Search results for: technological risk

Authors: Seyed Sajjad Habibi

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The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of global financial crises and corporate financial crisis on tax evasion of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, panel data in the periods of financial crisis period (2007 to 2012) and without a financial crisis (2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, and 2015) was analyzed using multivariate linear regression. The results indicate a significant relationship between the corporate financial crisis (bankruptcy risk) and tax evasion in the global financial crisis period. The results also showed a significant relationship between the corporate bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period with no global financial crisis. A significant difference was found between the bankruptcy risk and tax evasion in the period of the global financial crisis and that with no financial crisis so that tax evasion increased in the financial crisis period.

Keywords: global financial crisis, corporate financial crisis, bankruptcy risk, tax evasion risk, emerging markets

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Authors: Yael Dubinsky, Orit Hazzan

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There is a constant need for hi-tech innovation to be decentralized to peripheral regions. This work describes how we applied design science research (DSR) principles to define what we refer to as the Sea of Galilee (SoG) method. The goal of the SoG method is to harness existing and new technological initiatives in peripheral regions to create a socio-technological network that can initiate and maintain hi-tech activities. The SoG method consists of a set of principles, a stakeholder network, and actual hi-tech business initiatives, including their infrastructure and practices. The three cycles of DSR, the Relevance, Design, and Rigor cycles, layout a research framework to sharpen the requirements, collect data from case studies, and iteratively refine the SoG method based on the existing knowledge base. We propose that the SoG method can be deployed by regional authorities that wish to be considered smart regions (an extension of the notion of smart cities).

Keywords: design science research, socio-technological initiatives, Sea of Galilee method, periphery stakeholder network, hi-tech initiatieves

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Authors: Negar Ganjouhaghighi, Amirali Dolatshahi

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The origin of most risks of a mega project usually takes place in the phases before closing the contract. As a practical point of view, using project risk management techniques for preparing a proposal is not a total solution for managing the risks of a contract. The objective of this paper is to cover all those activities associated with risk management of a mega project sale’s processes; from entrance to a new market to awarding activities and the review of contract performance. In this study, the risk management happens in six consecutive steps that are divided into three distinct but interdependent phases upstream of the award of the contract: pre-tendering, tendering and closing. In the first step, by preparing standard market risk report, risks of the new market are identified. The next step is the bid or no bid decision making based on the previous gathered data. During the next three steps in tendering phase, project risk management techniques are applied for determining how much contingency reserve must be added or reduced to the estimated cost in order to put the residual risk to an acceptable level. Finally, the last step which happens in closing phase would be an overview of the project risks and final clarification of residual risks. The sales experience of more than 20,000 MW turn-key power plant projects alongside this framework, are used to develop a software that assists the sales team to have a better project risk management.

Keywords: project marketing, risk management, tendering, project management, turn-key projects

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: Tamika Gordon

Abstract:

As technology continues to progress every second, educational institutions attempt to stay abreast of the latest developments through the acquisition of technological devices. Within schools, soft and hard technologies have assisted with reaching more students and expedient communication. As schools continue to grow, the need for simultaneous communication and efficient feedback has grown, and technology has allowed for these avenues to be explored and incorporated within a variety of daily operations. With the rapid inclusion of technology comes the potential for less face-to-face interactions among stakeholders. Although technology plays an integral role in education, the elements of both soft and hard technological devices must be proportionally utilized and coexist for the overall advancement and longevity of organizations. Over 20 articles were referenced to obtain a multitude of views on technology reflecting effects for students and teachers. Throughout this literature review, the effects of technology in the workplace will be discussed including views of current researchers, pros and cons surrounding technological inclusion, and implications for future research and further consideration. Upon the completion of the literature review, the benefits and necessity of technology remained high, however, low availability of resources, limited exposure to technological devices, and decreasing soft skills remained high as well. Recommendations are made for proportionate balances of technology and face-to-face interactions in order to minimize societal, educational, and organizational gaps.

Keywords: communication, devices, education, organizations, technology

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Ireneusz Majsterek, Karolina Przybylowska, Lukasz Dziki, Adam Dziki, Jacek Kabzinski

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Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the deadliest cancers. Every year we see an increase in the number of cases, and in spite of intensive research etiology of the disease remains unknown. For many years, researchers are seeking to associate genetic factors with an increased risk of CRC, so far it has proved to be a compelling link between the MMR system of DNA repair and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancers (HNPCC). Currently, research is focused on finding the relationship between the remaining DNA repair systems and an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between gene polymorphisms Ser835Ser of XPF gene and Gly23Ala of XPA gene–elements of NER DNA repair system, and modulation of the risk of colorectal cancer in the Polish population. Determination of the molecular basis of carcinogenesis process and predicting increased risk will allow qualifying patients to increased risk group and including them in preventive program. We used blood collected from 110 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer. The control group consisted of equal number of healthy people. Genotyping was performed by TaqMan method. The obtained results indicate that the genotype 23Gly/Ala of XPA gene is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, while 23Ala/Ala as well as TCT allele of Ser835Ser of XPF gene may reduce the risk of CRC.

Keywords: NER, colorectal cancer, XPA, XPF, polymorphisms

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment

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Authors: Mohamed Hamada Abdelkader Fayed

Abstract:

Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a screening test to exclude AAS. Methods: We conducted research for the studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD- RS)+ D-dimer to exclude the diagnosis of AAS, We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane of Trials up to 31 December 2020. Results: We identified 3 studies using (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a diagnostic tool for AAS, involving 3261 patients were AAS was diagnosed in 559(17.14%) patients. Overall results showed that the pooled sensitivities were 97.6 (95% CI 0.95.6, 99.6) at (ADD-RS)≤1(low risk group) with D-dimer and 97.4(95% CI 0.95.4,, 99.4) at (ADD-RS)>1(High risk group) with D-dimer., the failure rate was 0.48% at low risk group and 4.3% at high risk group respectively. Conclusions: (ADD-RS) with D-dimer was a useful screening test with high sensitivity to exclude Acute Aortic Syndrome.

Keywords: aortic dissection detection risk score, D-dimer, acute aortic syndrome, diagnostic accuracy

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Abderrahmen Aloulou, Younes Boujelbene

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The current paper displays a new method of extracting information content from options prices by eliminating biases caused by daily variation of contract maturity. Based on Kernel regression tool, this non-parametric technique serves to obtain a spectrum of interpolated options with constant maturity horizons from negotiated optional contracts on the S&P TSX 60 index. This method makes it plausible to compare daily risk neutral densities from which extracting time continuous indicators allows the detection traders attitudes’ evolution, such as, belief homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme Risk Perception. Our findings indicate that the applied method contribute to develop effective trading strategies and to adjust monetary policies through controlling trader’s reactions to economic and monetary news.

Keywords: risk neutral densities, kernel, constant maturity horizons, homogeneity, asymmetry and extreme risk perception

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Authors: Juraj Camaj, Anna Dolinayova, Jana Lalinska, Miroslav Bariak

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Planning of infrastructure and processes in logistic center within the frame of various kinds of logistic hubs and technological activities in them represent quite complex problem. The main goal is to design appropriate layout, which enables to realize expected operation on the desired levels. The simulation software represents progressive contemporary experimental technique, which can support complex processes of infrastructure planning and all of activities on it. It means that simulation experiments, reflecting various planned infrastructure variants, investigate and verify their eligibilities in relation with corresponding expected operation. The inducted approach enables to make qualified decisions about infrastructure investments or measures, which derive benefit from simulation-based verifications. The paper represents simulation software for simulation infrastructural layout and technological activities in marshalling yard, intermodal terminal, warehouse and combination between them as the parts of logistic center.

Keywords: marshalling yard, intermodal terminal, warehouse, transport technology, simulation

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Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

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Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: information system, risk, control, FMECA method

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Authors: Asma Moomal, Maslin Masrom

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The literature has identified that the competition among the business firms has been intensified due to the change in operating environment such as; knowledge diffusion, amount of R&D investments, and the adoption of technological innovation. Correspondingly, the E-business has potential to add a higher value to business and consumers in developed countries than in developing countries. However, the technological innovation (such as e-readiness) also considered as the major influential element on the firms competitiveness and development, Yet most of the developing countries including Pakistan failed to reap the benefits offered by modern information and communication technologies adoption (e-readiness), e-business and other innovative technologies. Thus, this paper reviewed the relevant literature in order to examine the barriers to the adoption of e-readiness and e-business in the organizations of Pakistan. The data collection technique used in this study was done through the secondary data resources (i.e. the existing literature analysis). The result of the study reveals that the most of the organizations of Pakistan like other developing countries are lagging behind in terms of adoption of e-readiness and e-business as compared to the developed countries of the world.

Keywords: e-readiness, e-business, potential, technological innovation

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

Abstract:

There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Radim Farana, Bogdan Walek, Michal Janosek, Jaroslav Zacek

Abstract:

This paper presents the advantages of fuzzy control use in technological processes control. The paper presents a real application of the Linguistic Fuzzy-Logic Control, developed at the University of Ostrava for the control of physical models in the Intelligent Systems Laboratory. The paper presents an example of a sensitive non-linear model, such as a magnetic levitation model and obtained results which show how modern information technologies can help to solve actual technical problems. A special method based on the LFLC controller with partial components is presented in this paper followed by the method of automatic context change, which is very helpful to achieve more accurate control results. The main advantage of the used system is its robustness in changing conditions demonstrated by comparing with conventional PID controller. This technology and real models are also used as a background for problem-oriented teaching, realized at the department for master students and their collaborative as well as individual final projects.

Keywords: control, fuzzy logic, sensitive system, technological proves

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Authors: Anne Theresa Eidhoff, Sarah E. Stief, Markus Voeth, Sarah Gundlach

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With digitalization increasingly changing the rules of competition, firms face the need to adapt and assimilate digital technologies in order to remain competitive. Firms can choose from various possibilities to integrate digital technologies including the option to embed digital technologies aiming to innovate products or to develop digital products. However, the question of which specific factors influence a firm’s decision to pursue digital product innovation remains unanswered in research. By adopting the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE)-framework we have designed a qualitative exploratory study including eleven German practitioners to investigate relevant contingency factors. Our results indicate that the most critical factors for a company’s decision to pursue digital product innovation can be found in the technological and environmental dimensions, namely customers, competitive pressure, technological change, as well as digitalization fit. 

Keywords: digital innovation, digitalization, product innovation, TOE-framework

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Heesu Kim

Abstract:

This paper determines the varieties of state roles played in East Asia’s telecommunication market, regarding broadband industry. Technological capacity and the relationship between state and market affect the varieties of state role. In explaining the state’s engagement in the market, technology has always been considered as a necessary and sufficient condition. However technology variable has been useful in only explaining the extent of state’s involvement. This paper contributes by bringing in the political-economic factor, which is the relationship between state and market. This factor aids in distinguishing the varieties of state role played in emerging industries. Interaction between these two variables distinguishes 4 types of state roles played in the broadband industry. These roles are distinguished and characterized by the intensity of state’s intervention and the existence of technological capacity. This paper classifies four types of state role through the case of Singapore, China, Taiwan and Korea’s broadband industrial policy.

Keywords: East Asia, entrpreneurial state, industrial policy, regulatory state, technological capacity

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Marcial Blondet, Malena Serrano, Álvaro Rubiños, Elin Mattsson

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In Peru, there are more than two million houses made of adobe (sun dried mud bricks) or rammed earth (35% of the total houses), in which almost 9 million people live, mainly because they cannot afford to purchase industrialized construction materials. Although adobe houses are cheap to build and thermally comfortable, their seismic performance is very poor, and they usually suffer significant damage or collapse with tragic loss of life. Therefore, over the years, researchers at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru and other institutions have developed many reinforcement techniques as an effort to improve the structural safety of earthen houses located in seismic areas. However, most rural communities live under unacceptable seismic risk conditions because these techniques have not been adopted massively, mainly due to high cost and lack of diffusion. The nylon rope mesh reinforcement technique is simple and low-cost, and two technological transference tools have been developed to diffuse it among rural communities: 1) Scale seismic simulations using a portable shaking table have been designed to prove its effectiveness to protect adobe houses; 2) A step-by-step illustrated construction manual has been developed to guide the complete building process of a nylon rope mesh reinforced adobe house. As a study case, it was selected the district of Pullo: a small rural community in the Peruvian Andes where more than 80% of its inhabitants live in adobe houses and more than 60% are considered to live in poverty or extreme poverty conditions. The research team carried out a one-day workshop in May 2015 and a two-day workshop in September 2015. Results were positive: First, the nylon rope mesh reinforcement procedure was proven simple enough to be replicated by adults, both young and seniors, and participants handled ropes and knots easily as they use them for daily livestock activity. In addition, nylon ropes were proven highly available in the study area as they were found at two local stores in variety of color and size.. Second, the portable shaking table demonstration successfully showed the effectiveness of the nylon rope mesh reinforcement and generated interest on learning about it. On the first workshop, more than 70% of the participants were willing to formally subscribe and sign up for practical training lessons. On the second workshop, more than 80% of the participants returned the second day to receive introductory practical training. Third, community members found illustrations on the construction manual simple and friendly but the roof system illustrations led to misinterpretation so they were improved. The technological transfer tools developed in this project can be used to train rural dwellers on earthquake-resistant self-construction with adobe, which is still very common in the Peruvian Andes. This approach would allow community members to develop skills and capacities to improve safety of their households on their own, thus, mitigating their high seismic risk and preventing tragic losses. Furthermore, proper training in earthquake-resistant self-construction with adobe would prevent rural dwellers from depending on external aid after an earthquake and become agents of their own development.

Keywords: adobe, Peruvian Andes, safe housing, technological transference

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Authors: Luca Martignoni

Abstract:

The increasing usage of clinical decision support systems in healthcare and the demand for software that enables doctors to take informed decisions is changing everyday clinical practice. However, as technology advances not only are the benefits of technology growing, but so are the potential risks. A growing danger is the doctors’ over-reliance on the proposed decision of the clinical decision support system, leading towards deskilling and rash decisions by doctors. In that regard, identifying doctors' requirements for software and developing approaches to prevent technological over-reliance is of utmost importance. In this paper, we report the results of a design science research study, focusing on the requirements and design principles of ultrasound software. We conducted a total of 15 interviews with experts about poten-tial ultrasound software functions. Subsequently, we developed meta-requirements and design principles to design future clinical decision support systems efficiently and as free from the occur-rence of technological over-reliance as possible.

Keywords: clinical decision support systems, technological over-reliance, design principles, design science research

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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