Search results for: forward modeling

Authors: M. Hussaina, K. Mahboobb, S. Z. Ilyasa, S. Shaheena

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Plume dispersion modeling is a computational procedure to establish a relationship between emissions, meteorology, atmospheric concentrations, deposition and other factors. The emission characteristics (stack height, stack diameter, release velocity, heat contents, chemical and physical properties of the gases/particle released etc.), terrain (surface roughness, local topography, nearby buildings) and meteorology (wind speed, stability, mixing height, etc.) are required for the modeling of the plume dispersion and estimation of ground and air concentration. During the early phase of Fukushima accident, plume dispersion modeling and decisions were taken for the implementation of protective measures. A difference in estimated results and decisions made by different countries for taking protective actions created a concern in local and international community regarding the exact identification of the safe zone. The current study is focused to highlight the importance of accurate and exact weather data availability, scientific approach for decision making for taking urgent protective actions, compatible and harmonized approach for plume dispersion modeling during a nuclear emergency. As a case study, the influence of meteorological data on plume dispersion modeling and decision-making process has been performed.

Keywords: decision making process, radiation doses, nuclear emergency, meteorological implications

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Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar

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In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

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Authors: Dina Magdy Abdo, Ayat N. El-Shazly, Hamdy Maamoun Abdel-Ghafar, E. A. Abdel-Aal

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Forward osmosis (FO) is one of the important processes during the wastewater treatment system for environmental remediation and fresh water regeneration. Both Egypt and China are troubled by over millions of tons of wastewater every year, including domestic and industrial wastewater. However, traditional FO process in wastewater treatment usually suffers low efficiency and high energy consumption because of the continuously diluted draw solution. An additional concentration process is necessary to keep running of FO separation, causing energy waste. Based on the previous study on photothermal membrane, a sun-driven evaporation process is integrated into the draw solution side of FO system. During the sun-driven evaporation, not only the draw solution can be concentrated to maintain a stable and sustainable FO system, but fresh water can be directly separated for regeneration. Solar energy is the ultimate energy source of everything we have on Earth and is, without any doubt, the most renewable and sustainable energy source available to us. Additionally, the FO membrane process is rationally designed to limit the concentration polarization and fouling. The FO membrane’s structure and surface property will be further optimized by the adjustment of the doping ratio of controllable nano-materials, membrane formation conditions, and selection of functional groups. A novel kind of nano-composite functional separation membrane with bi-interception layers and high hydrophilicity will be developed for the application in wastewater treatment. So, herein we aim to design a new wastewater treatment system include forward osmosis with high-efficiency energy recovery via the integration of photothermal membrane.

Keywords: forword, membrane, solar, water treatment

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Authors: Ebrahim H. Kapeel, Ehab Safwat, Hossam Hendy, Ahmed M. Kamel, Yehia Z. Elhalwagy

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Motivated by the problem of the availability of high-fidelity flight simulation models for small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This paper focuses on the geometric-mass inertia modeling and the actuation system modeling for the small fixed-wing UAVs. The UAV geometric parameters for the body, wing, horizontal and vertical tail are physically measured. Pendulum experiment with high-grade sensors and data analysis using MATLAB is used to estimate the airplane moment of inertia (MOI) model. Finally, UAV’s actuation system is modeled by estimating each servo transfer function by using the system identification, which uses experimental measurement for input and output angles through using field-programmable gate array (FPGA). Experimental results for the designed models are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology. It also gives a very promising result to finalize the open-loop flight simulation model through modeling the propulsion system and the aerodynamic system.

Keywords: unmanned aerial vehicle, geometric-mass inertia model, system identification, Simulink

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

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Several meteorological parameters were used for the prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: recurrent neural networks, global solar radiation, multi-layer perceptron, gradient, root mean square error

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Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

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Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: modelling, optimization, rainfall-runoff relationship, empirical model, OCC

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Authors: Ronak Khosravi, Mahmood Abbasi Layegh, Siamak Haghipour, Avin Esmaili

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In this paper, a study on classification of musical woodwind instruments using a small set of features selected from a broad range of extracted ones by the sequential forward selection method was carried out. Firstly, we extract 42 features for each record in the music database of 402 sound files belonging to five different groups of Flutes (end blown and internal duct), Single –reed, Double –reed (exposed and capped), Triple reed and Quadruple reed. Then, the sequential forward selection method is adopted to choose the best feature set in order to achieve very high classification accuracy. Two different classification techniques of support vector machines and relevance vector machines have been tested out and an accuracy of up to 96% can be achieved by using 21 time, frequency and coefficient features and relevance vector machine with the Gaussian kernel function.

Keywords: coefficient features, relevance vector machines, spectral features, support vector machines, temporal features

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Authors: K. Thakkar, C. Ghenai

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study to (1) track energy consumption, production, and resource extraction, (2) track greenhouse gases emissions and (3) analyze emissions for local and regional air pollutions. The model was used in this study for short and long term energy and GHG emissions reduction analysis for the state of Florida. The integrated modeling methodology will help to evaluate the alternative energy scenarios and examine emissions-reduction strategies. The mitigation scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies. They consist of various demand and supply side scenarios. One of the GHG mitigation scenarios is crafted by taking into account the available renewable resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against ‘Business As Usual’ and ‘Florida State Policy’ scenario. Two more ‘integrated’ scenarios, (‘Electrification’ and ‘Efficiency and Lifestyle’) are crafted through combination of various mitigation scenarios to assess the cumulative impact of the reduction measures such as technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation.

Keywords: energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, integrated modeling approach, energy alternatives, and GHG emission reductions

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Authors: Mohamed Edokali, Robert Menzel, David Harbottle, Ali Hassanpour

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Forward osmosis (FO) process has stood out as an energy-efficient technology for water desalination and purification, although the practical application of FO for desalination still relies on RO-based Thin Film Composite (TFC) and Cellulose Triacetate (CTA) polymeric membranes which have a low performance. Recently, graphene oxide (GO) laminated membranes have been considered an ideal selection to overcome the bottleneck of the FO-polymeric membranes owing to their simple fabrication procedures, controllable thickness and pore size and high water permeability rates. However, the low stability of GO laminates in wet and harsh environments is still problematic. The recent developments of modified GO and hydrophobic reduced graphene oxide (rGO) membranes for FO desalination have demonstrated attempts to overcome the ongoing trade-off between desalination performance and stability, which is yet to be achieved prior to the practical implementation. In this study, acid-functionalized GO nanosheets cooperatively reduced and crosslinked by the hyperbranched polyethyleneimine (PEI) and polyethylene glycol (PEG) polymers, respectively, are applied for fabrication of the FO membrane, to enhance the membrane stability and performance, and compared with other functionalized rGO-FO membranes. PEI/PEG doped rGO membrane retained two compacted d-spacings (0.7 and 0.31 nm) compared to the acid-functionalized GO membrane alone (0.82 nm). Besides increasing the hydrophilicity, the coating layer of PEG onto the PEI-doped rGO membrane surface enhanced the structural integrity of the membrane chemically and mechanically. As a result of these synergetic effects, the PEI/PEG doped rGO membrane exhibited a water permeation of 7.7 LMH, salt rejection of 97.9 %, and reverse solute flux of 0.506 gMH at low flow rates in the FO desalination process.

Keywords: desalination, forward osmosis, membrane performance, polyethyleneimine, polyethylene glycol, reduced graphene oxide, stability

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Authors: H. Li, L. Ji, J. Su

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Forward osmosis is an emerging technology for separation and has great potential in the concentration of liquid products such as protein, pharmaceutical, and natural products. In pharmacy industry, one of the very tough talks is to concentrate the product in a gentle way since some of the key components may lose bioactivity when exposed to heating or pressurization. Therefore, forward osmosis (FO), which uses inherently existed osmosis pressure instead of externally applied hydraulic pressure, is attractive for pharmaceutical enrichments in a much efficient and energy-saving way. Recently, coordination complexes have been explored as the new class of draw solutes in FO processes due to their bulky configuration and excellent performance in terms of high water flux and low reverse solute flux. Among these coordination complexes, ferric citrate complex with lots of hydrophilic groups and ionic species which make them good solubility and high osmotic pressure in aqueous solution, as well as its low toxicity, has received much attention. However, the chemistry of ferric complexation by citrate is complicated, and disagreement prevails in the literature, especially for the structure of the ferric citrate. In this study, we investigated the chemical reaction with various molar ratio of iron and citrate. It was observed that the ferric citrate complex (Fe-CA2) with molar ratio of 1:1 for iron and citrate formed at the beginning of the reaction, then Fecit would convert to ferric citrate complex at the molar ratio of 1:2 with the proper excess of citrate in the base solution. The structures of the ferric citrate complexes synthesized were systematically characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), UV-vis spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Fe-CA2 solutions exhibit osmotic pressures more than twice of that for NaCl solutions at the same concentrations. Higher osmotic pressure means higher driving force, and this is preferable for the FO process. Fe-CA2 and NaCl draw solutions were prepared with the same osmotic pressure and used in FO process for BSA protein concentration. Within 180 min, BSA concentration was enriched from 0.2 to 0.27 L using Fe-CA draw solutions. However, it was only increased from 0.20 to 0.22 g/L using NaCl draw solutions. A reverse flux of 11 g/m²h was observed for NaCl draw solutes while it was only 0.1 g/m²h for Fe-CA2 draw solutes. It is safe to conclude that Fe-CA2 is much better than NaCl as draw solute and it is suitable for the enrichment of liquid product.

Keywords: draw solutes, ferric citrate complex, forward osmosis, protein enrichment

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Authors: Erisasadat Sahebzamani, Núria Forcada, Francisco Lendinez

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Global climate change has become increasingly problematic over the past few decades. The construction industry has contributed to greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. Considering these issues and the high demand for materials in the construction industry, Circular Economy (CE) is considered necessary to keep materials in the loop and extend their useful lives. By providing tangible benefits, Construction 4.0 facilitates the adoption of CE by reducing waste, updating standard work, sharing knowledge, and increasing transparency and stability. This study aims to present a framework for integrating CE and digital tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Virtual Reality (VR) to examine the impact on the construction industry based on stakeholders' perspectives.

Keywords: circular economy, building information modeling, virtual reality, stakeholder engagement

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Authors: Fawzi Srairi, Abderrahmane Dib

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Recently, the desire for a self-powered micro and nanodevices has attracted a great interest of using sustainable energy sources. Further, the ultimate goal of nanogenerator is to harvest energy from the ambient environment in which a self-powered device based on these generators is needed. With the development of nanogenerator-based circuits design and optimization, the building of new device simulator is necessary for the study and the synthesis of electromechanical parameters of this type of models. In the present article, both numerical modeling and optimization of piezoelectric nanogenerator based on zinc oxide have been carried out. They aim to improve the electromechanical performances, robustness, and synthesis process for nanogenerator. The proposed model has been developed for a systematic study of the nanowire morphology parameters in stretching mode. In addition, heuristic optimization technique, namely, particle swarm optimization has been implemented for an analytic modeling and an optimization of nanogenerator-based process in stretching mode. Moreover, the obtained results have been tested and compared with conventional model where a good agreement has been obtained for excitation mode. The developed nanogenerator model can be generalized, extended and integrated into simulators devices to study nanogenerator-based circuits.

Keywords: electrical potential, heuristic algorithms, numerical modeling, nanogenerator

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, climate change, hydrological modeling, watershed

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Authors: Reginald Chikere Keke

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This paper examined leadership failure consequent on endemic corruption as being the bane of good governance in Nigeria since independence in 1960 and the way forward. Nigeria is lavishly gifted by nature of abundance in human and material resources to be harnessed a strategic, resolute, ingenious, and inventive leadership. For leadership to drive sustainable growth in society, it must be rooted in the cultural values of the people. This, however, is contrary in Nigeria owing to unscrupulous leadership miscarriage, corruption, and bad governance. Using the eclectic approach, the paper scrutinizes the issues of leadership, corruption, and governance to clearly show how bad leadership and governance have destroyed the national fabric and the way out of Nigeria's development quack mire. Furthermore, this paper examined the perplexing nature of corruption in Nigeria that has made it the only lucrative endeavor for politicians and their cronies, leading Nigeria to be regarded as the world's poverty capital. This paper advocate that Nigerians and the international community must endeavor to enshrine effective leadership and good governance through strong institutions, laws, and individuals who have zero tolerance for corruption and mediocrity in the polity. Only then will the fatherland of everyone’s dreams will be realized, and the labors of our hero’s past will not be in vain.

Keywords: corruption, leadership, governance, Nigeria

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Authors: Min Zhou, Kaixuan Lin, Yaping Huang

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In this paper, the industrial space of metropolitan area in Wuhan is taken as a sample. First of all, it puts forward that the structure of service economy, circle gradient relocation and high degree of regional collaboration are the rules of industrial spatial development in the modern world cities. Secondly, using the economic statistics and land use vector data (1993, 2004, 2010, and 2013) of Wuhan, it analyzes the present situation of industry development and the characteristics of industrial space layout from three aspects of the industrial economic structure, industrial layout, and industrial regional synergy. Then, based on the industrial development regularity of world cities, it puts forward to construct the industrial spatial level of ‘complex industrial concentration area + modular industry unit’ and the industrial spatial structure of ‘13525’. Finally, it comes up with the optimization tactics of the industrial space’s transformation in the future under the background of new economic era.

Keywords: big city of metropolitan area, industrial space, characteristics, layout, strategy

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Authors: M. Fathi, Z. Farhaninejad, M. Shahedi, M. Sadeghi

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Drying is one of the oldest preservation methods for food and agriculture products. Appropriate control of operation can be obtained by modeling. Limitation of continues models for complex boundary condition and non-regular geometries leading to appearance of discrete novel methods such as cellular automata, which provides a platform for obtaining fast predictions by rule-based mathematics. In this research a one D dimensional CA was used for simulating thin layer drying of banana. Banana slices were dried with a convectional air dryer and experimental data were recorded for validating of final model. The model was programmed by MATLAB, run for 70000 iterations and von-Neumann neighborhood. The validation results showed a good accordance between experimental and predicted data (R=0.99). Cellular automata are capable to reproduce the expected pattern of drying and have a powerful potential for solving physical problems with reasonable accuracy and low calculating resources.

Keywords: banana, cellular automata, drying, modeling

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Authors: S. M. Rifat, André L. Marchildon, Mark F. Tachie

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Experiments were performed to investigate the effects of roughness on the reattachment and redevelopment regions over a 12 mm forward facing step (FFS) in an open channel flow. The experiments were performed over an upstream smooth wall and a smooth FFS, an upstream wall coated with sandpaper 36 grit and a smooth FFS and an upstream rough wall produced from sandpaper 36 grit and a FFS coated with sandpaper 36 grit. To investigate only the wall roughness effects, Reynolds number, Froude number, aspect ratio and blockage ratio were kept constant. Upstream profiles showed reduced streamwise mean velocities close to the rough wall compared to the smooth wall, but the turbulence level was increased by upstream wall roughness. The reattachment length for the smooth-smooth wall experiment was 1.78h; however, when it is replaced with rough-smooth wall the reattachment length decreased to 1.53h. It was observed that the upstream roughness increased the physical size of contours of maximum turbulence level; however, the downstream roughness decreased both the size and magnitude of contours in the vicinity of the leading edge of the step. Quadrant analysis was performed to investigate the dominant Reynolds shear stress contribution in the recirculation region. The Reynolds shear stress and turbulent kinetic energy profiles after the reattachment showed slower recovery compared to the streamwise mean velocity, however all the profiles fairly collapse on their corresponding upstream profiles at x/h = 60. It was concluded that to obtain a complete collapse several more streamwise distances would be required.

Keywords: forward facing step, open channel, separated and reattached turbulent flows, wall roughness

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Authors: Leal Leonardo, Pires Carlos Augusto de Moraes, Casiraghi Magela

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In this work were realized the modeling and simulation of the catalytic reformer process, of ample form, considering all the equipment that influence the operation performance. Considered it a semi-regenerative reformer, with four reactors in series intercalated with four furnaces, two heat exchanges, one product separator and one recycle compressor. A simplified reactional system was considered, involving only ten chemical compounds related through five reactions. The considered process was the applied to aromatics production (benzene, toluene, and xylene). The models developed to diverse equipment were interconnecting in a simulator that consists of a computer program elaborate in FORTRAN 77. The simulation of the global model representative of reformer unity achieved results that are compatibles with the literature ones. It was then possible to study the effects of operational variables in the products concentration and in the performance of the unity equipment.

Keywords: catalytic reforming, modeling, simulation, petrochemical engineering

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Authors: Qurratulain Faheem

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The human body often serves as a reference point to analyse the notions of self and society. Situating on Merleau-Ponty and Bourdieu theories of embodiments, this research explores the notions around the human body and its influence on the ethical considerations in regards to organ transplantation among the Muslim communities in Pakistan. The context of Pakistan makes an intriguing case study as cadaveric organ transplantation is not in practise. Whereas living organ transplantation is commonly is practised between family membersonly. These contradictory practices apparently rests on the ideologies around the human body and religious beliefs as well the personal judgements and authority of healthcare professionals. This research is a year-long ethnographic study carried out as part of doctoral studies. An anthropological approach towards organ transplantation in Pakistan brought forward various socio-cultural notions around the human body and selfhood that serve as a framework around biomedical ethical issues in various societies. Further, it surface the contradictions and issues associated with organ transplantation that makes it a dilemma situated in a nexus of various socio-cultural and political factors rather seeing it as an isolated health concern. This research is a novel study on the subject of organ transplantation in the context of Pakistan but also put forward ethnographic data that could serve as a reference in other religious societies. Further, the ethnographic data bring forward experiences and stories of organ receivers, organ donors, religious leaders, healthcare professionals, and the general public, which aspire to encourage biomedical ethicists and social-scientists to consider ethnography as a research methodology and rely upon people’s lived experiences while establishing policies and practices around biomedical ethical issues.

Keywords: organ transplantation, ethics, pakistan, gender, islam, muslims, living organ donation

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Authors: Ridhish Kumar, Sudeep Nadukkandy, Anirban Roy

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The development of reverse osmosis happened in 1960. Along the years this technique has been widely accepted all over the world for varied applications ranging from seawater desalination to municipal water treatment. Forward osmosis (FO) is one of the foremost technologies for low energy consuming solutions for water purification. In this study, we have carried out a detailed analysis on selection, design, and pricing for a prototype of potable water system for purifying water in emergency situations. The portable and light purification system is envisaged to be driven by FO. This pouch will help to serve as an emergency water filtration device. The current effort employs a model to understand the interplay of permeability and area on the rate of purification of water from any impure source/brackish water. The draw solution for the FO pouch is considered to be a combination of salt and sugar such that dilution of the same would result in an oral rehydration solution (ORS) which is a boon for dehydrated patients. However, the effort takes an extra step to actually estimate the cost and pricing of designing such a prototype. While the mathematical model yields the best membrane (compositions are taken from literature) combination in terms of permeability and area, the pricing takes into account the feasibility of such a solution to be made available as a retail item. The product is envisaged to be a market competitor for packaged drinking water and ORS combination (costing around $0.5 combined) and thus, to be feasible has to be priced around the same range with greater margins in order to have a better distribution. Thus a proper business plan and production of the same has been formulated in order to be a feasible solution for unprecedented calamities and emergency situations.

Keywords: forward osmosis, water treatment, oral rehydration solution, prototype

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Authors: Hechmi Saidi, Noureddine Hamdi

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The performance of Decode and Forward (DF) multihop Free Space Optical ( FSO) scheme deploying Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) configuration under Gamma-Gamma (GG) statistical distribution, that adopts M-ary Pulse Position Modulation (MPPM) coding, is investigated. We have extracted exact and estimated values of Symbol-Error Rates (SERs) respectively. A closed form formula related to the Probability Density Function (PDF) is expressed for our designed system. Thanks to the use of DF multihop MIMO FSO configuration and MPPM signaling, atmospheric turbulence is combatted; hence the transmitted signal quality is improved.

Keywords: free space optical, multiple input multiple output, M-ary pulse position modulation, multihop, decode and forward, symbol error rate, gamma-gamma channel

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Authors: B. S.Akhmetov, S. T. Akhmetova, D. N. Nadeyev, V. Yu. Yegorov, V. V. Smogoonov

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Estimated probabilities of errors of the first and second kind for nonideal biometrics-neural transducers 256 outputs, the construction of nomograms based error probability of 'own' and 'alien' from the mathematical expectation and standard deviation of the normalized measures Hamming.

Keywords: modeling, errors, probability, biometrics, neural network, authentication

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Zainal Abu Zatim, Hafizah Omar Zaki

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Substantial research had been done on refining employee’s customer service performance. Thus, there were very limited empirical studies that are engage in an inter-organizational climate study in assessing employee’s customer service performance. With the current economic situation as well as emerging needs and requirements, all businesses either from public or private sector serving customers put greater attention on fulfilling those needs and requirements. In this state of affairs, the act of polishing its employees’ skills, knowledge, teamwork and passion is very important in ensuring better performance deliverance. A study conducted in one of the telecommunication service provider company in Malaysia had been done to test its inter-organizational climate study. The Internal Climate Study was done to benchmark opinions and perceptions of its employees. The study had provided baseline information about perceptions that exist in the internal environment and ways forward to improve customer service performance. The approach used is through the use of focus group and qualitative interview.

Keywords: employees, Customer Service Performance, inter-organizational climate study, public and private sector

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Authors: Maryam Safrai, Tewfik Mahdi

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This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms.

Keywords: flood modeling, HEC-RAS, model comparison, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic flooded area, SRH-2D, WMS

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Authors: Neslihan Sahin Celik, Ali Eraslan

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As a result of PISA (Program for International Student Assessments) survey that tests how well students can apply the knowledge and skills they have learned at school to real-life challenges, the new and redesigned mathematics education programs in many countries emphasize the necessity for the students to face complex and multifaceted problem situations and gain experience in this sense allowing them to develop new skills and mathematical thinking to prepare them for their future life after school. At this point, mathematical models and modeling approaches can be utilized in the analysis of complex problems which represent real-life situations in which students can actively participate. In particular, model eliciting activities that bring about situations which allow the students to create solutions to problems and which involve mathematical modeling must be used right from primary school years, allowing them to face such complex, real-life situations from early childhood period. A qualitative study was conducted in a university foundation primary school in the city center of a big province in 2013-2014 academic years. The participants were 4th grade students in a primary school. After a four-week preliminary study applied to a fourth-grade classroom, three students included in the focus group were selected using criterion sampling technique. A focus group of three students was videotaped as they worked on the Crime Problem. The conversation of the group was transcribed, examined with students’ written work and then analyzed through the lens of Blum and Ferri’s modeling processing cycle. The results showed that primary fourth-grade students can successfully work with model eliciting problem while they encounter some difficulties in the modeling processes. In particular, they developed new ideas based on different assumptions, identified the patterns among variables and established a variety of models. On the other hand, they had trouble focusing on problems and occasionally had breaks in the process.

Keywords: primary school, modeling, mathematical modeling, crime problem

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Authors: Mohamed Gomaa Mohamed

Abstract:

Background and purpose: Ideal posture involves a minimal amount of stress or strain on various body segments which are aligned and worked in harmony to protect the body from injury or progressive deformity. One of most common faulty posture encountered in clinical setting is forward head posture (FHP) that was considered one of the main predictors for neck pain. Furthermore, FHP may predispose to thoracic outlet syndrome, temporomandibular joint dysfunction, shoulder pain and headache. The large financial burden related to neck disorders management raises the need to improve the quality of assessment and rehabilitation of FHP. So, the purpose of the study is to compare between measurements of FHP as indicated with craniovertebral (CVA) and gaze angles assessed from dominant and non-dominant sides in football players who extensively use their dominant side and non-athletic subjects. Participants: Twenty-four subjects were divided into 12 football players and 12 non-athletic subjects. Methods: CVA and gaze angles were assessed through photogrammetric method. Photos were taken from dominant and non-dominant sides of the subjects while assuming standing position. Paired t-test was used to assess angles differences between dominant and non-dominant sides of the subjects. Since there were no statistical differences between CVA and gaze angles measured from dominant and non-dominant sides in each group, we pooled data together to become 24 measurements for each group (12 from dominant and 12 from non-dominant). Independent t-test was used to assess angles differences between football players and non-athletic subjects. Results: No significant differences were found between CVA and gaze angles measured from dominant and non-dominant sides of both groups (P>0.05). Also, there were no significant differences between CVA and gaze angles measured from football players and non-athletic subjects (P>0.05). Conclusion: FHP can be assessed from dominant or non-dominant sides interchangeably either in football players or non-athletic subjects. Furthermore, playing football has no impact on measurements of FHP when compared to non-athletic subjects.

Keywords: dominant side, forward head posture, football players, non-dominant side

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: David F. Nettleton, Christian Wasiak, Jonas Dorissen, David Gillen, Alexandr Tretyak, Elodie Bugnicourt, Alejandro Rosales

Abstract:

In this work, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two inline processes, pultrusion, and laser ablation, using machine learning techniques. The end product of the processes is the core of a medical guidewire, manufactured to comply with a user specification of diameter and flexibility. An ensemble approach is followed which requires training several models. Two state of the art machine learning algorithms are benchmarked: Kernel Recursive Least Squares (KRLS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The final objective is to build a precise digital model of the pultrusion and laser ablation process in order to calibrate the resulting diameter and flexibility of a medical guidewire, which is the end product while taking into account the friction on the forming die. The result is an ensemble of models, whose output is within a strict required tolerance and which covers the required range of diameter and flexibility of the guidewire end product. The modeling and automatic calibration of complex in-line industrial processes is a key aspect of the Industry 4.0 movement for cyber-physical systems.

Keywords: calibration, data modeling, industrial processes, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Mohd Zamri Che Wanik

Abstract:

This paper presents the management of the Fault Ride Through event within a Solar Farm during a grid fault. The modeling and simulation of a photovoltaic (PV) with battery energy storage connected to the power network will be described. The modeling approach and the study analysis performed are described. The model and operation scenarios are simulated using a digital simulator for different scenarios. The dynamic response of the system when subjected to sudden self-clearance temporary fault is presented. The capability of the PV system and battery storage riding through the power system fault and, at the same time, supporting the local grid by injecting fault current is demonstrated. For each case, the different control methods to achieve the objective of supporting the grid according to grid code requirements are presented and explained. The inverter modeling approach is presented and described.

Keywords: faut ride through, solar farm, grid code, power network

Procedia PDF Downloads 41

Authors: A. C. Bennis, F. Dumas, F. Ardhuin, B. Blanke

Abstract:

The mechanics of rip currents are complex, involving interactions between waves, currents, water levels and the bathymetry, that present particular challenges for numerical models. Here, the effects of a grid-spacing dependent horizontal mixing on the wave-current interactions are studied. Near the shore, wave rays diverge from channels towards bar crests because of refraction by topography and currents, in a way that depends on the rip current intensity which is itself modulated by the horizontal mixing. At low resolution with the grid-spacing dependent horizontal mixing, the wave motion is the same for both coupling modes because the wave deviation by the currents is weak. In high-resolution case, however, classical results are found with the stabilizing effect of the flow by feedback of waves on currents. Lastly, wave-current interactions and the horizontal mixing strongly affect the intensity of the three-dimensional rip velocity.

Keywords: numerical modeling, wave-current interactions, turbulence modeling, rip currents

Procedia PDF Downloads 458