Search results for: Panel ARDL model
14811 Establishing Multi-Leveled Computability as a Living-System Evolutionary Context
Authors: Ron Cottam, Nils Langloh, Willy Ranson, Roger Vounckx
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We start by formally describing the requirements for environmental-reaction survival computation in a natural temporally-demanding medium, and develop this into a more general model of the evolutionary context as a computational machine. The effect of this development is to replace deterministic logic by a modified form which exhibits a continuous range of dimensional fractal diffuseness between the isolation of perfectly ordered localization and the extended communication associated with nonlocality as represented by pure causal chaos. We investigate the appearance of life and consciousness in the derived general model, and propose a representation of Nature within which all localizations have the character of quasi-quantal entities. We compare our conclusions with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and nonlocal teleportation, and maintain that computability is the principal influence on evolution in the model we propose.Keywords: computability, evolution, life, localization, modeling, nonlocality
Procedia PDF Downloads 39114810 Verification and Proposal of Information Processing Model Using EEG-Based Brain Activity Monitoring
Authors: Toshitaka Higashino, Naoki Wakamiya
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Human beings perform a task by perceiving information from outside, recognizing them, and responding them. There have been various attempts to analyze and understand internal processes behind the reaction to a given stimulus by conducting psychological experiments and analysis from multiple perspectives. Among these, we focused on Model Human Processor (MHP). However, it was built based on psychological experiments and thus the relation with brain activity was unclear so far. To verify the validity of the MHP and propose our model from a viewpoint of neuroscience, EEG (Electroencephalography) measurements are performed during experiments in this study. More specifically, first, experiments were conducted where Latin alphabet characters were used as visual stimuli. In addition to response time, ERPs (event-related potentials) such as N100 and P300 were measured by using EEG. By comparing cycle time predicted by the MHP and latency of ERPs, it was found that N100, related to perception of stimuli, appeared at the end of the perceptual processor. Furthermore, by conducting an additional experiment, it was revealed that P300, related to decision making, appeared during the response decision process, not at the end. Second, by experiments using Japanese Hiragana characters, i.e. Japan's own phonetic symbols, those findings were confirmed. Finally, Japanese Kanji characters were used as more complicated visual stimuli. A Kanji character usually has several readings and several meanings. Despite the difference, a reading-related task and a meaning-related task exhibited similar results, meaning that they involved similar information processing processes of the brain. Based on those results, our model was proposed which reflects response time and ERP latency. It consists of three processors: the perception processor from an input of a stimulus to appearance of N100, the cognitive processor from N100 to P300, and the decision-action processor from P300 to response. Using our model, an application system which reflects brain activity can be established.Keywords: brain activity, EEG, information processing model, model human processor
Procedia PDF Downloads 9314809 Examining K-12 In-Service Teachers’ Comfort Level with the Social Model of Disability and Its Impact on Inclusive Measures in the Classroom
Authors: Frederic Fovet
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Inclusive provisions have been statutorily mandated in North America for now over two decades. Despite a growing body of literature around inclusive practices, many in-service teachers continue to express difficulties when it comes to tangible implementation of inclusion in the everyday classroom. While there is debate around the various forms inclusion can take (UDL, differentiation, personalization, etc.), there appears to be a more significant hurdle in getting in-service teachers to fully embrace inclusion both as a goal and a practice. This paper investigates teachers’ degree of awareness around the Social Model of Disability. It argues that teachers often lack basic awareness of disability studies, more particularly of the Social Model of Disability, and that this has a direct impact on their capacity to conceptualize and embrace inclusion. The paper draws from the researcher’s experience as a graduate instructor with in-service teachers, as well as from his experience as a consultant working with schools and school boards. The methodology chosen here is phenomenology, and it draws on tools such as auto-ethnography. The paper opens a discussion around the reform and transformation of pre-service teacher training. It argues that disability studies should be integrated into teacher training as it plays a key role in having teachers develop a theoretical understanding of disability as a social construct.Keywords: disability, K-12, inclusion, social model, in-service teachers
Procedia PDF Downloads 18114808 A Partially Accelerated Life Test Planning with Competing Risks and Linear Degradation Path under Tampered Failure Rate Model
Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis
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In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data
Procedia PDF Downloads 32414807 Investigation of Extreme Gradient Boosting Model Prediction of Soil Strain-Shear Modulus
Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Reza Bushehri
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One of the principal parameters defining the clay soil dynamic response is the strain-shear modulus relation. Predicting the strain and, subsequently, shear modulus reduction of the soil is essential for performance analysis of structures exposed to earthquake and dynamic loadings. Many soil properties affect soil’s dynamic behavior. In order to capture those effects, in this study, a database containing 1193 data points consists of maximum shear modulus, strain, moisture content, initial void ratio, plastic limit, liquid limit, initial confining pressure resulting from dynamic laboratory testing of 21 clays is collected for predicting the shear modulus vs. strain curve of soil. A model based on an extreme gradient boosting technique is proposed. A tree-structured parzan estimator hyper-parameter tuning algorithm is utilized simultaneously to find the best hyper-parameters for the model. The performance of the model is compared to the existing empirical equations using the coefficient of correlation and root mean square error.Keywords: XGBoost, hyper-parameter tuning, soil shear modulus, dynamic response
Procedia PDF Downloads 19314806 Developing an Edutainment Game for Children with ADHD Based on SAwD and VCIA Model
Authors: Bruno Gontijo Batista
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This paper analyzes how the Socially Aware Design (SAwD) and the Value-oriented and Culturally Informed Approach (VCIA) design model can be used to develop an edutainment game for children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The SAwD approach seeks a design that considers new dimensions in human-computer interaction, such as culture, aesthetics, emotional and social aspects of the user's everyday experience. From this perspective, the game development was VCIA model-based, including the users in the design process through participatory methodologies, considering their behavioral patterns, culture, and values. This is because values, beliefs, and behavioral patterns influence how technology is understood and used and the way it impacts people's lives. This model can be applied at different stages of design, which goes from explaining the problem and organizing the requirements to the evaluation of the prototype and the final solution. Thus, this paper aims to understand how this model can be used in the development of an edutainment game for children with ADHD. In the area of education and learning, children with ADHD have difficulties both in behavior and in school performance, as they are easily distracted, which is reflected both in classes and on tests. Therefore, they must perform tasks that are exciting or interesting for them, once the pleasure center in the brain is activated, it reinforces the center of attention, leaving the child more relaxed and focused. In this context, serious games have been used as part of the treatment of ADHD in children aiming to improve focus and attention, stimulate concentration, as well as be a tool for improving learning in areas such as math and reading, combining education and entertainment (edutainment). Thereby, as a result of the research, it was developed, in a participatory way, applying the VCIA model, an edutainment game prototype, for a mobile platform, for children between 8 and 12 years old.Keywords: ADHD, edutainment, SAwD, VCIA
Procedia PDF Downloads 17414805 Broadening the Roles of Masjid: Reviving Prophetic Holistic Model in Fostering Islamic Education and Arabic Language in South-Western Nigeria
Authors: Ahmad Tijani Surajudeen, Muhammad Zahiri Awang Mat, Aliy Abdulwahid Adebisi
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With arrival of Islam in the South-Western Nigeria in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, various masājid established in different parts of the area played vital roles towards the betterment and unity of the Muslims. However, despite the fact that the masājid in the South-Western part of Nigeria contributed immensely to the spiritual and educational enhancement of the Muslims, it has not fully captured the holistic educational roles as a unique model used by the Prophet (S.A.W). Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to investigate and broaden the roles of masjid towards its compartmentalized and holistic contributions among the Muslims in the south-western Nigeria. The findings from the paper have identified five holistic roles of masjid, namely, spiritual, intellectual, physical, social and emotional contributions which have been exemplified in the prophetic model of masjid. The paper has argued that the five factors must be unreservedly unified towards the betterment of the Muslims and enhancement of Islamic education and Arabic Language in the South-Western Nigeria. However, the challenges of masjid management in the South-Western Nigeria are the main hindrance in achieving the holistic roles of masjid. It is thereby suggested that, the management of masjid should take the identified prophetic model of masjid into account in order to positively improve the affairs of Muslims as well as promoting the teaching and learning of Islamic education and Arabic language among the Muslims in the South-Western Nigeria.Keywords: worship, Islamic education, Arabic language, prophetic holistic model
Procedia PDF Downloads 32314804 Mathematical Modelling of Human Cardiovascular-Respiratory System Response to Exercise in Rwanda
Authors: Jean Marie Ntaganda, Froduald Minani, Wellars Banzi, Lydie Mpinganzima, Japhet Niyobuhungiro, Jean Bosco Gahutu, Vincent Dusabejambo, Immaculate Kambutse
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In this paper, we present a nonlinear dynamic model for the interactive mechanism of the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The model is designed and analyzed for human during physical exercises. In order to verify the adequacy of the designed model, data collected in Rwanda are used for validation. We have simulated the impact of heart rate and alveolar ventilation as controls of cardiovascular and respiratory system respectively to steady state response of the main cardiovascular hemodynamic quantities i.e., systemic arterial and venous blood pressures, arterial oxygen partial pressure and arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, to the stabilised values of controls. We used data collected in Rwanda for both male and female during physical activities. We obtained a good agreement with physiological data in the literature. The model may represent an important tool to improve the understanding of exercise physiology.Keywords: exercise, cardiovascular/respiratory, hemodynamic quantities, numerical simulation, physical activity, sportsmen in Rwanda, system
Procedia PDF Downloads 23614803 Determinants of Rural Household Effective Demand for Biogas Technology in Southern Ethiopia
Authors: Mesfin Nigussie
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The objectives of the study were to identify factors affecting rural households’ willingness to install biogas plant and amount willingness to pay in order to examine determinants of effective demand for biogas technology. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select 120 respondents for the study. The binary probit regression model was employed to identify factors affecting rural households’ decision to install biogas technology. The probit model result revealed that household size, total household income, access to extension services related to biogas, access to credit service, proximity to water sources, perception of households about the quality of biogas, perception index about attributes of biogas, perception of households about installation cost of biogas and availability of energy source were statistically significant in determining household’s decision to install biogas. Tobit model was employed to examine determinants of rural household’s amount of willingness to pay. Based on the model result, age of the household head, total annual income of the household, access to extension service and availability of other energy source were significant variables that influence willingness to pay. Providing due considerations for extension services, availability of credit or subsidy, improving the quality of biogas technology design and minimizing cost of installation by using locally available materials are the main suggestions of this research that help to create effective demand for biogas technology.Keywords: biogas technology, effective demand, probit model, tobit model, willingnes to pay
Procedia PDF Downloads 13114802 A Framework for ERP Project Evaluation Based on BSC Model: A Study in Iran
Authors: Mohammad Reza Ostad Ali Naghi Kashani, Esfanji Elia
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Nowadays, the amounts of companies which tend to have an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) application are increasing particularly in developing countries like Iran. ERP projects are expensive, time consuming, and complex, in addition the failure rate is high among these projects. It is important to know whether these projects could meet their goals or not. Furthermore, the area which should be improved should be identified. In this paper we made a framework to evaluate ERP projects success implementation. First, based on literature review we made a framework based on BSC model, financial, customer, processes, learning and knowledge, because of the importance of change management it was added to model. Then an organization was divided in three layers. We choose corporate, managerial, and operational levels. Then to find criteria to assess each aspect, we use Delphi method in two rounds. And for the second round we made a questionnaire and did some statistical tasks on them. Based on the statistical results some of them are accepted and others are rejected.Keywords: ERP, BSC, ERP project evaluation, IT projects
Procedia PDF Downloads 31514801 Standard Model-Like Higgs Decay into Displaced Heavy Neutrino Pairs in U(1)' Models
Authors: E. Accomando, L. Delle Rose, S. Moretti, E. Olaiya, C. Shepherd-Themistocleous
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Heavy sterile neutrinos are almost ubiquitous in the class of Beyond Standard Model scenarios aimed at addressing the puzzle that emerged from the discovery of neutrino flavour oscillations, hence the need to explain their masses. In particular, they are necessary in a U(1)’ enlarged Standard Model (SM). We show that these heavy neutrinos can be rather long-lived producing distinctive displaced vertices and tracks. Indeed, depending on the actual decay length, they can decay inside a Large Hadron Collider (LHC) detector far from the main interaction point and can be identified in the inner tracking system or the muon chambers, emulated here through the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector parameters. Among the possible production modes of such heavy neutrino, we focus on their pair production mechanism in the SM Higgs decay, eventually yielding displaced lepton signatures following the heavy neutrino decays into weak gauge bosons. By employing well-established triggers available for the CMS detector and using the data collected by the end of the LHC Run 2, these signatures would prove to be accessible with negligibly small background. Finally, we highlight the importance that the exploitation of new triggers, specifically, displaced tri-lepton ones, could have for this displaced vertex search.Keywords: beyond the standard model, displaced vertex, Higgs physics, neutrino physics
Procedia PDF Downloads 13714800 A Systematic Review of Situational Awareness and Cognitive Load Measurement in Driving
Authors: Aly Elshafei, Daniela Romano
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With the development of autonomous vehicles, a human-machine interaction (HMI) system is needed for a safe transition of control when a takeover request (TOR) is required. An important part of the HMI system is the ability to monitor the level of situational awareness (SA) of any driver in real-time, in different scenarios, and without any pre-calibration. Presenting state-of-the-art machine learning models used to measure SA is the purpose of this systematic review. Investigating the limitations of each type of sensor, the gaps, and the most suited sensor and computational model that can be used in driving applications. To the author’s best knowledge this is the first literature review identifying online and offline classification methods used to measure SA, explaining which measurements are subject or session-specific, and how many classifications can be done with each classification model. This information can be very useful for researchers measuring SA to identify the most suited model to measure SA for different applications.Keywords: situational awareness, autonomous driving, gaze metrics, EEG, ECG
Procedia PDF Downloads 11114799 Analyzing the Influence of Hydrometeorlogical Extremes, Geological Setting, and Social Demographic on Public Health
Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip
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This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 10914798 Men's Intimate Violence: Theory and Practice Relationship
Authors: Omer Zvi Shaked
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Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a widespread social problem. Since the 1970's, and due to political changes resulting from the feminist movement, western society has been changing its attitude towards the phenomenon and has been taking an active approach to reduce its magnitude. Enterprises in the form of legislation, awareness and prevention campaigns, women's shelters, and community intervention programs became more prevalent as years progressed. Although many initiatives were found to be productive, the effectiveness of one, however, remained questionable throughout the years: intervention programs for men's intimate violence. Surveys outline two main intervention models for men's intimate violence. The first is the Duluth model, which argued that men are socialized to be dominant - while women are socialized to be subordinate - and men are therefore required by social imperative to enforce, physically if necessary, their dominance. The Duluth model became the chief authorized intervention program, and some states in the US even regulated it as the standard criminal justice program for men's intimate violence. However, meta-analysis findings demonstrated that based on a partner's reports, Duluth treatment completers have 44% recidivism rate, and between 40% and 85% dropout range. The second model is the Cognitive-Behavioral Model (CBT), which is a highly accepted intervention worldwide. The model argues that cognitive misrepresentations of intimate situations precede violent behaviors frequently when anger predisposition exists. Since anger dysregulation mediates between one's cognitive schemes and violent response, anger regulation became the chief purpose of the intervention. Yet, a meta-analysis found only a 56% risk reduction for CBT interventions. It is, therefore, crucial to understand the background behind the domination of both the Duluth model and CBT interventions. This presentation will discuss the ways in which theoretical conceptualizations of men's intimate violence, as well as ideologies, had contributed to the above-mentioned interventions' wide acceptance, despite known lack of scientific and evidential support. First, the presentation will review the prominent interventions for male intimate violence, the Duluth model, and CBT. Second, the presentation will review the prominent theoretical models explaining men's intimate violence: The Patriarchal model, the Abusive Personality model, and the Post-Traumatic Stress model. Third, the presentation will discuss the interrelation between theory and practice, and the nature of affinity between research and practice regarding men's intimate violence. Finally, the presentation will set new directions for further research, aiming to improve intervention's efficiency with men's intimate violence and advance social work practice in the field.Keywords: intimate partner violence, theory and practice relationship, Duluth, CBT, abusive personality, post-traumatic stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 12414797 A Coupled Model for Two-Phase Simulation of a Heavy Water Pressure Vessel Reactor
Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro
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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow
Procedia PDF Downloads 46614796 Introducing a Practical Model for Instructional System Design Based on Determining of the knowledge Level of the Organization: Case Study of Isfahan Public Transportation Co.
Authors: Mojtaba Aghajari, Alireza Aghasi
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The first challenge which the current research faced has been the identification or determination of the level of knowledge in Isfahan public transportation corporation, and the second challenge has been the recognition and choice of a proper approach for the instructional system design. Responding these two challenges will present an appropriate model of instructional system design. In order to respond the first challenge or question, Nonaka and Takeuchi KM model has been utilized due to its universality among the 26 models proposed so far. The statistical population of this research included 2200 people, among which 200 persons were chosen as the sample of the research by the use of Morgan’s method. The data gathering has been carried out by the means of a questionnaire based on Nonaka and Takeuchi KM model, analysis of which has been done by SPSS program. The output of this questionnaire, yielding the point of 1.96 (out of 5 points), revealed that the general condition of Isfahan public transportation corporation is weak concerning its being knowledge-centered. After placing this output on Jonassen’s continuum, it was revealed that the appropriate approach for instructional system design is the system (or behavioral) approach. Accordingly, different steps of the general model of ADDIE, which covers all of the ISO10015 standards, were adopted in the act of designing. Such process in Isfahan public transportation corporation was designed and divided into three main steps, including: instructional designing and planning, instructional course planning, determination of the evaluation and the effectiveness of the instructional courses.Keywords: instructional system design, system approach, knowledge management, employees
Procedia PDF Downloads 31514795 Exploring the Relationship between the Adoption of Environmental Processes, Policies, Techniques and Environmental Operational Performance
Authors: Renata Konadu
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Over the last two decades, the concept of environmental management and its related issues have received increased attention in global discourse and on management research agenda due to climate change and other environmental challenges. To abate and avert these challenges, diverse environmental policies, strategies and practices have been adopted by businesses and economies as a whole. Extant literature has placed much emphasis on whether improved environmental operational performance improves firm performance. However, there is a huge gap in the literature with regards to whether the adoption of environmental management practices and policies has a direct relationship with environmental operational performance (EOP). The current paper is intended to provide a comprehensive perspective of how different aspects of environmental management can relate to firms EOP. Using a panel regression analysis of 149 large listed firms in the UK, the study found evidence of both negative and positive statistically significant link between some Environmental Policies (EP), Environmental Processes (EPR), Environmental Management Systems (EMS) and EOP. The findings suggest that in terms of relating EP, EPR and EMS to Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions for instance, the latter should be viewed separately in Scopes 1, 2 and 3 as developed by GHG protocol. The results have useful implication for policy makers and managers when designing strategies and policies to reduce negative environmental impacts.Keywords: environmental management, environmental operational performance, GHGs, large listed firms
Procedia PDF Downloads 24714794 Micromechanical Modeling of Fiber-Matrix Debonding in Unidirectional Composites
Authors: M. Palizvan, M. T. Abadi, M. H. Sadr
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Due to variations in damage mechanisms in the microscale, the behavior of fiber-reinforced composites is nonlinear and difficult to model. To make use of computational advantages, homogenization method is applied to the micro-scale model in order to minimize the cost at the expense of detail of local microscale phenomena. In this paper, the effective stiffness is calculated using the homogenization of nonlinear behavior of a composite representative volume element (RVE) containing fiber-matrix debonding. The damage modes for the RVE are considered by using cohesive elements and contacts for the cohesive behavior of the interface between fiber and matrix. To predict more realistic responses of composite materials, different random distributions of fibers are proposed besides square and hexagonal arrays. It was shown that in some cases, there is quite different damage behavior in different fiber distributions. A comprehensive comparison has been made between different graphs.Keywords: homogenization, cohesive zone model, fiber-matrix debonding, RVE
Procedia PDF Downloads 16214793 Black Box Model and Evolutionary Fuzzy Control Methods of Coupled-Tank System
Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami
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In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.Keywords: function tuner method (FTM), fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm (GA)
Procedia PDF Downloads 30114792 An Integer Nonlinear Program Proposal for Intermodal Transportation Service Network Design
Authors: Laaziz El Hassan
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The Service Network Design Problem (SNDP) is a tactical issue in freight transportation firms. The existing formulations of the problem for intermodal rail-road transportation were not always adapted to the intermodality in terms of full asset utilization and modal shift reinforcement. The objective of the article is to propose a model having a more compliant formulation with intermodality, including constraints highlighting the imperatives of asset management, reinforcing modal shift from road to rail and reducing, by the way, road mode CO2 emissions. The model is a fixed charged, path based integer nonlinear program. Its objective is to minimize services total cost while ensuring full assets utilization to satisfy freight demand forecast. The model's main feature is that it gives as output both the train sizes and the services frequencies for a planning period. We solved the program using a commercial solver and discussed the numerical results.Keywords: intermodal transport network, service network design, model, nonlinear integer program, path-based, service frequencies, modal shift
Procedia PDF Downloads 11214791 Surface Tension and Bulk Density of Ammonium Nitrate Solutions: A Molecular Dynamics Study
Authors: Sara Mosallanejad, Bogdan Z. Dlugogorski, Jeff Gore, Mohammednoor Altarawneh
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Ammonium nitrate (NH₄NO₃, AN) is commonly used as the main component of AN emulsion and fuel oil (ANFO) explosives, that use extensively in civilian and mining operations for underground development and tunneling applications. The emulsion formulation and wettability of AN prills, which affect the physical stability and detonation of ANFO, highly depend on the surface tension, density, viscosity of the used liquid. Therefore, for engineering applications of this material, the determination of density and surface tension of concentrated aqueous solutions of AN is essential. The molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method have been used to investigate the density and the surface tension of high concentrated ammonium nitrate solutions; up to its solubility limit in water. Non-polarisable models for water and ions have carried out the simulations, and the electronic continuum correction model (ECC) uses a scaling of the charges of the ions to apply the polarisation implicitly into the non-polarisable model. The results of calculated density and the surface tension of the solutions have been compared to available experimental values. Our MD simulations show that the non-polarisable model with full-charge ions overestimates the experimental results while the reduce-charge model for the ions fits very well with the experimental data. Ions in the solutions show repulsion from the interface using the non-polarisable force fields. However, when charges of the ions in the original model are scaled in line with the scaling factor of the ECC model, the ions create a double ionic layer near the interface by the migration of anions toward the interface while cations stay in the bulk of the solutions. Similar ions orientations near the interface were observed when polarisable models were used in simulations. In conclusion, applying the ECC model to the non-polarisable force field yields the density and surface tension of the AN solutions with high accuracy in comparison to the experimental measurements.Keywords: ammonium nitrate, electronic continuum correction, non-polarisable force field, surface tension
Procedia PDF Downloads 22114790 Computational Model for Predicting Effective siRNA Sequences Using Whole Stacking Energy (ΔG) for Gene Silencing
Authors: Reena Murali, David Peter S.
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The small interfering RNA (siRNA) alters the regulatory role of mRNA during gene expression by translational inhibition. Recent studies shows that up regulation of mRNA cause serious diseases like Cancer. So designing effective siRNA with good knockdown effects play an important role in gene silencing. Various siRNA design tools had been developed earlier. In this work, we are trying to analyze the existing good scoring second generation siRNA predicting tools and to optimize the efficiency of siRNA prediction by designing a computational model using Artificial Neural Network and whole stacking energy (ΔG), which may help in gene silencing and drug design in cancer therapy. Our model is trained and tested against a large data set of siRNA sequences. Validation of our results is done by finding correlation coefficient of experimental versus observed inhibition efficacy of siRNA. We achieved a correlation coefficient of 0.727 in our previous computational model and we could improve the correlation coefficient up to 0.753 when the threshold of whole tacking energy is greater than or equal to -32.5 kcal/mol.Keywords: artificial neural network, double stranded RNA, RNA interference, short interfering RNA
Procedia PDF Downloads 51814789 Design and Performance Evaluation of Hybrid Corrugated-GFRP Infill Panels
Authors: Woo Young Jung, Sung Min Park, Ho Young Son, Viriyavudh Sim
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This study presents a way to reduce earthquake damage and emergency rehabilitation of critical structures such as schools, high-tech factories, and hospitals due to strong ground motions associated with climate changes. Regarding recent trend, a strong earthquake causes serious damage to critical structures and then the critical structure might be influenced by sequence aftershocks (or tsunami) due to fault plane adjustments. Therefore, in order to improve seismic performance of critical structures, retrofitted or strengthening study of the structures under aftershocks sequence after emergency rehabilitation of the structures subjected to strong earthquakes is widely carried out. Consequently, this study used composite material for emergency rehabilitation of the structure rather than concrete and steel materials because of high strength and stiffness, lightweight, rapid manufacturing, and dynamic performance. Also, this study was to develop or improve the seismic performance or seismic retrofit of critical structures subjected to strong ground motions and earthquake aftershocks, by utilizing GFRP-Corrugated Infill Panels (GCIP).Keywords: aftershock, composite material, GFRP, infill panel
Procedia PDF Downloads 33214788 Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes
Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin
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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States
Procedia PDF Downloads 34414787 Rheology and Structural Arrest of Dense Dairy Suspensions: A Soft Matter Approach
Authors: Marjan Javanmard
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The rheological properties of dairy products critically depend on the underlying organisation of proteins at multiple length scales. When heated and acidified, milk proteins form particle gel that is viscoelastic, solvent rich, ‘soft’ material. In this work recent developments on the rheology of soft particles suspensions were used to interpret and potentially define the properties of dairy gel structures. It is discovered that at volume fractions below random close packing (RCP), the Maron-Pierce-Quemada (MPQ) model accurately predicts the viscosity of the dairy gel suspensions without fitting parameters; the MPQ model has been shown previously to provide reasonable predictions of the viscosity of hard sphere suspensions from the volume fraction, solvent viscosity and RCP. This surprising finding demonstrates that up to RCP, the dairy gel system behaves as a hard sphere suspension and that the structural aggregates behave as discrete particulates akin to what is observed for microgel suspensions. At effective phase volumes well above RCP, the system is a soft solid. In this region, it is discovered that the storage modulus of the sheared AMG scales with the storage modulus of the set gel. The storage modulus in this regime is reasonably well described as a function of effective phase volume by the Evans and Lips model. Findings of this work has potential to aid in rational design and control of dairy food structure-properties.Keywords: dairy suspensions, rheology-structure, Maron-Pierce-Quemada Model, Evans and Lips Model
Procedia PDF Downloads 21414786 Efficient Estimation for the Cox Proportional Hazards Cure Model
Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad
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While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood
Procedia PDF Downloads 13514785 Modeling of Tsunami Propagation and Impact on West Vancouver Island, Canada
Authors: S. Chowdhury, A. Corlett
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Large tsunamis strike the British Columbia coast every few hundred years. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, which extends along the Pacific coast from Vancouver Island to Northern California is one of the most seismically active regions in Canada. Significant earthquakes have occurred in this region, including the 1700 Cascade Earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 9.2. Based on geological records, experts have predicted a 'great earthquake' of a similar magnitude within this region may happen any time. This earthquake is expected to generate a large tsunami that could impact the coastal communities on Vancouver Island. Since many of these communities are in remote locations, they are more likely to be vulnerable, as the post-earthquake relief efforts would be impacted by the damage to critical road infrastructures. To assess the coastal vulnerability within these communities, a hydrodynamic model has been developed using MIKE-21 software. We have considered a 500 year probabilistic earthquake design criteria including the subsidence in this model. The bathymetry information was collected from Canadian Hydrographic Services (CHS), and National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration (NOAA). The arial survey was conducted using a Cessna-172 aircraft for the communities, and then the information was converted to generate a topographic digital elevation map. Both survey information was incorporated into the model, and the domain size of the model was about 1000km x 1300km. This model was calibrated with the tsunami occurred off the west coast of Moresby Island on October 28, 2012. The water levels from the model were compared with two tide gauge stations close to the Vancouver Island and the output from the model indicates the satisfactory result. For this study, the design water level was considered as High Water Level plus the Sea Level Rise for 2100 year. The hourly wind speeds from eight directions were collected from different wind stations and used a 200-year return period wind speed in the model for storm events. The regional model was set for 12 hrs simulation period, which takes more than 16 hrs to complete one simulation using double Xeon-E7 CPU computer plus a K-80 GPU. The boundary information for the local model was generated from the regional model. The local model was developed using a high resolution mesh to estimate the coastal flooding for the communities. It was observed from this study that many communities will be effected by the Cascadia tsunami and the inundation maps were developed for the communities. The infrastructures inside the coastal inundation area were identified. Coastal vulnerability planning and resilient design solutions will be implemented to significantly reduce the risk.Keywords: tsunami, coastal flooding, coastal vulnerable, earthquake, Vancouver, wave propagation
Procedia PDF Downloads 12614784 Sensitivity of Credit Default Swaps Premium to Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets
Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz
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Risk premium of emerging markets are moving altogether depending on the momentum and shifts in the global risk appetite. However, the magnitudes of these changes in the risk premium of emerging market economies might vary. In this paper, we focus on how global risk factor affects credit default swaps (CDS) premiums of emerging markets using principal component analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. PCA results indicate that the first common component accounts for almost 76% of common variation in CDS premiums of emerging markets. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are employed to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. There are two main macroeconomic variables that affect the sensitivity; government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP. The countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.Keywords: emerging markets, principal component analysis, credit default swaps, sovereign risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 37314783 Developing a Clustered-Based Model and Strategy for Waterfront Urban Tourism in Manado, Indonesia
Authors: Bet El Silisna Lagarense, Agustinus Walansendow
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Manado Waterfront Development (MWD) occurs along the coastline of the city to meet the communities’ various needs and interests. Manado waterfront, with its various kinds of tourist attractions, is being developed to strengthen opportunities for both tourism and other businesses. There are many buildings that are used for trade and business purposes. The spatial distributions of tourism, commercial and residential land uses overlap. Field research at the study site consisted desktop scan, questionnaire-based survey, observation and in-depth interview with key informants and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) identified how MWD was initially planned and designed in the whole process of decision making in terms of resource and environmental management particularly for the waterfront tourism development in the long run. The study developed a clustered-based model for waterfront urban tourism in Manado through evaluation of spatial distribution of tourism uses along the waterfront.Keywords: clustered-based model, Manado, urban tourism, waterfront
Procedia PDF Downloads 29014782 A Framework for Auditing Multilevel Models Using Explainability Methods
Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey
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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics
Procedia PDF Downloads 87