Search results for: census station procedure

Authors: Paula Costa, Ana Picado, Filomena Pinto, Justina Catarino

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Environmental impact associated with large scale shale gas development is of major concern to the public, policy makers and other stakeholders. To assess this impact on the atmosphere, it is important to monitoring ambient air quality prior to and during all shale gas operation stages. Baseline observations can provide a standard of the pre-shale gas development state of the environment. The lack of baseline concentrations was identified as an important knowledge gap to assess the impact of emissions to the air due to shale gas operations. In fact baseline monitoring of air quality are missing in several regions, where there is a strong possibility of future shale gas exploration. This makes it difficult to properly identify, quantify and characterize environmental impacts that may be associated with shale gas development. The implementation of a baseline air monitoring program is imperative to be able to assess the total emissions related with shale gas operations. In fact, any monitoring programme should be designed to provide indicative information on background levels. A baseline air monitoring program should identify and characterize targeted air pollutants, most frequently described from monitoring and emission measurements, as well as those expected from hydraulic fracturing activities, and establish ambient air conditions prior to start-up of potential emission sources from shale gas operations. This program has to be planned for at least one year accounting for ambient variations. In the literature, in addition to GHG emissions of CH4, CO2 and nitrogen oxides (NOx), fugitive emissions from shale gas production can release volatile organic compounds (VOCs), aldehydes (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). The VOCs include a.o., benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, hexanes, 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, styrene. The concentrations of six air pollutants (ozone, particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), and lead) whose regional ambient air levels are regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are often discussed. However, the main concern in the emissions to air associated to shale gas operations, seems to be the leakage of methane. Methane is identified as a compound of major concern due to its strong global warming potential. The identification of methane leakage from shale gas activities is complex due to the existence of several other CH4 sources (e.g. landfill, agricultural activity or gas pipeline/compressor station). An integrated monitoring study of methane emissions may be a suitable mean of distinguishing the contribution of different sources of methane to ambient levels. All data analysis needs to be carefully interpreted taking, also, into account the meteorological conditions of the site. This may require the implementation of a more intensive monitoring programme. So, it is essential the development of a low-cost sampling strategy, suitable for establishing pre-operations baseline data as well as an integrated monitoring program to assess the emissions from shale gas operation sites. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 640715.

Keywords: air emissions, baseline, green house gases, shale gas

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Authors: Dimitriya A. Mihaylova, Zlatka V. Valkova-Jarvis, Georgi L. Iliev

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One possible approach for maintaining the security of communication systems relies on Physical Layer Security mechanisms. However, in wireless time division duplex systems, where uplink and downlink channels are reciprocal, the channel estimate procedure is exposed to attacks known as pilot contamination, with the aim of having an enhanced data signal sent to the malicious user. The Shifted 2-N-PSK method involves two random legitimate pilots in the training phase, each of which belongs to a constellation, shifted from the original N-PSK symbols by certain degrees. In this paper, legitimate pilots’ offset values and their influence on the detection capabilities of the Shifted 2-N-PSK method are investigated. As the implementation of the technique depends on the relation between the shift angles rather than their specific values, the optimal interconnection between the two legitimate constellations is investigated. The results show that no regularity exists in the relation between the pilot contamination attacks (PCA) detection probability and the choice of offset values. Therefore, an adversary who aims to obtain the exact offset values can only employ a brute-force attack but the large number of possible combinations for the shifted constellations makes such a type of attack difficult to successfully mount. For this reason, the number of optimal shift value pairs is also studied for both 100% and 98% probabilities of detecting pilot contamination attacks. Although the Shifted 2-N-PSK method has been broadly studied in different signal-to-noise ratio scenarios, in multi-cell systems the interference from the signals in other cells should be also taken into account. Therefore, the inter-cell interference impact on the performance of the method is investigated by means of a large number of simulations. The results show that the detection probability of the Shifted 2-N-PSK decreases inversely to the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio.

Keywords: channel estimation, inter-cell interference, pilot contamination attacks, wireless communications

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Authors: Amèdédjihundé H. J. Hounnou, Frédéric Dubas, François-Xavier Fifatin, Didier Chamagne, Antoine Vianou

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This paper presents the techno-economic evaluation of run-of-river small-hydropower plants. In this regard, a multi-objective optimization procedure is proposed for the optimal sizing of the hydropower plants, and NSGAII is employed as the optimization algorithm. Annual generated energy and investment cost are considered as the objective functions, and number of generator units (n) and nominal turbine flow rate (Q_T) constitute the decision variables. Site of Yeripao in Benin is considered as the case study. We have categorized the river of this site using its environmental characteristics: gross head, and first quartile, median, third quartile and mean of flow. Effects of each decision variable on the objective functions are analysed. The results gave Pareto Front which represents the trade-offs between annual energy generation and the investment cost of hydropower plants, as well as the recommended optimal solutions. We noted that with the increase of the annual energy generation, the investment cost rises. Thus, maximizing energy generation is contradictory with minimizing the investment cost. Moreover, we have noted that the solutions of Pareto Front are grouped according to the number of generator units (n). The results also illustrate that the costs per kWh are grouped according to the n and rise with the increase of the nominal turbine flow rate. The lowest investment costs per kWh are obtained for n equal to one and are between 0.065 and 0.180 €/kWh. Following the values of n (equal to 1, 2, 3 or 4), the investment cost and investment cost per kWh increase almost linearly with increasing the nominal turbine flowrate while annual generated. Energy increases logarithmically with increasing of the nominal turbine flowrate. This study made for the Yeripao river can be applied to other rivers with their own characteristics.

Keywords: hydropower plant, investment cost, multi-objective optimization, number of generator units

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Authors: Asegid Belay Kebede, Getachew Biru Worku

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The Earth and its inhabitants have faced an existential threat as a result of severe manmade actions. Global warming and climate change have been the most apparent manifestations of this threat throughout the world, with increasingly intense heat waves, temperature rises, flooding, sea-level rise, ice sheet melting, and so on. One of the major contributors to this disaster is the ever-increasing production and consumption of energy, which is still primarily fossil-based and emits billions of tons of hazardous GHG. The transportation industry is recognized as the biggest actor in terms of emissions, accounting for 24% of direct CO2 emissions and being one of the few worldwide sectors where CO2 emissions are still growing. Rail transportation, which includes all from light rail transit to high-speed rail services, is regarded as one of the most efficient modes of transportation, accounting for 9% of total passenger travel and 7% of total freight transit. Nonetheless, there is still room for improvement in the transportation sector, which might be done by incorporating alternative and/or renewable energy sources. As a result of these rapidly changing global energy situations and rapidly dwindling fossil fuel supplies, we were driven to analyze the possibility of renewable energy sources for traction applications. Even a small achievement in energy conservation or harnessing might significantly influence the total railway system and have the potential to transform the railway sector like never before. As a result, the paper begins by assessing the potential for photovoltaic (PV) power generation on train rooftops and existing infrastructure such as railway depots, passenger stations, traction substation rooftops, and accessible land along rail lines. As a result, a method based on a Google Earth system (using Helioscopes software) is developed to assess the PV potential along rail lines and on train station roofs. As an example, the Addis Ababa light rail transit system (AA-LRTS) is utilized. The case study examines the electricity-generating potential and economic performance of photovoltaics installed on AALRTS. As a consequence, the overall capacity of solar systems on all stations, including train rooftops, reaches 72.6 MWh per day, with an annual power output of 10.6 GWh. Throughout a 25-year lifespan, the overall CO2 emission reduction and total profit from PV-AA-LRTS can reach 180,000 tons and 892 million Ethiopian birrs, respectively. The PV-AA-LRTS has a 200% return on investment. All PV stations have a payback time of less than 13 years, and the price of solar-generated power is less than $0.08/kWh, which can compete with the benchmark price of coal-fired electricity. Our findings indicate that PV-AA-LRTS has tremendous potential, with both energy and economic advantages.

Keywords: sustainable development, global warming, energy crisis, photovoltaic energy conversion, techno-economic analysis, transportation system, light rail transit

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Authors: Lourenço Bastos, Filipa Carneiro, Bruno Vale, Rita Marques Joana Silva, Ricardo Freitas, Ângelo Marques, Sara Cortez, Alberta Coelho, Pedro Parreira, Liliana Sousa, Anabela Salgueiro, Bruno Silva

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The process of flushing is considered to be an adequate technique to reduce the risk of infection during the clinical practice of venous catheterization. Nonetheless, there is still a lack of adhesion to this method, in part due to the complexity of this procedure. The project SeringaDuo aimed to develop an innovative double-chamber syringe for intravenous sequential administration of drugs and serums. This device served the purpose of improving the adherence to the practice, through the reduction of manipulations needed, which also improves patient safety, and though the promotion of flushing practice by health professionals, by simplifying this task. To assist on the development of this innovative syringe, a numerical methodology was developed and validated in order to predict the syringe’s mechanical and flow behavior during the fluids’ loading and administration phases, as well as to allow the material behavior evaluation during its production. For this, three commercial numerical simulation software was used, namely ABAQUS, ANSYS/FLUENT, and MOLDFLOW. This methodology aimed to evaluate the concepts feasibility and to optimize the geometries of the syringe’s components, creating this way an iterative process for product development based on numerical simulations, validated by the production of prototypes. Through this methodology, it was possible to achieve a final design that fulfils all the characteristics and specifications defined. This iterative process based on numerical simulations is a powerful tool for product development that allows obtaining fast and accurate results without the strict need for prototypes. An iterative process can be implemented, consisting of consecutive constructions and evaluations of new concepts, to obtain an optimized solution, which fulfils all the predefined specifications and requirements.

Keywords: Venous catheterization, flushing, syringe, numerical simulation

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Authors: R. S. Giraddi, B. Thirupam Reddy, D. N. Kambrekar

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Chilli (Capsicum annum L.) an important commercial vegetable crop is ravaged by a number of insect-pests during both vegetative and reproductive phase resulting into significant crop loss.Thrips, Scirtothripsdorsalis, mite, Polyphagotarsonemuslatus and whitefly, Bemisiatabaci are the key sap feeding insects, their infestation leads to leaf curl, stunted growth and yield loss.During flowering and fruit formation stage, gall midge fly, Asphondyliacapparis (Rubsaaman) infesting flower buds and young fruits andHelicoverpaarmigera (Hubner) feeding on matured green fruits are the important insect pests causing significant crop loss.The pest is known to infest both flower buds and young fruits resulting into malformation of flower buds and twisting of fruits.In order to manage these insect-pests a combi product consisting of imidacloprid and betacyfluthrin (Soloman 300 OD) was evaluated for its bio-efficacy, phytotoxicity and effect on predator activity.Imidacloprid, a systemic insecticide belonging to neo-nicotinoid group, is effective against insect pests such as aphids, whiteflies (sap feeders) and other insectsviz., termites and soil insects.Beta-Cyfluthrin is an insecticide of synthetic pyrethroid group which acts by contact action and ingestion. It acts on the insects' nervous system as sodium channel blocker consequently a disorder of the nervous system occurs leading finally to the death. The field experiments were taken up during 2015 and 2016 at the Main Agricultural Research Station of University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad, Karnataka, India.The trials were laid out in a Randomized Block Design (RBD) with three replications using popular land race of Byadagi crop variety.Results indicated that the product at 21.6 + 50.4% gai/ha (240 ml/ha) and 27.9 + 65% gai/ha (310 ml/ha) was found quite effective in controlling thrips (0.00 to 0.66 thrips per six leaves) as against the standard check insecticide recommended for thrips by the University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad wherein the density of thrips recorded was significantly higher (1.00 to 2.00 Nos./6 leaves). Similarly, the test insecticide was quite effective against other target insects, whiteflies, fruit borer and gall midge fly as indicated by lower insect population observed in the treatments as compared to standard insecticidal control. The predatory beetle activity was found to be normal in all experimental plots. Highest green fruit yield of 5100-5500 kg/ha was recorded in Soloman 300 OD applied crop at 310 ml/ha rate as compared to 4750 to 5050 kg/ha recorded in check. At present 6-8 sprays of insecticides are recommended for management of these insect-pests on the crop. If combi-products are used in pest management programmes, it is possible to reduce insecticide usages in crop ecosystem.

Keywords: Imidacloprid, Betacyfluthrin, gallmidge fly, thrips, chilli

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Authors: Nemat Sokhandan Bashir

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Threats from viruses to agricultural crops could be even larger than the losses caused by the other pathogens because, in many cases, the viral infection is latent but crucial from an epidemic point of view. Wild vegetation can be a source of many viruses that eventually find their destiny in crop plants. Although often asymptomatic in wild plants due to adaptation, they can potentially cause serious losses in crops. Therefore, exploring viruses in wild vegetation is very important. Recently, omics have been quite useful for exploring plant viruses from various plant sources, especially wild vegetation. For instance, we have discovered viruses such as Ambrossia asymptomatic virus I (AAV-1) through the application of metagenomics from Oklahoma Prairie Reserve. Accordingly, extracts from randomly-sampled plants are subjected to high speed and ultracentrifugation to separated virus-like particles (VLP), then nucleic acids in the form of DNA or RNA are extracted from such VLPs by treatment with phenol—chloroform and subsequent precipitation by ethanol. The nucleic acid preparations are separately treated with RNAse or DNAse in order to determine the genome component of VLPs. In the case of RNAs, the complementary cDNAs are synthesized before submitting to DNA sequencing. However, for VLPs with DNA contents, the procedure would be relatively straightforward without making cDNA. Because the length of the nucleic acid content of VPLs can be different, various strategies are employed to achieve sequencing. Techniques similar to so-called "chromosome walking" may be used to achieve sequences of long segments. When the nucleotide sequence data were obtained, they were subjected to BLAST analysis to determine the most related previously reported virus sequences. In one case, we determined that the novel virus was AAV-l because the sequence comparison and analysis revealed that the reads were the closest to the Indian citrus ringspot virus (ICRSV). AAV—l had an RNA genome with 7408 nucleotides in length and contained six open reading frames (ORFs). Based on phylogenies inferred from the replicase and coat protein ORFs of the virus, it was placed in the genus Mandarivirus.

Keywords: wild, plant, novel, metagenomics

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Authors: Ayoade Adeyemi, Leo Nherera, Paul Trueman, Antje Emmermann

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Background and objectives: Radiofrequency (RF) generated plasma chondroplasty is considered a promising treatment alternative to mechanical debridement (MD) with a shaver. The aim of the study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing costs and outcomes following COBLATION chondroplasty versus mechanical debridement in patients with knee pain associated with a medial meniscus tear and idiopathic ICRS grade III focal lesion of the medial femoral condyle from a payer perspective. Methods: A decision-analytic model was developed comparing economic and clinical outcomes between the two treatment options in German patients following knee chondroplasty. Revision rates based on the frequency of repeat arthroscopy, osteotomy and conversion to total knee replacement, reimbursement costs and outcomes data over a 4-year time horizon were extracted from published literature. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainties around model parameters. Threshold analysis determined the revision rate at which model results change. All costs were reported in 2016 euros, future costs were discounted at a 3% annual rate. Results: Over a 4 year period, COBLATION chondroplasty resulted in an overall net saving cost of €461 due to a lower revision rate of 14% compared to 48% with MD. Threshold analysis showed that both options were associated with comparable costs if COBLATION revision rate was assumed to increase up to 23%. The initial procedure costs for COBLATION were higher compared to MD and outcome scores were significantly improved at 1 and 4 years post-operation versus MD. Conclusion: The analysis shows that COBLATION chondroplasty is a cost-effective option compared to mechanical debridement in the treatment of patients with a medial meniscus tear and idiopathic ICRS grade III defect of the medial femoral condyle.

Keywords: COBLATION, cost-effectiveness, knee chondroplasty, mechanical debridement

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Authors: Tomasz Zarebski

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A very important element of the education system is its evaluation procedure. Each education system should be systematically evaluated and improved. Among the criteria subject to evaluation, attention should be paid to the following: structure of the study programme, implementation of the study programme, admission to studies, verification of learning outcomes achievement by students, giving credit for individual semesters and years, and awarding diplomas, competence, experience, qualifications and the number of staff providing education, staff development, and in-service training, education infrastructure, cooperation with social and economic stakeholders on the development, conditions for and methods of improving the internationalisation of education provided as part of the degree programme, supporting learning, social, academic or professional development of students and their entry on the labour market, public access to information about the study programme and quality assurance policy. Concerning the assessment process and the individual assessment indicators, the participation of students in these processes is essential. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the rules of student participation in accreditation processes on the example of individual countries in Europe. The rules of students' participation in the work of accreditation committees and their influence on the final grade of the committee were analysed. Most of the higher education institutions follow similar rules for accreditation. The general model gives the individual institution freedom to organize its own quality assurance, as long as the system lives up to the criteria for quality and relevance laid down in the particular provisions. This point also applies to students. The regulations of the following countries were examined in the legal-comparative aspect: Poland (Polish Accreditation Committee), Denmark (The Danish Accreditation Institution), France (High Council for the Evaluation of Research and Higher Education), Germany (Agency for Quality Assurance through Accreditation of Study Programmes) and Italy (National Agency for the Evaluation of Universities and Research Institutes).

Keywords: accreditation, student, study programme, quality assurance in higher education

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Authors: Leslie M. Mullins

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In the face of dramatically shifting demographic trends and macroeconomic pressures on affordable housing in high-cost cities, municipalities and developers have been forced to develop new models of sustainable development that integrates elements of substantial rehabilitation and new construction while controlling for relocation and mass displacement. Community development partners in the San Francisco Bay Area of Northern California are starting to prioritize anti-displacement strategies when rehabilitating severely neglected public housing developments. This study explored the community-driven efforts to transform four dilapidated public housing sites (N=2,600 households) into thriving mixed-income housing communities. Eight interviews were conducted with frontline workers (property managers and service providers), who directly worked with residents throughout critical stages of the relocation and leasing process. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed by a systematic procedure for qualitative analysis to identify key themes on the topics of interest. Also, an extensive literature analysis was conducted to determine promising practices throughout the industry. This study highlighted that resident’s emotional attachment to their homes (regardless of the deteriorating conditions of their unit) could both a) impede the relocation process and substantially impact the budget and timeline, while b) simultaneously providing a basis for an enhanced sense of belonging and community cohesion. This phenomenon often includes the welcoming of new residents and cultures. Resident centered workshops, healing centered rituals, and extensive 'hands-on' guidance was highlighted as promising practices that resulted in residential retention rates that were two to three times the national average and positively impacted the overall project’s budget and timeline.

Keywords: anti-displacement strategies, community based practices, community cohesion, cultural preservation, healing-centered, public housing, relocation, trauma-informed

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Authors: Jennifer Fane, Mike Gray, Melissa Sager

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Children with diagnosed or suspected learning disabilities frequently experience significant skill gaps in foundational learning areas such as reading, writing, and math. Remedial one-to-one instruction is a highly effective means of supporting children with learning differences in building these foundational skills and closing the learning gap between them and their same-age peers. However, due to the learning challenges children with learning disabilities face, and ensuing challenges with self-confidence, many children with learning differences struggle with motivation and self-regulation within remedial one-to-one learning environments - despite the benefits of these sessions. Socially Assistive Robots (SARs) are an innovative educational technology tool that has been trialled in a range of educational settings to support diverse learning needs. Yet, little is known about the impact of SARs on the learning of children with learning differences in a one-to-one remedial instructional setting. This study sought to explore the impact of SARs on the engagement of children (n=9) with learning differences attending one-to-one remedial instruction sessions at a non-profit remedial education provider. The study used a mixed-methods design to explore learner engagement during learning tasks both with and without the use of a SAR to investigate how the use of SARs impacts student learning. The study took place over five weeks, with each session within the study followed the same procedure with the SAR acting as a teaching assistant when in use. Data from the study included analysis of time-sample video segments of the instructional sessions, instructor recorded information about the student’s progress towards their session learning goal and student self-reported mood and energy levels before and after the session. Analysis of the findings indicates that the use of SARs resulted in fewer instances of off-task behaviour and less need for instructor re-direction during learning tasks, allowing students to work in more sustained ways towards their learning goals. This initial research indicates that the use of SARs does have a material and measurable impact on learner engagement for children with learning differences and that further exploration of the impact of SARs during one-to-one remedial instruction is warranted.

Keywords: engagement, learning differences, learning disabilities, instruction, social robotics.

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Authors: Vorapoj Promasatayaprot, Sumattana Glangkarn

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Background: Early childhood, the first five years of life, is a time of rapid cognitive, linguistic, social, emotional and motor development. This study was descriptive research which the main purpose of this research was to study early childhood development in Child Center of Local Government in order to emphasize the public citizen and communities participate in the Child Development Center. Method: The study designed was Action Research and divided into four steps consisted of (1) Planning (2) Acting (3) Observing and (4) Reflecting. This study was employed the areas and the subjects consisted of 10 committees of the Child Center in Thakhonyang municipality, Kantharawichai District, Maha Sarakham Province, Thailand and 50 representative parents by using the purposive sampling technique. The instrument used in this study were questionnaires. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistic; percentage, mean, standard deviation, maximum value, minimum, median. Qualitative data was collected using the observation and interview and was analysed by content analysis. Results: The results of this research were as follows: The promoting of early childhood development in child center at Thakhonyang Municipality, Kantharawichai District, Maha Sarakham Province, Thailand were 6 procedures ; (1) workshop participation (2) workshop in action plan (3) performing in action plan (4) following supervision (5) self – assessment (6) knowledge sharing seminar. The service model of the Local Fund Health Security in Thailand was passed the qualifications of local fund health security by 6 procedures to be the high potential local fund health security. Conclusion: The key success is that the commission will have to respond the performance at all process of plan to address the issue in the future. Factor of success is to community participate with transparent procedure. Coordination committee should manipulate the child center benefits among stake holders.

Keywords: child center, develop, early childhood development, local government, promote

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Authors: Devendra Gupta, S. P. Ambesh, P. K Singh

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Introduction: Minimally invasive coronary artery bypass grafting (MICABG) is a less invasive method of performing surgical revascularization. Minimally invasive direct coronary artery bypass (MIDCAB) provides many anesthetic challenges including one lung ventilation (OLV), managing myocardial ischemia, and pain. We present an early and midterm result of the use of this technique with OLV. Method: We enrolled 62 patients for analysis operated between 2008 and 2012. Patients were anesthetized and left endobronchial tube was placed. During the procedure left lung was isolated and one lung ventilation was maintained through right lung. Operation was performed utilizing off pump technique of coronary artery bypass grafting through a minimal invasive incision. Left internal mammary artery graft was done for single vessel disease and radial artery was utilized for other grafts if required. Postoperative ventilation was done with single lumen endotracheal tube. Median follow-up is 2.5 years (6 months to 4 years). Results: Median age was 58.5 years (41-77) and all were male. Single vessel disease was present in 36, double vessel in 24 and triple vessel disease in 2 patients. All the patients had normal left ventricular size and function. In 2 cases difficulty were encounter in placement of endobronchial tube. In 1 case cuff of endobronchial tube was ruptured during intubation. High airway pressure was developed on OLV in 1 case and surgery was accomplished with two lung anesthesia with low tidal volume. Mean postoperative ventilation time was 14.4 hour (11-22). There was no perioperative and 30 day mortality. Conversion to median sternotomy to complete the operation was done in 3.23% (2 out of 62 patients). One patient had acute myocardial infarction postoperatively and there were no deaths during follow-up. Conclusion: MICABG is a safe and effective method of revascularization with OLV in low risk candidates for coronary artery bypass grafting.

Keywords: MIDCABG, one lung ventilation, coronary artery bypass grafting, endobronchial tube

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Authors: Samuel Oye Bandele

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A policy is a system of principles to guide activities and strategic decisions of an organisation in order to achieve stated objectives and meeting expected outcomes. A Computer Based Test (CBT) policy is therefore a statement of intent to drive the CBT programmes, and should be implemented as a procedure or protocol. Policies are hence generally adopted by an organization or a nation. The concern here, in this paper, is the consideration and analysis of issues that are significant to evolving the acceptable policy that will drive the new CBT innovation in Nigeria. Public examinations and internal examinations in higher educational institutions in Nigeria are gradually making a radical shift from Paper Based or Paper-Pencil to Computer-Based Testing. The need to make an objective and empirical analysis of Policy issues relating to CBT became expedient. The following are some of the issues on CBT evolution in Nigeria that were identified as requiring policy backing. Prominent among them are requirements for establishing CBT centres, purpose of CBT, types and acquisition of CBT equipment, qualifications of staff: professional, technical and regular, security plans and curbing of cheating during examinations, among others. The descriptive research design was employed based on a population consisting of Principal Officers (Policymakers), Staff (Teaching and non-Teaching-Policy implementors), and CBT staff ( Technical and Professional- Policy supports) and candidates (internal and external). A fifty-item researcher-constructed questionnaire on policy issues was employed to collect data from 600 subjects drawn from higher institutions in South West Nigeria, using the purposive and stratified random sampling techniques. Data collected were analysed using descriptive (frequency counts, means and standard deviation) and inferential (t-test, ANOVA, regression and Factor analysis) techniques. Findings from this study showed, among others, that the factor loadings had significantly weights on the organizational and National policy issues on CBT innovation in Nigeria.

Keywords: computer-based testing, examination, innovation, paper-based testing, paper pencil based testing, policy issues

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Authors: Ehsan Pegah, Huabei Liu

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Characterizing the deformation properties of fill materials in a wide stress range always has been an important issue in geotechnical engineering. The hyperbolic Duncan-Chang model is a very popular model of stress-strain relationship that captures the nonlinear deformation of granular geomaterials in a very tractable manner. It consists of a particular set of the model parameters, which are generally measured from an extensive series of laboratory triaxial tests. This practice is both time-consuming and costly, especially in large projects. In addition, undesired effects caused by soil disturbance during the sampling procedure also may yield a large degree of uncertainty in the results. Accordingly, non-invasive geophysical seismic approaches may be utilized as the appropriate alternative surveys for measuring the model parameters based on the seismic wave velocities. To this end, the conventional seismic refraction profiles were carried out in the test sites with the granular fill materials to collect the seismic waves information. The acquired shot gathers are processed, from which the P- and S-wave velocities can be derived. The P-wave velocities are extracted from the Seismic Refraction Tomography (SRT) technique while S-wave velocities are obtained by the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) method. The velocity values were then utilized with the equations resulting from the rigorous theories of elasticity and soil mechanics to evaluate the Duncan-Chang model parameters. The derived parameters were finally compared with those from laboratory tests to validate the reliability of the results. The findings of this study may confidently serve as the useful references for determination of nonlinear deformation parameters of granular fill geomaterials. Those are environmentally friendly and quite economic, which can yield accurate results under the actual in-situ conditions using the surface seismic methods.

Keywords: Duncan-Chang deformation parameters, granular fill materials, seismic waves velocity, multichannel analysis of surface waves, seismic refraction tomography

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshenas, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Surgical procedures aim at preserving human life and improving quality of their life. However, there are many potential risk sources that can cause serious harm to patients. For centuries, managers believed that technical competence of a surgeon is the only key to a successful surgery. But over the past decade, risks are considered in terms of process-based safety procedures, teamwork and inter departmental communication. Aims: This study aims to determine how the process- biased surgical risk management should be done in terms of project management tool named ABS (Activity Breakdown Structure). Settings and Design: This study was conducted in two stages. First, literature review and meeting with professors was done to determine principles and framework of surgical risk management. Next, responsible teams for surgical patient journey were involved in following meeting to develop the process- biased surgical risk management. Methods and Material: This study is a qualitative research in which focus groups with the inductive approach is used. Sampling was performed to achieve representativeness through intensity sampling biased on experience and seniority. Analysis Method used: context analysis of interviews and consensus themes extracted from FDG meetings discussion was the analysis tool. Results: we developed the patient journey process in 5 main phases, 24 activities and 108 tasks. Then, responsible teams, transposition and allocated places for performing determined. Some activities and tasks themes were repeated in each phases like patient identification and records review because of their importance. Conclusions: Risk management of surgical departments is significant as this facility is the hospital’s largest cost and revenue center. Good communication between surgical team and other clinical teams outside surgery department through process- biased perspective could improve safety of patient under this procedure.

Keywords: risk management, activity breakdown structure (ABS), surgical department, medical sciences

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Authors: Laura C. Dapp, Claudia M. Roebers

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Being physically active has many benefits for children and adolescents. It is crucial for various aspects of physical and mental health, the development of a healthy self-concept, and also positively influences academic performance and school achievement. In addressing the still incomplete understanding of the link between physical activity (PA) and academic achievement, the current study scrutinized the open issue of how PA has to be implemented to positively affect mathematical outcomes in N = 138 fourth graders. Therefore, the current study distinguished between structured PA (formal, organized, adult-led exercise and deliberate sports practice) and unstructured PA (non-formal, playful, peer-led physically active play and sports activities). Results indicated that especially structured PA has the potential to contribute to mathematical outcomes. Although children spent almost twice as much time engaging in unstructured PA as compared to structured PA, only structured PA was significantly related to mathematical achievement as well as to mathematical self-concept. Furthermore, the pending issue concerning the quantity of PA needed to enhance children’s mathematical achievement was addressed. As to that, results indicated that the amount of time spent in structured PA constitutes a critical factor in accounting for mathematical outcomes, since children engaging in PA for two hours or more a week were shown to be both the ones with the highest mathematical self-concept as well as those attaining the highest mathematical achievement scores. Finally, the present study investigated the indirect effect of PA on mathematical achievement by controlling for the mathematical self-concept as a mediating variable. The results of a maximum likelihood mediation analysis with a 2’000 resampling bootstrapping procedure for the 95% confidence intervals revealed a full mediation, indicating that PA improves mathematical self-concept, which, in turn, positively affects mathematical achievement. Thus, engaging in high amounts of structured PA constitutes an advantageous leisure activity for children and adolescents, not only to enhance their physical health but also to foster their self-concept in a way that is favorable and encouraging for promoting their academic achievement. Note: The content of this abstract is partially based on a paper published elswhere by the authors.

Keywords: Academic Achievement, Mathematical Performance, Physical Activity, Self-Concept

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Authors: Saurabh Sharma

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Introduction: The case study deals with the ground stabilisation of Nabi Karim Metro Station in Delhi, India, wherein an extremely complex geology was encountered while excavating the tunnelling shaft for launching Tunnel Boring Machine. The borelog investigation and the Seismic Refraction Technique (SRT) indicated towards the presence of an extremely hard rocky mass from a depth of 3-4 m itself, and accordingly, the Geotechnical Interpretation Report (GIR) concluded the presence of Grade-IV rock from 3m onwards and presence of Grade-III and better rock from 5-6m onwards. Accordingly, it was planned to retain the ground by providing secant piles all around the launching shaft and then excavating the shaft vertically after leaving a berm of 1.5m to prevent secant piles from getting exposed. To retain the side slopes, rock bolting with shotcreting and wire meshing were proposed, which is a normal practice in such strata. However, with the increase in depth of excavation, the rock quality kept on decreasing at an unexpected and surprising pace, with the Grade-III rock mass at 5-6 m converting to conglomerate formation at the depth of 15m. This worsening of geology from high grade rock to slushy conglomerate formation can never be predicted and came as a surprise to even the best geotechnical engineers. Since the excavation had already been cut down vertically to manage the shaft size, the execution was continued with enhanced cautions to stabilise the side slopes. But, when the shaft work was about to finish, a collapse was encountered on one side of the excavation shaft. This collapse was unexpected and surprising since all measures to stabilise the side slopes had been taken after face mapping, and the grid size, diameter, and depth of the rockbolts had already been readjusted to accommodate rock fractures. The above scenario was baffling even to the best geologists and geotechnical engineers, and it was decided that any further slope stabilisation scheme shall have to be designed in such a way to ensure safe completion of works. Accordingly, following revisions to excavation scheme were made: The excavation would be carried while maintaining a slope based on type of soil/rock. The rock bolt type was changed from SN rockbolts to Self Drilling type anchor. The grid size of the bolts changed on real time assessment. the excavation carried out by implementing a ‘Bench Release Approach’. Aggressive Real Time Instrumentation Scheme. Discussion: The above case Study again asserts vitality of correct interpretation of the geological strata and the need of real time revisions of the construction schemes based on the actual site data. The excavation is successfully being done with the above revised scheme, and further details of the Revised Slope Stabilisation Scheme, Instrumentation Schemes, Monitoring results, along with the actual site photographs, shall form the part of the final Paper.

Keywords: unconfined compressive strength (ucs), rock mass rating (rmr), rock bolts, self drilling anchors, face mapping of rock, secant pile, shotcrete

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Authors: Dmitry Aron

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Major radiation accidents carry not only the potential risks of negative consequences for public health due to exposure but also because of large-scale emergency measures were taken by authorities to protect the population, which can lead to unreasonable social and economic damage. It is technically difficult, as a rule, to assess the possible costs and damages from decisions on evacuation or resettlement of residents in the shortest possible time, since it requires specially prepared information systems containing relevant information on demographic, economic parameters and incoming data on radiation conditions. Foreign observers also face the difficulties in assessing the consequences of an accident in a foreign territory, since they usually do not have official and detailed statistical data on the territory of foreign state beforehand. Also, they can suppose the application of unofficial data from open Internet sources is an unreliable and overly labor-consuming procedure. This paper describes an approach to prompt creation of relational database that contains detailed actual data on economics, demographics and radiation situation at the Fukushima Prefecture during the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident, received by the author from open Internet sources. This database was developed and used to assess the number of evacuated population, radiation doses, expected financial losses and other parameters of the affected areas. The costs for the areas with temporarily evacuated and long-term resettled population were investigated, and the radiological and economic effectiveness of the measures taken to protect the population was estimated. Some of the results are presented in the article. The study showed that such a tool for analyzing the consequences of radiation accidents can be prepared in a short space of time for the entire territory of Japan, and it can serve for the modeling of social and economic consequences for hypothetical accidents for any nuclear power plant in its territory.

Keywords: Fukushima, radiation accident, emergency measures, database

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Saira Maqbool, Qaisara Parveen, Muhammad Arshad Dahar

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Improving females' involvement in management and enterprises in Pakistan requires the development of female entrepreneurs as leaders. Entrepreneurial education aims for providing students the knowledge, aptitudes and motivation to energize innovative accomplishment in various settings. Assortments of venture instruction are advertised at all stages of mentoring, from fundamental or discretionary institutes through graduate institutional platforms. The business enterprise will be considered the procedure by which a looming business visionary or business person pursues after openings without respect to the resources they directly regulate. This entails the ability of the business visionary to join every single other generation. This study explores the relationship between developing Women's Leadership skills and Entrepreneurship Education The essential reason for this consider was to analyze the role of Entrepreneurship Edification (EE) towards women's Leadership and develop entrepreneurial intentions among students. The major goal of this study was to foster entrepreneurial attitudes among PMAS Arid Agriculture University undergraduate students concerning their choice to work for themselves. This study focuses on the motivation and interest of female students in the social sciences to build entrepreneurial leadership skills. The quantitative analysis used a true-experimental, pretest-posttest control group research design. Female undergraduate students from PMAS Arid Agriculture University made up the study population. For entrepreneurial activity, a training module has been created. The students underwent a three-week training program at PMAS Arid Agriculture University, where they learned about entrepreneurial leadership abilities. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and T-tests. The findings indicated that students acquired entrepreneurial leadership skills and intentions after training. They have decided to launch their businesses as leaders. It is advised that other PMAS Arid Agriculture University departments use the training module and course outline because the research's usage of them has important results.

Keywords: business, entrepreneurial, intentions, leadership, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: M. Miljkovic, A. Urakpo, M. Simic-Koumoutsaris

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Benefit-risk assessment (BRA) is a valuable tool that takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's lifecycle, and this assessment can be conducted in a variety of ways. The aim was to summarize current BRA methods used during approval decisions and in post-approval settings and to see possible future directions. Relevant reviews, recommendations, and guidelines published in medical literature and through regulatory agencies over the past five years have been examined. BRA implies the review of two dimensions: the dimension of benefits (determined mainly by the therapeutic efficacy) and the dimension of risks (comprises the safety profile of a drug). Regulators, industry, and academia have developed various approaches, ranging from descriptive textual (qualitative) to decision-analytic (quantitative) models, to facilitate the BRA of medicines during the product lifecycle (from Phase I trials, to authorization procedure, post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies). These approaches can be classified into the following categories: stepwise structured approaches (frameworks); measures for benefits and risks that are usually endpoint specific (metrics), simulation techniques and meta-analysis (estimation techniques), and utility survey techniques to elicit stakeholders’ preferences (utilities). All these approaches share the following two common goals: to assist this analysis and to improve the communication of decisions, but each is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Before using any method, its utility, complexity, the extent to which it is established, and the ease of results interpretation should be considered. Despite widespread and long-time use, BRA is subject to debate, suffers from a number of limitations, and currently is still under development. The use of formal, systematic structured approaches to BRA for regulatory decision-making and quantitative methods to support BRA during the product lifecycle is a standard practice in medicine that is subject to continuous improvement and modernization, not only in methodology but also in cooperation between organizations.

Keywords: benefit-risk assessment, benefit-risk profile, product lifecycle, quantitative methods, structured approaches

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Roongtiwa Chobchuen, Angkana Srikhan, Pattra Wattanapan

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Background: Neurogenic bowel is common condition after spinal cord injury. Most of spinal cord injured patients have motor weakness, mobility impairment which leads to constipation. Moreover, the neural pathway involving bowel function is interrupted. Therefore, the bowel management program should be implemented in nursing care in the earliest time after the onset of the disease to prevent the morbidity and mortality. Objective: To study the outcome of bowel management program of the patients with spinal cord injury who admitted for rehabilitation program. Study design: Descriptive study. Setting: Rehabilitation ward in Srinagarind Hospital. Populations: patients with subacute to chronic spinal cord injury who admitted at rehabilitation ward, Srinagarind hospital, aged over 18 years old. Instrument: The neurogenic bowel dysfunction score (NBDS) was used to determine the severity of neurogenic bowel. Procedure and statistical analysis: All participants were asked to complete the demographic data; age gender, duration of disease, diagnosis. The individual bowel function was assessed using NBDS at admission. The patients and caregivers were trained by nurses about the bowel management program which consisted of diet modification, abdominal massage, digital stimulation, stool evacuation including medication and physical activity. The outcome of the bowel management program was assessed by NBDS at discharge. The chi-square test was used to detect the difference in severity of neurogenic bowel at admission and discharge. Results: Sixteen spinal cord injured patients were enrolled in the study (age 45 ± 17 years old, 69% were male). Most of them (50%) were tetraplegia. On the admission, 12.5%, 12.5%, 43.75% and 31.25% were categorized as very minor (NBDS 0-6), minor (NBDS 7-9), moderate (NBDS 10-13) and severe (NBDS 14+) respectively. The severity of neurogenic bowel was decreased significantly at discharge (56.25%, 18.755%, 18.75% and 6.25% for very minor, minor, moderate and severe group respectively; p < 0.001) compared with NBDS at admission. Conclusions: Implementation of the effective bowel program decrease the severity of the neurogenic bowel in patient with spinal cord injury.

Keywords: neurogenic bowel, NBDS, spinal cord injury, bowel program

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Martins A. Adefisoye, Mpaka Lindelwa, Fadare Folake, Anthony I. Okoh

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Evolution and rapid dissemination of antibiotic resistance from one ecosystem to another has been responsible for wide-scale epidemic and endemic spreads of multi-drug resistance pathogens. This study assessed the prevalence of Enterobacteriaceae in different environmental samples, including river water, hospital effluents, abattoir wastewater, animal rectal swabs and faecal droppings, soil, and vegetables, using standard microbiological procedure. The identity of the isolates were confirmed using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrophotometry (MALDI-TOF) while the isolates were profiled for resistance against a panel of 16 antibiotics using disc diffusion (DD) test, and the occurrence of resistance genes (ARG) was determined by polymerase chain reactions (PCR). Enterobacteriaceae counts in the samples range as follows: river water 4.0 × 101 – 2.0 × 104 cfu/100 ml, hospital effluents 1.5 × 103 – 3.0 × 107 cfu/100 ml, municipal wastewater 2.3 × 103 – 9.2 × 104 cfu/100 ml, faecal droppings 3.0 × 105 – 9.5 × 106 cfu/g, animal rectal swabs 3.0 × 102 – 2.9 × 107 cfu/ml, soil 0 – 1.2 × 105 cfu/g and vegetables 0 – 2.2 × 107 cfu/g. Of the 700 randomly selected presumptive isolates subjected to MALDI-TOF analysis, 129 (18.4%), 68 (9.7%), 67 (9.5%), 41 (5.9%) were E. coli, Klebsiella spp., Enterobacter spp., and Citrobacter spp. respectively while the remaining isolates belong to other genera not targeted in the study. The DD test shows resistance ranging between 91.6% (175/191) for cefuroxime and (15.2%, 29/191) for imipenem The predominant multiple antibiotic resistance phenotypes (MARP), (GM-AUG-AP-CTX-CXM-CIP-NOR-NI-C-NA-TS-T-DXT) occurred in 9 Klebsiella isolates. The multiple antibiotic resistance indices (MARI) the isolates (range 0.17–1.0) generally showed >95% had MARI above the 0.2 thresholds, suggesting that most of the isolates originate from high-risk environments with high antibiotic use and high selective pressure for the emergence of resistance. The associated ARG in the isolates include: bla TEM 61.9 (65), bla SHV 1.9 (2), bla OXA 8.6 (9), CTX-M-2 8.6 (9), CTX-M-9 6.7 (7), sul 2 26.7 (28), tet A 16.2 (17), tet M 17.1 (18), aadA 59.1 (62), strA 34.3 (36), aac(3)A 19.1 (20), (aa2)A 7.6 (8), and aph(3)-1A 10.5 (11). The results underscore the need for preventative measures to curb the proliferation of antibiotic-resistant bacteria including Enterobacteriaceae to protect public health.

Keywords: enterobacteriaceae, antibiotic-resistance, MALDI-TOF, resistance genes, MARP, MARI, public health

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Shahrzad Zolfagharnassab, Abdul Rashid Mohamed Shariff, Reza Ehsani, Hawa Ze Jaffar, Ishak Aris

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Ripeness estimation of oil palm fresh fruit is important processes that affect the profitableness and salability of oil palm fruits. The adulthood or ripeness of the oil palm fruits influences the quality of oil palm. Conventional procedure includes physical grading of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) maturity by calculating the number of loose fruits per bunch. This physical classification of oil palm FFB is costly, time consuming and the results may have human error. Hence, many researchers try to develop the methods for ascertaining the maturity of oil palm fruits and thereby, deviously the oil content of distinct palm fruits without the need for exhausting oil extraction and analysis. This research investigates the potential of infrared images (Thermal Images) as a predictor to classify the oil palm FFB ripeness. A total of 270 oil palm fresh fruit bunches from most common cultivar of oil palm bunches Nigresens according to three maturity categories: under ripe, ripe and over ripe were collected. Each sample was scanned by the thermal imaging cameras FLIR E60 and FLIR T440. The average temperature of each bunches were calculated by using image processing in FLIR Tools and FLIR ThermaCAM researcher pro 2.10 environment software. The results show that temperature content decreased from immature to over mature oil palm FFBs. An overall analysis-of-variance (ANOVA) test was proved that this predictor gave significant difference between underripe, ripe and overripe maturity categories. This shows that the temperature as predictors can be good indicators to classify oil palm FFB. Classification analysis was performed by using the temperature of the FFB as predictors through Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Mahalanobis Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and K- Nearest Neighbor (KNN) methods. The highest overall classification accuracy was 88.2% by using Artificial Neural Network. This research proves that thermal imaging and neural network method can be used as predictors of oil palm maturity classification.

Keywords: artificial neural network, maturity classification, oil palm FFB, thermal imaging

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Pankaj Singh Rawat, Rajeew Kumar, Pradeep Ram, Priyanka Pandey

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Wheat is an important cereal crop for food security. Boosting the wheat production and productivity is the major challenge across the nation. Good quality of seed is required for maintaining optimum plant stand which ultimately increases grain yield. Ensuring a good germination is one of the key steps to ensure proper plant stand and moisture assurance during seed germination may help to speed up the germination. The tiny size of nanoparticles may help in entry of water into seed without disturbing their internal structure. Considering above, a laboratory experiment was conducted during 2012-13 at G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, India. The completely randomized design was used for statistical analysis. The experiment was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, the appropriate concentration of nanoparticles for seed treatment was screened. In second phase seed soaking hours of nanoparticles for better seed germination were standardized. Wheat variety UP2526 was taken as test crop. Four nanoparticles (TiO₂, ZnO, nickel and chitosan) were taken for study. The crop germination studies were done in petri dishes and standard package and practices were used to raise the seedlings. The germination studies were done by following standard procedure. In first phase of the experiment, seeds were treated with 50 and 300 ppm of nanoparticles and control was also maintained for comparison. In the second phase of experiment, seeds were soaked for 4 hours, 6 hours and 8 hours with 50 ppm nanoparticles of TiO₂, ZnO, nickel and chitosan along with control treatment to identify the soaking time for better seed germination. Experiment revealed that the application of nanoparticles help to enhance seed germination. The study revealed that seed treatment with  nanoparticles at 50 ppm concentration increases root length, shoot length, seedling length, shoot dry weight, seedling dry weight, seedling vigour index I and seedling vigour index II as compared to seed soaking at 300 ppm concentration. This experiment showed that seed soaking up to 4 hr was better as compared to 6 and 8 hrs. Seed soaking with nanoparticles specially TiO₂, ZnO, and chitosan proved to enhance germination and seedling growth indices of wheat crop.

Keywords: nanoparticles, seed germination, seed soaking, wheat

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Rafay Ahmed, Condon Lau

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Bone healing is a complex and sequential process involving changes at the molecular level. Raman spectroscopy is a promising technique to study bone mineral and matrix environments simultaneously. In this study, subcritical calvarial defects are used to study bone composition during healing without discomposing the fracture. The model allowed to monitor the natural healing of bone avoiding mechanical harm to the callus. Calvarial defects were created using 1mm burr drill in the parietal bones of Sprague-Dawley rats (n=8) that served in vivo defects. After 7 days, their skulls were harvested after euthanizing. One additional defect per sample was created on the opposite parietal bone using same calvarial defect procedure to serve as control defect. Raman spectroscopy (785 nm) was established to investigate bone parameters of three different skull surfaces; in vivo defects, control defects and normal surface. Principal component analysis (PCA) was utilized for the data analysis and interpretation of Raman spectra and helped in the classification of groups. PCA was able to distinguish in vivo defects from normal surface and control defects. PC1 shows that the major variation at 958 cm⁻¹, which corresponds to ʋ1 phosphate mineral band. PC2 shows the major variation at 1448 cm⁻¹ which is the characteristic band of CH2 deformation and corresponds to collagens. Raman parameters, namely, mineral to matrix ratio and crystallinity was found significantly decreased in the in vivo defects compared to surface and controls. Scanning electron microscope and optical microscope images show the formation of newly generated matrix by means of bony bridges of collagens. Optical profiler shows that surface roughness increased by 30% from controls to in vivo defects after 7 days. These results agree with Raman assessment parameters and confirm the new collagen formation during healing.

Keywords: Raman spectroscopy, principal component analysis, calvarial defects, tissue characterization

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Shivdayal Patel, Suhail Ahmad

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Safety assurance and failure prediction of composite material component of an offshore structure due to low velocity impact is essential for associated risk assessment. It is important to incorporate uncertainties associated with material properties and load due to an impact. Likelihood of this hazard causing a chain of failure events plays an important role in risk assessment. The material properties of composites mostly exhibit a scatter due to their in-homogeneity and anisotropic characteristics, brittleness of the matrix and fiber and manufacturing defects. In fact, the probability of occurrence of such a scenario is due to large uncertainties arising in the system. Probabilistic finite element analysis of composite plates due to low-velocity impact is carried out considering uncertainties of material properties and initial impact velocity. Impact-induced damage of composite plate is a probabilistic phenomenon due to a wide range of uncertainties arising in material and loading behavior. A typical failure crack initiates and propagates further into the interface causing de-lamination between dissimilar plies. Since individual crack in the ply is difficult to track. The progressive damage model is implemented in the FE code by a user-defined material subroutine (VUMAT) to overcome these problems. The limit state function is accordingly established while the stresses in the lamina are such that the limit state function (g(x)>0). The Gaussian process response surface method is presently adopted to determine the probability of failure. A comparative study is also carried out for different combination of impactor masses and velocities. The sensitivity based probabilistic design optimization procedure is investigated to achieve better strength and lighter weight of composite structures. Chain of failure events due to different modes of failure is considered to estimate the consequences of failure scenario. Frequencies of occurrence of specific impact hazards yield the expected risk due to economic loss.

Keywords: composites, damage propagation, low velocity impact, probability of failure, uncertainty modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Rachel A. Brant, Grace E. Kenny, Paige A. Muñiz, Gerardo R. Camilo

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The social sweat bee, Halictus ligatus, has been documented to alter its phenology as a response to changes in temporal dynamics of resources. Furthermore, H. ligatus exhibits polyethism in natural environments as a consequence of the variation in resources. Yet, we do not know if or how H. ligatus responds to these variations in urban environments. As urban environments become much more widespread, and human population is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, it is crucial to distinguish how resources are allocated by bees in cities. We hypothesize that in urban regions, where floral availability varies with human activity, H. ligatus will exhibit polyethism in order to match the extremely localized spatial variability of resources. We predict that in an urban setting, where resources vary both spatially and temporally, the phenology of H. ligatus will alter in response to these fluctuations. This study was conducted in Saint Louis, Missouri, at fifteen sites each varying in size and management type (community garden, urban farm, prairie restoration). Bees were collected by hand netting from 2013-2016. Results suggest that the largest individuals, mostly gynes, occurred in lower income neighborhood community gardens in May and August. We used a model averaging procedure, based on information theoretical methods, to determine a best model for predicting bee size. Our results suggest that month and locality within the city are the best predictors of bee size. Halictus ligatus was observed to comply with the predictions of polyethism from 2013 to 2015. However, in 2016 there was an almost complete absence of the smallest worker castes. This is a significant deviation from what is expected under polyethism. This could be attributed to shifts in planting decisions, shifts in plant-pollinator matches, or local climatic conditions. Further research is needed to determine if this divergence from polyethism is a new strategy for the social sweat bee as climate continues to alter or a response to human dominated landscapes.

Keywords: polyethism, urban environment, phenology, social sweat bee

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Authors: Dheyaa W. Abbood, Rafa H. AL-Suhaili, May S. Saleh

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A model using the artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm technique is developed for obtaining optimum dimensions of the foundation length and protections of small hydraulic structures. The procedure involves optimizing an objective function comprising a weighted summation of the state variables. The decision variables considered in the optimization are the upstream and downstream cutoffs length sand their angles of inclination, the foundation length, and the length of the downstream soil protection. These were obtained for a given maximum difference in head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy.The optimization carried out subjected to constraints that ensure a safe structure against the uplift pressure force and sufficient protection length at the downstream side of the structure to overcome an excessive exit gradient. The Geo-studios oft ware, was used to analyze 1200 different cases. For each case the length of protection and volume of structure required to satisfy the safety factors mentioned previously were estimated. An ANN model was developed and verified using these cases input-output sets as its data base. A MatLAB code was written to perform a genetic algorithm optimization modeling coupled with this ANN model using a formulated optimization model. A sensitivity analysis was done for selecting the cross-over probability, the mutation probability and level ,the number of population, the position of the crossover and the weights distribution for all the terms of the objective function. Results indicate that the most factor that affects the optimum solution is the number of population required. The minimum value that gives stable global optimum solution of this parameters is (30000) while other variables have little effect on the optimum solution.

Keywords: inclined cutoff, optimization, genetic algorithm, artificial neural networks, geo-studio, uplift pressure, exit gradient, factor of safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 312