Search results for: pulp and paper waste
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 26658

Search results for: pulp and paper waste

2568 Polycode Texts in Communication of Antisocial Groups: Functional and Pragmatic Aspects

Authors: Ivan Potapov

Abstract:

Background: The aim of this paper is to investigate poly code texts in the communication of youth antisocial groups. Nowadays, the notion of a text has numerous interpretations. Besides all the approaches to defining a text, we must take into account semiotic and cultural-semiotic ones. Rapidly developing IT, world globalization, and new ways of coding of information increase the role of the cultural-semiotic approach. However, the development of computer technologies leads also to changes in the text itself. Polycode texts play a more and more important role in the everyday communication of the younger generation. Therefore, the research of functional and pragmatic aspects of both verbal and non-verbal content is actually quite important. Methods and Material: For this survey, we applied the combination of four methods of text investigation: not only intention and content analysis but also semantic and syntactic analysis. Using these methods provided us with information on general text properties, the content of transmitted messages, and each communicants’ intentions. Besides, during our research, we figured out the social background; therefore, we could distinguish intertextual connections between certain types of polycode texts. As the sources of the research material, we used 20 public channels in the popular messenger Telegram and data extracted from smartphones, which belonged to arrested members of antisocial groups. Findings: This investigation let us assert that polycode texts can be characterized as highly intertextual language unit. Moreover, we could outline the classification of these texts based on communicants’ intentions. The most common types of antisocial polycode texts are a call to illegal actions and agitation. What is more, each type has its own semantic core: it depends on the sphere of communication. However, syntactic structure is universal for most of the polycode texts. Conclusion: Polycode texts play important role in online communication. The results of this investigation demonstrate that in some social groups using these texts has a destructive influence on the younger generation and obviously needs further researches.

Keywords: text, polycode text, internet linguistics, text analysis, context, semiotics, sociolinguistics

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2567 Identifying Artifacts in SEM-EDS of Fouled RO Membranes Used for the Treatment of Brackish Groundwater Through Raman and ICP-MS Analysis

Authors: Abhishek Soti, Aditya Sharma, Akhilendra Bhushan Gupta

Abstract:

Fouled reverse osmosis membranes are primarily characterized by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer (EDS) for a detailed investigation of foulants; however, this has severe limitations on several accounts. Apart from inaccuracy in spectral properties and inevitable interferences and interactions between sample and instrument, misidentification of elements due to overlapping peaks is a significant drawback of EDS. This paper discusses this limitation by analyzing fouled polyamide RO membranes derived from community RO plants of Rajasthan treating brackish water via a combination of results obtained from EDS and Raman spectroscopy and cross corroborating with ICP-MS analysis of water samples prepared by dissolving the deposited salts. The anomalous behavior of different morphic forms of CaCO₃ in aqueous suspensions tends to introduce false reporting of the presence of certain heavy metals and rare earth metals in the scales of the fouled RO membranes used for treating brackish groundwater when analyzed using the commonly adopted techniques like SEM-EDS or Raman spectrometry. Peaks of CaCO₃ reflected in EDS spectra of the membrane were found to be misinterpreted as Scandium due to the automatic assignment of elements by the software. Similarly, the morphic forms merged with the dominant peak of CaCO₃ might be reflected as a single peak of Molybdenum in the Raman spectrum. A subsequent ICP-MS analysis of the deposited salts showed that both Sc and Mo were below detectable levels. It is always essential to cross-confirm the results through a destructive analysis method to avoid such interferences. It is further recommended to study different morphic forms of CaCO₃ scales, as they exhibit anomalous properties like reverse solubility with temperature and hence altered precipitation tendencies, for an accurate description of the composition of scales, which is vital for the smooth functioning of RO systems.

Keywords: reverse osmosis, foulant analysis, groundwater, EDS, artifacts

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
2566 Development of Doctoral Education in Armenia (1990 - 2023)

Authors: Atom Mkhitaryan, Astghik Avetisyan

Abstract:

We analyze the developments of doctoral education in Armenia since 1990 and the management process. Education and training of highly qualified personnel are increasingly seen as a fundamental platform that ensures the development of the state. Reforming the national institute for doctoral studies (aspirantura) is aimed at improving the quality of human resources in science, optimizing research topics in accordance with the priority areas of development of science and technology, increasing publication and innovative activities, bringing national science and research closer to the world level and achieving international recognition. We present a number of defended dissertations in Armenia during the last 30 years, the dynamics and the main trends of the development of the academic degree awarding system. We discuss the possible impact of reforming the system of training and certification of highly qualified personnel on the organization of third–level doctoral education (doctoral schools) and specialized / dissertation councils in Armenia. The results of the SWOT analysis of doctoral education and academic degree awarding processes in Armenia are shown. The article presents the main activities and projects aimed at using the advantages and strong points of the National Academy network in order to improve the quality of doctoral education and training. The paper explores the mechanisms of organizational, methodological and infrastructural support for research and innovation activities of doctoral students and young scientists. There are also suggested approaches to the organization of strong networking between research institutes and foreign universities for training and certification of highly qualified personnel. The authors define the role of ISEC in the management of doctoral studies and the establishment of a competitive third-level education for the sphere of research and development in Armenia.

Keywords: doctoral studies, academic degree, PhD, certification, highly qualified personnel, dissertation, research and development, innovation, networking, management of doctoral school

Procedia PDF Downloads 49
2565 Collaborative Stylistic Group Project: A Drama Practical Analysis Application

Authors: Omnia F. Elkommos

Abstract:

In the course of teaching stylistics to undergraduate students of the Department of English Language and Literature, Faculty of Arts and Humanities, the linguistic tool kit of theories comes in handy and useful for the better understanding of the different literary genres: Poetry, drama, and short stories. In the present paper, a model of teaching of stylistics is compiled and suggested. It is a collaborative group project technique for use in the undergraduate diverse specialisms (Literature, Linguistics and Translation tracks) class. Students initially are introduced to the different linguistic tools and theories suitable for each literary genre. The second step is to apply these linguistic tools to texts. Students are required to watch videos performing the poems or play, for example, and search the net for interpretations of the texts by other authorities. They should be using a template (prepared by the researcher) that has guided questions leading students along in their analysis. Finally, a practical analysis would be written up using the practical analysis essay template (also prepared by the researcher). As per collaborative learning, all the steps include activities that are student-centered addressing differentiation and considering their three different specialisms. In the process of selecting the proper tools, the actual application and analysis discussion, students are given tasks that request their collaboration. They also work in small groups and the groups collaborate in seminars and group discussions. At the end of the course/module, students present their work also collaboratively and reflect and comment on their learning experience. The module/course uses a drama play that lends itself to the task: ‘The Bond’ by Amy Lowell and Robert Frost. The project results in an interpretation of its theme, characterization and plot. The linguistic tools are drawn from pragmatics, and discourse analysis among others.

Keywords: applied linguistic theories, collaborative learning, cooperative principle, discourse analysis, drama analysis, group project, online acting performance, pragmatics, speech act theory, stylistics, technology enhanced learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
2564 Hydrodynamics of Undulating Ribbon-fin and Its Application in Bionic Underwater Robot

Authors: Zhang Jun, Zhai Shucheng, Bai Yaqiang, Zhang Guoping

Abstract:

The Gymnarchus Niioticus fish(GNF) cruises generally with high efficiency by undulating ribbon-fin propulsion while keeping its body for straight line. The swing amplitude of GNF fins is usually in 60° to 90°, and in normal state the amplitude is close to 90°, only in the control of hovering or swimming at very low speed, the amplitude is smaller (about 60°). It provides inspiration for underwater robot design. In the paper, the unsteady flow of undulating ribbon-fin propulsion is numerical simulated by the dynamic grid technique including spring-based smoothing model and local grid remeshing to adapt to the fin surface significantly deforming, and the swing amplitude of fin ray reaches 850. The numerical simulation method is validated by thrust experiments. The spatial vortex structure and its evolution with phase angle is analyzed. The propulsion mechanism is investigated by comprehensive analysis of the hydrodynamics, vortex structure, and pressure distribution on the fin surface. The numerical results indicates that there are mainly three kinds of vortexes, i.e. streamwise vortex, crescent vortex and toroidal vortex. The intensity of streamwise vortex is the strongest among all kinds of vortexes. Streamwise vortexes and crescent vortexes all alternately distribute on the two sides of mid-sagittal plane. Inside the crescent vortexes is high-speed flow, while outside is low-speed flow. The crescent vortexes mainly induce high-speed axial jet, which produces the primary thrust. This is hydrodynamic mechanism undulating ribbon-fin propulsion. The streamwise vortexes mainly induce the vertical jet, which generates the primary heave force. The effect on hydrodynamics of main geometry and movement parameters including wave length, amplitude and advanced coefficients is investigated. A bionic underwater robot with bilateral undulating ribbon-fins is designed, and its navigation performance and maneuverability are measured.

Keywords: bionic propulsion, mobile robot, underwater robot, undulating ribbon-fins

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2563 Development of Ornamental Seedlings and Cuttings for Hydroponics Using Different Substrates

Authors: Moustafa A. Fadel, Omar Al Shehhi, Mohsin Al Mussabi, Abdullah Al Ameri

Abstract:

Hydroponics represents an extraordinary promising technique if used efficiently in arid regions where water resources are extremely scarce where a great portion of the used water should be recycled and saved. Available research publications studying the production of seedlings for such purpose are limited. This research paper focuses on investigating the effect of using various substrate materials on the development of seedlings for ornamental plants. Bermuda grass, Petunia (Compacta Enana Rosa) and Epipremnum aureum are used widely in landscape design. Bermuda is used as a turf grass; Petunia is used as a flowering plant and Epipremnum aureum as an indoor ornamental plant in hydroponics. Three substrate materials were used to germinate and propagate the first two and the cuttings of the third one. Synthetic sponge (Polyurethane sponge), Rockwool and sterilized cotton were used as the substrate material in each case where an experimental water-circulating apparatus was designed and installed to execute the test. An experimental setup of closed hydroponic apparatus was developed to carry out the experiment equipped with water recycling circuit and an aeration mechanism pumping air in reservoir in order to increase oxygen levels in the recycled water. Water pumping was programmed in different regimes to allow better aeration for seeds and cuttings under investigation. Results showed that Bermuda grass germinated in Rockwool reached a germination rate of 70% while it did not exceed 50% when sponge and medically treated cotton were used after 15 days. On the other hand the highest germination rate of Petunia was observed when treated cotton was used where it recorded about 30% while it was 22%, and 7% after 20 days where Rockwool and sponge were utilized respectively. Cuttings propagation of Epipremnum aureum developed the highest number of shoots when treated cotton was used where it gave 10 shoots after 10 days while it gave just 7 shoots when Rockwool and sponge were used as the propagation substrate.

Keywords: hydroponics, germination, seedlings, cuttings

Procedia PDF Downloads 273
2562 Electrochemistry Analysis of Oxygen Reduction with Microalgal on Microbial Fuel Cell

Authors: Azri Yamina Mounia, Zitouni Dalila, Aziza Majda, Tou Insaf, Sadi Meriem

Abstract:

To confront the fossil fuel crisis and the consequences of global warning, many efforts were devoted to develop alternative electricity generation and attracted numerous researchers, especially in the microbial fuel cell field, because it allows generating electric energy and degrading multiple organics compounds at the same time. However, one of the main constraints on power generation is the slow rate of oxygen reduction at the cathode electrode. This paper describes the potential of algal biomass (Chlorella vulgaris) as photosynthetic cathodes, eliminating the need for a mechanical air supply and the use of often expensive noble metal cathode catalysts, thus improving the sustainability and cost-effectiveness of the MFC system. During polarizations, MFC power density using algal biomass was 0.4mW/m², whereas the MFC with mechanic aeration showed a value of 0.2mW/m². Chlorella vulgaris was chosen due to its fastest growing. C. vulgaris grown in BG11 medium in sterilized Erlenmeyer flask. C. vulgaris was used as a bio‐cathode. Anaerobic activated sludge from the plant of Beni‐Messous WWTP(Algiers) was used in an anodic compartment. A dual‐chamber reactor MFC was used as a reactor. The reactor has been fabricated in the laboratory using plastic jars. The cylindrical and rectangular jars were used as the anode and cathode chambers, respectively. The volume of anode and cathode chambers was 0.8 and 2L, respectively. The two chambers were connected with a proton exchange membrane (PEM). The plain graphite plates (5 x 2cm) were used as electrodes for both anode and cathode. The cyclic voltammetry analysis of oxygen reduction revealed that the cathode potential was proportional to the amount of oxygen available in the cathode surface electrode. In the case of algal aeration, the peak reduction value of -2.18A/m² was two times higher than in mechanical aeration -1.85A/m². The electricity production reached 70 mA/m² and was stimulated immediately by the oxygen produced by algae up to the value of 20 mg/L.

Keywords: Chlorella vulgaris, cyclic voltammetry, microbial fuel cell, oxygen reduction

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2561 Education-based, Graphical User Interface Design for Analyzing Phase Winding Inter-Turn Faults in Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors

Authors: Emir Alaca, Hasbi Apaydin, Rohullah Rahmatullah, Necibe Fusun Oyman Serteller

Abstract:

In recent years, Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs) have found extensive applications in various industrial sectors, including electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics, due to their high performance and low losses. Accurate mathematical modeling of PMSMs is crucial for advanced studies in electric machines. To enhance the effectiveness of graduate-level education, incorporating virtual or real experiments becomes essential to reinforce acquired knowledge. Virtual laboratories have gained popularity as cost-effective alternatives to physical testing, mitigating the risks associated with electrical machine experiments. This study presents a MATLAB-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) for PMSMs. The GUI offers a visual interface that allows users to observe variations in motor outputs corresponding to different input parameters. It enables users to explore healthy motor conditions and the effects of short-circuit faults in the one-phase winding. Additionally, the interface includes menus through which users can access equivalent circuits related to the motor and gain hands-on experience with the mathematical equations used in synchronous motor calculations. The primary objective of this paper is to enhance the learning experience of graduate and doctoral students by providing a GUI-based approach in laboratory studies. This interactive platform empowers students to examine and analyze motor outputs by manipulating input parameters, facilitating a deeper understanding of PMSM operation and control.

Keywords: magnet synchronous motor, mathematical modelling, education tools, winding inter-turn fault

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2560 The Role of Immunologic Diamonds in Dealing with Mycobacterium Tuberculosis; Responses of Immune Cells in Affliction to the Respiratory Tuberculosis

Authors: Seyyed Mohammad Amin Mousavi Sagharchi, Elham Javanroudi

Abstract:

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is a known disease with hidden features caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). This disease, which is one of the 10 deadliest in the world, has caused millions of deaths in recent decades. Furthermore, TB is responsible for infecting about 30% population of world. Like any infection, TB can activate the immune system by locating and colonization in the human body, especially in the alveoli. TB is granulomatosis, so MTB can absorb the host’s immune cells and other cells to form granuloma. Method: Different databases (e.g., PubMed) were recruited to prepare this paper and fulfill our goals to search and find effective papers and investigations. Results: Immune response to MTB is related to T cell killers and contains CD1, CD4, and CD8 T lymphocytes. CD1 lymphocytes can recognize glycolipids, which highly exist in the Mycobacterial fatty cell wall. CD4 lymphocytes and macrophages form granuloma, and it is the main line of immune response to Mycobacteria. On the other hand, CD8 cells have cytolytic function for directly killing MTB by secretion of granulysin. Other functions and secretion to the deal are interleukin-12 (IL-12) by induction of expression interferon-γ (INF-γ) for macrophages activation and creating a granuloma, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF) by promoting macrophage phagolysosomal fusion. Conclusion: Immune cells in battle with MTB are macrophages, dendritic cells (DCs), neutrophils, and natural killer (NK) cells. These immune cells can recognize the Mycobacterium by various receptors, including Toll-like receptors (TLRs), Nod-like receptors (NLRs), and C-type lectin receptors (CLRs) located in the cell surface. In human alveoli exist about 50 dendritic macrophages, which have close communication with other immune cells in the circulating system and epithelial cells to deal with Mycobacteria. Against immune cells, MTB handles some factors (e.g., cordfactor, O-Ag, lipoarabinomannan, sulfatides, and adenylate cyclase) and practical functions (e.g., inhibition of macrophages).

Keywords: mycobacterium tuberculosis, immune responses, immunological mechanisms, respiratory tuberculosis

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2559 Design and Evaluation of an Online Case-Based Library for Technology Integration in Teacher Education

Authors: Mustafa Tevfik Hebebci, Ismail Sahin, Sirin Kucuk, Ismail Celik, Ahmet Oguz Akturk

Abstract:

ADDIE is an instructional design model which has the five core elements: analyze, design, develop, implement, and evaluate. The ADDIE approach provides a systematic process for the analysis of instructional needs, the design and development of instructional programs and materials, implementation of a program, and the evaluation of the effectiveness of an instruction. The case-based study is an instructional design model that is a variant of project-oriented learning. Collecting and analyzing stories can be used in two primary ways -perform task analysis and as a learning support during instruction- by instructional designers. Besides, teachers use technology to develop students’ thinking, enriching the learning environment and providing permanent learning. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an interactive online case-study library website developed in a national project. The design goal of the website is to provide interactive, enhanced, case-based and online educational resource for educators through the purpose and within the scope of a national project. The ADDIE instructional design model was used in the development of the website for the interactive case-based library. This web-based library contains the navigation menus as the follows: “Homepage”, "Registration", "Branches", "Aim of The Research", "About TPACK", "National Project", "Contact Us", etc. This library is developed on a web-based platform, which is important in terms of manageability, accessibility, and updateability of data. Users are able to sort the displayed case-studies by their titles, dates, ratings, view counts, etc. In addition, they encouraged to rate and comment on the case-studies. The usability test is used and the expert opinion is taken for the evaluation of the website. This website is a tool to integrate technology in education. It is believed that this website will be beneficial for pre-service and in-service teachers in terms of their professional developments.

Keywords: design, ADDIE, case based library, technology integration

Procedia PDF Downloads 456
2558 Investigation of Geothermal Gradient of the Niger Delta from Recent Studies

Authors: Adedapo Jepson Olumide, Kurowska Ewa, K. Schoeneich, Ikpokonte A. Enoch

Abstract:

In this paper, subsurface temperature measured from continuous temperature logs were used to determine the geothermal gradient of NigerDelta sedimentary basin. The measured temperatures were corrected to the true subsurface temperatures by applying the American Association of Petroleum Resources (AAPG) correction factor, borehole temperature correction factor with La Max’s correction factor and Zeta Utilities borehole correction factor. Geothermal gradient in this basin ranges from 1.20C to 7.560C/100m. Six geothermal anomalies centres were observed at depth in the southern parts of the Abakaliki anticlinorium around Onitsha, Ihiala, Umuaha area and named A1 to A6 while two more centre appeared at depth of 3500m and 4000m named A7 and A8 respectively. Anomaly A1 describes the southern end of the Abakaliki anticlinorium and extends southwards, anomaly A2 to A5 were found associated with a NW-SE structural alignment of the Calabar hinge line with structures describing the edge of the Niger Delta basin with the basement block of the Oban massif. Anomaly A6 locates in the south-eastern part of the basin offshore while A7 and A8 are located in the south western part of the basin offshore. At the average exploratory depth of 3500m, the geothermal gradient values for these anomalies A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, A6, A7, and A8 are 6.50C/100m, 1.750C/100m, 7.50C/100m, 1.250C/100m, 6.50C/100m, 5.50C/100m, 60C/100m, and 2.250C/100m respectively. Anomaly A8 area may yield higher thermal value at greater depth than 3500m. These results show that anomalies areas of A1, A3, A5, A6 and A7 are potentially prospective and explorable for geothermal energy using abandoned oil wells in the study area. Anomalies A1, A3.A5, A6 occur at areas where drilled boreholes were not exploitable for oil and gas but for the remaining areas where wells are so exploitable there appears no geothermal anomaly. Geothermal energy is environmentally friendly, clean and reversible.

Keywords: temperature logs, geothermal gradient anomalies, alternative energy, Niger delta basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
2557 Stability Analysis of Slopes during Pile Driving

Authors: Yeganeh Attari, Gudmund Reidar Eiksund, Hans Peter Jostad

Abstract:

In Geotechnical practice, there is no standard method recognized by the industry to account for the reduction of safety factor of a slope as an effect of soil displacement and pore pressure build-up during pile installation. Pile driving disturbs causes large strains and generates excess pore pressures in a zone that can extend many diameters from the installed pile, resulting in a decrease of the shear strength of the surrounding soil. This phenomenon may cause slope failure. Moreover, dissipation of excess pore pressure set-up may cause weakening of areas outside the volume of soil remoulded during installation. Because of complex interactions between changes in mean stress and shearing, it is challenging to predict installation induced pore pressure response. Furthermore, it is a complex task to follow the rate and path of pore pressure dissipation in order to analyze slope stability. In cohesive soils it is necessary to implement soil models that account for strain softening in the analysis. In the literature, several cases of slope failure due to pile driving activities have been reported, for instance, a landslide in Gothenburg that resulted in a slope failure destroying more than thirty houses and Rigaud landslide in Quebec which resulted in loss of life. Up to now, several methods have been suggested to predict the effect of pile driving on total and effective stress, pore pressure changes and their effect on soil strength. However, this is still not well understood or agreed upon. In Norway, general approaches applied by geotechnical engineers for this problem are based on old empirical methods with little accurate theoretical background. While the limitations of such methods are discussed, this paper attempts to capture the reduction in the factor of safety of a slope during pile driving, using coupled Finite Element analysis and cavity expansion method. This is demonstrated by analyzing a case of slope failure due to pile driving in Norway.

Keywords: cavity expansion method, excess pore pressure, pile driving, slope failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
2556 Brilliant Candy Consists of Centella asiatica Extract and Soy Milk to Safe Nutrition Child of Indonesia

Authors: Hesti Ghassani, Tessa Septiadi

Abstract:

In the world we live on today, young generation highly influences the future of a nation. We have to concern that the condition of the country in 20 years later depending by the character of young adults these days. Therefore, it is important that we have to support and control the teenagers especially in one of developing countries in which I live in: Indonesia. Indonesia is a home to 240 million people. It diverse in languages, cultures, as well as attitudes. The differences among each individual lead us to think that there is something we have to take care of. It is necessary to pay attention to the nutrition consumed by the nation. We initiate to control the food consumed by young generation as early as a primary students. Nutrition affects the immune of the body, neuron system, and, most importantly brain. One of the nutrition that has to be fulfilled is milk. However, most of the population in Indonesia isn’t aware of the importance of consuming milk as their daily basis. We’ve formed an innovation called the Brilliant Candy which is affordable and rich in nutrition. So that is why the paper made by literature study to solve the problem with effective ways using available resources, practice and cheap. Brilliant Candy consists of Centella asiatica extract mixed with Soy milk. Centella asiatica contains of alkaloid which give the energy to brain and circulate oxygen. Based on the research of Sathya and Ganga, Centella asiatica can increase the intelligence. Indeed, Centella asiatica can relieve stress, and help us in staying focus. Soy milk is a kind of milk which come from extracted soybean. Soybean is rich in flafonoid. It has various advantages for our body. Which can also support child nutrition consumed. Soybean boosts immune system, helps digestive system, and in terms of food, soy bean exists as a source of nutrition. A method to get extraction of Centella asiatica is namely maserasi using ethanol. While making soybean milk with got the pollen of soybean. Both materials get mixed processed into hard candy with congelation of.

Keywords: Indonesia, Centella asiatica, Soy milk, alkaloid, flafonoid

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2555 Comparative Numerical Simulations of Reaction-Coupled Annular and Free-Bubbling Fluidized Beds Performance

Authors: Adefarati Oloruntoba, Yongmin Zhang, Hongliang Xiao

Abstract:

An annular fluidized bed (AFB) is gaining extensive application in the process industry due to its efficient gas-solids contacting. But a direct evaluation of its reaction performance is still lacking. In this paper, comparative 3D Euler–Lagrange multiphase-particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) computations are performed to assess the reaction performance of AFB relative to a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) in an FCC regeneration process. By using the energy-minimization multi-scale (EMMS) drag model with a suitable heterogeneity index, the MP-PIC simulation predicts the typical fountain region in AFB and solids holdup of BFB, which is consistent with an experiment. Coke combustion rate, flue gas and temperature profile are utilized as the performance indicators, while related bed hydrodynamics are explored to account for the different performance under varying superficial gas velocities (0.5 m/s, 0.6 m/s, and 0.7 m/s). Simulation results indicate that the burning rates of coke and its species are relatively the same in both beds, albeit marginal increase in BFB. Similarly, the shape and evolution time of flue gas (CO, CO₂, H₂O and O₂) curves are indistinguishable but match the coke combustion rates. However, AFB has high proclivity to high temperature-gradient as higher gas and solids temperatures are predicted in the freeboard. Moreover, for both beds, the effect of superficial gas velocity is only conspicuous on the temperature but negligible on combustion efficiency and effluent gas emissions due to constant gas volumetric flow rate and bed loading criteria. Cross-flow of solids from the annulus to the spout region as well as the high primary gas in the AFB directly assume the underlying mechanisms for its unique gas-solids hydrodynamics (pressure, solids holdup, velocity, mass flux) and local spatial homogeneity, which in turn influence the reactor performance. Overall, the study portrays AFB as a cheap alternative reactor to BFB for catalyst regeneration.

Keywords: annular fluidized bed, bubbling fluidized bed, coke combustion, flue gas, fountaining, CFD, MP-PIC, hydrodynamics, FCC regeneration

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2554 Predicting Returns Volatilities and Correlations of Stock Indices Using Multivariate Conditional Autoregressive Range and Return Models

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

Abstract:

This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

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2553 Estimating the Traffic Impacts of Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory Systems Using Microsimulation

Authors: C. B. Masera, M. Imprialou, L. Budd, C. Morton

Abstract:

Even though signalised intersections are necessary for urban road traffic management, they can act as bottlenecks and disrupt traffic operations. Interrupted traffic flow causes congestion, delays, stop-and-go conditions (i.e. excessive acceleration/deceleration) and longer journey times. Vehicle and infrastructure connectivity offers the potential to provide improved new services with additional functions of assisting drivers. This paper focuses on one of the applications of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication namely Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA). To assess the effectiveness of GLOSA in the urban road network, an integrated microscopic traffic simulation framework is built into VISSIM software. Vehicle movements and vehicle-infrastructure communications are simulated through the interface of External Driver Model. A control algorithm is developed for recommending an optimal speed that is continuously updated in every time step for all vehicles approaching a signal-controlled point. This algorithm allows vehicles to pass a traffic signal without stopping or to minimise stopping times at a red phase. This study is performed with all connected vehicles at 100% penetration rate. Conventional vehicles are also simulated in the same network as a reference. A straight road segment composed of two opposite directions with two traffic lights per lane is studied. The simulation is implemented under 150 vehicles per hour and 200 per hour traffic volume conditions to identify how different traffic densities influence the benefits of GLOSA. The results indicate that traffic flow is improved by the application of GLOSA. According to this study, vehicles passed through the traffic lights more smoothly, and waiting times were reduced by up to 28 seconds. Average delays decreased for the entire network by 86.46% and 83.84% under traffic densities of 150 vehicles per hour per lane and 200 vehicles per hour per lane, respectively.

Keywords: connected vehicles, GLOSA, intelligent transport systems, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication

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2552 The TarMed Reform of 2014: A Causal Analysis of the Effects on the Behavior of Swiss Physicians

Authors: Camila Plaza, Stefan Felder

Abstract:

In October 2014, the TARMED reform was implemented in Switzerland. In an effort to even out the financial standing of general practitioners (including pediatricians) relative to that of specialists in the outpatient sector, the reform tackled two aspects: on the one hand, GPs would be able to bill an additional 9 CHF per patient, once per consult per day. This is referred to as the surcharge position. As a second measure, it reduced the fees for certain technical services targeted to specialists (e.g., imaging, surgical technical procedures, etc.). Given the fee-for-service reimbursement system in Switzerland, we predict that physicians reacted to the economic incentives of the reform by increasing the consults per patient and decreasing the average amount of time per consult. Within this framework, our treatment group is formed by GPs and our control group by those specialists who were not affected by the reform. Using monthly insurance claims panel data aggregated at the physician praxis level (provided by SASIS AG), for the period of January 2013-December 2015, we run difference in difference panel data models with physician and time fixed effects in order to test for the causal effects of the reform. We account for seasonality, and control for physician characteristics such as age, gender, specialty, and physician experience. Furthermore, we run the models on subgroups of physicians within our sample so as to account for heterogeneity and treatment intensities. Preliminary results support our hypothesis. We find evidence of an increase in consults per patients and a decrease in time per consult. Robustness checks do not significantly alter the results for our outcome variable of consults per patient. However, we do find a smaller effect of the reform for time per consult. Thus, the results of this paper could provide policymakers a better understanding of physician behavior and their sensitivity to financial incentives of reforms (both past and future) under the current reimbursement system.

Keywords: difference in differences, financial incentives, health reform, physician behavior

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2551 Sociolinguistic Aspects and Language Contact, Lexical Consequences in Francoprovençal Settings

Authors: Carmela Perta

Abstract:

In Italy the coexistence of standard language, its varieties and different minority languages - historical and migration languages - has been a way to study language contact in different directions; the focus of most of the studies is either the relations among the languages of the social repertoire, or the study of contact phenomena occurring in a particular structural level. However, studies on contact facts in relation to a given sociolinguistic situation of the speech community are still not present in literature. As regard the language level to investigate from the perspective of contact, it is commonly claimed that the lexicon is the most volatile part of language and most likely to undergo change due to superstrate influence, indeed first lexical features are borrowed, then, under long term cultural pressure, structural features may also be borrowed. The aim of this paper is to analyse language contact in two historical minority communities where Francoprovençal is spoken, in relation to their sociolinguistic situation. In this perspective, firstly lexical borrowings present in speakers’ speech production will be examined, trying to find a possible correlation between this part of the lexicon and informants’ sociolinguistic variables; secondly a possible correlation between a particular community sociolinguistic situation and lexical borrowing will be found. Methods used to collect data are based on the results obtained from 24 speakers in both the villages; the speaker group in the two communities consisted of 3 males and 3 females in each of four age groups, ranging in age from 9 to 85, and then divided into five groups according to their occupations. Speakers were asked to describe a sequence of pictures naming common objects and then describing scenes when they used these objects: they are common objects, frequently pronounced and belonging to semantic areas which are usually resistant and which are thought to survive. A subset of this task, involving 19 items with Italian source is examined here: in order to determine the significance of the independent variables (social factors) on the dependent variable (lexical variation) the statistical package SPSS, particularly the linear regression, was used.

Keywords: borrowing, Francoprovençal, language change, lexicon

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2550 Performance Assessment of Carrier Aggregation-Based Indoor Mobile Networks

Authors: Viktor R. Stoynov, Zlatka V. Valkova-Jarvis

Abstract:

The intelligent management and optimisation of radio resource technologies will lead to a considerable improvement in the overall performance in Next Generation Networks (NGNs). Carrier Aggregation (CA) technology, also known as Spectrum Aggregation, enables more efficient use of the available spectrum by combining multiple Component Carriers (CCs) in a virtual wideband channel. LTE-A (Long Term Evolution–Advanced) CA technology can combine multiple adjacent or separate CCs in the same band or in different bands. In this way, increased data rates and dynamic load balancing can be achieved, resulting in a more reliable and efficient operation of mobile networks and the enabling of high bandwidth mobile services. In this paper, several distinct CA deployment strategies for the utilisation of spectrum bands are compared in indoor-outdoor scenarios, simulated via the recently-developed Realistic Indoor Environment Generator (RIEG). We analyse the performance of the User Equipment (UE) by integrating the average throughput, the level of fairness of radio resource allocation, and other parameters, into one summative assessment termed a Comparative Factor (CF). In addition, comparison of non-CA and CA indoor mobile networks is carried out under different load conditions: varying numbers and positions of UEs. The experimental results demonstrate that the CA technology can improve network performance, especially in the case of indoor scenarios. Additionally, we show that an increase of carrier frequency does not necessarily lead to improved CF values, due to high wall-penetration losses. The performance of users under bad-channel conditions, often located in the periphery of the cells, can be improved by intelligent CA location. Furthermore, a combination of such a deployment and effective radio resource allocation management with respect to user-fairness plays a crucial role in improving the performance of LTE-A networks.

Keywords: comparative factor, carrier aggregation, indoor mobile network, resource allocation

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2549 Action Research for School Development

Authors: Beate Weyland

Abstract:

The interdisciplinary laboratory EDEN, Educational Environments with Nature, born in 2020 at the Faculty of Education of the Free University of Bolzano, is working on a research path initiated in 2012 on the relationship between pedagogy and architecture in the design process of school buildings. Between 2016 and 2018, advisory support activity for schools was born, which combined the need to qualify the physical spaces of the school with the need to update teaching practices and develop school organization with the aim of improving pupils' and teachers' sense of well-being. The goal of accompanying the development of school communities through research-training paths concerns the process of designing together pedagogical-didactic and architectural environments in which to stage the educational relationship, involving professionals from education, educational research, architecture and design, and local administration. Between 2019 and 2024, more than 30 schools and educational communities throughout Italy have entered into research-training agreements with the university, focusing increasingly on the need to create new spaces and teaching methods capable of imagining educational spaces as places of well-being and where cultural development can be presided over. The paper will focus on the presentation of the research path and on the mixed methods used to support schools and educational communities: identification of the research question, development of the research objective, experimentation, and data collection for analysis and reflection. School and educational communities are involved in a participative and active manner. The quality of the action-research work is enriched by a special focus on the relationship with plants and nature in general. Plants are seen as mediators of processes that unhinge traditional didactics and invite teachers, students, parents, and administrators to think about the quality of learning spaces and relationships based on well-being. The contribution is characterized by a particular focus on research methodologies and tools developed together with teachers to answer the issues raised and to measure the impact of the actions undertaken.

Keywords: school development, learning space, wellbeing, plants and nature

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2548 Image Based Landing Solutions for Large Passenger Aircraft

Authors: Thierry Sammour Sawaya, Heikki Deschacht

Abstract:

In commercial aircraft operations, almost half of the accidents happen during approach or landing phases. Automatic guidance and automatic landings have proven to bring significant safety value added for this challenging landing phase. This is why Airbus and ScioTeq have decided to work together to explore the capability of image-based landing solutions as additional landing aids to further expand the possibility to perform automatic approach and landing to runways where the current guiding systems are either not fitted or not optimum. Current systems for automated landing often depend on radio signals provided by airport ground infrastructure on the airport or satellite coverage. In addition, these radio signals may not always be available with the integrity and performance required for safe automatic landing. Being independent from these radio signals would widen the operations possibilities and increase the number of automated landings. Airbus and ScioTeq are joining their expertise in the field of Computer Vision in the European Program called Clean Sky 2 Large Passenger Aircraft, in which they are leading the IMBALS (IMage BAsed Landing Solutions) project. The ultimate goal of this project is to demonstrate, develop, validate and verify a certifiable automatic landing system guiding an airplane during the approach and landing phases based on an onboard camera system capturing images, enabling automatic landing independent from radio signals and without precision instrument for landing. In the frame of this project, ScioTeq is responsible for the development of the Image Processing Platform (IPP), while Airbus is responsible for defining the functional and system requirements as well as the testing and integration of the developed equipment in a Large Passenger Aircraft representative environment. The aim of this paper will be to describe the system as well as the associated methods and tools developed for validation and verification.

Keywords: aircraft landing system, aircraft safety, autoland, avionic system, computer vision, image processing

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2547 A Reading Attempt of the Urban Memory of Jordan University of Science and Technology Campus by Cognitive Mapping

Authors: Bsma Adel Bany Mohammad

Abstract:

The University campuses are a small city containing basic city functions such as educational spaces, accommodations, services and transportation. They are spaces of functional and social life with different activities, different occupants. The campus designed and transformed like cities so both experienced and memorized in same way. Campus memory is the ability of individuals to maintain and reveal the spatial components of designed physical spaces, which form the understandings, experiences, sensations of the environment in all. ‘Cognitive mapping’ is used to decode the physical interaction and emotional relationship between individuals and the city; Cognitive maps are created graphically using geometric and verbal elements on paper by remembering the images of the Urban Environment. In this study, to determine the emotional urban identity belonging to Jordan University of science and technology Campus, architecture students Asked to identify the areas they interact with in the campus by drawing a cognitive map. ‘Campus memory items’ are identified by analyzing the cognitive maps of the campus, then the spatial identity result of such data. The analysis based on the five basic elements of Lynch: paths, districts, edges, nodes, and landmarks. As a result of this analysis, it found that Spatial Identity constructed by the shared elements of the maps. The memory of most students listed the gates structure- which is a large desirable structure, located at the main entrances within the campus defined as major landmarks, then the square spaces defined as nodes, in addition to both stairs and corridors defined as paths. Finally, the districts, edges of educational buildings and service spaces are listed correspondingly in cognitive maps. Findings suggest that the spatial identity of the campus design is related mainly to the gates structures, squares and stairs.

Keywords: cognitive maps, university campus, urban memory, identity

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2546 Investigation of Shear Strength, and Dilative Behavior of Coarse-grained Samples Using Laboratory Test and Machine Learning Technique

Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

Abstract:

Coarse-grained soils are known and commonly used in a wide range of geotechnical projects, including high earth dams or embankments for their high shear strength. The most important engineering property of these soils is friction angle which represents the interlocking between soil particles and can be applied widely in designing and constructing these earth structures. Friction angle and dilative behavior of coarse-grained soils can be estimated from empirical correlations with in-situ testing and physical properties of the soil or measured directly in the laboratory performing direct shear or triaxial tests. Unfortunately, large-scale testing is difficult, challenging, and expensive and is not possible in most soil mechanic laboratories. So, it is common to remove the large particles and do the tests, which cannot be counted as an exact estimation of the parameters and behavior of the original soil. This paper describes a new methodology to simulate particles grading distribution of a well-graded gravel sample to a smaller scale sample as it can be tested in an ordinary direct shear apparatus to estimate the stress-strain behavior, friction angle, and dilative behavior of the original coarse-grained soil considering its confining pressure, and relative density using a machine learning method. A total number of 72 direct shear tests are performed in 6 different sizes, 3 different confining pressures, and 4 different relative densities. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) technique was used to develop an equation in order to predict shear strength and dilative behavior based on the size distribution of coarse-grained soil particles. Also, an uncertainty analysis was performed in order to examine the reliability of the proposed equation.

Keywords: MARS, coarse-grained soil, shear strength, uncertainty analysis

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2545 Volunteers’ Preparedness for Natural Disasters and EVANDE Project

Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Bafa, C. Fassoulas, M. Panoutsopoulou

Abstract:

The role of volunteers in disaster management is of decisive importance and the need of their involvement is well recognized, both for prevention measures and for disaster management. During major catastrophes, whereas professional personnel are outsourced, the role of volunteers is crucial. In Greece experience has shown that various groups operating in the civil protection mechanism like local administration staff or volunteers, in many cases do not have the necessary knowledge and information on best practices to act against natural disasters. One of the major problems is the lack of volunteers’ education and training. In the above given framework, this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of civil protection volunteers in Greece. Furthermore, the implementation of earthquake protection measures at individual, family and working level, are explored. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding pre-earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans in the workplace. The questionnaires were administered to citizens from different regions of the country and who attend the civil protection training program: “Protect Myself and Others”. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self-protective actions; b) existence of emergency planning at home; c) existence of emergency planning at workplace (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills); and, d) respondents` perception about their level of earthquake preparedness. The results revealed a serious lack of knowledge and preparedness among respondents. Taking into consideration the aforementioned gap and in order to raise awareness and improve preparedness and effective response of volunteers acting in civil protection, the EVANDE project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC). The aim of that project is to educate and train civil protection volunteers on the most serious natural disasters, such as forest fires, floods, and earthquakes, and thus, increase their performance.

Keywords: civil protection, earthquake, preparedness, volunteers

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2544 Flow Reproduction Using Vortex Particle Methods for Wake Buffeting Analysis of Bluff Structures

Authors: Samir Chawdhury, Guido Morgenthal

Abstract:

The paper presents a novel extension of Vortex Particle Methods (VPM) where the study aims to reproduce a template simulation of complex flow field that is generated from impulsively started flow past an upstream bluff body at certain Reynolds number Re-Vibration of a structural system under upstream wake flow is often considered its governing design criteria. Therefore, the attention is given in this study especially for the reproduction of wake flow simulation. The basic methodology for the implementation of the flow reproduction requires the downstream velocity sampling from the template flow simulation; therefore, at particular distances from the upstream section the instantaneous velocity components are sampled using a series of square sampling-cells arranged vertically where each of the cell contains four velocity sampling points at its corner. Since the grid free Lagrangian VPM algorithm discretises vorticity on particle elements, the method requires transformation of the velocity components into vortex circulation, and finally the simulation of the reproduction of the template flow field by seeding these vortex circulations or particles into a free stream flow. It is noteworthy that the vortex particles have to be released into the free stream exactly at same rate of velocity sampling. Studies have been done, specifically, in terms of different sampling rates and velocity sampling positions to find their effects on flow reproduction quality. The quality assessments are mainly done, using a downstream flow monitoring profile, by comparing the characteristic wind flow profiles using several statistical turbulence measures. Additionally, the comparisons are performed using velocity time histories, snapshots of the flow fields, and the vibration of a downstream bluff section by performing wake buffeting analyses of the section under the original and reproduced wake flows. Convergence study is performed for the validation of the method. The study also describes the possibilities how to achieve flow reproductions with less computational effort.

Keywords: vortex particle method, wake flow, flow reproduction, wake buffeting analysis

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2543 Adopting Structured Mini Writing Retreats as a Tool for Undergraduate Researchers

Authors: Clare Cunningham

Abstract:

Whilst there is a strong global research base on the benefits of structured writing retreats and similar provisions, such as Shut Up and Write events, for academic staff and postgraduate researchers, very little has been published about the worth of such events for undergraduate students. This is despite the fact that, internationally, undergraduate student researchers experience similar pressures, distractions and feelings towards writing as those who are at more senior levels within the academy. This paper reports on a mixed-methods study with cohorts of third-year undergraduate students over the course of four academic years. This involved a range of research instruments adopted over the four years of the study. They include the administration of four questionnaires across three academic years, a collection of ethnographic recordings in the second year, and the collation of reflective journal entries and evaluations from all four years. The final two years of data collection took place during the period of Covid-19 restrictions when writing retreats moved to the virtual space which adds an additional dimension of interest to the analysis. The analysis involved the collation of quantitative questionnaire data to observe patterns in expressions of attitudes towards writing. Qualitative data were analysed thematically and used to corroborate and support the quantitative data when appropriate. The resulting data confirmed that one of the biggest challenges for undergraduate students mirrors those reported in the findings of studies focused on more experienced researchers. This is not surprising, especially given the number of undergraduate students who now work alongside their studies, as well as the increasing number who have caring responsibilities, but it has, as yet, been under-reported. The data showed that the groups of writing retreat participants all had very positive experiences, with accountability, a sense of community and procrastination avoidance some of the key aspects. The analysis revealed the sometimes transformative power of these events for a number of these students in terms of changing the way they viewed writing and themselves as writers. The data presented in this talk will support the proposal that retreats should much more widely be offered to undergraduate students across the world.

Keywords: academic writing, students, undergraduates, writing retreat

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2542 Remote Sensing of Aerated Flows at Large Dams: Proof of Concept

Authors: Ahmed El Naggar, Homyan Saleh

Abstract:

Dams are crucial for flood control, water supply, and the creation of hydroelectric power. Every dam has a water conveyance system, such as a spillway, providing the safe discharge of catastrophic floods when necessary. Spillway design has historically been investigated in laboratory research owing to the absence of suitable full-scale flow monitoring equipment and safety problems. Prototype measurements of aerated flows are urgently needed to quantify projected scale effects and provide missing validation data for design guidelines and numerical simulations. In this work, an image-based investigation of free-surface flows on a tiered spillway was undertaken at the laboratory (fixed camera installation) and prototype size (drone video) (drone footage) (drone footage). The drone videos were generated using data from citizen science. Analyses permitted the measurement of the free-surface aeration inception point, air-water surface velocities, fluctuations, and residual energy at the chute's downstream end from a remote site. The prototype observations offered full-scale proof of concept, while laboratory results were efficiently confirmed against invasive phase-detection probe data. This paper stresses the efficacy of image-based analyses at prototype spillways. It highlights how citizen science data may enable academics better understand real-world air-water flow dynamics and offers a framework for a small collection of long-missing prototype data.

Keywords: remote sensing, aerated flows, large dams, proof of concept, dam spillways, air-water flows, prototype operation, remote sensing, inception point, optical flow, turbulence, residual energy

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2541 Development of a Computer Aided Diagnosis Tool for Brain Tumor Extraction and Classification

Authors: Fathi Kallel, Abdulelah Alabd Uljabbar, Abdulrahman Aldukhail, Abdulaziz Alomran

Abstract:

The brain is an important organ in our body since it is responsible about the majority actions such as vision, memory, etc. However, different diseases such as Alzheimer and tumors could affect the brain and conduct to a partial or full disorder. Regular diagnosis are necessary as a preventive measure and could help doctors to early detect a possible trouble and therefore taking the appropriate treatment, especially in the case of brain tumors. Different imaging modalities are proposed for diagnosis of brain tumor. The powerful and most used modality is the Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). MRI images are analyzed by doctor in order to locate eventual tumor in the brain and describe the appropriate and needed treatment. Diverse image processing methods are also proposed for helping doctors in identifying and analyzing the tumor. In fact, a large Computer Aided Diagnostic (CAD) tools including developed image processing algorithms are proposed and exploited by doctors as a second opinion to analyze and identify the brain tumors. In this paper, we proposed a new advanced CAD for brain tumor identification, classification and feature extraction. Our proposed CAD includes three main parts. Firstly, we load the brain MRI. Secondly, a robust technique for brain tumor extraction is proposed. This technique is based on both Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). DWT is characterized by its multiresolution analytic property, that’s why it was applied on MRI images with different decomposition levels for feature extraction. Nevertheless, this technique suffers from a main drawback since it necessitates a huge storage and is computationally expensive. To decrease the dimensions of the feature vector and the computing time, PCA technique is considered. In the last stage, according to different extracted features, the brain tumor is classified into either benign or malignant tumor using Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm. A CAD tool for brain tumor detection and classification, including all above-mentioned stages, is designed and developed using MATLAB guide user interface.

Keywords: MRI, brain tumor, CAD, feature extraction, DWT, PCA, classification, SVM

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2540 Enhancement of Long Term Peak Demand Forecast in Peninsular Malaysia Using Hourly Load Profile

Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

Abstract:

The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

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2539 Battling the Final Stages of Genocide in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Denial and Triumphalism

Authors: Ehlimana Memisevic

Abstract:

Genocide denial is considered the final stage of genocide, which in the words of Gregory H. Stanton, represents "one of the most certain indicators of future genocides”. Genocide denial in Bosnia and Herzegovina started in 1992, almost simultaneously with the genocide itself. Over the course of the three decades, different forms of genocide and war crimes denial have been developed by state officials, politicians, journalists, and civilians, both in Republika Srpska – the Serb-dominated entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina – and Serbia. Moreover, genocide and war crimes are not only denied but also glorified and celebrated, which was described as "triumphalism" by the Australian-Bosnian scholar Hariz Halilovich who suggested it be added as the 11th phase of Gregory Stanton's "10 stages of genocide." Since 2007, there have been a number of attempts to criminalize genocide denial at the state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, all of them were unsuccessful due to the opposition of representatives of Republika Srpska. On July 23, 2021, the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Valentin Inzko, used his power as the final authority in overseeing the civil implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords to impose amendments to Bosnia and Herzegovina's criminal code to ban the denial and glorification of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. However, immediately after the OHR's decision was announced, Milorad Dodik, a Serb member of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, held a press conference, publicly denied the genocide, and announced that this law would never be accepted in Republika Srpska. Denial remains explicit and public and is promulgated through official channels in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper will analyze the forms of genocide and other war crimes denial and glorification in the period after the amendments to the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina were introduced, which include incrimination of public condoning, denial, gross trivialization or justification of a crime of genocide, crimes against humanity or a war crime established by a final adjudication of the international and domestic courts. We aim to determine the effect of the imposed law and the impact of the denial committed by high-ranking public officials on the denial and celebration of genocide and war crimes committed by ordinary citizens.

Keywords: genocide, denial, triumphalism, incrimination

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