Theory developed by Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for the works of many financial economists and researchers, and among others, the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model from the work of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966), and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model of Fama and French (1992). This research seeks to support the rationale by studying whether there is a significant relationship or impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on the performance of companies listed on the SGX. The research shall form and test hypotheses pertaining to the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on company’s performances, including stock returns, of companies that participated in the SHA and companies that did not participate in the SHA. In doing so, the research would be able to determine whether corporate and fund manager should consider the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace as a risk factor to explain the stock returns of companies listed on the SGX. With respect to Singapore’s stock market, this research will test the significance and relevance of a health promoting workplace using the Singapore Health Award as a proxy for non-diversifiable risk factor to explain stock returns. This study will examine the significance of a health promoting workplace on a company’s performance and study its impact on stock price performance and beta and examine if it has higher explanatory power than the traditional single factor asset pricing model CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). To study the significance there are three key questions pertinent to the research study. I) Given a choice, would an investor be better off investing in a listed company with a sustained health promoting workplace i.e. a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? II) The Singapore Health Award has four levels of award starting from Bronze, Silver, Gold to Platinum. Would an investor be indifferent to the level of award when investing in a listed company who is a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? III) Would an asset pricing model combining FAMA-French Three Factor Model and ‘Singapore Health Award’ factor be more accurate than single factor Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Three Factor Model itself?

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock prices, sustained health promoting workplace

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Authors: T. C. Hsu, H. L. Lin

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Taiwan is mountainous country, 70% of land is covered with mountains. Because of extreme climate, the mountain villages with sensitive and fragile environment often get easily affected by inundation and debris flow from typhoon which brings huge rainfall. Due to inappropriate development, overuse and fewer access roads, occurrence of disaster becomes more frequent through downpour and rescue actions are postponed. However, risk map is generally established through administrative boundaries, the difference of urban and rural area is ignored. The neglect of mountain village characteristics eventually underestimates the importance of factors related to vulnerability and reduces the effectiveness. In disaster management, there are different strategies and actions at each stage. According to different tasks, there will be different risk indices and weights to analyze disaster risk for each stage and then it will contribute to confront threat and reduce impact appropriately on right time. Risk map is important in mitigation, but also in response stage because some factors such as road network will be changed by disaster. This study will use risk assessment to establish risk map of Shanlin District which is mountain village in Kaohsiung as a case study in mitigation and response stage through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP helps to recognize the composition and weights of risk factors in mountain village by experts’ opinions through survey design and is combined with present potential hazard map to produce risk map.

Keywords: risk assessment, mountain village, risk map, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Ahmad Dahlan Salleh, Nik Abdul Rahim Nik Abdul Ghani, Muhamad Firdaus M. Hatta

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Risk management has implications on pricing, governance arrangements, business practices and strategy. Nowadays, home financing contract offers more in the risk transfer form to increase bank profit. This is parallel with Islamic jurisprudence method al-Kharaj bi al-thaman (gain accompanies liability for loss) and al-ghurm bil ghunm (gain is justified with risk) that determine the matching between risk transfer and returns. Malaysian financing trend is to buy house. Besides, exists transparency lacking risk transfer issues to the clients because of not been informed clearly. Terms and conditions of each financing also do not reflect clearly that the risk has been transferred to the client, justifying a determination price been made. The assumption on risk occurrence is also inaccurate as each risk is different with the type of financing contract. This makes the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 in providing standards that transparent and consistent can be used by Islamic financial institution less effective. This study examines how far the level of the risk and obligation incurred by bank and client under various Islamic home financing contract. This research is qualitative by using two methods, document analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Document analysis from literature review to identify profile, themes and risk transfer element in home financing from Islamic jurisprudence perspective. This study finds that need to create a risk transfer parameter by banks which are consistent with risk transfer theory according to Islamic jurisprudence. This study has potential to assist the authority in Islamic finance such as The Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) in regulating Islamic banking industry so that the risk transfer valuation in home financing contract based on home financing good practice and determined risk limits.

Keywords: risk transfer, home financing contract, Sharia compliant, Malaysia

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Authors: Kim Kennedy, Daren Gibson, Stephanie Flukes, Chandra Diwakarla, Lisa Spalding, Leanne Pilkington, Andrew Redfern

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Introduction: It is well known that patients with Head and Neck Cancer (HNC) are at increased risk of subsequent head and neck cancers due to various aetiologies. Aim: We sought to determine the factors contributing to an increased risk of subsequent HNC primaries, and also to evaluate whether Aboriginal patients are at increased risk. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 320 HNC patients from a single centre in Western Australia, identifying 80 Aboriginal patients and 240 non-Aboriginal patients matched on a 1:3 ratio by site, histology, rurality, and age. We collected patient data including smoking and alcohol consumption, tumour and treatment data, and data on subsequent HNC primaries. Results: A subsequent HNC primary was seen in 37 patients (11.6%) overall. There was no significant difference in the rate of second primary HNCs between Aboriginal patients (12.5%) and nonAboriginal patients (11.2%) (p=0.408). Subsequent HNCs, were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol consumption however, with 95% of patients with a second primary being ever-smokers, and 54% of patients with a second primary having a history of excessive alcohol consumption. In the 37 patients with multiple HNC primaries, there were a total of 57 HNCs, with 29 patients having two primaries, six patients having 3 HNC primaries, one patient with four, and one with six. 54 out of the 57 cancers were in ever smokers (94.7%). There were only two multiple HNC primaries in a never smoker, non-drinker, and these cases were of unknown etiology with HPV/p16 status unknown in both cases. In the whole study population, there were 32 HPV-positive HNCs, and 67 p16-positive HNCs, with only two 2 nd HNCs in a p16-positive case, giving a rate of 3% in the p16+ population, which is actually much lower than the rate of second primaries seen in the overall population (11.6%), and was highest in the p16-negative population (15.7%). This suggests that p16-positivity is not a strong risk factor for subsequent primaries, and in fact p16-negativity appeared to be associated with increased risk, however this data is limited by the large number of patients without documented p16 status (45.3% overall, 12% for oropharyngeal, and 59.6% for oral cavity primaries had unknown p16 status). Summary: Subsequent HNC primaries were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol excess. Second and later HNC primaries did not appear to occur at increased rates in Aboriginal patients compared with non-Aboriginal patients, and p16-positivity did not predict increased risk, however p16-negativity was associated with an increased risk of subsequent HNCs.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, multiple primaries, aboriginal, p16 status, smoking, alcohol

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

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Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirms the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion, ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: uncertainty, market, orientation, competitor, demand

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Authors: Hamzeh Dodeen

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This study aims at examining the effects of item wording effects on the factor structure of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Loneliness Scale: gender, age, and marital status differences. A total of 2374 persons from the UAE participated, representing six different populations (teenagers/elderly, males/females, and married/unmarried). The results of the exploratory factor analysis using principal axis factoring with (oblique) rotation revealed that two factors were extracted from the 20 items of the scale. The nine positively worded items were highly loaded on the first factor, while 10 out of the 11 negatively worded items were highly loaded on the second factor. The two-factor solution was confirmed on the six different populations based on age, gender, and marital status. It has been concluded that the rating of the UCLA scale is affected by a response style related to the item wording.

Keywords: UCLA Loneliness Scale, loneliness, positively worded items, factor structure, negatively worded items

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Authors: Yangze Lan, Ruihua Xv, Feng Zhou, Yijia Shan, Longhao Zhang, Qinghui Xv

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Receiving and dispatching trains is an important part of railroad organization, and the risky evaluation of operating personnel is still reflected by scores, lacking further excavation of wrong answers and operating accidents. With natural language processing (NLP) technology, this study extracts the keywords and key phrases of 40 relevant risk events about receiving and dispatching trains and reclassifies the risk events into 8 categories, such as train approach and signal risks, dispatching command risks, and so on. Based on the historical risk data of personnel, the K-Means clustering method is used to classify the risk level of personnel. The result indicates that the high-risk operating personnel need to strengthen the training of train receiving and dispatching operations towards essential trains and abnormal situations.

Keywords: receiving and dispatching trains, natural language processing, risk evaluation, K-means clustering

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouria, Majid Motamedzadeb

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Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) are two general methods to assess the risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). This study aimed to compare ergonomic risk assessment outputs from QEC and REBA in terms of agreement in distribution of postural loading scores based on analysis of working postures. This cross-sectional study was conducted in an engine oil company in which 40 jobs were studied. A trained occupational health practitioner observed all jobs. Job information was collected to ensure the completion of ergonomic risk assessment tools, including QEC, and REBA. The result revealed that there was a significant correlation between final scores (r=0.731) and the action levels (r =0.893) of two applied methods. Comparison between the action levels and final scores of two methods showed that there was no significant difference among working departments. Most of the studied postures acquired low and moderate risk level in QEC assessment (low risk=20%, moderate risk=50% and High risk=30%) and in REBA assessment (low risk=15%, moderate risk=60% and high risk=25%).There is a significant correlation between two methods. They have a strong correlation in identifying risky jobs and determining the potential risk for incidence of WMSDs. Therefore, there is a possibility for researchers to apply interchangeably both methods, for postural risk assessment in appropriate working environments.

Keywords: observational method, QEC, REBA, musculoskeletal disorders

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Authors: Joseph Uche Azubike, Evelyn Ngozi Agbasi, M. I. Ogbonna

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The audit committee of the board of directors could no longer handle the enterprise's risks. Therefore, a risk management committee was created to control them. Thus, this study examined how enterprise risk management committee characteristics affected Nigerian exchange-listed banks' financial performance from 2013 to 2022. The study's hypotheses and three objectives were to determine how enterprise risk management committee size, composition, and gender diversity affect Nigerian banks' performance. An ex-post facto study design collected secondary data from bank annual reports. We used descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and Ordinary least square regression to analyze panel data. Enterprise risk management committee size and composition had both negative and no significant effect on bank financial performance in Nigeria, whereas enterprise risk committee gender diversity has a 10% favorable effect. The report advises that adding more women with relevant knowledge to the risk committee to boost performance and allowing women to be at the lead of such risk management could improve bank performance in Nigeria since they are noted to be thorough in their tasks.

Keywords: bank, committee, enterprise, management, performance, risk

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Authors: Mohammed E. Mansour, Tamador M. A. Elhassan, Nahid A. Ibrahim, Awatif A. Ahmed, Manal A. Abdalla

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Rift valley fever (RVF) is mosquito-borne disease. RVF is transboundary zoonotic disease. It has socioeconomic and public health importance. This paper describes qualitative risk of the RVF vaccine production. RVF is endemic in the Sudan. It has been reported in Sudan due to abundance of Ades Eqytie. Thus, there is huge effort to control it. Vaccination practices had significant role to control and manage RVF. The risk assessment explains the likelihood of a risk as likely. Thus, insecticides and repellents synergize the effort of the vaccination.

Keywords: qualitative analysis, risk assessment, rift valley fever vaccine, quality control

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Authors: Nihan Akdemir

Abstract:

This research aims to investigate the role of fashion in the context of the deconstruction of gender stereotypes. Expectation of society and culture related to the biological structure of the individual corresponds to the gender. At this point there are some unseen rules which are given to person even from his/her childhoods according to the sex and gender, are called stereotypes. With basic example, girls should wear pink, and the boys should wear blue. Or boys do not wear skirt and the woman must behave like a woman. There are also many many stereotypes like them. But the clothing style the individual uses to express his or her gender identity may not match the expectations of the community and society. In the context of big role of the clothing, these stereotypes could be deconstructed because clothes are the visible expression of gender identity of the person. And fashion is a big part of this structure because fashion is a pioneer of what people wear in other words fashion tells to people what should they wear this season. Nowadays fashion has also meant about expressing identity independent of whether you were born male or female. Many fashion brands prepare their collections in the concept of ‘gender fluid’ by deconstructions. It means that fashion is opening the roads for being more free about the gender identity. The representations of gender fluidity through fashion help bring a sense of normality to people who are trying to find the self-confidence to express who they want to be. Maybe the voice of the streets carries this point to the catwalks firstly, and then it becomes a trend. All these items have been explained with visual images and supported by the literature investigations. And the results are showed that the numbers of collections about it are increasing and fashion sector takes this issue into consideration. And this new approach reached to the streets.

Keywords: fashion, gender identity, gender stereotypes, trend

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Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

Abstract:

In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

Abstract:

Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

Abstract:

The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: Seyed Fakhroddin Hejazi, Mohammad Saleh Sadeghi, Leili Iranirad

Abstract:

Silent myocardial infarction is defined as the appearance of pathological Q waves in the electrocardiogram, without objective signs of myocardial infarction and any minimal or atypical symptoms. Although this condition has been known for a long time, but little is known about its phenomenon and the mechanisms of it remain unclear. Its coincidence with stroke is also still controversial. This case report introduces a middle-aged man with silent myocardial infarction presented with homonymous hemianopia, which except stage 1 hypertension, had no other major cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, family history of cardiac diseases and smoking. In conclusion, this case report indicated that existence of only one cardiovascular risk factor would lead to the development of MI or stroke.

Keywords: silent myocardial infarction, homonymous hemianopia, stroke, hypertension

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

Abstract:

This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial

Procedia PDF Downloads 152