Search results for: simultaneous linear functional relationship model

Authors: Patrick Ebong Ebewo

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The trend of high unemployment levels globally is a growing concern, which suggests that university students especially those studying the creative industries are most likely to face unemployment upon completion of their studies. Therefore the effort of university in fostering entrepreneurial knowledge is equally important to the development of student’s soft skill. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance of perceived university environment and perceived educational support that influencing University students’ intention in starting their own business in the future. Thus, attempting to answer the question 'How does perceived university environment affect students’ attitude towards entrepreneurship as a career option, perceived entrepreneurial abilities, subjective norm and entrepreneurial intentions?' The study is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour model adapted from previous studies and empirically tested on graduates at the Tshwane University of Technology. A sample of 150 graduates from the Arts and Design graduates took part in the study and data collected were analysed using structural equation modelling (SEM). Our findings seem to suggest the indirect impact of perceived university environment on entrepreneurial intention through perceived environment support and perceived entrepreneurial abilities. Thus, any increase in perceived university environment might influence students to become entrepreneurs. Based on these results, it is recommended that: (a) Tshwane University of Technology and other universities of technology should establish an ‘Entrepreneurship Internship Programme’ as a tool for stimulated work integrated learning. Post-graduation intervention could be implemented by the development of a ‘Graduate Entrepreneurship Program’ which should be embedded in the Bachelor of Technology (B-Tech now Advance Diploma) and Postgraduate courses; (b) Policymakers should consider the development of a coherent national policy framework that addresses entrepreneurship for the Arts/creative industries sector. This would create the enabling environment for the evolution of Higher Education Institutions from merely Teaching, Learning & Research to becoming drivers for creative entrepreneurship.

Keywords: business venture, entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intent, university environment

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Authors: Mohammad Ranjbar, Mohammad Bazyar, Blake Angell, Thomas Lung, Yibeltal Assefa

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Background: Current health insurance programs in Iran suffer from low enrolment and are not sufficient to attain the country to universal health coverage (UHC). We hypothesize that improving the enrollment rate and moving towards a more sustainable UHC can be achieved by improving the benefits package and providing new incentives. The objective of this study is to assess public preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for social health insurance (SHI) in Iran. Methods: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted in 2021, using a self-administered questionnaire on 500 participants to estimate WTP and determine individual preferences for the SHI in Yazd, Iran. Respondents were presented with an eight-choice set and asked to select their preferred one. In each choice set, scenarios were described by eight attributes with varying levels. The conditional logit regression model was used to analyze the participants' preferences. Willingness to pay for each attribute was also calculated. Results: Most included attributes were significant predictors of the choice of a health insurance package. The maximum coverage of hospitalization costs in the private sector, ancillary services such as glasses, canes, etc., as well as coverage for hospitalization costs in the public sector and drug costs, were the most important determining factors for this choice. Coverage of preventive dental care did not significantly influence respondent choices. Estimating WTP showed that individuals are willing to pay more for higher financial protection, particularly against private sector costs; the WTP to increase the coverage of hospitalization costs in the private sector from 50% to 90% is estimated at 362,068 IR, Rials per month. Conclusion: This study identifies the key factors that the population value with regard to health insurance and the tradeoffs they are willing to make between them. Hospitalization, drugs, and ancillary services were the most important determining factors for their choice. The data suggest that additional resources coming into the Iranian health system might best be prioritized to cover hospitalization and drug costs and those associated with ancillary services.

Keywords: social health insurance, preferences, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Mark Johnson

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Developing a coastal oil spill management plan for the Misratah coast is the motivating factor for building a database for coastal and marine systems and energy resources. Wind direction and speed, currents, bathymetry, coastal topography and offshore dynamics influence oil spill deposition in coastal water. Therefore, oceanographic and climatological data can be used to understand oil slick movement and potential oil deposits on shoreline area and the behaviour of oil spill trajectories on the sea surface. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the coastal and marine physical factors under strong wave conditions and various bathymetric and coastal topography gradients in the western coastal area of Libya on the movement of oil slicks. The movement of oil slicks was computed using a GNOME simulation model based on current and wind speed/direction. The results in this paper show that (1) Oil slick might reach the Misratah shoreline area in two days in the summer and winter. Seasons. (2 ) The North coast of Misratah is the potential oil deposit area on the Misratah coast. (3) Tarball pollution was observed along the North coast of Misratah. (4) Two scenarios for the summer and the winter season were run, along the western coast of Libya . (5) The eastern coast is at a lower potential risk due to the influence of wind and current energy in the Gulf of Sidra. (6) The Misratah coastline is more vulnerable to oil spill movement in the summer than in winter seasons. (7) Oil slick takes from 2 to 5 days to reach the saltmarsh in the eastern Misratah coast. (8) Oil slick moves 300 km in 30 days from the spill resource location near the Libyan western border to the Misratah coast.(9) Bathymetric features have a profound effect on oil spill movement. (9)Oil dispersion simulations using GNOME are carried out taking into account high-resolution wind and current data.

Keywords: oil spill movement, coastal and marine physical factors, coast area, Libyan

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Authors: Indunil Jayatilake, Warna Karunasena

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Fiber Reinforced Polymer (FRP) composites enjoy an array of applications ranging from aerospace, marine and military to automobile, recreational and civil industry due to their outstanding properties. A structural glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) composite sandwich panel made from E-glass fiber skin and a modified phenolic core has been manufactured in Australia for civil engineering applications. One of the major mechanisms of damage in FRP composites is skin-core debonding. The presence of debonding is of great concern not only because it severely affects the strength but also it modifies the dynamic characteristics of the structure, including natural frequency and vibration modes. This paper deals with the investigation of the dynamic characteristics of a GFRP beam with single and multiple debonding by finite element based numerical simulations and analyses using the STRAND7 finite element (FE) software package. Three-dimensional computer models have been developed and numerical simulations were done to assess the dynamic behavior. The FE model developed has been validated with published experimental, analytical and numerical results for fully bonded as well as debonded beams. A comparative analysis is carried out based on a comprehensive parametric investigation. It is observed that the reduction in natural frequency is more affected by single debonding than the equally sized multiple debonding regions located symmetrically to the single debonding position. Thus it is revealed that a large single debonding area leads to more damage in terms of natural frequency reduction than isolated small debonding zones of equivalent area, appearing in the GFRP beam. Furthermore, the extents of natural frequency shifts seem mode-dependent and do not seem to have a monotonous trend of increasing with the mode numbers.

Keywords: debonding, dynamic response, finite element modelling, novel FRP beams

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Authors: Jeremy Attard, Jordan François, Serge Lazzarini, Thierry Masson

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Gauge theories are the natural background for describing geometrically fundamental interactions using principal and associated fiber bundles as dynamical entities. The central notion of these theories is their local gauge symmetry implemented by the local action of a Lie group H. There exist several methods used to reduce the symmetry of a gauge theory, like gauge fixing, bundle reduction theorem or spontaneous symmetry breaking mechanism (SSBM). This paper is a presentation of another method of gauge symmetry reduction, distinct from those three. Given a symmetry group H acting on a fiber bundle and its naturally associated fields (Ehresmann (or Cartan) connection, curvature, matter fields, etc.) there sometimes exists a way to erase (in whole or in part) the H-action by just reconfiguring these fields, i.e. by making a mere change of field variables in order to get new (‘composite‘) fields on which H (in whole or in part) does not act anymore. Two examples: the re-interpretation of the BEHGHK (Higgs) mechanism, on the one hand, and the top-down construction of Tractor and Penrose's Twistor spaces and connections in the framework of conformal Cartan geometry, one the other, will be discussed. They have, of course, nothing to do with each other but the dressing field method can be applied on both to get a new insight. In the first example, it turns out, indeed, that generation of masses in the Standard Model can be separated from the symmetry breaking, the latter being a mere change of field variables, i.e. a dressing. This offers an interpretation in opposition with the one usually found in textbooks. In the second case, the dressing field method applied to the conformal Cartan geometry offer a way of understanding the deep geometric nature of the so-called Tractors and Twistors. The dressing field method, distinct from a gauge transformation (even if it can have apparently the same form), is a systematic way of finding and erasing artificial symmetries of a theory, by a mere change of field variables which redistributes the degrees of freedom of the theories.

Keywords: BEHGHK (Higgs) mechanism, conformal gravity, gauge theory, spontaneous symmetry breaking, symmetry reduction, twistors and tractors

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Authors: William Ceurvels, Dong-Di Zhang

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The true nature of the mechanism by which the pharmaceuticals of the Shang-Han Lun act has been a topic of debate since Wuji Cheng published the first commentary during the Northern Song. Subsequent commentaries employed a number of methodologies in their analysis of pharmaceutical mechanisms, but no commentator was able to garner universal acceptance. During the Qing Dynasty, the proliferation and development of Neo-Confucian scholarship produced a new generation of scholars possessed of rigorous and inventive research methods, one of whom was the famed materia medica scholar, Run-an Zou. Run-an Zou and his successor Zhou Yan advocated analyzing the mechanism of Treatise pharmaceuticals based upon the understanding of those pharmaceuticals during the time period in which the Treatise was written and thereby focused on the Han Dynasty materia medica tract Shen-nong Ben-cao Jing (The Divine Husbandman’s Herbal Foundation Canon). Zou Run-an’s commentary, Ben-jing Shu-zheng won nearly universal praise among materia medica scholars for its scholastic rigor and innovative research methods. However, because Ben-jing Shu-zheng only focuses on individual herbs, as opposed to formulas, its value in analyzing the Shang-Han Lun has limitations. The purpose of this study is to combine Zou Run-an’s single-pharmaceutical commentaries to generate theoretical full formula analyses to gain a fuller picture of Zou’s understanding of the healing mechanism of Shang-Han Lun formulas. Commentaries were gathered from Ben-jing Shu-zheng and Zhou Yan’s Ben-cao Si-bian Lun and combined to produce theoretical full formula model mechanisms of Treatise formulas. Through this study, a new picture of the mechanistic basis of Shang-han formulas emerges, which is based on qi-xue changes as opposed to organ or meridian theory. The author hopes that this modest research study will be of service to scholars of the Shang-han and clinical doctors alike in their pursuit of the true pharmacomechanisms of this great Han dynasty tome.

Keywords: Materia medica, Shang-han Lun, Shen-nong Ben-cao Jing, neo-Confucian scholarship

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Authors: Asmamaw Yehun, Tsegaye Gogie, Martin Vermeer, Addisu Hunegnaw

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The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a space-based radio positioning system, which is capable of providing continuous position, velocity, and time information to users anywhere on or near the surface of the Earth. The main objective of this work was to estimate the integrated precipitable water vapour (IPWV) using ground GPS and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Radio Occultation (RO) to study spatial-temporal variability. For LEO-GPS RO, we used Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) datasets. We estimated the daily and monthly mean of IPWV using six selected ground-based GPS stations over a period of range from 2012 to 2016 (i.e. five-years period). The main perspective for selecting the range period from 2012 to 2016 is that, continuous data were available during these periods at all Ethiopian GPS stations. We studied temporal, seasonal, diurnal, and vertical variations of precipitable water vapour using GPS observables extracted from the precise geodetic GAMIT-GLOBK software package. Finally, we determined the cross-correlation of our GPS-derived IPWV values with those of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Interim reanalysis and of the second generation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) model ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R) for validation and static comparison. There are higher values of the IPWV range from 30 to 37.5 millimetres (mm) in Gambela and Southern Regions of Ethiopia. Some parts of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions had low IPWV ranges from 8.62 to 15.27 mm. The correlation coefficient between GPS-derived IPWV with ECMWF and GEFS/R exceeds 90%. We conclude that there are highly temporal, seasonal, diurnal, and vertical variations of precipitable water vapour in the study area.

Keywords: GNSS, radio occultation, atmosphere, precipitable water vapour

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Authors: Kaushik Sathupadi, Sandesh Achar

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Pervasive computing is a growing research field that aims to acknowledge human physical life routines (HPLR) based on body-worn sensors such as MEMS sensors-based technologies. The use of these technologies for human activity recognition is progressively increasing. On the other hand, personalizing human life routines using numerous machine-learning techniques has always been an intriguing topic. In contrast, various methods have demonstrated the ability to recognize basic movement patterns. However, it still needs to be improved to anticipate the dynamics of human living patterns. This study introduces state-of-the-art techniques for recognizing static and dy-namic patterns and forecasting those challenging activities from multi-fused sensors. Further-more, numerous MEMS signals are extracted from one self-annotated IM-WSHA dataset and two benchmarked datasets. First, we acquired raw data is filtered with z-normalization and denoiser methods. Then, we adopted statistical, local binary pattern, auto-regressive model, and intrinsic time scale decomposition major features for feature extraction from different domains. Next, the acquired features are optimized using maximum relevance and minimum redundancy (mRMR). Finally, the artificial neural network is applied to analyze the whole system's performance. As a result, we attained a 90.27% recognition rate for the self-annotated dataset, while the HARTH and KU-HAR achieved 83% on nine living activities and 90.94% on 18 static and dynamic routines. Thus, the proposed HPLR system outperformed other state-of-the-art systems when evaluated with other methods in the literature.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, gait analysis, local binary pattern (LBP), statistical features, micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), maximum relevance and minimum re-dundancy (MRMR)

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Authors: C. Mayuren, C. K. Paul Wang, K. Purushotham, C. Dinesh Kumar

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Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is one of the most common non-communicable diseases globally. Although significant advances have led to better understanding of the condition and the development of effective therapies and preventive strategies, the pathway to cure remains elusive and DM prevails as a serious medical challenge in the 21st century. Oxidative stress has been suggested to contribute to the progression and pathophysiological conditions of diabetes. Madecassoside (MA) a major pentacyclic triterpenoid, has been demonstrated to possess various biological activities. However, no attempt has been made to study the antioxidant activity in diabetic rats. Therefore, the present study is aimed to evaluate the antioxidant effect of MA on streptozotocin-nicotinamide induced type-2 diabetes in Sprague-Dawley rats. The study protocol was approved by the institutional ethical committee prior to the conduct of research. Adult male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 250-300 g were used in the study. The animals were rendered diabetic with a single intraperitoneal dose of streptozotocin (65 mg/kg) and nicotinamide (110 mg/kg). The diabetic animals after a stabilisation period of 14 days received various treatments (Madecassoside 50 mg/kg; Glimepiride 2.5 mg/kg) suspended in 0.5% carboxymethyl cellulose orally, for a period of 28 days. The animals fasted overnight after the last treatment were sacrificed and the pancreas, liver and kidneys were isolated. The weighted quantity of the samples of various treatments were homogenised in ice-cold condition and were subjected to lipid peroxidation, catalase and superoxide dismutase assay. The data’s obtained were subjected to statistical analysis. Diabetic rats showed significant increase in lipid peroxidation and decrease in enzymatic antioxidant levels. All the treated groups had significantly higher SOD, CAT and reduced LPO activity in the pancreas, liver and kidney. Results suggest madecassoside to have potential antioxidant effect against the diabetic model. However further investigations are necessary to study the mechanism at the cellular level.

Keywords: antioxidant, diabetes, madecassoside, nicotinamide, streptozotocin

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Authors: Vishal Pareek, Shubham Gupta, Sushil Chandra Jain

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With increasing high-speed computation demand the power consumption, heat dissipation and chip size issues are posing challenges for logic design with conventional technologies. Recovery of bit loss and bit errors is other issues that require reversibility and fault tolerance in the computation. The reversible computing is emerging as an alternative to conventional technologies to overcome the above problems and helpful in a diverse area such as low-power design, nanotechnology, quantum computing. Bit loss issue can be solved through unique input-output mapping which require reversibility and bit error issue require the capability of fault tolerance in design. In order to incorporate reversibility a number of combinational reversible logic based circuits have been developed. However, very few sequential reversible circuits have been reported in the literature. To make the circuit fault tolerant, a number of fault model and test approaches have been proposed for reversible logic. In this paper, we have attempted to incorporate fault tolerance in sequential reversible building blocks such as D flip-flop, T flip-flop, JK flip-flop, R-S flip-flop, Master-Slave D flip-flop, and double edge triggered D flip-flop by making them parity preserving. The importance of this proposed work lies in the fact that it provides the design of reversible sequential circuits completely testable for any stuck-at fault and single bit fault. In our opinion our design of reversible building blocks is superior to existing designs in term of quantum cost, hardware complexity, constant input, garbage output, number of gates and design of online testable D flip-flop have been proposed for the first time. We hope our work can be extended for building complex reversible sequential circuits.

Keywords: parity preserving gate, quantum computing, fault tolerance, flip-flop, sequential reversible logic

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Authors: Ejaz Ashraf, Raheel Babar, Muhammad Yaseen, Hafiz Khurram Shurjeel, Nosheen Fatima

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Main purpose of this study was to assess adoption level of farmers for quinoa cultivation after they had been taught through training and visit extension approach. At this time of the 21^st century, population structure, climate change, food requirements and eating habits of people are changing rapidly. In this scenario, farmers must play their key role in sustainable crop development and production through adoption of new crops that may also be helpful to overcome the issue of food insecurity as well as reducing poverty in rural areas. Its cultivation in Pakistan is at the early stages and there is a need to raise awareness among farmers to grow quinoa crops. In the middle of the 2015, a training and visit extension approach was used to raise awareness and convince farmers to grow quinoa in the area. During training and visit extension program, 80 farmers were randomly selected for the training of quinoa cultivation. Later on, these farmers trained 60 more farmers living into their neighborhood. After six months, a survey was conducted with all 140 farmers to assess the impact of the training and visit program on adoption level of respondents for the quinoa crop. The survey instrument was developed with the help of literature review and other experts of the crop. Validity and reliability of the instrument were checked before complete data collection. The data were analyzed by using SPSS. Multiple regression analysis was used for interpretation of the results from the survey, which indicated that factors like information/ training, change in agronomic and plant protection practices play a key role in the adoption of quinoa cultivation by respondents. In addition, the model explains more than 50% of variation in the adoption level of respondents. It is concluded that farmers need timely information for improved knowledge of agronomic and plant protection practices to adopt cultivation of the quinoa crop in the area.

Keywords: farmers, quinoa, adoption, contact, training and visit

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Authors: Antonios Paraskevas, Michael Madas

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For a university to maintain its international competitiveness in education, it is essential to recruit qualitative academic staff as it constitutes its most valuable asset. This selection demonstrates a significant role in achieving strategic objectives, particularly by emphasizing a firm commitment to the exceptional student experience and innovative teaching and learning practices of high quality. In this vein, the appropriate selection of academic staff establishes a very important factor of competitiveness, efficiency and reputation of an academic institute. Within this framework, our work demonstrates a comprehensive methodological concept that emphasizes the multi-criteria nature of the problem and how decision-makers could utilize our approach in order to proceed to the appropriate judgment. The conceptual framework introduced in this paper is built upon a hybrid neutrosophic method based on the Neutrosophic Analytical Hierarchy Process (N-AHP), which uses the theory of neutrosophy sets and is considered suitable in terms of a significant degree of ambiguity and indeterminacy observed in the decision-making process. To this end, our framework extends the N-AHP by incorporating the Neutrosophic Delphi Method (N-DM). By applying the N-DM, we can take into consideration the importance of each decision-maker and their preferences per evaluation criterion. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed model is the first which applies the Neutrosophic Delphi Method in the selection of academic staff. As a case study, it was decided to use our method for a real problem of academic personnel selection, having as the main goal to enhance the algorithm proposed in previous scholars’ work, and thus taking care of the inherent ineffectiveness which becomes apparent in traditional multi-criteria decision-making methods when dealing with situations alike. As a further result, we prove that our method demonstrates greater applicability and reliability when compared to other decision models.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision making methods, analytical hierarchy process, delphi method, personnel recruitment, neutrosophic set theory

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Authors: Hasan Muslemani, Xi Liang, Kathi Kaesehage, Francisco Ascui, Jeffrey Wilson

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The creation of a market for lower-carbon steel products, here called ‘green steel’, has been identified as an important means to support the introduction of breakthrough emission reduction technologies into the steel sector. However, the definition of what ‘green’ entails in the context of steel production, the implications on the competitiveness of green steel products in local and international markets, and the necessary market mechanisms to support their successful market penetration remain poorly explored. This paper addresses this gap by holding semi-structured interviews with international sustainability experts and commercial managers from leading steel trade associations, research institutes and steelmakers. Our findings show that there is an urgent need to establish a set of standards to define what ‘greenness’ means in the steelmaking context; standards that avoid market disruptions, unintended consequences, and opportunities for greenwashing. We also highlight that the introduction of green steel products will have implications on product competitiveness on three different levels: 1) between primary and secondary steelmaking routes, 2) with traditional, lesser green steel, and 3) with other substitutable materials (e.g. cement and plastics). This paper emphasises the need for steelmakers to adopt a transitional approach in deploying different low-carbon technologies, based on their stage of technological maturity, applicability in certain country contexts, capacity to reduce emissions over time, and the ability of the investment community to support their deployment. We further identify market mechanisms to support green steel production, including carbon border adjustments and public procurement, highlighting a need for implementing a combination of complementary policies to ensure the products’ roll-out. The study further shows that the auto industry is a likely candidate for green steel consumption, where a market would be supported by price premiums paid by willing consumers, such as those of high-end luxury vehicles.

Keywords: green steel, decarbonisation, business model innovation, market analysis

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Authors: Sadiah Baharom, Che Nidzam Che Ahmad, Saipol Barin Ramli, Asmayati Yahaya, Sopia Md Yassin

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The early childhood care and education (ECCE) in Malaysia aspire to develop children who are intellectually, emotionally, physically and spiritually balanced. This aspiration can only materialise if the early childhood program developed comprehensive and is of high quality comparable to international standards. As such, there is a pressing need to assess the quality of the program in an all-encompassing manner. The overall research project aims at developing a comprehensive and integrated model of high-quality Malaysian ECCE. One of the major objectives of this project is to assess and evaluate the scope and quality of the existing ECCE programs in Malaysia. To this end, a specific aspect of this objective is to develop and validate an instrument to assess and evaluate the ECCE curriculum of the country. Thus this paper describes the development and validation of an instrument to explore the quality of early childhood care and education curriculum currently implemented in the country’s ECCE centres. The generation of the constructs and items were based on a set of criteria mapped against existing ECCE practice, document analyses, expert interviews and panel discussions. The items went through expert validation and were field tested on 597 ECCE teachers. The data obtained went through an exploratory factor analysis to validate the constructs of the instrument followed by reliability studies on internal consistency based on the Cronbach Alpha values. The final set of items for the ECCE curriculum instrument, earmarked for the main study, consists of four constructs namely philosophy and core values, curriculum content, curriculum review and unique features. Each construct consists of between 21 to 3 items with a total of 36 items in all. The reliability coefficients for each construct range from 0.65 to 0.961. These values are within the acceptable limits for a reliable instrument to be used in the main study.

Keywords: early childhood and care education, instrument development, reliability studies, validity studies

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Authors: Abdulmajeed Almansour

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Learning a foreign language with the assistant of technological tools has become an interest of learners and educators. Increased use of smartphones among undergraduate students has made them popular for not only social communication but also for entertainment and educational purposes. Smartphones have provided remarkable advantages in language learning process. Learning vocabulary is an important part of learning a language. The use of smartphone applications for English vocabulary learning provides an opportunity for learners to improve vocabulary knowledge beyond the classroom wall anytime anywhere. Recently, various smartphone applications were created specifically for vocabulary learning. This paper aims to explore the use of smartphone application Memrise designed for vocabulary learning to enhance academic vocabulary among undergraduate students. It examines whether the use of a Memrise smartphone application designed course enhances the academic vocabulary learning among ESL learners. The research paradigm used in this paper followed a mixed research model combining quantitative and qualitative research. The study included two hundred undergraduate students randomly assigned to the experimental and controlled group during the first academic year at the Faculty of English Language, Imam University. The research instruments included an attitudinal questionnaire and an English vocabulary pre-test administered to students at the beginning of the semester whereas post-test and semi-structured interviews administered at the end of the semester. The findings of the attitudinal questionnaire revealed a positive attitude towards using smartphones in learning vocabulary. The post-test scores showed a significant difference in the experimental group performance. The results from the semi-structure interviews showed that there were positive attitudes towards Memrise smartphone application. The students found the application enjoyable, convenient and efficient learning tool. From the study, the use of the Memrise application is seen to have long-term and motivational benefits to students. For this reason, there is a need for further research to identify the long-term optimal effects of learning a language using smartphone applications.

Keywords: second language vocabulary learning, academic vocabulary, mobile learning technologies, smartphone applications

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Authors: R. Bužgová, R. Kozáková, M. Škutová, M. Bar, P. Ressner, P. Bártová

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Introduction: Currently, there has been an increasing concern about the provision of palliative care in non-oncological patients in both professional literature and clinical practice. However, there is not much scientific information on how to provide neurological and palliative care together. The main objective of the project is to create and to verify a concept of neuro-palliative and rehabilitative care for patients with selected neurological diseases in an advanced stage of the disease and also to evaluate bio-psychosocial and spiritual needs of these patients and their caregivers related to the quality of life using created standardized tools. Methodology: Triangulation of research methods (qualitative and quantitative) will be used. A concept of care and assessment tools will be developed by analyzing interviews and focus groups. Qualitative data will be analyzed using grounded theory. The concept of care will be tested in the context of the intervention study. Using quantitative analysis, we will assess the effect of an intervention provided on the saturation of needs, quality of life, and quality of care. A research sample will be made up of the patients with selected neurological diseases (Parkinson´s syndrome, motor neuron disease, multiple sclerosis, Huntington’s disease), together with patients´ family members. Based on the results, educational materials and a certified course for health care professionals will be created. Findings: Based on qualitative data analysis, we will propose the concept of integrated care model combining neurological, rehabilitative and specialist palliative care for patients with selected neurological diseases in different settings of care and services. Patients´ needs related to quality of life will be described by newly created and validated measuring tools before the start of intervention (application of neuro-palliative and palliative approach) and then in the time interval. Conclusion: Based on the results, educational materials and a certified course for doctors and health care professionals will be created.

Keywords: multidisciplinary approach, neuropalliative care, research, quality of life

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Authors: King Kumire

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The Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Treaty have been the backbone of space law. However, scientists, engineers, and policymakers have been silent about how human settlement on celestial bodies would change the legal dimensions of space law. Indeed, these legal space regimes should have a prescription on how galactic courts should deal with the aspect of space property ownership. On this planet earth, one can vindicate his own assets. In extraterrestrial environments, this is not the case because space law is fatigued by terrestrial body sovereignty, which must be upheld. However, the recent commercialization of microgravity environments requires property ownership laws to be enacted. Space activities have mutated to the extent that it is almost possible to build communities in space. The discussions on the moon village concept will be mentioned as well to give clarity on the subject to the audience. It should be stated that launchers can now explore the cosmos with space tourists. The world is also busy doing feasibility studies on how to implement space mining projects. These activities indisputably show that the research is important because it will not only expose how the cosmic world is constrained by existing legal frameworks, but it will provide a remedy for how the inevitable dilemma of property rights can be resolved through the formulation of multilateral and all-inclusive policies. The discussion will model various aspects of terrestrial property rights and the associated remedies against what can be applicable and customized for use in extraterrestrial environments. Transfer of ownership in space is also another area of interest as the researcher shall try to distinguish between envisaged personal and real rights in the new frontier vis-a-vis mainland transfer transactions. The writer imagines the extent to which the concepts of servitudes, accession, prescription and commixes, and other property templates can act as a starting point when cosmic probers move forward with the revision of orbital law. The article seeks to reconcile these ownership constraints by working towards the development of a living space common law which is elastic and embroidered by sustainable recommendations. A balance between transplanting terrestrial laws to the galactic arena and the need to enact new ones which will complement the existing space treaties will be meticulously pivoted.

Keywords: rights, commercialisation, ownership, sovereignty

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Authors: Chau So Ling

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I.INTRODUCTION: Educators have always been interested in exploring factors that contribute to students’ academic success. It is beyond question that language, as a medium of instruction, will affect student learning. This paper tries to investigate whether language is a crucial factor in determining students’ achievement in their studies. II. BACKGROUND AND SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY: The issue of using English as a medium of instruction in Hong Kong is a special topic because Hong Kong is a post-colonial and international city which a British colony. In such a specific language environment, researchers in the education field have always been interested in investigating students’ language proficiency and its relation to academic achievement and other related educational indicators such as motivation to learn, self-esteem, learning effectiveness, self-efficacy, etc. Along this line of thought, this study specifically focused on business education. III. METHODOLOGY: The methodology in this study involved two sequential stages, namely, a focus group interview and a data analysis. The whole study was directed towards both qualitative and quantitative aspects. The subjects of the study were divided into two groups. For the first group participating in the interview, a total of ten high school students were invited. They studied Business Studies, and their English standard was varied. The theme of the discussion was “Does English affect your learning and examination results of Business Studies?” The students were facilitated to discuss the extent to which English standard affected their learning of Business subjects and requested to rate the correlation between English and performance of Business Studies on a five-point scale. The second stage of the study involved another group of students. They were high school graduates who had taken the public examination for entering universities. A database containing their public examination results for different subjects has been obtained for the purpose of statistical analysis. Hypotheses were tested and evidence was obtained from the focus group interview to triangulate the findings. V. MAJOR FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION: By sharing of personal experience, the discussion of focus group interviews indicated that higher English standards could help the students achieve better learning and examination performance. In order to end the interview, the students were asked to indicate the correlation between English proficiency and performance of Business Studies on a five-point scale. With point one meant least correlated, ninety percent of the students gave point four for the correlation. The preliminary results illustrated that English plays an important role in students’ learning of Business Studies, or at least this was what the students perceived, which set the hypotheses for the study. After conducting the focus group interview, further evidence had to be gathered to support the hypotheses. The data analysis part tried to find out the relationship by correlating the students’ public examination results of Business Studies and levels of English standard. The results indicated a positive correlation between their English standard and Business Studies examination performance. In order to highlight the importance of the English language to the study of Business Studies, the correlation between the public examination results of other non-business subjects was also tested. Statistical results showed that language does play a role in affecting students’ performance in studying Business subjects than the other subjects. The explanation includes the dynamic subject nature, examination format and study requirements, the specialist language used, etc. Unlike Science and Geography, students in their learning process might find it more difficult to relate business concepts or terminologies to their own experience, and there are not many obvious physical or practical activities or visual aids to serve as evidence or experiments. It is well-researched in Hong Kong that English proficiency is a determinant of academic success. Other research studies verified such a notion. For example, research revealed that the more enriched the language experience, the better the cognitive performance in conceptual tasks. The ability to perform this kind of task is particularly important to students taking Business subjects. Another research was carried out in the UK, which was geared towards identifying and analyzing the reasons for underachievement across a cohort of GCSE students taking Business Studies. Results showed that weak language ability was the main barrier to raising students’ performance levels. It seemed that the interview result was successfully triangulated with data findings. Although education failure cannot be restricted to linguistic failure and language is just one of the variables to play in determining academic achievement, it is generally accepted that language does affect students’ academic performance. It is just a matter of extent. This paper provides recommendations for business educators on students’ language training and sheds light on more research possibilities in this area.

Keywords: academic performance, language, learning, medium of instruction

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Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Arifuzzaman Nayeem, Tafannum Torsha, Tanvir Manzur, Shaurav Alam

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Performance evaluation of reinforced concrete (RC) beams subjected to accidental fire is significant for post-fire capacity measurement. Mechanical properties of any RC beam degrade due to heating since the strength and modulus of concrete and reinforcement suffer considerable reduction under elevated temperatures. Moreover, fire-induced thermal dilation and shrinkage cause internal stresses within the concrete and eventually result in cracking, spalling, and loss of stiffness, which ultimately leads to lower service life. However, conducting full-scale comprehensive experimental investigation for RC beams exposed to fire is difficult and cost-intensive, where the finite element (FE) based numerical study can provide an economical alternative for evaluating the post-fire capacity of RC beams. In this study, an attempt has been made to study the fire behavior of RC beams using FE software package ABAQUS under different durations of fire. The damaged plasticity model of concrete in ABAQUS was used to simulate behavior RC beams. The effect of temperature on strength and modulus of concrete and steel was simulated following relevant Eurocodes. Initially, the result of FE models was validated using several experimental results from available scholarly articles. It was found that the response of the developed FE models matched quite well with the experimental outcome for beams without heat. The FE analysis of beams subjected to fire showed some deviation from the experimental results, particularly in terms of stiffness degradation. However, the ultimate strength and deflection of FE models were similar to that of experimental values. The developed FE models, thus, exhibited the good potential to predict the fire behavior of RC beams. Once validated, FE models were then used to analyze several RC beams having different strengths (ranged between 20 MPa and 50 MPa) exposed to the standard fire curve (ASTM E119) for different durations. The post-fire performance of RC beams was investigated in terms of load-deflection behavior, flexural strength, and deflection characteristics.

Keywords: fire durations, flexural strength, post fire capacity, reinforced concrete beam, standard fire

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Authors: Kehinde Agbele, Longe Olumide, Daniel Ekong, Dele Seluwa, Akintoye Onamade

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One major problem of most existing information retrieval systems (IRS) is that they provide even access and retrieval results to individual users specially based on the query terms user issued to the system. When using IRS, users often present search queries made of ad-hoc keywords. It is then up to IRS to obtain a precise representation of user’s information need, and the context of the information. In effect, the volume and range of the Internet documents is growing exponentially and consequently causes difficulties for a user to obtain information that precisely matches the user interest. Diverse combination techniques are used to achieve the specific goal. This is due, firstly, to the fact that users often do not present queries to IRS that optimally represent the information they want, and secondly, the measure of a document's relevance is highly subjective between diverse users. In this paper, we address the problem by investigating the optimization of IRS to individual information needs in order of relevance. The paper addressed the development of algorithms that optimize the ranking of documents retrieved from IRS. This paper addresses this problem with a two-fold approach in order to retrieve domain-specific documents. Firstly, the design of context of information. The context of a query determines retrieved information relevance using personalization and context-awareness. Thus, executing the same query in diverse contexts often leads to diverse result rankings based on the user preferences. Secondly, the relevant context aspects should be incorporated in a way that supports the knowledge domain representing users’ interests. In this paper, the use of evolutionary algorithms is incorporated to improve the effectiveness of IRS. A context-based information retrieval system that learns individual needs from user-provided relevance feedback is developed whose retrieval effectiveness is evaluated using precision and recall metrics. The results demonstrate how to use attributes from user interaction behavior to improve the IR effectiveness.

Keywords: context, document relevance, information retrieval, personalization, user search behaviors

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Authors: B. M. Pardeshi

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Introduction: Minerals and trace elements are chemical elements required by our bodies for numerous biological and physiological processes that are necessary for the maintenance of health. Medicinal plants are highly beneficial for the maintenance of good health and prevention of diseases. They are known as potential sources of minerals and vitamins. 30 to 40% of today’s conventional drugs used in the medicinal and curative properties of various plants are employed in herbal supplement botanicals, nutraceuticals and drug. Aim: The authors explored the mineral element content of some herbs, because mineral elements may have significant role in the development and treatment of gastrointestinal diseases, and a close connection between the presence or absence of mineral elements and inflammatory mediators was noted. Methods: Present study deals with the elemental analysis of medicinal plants by Instrumental Neutron activation Analysis and Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy. Medicinal herbals prescribed for skin diseases were purchased from markets and were analyzed by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) using 252Cf Californium spontaneous fission neutron source (flux * 109 n s-1) and the induced activities were counted by γ-ray spectrometry and Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS) techniques (Perkin Elmer 3100 Model) available at Department of Chemistry University of Pune, INDIA, was used for the measurement of major, minor and trace elements. Results: 15 elements viz. Al, K, Cl, Na, Mn by INAA and Cu, Co, Pb, Ni, Cr, Ca, Fe, Zn, Hg and Cd by AAS were analyzed from different medicinal plants from India. A critical examination of the data shows that the elements Ca , K, Cl, Al, and Fe are found to be present at major levels in most of the samples while the other elements Na, Mn, Cu, Co, Pb, Ni, Cr, Ca, Zn, Hg and Cd are present in minor or trace levels. Conclusion: The beneficial therapeutic effect of the studied herbs may be related to their mineral element content. The elemental concentration in different medicinal plants is discussed.

Keywords: instrumental neutron activation analysis, atomic absorption spectroscopy, medicinal plants, trace elemental analysis, mineral contents

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Authors: Junaid Jibran Jawed, Prasanta Saini, Subrata Majumdar

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Background: Leishmania donovani infection causes severe host immune-suppression through the modulation of pathogen recognition receptors. Apart from TLRs (Toll Like Receptor), recent studies focus on the important contribution of NLR (NOD-Like Receptor) family member NOD1 and NOD2 as these receptors are capable of triggering host innate immunity. The aim of this study was to decipher the role of NOD1/NOD2 receptors during experimental visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and the important link between host failure and parasite evasion strategy. Method: The status of NOD1 and NOD2 receptors were analysed in uninfected and infected cells through western blotting and RT-PCR. The active contributions of these receptors in reducing parasite burden were confirmed by siRNA mediated silencing, and over-expression studies and the parasite numbers were calculated through microscopic examination of the Giemsa-stained slides. In-vivo studies were done by using non-toxic dose of Mw (Mycobacterium indicus pranii), Ara-LAM(Arabinoasylated lipoarabinomannan) along with MDP (Muramyl dipeptide) administration. Result: Leishmania donovani infection of the macrophages reduced the expression of NOD2 receptors whereas NOD1 remain unaffected. MDP, a NOD2-ligand, treatment during over-expression of NOD2, reduced the parasite burden effectively which was associated with increased pro-inflammatory cytokine generation and NO production. In experimental mouse model, Ara-LAM treatment increased the expression of NOD2 and in combination with MDP it showed active therapeutic potential against VL and found to be more effective than Mw which was already reported to be involved in NOD2 modulation. Conclusion: This work explores the essential contribution of NOD2 during experimental VL and mechanistic understanding of Ara-LAM + MDP combination therapy to work against this disease and highlighted NOD2 as an essential therapeutic target.

Keywords: Ara-LAM (Arabinoacylated Lipoarabinomannan), NOD2 (nucleotide binding oligomerization receptor 2), MDP (muramyl di peptide), visceral Leishmaniasis

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Authors: Abhishek N. Srivastava, Rahul Singh, Sumedha Chakma

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The rapid urbanization in the developing countries is generating an enormous amount of waste leading to the creation of unregulated landfill sites at various places at its disposal. The liquid waste, known as leachate, produced from these landfills sites is severely affecting the surrounding water quality. The water quality in the proximity areas of the landfill is found affected by various physico-chemical parameters of leachate such as pH, alkalinity, total hardness, conductivity, chloride, total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), sulphate, nitrate, phosphate, fluoride, sodium and potassium, biological parameters such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), Faecal coliform, and heavy metals such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni). However, all these parameters are distributive in leachate that produced according to the nature of waste being dumped at various landfill sites, therefore, it becomes very difficult to predict the main responsible parameter of leachate for water quality contamination. The present study is endeavour the comparative analysis of the physical, chemical and biological parameters of various landfills in India viz. Okhla landfill, Ghazipur landfill, Bhalswa ladfill in NCR Delhi, Deonar landfill in Mumbai, Dhapa landfill in Kolkata and Kodungayaiyur landfill, Perungudi landfill in Chennai. The statistical analysis of the parameters was carried out using the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and LandSim 2.5 model to simulate the long term effect of various parameters on different time scale. Further, the uncertainties characterization of various input parameters has also been analysed using fuzzy alpha cut (FAC) technique to check the sensitivity of various water quality parameters at the proximity of numerous landfill sites. Finally, the study would help to suggest the best method for the prevention of pollution migration from the landfill sites on priority basis.

Keywords: landfill leachate, water quality, LandSim, fuzzy alpha cut

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Authors: Yara Saleh, Sebastien Antherieu, Romain Dusautoir, Jules Sotty, Laurent Alleman, Ludivine Canivet, Esperanza Perdrix, Pierre Dubot, Anne Platel, Fabrice Nesslany, Guillaume Garcon, Jean-Marc Lo-Guidice

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Air pollution is one of the leading causes of premature death worldwide. Among air pollutants, particulate matter (PM) is a major health risk factor, through the induction of cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancers. They are composed of coarse, fine and ultrafine particles (PM10, PM2.5, and PM0.1 respectively). Ultrafine particles are emerging unregulated pollutants that might have greater toxicity than larger particles, since they are more abundant and consequently have higher surface area per unit of mass. Our project aims to develop a relevant in vivo model of sub-chronic exposure to atmospheric particles in order to elucidate the specific respiratory impact of ultrafine particles compared to fine particulate matter. Quasi-ultrafine (PM0.18) and fine (PM2.5) particles have been collected in the urban industrial zone of Dunkirk in north France during a 7-month campaign, and submitted to physico-chemical characterization. BALB/c mice were then exposed intranasally to 10µg of PM0.18 or PM2.5 3 times a week. After 1 or 3-month exposure, broncho alveolar lavages (BAL) were performed and lung tissues were harvested for histological and transcriptomic analyses. The physico-chemical study of the collected particles shows that there is no major difference in elemental and surface chemical composition between PM0.18 and PM2.5. Furthermore, the results of the cytological analyses carried out show that both types of particulate fractions can be internalized in lung cells. However, the cell count in BAL and preliminary transcriptomic data suggest that PM0.18 could be more reactive and induce a stronger lung inflammation in exposed mice than PM2.5. Complementary studies are in progress to confirm these first data and to identify the metabolic pathways more specifically associated with the toxicity of ultrafine particles.

Keywords: environmental pollution, lung affect, mice, ultrafine particles

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Authors: Laïd Boukraâ

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Complementary and Alternative Medicine is an inclusive term that describes treatments, therapies, and modalities that are not accepted as components of mainstream education or practice, but that are performed on patients by some practitioners. While these treatments and therapies often form part of post-graduate education, study and writing, they are generally viewed as alternatives or complementary to more universally accepted treatments. Ancient civilizations used bee products and medicinal plants, but modern civilization and ‘education’ have seriously lessened our natural instinctive ability and capability. Despite the fact that the modern Western establishment appears to like to relegate apitherapy and aromatherapy to the status of 'folklore' or 'old wives' tales', they contain a vast spread of pharmacologically-active ingredients and each one has its own unique combination and properties. They are classified in modern herbal medicine according to their spheres of action. Bee products and medicinal plants are well-known natural product for their healing properties and their increasing popularity recently as they are widely used in wound healing. Honey not only has antibacterial properties which can help as an antibacterial agent but also has chemical properties which may further help in the wound healing process. A formulation with honey as its main component was produced into a honey gel. This new formulation has enhanced texture and is more user friendly for usage as well. This new formulation would be better than other formulas as it is hundred percent consisting of natural products and has been made into a better formulation. In vitro assay, animal model study and clinical trials have shown the effectiveness of LEADERMAX for the treatment of diabetic foot, burns, leg ulcer and bed sores. This one hundred percent natural product could be the best alternative to conventional products for wound and burn management. The advantages of the formulation are: 100% natural, affordable, easy to use, strong power of absorption, dry surface on the wound making a film, will not stick to the wound bed; helps relieve wound pain, inflammation, edema and bruising while improving comfort.

Keywords: bed sore bee products, burns, diabetic foot, medicinal plants, leg ulcer, wounds

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Authors: Alexander Hedlund, Anna-Karin Stengard, Olof Björkqvist

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A step towards reducing greenhouse gases and energy consumption is to collaborate with the energy system between several industries. This work is based on a case study on integration of pulp and paper mills with a district heating system in Sundsvall, Sweden. Present research shows that it is possible to make a significant reduction in the electricity demand in the mechanical pulping process. However, the profitability of the efficiency measures could be an issue, as the excess steam recovered from the refiners decreases with the electricity consumption. A consequence will be that the fuel demand for steam production will increase. If the fuel price is similar to the electricity price it would reduce the profit of such a project. If the paper mill can be integrated with a district heating system, it is possible to upgrade excess heat from a nearby kraft pulp mill to process steam via the district heating system in order to avoid the additional fuel need. The concept is investigated by using a simulation model describing both the mass and energy balance as well as the operating margin. Three scenarios were analyzed: reference, electricity reduction and energy substitution. The simulation show that the total input to the system is lowest in the Energy substitution scenario. Additionally, in the Energy substitution scenario the steam from the incineration boiler covers not only the steam shortage but also a part of the steam produced using the biofuel boiler, the cooling tower connected to the incineration boiler is no longer needed and the excess heat can cover the whole district heating load during the whole year. The study shows a substantial economic advantage if all stakeholders act together as one system. However, costs and benefits are unequally shared between the actors. This means that there is a need for new business models in order to share the system costs and benefits.

Keywords: energy system, cooperation, simulation method, excess heat, district heating

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Authors: Lota Largavista

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This study entitled, ‘The Organizational Structure, Development Features, and Metadiscoursal Elements in the Expository Writing of Freshman College Writers’ aimed to examine essays written by college students. It seeks to examine the organizational structure and development features of the essays and describe their defining characteristics, the linguistic elements at both macrostructural and microstructural discourse levels and the types of textual and interpersonal metadiscourse markers that are employed in order to negotiate meanings with their prospective readers. The different frameworks used to analyze the essays include Toulmin’s ( 1984) model for argument structure, Olson’s ( 2003) three-part essay structure; Halliday and Matthiesen (2004) in Herriman (2011) notions of thematic structure, Danes (1974) thematic progression or method of development, Halliday’s (2004) concept of grammatical and lexical cohesion ;Hyland’s (2005) metadiscourse strategies; and Chung and Nation’s( 2003) four-step scale for technical vocabulary. This descriptive study analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively how freshman students generally express their written compositions. Coding of units is done to determine what linguistic features are present in the essays. Findings revealed that students’ expository essays observe a three-part structure having all three moves, the Introduction, the Body and the Conclusion. Stance assertion, stance support, and emerging moves/strategies are found to be employed in the essays. Students have more marked themes on the essays and also prefer constant theme progression as their method of development. The analysis of salient linguistic elements reveals frequently used cohesive devices and metadiscoursal strategies. Based on the findings, an instructional learning plan is being proposed. This plan is characterized by a genre approach that focuses on expository and linguistic conventions.

Keywords: metadiscourse, organization, theme progression, structure

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

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Authors: Md. Rezaul Karim, Andreas Thiel

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Bangladesh is known as one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. Innovative technologies are always the key responses to the management of climate impacts. The objectives of this study are to determine the farmer’s perception of climate variability, to compare farmers’ perceptions with metrological data, and to explore the determinants that affect the likelihood of adoption of the selected Climate Smart Agricultural (CSA) technologies. Data regarding climate change perception, determinants and adoption were collected based on the household survey from stratified and randomly selected 365 farmers of the Biral sub-district under Dinajpur district in drought-prone northern Bangladesh. The likelihood of adoption of CSA technologies was analyzed following a multivariate probit model. The findings show that about 82.5% of the farmers perceived increasing temperature, and 75.1 % of farmers perceived decreasing dry season rainfall over the years, which is similarly relevant to metrological data. About 76.4.7% and 80.85% of farmers were aware of the drought tolerance crops and vermicompost, respectively; more than half of the farmers adopted these practices. Around 70.7% of farmers were aware of perching for insect control, but 46.3% of farmers adopted this practice. Although two-thirds of farmers were aware of crop diversification and pheromone trap, adoption was lower compared to the other three CSAs. Results also indicate that the likelihood of adoption of the selected CSAs is significantly influenced by different factors such as socio-economic characteristics, institutional factors and perceived technological or innovation attributes. The likelihood of adopting drought tolerance crops is affected by 11, while crop diversification and perching method by 7, pheromone trap by 9 and vermicompost by 8 determining factors. Lack of information and unavailability of input appear to be major obstacles to the non-adoption of CSA technologies. This study suggests that policy implications are necessary to promote extension services and overcome the obstacles to the non-adoption of individual CSA technologies. It further recommends that the research study should be conducted in a diverse context, nationally or globally.

Keywords: determinants, adoption, climate smart agriculture, northern Bangladesh

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