Search results for: grade prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3294

Search results for: grade prediction

744 Numerical Simulation of Free Surface Water Wave for the Flow Around NACA 0012 Hydrofoil and Wigley Hull Using VOF Method

Authors: Omar Imine, Mohammed Aounallah, Mustapha Belkadi

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Steady three-dimensional and two free surface waves generated by moving bodies are presented, the flow problem to be simulated is rich in complexity and poses many modeling challenges because of the existence of breaking waves around the ship hull, and because of the interaction of the two-phase flow with the turbulent boundary layer. The results of several simulations are reported. The first study was performed for NACA0012 of hydrofoil with different meshes, this section is analyzed at h/c= 1, 0345 for 2D. In the second simulation, a mathematically defined Wigley hull form is used to investigate the application of a commercial CFD code in prediction of the total resistance and its components from tangential and normal forces on the hull wetted surface. The computed resistance and wave profiles are used to estimate the coefficient of the total resistance for Wigley hull advancing in calm water under steady conditions. The commercial CFD software FLUENT version 12 is used for the computations in the present study. The calculated grid is established using the code computer GAMBIT 2.3.26. The shear stress k-ωSST model is used for turbulence modeling and the volume of the fluid technique is employed to simulate the free-surface motion. The second order upwind scheme is used for discretizing the convection terms in the momentum transport equations, the Modified HRICscheme for VOF discretization. The results obtained compare well with the experimental data.

Keywords: free surface flows, breaking waves, boundary layer, Wigley hull, volume of fluid

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743 Coaches Attitudes, Efficacy and Proposed Behaviors towards Athletes with Hidden Disabilities: A Review of Recent Survey Research

Authors: Robbi Beyer, Tiffanye Vargas, Margaret Flores

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Within the United States, youths with hidden disabilities (specific learning disabilities, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, emotional behavioral disorders, mild intellectual disabilities and speech/language disorders) can often be part of the kindergarten through twelfth grade school population. Because individuals with hidden disabilities have no apparent physical disability, learning difficulties may be overlooked and these youths may be mistakenly labeled as unmotivated, or defiant because they don't understand and follow directions, or maintain enough attention to remember and perform. These behaviors are considered especially challenging for youth sport coaches to manage and they often find it difficult to successfully select and deliver effective accommodations for the athletes. These deficits can be remediated and compensated through the use of research-validated strategies and instructional methods. However, while these techniques are commonly included in teacher preparation, they rarely, if ever, are included in coaching preparation. Therefore, the purpose of this presentation is to summarize consecutive research studies that examined coaching education within the United States for youth athletes with hidden disabilities. Each study utilized a questionnaire format to collect data from coaches on attitudes, efficacy and solutions for addressing challenging behaviors. Results indicated that although the majority of coaches’ attitudes were positive and they perceived themselves confident in working with athletes who have hidden disabilities, there were significant differences in the understanding of appropriate teaching strategies and techniques for this population. For example, when asked to describe a videotaped situation of why an athlete is not performing correctly, coaches often found the athlete to be at fault, as opposed to considering the possibility of faulty directions, or the need for accommodations in teaching/coaching style. When considering coaches’ preparation, 83% of participants declared they were inadequately prepared to coach athletes with hidden disabilities and 92% strongly supported improved preparation for coaches. The comprehensive examination of coaches’ perceptions and efficacy in working with youth athletes with hidden disabilities has provided valuable insight and highlights the need for continued research in this area.

Keywords: health, hidden disabilties, physical activity, youth recreational sports

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742 Multi-Point Dieless Forming Product Defect Reduction Using Reliability-Based Robust Process Optimization

Authors: Misganaw Abebe Baye, Ji-Woo Park, Beom-Soo Kang

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The product quality of multi-point dieless forming (MDF) is identified to be dependent on the process parameters. Moreover, a certain variation of friction and material properties may have a substantially worse influence on the final product quality. This study proposed on how to compensate the MDF product defects by minimizing the sensitivity of noise parameter variations. This can be attained by reliability-based robust optimization (RRO) technique to obtain the optimal process setting of the controllable parameters. Initially two MDF Finite Element (FE) simulations of AA3003-H14 saddle shape showed a substantial amount of dimpling, wrinkling, and shape error. FE analyses are consequently applied on ABAQUS commercial software to obtain the correlation between the control process setting and noise variation with regard to the product defects. The best prediction models are chosen from the family of metamodels to swap the computational expensive FE simulation. Genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to determine the optimal process settings of the control parameters. Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) is executed to determine how the noise parameter variation affects the final product quality. Finally, the RRO FE simulation and the experimental result show that the amendment of the control parameters in the final forming process leads to a considerably better-quality product.

Keywords: dimpling, multi-point dieless forming, reliability-based robust optimization, shape error, variation, wrinkling

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741 In-silico Antimicrobial Activity of Bioactive Compounds of Ricinus communis against DNA Gyrase of Staphylococcus aureus as Molecular Target

Authors: S. Rajeswari

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Medicinal Plant extracts and their bioactive compounds have been used for antimicrobial activities and have significant remedial properties. In the recent years, a wide range of investigations have been carried out throughout the world to confirm antimicrobial properties of different medicinally important plants. A number of plants showed efficient antimicrobial activities, which were comparable to that of synthetic standard drugs or antimicrobial agents. The large family Euphorbiaceae contains nearly about 300 genera and 7,500 speciesand one among is Ricinus communis or castor plant which has high traditional and medicinal value for disease free healthy life. Traditionally the plant is used as laxative, purgative, fertilizer and fungicide etc. whereas the plant possess beneficial effects such as anti-oxidant, antihistamine, antinociceptive, antiasthmatic, antiulcer, immunomodulatory anti diabetic, hepatoprotective, anti inflammatory, antimicrobial, and many other medicinal properties. This activity of the plant possess due to the important phytochemical constituents like flavonoids, saponins, glycosides, alkaloids and steroids. The presents study includes the phytochemical properties of Ricinus communis and to prediction of the anti-microbial activity of Ricinus communis using DNA gyrase of Staphylococcus aureus as molecular target. Docking results of varies chemicals compounds of Ricinus communis against DNA gyrase of Staphylococcus aureus by maestro 9.8 of Schrodinger show that the phytochemicals are effective against the target protein DNA gyrase. our studies suggest that the phytochemical from Ricinus communis such has INDICAN (G.Score 4.98) and SUPLOPIN-2(G.Score 5.74) can be used as lead molecule against Staphylococcus infections.

Keywords: euphorbiaceae, antimicrobial activity, Ricinus communis, Staphylococcus aureus

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740 Millennials' Viewpoints about Sustainable Hotels' Practices in Egypt: Promoting Responsible Consumerism

Authors: Jailan Mohamed El Demerdash

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Millennials are a distinctive and dominant consumer group whose behavior, preferences and purchase decisions are broadly explored but not fully understood yet. Making up the largest market segment in the world, and in Egypt, they have the power to reinvent the hospitality industry and contribute to forming prospective demand for green hotels by showing willingness to adopting their environmental-friendly practices. The current study aims to enhance better understanding of Millennials' perception about sustainable initiatives and to increase the prediction power of their intentions regarding green hotel practices in Egypt. In doing so, the study is exploring the relation among different factors; Millennials' environmental awareness, their acceptance of green practices and their willingness to pay more for them. Millennials' profile, their preferences and environmental decision-making process are brought under light to stimulate actions of hospitality decision-makers and hoteliers. Bearing in mind that responsible consumerism is depending on understanding the different influences on consumption. The study questionnaire was composed of four sections and it was distributed to random Egyptian travelers' blogs and Facebook groups, with approximately 8000 members. Analysis of variance test (ANOVA) was used to examine the study variables. The findings indicated that Millennials' environmental awareness will not be a significant factor in their acceptance of hotel green practices, as well as, their willingness to pay more for them. However, Millennials' acceptance of the level of hotel green practices will have an impact on their willingness to pay more. Millennials were found to have a noticeable level of environmental awareness but lack commitment to tolerating hotel green practices and their associated high prices.

Keywords: millennials, environment, awareness, paying more

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739 Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Analysis of Isotopes of Plutonium in PM₂.₅

Authors: C. G. Mendez-Garcia, E. T. Romero-Guzman, H. Hernandez-Mendoza, C. Solis, E. Chavez-Lomeli, E. Chamizo, R. Garcia-Tenorio

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Plutonium is present in different concentrations in the environment and biological samples related to nuclear weapons testing, nuclear waste recycling and accidental discharges of nuclear plants. This radioisotope is considered the most radiotoxic substance, particularly when it enters the human body through inhalation of powders insoluble or aerosols. This is the main reason of the determination of the concentration of this radioisotope in the atmosphere. Besides that, the isotopic ratio of ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu provides information about the origin of the source. PM₂.₅ sampling was carried out in the Metropolitan Zone of the Valley of Mexico (MZVM) from February 18th to March 17th in 2015 on quartz filter. There have been significant developments recently due to the establishment of new methods for sample preparation and accurate measurement to detect ultra trace levels as the plutonium is found in the environment. The accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is a technique that allows measuring levels of detection around of femtograms (10-15 g). The AMS determinations include the chemical isolation of Pu. The Pu separation involved an acidic digestion and a radiochemical purification using an anion exchange resin. Finally, the source is prepared, when Pu is pressed in the corresponding cathodes. According to the author's knowledge on these aerosols showed variations on the ²³⁵U/²³⁸U ratio of the natural value, suggesting that could be an anthropogenic source altering it. The determination of the concentration of the isotopes of Pu can be a useful tool in order the clarify this presence in the atmosphere. The first results showed a mean value of activity concentration of ²³⁹Pu of 280 nBq m⁻³ thus the ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu was 0.025 corresponding to the weapon production source; these results corroborate that there is an anthropogenic influence that is increasing the concentration of radioactive material in PM₂.₅. According to the author's knowledge in Total Suspended Particles (TSP) have been reported activity concentrations of ²³⁹⁺²⁴⁰Pu around few tens of nBq m⁻³ and 0.17 of ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratios. The preliminary results in MZVM show high activity concentrations of isotopes of Pu (40 and 700 nBq m⁻³) and low ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratio than reported. These results are in the order of the activity concentrations of Pu in weapons-grade of high purity.

Keywords: aerosols, fallout, mass spectrometry, radiochemistry, tracer, ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratio

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738 Non-Linear Assessment of Chromatographic Lipophilicity of Selected Steroid Derivatives

Authors: Milica Karadžić, Lidija Jevrić, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Kovačević, Anamarija Mandić, Aleksandar Oklješa, Andrea Nikolić, Marija Sakač, Katarina Penov Gaši

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Using chemometric approach, the relationships between the chromatographic lipophilicity and in silico molecular descriptors for twenty-nine selected steroid derivatives were studied. The chromatographic lipophilicity was predicted using artificial neural networks (ANNs) method. The most important in silico molecular descriptors were selected applying stepwise selection (SS) paired with partial least squares (PLS) method. Molecular descriptors with satisfactory variable importance in projection (VIP) values were selected for ANN modeling. The usefulness of generated models was confirmed by detailed statistical validation. High agreement between experimental and predicted values indicated that obtained models have good quality and high predictive ability. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) confirmed the importance of each molecular descriptor used as an input variable. High-quality networks indicate a strong non-linear relationship between chromatographic lipophilicity and used in silico molecular descriptors. Applying selected molecular descriptors and generated ANNs the good prediction of chromatographic lipophilicity of the studied steroid derivatives can be obtained. This article is based upon work from COST Actions (CM1306 and CA15222), supported by COST (European Cooperation and Science and Technology).

Keywords: artificial neural networks, chemometrics, global sensitivity analysis, liquid chromatography, steroids

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737 Emergency Physician Performance for Hydronephrosis Diagnosis and Grading Compared with Radiologist Assessment in Renal Colic: The EPHyDRA Study

Authors: Sameer A. Pathan, Biswadev Mitra, Salman Mirza, Umais Momin, Zahoor Ahmed, Lubna G. Andraous, Dharmesh Shukla, Mohammed Y. Shariff, Magid M. Makki, Tinsy T. George, Saad S. Khan, Stephen H. Thomas, Peter A. Cameron

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Study objective: Emergency physician’s (EP) ability to identify hydronephrosis on point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) has been assessed in the past using CT scan as the reference standard. We aimed to assess EP interpretation of POCUS to identify and grade the hydronephrosis in a direct comparison with the consensus-interpretation of POCUS by radiologists, and also to compare the EP and radiologist performance using CT scan as the criterion standard. Methods: Using data from a POCUS databank, a prospective interpretation study was conducted at an urban academic emergency department. All POCUS exams were performed on patients presenting with renal colic to the ED. Institutional approval was obtained for conducting this study. All the analyses were performed using Stata MP 14.0 (Stata Corp, College Station, Texas). Results: A total of 651 patients were included, with paired sets of renal POCUS video clips and the CT scan performed at the same ED visit. Hydronephrosis was reported in 69.6% of POCUS exams by radiologists and 72.7% of CT scans (p=0.22). The κ for consensus interpretation of POCUS between the radiologists to detect hydronephrosis was 0.77 (0.72 to 0.82) and weighted κ for grading the hydronephrosis was 0.82 (0.72 to 0.90), interpreted as good to very good. Using CT scan findings as the criterion standard, Eps had an overall sensitivity of 81.1% (95% CI: 79.6% to 82.5%), specificity of 59.4% (95% CI: 56.4% to 62.5%), PPV of 84.3% (95% CI: 82.9% to 85.7%), and NPV of 53.8% (95% CI: 50.8% to 56.7%); compared to radiologist sensitivity of 85.0% (95% CI: 82.5% to 87.2%), specificity of 79.7% (95% CI: 75.1% to 83.7%), PPV of 91.8% (95% CI: 89.8% to 93.5%), and NPV of 66.5% (95% CI: 61.8% to 71.0%). Testing for a report of moderate or high degree of hydronephrosis, specificity of EP was 94.6% (95% CI: 93.7% to 95.4%) and to 99.2% (95% CI: 98.9% to 99.5%) for identifying severe hydronephrosis alone. Conclusion: EP POCUS interpretations were comparable to the radiologists for identifying moderate to severe hydronephrosis using CT scan results as the criterion standard. Among patients with moderate or high pre-test probability of ureteric calculi, as calculated by the STONE-score, the presence of moderate to severe (+LR 6.3 and –LR 0.69) or severe hydronephrosis (+LR 54.4 and –LR 0.57) was highly diagnostic of the stone disease. Low dose CT is indicated in such patients for evaluation of stone size and location.

Keywords: renal colic, point-of-care, ultrasound, bedside, emergency physician

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736 Large Eddy Simulation with Energy-Conserving Schemes: Understanding Wind Farm Aerodynamics

Authors: Dhruv Mehta, Alexander van Zuijlen, Hester Bijl

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Large Eddy Simulation (LES) numerically resolves the large energy-containing eddies of a turbulent flow, while modelling the small dissipative eddies. On a wind farm, these large scales carry the energy wind turbines extracts and are also responsible for transporting the turbines’ wakes, which may interact with downstream turbines and certainly with the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In this situation, it is important to conserve the energy that these wake’s carry and which could be altered artificially through numerical dissipation brought about by the schemes used for the spatial discretisation and temporal integration. Numerical dissipation has been reported to cause the premature recovery of turbine wakes, leading to an over prediction in the power produced by wind farms.An energy-conserving scheme is free from numerical dissipation and ensures that the energy of the wakes is increased or decreased only by the action of molecular viscosity or the action of wind turbines (body forces). The aim is to create an LES package with energy-conserving schemes to simulate wind turbine wakes correctly to gain insight into power-production, wake meandering etc. Such knowledge will be useful in designing more efficient wind farms with minimal wake interaction, which if unchecked could lead to major losses in energy production per unit area of the wind farm. For their research, the authors intend to use the Energy-Conserving Navier-Stokes code developed by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands.

Keywords: energy-conserving schemes, modelling turbulence, Large Eddy Simulation, atmospheric boundary layer

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735 Long-Term Sitting Posture Identifier Connected with Cloud Service

Authors: Manikandan S. P., Sharmila N.

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Pain in the neck, intermediate and anterior, and even low back may occur in one or more locations. Numerous factors can lead to back discomfort, which can manifest into sensations in the other parts of your body. Up to 80% of people will have low back problems at a certain stage of their lives, making spine-related pain a highly prevalent ailment. Roughly twice as commonly as neck pain, low back discomfort also happens about as often as knee pain. According to current studies, using digital devices for extended periods of time and poor sitting posture are the main causes of neck and low back pain. There are numerous monitoring techniques provided to enhance the sitting posture for the aforementioned problems. A sophisticated technique to monitor the extended sitting position is suggested in this research based on this problem. The system is made up of an inertial measurement unit, a T-shirt, an Arduino board, a buzzer, and a mobile app with cloud services. Based on the anatomical position of the spinal cord, the inertial measurement unit was positioned on the inner back side of the T-shirt. The IMU (inertial measurement unit) sensor will evaluate the hip position, imbalanced shoulder, and bending angle. Based on the output provided by the IMU, the data will be analyzed by Arduino, supplied through the cloud, and shared with a mobile app for continuous monitoring. The buzzer will sound if the measured data is mismatched with the human body's natural position. The implementation and data prediction with design to identify balanced and unbalanced posture using a posture monitoring t-shirt will be further discussed in this research article.

Keywords: IMU, posture, IOT, textile

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734 The Research of the Relationship between Triathlon Competition Results with Physical Fitness Performance

Authors: Chen Chan Wei

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of swim 1500m, 10000m run, VO2 max, and body fat on Olympic distance triathlon competition performance. The subjects were thirteen college triathletes with endurance training, with an average age, height and weight of 20.61±1.04 years (mean ± SD), 171.76±8.54 cm and 65.32±8.14 kg respectively. All subjects were required to take the tests of swim 1500m, run 10000m, VO2 max, body fat, and participate in the Olympic distance triathlon competition. First, the swim 1500m test was taken in the standardized 50m pool, with a depth of 2m, and the 10000m run test on the standardized 400m track. After three days, VO2 max was tested with the MetaMax 3B and body fat was measured with the DEXA machine. After two weeks, all 13 subjects joined the Olympic distance triathlon competition at the 2016 New Taipei City Asian Cup. The relationships between swim 1500m, 10000m run, VO2 max, body fat test, and Olympic distance triathlon competition performance were evaluated using Pearson's product-moment correlation. The results show that 10000m run and body fat had a significant positive correlation with Olympic distance triathlon performance (r=.830, .768), but VO2 max has a significant negative correlation with Olympic distance triathlon performance (r=-.735). In conclusion, for improved non-draft Olympic distance triathlon performance, triathletes should focus on running than swimming training and can be measure VO2 max to prediction triathlon performance. Also, managing body fat can improve Olympic distance triathlon performance. In addition, swimming performance was not significantly correlated to Olympic distance triathlon performance, possibly because the 2016 New Taipei City Asian Cup age group was not a drafting competition. The swimming race is the shortest component of Olympic distance triathlons. Therefore, in a non-draft competition, swimming ability is not significantly correlated with overall performance.

Keywords: triathletes, olympic, non-drafting, correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
733 Construction and Demolition Waste Management in Indian Cities

Authors: Vaibhav Rathi, Soumen Maity, Achu R. Sekhar, Abhijit Banerjee

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Construction sector in India is extremely resource and carbon intensive. It contributes to significantly to national greenhouse emissions. At the resource end the industry consumes significant portions of the output from mining. Resources such as sand and soil are most exploited and their rampant extraction is becoming constant source of impact on environment and society. Cement is another resource that is used in abundance in building and construction and has a direct impact on limestone resources. Though India is rich in cement grade limestone resource, efforts have to be made for sustainable consumption of this resource to ensure future availability. Use of these resources in high volumes in India is a result of rapid urbanization. More cities have grown to a population of million plus in the last decade and million plus cities are growing further. To cater to needs of growing urban population of construction activities are inevitable in the coming future thereby increasing material consumption. Increased construction will also lead to substantial increase in end of life waste generation from Construction and Demolition (C&D). Therefore proper management of C&D waste has the potential to reduce environmental pollution as well as contribute to the resource efficiency in the construction sector. The present study deals with estimation, characterisation and documenting current management practices of C&D waste in 10 Indian cities of different geographies and classes. Based on primary data the study draws conclusions on the potential of C&D waste to be used as an alternative to primary raw materials. The estimation results show that India generates 716 million tons of C&D waste annually, placing the country as second largest C&D waste generator in the world after China. The study also aimed at utilization of C&D waste in to building materials. The waste samples collected from various cities have been used to replace 100% stone aggregates in paver blocks without any decrease in strength. However, management practices of C&D waste in cities still remains poor instead of notification of rules and regulations notified for C&D waste management. Only a few cities have managed to install processing plant and set up management systems for C&D waste. Therefore there is immense opportunity for management and reuse of C&D waste in Indian cities.

Keywords: building materials, construction and demolition waste, cities, environmental pollution, resource efficiency

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732 Polyphenol Stability and Antioxidant Properties of Freeze-Dried Sour Cherry Encapsulates

Authors: Gordana Ćetković, Vesna Tumbas Šaponjac, Jasna Čanadanović-Brunet, Sonja Đilas, Slađana Stajčić, Jelena Vulić, Mirjana Jakišić

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Despite the recommended amount of daily intake of fruits, the consumption in modern age remains very low. Therefore there is a need for delivering valuable phytochemicals into the human body through different foods by developing functional food products fortified with natural bioactive compounds from plant sources. Recently, a growing interest rises in exploiting the fruit and vegetable by-products as sources of phytochemicals such as polyphenols, carotenoids, vitamins etc. Cherry contain high amounts of polyphenols, which are known to display a wide range of biological activities like antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial or anti-carcinogenic activities, improvement of vision, induction of apoptosis and neuroprotective effects. Also, cherry pomace, a by-product in juice processing, can also be promising source of phenolic compounds. However, the application of polyphenols as food additives is limited because after extraction these compounds are susceptible to degradation. Microencapsulation is one of the alternative approaches to protect bioactive compounds from degradation during processing and storage. Freeze-drying is one of the most used microencapsulation methods for the protection of thermosensitive and unstable molecules. In this study sour cherry pomace was extracted with food-grade solvent (50% ethanol) to be suitable for application in products for human use. Extracted polyphenols have been concentrated and stabilized on whey (WP) and soy (SP) proteins. Encapsulation efficiency in SP was higher (94.90%), however not significantly (p<0.05) from the one in WP (90.10%). Storage properties of WP and SP encapsulate in terms of total polyphenols, anthocyanins and antioxidant activity was tested for 6 weeks. It was found that the retention of polyphenols after 6 weeks in WP and SP (67.33 and 69.30%, respectively) was similar. The content of anthocyanins has increased in WP (for 47.97%), while their content in SP has very slightly decreased (for 1.45%) after 6-week storage period. In accordance with anthocyanins the decrease in antioxidant activity in WP (87.78%) was higher than in SP (43.02%). According to the results obtained in this study, the technique reported herewith can be used for obtaining quality encapsulates for their further use as functional food additives, and, on the other hand, for fruit waste valorization.

Keywords: cherry pomace, microencapsulation, polyphenols, storage

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731 Air Dispersion Model for Prediction Fugitive Landfill Gaseous Emission Impact in Ambient Atmosphere

Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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This paper will explore formation of HCl aerosol at atmospheric boundary layers and encourages the uptake of environmental modeling systems (EMSs) as a practice evaluation of gaseous emissions (“framework measures”) from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The conceptual model predicts greenhouse gas emissions to ecological points beyond landfill site operations. It focuses on incorporation traditional knowledge into baseline information for both measurement data and the mathematical results, regarding parameters influence model variable inputs. The paper has simplified parameters of aerosol processes based on the more complex aerosol process computations. The simple model can be implemented to both Gaussian and Eulerian rural dispersion models. Aerosol processes considered in this study were (i) the coagulation of particles, (ii) the condensation and evaporation of organic vapors, and (iii) dry deposition. The chemical transformation of gas-phase compounds is taken into account photochemical formulation with exposure effects according to HCl concentrations as starting point of risk assessment. The discussion set out distinctly aspect of sustainability in reflection inputs, outputs, and modes of impact on the environment. Thereby, models incorporate abiotic and biotic species to broaden the scope of integration for both quantification impact and assessment risks. The later environmental obligations suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved for mitigation measures of landfill gas (LFG) ultimately.

Keywords: air pollution, landfill emission, environmental management, monitoring/methods and impact assessment

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730 A Gene Selection Algorithm for Microarray Cancer Classification Using an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: Arfan Ali Nagra, Tariq Shahzad, Meshal Alharbi, Khalid Masood Khan, Muhammad Mugees Asif, Taher M. Ghazal, Khmaies Ouahada

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Gene selection is an essential step for the classification of microarray cancer data. Gene expression cancer data (DNA microarray) facilitates computing the robust and concurrent expression of various genes. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) requires simple operators and less number of parameters for tuning the model in gene selection. The selection of a prognostic gene with small redundancy is a great challenge for the researcher as there are a few complications in PSO based selection method. In this research, a new variant of PSO (Self-inertia weight adaptive PSO) has been proposed. In the proposed algorithm, SIW-APSO-ELM is explored to achieve gene selection prediction accuracies. This new algorithm balances the exploration capabilities of the improved inertia weight adaptive particle swarm optimization and the exploitation. The self-inertia weight adaptive particle swarm optimization (SIW-APSO) is used to search the solution. The SIW-APSO is updated with an evolutionary process in such a way that each particle iteratively improves its velocities and positions. The extreme learning machine (ELM) has been designed for the selection procedure. The proposed method has been to identify a number of genes in the cancer dataset. The classification algorithm contains ELM, K- centroid nearest neighbor (KCNN), and support vector machine (SVM) to attain high forecast accuracy as compared to the start-of-the-art methods on microarray cancer datasets that show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: microarray cancer, improved PSO, ELM, SVM, evolutionary algorithms

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729 Taking Risks to Get Pleasure: Reproductive Health Behaviour of Early Adolescents in Pantura Line, Indonesia

Authors: Juariah Salam Suryadi

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North coast (Pantura) line is known as a high-risk area related to reproductive health. This is because along the line, there are many food stalls and entertainment industries that at night the function changed to be sexual transaction areas. This business line also facilitate circulation and transaction of drug and substance abuse. The environment conditions can influence adolescents who live in this area. It is because of adolescence characteristics that has high curiosity and looking for their identities. Therefore, purposes of this study were to explore reproductive health behaviour of early adolescents who lived in Pantura line and to suggest intervention based on the adolescents reproductive health conditions. This study was conducted in November 2016 among the seventh-grade students of Pusakajaya Junior High School 1 and 2, Subang District. Number of respondents were 269 students (Male=135, Female=134). The students were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. Some teachers also interviewed to complement the data. The quantitative data was analyzed with univariate analysis, while content analysis was used for the qualitative data. Findings of this study showed that 85,2% of male students were smoker. Most of them started smoking at elementary school. Male students who often drunk alcohol were about 25,2% and all of them initiated to drink at elementary school. There were about 21,5% of male students ever used drug and substance abuse. There were 54,6% of the students that confessed having a lover. Most of them were female students. Sexual behaviour that ever done with their lovers were: holding hands (37,4%), kissing (4%) and embracing (6,8%). Although all of the students claimed to have never had sexual intercourse, but 5,9% of them said that they had friends who have had sexual intercourse. Most of the students also had friends with negative characteristics. Their friends were smoker (82,2%), drinker (53,2%) and drug abuse (42%). Most of the students recognized that they took the risks behaviour to get pleasure with their peers. Information from the teachers indicated that most problem of male students were smoking and drug and substance abuse; while sexuality including unwanted pregnancies were reproductive problems of many female students. Therefore, It is recommended to enhance understanding of the adolescents about risks of unhealthy behaviour through continuing reproductive health education, both in school and out of school. Policy support to create positive social environment and adolescents friendly is also suggested.

Keywords: reproductive health, behaviour, early adolescents, pantura line

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728 Deep Foundations: Analysis of the Lateral Response of Closed Ended Steel Tubular Piles Embedded in Sandy Soil Using P-Y Curves

Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

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Understanding the behaviour of the piles under the action of the independent lateral loads and the precise prediction of the capacity of piles subjected to different lateral loads are vital topics in foundation design and analysis. Moreover, the laterally loaded behaviour of deep foundations penetrated in cohesive and non-cohesive soils is basically analysed by the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation), in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and contacted soil is simulated by nonlinear p–y curves. The presence of many approaches to interpret the behaviour of soil-pile interaction has resulted in numerous outputs and indicates that no general approach has yet been adopted. The current study presents the result of numerical modelling of the behaviour of steel tubular piles (25.4mm) outside diameter with various embedment depth-to-diameter ratios (L/d) embedded in a sand calibrated chamber of known relative density. The study revealed that the shear strength parameters of the sand specimens and the (L/d) ratios are the most significant factor influencing the response of the pile and its capacity while taking into consideration the complex interaction between the pile and soil. Good agreement has been achieved when comparing the application of this modelling approach with experimental physical modelling carried out by another researcher.

Keywords: deep foundations, slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), non-cohesive soil

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727 A Study of High Viscosity Oil-Gas Slug Flow Using Gamma Densitometer

Authors: Y. Baba, A. Archibong-Eso, H. Yeung

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Experimental study of high viscosity oil-gas flows in horizontal pipelines published in literature has indicated that hydrodynamic slug flow is the dominant flow pattern observed. Investigations have shown that hydrodynamic slugging brings about high instabilities in pressure that can damage production facilities thereby making it inherent to study high viscous slug flow regime so as to improve the understanding of its flow dynamics. Most slug flow models used in the petroleum industry for the design of pipelines together with their closure relationships were formulated based on observations of low viscosity liquid-gas flows. New experimental investigations and data are therefore required to validate these models. In cases where these models underperform, improving upon or building new predictive models and correlations will also depend on the new experimental dataset and further understanding of the flow dynamics in high viscous oil-gas flows. In this study conducted at the Flow laboratory, Oil and Gas Engineering Centre of Cranfield University, slug flow variables such as pressure gradient, mean liquid holdup, frequency and slug length for oil viscosity ranging from 1..0 – 5.5 Pa.s are experimentally investigated and analysed. The study was carried out in a 0.076m ID pipe, two fast sampling gamma densitometer and pressure transducers (differential and point) were used to obtain experimental measurements. Comparison of the measured slug flow parameters to the existing slug flow prediction models available in the literature showed disagreement with high viscosity experimental data thus highlighting the importance of building new predictive models and correlations.

Keywords: gamma densitometer, mean liquid holdup, pressure gradient, slug frequency and slug length

Procedia PDF Downloads 322
726 Understanding the Processwise Entropy Framework in a Heat-powered Cooling Cycle

Authors: P. R. Chauhan, S. K. Tyagi

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Adsorption refrigeration technology offers a sustainable and energy-efficient cooling alternative over traditional refrigeration technologies for meeting the fast-growing cooling demands. With its ability to utilize natural refrigerants, low-grade heat sources, and modular configurations, it has the potential to revolutionize the cooling industry. Despite these benefits, the commercial viability of this technology is hampered by several fundamental limiting constraints, including its large size, low uptake capacity, and poor performance as a result of deficient heat and mass transfer characteristics. The primary cause of adequate heat and mass transfer characteristics and magnitude of exergy loss in various real processes of adsorption cooling system can be assessed by the entropy generation rate analysis, i. e. Second law of Thermodynamics. Therefore, this article presents the second law of thermodynamic-based investigation in terms of entropy generation rate (EGR) to identify the energy losses in various processes of the HPCC-based adsorption system using MATLAB R2021b software. The adsorption technology-based cooling system consists of two beds made up of silica gel and arranged in a single stage, while the water is employed as a refrigerant, coolant, and hot fluid. The variation in process-wise EGR is examined corresponding to cycle time, and a comparative analysis is also presented. Moreover, the EGR is also evaluated in the external units, such as the heat source and heat sink unit used for regeneration and heat dump, respectively. The research findings revealed that the combination of adsorber and desorber, which operates across heat reservoirs with a higher temperature gradient, shares more than half of the total amount of EGR. Moreover, the EGR caused by the heat transfer process is determined to be the highest, followed by a heat sink, heat source, and mass transfer, respectively. in case of heat transfer process, the operation of the valve is determined to be responsible for more than half (54.9%) of the overall EGR during the heat transfer. However, the combined contribution of the external units, such as the source (18.03%) and sink (21.55%), to the total EGR, is 35.59%. The analysis and findings of the present research are expected to pinpoint the source of the energy waste in HPCC based adsorption cooling systems.

Keywords: adsorption cooling cycle, heat transfer, mass transfer, entropy generation, silica gel-water

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
725 Membrane-Localized Mutations as Predictors of Checkpoint Blockade Efficacy in Cancer

Authors: Zoe Goldberger, Priscilla S. Briquez, Jeffrey A. Hubbell

Abstract:

Tumor cells have mutations resulting from genetic instability that the immune system can actively recognize. Immune checkpoint immunotherapy (ICI) is commonly used in the clinic to re-activate immune reactions against mutated proteins, called neoantigens, resulting in tumor remission in cancer patients. However, only around 20% of patients show durable response to ICI. While tumor mutational burden (TMB) has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a criterion for ICI therapy, the relevance of the subcellular localizations of the mutated proteins within the tumor cell has not been investigated. Here, we hypothesized that localization of mutations impacts the effect of immune responsiveness to ICI. We analyzed publicly available tumor mutation sequencing data of ICI treated patients from 3 independent datasets. We extracted the subcellular localization from the UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot database and quantified the proportion of membrane, cytoplasmic, nuclear, or secreted mutations per patient. We analyzed this information in relation to response to ICI treatment and overall survival of patients showing with 1722 ICI-treated patients that high mutational burden localized at the membrane (mTMB), correlate with ICI responsiveness, and improved overall survival in multiple cancer types. We anticipate that our results will ameliorate predictability of cancer patient response to ICI with potential implications in clinical guidelines to tailor ICI treatment. This would not only increase patient survival for those receiving ICI, but also patients’ quality of life by reducing the number of patients enduring non-effective ICI treatments.

Keywords: cancer, immunotherapy, membrane neoantigens, efficacy prediction, biomarkers

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
724 Simulation of Optimal Runoff Hydrograph Using Ensemble of Radar Rainfall and Blending of Runoffs Model

Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

Procedia PDF Downloads 268
723 Classification for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome Based on Random Forest

Authors: Cheng-Yu Tsai, Wen-Te Liu, Shin-Mei Hsu, Yin-Tzu Lin, Chi Wu

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Background: Obstructive Sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a common respiratory disorder during sleep. In addition, Body parameters were identified high predictive importance for OSAS severity. However, the effects of body parameters on OSAS severity remain unclear. Objective: In this study, the objective is to establish a prediction model for OSAS by using body parameters and investigate the effects of body parameters in OSAS. Methodologies: Severity was quantified as the polysomnography and the mean hourly number of greater than 3% dips in oxygen saturation during examination in a hospital in New Taipei City (Taiwan). Four levels of OSAS severity were classified by the apnea and hypopnea index (AHI) with American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) guideline. Body parameters, including neck circumference, waist size, and body mass index (BMI) were obtained from questionnaire. Next, dividing the collecting subjects into two groups: training and testing groups. The training group was used to establish the random forest (RF) to predicting, and test group was used to evaluated the accuracy of classification. Results: There were 3330 subjects recruited in this study, whom had been done polysomnography for evaluating severity for OSAS. A RF of 1000 trees achieved correctly classified 79.94 % of test cases. When further evaluated on the test cohort, RF showed the waist and BMI as the high import factors in OSAS. Conclusion It is possible to provide patient with prescreening by body parameters which can pre-evaluate the health risks.

Keywords: apnea and hypopnea index, Body parameters, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, Random Forest

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722 A Sense of Belonging: Music Learning and School Connectedness

Authors: Johanna Gamboa-Kroesen

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School connectedness, or the sense of belonging at school, is a critical factor in adolescent health, academic achievement, and socioemotional well-being. In educational research, the construct of the psychological sense of school membership is often referred to as school engagement, school bonding, or school attachment. While current research recognizes school connectedness as integral to a child’s mental health and academic success, many schools have yet to develop adequate interventions to promote a child’s overall sense of belonging at school. However, prior researches in music education indicates that, among other benefits, music classrooms may provide an environment where students feel they belong. While studies indicates that music learning environments, specifically performing ensemble learning environments, instill a sense of school connectedness and, more broadly, contribute to a student’s socio-emotional development, there has been inadequate research on how the actions of music teachers contribute to this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between school connectedness and music learning environments with middle school music students enrolled in a school-based music ensemble. In addition, the study aimed to provide a descriptive analysis of the instructional practices that music teachers use to promote an inclusive environment in their classrooms and an overall sense of belonging in their students. Using 191 student surveys of school membership, student reflective writings, 5 teacher interviews, and 10 classroom observations, this study examined the relationship between 7th and 8th-grade student-reported levels of connectedness within their school-based music ensemble and teacher instructional practice. The study found that students reported high levels of positive school membership within their music classes. Students who participate in school-based orchestra ensembles reported a positive change in emotional state during music instruction. In addition, evidence in this study found that music teachers use instructional practices to build connectedness through de-emphasizing competition and strengthening a student’s sense of relational value within their music learning experience. The findings offer implications for future music teacher instruction to create environments of inclusion, strengthen student-teacher relationships, and promote strategies that enhance student connection to school.

Keywords: music education, belonging, instructional practice, school connectedness

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
721 Flow Sheet Development and Simulation of a Bio-refinery Annexed to Typical South African Sugar Mill

Authors: M. Ali Mandegari, S. Farzad, J. F. Görgens

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Sugar is one of the main agricultural industries in South Africa and approximately livelihoods of one million South Africans are indirectly dependent on sugar industry which is economically struggling with some problems and should re-invent in order to ensure a long-term sustainability. Second generation bio-refinery is defined as a process to use waste fibrous for the production of bio-fuel, chemicals animal food, and electricity. Bio-ethanol is by far the most widely used bio-fuel for transportation worldwide and many challenges in front of bio-ethanol production were solved. Bio-refinery annexed to the existing sugar mill for production of bio-ethanol and electricity is proposed to sugar industry and is addressed in this study. Since flow-sheet development is the key element of the bio-ethanol process, in this work, a bio-refinery (bio-ethanol and electricity production) annexed to a typical South African sugar mill considering 65ton/h dry sugarcane bagasse and tops/trash as feedstock was simulated. Aspen PlusTM V8.6 was applied as simulator and realistic simulation development approach was followed to reflect the practical behavior of the plant. Latest results of other researches considering pretreatment, hydrolysis, fermentation, enzyme production, bio-ethanol production and other supplementary units such as evaporation, water treatment, boiler, and steam/electricity generation units were adopted to establish a comprehensive bio-refinery simulation. Steam explosion with SO2 was selected for pretreatment due to minimum inhibitor production and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) configuration was adopted for enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose and hydrolyze. Bio-ethanol purification was simulated by two distillation columns with side stream and fuel grade bio-ethanol (99.5%) was achieved using molecular sieve in order to minimize the capital and operating costs. Also boiler and steam/power generation were completed using industrial design data. Results indicates 256.6 kg bio ethanol per ton of feedstock and 31 MW surplus power were attained from bio-refinery while the process consumes 3.5, 3.38, and 0.164 (GJ/ton per ton of feedstock) hot utility, cold utility and electricity respectively. Developed simulation is a threshold of variety analyses and developments for further studies.

Keywords: bio-refinery, bagasse, tops, trash, bio-ethanol, electricity

Procedia PDF Downloads 521
720 Educational Attainment of Owner-Managers and Performance of Micro- and Small Informal Businesses in Nigeria

Authors: Isaiah Oluranti Olurinola, Michael Kayode Bolarinwa, Ebenezer Bowale, Ifeoluwa Ogunrinola

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Abstract - While much literature exists on microfinancing and its impact on the development of micro, small and medium-scale enterprises (MSME), yet little is known in respect of the impact of different types of education of owner-managers on the performances as well as innovative possibilities of such enterprises. This paper aims at contributing to the understanding of the impact of different types of education (academic, technical, apprenticeship, etc) that influence the performance of micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME). This study utilises a recent and larger data-set collected in six states and FCT Abuja, Nigeria in the year 2014. Furthermore, the study carries out a comparative analysis of business performance among the different geo-political zones in Nigeria, given the educational attainment of the owner-managers. The data set were enterprise-based and were collected by the Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research (NISER) in the year 2014. Six hundred and eighty eight enterprises were covered in the survey. The method of data analysis for this study is the use of basic descriptive statistics in addition to the Logistic Regression model used in the prediction of the log of odds of business performance in relation to any of the identified educational attainment of the owner-managers in the sampled enterprises. An OLS econometric technique is also used to determine the effects of owner-managers' different educational types on the performance of the sampled MSME. Policy measures that will further enhance the contributions of education to MSME performance will be put forward.

Keywords: Business Performance, Education, Microfinancing, Micro, Small and Medium Scale Enterprises

Procedia PDF Downloads 503
719 Bi-Liquid Free Surface Flow Simulation of Liquid Atomization for Bi-Propellant Thrusters

Authors: Junya Kouwa, Shinsuke Matsuno, Chihiro Inoue, Takehiro Himeno, Toshinori Watanabe

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Bi-propellant thrusters use impinging jet atomization to atomize liquid fuel and oxidizer. Atomized propellants are mixed and combusted due to auto-ignitions. Therefore, it is important for a prediction of thruster’s performance to simulate the primary atomization phenomenon; especially, the local mixture ratio can be used as indicator of thrust performance, so it is useful to evaluate it from numerical simulations. In this research, we propose a numerical method for considering bi-liquid and the mixture and install it to CIP-LSM which is a two-phase flow simulation solver with level-set and MARS method as an interfacial tracking method and can predict local mixture ratio distribution downstream from an impingement point. A new parameter, beta, which is defined as the volume fraction of one liquid in the mixed liquid within a cell is introduced and the solver calculates the advection of beta, inflow and outflow flux of beta to a cell. By validating this solver, we conducted a simple experiment and the same simulation by using the solver. From the result, the solver can predict the penetrating length of a liquid jet correctly and it is confirmed that the solver can simulate the mixing of liquids. Then we apply this solver to the numerical simulation of impinging jet atomization. From the result, the inclination angle of fan after the impingement in the bi-liquid condition reasonably agrees with the theoretical value. Also, it is seen that the mixture of liquids can be simulated in this result. Furthermore, simulation results clarify that the injecting condition affects the atomization process and local mixture ratio distribution downstream drastically.

Keywords: bi-propellant thrusters, CIP-LSM, free-surface flow simulation, impinging jet atomization

Procedia PDF Downloads 275
718 A Comprehensive Characterization of Cell-free RNA in Spent Blastocyst Medium and Quality Prediction for Blastocyst

Authors: Huajuan Shi

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Background: The biopsy of the preimplantation embryo may increase the potential risk and concern of embryo viability. Clinically discarded spent embryo medium (SEM) has entered the view of researchers, sparking an interest in noninvasive embryo screening. However, one of the major restrictions is the extremelty low quantity of cf-RNA, which is difficult to efficiently and unbiased amplify cf-RNA using traditional methods. Hence, there is urgently need to an efficient and low bias amplification method which can comprehensively and accurately obtain cf-RNA information to truly reveal the state of SEM cf-RNA. Result: In this present study, we established an agarose PCR amplification system, and has significantly improved the amplification sensitivity and efficiency by ~90 fold and 9.29 %, respectively. We applied agarose to sequencing library preparation (named AG-seq) to quantify and characterize cf-RNA in SEM. The number of detected cf-RNAs (3533 vs 598) and coverage of 3' end were significantly increased, and the noise of low abundance gene detection was reduced. The increasing percentage 5' end adenine and alternative splicing (AS) events of short fragments (< 400 bp) were discovered by AG-seq. Further, the profiles and characterizations of cf-RNA in spent cleavage medium (SCM) and spent blastocyst medium (SBM) indicated that 4‐mer end motifs of cf-RNA fragments could remarkably differentiate different embryo development stages. Significance: This study established an efficient and low-cost SEM amplification and library preparation method. Not only that, we successfully described the characterizations of SEM cf-RNA of preimplantation embryo by using AG-seq, including abundance features fragment lengths. AG-seq facilitates the study of cf-RNA as a noninvasive embryo screening biomarker and opens up potential clinical utilities of trace samples.

Keywords: cell-free RNA, agarose, spent embryo medium, RNA sequencing, non-invasive detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 55
717 Large Eddy Simulation of Hydrogen Deflagration in Open Space and Vented Enclosure

Authors: T. Nozu, K. Hibi, T. Nishiie

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This paper discusses the applicability of the numerical model for a damage prediction method of the accidental hydrogen explosion occurring in a hydrogen facility. The numerical model was based on an unstructured finite volume method (FVM) code “NuFD/FrontFlowRed”. For simulating unsteady turbulent combustion of leaked hydrogen gas, a combination of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a combustion model were used. The combustion model was based on a two scalar flamelet approach, where a G-equation model and a conserved scalar model expressed a propagation of premixed flame surface and a diffusion combustion process, respectively. For validation of this numerical model, we have simulated the previous two types of hydrogen explosion tests. One is open-space explosion test, and the source was a prismatic 5.27 m3 volume with 30% of hydrogen-air mixture. A reinforced concrete wall was set 4 m away from the front surface of the source. The source was ignited at the bottom center by a spark. The other is vented enclosure explosion test, and the chamber was 4.6 m × 4.6 m × 3.0 m with a vent opening on one side. Vent area of 5.4 m2 was used. Test was performed with ignition at the center of the wall opposite the vent. Hydrogen-air mixtures with hydrogen concentrations close to 18% vol. were used in the tests. The results from the numerical simulations are compared with the previous experimental data for the accuracy of the numerical model, and we have verified that the simulated overpressures and flame time-of-arrival data were in good agreement with the results of the previous two explosion tests.

Keywords: deflagration, large eddy simulation, turbulent combustion, vented enclosure

Procedia PDF Downloads 236
716 Analyzing Changes in Runoff Patterns Due to Urbanization Using SWAT Models

Authors: Asawari Ajay Avhad

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The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model designed to predict the complex interactions within natural and human-altered watersheds. This research applies the SWAT model to the Ulhas River basin, a small watershed undergoing urbanization and characterized by bowl-like topography. Three simulation scenarios (LC17, LC22, and LC27) are investigated, each representing different land use and land cover (LULC) configurations, to assess the impact of urbanization on runoff. The LULC for the year 2027 is generated using the MOLUSCE Plugin of QGIS, incorporating various spatial factors such as DEM, Distance from Road, Distance from River, Slope, and distance from settlements. Future climate data is simulated within the SWAT model using historical data spanning 30 years. A susceptibility map for runoff across the basin is created, classifying runoff into five susceptibility levels ranging from very low to very high. Sub-basins corresponding to major urban settlements are identified as highly susceptible to runoff. With consideration of future climate projections, a slight increase in runoff is forecasted. The reliability of the methodology was validated through the identification of sub-basins known for experiencing severe flood events, which were determined to be highly susceptible to runoff. The susceptibility map successfully pinpointed these sub-basins with a track record of extreme flood occurrences, thus reinforcing the credibility of the assessment methodology. This study suggests that the methodology employed could serve as a valuable tool in flood management planning.

Keywords: future land use impact, flood management, run off prediction, ArcSWAT

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715 Evaluating Traffic Congestion Using the Bayesian Dirichlet Process Mixture of Generalized Linear Models

Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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This study applied traffic speed and occupancy to develop clustering models that identify different traffic conditions. Particularly, these models are based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture of Generalized Linear regression (DML) and change-point regression (CR). The model frameworks were implemented using 2015 historical traffic data aggregated at a 15-minute interval from an Interstate 295 freeway in Jacksonville, Florida. Using the deviance information criterion (DIC) to identify the appropriate number of mixture components, three traffic states were identified as free-flow, transitional, and congested condition. Results of the DML revealed that traffic occupancy is statistically significant in influencing the reduction of traffic speed in each of the identified states. Influence on the free-flow and the congested state was estimated to be higher than the transitional flow condition in both evening and morning peak periods. Estimation of the critical speed threshold using CR revealed that 47 mph and 48 mph are speed thresholds for congested and transitional traffic condition during the morning peak hours and evening peak hours, respectively. Free-flow speed thresholds for morning and evening peak hours were estimated at 64 mph and 66 mph, respectively. The proposed approaches will facilitate accurate detection and prediction of traffic congestion for developing effective countermeasures.

Keywords: traffic congestion, multistate speed distribution, traffic occupancy, Dirichlet process mixtures of generalized linear model, Bayesian change-point detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 284