Search results for: demand estimate
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4935

Search results for: demand estimate

2565 Risk Assessment and Management Using Machine Learning Models

Authors: Lagnajeet Mohanty, Mohnish Mishra, Pratham Tapdiya, Himanshu Sekhar Nayak, Swetapadma Singh

Abstract:

In the era of global interconnectedness, effective risk assessment and management are critical for organizational resilience. This review explores the integration of machine learning (ML) into risk processes, examining its transformative potential and the challenges it presents. The literature reveals ML's success in sectors like consumer credit, demonstrating enhanced predictive accuracy, adaptability, and potential cost savings. However, ethical considerations, interpretability issues, and the demand for skilled practitioners pose limitations. Looking forward, the study identifies future research scopes, including refining ethical frameworks, advancing interpretability techniques, and fostering interdisciplinary collaborations. The synthesis of limitations and future directions highlights the dynamic landscape of ML in risk management, urging stakeholders to navigate challenges innovatively. This abstract encapsulates the evolving discourse on ML's role in shaping proactive and effective risk management strategies in our interconnected and unpredictable global landscape.

Keywords: machine learning, risk assessment, ethical considerations, financial inclusion

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2564 Characterization and Quantification of Relatives Amounts of Phosphorylated Glucosyl Residues in C6 and C3 Position in Banana Starch Granules by 31P-NMR

Authors: Renata Shitakubo, Hanyu Yangcheng, Jay-lin Jane, Fernanda Peroni Okita, Beatriz Cordenunsi

Abstract:

In the degradation transitory starch model, the enzymatic activity of glucan/water dikinase (GWD) and phosphoglucan/water dikinase (PWD) are essential for the granule degradation. GWD and PWD phosphorylate glucose molecules in the positions C6 and C3, respectively, in the amylopectin chains. This action is essential to allow that β-amylase degrade starch granules without previous action of α-amylase. During banana starch degradation, as part of banana ripening, both α- and β-amylases activities and proteins were already detected and, it is also known that there is a GWD and PWD protein bounded to the starch granule. Therefore, the aim of this study was to quantify both Gluc-6P and Gluc-3P in order to estimate the importance of the GWD-PWD-β-amylase pathway in banana starch degradation. Starch granules were isolated as described by Peroni-Okita et al (Carbohydrate Polymers, 81:291-299, 2010), from banana fruit at different stages of ripening, green (20.7%), intermediate (18.2%) and ripe (6.2%). Total phosphorus content was determinate following the Smith and Caruso method (1964). Gluc-6P and Gluc-3P quantifications were performed as described by Lim et al (Cereal Chemistry, 71(5):488-493, 1994). Total phosphorous content in green banana starch is found as 0.009%, intermediary banana starch 0.006% and ripe banana starch 0.004%, both by the colorimetric method and 31P-NMR. The NMR analysis showed the phosphorus content in C6 and C3. The results by NMR indicate that the amylopectin is phosphorylate by GWD and PWD before the bananas become ripen. Since both the total content of phosphorus and phosphorylated glucose molecules at positions C3 and C6 decrease with the starch degradation, it can be concluded that this phosphorylation occurs only in the surface of the starch granule and before the fruit be harvested.

Keywords: starch, GWD, PWD, 31P-NMR

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2563 Enhanced Cluster Based Connectivity Maintenance in Vehicular Ad Hoc Network

Authors: Manverpreet Kaur, Amarpreet Singh

Abstract:

The demand of Vehicular ad hoc networks is increasing day by day, due to offering the various applications and marvelous benefits to VANET users. Clustering in VANETs is most important to overcome the connectivity problems of VANETs. In this paper, we proposed a new clustering technique Enhanced cluster based connectivity maintenance in vehicular ad hoc network. Our objective is to form long living clusters. The proposed approach is grouping the vehicles, on the basis of the longest list of neighbors to form clusters. The cluster formation and cluster head selection process done by the RSU that may results it reduces the chances of overhead on to the network. The cluster head selection procedure is the vehicle which has closest speed to average speed will elect as a cluster Head by the RSU and if two vehicles have same speed which is closest to average speed then they will be calculate by one of the new parameter i.e. distance to their respective destination. The vehicle which has largest distance to their destination will be choosing as a cluster Head by the RSU. Our simulation outcomes show that our technique performs better than the existing technique.

Keywords: VANETs, clustering, connectivity, cluster head, intelligent transportation system (ITS)

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2562 Hidden Markov Model for Financial Limit Order Book and Its Application to Algorithmic Trading Strategy

Authors: Sriram Kashyap Prasad, Ionut Florescu

Abstract:

This study models the intraday asset prices as driven by Markov process. This work identifies the latent states of the Hidden Markov model, using limit order book data (trades and quotes) to continuously estimate the states throughout the day. This work builds a trading strategy using estimated states to generate signals. The strategy utilizes current state to recalibrate buy/ sell levels and the transition between states to trigger stop-loss when adverse price movements occur. The proposed trading strategy is tested on the Stevens High Frequency Trading (SHIFT) platform. SHIFT is a highly realistic market simulator with functionalities for creating an artificial market simulation by deploying agents, trading strategies, distributing initial wealth, etc. In the implementation several assets on the NASDAQ exchange are used for testing. In comparison to a strategy with static buy/ sell levels, this study shows that the number of limit orders that get matched and executed can be increased. Executing limit orders earns rebates on NASDAQ. The system can capture jumps in the limit order book prices, provide dynamic buy/sell levels and trigger stop loss signals to improve the PnL (Profit and Loss) performance of the strategy.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, Hidden Markov model, high frequency trading, limit order book learning

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2561 Agroforestry Systems: A Sustainable Strategy of the Agricultural Systems of Cumaral (Meta), Colombia

Authors: Amanda Silva Parra, Dayra Yisel García Ramirez

Abstract:

In developing countries, agricultural "modernization" has led to a loss of biodiversity and inefficiency of agricultural systems, manifested in increases in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) and the C footprint, generating the susceptibility of systems agriculture to environmental problems, loss of biodiversity, depletion of natural resources, soil degradation and loss of nutrients, and a decrease in the supply of products that affect food security for peoples and nations. Each year agriculture emits 10 to 12% (5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO2eq per year) of the total estimated GHG emissions (51 Gt CO2 eq per year). The FAO recommends that countries that have not yet done so consider declaring sustainable agriculture as an essential or strategic activity of public interest within the framework of green economies to better face global climate change. The objective of this research was to estimate the balance of GHG in agricultural systems of Cumaral, Meta (Colombia), to contribute to the recovery and sustainable operation of agricultural systems that guarantee food security and face changes generated by the climate in a more intelligent way. To determine the GHG balances, the IPCC methodologies were applied with a Tier 1 and 2 level of use. It was estimated that all the silvopastoral systems evaluated play an important role in this reconversion compared to conventional systems such as improved pastures. and degraded pastures due to their ability to capture C both in soil and in biomass, generating positive GHG balances, guaranteeing greater sustainability of soil and air resources.

Keywords: climate change, carbon capture, environmental sustainability, GHG mitigation, silvopastoral systems

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2560 The Conceptual Design Model of an Automated Supermarket

Authors: V. Sathya Narayanan, P. Sidharth, V. R. Sanal Kumar

Abstract:

The success of any retail business is predisposed by its swift response and its knack in understanding the constraints and the requirements of customers. In this paper a conceptual design model of an automated customer-friendly supermarket has been proposed. In this model a 10-sided, space benefited, regular polygon shaped gravity shelves have been designed for goods storage and effective customer-specific algorithms have been built-in for quick automatic delivery of the randomly listed goods. The algorithm is developed with two main objectives, viz., delivery time and priority. For meeting these objectives the randomly listed items are reorganized according to the critical-path of the robotic arm specific to the identified shop and its layout and the items are categorized according to the demand, shape, size, similarity and nature of the product for an efficient pick-up, packing and delivery process. We conjectured that the proposed automated supermarket model reduces business operating costs with much customer satisfaction warranting a win-win situation.

Keywords: automated supermarket, electronic shopping, polygon-shaped rack, shortest path algorithm for shopping

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2559 Characterization and Selection of Phosphorus Deficiency Tolerant Genotypes in Nigeria Based on Morpho-Physiologic Traits

Authors: Umego Chukwudi T., Ntui Valentine O., Uyoh Edak A.

Abstract:

Phosphorus (P) deficiency has been identified as a major hindrance to rice production the world over. Eleven (11) rice genotypes predominantly used by local farmers in Nigeria were studied for their responses to P deficient conditions. The characterization was based on morpho-physiologic parameters. The genotypes were screened using a hydroponic system in a modified Hoagland’s solution. Morphological and physiologic parameters, including Plant height (PH), number of tillers per plant, shoot dry weight (SDW), shoot phosphate concentration (SPC), and chlorophyll content, were recorded after exposure to three levels of phosphate concentration (0µM, 400 µM, and 800 µM). The data obtained were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the means were separated using least significance difference tests. The results obtained showed that P starvation caused a significant (p≤0.05) reduction in PH, SDW, and tillering and also triggered a significant (p≤0.05) increase in root length among the genotypes. The Pearsons correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationships among studied parameters, and a significant negative correlation was observed between plant height and root length. FARO63 was identified as a highly tolerant genotype to P deficiency with a low (0.24) SPC and higher (4.81) phosphate utilization efficiency (PUE). This study has identified FARO63 as a true tolerant genotype to Phosphate deficiency, which will be useful in breeding for phosphate deficiency tolerance in rice and thus combating food insecurity.

Keywords: phosphate deficiency, rice genotypes, hydroponic system, food security

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2558 A Mini-Review on Effect of Magnetic Field and Material on Combustion Engines

Authors: A. N. Santhosh, Vinay Hegde, S. Vinod Kumar, R. Giria, D. L. Rakesh, M. S. Raghu

Abstract:

At present, research on automobile engineering is in high demand, particularly in the field of fuel combustion. A large number of fossil fuels are being used in combustion, which may get exhausted in the near future and are not economical. To this end, research on the use of magnetic material in combustion engines is in progress to enhance the efficiency of fuel. The present review describes the chemical, physical and mathematical theory behind the magnetic materials along with the working principle of the internal combustion engine. The effect of different magnets like ferrite magnet, Neodymium magnet, and electromagnets was discussed. The effect of magnetic field on the consumption of the fuel, brake thermal efficiency, carbon monoxide, Oxides of Nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and hydrocarbon emission, along with smoke density, have been discussed in detail. Detailed mathematical modelling that shows the effect of magnetic field on fuel combustion is elaborated. Required pictorial representations are included wherever necessary. This review article could serve as a base for studying the effect of magnetic materials on IC engines.

Keywords: magnetic field, energizer, fuel conditioner, fuel consumption, emission reduction

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2557 Analysis of Economic Order Quantity, Safety Stock, Maximum Inventory Control, Lot Size and Reorder Point for Engro Polymers and Chemicals

Authors: Ali Akber Jaffri, Asad Naseem, Javeria Khan, Zubair Hamza, Ishtiaq

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to determine safety stock, maximum inventory level, reordering point, and reordering quantity by rearranging lot sizes for supplier and customer in MRO (maintenance repair operations) warehouse of Engro Polymers & Chemicals. To achieve the aim, physical analysis method and excel commands were carried out to elicit the customer and supplier data provided by the company. Initially, we rearranged the current lot sizes and MOUs (measure of units) in SAP software. Due to change in lot sizes, we have to determine the new quantities for safety stock, maximum inventory, reordering point and reordering quantity as per company's demand. By proposed system, we saved extra cost in terms of reducing time of receiving from vendor and in issuance to customer, ease of material handling in MRO warehouse and also reduce human efforts.

Keywords: maintenance repair operation, maximum inventory, reorder quantity, safety stock

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2556 Petrophysical Interpretation of Unconventional Shale Reservoir Naokelekan in Ajeel Oil-Gas Field

Authors: Abeer Tariq, Mohammed S. Aljawad, Khaldoun S. Alfarisi

Abstract:

This paper aimed to estimate the petrophysical properties (porosity, permeability, and fluid saturation) of the Ajeel well (Aj-1) Shale reservoir. Petrophysical properties of the Naokelekan Formation at Ajeel field are determined from the interpretation of open hole log data of one well which penetrated the source rock reservoir. However, depending on these properties, it is possible to divide the Formation which has a thickness of approximately 28-34 m, into three lithological units: A is the upper unit (thickness about 9 to 13 m) consisting of dolomitized limestones; B is a middle unit (thickness about 13 to 20 m) which is composed of dolomitic limestone, and C is a lower unit (>22 m thick) which consists of shale-rich and dolomitic limestones. The results showed that the average formation water resistivity for the formation (Rw = 0.024), the average resistivity of the mud filtration (Rmf = 0.46), and the Archie parameters were determined by the picket plot method, where (m) value equal to 1.86, (n) value equal to 2 and (a) value equal to 1. Also, this reservoir proved to be economical for future developments to increase the production rate of the field by dealing with challenging reservoirs. In addition, Porosity values and water saturation Sw were calculated along with the depth of the composition using Interactive Petrophysics (IP) V4.5 software. The interpretation of the computer process (CPI) showed that the better porous zone holds the highest amount of hydrocarbons in the second and third zone. From the flow zone indicator FZI method, there are two rock types in the studied reservoir.

Keywords: petrophysical properties, porosity, permeability, ajeel field, Naokelekan formation, Jurassic sequences, carbonate reservoir, source rock

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2555 Households’ Willingness to Pay for Watershed Management Practices in Lake Hawassa Watershed, Southern Ethiopia

Authors: Mulugeta Fola, Mengistu Ketema, Kumilachew Alamerie

Abstract:

Watershed provides vast economic benefits within and beyond the management area of interest. But most watersheds in Ethiopia are increasingly facing the threats of degradation due to both natural and man-made causes. To reverse these problems, communities’ participation in sustainable management programs is among the necessary measures. Hence, this study assessed the households’ willingness to pay for watershed management practices through a contingent valuation study approach. Double bounded dichotomous choice with open-ended follow-up format was used to elicit the households’ willingness to pay. Based on data collected from 275 randomly selected households, descriptive statistics results indicated that most households (79.64%) were willing to pay for watershed management practices. A bivariate Probit model was employed to identify determinants of households’ willingness to pay and estimate mean willingness to pay. Its result shows that age, gender, income, livestock size, perception of watershed degradation, social position, and offered bids were important variables affecting willingness to pay for watershed management practices. The study also revealed that the mean willingness to pay for watershed management practices was calculated to be 58.41 Birr and 47.27 Birr per year from the double bounded and open-ended format, respectively. The study revealed that the aggregate welfare gains from watershed management practices were calculated to be 931581.09 Birr and 753909.23 Birr per year from double bounded dichotomous choice and open-ended format, respectively. Therefore, the policymakers should make households to pay for the services of watershed management practices in the study area.

Keywords: bivariate probit model, contingent valuation, watershed management practices, willingness to pay

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2554 Tourism in the Information Age

Authors: Suleyman Karacor

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to investigate tourism marketing in the information age because of the importance and sensitivity. In the twenty-first century as a result of today's the increasing competition and product diversification in the tourism sector, tourism businesses must take into account exogenous variables such as new technological developments, commercial experience and consumer demand. In the information age, tourist product consumers tend to reserve their leisure time and expenditure on more active opportunities for different experiences instead of living the same experience again. Increasing the number of agents in the tourism sector, travel opportunities offering different experiences and more intensive use of modern technology helps to present diversification of leisure activities for tourists. From the perspective of tourists, travel costs are still important for buying the touristic products but maintaining a high level of tourist satisfaction is also of increasing importance. Tourists tend to prefer activities that add value. A real tourist product must be able to create value and new priorities for tourists. Therefore this study aims to review recent significant developments in international tourism marketing research and practices. To this end, this study reviews tourism marketing-focused articles.

Keywords: information age, tourism marketing, tourism marketing mix, management

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2553 Bottom-up Quantification of Mega Inter-Basin Water Transfer Vulnerability to Climate Change

Authors: Enze Zhang

Abstract:

Large numbers of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are constructed or proposed all around the world as solutions to water distribution and supply problems. Nowadays, as climate change warms the atmosphere, alters the hydrologic cycle, and perturbs water availability, large scale IBWTs which are sensitive to these water-related changes may carry significant risk. Given this reality, IBWTs have elicited great controversy and assessments of vulnerability to climate change are urgently needed worldwide. In this paper, we consider the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) in China as a case study, and introduce a bottom-up vulnerability assessment framework. Key hazards and risks related to climate change that threaten future water availability for the SNWTP are firstly identified. Then a performance indicator is presented to quantify the vulnerability of IBWT by taking three main elements (i.e., sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree) into account. A probabilistic Budyko model is adapted to estimate water availability responses to a wide range of possibilities for future climate conditions in each region of the study area. After bottom-up quantifying the vulnerability based on the estimated water availability, our findings confirm that SNWTP would greatly alleviate geographical imbalances in water availability under some moderate climate change scenarios but raises questions about whether it is a long-term solution because the donor basin has a high level of vulnerability due to extreme climate change.

Keywords: vulnerability, climate change, inter-basin water transfer, bottom-up

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2552 Using Automated Agents to Facilitate Instructions in a Large Online Course

Authors: David M Gilstrap

Abstract:

In an online course with a large enrollment, the potential exists for the instructor to become overburdened with having to respond to students’ emails, which consequently decreases the instructor’s efficiency in teaching the course. Repetition of instructions is an effective way of reducing confusion among students, which in turn increases their efficiencies, as well. World of Turf is the largest online course at Michigan State University, which employs Brightspace as its management system (LMS) software. Recently, the LMS upgraded its capabilities to utilize agents, which are auto generated email notifications to students based on certain criteria. Agents are additional tools that can enhance course design. They can be run on-demand or according to a schedule. Agents can be timed to effectively remind students of approaching deadlines. The content of these generated emails can also include reinforced instructions. With a large online course, even a small percentage of students that either do not read or do not comprehend the course syllabus or do not notice instructions on course pages can result in numerous emails to the instructor, often near the deadlines for assignments. Utilizing agents to decrease the number of emails from students has enabled the instructor to efficiently instruct more than one thousand students per semester without any graduate student teaching assistants.

Keywords: agents, Brightspace, large enrollment, learning management system, repetition of instructions

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2551 Islamic Banks and the Most Important Contemporary Challenges

Authors: Mahmood Mohammed Abdulsattar Aljumaili

Abstract:

Praise be to Allah and peace and blessings be upon the Messenger of Allah. Islamic banks have not only made a lot of great achievements in a short period, but they imposed themselves in the global market, not to mention the transformation of some conventional interest-based banks to Islamic banks to the large demand on them, this transformation has pushed the Dow Jones Global Foundation to develop a new economic indicator released it (the Dow Jones Islamic market) for those who wish to invest in Islamic financial institutions. The success of Islamic financial institutions today face significant and serious challenges, that embody the serious consequences created by the current events on Islamic banking industry. This modest study, deals with these serious challenges facing the Islamic banking industry, and reflected on the success recorded in the previous period. The study deals with four main topics: The emergence of Islamic banks, the goals of Islamic banks, International challenges facing Islamic banks, internal challenges facing Islamic banks, and finally it touches on, (Basel 1-2) Agreement and its implications for Islamic banks.

Keywords: Islamic banks, Basel 1-2 agreement, most important contemporary challenges, islamic banking industry, Dow Jones Islamic market

Procedia PDF Downloads 480
2550 Diagnostic Value of Different Noninvasive Criteria of Latent Myocarditis in Comparison with Myocardial Biopsy

Authors: Olga Blagova, Yuliya Osipova, Evgeniya Kogan, Alexander Nedostup

Abstract:

Purpose: to quantify the value of various clinical, laboratory and instrumental signs in the diagnosis of myocarditis in comparison with morphological studies of the myocardium. Methods: in 100 patients (65 men, 44.7±12.5 years) with «idiopathic» arrhythmias (n = 20) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM, n = 80) were performed 71 endomyocardial biopsy (EMB), 13 intraoperative biopsy, 5 study of explanted hearts, 11 autopsy with virus investigation (real-time PCR) of the blood and myocardium. Anti-heart antibodies (AHA) were also measured as well as cardiac CT (n = 45), MRI (n = 25), coronary angiography (n = 47). The comparison group included of 50 patients (25 men, 53.7±11.7 years) with non-inflammatory heart diseases who underwent open heart surgery. Results. Active/borderline myocarditis was diagnosed in 76.0% of the study group and in 21.6% of patients of the comparison group (p < 0.001). The myocardial viral genome was observed more frequently in patients of comparison group than in study group (group (65.0% and 40.2%; p < 0.01. Evaluated the diagnostic value of noninvasive markers of myocarditis. The panel of anti-heart antibodies had the greatest importance to identify myocarditis: sensitivity was 81.5%, positive and negative predictive value was 75.0 and 60.5%. It is defined diagnostic value of non-invasive markers of myocarditis and diagnostic algorithm providing an individual assessment of the likelihood of myocarditis is developed. Conclusion. The greatest significance in the diagnosis of latent myocarditis in patients with 'idiopathic' arrhythmias and DCM have AHA. The use of complex of noninvasive criteria allows estimate the probability of myocarditis and determine the indications for EMB.

Keywords: myocarditis, "idiopathic" arrhythmias, dilated cardiomyopathy, endomyocardial biopsy, viral genome, anti-heart antibodies

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2549 Family, Neighbourhood and Psychosocial Environmental Factors and Their Association with Asthma in Australia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: K. M. Shahunja, Peter D. Sly, Tahmina Begum, Tuhin Biswas, Abdullah Mamun

Abstract:

Background: Various associations between different environmental exposures and asthma have been reported in different countries and populations. We aimed to investigate the associations between family, neighbourhood, and psychosocial environmental factors and asthma in Australia by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We analysed the primary research studies conducted in Australia across multiple databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus, and published between 2000 and 2020. The reviews and analyses focused on the overall association of different environmental exposures with the development or exacerbation of asthma symptoms or asthma-related hospital visits. Quality-effect meta-analysis was done to estimate the pooled odds ratio for different environmental exposures for asthma symptoms. Findings: Among the 4,799 unique published articles found, 46 were included here for systematic review and 28 for meta-analysis. Our review found that psychosocial factors, including low socioeconomic condition, maternal depression, mental stress, ethnicity, and discrimination, are associated with asthma symptoms. Pooled analysis was conducted on family and neighbourhood environmental factors and revealed that environmental tobacco smoking (ETS) (OR 1·69, 95% CI 1·19–2.38), synthetic bedding (OR 1·91, 95% CI 1·48–2·47) and gas heaters (OR 1·40, 95% CI 1·12–1·76) had significant overall associations with asthma-symptoms in Australia. Conclusion: Although the studies were heterogeneous, both systematic review and meta-analysis found several psychosocial and family environmental exposures to be significantly associated with asthma symptoms. Further study to identify their causal relationship and modification may reduce asthma symptoms in the Australian population.

Keywords: asthma, Australia, environment, systematic review

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2548 Cognitive eTransformation Framework for Education Sector

Authors: A. Hol

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21st century brought waves of business and industry eTransformations. The impact of change is also being seen in education. To identify the extent of this, scenario analysis methodology was utilised with the aim to assess business transformations across industry sectors ranging from craftsmanship, medicine, finance and manufacture to innovations and adoptions of new technologies and business models. Firstly, scenarios were drafted based on the current eTransformation models and its dimensions. Following this, eTransformation framework was utilised with the aim to derive the key eTransformation parameters, the essential characteristics that have enabled eTransformations across the sectors. Following this, identified key parameters were mapped to the transforming domain-education. The mapping assisted in deriving a cognitive eTransformation framework for education sector. The framework highlights the importance of context and the notion that education today needs not only to deliver content to students but it also needs to be able to meet the dynamically changing demands of specific student and industry groups. Furthermore, it pinpoints that for such processes to be supported, specific technology is required, so that instant, on demand and periodic feedback as well as flexible, dynamically expanding study content can be sought and received via multiple education mediums.

Keywords: education sector, business transformation, eTransformation model, cognitive model, cognitive systems, eTransformation

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2547 The Long-Term Impact of Health Conditions on Social Mobility Outcomes: A Modelling Study

Authors: Lise Retat, Maria Carmen Huerta, Laura Webber, Franco Sassi

Abstract:

Background: Intra-generational social mobility (ISM) can be defined as the extent to which individuals change their socio-economic position over a period of time or during their entire life course. The relationship between poor health and ISM is established. Therefore, quantifying the impact that potential health policies have on ISM now and into the future would provide evidence for how social inequality could be reduced. This paper takes the condition of overweight and obesity as an example and estimates the mean earning change per individual if the UK were to introduce policies to effectively reduce overweight and obesity. Methods: The HealthLumen individual-based model was used to estimate the impact of obesity on social mobility measures, such as earnings, occupation, and wealth. The HL tool models each individual's probability of experiencing downward ISM as a result of their overweight and obesity status. For example, one outcome of interest was the cumulative mean earning per person of implementing a policy which would reduce adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030 in the UK. Results: Preliminary analysis showed that by reducing adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030, the cumulative additional mean earnings would be ~1,000 Euro per adult by 2030. Additional analysis will include other social mobility indicators. Conclusions: These projections are important for illustrating the role of health in social mobility and for providing evidence for how health policy can make a difference to social mobility outcomes and, in turn, help to reduce inequality.

Keywords: modelling, social mobility, obesity, health

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2546 China's Middle East Policy and the Competition with the United States

Authors: Shabnam Dadparvar, Laijin Shen

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This paper focuses on China’s policy in the Middle East and the rivalry with the U.S. The question is that what are the main factors on China’s Middle East policy and its competition with the U.S? The hypothesis regards to three effective factors: 'China’s energy dependency' on the Middle East, 'economy' and support for 'stability' in the Middle East. What is important in China’s competition with the U.S regarding to its Middle East policy is the substantial difference in ways of treating the countries of the region; China is committed to Westphalia model based on non-interference in internal affairs of the countries and respect the sovereignty of the governments. However, after 9/11, the U.S is seeking a balance between stability and change through intervention in the international affairs and in some cases is looking for a regime change. From the other hand, China, due to its dependency on the region’s energy welcomes America’s military presence in the region for providing stability. The authors by using a descriptive analytical method try to explain the situation of rivalry between China and the United States in Middle East. China is an 'emerging power' with high economic growth and in demand of more energy supply. The problem is that a rising power in the region is often a source of concern for hegemony.

Keywords: China's foreign policy, energy, hegemony, the Middle East

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2545 Motherhood Managerial in Health Services: Need Eustress Internalization

Authors: Retty Ratnawati, Santi Sri Wulandari, Tulus Sabrina

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Feminine and masculine gender role stress could occur in some work situation. Being manager in health services that is known to be more women’ role in Indonesia, has expected to have feminine stereotype role. In the communities, this has been done in the program kesejahteraan keluarga (welfare family program) since the 1970s, for example through family planning program. The aim of the study was to explore the experience of being a motherhood managerial in health services. Our auto ethnographic study has revealed that motherhood managerial, even though running by a woman, could have some stress conditions whether she has realized or has not. The challenge would occur when the manager did not realize that she needed the eustress. The autonomy concept for a woman to be a manager could be a complex cycle that needs open communication continually and understanding the four elements surround her life. In conclusion, there is a demand to have the eustress when the manager does not realize that she has to be an autonomy person. However, it does not need eustress when the manager understands about how to deal with the complex cycle of being autonomy.

Keywords: motherhood managerial, eustress, feminine gender role stress, masculine gender role stress, autonomy concept in women

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2544 Combination of Modelling and Environmental Life Cycle Assessment Approach for Demand Driven Biogas Production

Authors: Juan A. Arzate, Funda C. Ertem, M. Nicolas Cruz-Bournazou, Peter Neubauer, Stefan Junne

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— One of the biggest challenges the world faces today is global warming that is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) coming from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation. In order to mitigate climate change, the European Union has committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80–95% below the level of the 1990s by the year 2050. Renewable technologies are vital to diminish energy-related GHG emissions. Since water and biomass are limited resources, the largest contributions to renewable energy (RE) systems will have to come from wind and solar power. Nevertheless, high proportions of fluctuating RE will present a number of challenges, especially regarding the need to balance the variable energy demand with the weather dependent fluctuation of energy supply. Therefore, biogas plants in this content would play an important role, since they are easily adaptable. Feedstock availability varies locally or seasonally; however there is a lack of knowledge in how biogas plants should be operated in a stable manner by local feedstock. This problem may be prevented through suitable control strategies. Such strategies require the development of convenient mathematical models, which fairly describe the main processes. Modelling allows us to predict the system behavior of biogas plants when different feedstocks are used with different loading rates. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a technique for analyzing several sides from evolution of a product till its disposal in an environmental point of view. It is highly recommend to use as a decision making tool. In order to achieve suitable strategies, the combination of a flexible energy generation provided by biogas plants, a secure production process and the maximization of the environmental benefits can be obtained by the combination of process modelling and LCA approaches. For this reason, this study focuses on the biogas plant which flexibly generates required energy from the co-digestion of maize, grass and cattle manure, while emitting the lowest amount of GHG´s. To achieve this goal AMOCO model was combined with LCA. The program was structured in Matlab to simulate any biogas process based on the AMOCO model and combined with the equations necessary to obtain climate change, acidification and eutrophication potentials of the whole production system based on ReCiPe midpoint v.1.06 methodology. Developed simulation was optimized based on real data from operating biogas plants and existing literature research. The results prove that AMOCO model can successfully imitate the system behavior of biogas plants and the necessary time required for the process to adapt in order to generate demanded energy from available feedstock. Combination with LCA approach provided opportunity to keep the resulting emissions from operation at the lowest possible level. This would allow for a prediction of the process, when the feedstock utilization supports the establishment of closed material circles within a smart bio-production grid – under the constraint of minimal drawbacks for the environment and maximal sustainability.

Keywords: AMOCO model, GHG emissions, life cycle assessment, modelling

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2543 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Effects and What Answers?

Authors: Abdoulahad Allamine

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate variability on agriculture and food security in 43 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. We use for this purpose the data from BADC bases, UNCTAD, and WDI FAOSTAT to estimate a VAR model on panel data. The sample is divided into three (03) agro-climatic zones, more explicitly the equatorial zone, the Sahel region and the semi-arid zone. This allows to highlight the differential impacts sustained by countries and appropriate responses to each group of countries. The results show that the sharp fluctuations in the volume of rainfall negatively affect agriculture and food security of countries in the equatorial zone, with heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the Sahel region. However, countries with low temperatures and low rainfall are the least affected. The hedging policies against the risks of climate variability must be more active in the first two groups of countries. On this basis and in general, we recommend integration of agricultural policies between countries is done to reduce the effects of climate variability on agriculture and food security. It would be logical to encourage regional and international closer collaboration on the development and dissemination of improved varieties, ecological intensification, and management of biotic and abiotic stresses facing these climate variability to sustainably increase food production. Small farmers also need training in agricultural risk hedging techniques related to climate variations; this requires an increase in state budgets allocated to agriculture.

Keywords: agro-climatic zones, climate variability, food security, Sub-Saharan Africa, VAR on panel data

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2542 Properties Modification of Fiber Metal Laminates by Nanofillers

Authors: R. Eslami-Farsani, S. M. S. Mousavi Bafrouyi

Abstract:

During past decades, increasing demand of modified Fiber Metal Laminates (FMLs) has stimulated a strong trend towards the development of these structures. FMLs contain several thin layers of metal bonded with composite materials. Characteristics of FMLs such as low specific mass, high bearing strength, impact resistance, corrosion resistance and high fatigue life are attractive. Nowadays, increasing development can be observed to promote the properties of polymer-based composites by nanofillers. By dispersing strong, nanofillers in polymer matrix, modified composites can be developed and tailored to individual applications. On the other hand, the synergic effects of nanoparticles such as graphene and carbon nanotube can significantly improve the mechanical, electrical and thermal properties of nanocomposites. In present paper, the modifying of FMLs by nanofillers and the dispersing of nanoparticles in the polymers matrix are discussed. The evaluations have revealed that this approach is acceptable. Finally, a prospect is presented. This paper will lead to further work on these modified FML species.

Keywords: fiber metal laminate, nanofiller, polymer matrix, property modification

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2541 Evaluation of Real-Time Background Subtraction Technique for Moving Object Detection Using Fast-Independent Component Analysis

Authors: Naoum Abderrahmane, Boumehed Meriem, Alshaqaqi Belal

Abstract:

Background subtraction algorithm is a larger used technique for detecting moving objects in video surveillance to extract the foreground objects from a reference background image. There are many challenges to test a good background subtraction algorithm, like changes in illumination, dynamic background such as swinging leaves, rain, snow, and the changes in the background, for example, moving and stopping of vehicles. In this paper, we propose an efficient and accurate background subtraction method for moving object detection in video surveillance. The main idea is to use a developed fast-independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm to separate background, noise, and foreground masks from an image sequence in practical environments. The fast-ICA algorithm is adapted and adjusted with a matrix calculation and searching for an optimum non-quadratic function to be faster and more robust. Moreover, in order to estimate the de-mixing matrix and the denoising de-mixing matrix parameters, we propose to convert all images to YCrCb color space, where the luma component Y (brightness of the color) gives suitable results. The proposed technique has been verified on the publicly available datasets CD net 2012 and CD net 2014, and experimental results show that our algorithm can detect competently and accurately moving objects in challenging conditions compared to other methods in the literature in terms of quantitative and qualitative evaluations with real-time frame rate.

Keywords: background subtraction, moving object detection, fast-ICA, de-mixing matrix

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2540 Parallel Self Organizing Neural Network Based Estimation of Archie’s Parameters and Water Saturation in Sandstone Reservoir

Authors: G. M. Hamada, A. A. Al-Gathe, A. M. Al-Khudafi

Abstract:

Determination of water saturation in sandstone is a vital question to determine the initial oil or gas in place in reservoir rocks. Water saturation determination using electrical measurements is mainly on Archie’s formula. Consequently accuracy of Archie’s formula parameters affects water saturation values rigorously. Determination of Archie’s parameters a, m, and n is proceeded by three conventional techniques, Core Archie-Parameter Estimation (CAPE) and 3-D. This work introduces the hybrid system of parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) targeting accepted values of Archie’s parameters and, consequently, reliable water saturation values. This work focuses on Archie’s parameters determination techniques; conventional technique, CAPE technique, and 3-D technique, and then the calculation of water saturation using current. Using the same data, a hybrid parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) algorithm is used to estimate Archie’s parameters and predict water saturation. Results have shown that estimated Arche’s parameters m, a, and n are highly accepted with statistical analysis, indicating that the PSONN model has a lower statistical error and higher correlation coefficient. This study was conducted using a high number of measurement points for 144 core plugs from a sandstone reservoir. PSONN algorithm can provide reliable water saturation values, and it can supplement or even replace the conventional techniques to determine Archie’s parameters and thereby calculate water saturation profiles.

Keywords: water saturation, Archie’s parameters, artificial intelligence, PSONN, sandstone reservoir

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2539 Variability in Saturation Flow and Traffic Performance at Urban Signalized Intersection

Authors: P. N. Salini, B. Anish Kini, R. Ashalatha

Abstract:

At signalized intersections with heterogeneous traffic, the percentage share of different vehicle categories have a bearing on the inter-vehicle space utilization, which eventually impacts the saturation flow. This paper analyzed the impact of the percentage share of various vehicle categories in the traffic stream on the saturation flow at signalized intersections by video graphing major intersections with varying geometry in Kerala, India. It was found that as the percentage share of two-wheelers increases, the saturation flow at signalized intersections increases and vice-versa for the percentage share of cars. The effect of bus blockage and parking maneuvers on the saturation flow were also studied. As the distance of bus blockage increases from the stop line, the effect on the saturation flow decreases, while with more buses stopping at the same bus stop, the saturation flow reduces further. The study revealed that with higher kerbside parking maneuvers on the upstream, the saturation flow reduces, and with an increase in the distance of the parking maneuver from the stop line, the effect on the saturation flow decreases. The adjustment factors for bus blockage due to bus stops within 75m downstream and parking maneuvers within 75m upstream of the intersection have been established for mixed traffic conditions. These adjustment factors could empower the urban planners, enforcement personnel and decision-makers to estimate the reduction in the capacity of signalized intersections for suggesting improvements in the form of parking restrictions/ bus stop relocation for existing intersections or make design changes for planned intersections.

Keywords: signalized intersection, saturation flow, adjustment factors, capacity

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2538 Influence of Radio Frequency Identification Technology at Cost of Supply Chain as a Driver for the Generation of Competitive Advantage

Authors: Mona Baniahmadi, Saied Haghanifar

Abstract:

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is regarded as a promising technology for the optimization of supply chain processes since it improves manufacturing and retail operations from forecasting demand for planning, managing inventory, and distribution. This study precisely aims at learning to know the RFID technology and at explaining how it can concretely be used for supply chain management and how it can help improving it in the case of Hejrat Company which is located in Iran and works on the distribution of medical drugs and cosmetics. This study uses some statistical analysis to calculate the expected benefits of an integrated RFID system on supply chain obtained through competitive advantages increases with decreasing cost factor. The study investigates how the cost of storage process, labor cost, the cost of missing goods, inventory management optimization, on-time delivery, order cost, lost sales and supply process optimization affect the performance of the integrated RFID supply chain regarding cost factors and provides a competitive advantage.

Keywords: cost, competitive advantage, radio frequency identification, supply chain

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2537 Assessing the Effects of Land Use Spatial Structure on Urban Heat Island Using New Launched Remote Sensing in Shenzhen, China

Authors: Kai Liua, Hongbo Sua, Weimin Wangb, Hong Liangb

Abstract:

Urban heat island (UHI) has attracted attention around the world since they profoundly affect human life and climatological. Better understanding the effects of landscape pattern on UHI is crucial for improving the ecological security and sustainability of cities. This study aims to investigate how landscape composition and configuration would affect UHI in Shenzhen, China, based on the analysis of land surface temperature (LST) in relation landscape metrics, mainly with the aid of three new satellite sensors launched by China. HJ-1B satellite system was utilized to estimate surface temperature and comprehensively explore the urban thermal spatial pattern. The landscape metrics of the high spatial resolution remote sensing satellites (GF-1 and ZY-3) were compared and analyzed to validate the performance of the new launched satellite sensors. Results show that the mean LST is correlated with main landscape metrics involving class-based metrics and landscape-based metrics, suggesting that the landscape composition and the spatial configuration both influence UHI. These relationships also reveal that urban green has a significant effect in mitigating UHI in Shenzhen due to its homogeneous spatial distribution and large spatial extent. Overall, our study not only confirm the applicability and effectiveness of the HJ-1B, GF-1 and ZY-3 satellite system for studying UHI but also reveal the impacts of the urban spatial structure on UHI, which is meaningful for the planning and management of the urban environment.

Keywords: urban heat island, Shenzhen, new remote sensing sensor, remote sensing satellites

Procedia PDF Downloads 392
2536 The Military and Motherhood: Identity and Role Expectation within Two Greedy Institutions

Authors: Maureen Montalban

Abstract:

The military is a predominantly male-dominated organisation that has entrenched hierarchical and patriarchal norms. Since 1975, women have been allowed to continue active service in the Australian Defence Force during pregnancy and after the birth of a child; prior to this time, pregnancy was grounds for automatic termination. The military and family, as institutions, make great demands on individuals with respect to their commitment, loyalty, time and energy. This research explores what it means to serve in the Australian Army as a woman through a gender lens, overlaid during a specific time period of their service; that is, during pregnancy, birth, and being a mother. It investigates the external demands faced by servicewomen who are mothers, whether it be from society, the Army, their teammates, their partners, or their children; and how they internally make sense of that with respect to their own identity and role as a mother, servicewoman, partner and as an individual. It also seeks to uncover how Australian Army servicewomen who are also mothers attempt to manage the dilemma of serving two greedy institutions when both expect and demand so much and whether this is, in fact, an impossible dilemma.

Keywords: women's health, gender studies, military culture, identity

Procedia PDF Downloads 89